the book investigates the ira killing of ulster unionist mp robert bradford in 1981. with me is mark davies, ceo at the strategy consultancy camberton. we picked out the telegraph, its headline is" gove tries to deflect cocaine row with desperate taunts at boris". just for those who don't know, the telegraph is very much in favour of borisjohnson. know, the telegraph is very much in favour of boris johnson. he know, the telegraph is very much in favour of borisjohnson. he writes for the telegraph, he had a column for the telegraph, he had a column for quite some time. he still does. 0k, he still does. what do you make of this front page. two very different takes, you're absolutely right, the telegraph has gone for boris not just on right, the telegraph has gone for boris notjust on the front page but all the way through the paper. there are comment pieces which basically support boris. owen paterson, bmp, has written a piece his tax—cut position, which is the strategy he

is putting forward, other than his brexit strategy. —— owen paterson, the mp. the times looks at it differently, saying that go this challenging johnson, you must stay and fight me this time. not the desperate taunts at the telegraph caesar does. the most amusing part of the telegraph today, i think, is if you look at the letters page. they are far more reflective of the conservative party membership. i think the letters page shows you, you will see that at the times as well, a number of people are looking to back boris and a harder brexit position. there are two camps within the conservative party. there is one which thinks brexit must be delivered by october 31, or that is the end of the conservative party. no matter what. there is another group that thinks the dangerous and promising an exit by that date. i think that the membership on the whole is in the former camp, and i think they are wrong. yes, so, that

is the issue, isn't it? that seems to sum it all up. michael gove was one who said, actually, october 31 is not set in stone in his mind. yet for borisjohnson, is not set in stone in his mind. yet for boris johnson, it absolutely is not set in stone in his mind. yet for borisjohnson, it absolutely is. and that is kind of how you can separate those who are running. and the times does that, doesn't it, to a degree? yes, they have this little graphic. it is useful. it lines up to ten candidates who are running, and it puts five of them in the no deal, no delay camp, and those who are in the renegotiate or consider an extension camp, but is really helpful, isn't it? the issue here is that the parliamentary arithmetic has not changed. parliament has made quite clear that it does not want no deal. the only way that it can stop it is to have a vote of no confidence in the government. so anybody looking at october 31 and saying, that is my deadline, they risk the fact that parliament will

vote for no confidence and bring down the government. the government does have a majority, a very small majority, if you include the dup, but that means that in theory you only need to conservatives who are not in favour of an ideal brexit to vote against the government for the government to fall. —— two conservatives. as has been proved recently in two elections, the european elections under the peterborough by—election, if the conservative party goes into an election with the brexit issue unresolved, the vote on the right will split and what happens is, the conservative share of the vote falls to about 10% and almost certainly you will get a left—leaning, probably coalition government coming in. so in the mind of conservative party members, what is the most important issue? is it winning a general election, or is it a successful exit from the european union? because many would argue, actually, when you are looking at who you are going to vote for, is it about the communication skills, is

it about the leader who can somehow fight off nigel farage? and the brexit party? and at the same time, tackle jeremy corbyn, brexit party? and at the same time, tacklejeremy corbyn, the leader of the labor party. those two issues are conflated. the two camps exceed brexit as a way of either delivering 01’ brexit as a way of either delivering or destroying the second objective. —— see brexit. so the split is a very, very distinct one, and we are talking about the existential threats to the party. —— threat. i think the members will go to somebody who sets a hard deadline, almost certainly. and i think they are heading for disaster as a result. why? because i think the government will be voted down. there are enough people to the left of the conservative party, and on the left of the conservative party, who will vote against the government, even though they are aware that will bring down the government. there are people on the left of the conservative party who will say, my

political career is effectively over 110w political career is effectively over now anyway, and what is important to me is to stop an ideal brexit. people like dominic grieve, and he isn't alone. there are more than two of them, and there only needs to be two, with the parliamentary maths. you are a member of the conservative party, you are an entrepreneur, you run several companies. what impact will this have on the british economy, do you think? well, ifi am right, it will bring in a government led byjeremy corbyn and i don't know many people in business who think that's a good idea. all right, we shall move on. let's move onto the front page of the financial times. i wanted to discuss this, it is really interesting, what the us — china trade war means for vietnam. it has really positioned it as a place to be. vietnam is actually doing rather well as a consequence. dispatch the us and china. what does this article tell us? —— this spat between the us and china.

this article tell us? —— this spat between the us and chinam this article tell us? —— this spat between the us and china. it is difficult to say. what has happened in this trade war has only happened at the end of the first quarter. the first tariffs which came in were on steel. then there were tariffs on solar panels. you know, big—ticket things. they came in, first of all, injanuary and things. they came in, first of all, in january and then things. they came in, first of all, injanuary and then in march. and imports from vietnam increased by 40% in the first quarter. but the ta riffs 40% in the first quarter. but the tariffs which were things that actually come through vietnam only got introduced right at the end of the first quarter, so it isn't really clear whether that 40% boost was a result of this trade war. what is interesting about it is the way that they positioned themselves in geopolitical terms. because both vietnam and the united states are concerned about chinese power in the area. and vietnam is very clearly allying itself to the us in that fight. so by saying that you cannot relabel things coming through us, in

order to get around the tariffs, i think it is more of a political statement than it is an economic one. the trade surplus they were running with the united states in vietnam was already fairly significant. it was $40 billion a year last year, before any of this economic trade war came about. so i think it is more of a political story, and certainly an interesting one. speaking of interesting political stories, the sydney morning herald is picking up on a story about kim jong—nam, the half brother of the north korean leader kimjong—un, brother of the north korean leader kim jong—un, who was killed brother of the north korean leader kimjong—un, who was killed in brother of the north korean leader kim jong—un, who was killed in a pretty shocking fashion at the airport in malaysia in 2017. yes, cotton cctv. it was something else. he was approached by these two women, he was smothered with a nerve agent, and he was killed. and the story which has now come out is that he supposedly, he was a cia informer. reuters, who are behind the story, say they cannot independently confirm it. the caa of course have said nothing. so who

knows? what we do know about kim jong—nam is that he was always a reformer. he was the eldest son. so actually, he was the heir apparent until about 2001, and because he had these reformist instincts he was pushed aside. it is no surprise that his sympathies lie with the west. we already knew that. whether that converted to him actually being an informer, well, he was in exile since 2003, so he couldn't have been informing on much, since he hadn't beenin informing on much, since he hadn't been in the country for 15 years. still interesting, fascinating story. we have about one minute to go. lyra mckee, her book is available to order this month, angels with blue faces. the 29—year—old journalist who was murdered in northern ireland. it really humanised the story, didn't it? this has sort of come to the fall again because of brexit, because of the concern about what is going to happen there if there is not a deal that is appropriate. yes, but i think, well, it is not for me

to put words into her mouth, if she we re to put words into her mouth, if she were here what she would want us to talk about is the fact that her book ta kes a com pletely talk about is the fact that her book takes a completely new line on a 30—year—old issue. this was the murder of an 30—year—old issue. this was the murder ofan mp 30—year—old issue. this was the murder of an mp who was doing a constituency surgery and it was a lwa ys constituency surgery and it was always believed to be a sectarian issue. her book has a new thesis which is that he was about to reveal information about child abuse in centres, and it was a result of that, but he was murdered. and that isa that, but he was murdered. and that is a completely new line. which is also very interesting. thank you, mark, for your time this morning. and thank you for your company today. whatever you are up to, we hope you have a good day. as we said, lyra mckee's book is out later this month. see you soon.

tuesday is going to bring further heavy rain and this there could be a lot of it, particularly across northern parts of england, the midlands, and wales. on monday, the heaviest of the rainfall was actually across eastern parts of the country in the south—east. if we look at europe, the big picture, we can see over the last two or three days, most of the clouds seem to be stuck across... from northern spain, france, germany, the uk. we have seen big thunderstorms on the near continent, heavy rain here, of course. eastern parts of europe a different story, a few summertime showers and thunderstorms but on the whole a lot of sunshine and very hot, this and the reason for this is that this vortex has formed across western europe. it has been dragging cold air all the way from the north across the uk, france and into spain, whereas this side of europe, warm air has been coming from the south, affecting central and eastern areas, so warsaw, for example, has been in excess of 30 degrees, when it was only 12 degrees in london. on tuesday, the early hours, rain across most of northern england, the midlands, wales, the south—west, just about starting to dry out in the extreme south—east,

but no real rainfall across scotland and northern ireland except for a few showers. in fact, first thing in the morning there will probably be some sunshine in belfast, glasgow and edinburgh. the weather front is stuck. in fact, the whole weather pattern across europe is stuck, it is not moving or moving very slowly. through tuesday, this band of weather, band of heavy rain, will very slowly drift, at a glacial pace it will move its way towards the north. it will continue to rain across yorkshire all through the day, the north—west of england, wales, the south—west, it sort of curls back into the centre of the low. the south—east will see sunshine and heavy showers. in the north of the country there will be some sunshine around. at times it will be

cloudy, but dry at least. on wednesday, the weather system is still with us, a sense of things spiralling very slowly around, and again, more heavy showers being pushed into the uk, so again, it continues to remain very wet across many parts of the country into wednesday. wednesday and thursday, the low pressure is still with us, so this pattern is not in a hurry to change. it will be on the cool side, in fact, as far as the rest of the week is concerned very little change really, at times will be quite windy as well.

good morning. welcome to breakfast with louise minchin and dan walker. our headlines today: and then there were ten. the final contenders to become the conservative party leader and the next prime minister set out their stalls. a call for restrictions on the use of non—disclosure agreements, saying they've created a cover—up culture to silence workers claims of discrimination and harassment. nurseries in some poorer areas of england say they are facing closure because of a shortfall in early years funding. official job numbers are out later this morning. they're expected to show the uk continues to enjoy record