now we rent on around 200 others. now we join politics lie for special coverage of the results of the first ballot in the conservative leadership contest. . the next leader of the party and the next prime minister of the united kingdom. we will bring you the results. it is thursday, 1215, we live in westminster. borisjohnson boris johnson supported james heb, michael gove supporter rachel maclean, the presenter of the

guardian's daily podcast and anti—chief political correspondent chris hope. today... will you tap the ballot today, mrjohnson? he is a long way from number ten, but it looks like boris johnson a long way from number ten, but it looks like borisjohnson ‘s go contest to lose. is it sajid javid? michael gove? jeremy hunt? we'll speak to all of their campaigns. you won't be cheering in september! does this vote mean the commons can't stop the next prime minister pursuing no deal? and, which of these 10 won't make the cut? we'll find out at1 o'clock.

voting in the secret ballot to decide who goes forward in this contest finished at noon, it's all happening in the commons in committee room 1a, let's go straight over to our assistant political editor norman smith, he's in the central lobby of the house of commons. a big day, what's been happening? the committee corridor has been packed all morning. mps have been arriving early doors. my sense is it is looking like a big win for boris johnson. his team seem confident that they will not only win, but win with a commanding majority and some thinking he will get 100 mps to back him. that would be a big win. bigger than people were expecting. i think a number of things going on. there isa a number of things going on. there is a slight gravitational pull towards boris johnson, is a slight gravitational pull towards borisjohnson, people want towards borisjohnson, people want to be on the winning team. there

have been accusations of some pretty ha rd ball have been accusations of some pretty hard ball tactics by some of his supporters in terms of saying, you wa nt to supporters in terms of saying, you want to back borisjohnson, because otherwise your career may not be so great. there is a sense this will be a sizeable boris johnson great. there is a sense this will be a sizeable borisjohnson win. the area of interest i think is who is shaping up to be the person to take him on. i suppose the speculation is it will be jeremy him on. i suppose the speculation is it will bejeremy hunt, michael gove, there is a view his supporters are beginning to fracture. the wildcard is sajid javid, who had a better than expected launch yesterday and whether he can creep up yesterday and whether he can creep up close to jeremy yesterday and whether he can creep up close tojeremy hunt and put himself in position as the person to go through as the final two. there isa go through as the final two. there is a view, talking to boris johnson's people that he would be a harder candidate than jeremy hunt, because jeremy hunt would be portrayed as continuity theresa may. sajid javid comes with a different

story and a different dynamic. that doesn't mean he would beat boris johnson, but it would be a more interesting contest. at the bottom of the pile the calculation is there isa of the pile the calculation is there is a degree of disquiet that it could be a men only contest. i think they're going to struggle to make it. we will let you go. go and put your ear to the door of committee room 1a. see what you can find out. chris hope, we get the first round at1 chris hope, we get the first round at 1 o'clock. some chris hope, we get the first round at1 o'clock. some will drop out. those that don't go forward to the next round. take us from there. those that don't go forward to the next round. take us from therem is complicated. it has been set out by the 1922 committee. we get the a nswe i’s by the 1922 committee. we get the answers today and if you get fewer

than 16 votes, they pull out. then the hustings with the 1922 committee. that is a tul conservative party. yes they can quiz all the candidates and decide that, they have a big debate on monday and the votes start on tuesday and wednesday and thursday and they hope to get the two candidates by this time next week. by candidates by this time next week. by this time next week, i think would be june by this time next week, i think would bejune 20th, we should know who the final two are. that's right. chosen by mps. and then they begin a campaign in the country in which conservative members get to vote between these two? yes there is 160,000 tory members. more than thought. i thought it was 120,000. 36,000 new people. thought. i thought it was 120,000. 36,000 new peoplelj thought. i thought it was 120,000. 36,000 new people. i thought the new people couldn't come in at the last minute. that is not clear. if you have been a memberfor more

minute. that is not clear. if you have been a member for more than three month and over 16 you can vote. there is 16 hustings around the country and hopefully we will get a ccess the country and hopefully we will get access to them. but we have been frozen out of many of the hustings. so, on the current time table, by around july 20th, we will know who the new prime minister is? that is the new prime minister is? that is the week starting and it depends on whether the queen is. because the queen is meant to be aware. the prime minister followed by a helicopter will go to buckingham palace and say i'm standing down and the next leader should be this person and then we have whether there should be a vote in the house of commons. and then the summer recess. yes. it is going to see you, i was worried for a minute. better late than never. some will drop out today and the leadership campaigns

will be short—lived. who won't make the cut? won't get the 17 votes they need. if they get 16 or under they're out. there are a few who don't have that number of open nominations who could be at risk. i think we have still got around 70 tory mps who haven't said who they're backing. the question is somebody like andrea leadsom going to go, or could her plea to keep some diversity in the race help her to get into the next round. she would be at risk, as would ester. there are talk of better known candidates with higher odds not getting through. it works this way, i'm a tory mp, you're a candidate, i say, i'm voting for you, don't worry, but you don't know. it is a secret ballot. that is the thing, who has fewer votes than nominations. there was a tweet from

a professor, who said if he was an mp he would nominate boris and vote for somebody else. that is why it is known as the most duplicitous electorate in the world. they're almost proud of it. let me show you the front—page of the daily telegraph. could you solve something's been puzzling us here in the newsroom. who is the telegraph supporting in this campaign? you're talking to the longest serving reporter in the daily telegraph. i rememberthe reporter in the daily telegraph. i remember the contest in 2005 and we didn't come out with any candidate. we let the readers decide and your viewers can decide. that front-page doesn't give us an inkling? that is a good picture. i think he said it. you need to lean forward and i could scratch your nose. what do you make of that? it is interesting, does he

work for you, in that case do you have to back him? hit this is out of my pay grade. we have had enough fun. we might come back in a bit. james heappey, supporter of boris johnson, what would success today look like for your man?|j johnson, what would success today look like for your man? i think finishing in front is success enough. if he doesn't do that it is a massive failure. it has been clear over the last week that lots of collea g u es over the last week that lots of colleagues have been coming tojoin his campaign and that has been satisfying to see. 0k. rachel maclean, what would be a good day for michael gove? i think we want to see him get through to the second round with a good showing. obviously if he doesn't get through it is a bad day, if he is fourth or fifth, that wouldn't be a good day?” bad day, if he is fourth or fifth, that wouldn't be a good day? i think we have to see how the votes play out. we know that, but if he is down

there, would it be a good result for him or would it be reinforce the sense that since the revelations over the weekend that support has been draining away. the support is still there. the core support is still there. the core support is still there. the core support is still there. let's see how it plays out. i think you nailed still there. let's see how it plays out. ithink you nailed it still there. let's see how it plays out. i think you nailed it with the commentary piece, people are unpredictable in how they vote. now the front—page of the times. it is about this issue of you reach a stand—off between the new prime minister and the parliament over no deal. so the government's, we can't get a deal, we are going on no deal, but we know there is a majority against it, doing it, we will try to stop it, one idea being floated is you simply suspend parliament to get it through the process. it is an interesting idea. mrjohnson has said he won't rule out suspending parliament. why would he not rule

that out? i've seen that story too andi that out? i've seen that story too and i can only go on what i heard in the two hustings in which i have heard boris speak and he was asked clearly whether he would prorogue parliament and he said he wouldn't. 0ne parliament and he said he wouldn't. one of his rivals, dominic rab has taken this position of not necessarily ruling it out. in your view, mrjohnson would not suspend parliament in the event of the clash that i'm talking about? on both occasions the question was asked and he gave a very clear answer. of course the times story is not based on anything he said publicly. it is him telling brexiteers privately. is he now, i know this is unheard of, but is he saying one thing publicly and one thing privately? well, i don't know. because i wasn't in the conversations he has had with others. i can only say that the support for boris in all of the meetings i have been in where his

supporters have come together has been across the party and i have not felt as somebody who voted for the deal three times and voted to remain, that this something that i don't know going on within the campaign. ithink don't know going on within the campaign. i think that boris is playing a straight bat. he said he won't prorogue. but he said he will keep no deal on the table. that is essential. if it does come to a stand off between parliament and the prime minister, on the issue of leaving on no deal, the concept of proroguing parliament and telling parliament to go away while we do it, that would surely amount to a constitutional crisis. it would be. a hassive one. —— massive one. constitutional crisis. it would be. a hassive one. -- massive one. it would be a huge move. if they don't do that, there are still some real difficulties for mp5 do that, there are still some real difficulties for mps in showing they wa nt difficulties for mps in showing they want to stop no deal. indeed. but it would seem to me, i may be wrong,

proroguing parliament and sidelining the elected parliament because it may have a view on this issue which is different from the prime minister's, that is a step too far is it not? i think it is clearly a negotiating tactic to be as hard as you can by brussels by threatening a no deal and say i will not have parliament sitting and get us out. brussels knows enough about our politics, they have been well informed over the past three years, they even watch programmes like this in brussels. that is how well informed they are! they know that is not possible don't they? the problem that any leader has is the numbers in parliament. they won't have an election before november 1st and what do they go, nigel farage will stand against any tory candidate and letjeremy corbyn in. let's suspend it and get out. i can see why

dominic raab is saying it. let's listen to 0liver letwin. he has been closely involved in trying to get parliament into a position where it could stop leaving on no deal, even if the government wanted it. he was involved in yesterday's vote which lost by about 11. interesting, because there are a lot more labour rebels who didn't want to vote for it than tory rebels who did. but here what is he had to say. there are candidates like dock nick raab who say we will have to prorogue parliament he thinks that you will come up with another clever wheeze and the speaker will help you.” wish somebody would tell me what this other wheeze is. i have struggled hard to find every available opportunity and i can't currently think of any more. that is

significant, given who that is coming from and given where he comes from. because i have had a number of what you might call the hardline brexiteers saying parliament can't stop and i have said, if there is a majority against it, with speaker bercow, they will find a way. but if 0liver letwin says he can't see a way, maybe i'm wrong. if he will find a way, with an activist speaker who will do his best to make sure there is a vote on brexit and him saying it on the radio, he is the one who would know. what is the way? the institute of government have looked at this and there are various things you could do and you could have an opposition day debate and you could try and a amend the queen's speech. but they don't need to bring a queen's speech. even with a confidence vote, would we have a

prime minister in time? parliament can have a view of lots of things, including something as important as a no deal, but it is only if it is a view that gives its legislative clout. the vote was about the will of parliament being expressed, it has not been about making a change to the law. boris johnson said that when it comes to parliament, he said that maturity in a sense of duty will prevail in parliament getting it through. what evidence is there in this parliament that it will produce that maturity and sense of duty? yesterday. i think the fact that yesterday in that vote parliament did not take the opportunity to take control of the opportunity to take control of the order paper shows that a very, very significant majority of conservative mps, all but eight or nine, i think, and a conservative mps, all but eight or

nine, ithink, and a number of labour party mps, as well as those that abstained, determined to keep no deal on the table and frankly, i think that that is important because it is possible that attitudes to no deal will change. it is possible that if we are better prepared and if we have a better blueprint for managing no deal, that it will look a lot more credible. and the perverse thing is, the more credible no deal looks in parliament and in terms of our preparation, the more likely we are to get a better deal. although, didn't you think yesterday when gareth snell, the labour mp, he said he had wished he voted for theresa may's deal, i wondered that inafew theresa may's deal, i wondered that in a few months' time will be see borisjohnson get in a few months' time will be see boris johnson get theresa may's in a few months' time will be see borisjohnson get theresa may's deal through? my life has been wasted, three years of it! what happens if the eu does not play ball? it is the way that it is and parliament does

find a way of saying, you are not leaving on no deal. what does the prime minister do? there are a lot of ifs in that. yes, for sure. if parliament stands on the way, you have a big problem. but if you look at yesterday, under new ownership the deal will get taken back to brussels and they will have seen what happened yesterday.” brussels and they will have seen what happened yesterday. i know the argument. the problem is that there is not much evidence. the evidence is not much evidence. the evidence is the other way, that europe does not want to deal. but things change and elections can have an effect. but suppose it doesn't. supposing you end up any situation where the prime minister has said, we are living on no deal, i tried my best, but europe's intra nsigence, living on no deal, i tried my best, but europe's intransigence, dressing it up any way you want, they have said you cannot leave. what happens? i think that is a genuinely unlikely

situation. i understand that, but we live in an age where the unlikely happens every second month! but the attraction for me and other colleagues in supporting boris johnson is that the security policy is that there would need to be a general election to break the impasse and he is the only candidate in this race to beatjeremy impasse and he is the only candidate in this race to beat jeremy corbyn. you would call a general election without the brexit issue being resolved and the brexit party ready to hold your feet to the fire?” have been clear that i do not think thatis have been clear that i do not think that is required. but you have just said that is what you would to do. being able to beat nigel farage and jeremy corbyn is a good insurance policy. could that happen before brexit is resolved ? policy. could that happen before brexit is resolved? absolutely not. that would be a disaster, because i do not think we can find a way through this that we get a majority across the country. we are now talking to our own members who have

their own view. they are already conservative supporters who have their own views, but if you go and speak to the voters around the country at large, if we are trying to square that circle between remainers and people who are getting more angry about this process, and those who want to leave without any deal, regardless of the deal, we have problems. so, if you cannot have problems. so, if you cannot have an election in that circumstance, around the end of 0ctober circumstance, around the end of october this year, how do you break the impasse? so that is why i am backing michael, because i believe that he has the ability to work on the detail. so, brexit is not easy. it is not a simple process. it does require considerable skills and negotiating skills with colleagues, who have a vast number of different persuasions. that is needed to break the impasse. but they will not look at the detail because the eu will tell you that they are not

negotiating. but michael has the skills to do that, he is a committed brexiteer. but what is a point of having negotiating skills if brussels has said, we are not negotiating, we have told you until we are blue in the face. that is the deal, like it or lump it. what's the point of the skills then? well, i believe that we will not face that situation. but if we do, my insurance policy, like james, is that i do not want a general election and i know that michael would go for no deal as he could not get a deal. but also, michael has said that if he is very close to getting a deal, he will not rule out that... getting a deal, he will not rule out that. . . that getting a deal, he will not rule out that... that is in light of the negotiation. what i am trying to get clarity about and it does matter, the negotiations have failed. the prime minister decides that we're leaving on a no deal, parliament stops, what happens? in that

scenario, we leave without detail. mr gove would be prepared for that? yes, don't forget, he is a eurosceptic, he understands the dilemma that is facing us, as i do. we must leave the european union. we leave on the 315t october or very shortly afterwards. with no deal if necessary. so, i ask mr heappey, what does he do if parliament thwarts them. then he just leaves with no deal. but parliament tells him he cannot do that, what does he do? i thinkjames is correct, parliament cannot do that. there are no more options to do that and we are now reaching the point where, in fa ct, are now reaching the point where, in fact, you know, the dynamic has changed. we have all been through those euro elections, notjust our colleagues but labour colleagues as well, and i think there is more of a will to deliver this. we shall see, but it is not clear what either of

you would then do. you talk about mr gove being a brexiteer all of his life. i am gove being a brexiteer all of his life. iam not gove being a brexiteer all of his life. i am not sure that is true, he has certainly been a eurosceptic, whether he has been a brexiteer, i am not so sure about. but among leavers, are his brexiteer status not quite tarnished now? a lot of supporters from the league side are not going to him. i think we have a lot of choices in front of us for brexiteers. i am lot of choices in front of us for brexiteers. lam backing lot of choices in front of us for brexiteers. i am backing michael because he is a brexiteer and he is the best option to get us out with a deal on october the 315t. —— leave side. but everybody says that. it is ha rd to side. but everybody says that. it is hard to disprove because it is in the future. but he was onside for the future. but he was onside for the may agreement. he has said he is prepared to put the leaving date further back. we do not know what kind of agreement, if you did get

negotiations, he would want. he could water down mrs may's deal even more. so, all of us have to take a judgment here. none of us have a crystal ball. at the end of the day, we must place our faith in the person that we think is most likely to deliver the objective that is best for the country. and i agree with you, we cannot look into the future. let me ask you this because i know that we must let you go. if europe did say, ok, we will have limited negotiations on the withdrawal agreement, what is the single biggest change mr gove would look for? he needs to get the backstop out. out? well, or time—limited, or out altogether, which i think is unrealistic, sol think if we can work with the alternatives under the malthouse compromise that i think we all agreed it is feasible, that would give usa agreed it is feasible, that would give us a way through this tangle. so you think time—limited exit is

not feasible either? it could be, and in fact, the eu have signalled thatis and in fact, the eu have signalled that is possible. let us not go there, iam not that is possible. let us not go there, i am not sure of that. yes, they have. what would boris johnson's biggest change be? the backstop also. i do not know exactly what is in the eu's gift to give, nor do i know exactly what boris would ask for. but clearly, his intent is to get a deal through parliament. when that is acceptable to people like me, who have backed theresa may and steve baker and iain duncan smith, who are now in the boris camp, too. and i think, under new ownership, it is perfectly possible that these negotiations can continue and we can be successful. so what you really want is a change to the backstop? i voted for theresa may's deal, as did james, and if

everyone else had done that, we would be out. but we recognise the diverse use in our parliament. to be honest, ijust diverse use in our parliament. to be honest, i just want diverse use in our parliament. to be honest, ijust want a deal done on brexit! we're saying goodbye to james and rachel. in a moment we'll be joined by stephen crabb — he's supporting sajid javid — and vicky ford — she's supporting jeremy hunt. anushka, what do you make of what you have heard they are? well, all sorts of things, but what we will haveis sorts of things, but what we will have is a very difficult situation come october. some people have made an argument which is powerful, which is that the sensible move would be to say, it's not going to be easy to get any of the changes you want done by october, we will not even have the new european commission in place. we will need longer than that, and if you are saying you will get a change to the withdrawal agreement before that, you are suggesting we will have no deal. and it is sort of playing with fire but if you are an ardent remainer did you almost look at this tory party reason think i would quite like borisjohnson to win it because that

is the most likelihood of a confidence vote that would trigger a general election in which we could vote against them? whilst it is true that polling puts borisjohnson ahead ofjeremy corbyn, very hypothetical polling that you have to be careful of. but one of these polls said yesterday, borisjohnson was six points ahead ofjeremy corbyn, but if you looked at the remainers, corbyn had a 32 point lead over boris johnson. remainers, corbyn had a 32 point lead over borisjohnson. so, if you did end up having a general election in that situation, it would end up being a brexit election, and we would have another divided country. but it would be interesting to see the outcome of that. chris, are they right to think if they can get this one change on the backstop that in some way they will get it time—limited or they say in the event of negotiations on the future partnership breaking down entirely, the backstop falls, if they get that, does that get the deal through, is that it? it would for

the dup. we have been importing, europe is looking at five to seven yea rs europe is looking at five to seven years length of backstop, and the idea is so upsetting to brexiteers of being stuck in that for ever. the problem for both of the candidates is that someone like steve baker and a22 is that someone like steve baker and a 22 didn't, nigel farage who i spent time with before the european election, his big thing was how can i trust boris given how he voted previously. he could try and do a deal ahead of the election, certainly. beating jeremy corbyn is what tony blair believes to boris johnson could do. even with the brexit party rampant? well, that was before that happened. so, if it comes down to some change on the backstop, and that is it, you could, at least theoretically, argue that maybe europe would say, if that's it... then let us just do it.

maybe europe would say, if that's it... then let usjust do it. if they are meaningfully seeing no deal, that is when they will put a no deal minister into cabinet, you could be looking at corpora f dominic raab comes in. but talking about corroding parliament. —— trying to stop parliament from sitting. that is a problem. what we do not know are the dynamics of the eu itself, and it has a new parliament, it will need a new jean—claude juncker, the populace are now 25%, 30% of the parliament and they will want to see any commission too, and we know that they have a new budget to negotiate, there is a stand—off between brussels and roma. we do not know if they are in the mood to say, like michel barnier, that is it, or we

have enough fish to fry, let's just do this. -- rome. but they are not particularly warm science from the continent about boris johnson. particularly warm science from the continent about borisjohnson. le monde in france had an editorial which said borisjohnson as pm? no thanks. that is the kind of feel that we are getting from them. do they have a vote? certainly not. all right... we have just they have a vote? certainly not. all right... we havejust had a they have a vote? certainly not. all right... we have just had a tweet from the sun newspaper. rory stewa rt‘s from the sun newspaper. rory stewart's team... they have found him. he doesn't own a mobile phone. 23 minutes to go. rory says he will blame ken if he loses. i have been told they have found him. i saw him going into the committee room. i knew he hadn't gone to lunch. we have vicky ford for gone to lunch. we have vicky ford foer gone to lunch. we have vicky ford for mr gove and stephen crabb for

sajid javid. i'm supporting jeremy hunt actually. oh, you're supporting jeremy hunt? i always have been. absolutely. mr hunt? i'm supporting jeremy. i will double check, you're supporting sajid javid? yes. one out of two is not bad for this show! sajid javid said that borisjohnson is yesterday's news. but your man's been a cabinet minister since 2014. he is not a fresh face. he is experienced and he has done a lot in government. if you look at every government he has served in, he has shown he can take tough decisions and get things done. in terms of representing the future, he does. if you listen to the speech he made yesterday, where he talks about where he came from and where he wa nts to where he came from and where he wants to go and where he wants the

country to go, he is tomorrow's leader and we can have him today. what has he galvanised. he got a decision to ban hezbollah in the uk. a large part of the civil service opposed that. that is a tough decision he got through the machine. it is not the biggest decision. it is not a game—changer? it is not the biggest decision. it is not a game-changer? for whom, tackle terrorism? banning organisations isn't a game—changer. why hadn't it been done before? because a lot of people thought it wouldn't make a lot of difference.” don't think that is the reason why. he said he wants to negotiate a new or reformed backstop or no backstop directly with ireland. what indications have you had that ireland is willing to get involved in such talks? you're right to ask

the question and so far it has been incredibly impressive how ireland and the eu have stood side by side on that issue, one of mistakes my government has made is not opening up government has made is not opening up more of a meaningful dialogue with the irish government and i think sajid javid understands the border issues very well, between northern ireland and the republic and is well placed to have a fresh conversation with the irish government and the eu. that is the case for doing it. but that wasn't what i asked you, what indications have you had from dublin that they have you had from dublin that they have any interest in going down this road? they won't say anything at the moment during a conservative election contest. neither will the eu. but they're all looking with intense interest at the kind of person the conservative party will select. of course. so the answer is... if you think it makes a huge difference to pick somebody

pragmatic and smart.” difference to pick somebody pragmatic and smart. i take the point they may not want to say anything, but you have had no private indication from dublin?” talk to irish ministers frequently and my constituency borders with the republic. have they given you a private indication? no. so you haven't. #2345i -- they are looking at the contest with interest. we no that, but does t matter enough for them to be prepared to go down this road? why should they? if the conservative party picks a smart, intelligent negotiator, who can go to brussels and to dublin and have meaningful conversations we stand a better chance of getting a successful negotiated brexit than if we pick somebody who shows themselves insensitive to the issues in ireland. but the bottom line it isa in ireland. but the bottom line it is a wish a prayer, you have no indication that this is a possibility? i think sajid javid plan is grounded in more realism

than the other candidates. plan is grounded in more realism than the other candidatesm plan is grounded in more realism than the other candidates. it takes two to tango and at the moment it is a uni tango if that is such a thing. i don't think it is. it is now. if we say it, it is. jeremy hunt. yes. you're still backing him. just checking you haven't changed. isn't he just theresa may by another name? no i see this as a serious time. and in order to name? no i see this as a serious time. and in orderto be name? no i see this as a serious time. and in order to be able to resolve brexit and lead that negotiation we need someone who is trusted and competent on the the international stage, with that hair of gravitas that i see injeremy hunt. his negotiating strategy is very different. what we saw previously was a negotiating

strategy which involved sending the civil servants to brussels, but not the politicians. those on the other side of the table on the the eu, they have now don't believe that that delivers, that westminster government as it was, delivers the westminster parliament. his strategy of bringing politicians from across the spectrum into the negotiating team is completely different and is a much clearer negotiating stance. let me get this right, he is going to to the negotiations, which we don't know if the eu will grant, for the negotiations he will bring in labour people? he will bring in the people that we know will bring the jart. —— people that we know will bring the jart. — — majority. people that we know will bring the jart. —— majority. we also... people that we know will bring the jart. -- majority. we also... will he bring in the scots? he has suggested bringing scots tories and welsh tories. bringing in the eu,

the dup, the erg. erg, the amber rudd would go in? you should pack up this shah abang and head with this cast of thousands. when the eu negotiates with the european parliament, they make sure that they have the plymouth spectrum on the other side of the table so that the negotiators can deliver the votes. but more importantly, we know that in orderto but more importantly, we know that in order to resolve this negotiation with europe, they need to have somebody that they trust and see as competent on the international stage. you mentioned the head headline in the french newspapers. the french newspapers and the french leader and the 27 leaders will will all have a say. they have had their say and the negotiations is done and dusted. we have got a camera in

committee room 14. it is empty at the moment. but in less than ten minutes time, because we expect it at about 1 o'clock, minutes time, because we expect it at about1 o'clock, we will get minutes time, because we expect it at about 1 o'clock, we will get the result of first round of the conservative mps, the 313 of them, 10 candidates, that is somebody taking a picture, maybe a selfie. we will get the result and of course those who don't get more than 16f they get 16 or less, including themselves, they're out. and they move on. that is right isn't? 16 or fewer. i thought it was 17 including themselves. yes. let me come back to this. so he puts together this team, it is at least two carriages and the eu rostar it is at least two carriages and the eu rosta r to it is at least two carriages and the eurostar to brussels and good news for brussels hotels and they pile up this gang of scots and irish and the

welsh as well. what is it he going to ask for? you can't carry on going in the situation that we are in. what will he ask for? we need too resolve the issues on the irish border and this is the important thing about jeremy hunt, border and this is the important thing aboutjeremy hunt, is that he has already started the discussions. last week he met angela merkel and emmanuel macron and the dutch prime minister, to start the discussions. we have a limited time frame here. what did angela merkel say? the comment was yes, they want to resolve this, they don't want to have a no deal exit either. but also a very interesting message about the irish border with our border, we need to come up with the proposals, it is our border with ireland, so working with ireland is a sensible suggestion. that is howey need to —— how we need to resolve this. we need to leave. i recognise that as a remainor, but we need to do it

without having to go into another general election. as someone who follows berlin and paris politics carefully, i've not seen any change, but maybe mr hunt has the magic sauce to do it. we shall see. the result is coming up at about one o'clock. now, we're some way off the end of this contest. we expect to find out who has won in latejuly. let's remind you now how some of the previous conservative leadership elections have turned out. and a warning — there is some flash photography in this film. we start in 1975. it is important to me that this prize has been won in open electoral contest, with four other potential leaders. mr major fought a brilliant short campaign. only five days after entering

the race, he wins the crown. this representative meeting of the conservative party congratulates the right honourable william hague on his election as leader of the conservative party. cheering and applause. i therefore declare that iain duncan smith has been duly elected as leader of the conservative party. applause. i therefore declare that michael howard is elected leader of the conservative party and of her majesty's opposition. cheering and applause. i now declare david cameron to be the duly elected leader of the conservative party. cheering and applause. i, as chairman of the 1922 committee, and the board of the conservative party, must formally confirm that

mrs may is the new leader of the conservative party. cheering and applause. quite often the interesting thing is the front runner is not the one who ended up becoming leader. that was true of mr thatcher in 75. we're joined now by the documentary—maker michael cockerell. how many have you done? well, depends where you start. i was first interested in politics when harold mcmillan became prime minister. they had an interesting way of selecting a leader, it was 1957. eden had stood down. after suez. yes, and lord salisbury, the great lord

salisbury called in the two leading contender, harold mcmillan and rab butler and he said to each, which is it to be? wab or harowold. he had gone to eden and wab hant? yes -- hadn't. mallsborough. in 1963 when harold mcmillan thought he had cancer and was in the hospital, and handed in his seals of office to the queen, mcmillan's own choice, lord hume, got it and according to one cabinet minister who then resigned, it was a magic circle of old eteen

yons. -- etonians. and he... eden had gone. iain mcleod, who created the phrase, he had only gone to fetes. what was your favourite contest? 75 is one that i was filming. a very young michael with long black hair. not sure if we have footage of that. there is footage of that, it was shown in that margaret thatcher series. and i filmed that, it was shown in that margaret thatcher series. and ifilmed with ted heath and margaret thatcher. ? why did you like that win, it was clear that ted heath was in trouble. he had lost two elections in a row.

so he had won one and lost three. by november of 74, the election was in february 75... november of 74, the election was in february 75. .. margaret thatcher wasn't on many people's lips? no, she did not think there could ever be a women prime minister in her lifetime. but then the favourite of that part of the party, sir keith joseph, blew himself up by suggesting that very people should be sterilised, or something like that. he came into our programme and kennedy put it to him and did he say thatis kennedy put it to him and did he say that is right? and he said that was disastrously wrong. he asked that he could set any darkened room before he came on. so, he withdrew from the

potential leadership campaign and mrs thatcher decided that she would stand, and she was prepared... it was a fascinating contest, because she was prepared to stand against ted heath, no other member of his cabinet would challenge him. and if they had a system where there will bea they had a system where there will be a first round, and then in the second round, new contestants could come in, and what was called the cowbridge charter, and willie whitelaw threw his hat in. but by then, mrs thatcher had beaten ted heath in the first ballot. ted heath withdrew and for other people came in. a special prize for knowing who those other people where. willie whitelaw. i knew about him. old oyster eyes! i can't remember the other three. geoffrey howe. jim prior and £100,000 prize if you can tell me the 4—1? and there was a

fifth one who stood in the first ballot, sir hugh fraser. but in the second one, he did not get through because he was the third in the first round and it wasjohn peyton. transport minister. yes. as we have this walk down memory lane, about politicians who are no longer with us, none of them had a chance in that second ballot of beating mrs thatcher, but let us look at committee room 14. it is filling up with conservative party mps, we await the result. it has gone at one o'clock. we were told the result would be sharp. it is a little bit, there are only 313 people allowed to vote, so not that many votes to count. they have been voting for ten candidates. we estimate that at least five of the ten will make it safely through. they will get 17 or more votes in this first round. the next round of voting is tuesday of

next round of voting is tuesday of next week, when next tuesday you will need 33 votes. that is as a percentage of the party and you need 33 votes to get through round two and then there will be around for and then there will be around for and may be around 51 week today as well. there are four or five candidates that are not sure if they will get through, it is always hard to tell, as anushka was saying earlier, quite a few tory mps have not declared who they were most in favour of, but we think the people most worried at the moment that they may not have made it are probably mark harper, andrea leadsom, esther mcvey, perhaps rory stewart, although he has had a bit of momentum in his campaign. he may have done it. we think matt hancock may well have squeezed through into the next round as well. so, we will know, we believe byjune the 20th, one week today, who the final two candidates are to go to the

membership and the country. so, it isa membership and the country. so, it is a big day for them as they await to see the result. you can't also rule out that even though someone might get through to the next round that they they didn't do that well, they maybe got 18 votes, and so they will throw their lot in with someone else, maybe any hope of preferment if they pick the winning side. so, you may get more of a winnowing out than first looked likely. it was going to take much longer than this, they change the rules pretty much at they change the rules pretty much at the last minute. the rules were that simply the last person fell out and then you had to vote. the last person fell out then vote, then vote, then vote. but they took the view with so many people in that this would be a bit of a circus, and so they decided to toughen up the road so that they can get it through more quickly and get to the party and the country and get the prime minister, the new prime minister, whoever it is, before parliament goes for the summer recess. and then

it will be interesting, chris hope, do you think...? would labour go for a vote of no confidence in the new leader? because they would probably not win it at that stage. they are about to start i think. but i think they would be nervous of using that blunderbuss to bring down the government. perhaps a better option in the autumn? 0k, government. perhaps a better option in the autumn? ok, let's go over. cheryl gillan mp is about to give the results of the first round of the results of the first round of the conservative leadership contest 2019. ladies and gentlemen on behalf of the 1922 committee, charles walker and i, as the returning officers for the election of the leader of the conservative and unionist party, do now declare the results of the first ballot. the total number of votes cast in the ballot today where 313, and you will be pleased to know that there were no spoilt or rejected ballot papers! the total number of votes cast for each candidate in

alphabetical order where as follows. . . alphabetical order where as follows... michael gove, 37. matt hancock, 20. mark harper, ten. jeremy hunt, 43. sajid javid, 23. borisjohnson, 114. jeremy hunt, 43. sajid javid, 23. boris johnson, 114. andrea jeremy hunt, 43. sajid javid, 23. borisjohnson, 114. andrea leadsom, 11. esther mcvey, nine. dominic raab, 27. and rory stewart, 19. therefore, the following seven candidates are eligible to participate in the next ballot on tuesday the 18th of june. participate in the next ballot on tuesday the 18th ofjune. michael gove, matt hancock, jeremy hunt, sajid javid, boris johnson, dominic raab and rory stewart. and on your

behalf, can i thank my colleagues for participating in an orderly election, and my colleague officers of the 1922 committee and our staff for helping conduct of the ballot in an orderly fashion today. thank you very much indeed. so, there we have the results from committee room 14 at the house of commons, and a headline news is that borisjohnson is way ahead in the first ballot for the conservative party with 114 votes. i i think that is as good as a result as as people could have hoped for, getting into triple figures. it was going to be a bit of a stretch but he has done it. those that get the wooden spoon out already, mark harper is gone, only ten votes. andrea leadsom has gone with 11. esther mcvey has gone with nine. so, no women now in the second round. michael gove is through a 37 votes, which i guess is ok, not

great. matt hancock is in 20. jeremy hunt come second with 43 votes. so, in this battle between mr gove and mr hunt, which many people think it's either going to be mr gove or mr hunt who will take on mrjohnson in the final two, mr hunt has got a lead. but the interesting result is also that rory stewart has got through, and there was an assumption at one stage that that was not going to happen, that he would not get through the first round. but there has been some momentum in his campaign and a lot of media interest in that as well, so he has done it and it's true to the next round. he goes on to the hustings and will get more publicity and they will be some tv coverage for this as well any way that there has not been for the first round. so, although mrjohnson is clearly in the lead, there is all to play for, i would suggest, chris hope, for the second position. totally, boris is already there now,

he is in the final two. he is virtually they are now. so who is second? well, jeremy hunt is doing well. michael gove is stored. hancock failed to fire his campaign, 20 is not good for him, we thought he would get more. dominic raab, but the problem you have with rory stewart, a great campaign, integrity, he was there at the nomination on monday. i have saw him on twitter, he was there for the count. he is a great leader but at the wrong time. he is not sound on brexit as far as the membership is concerned, so he will not win. but a good show now puts him right in line for the next campaign. yes, and also for the next campaign. yes, and also for who he anoints. and perhaps it could be mr gove or mr hunt. what is your take? as chris says, boris johnson is above the magic line of 105 which you need to get to at a later stage and a vote next week to be in the final two. so boris

johnson's people not only nominated him publicly but they went in and voted for him and that will be comfortable. it is really quite close between some of the others but i think for those people who do not wa nt i think for those people who do not want borisjohnson, i think for those people who do not want boris johnson, you i think for those people who do not want borisjohnson, you know, there used to be this anything but boris campaign, they will be thinking, who is the best person to have a chance against him? michael gove would have hoped that because he has those brexit credentials of the campaign, that people might see him as an alternative who might have a go with the membership. that suggests he is not quite there, but he is not that far behind the jeremy hunt. your man, mrcrabb, not far behind the jeremy hunt. your man, mr crabb, not a far behind the jeremy hunt. your man, mr crabb, nota great far behind the jeremy hunt. your man, mr crabb, not a great result, is it? that is more than the public declarations, so the progress is positive. do not forget that sajid javid started his campaign later than others which were up and running. that was his decision. there is momentum, but the question is who willjoin boris in the final two. if we look towards next week's

activities, the discussion will probably broaden beyond brexit and it will be a growing appetite for a robust contest between two very different individuals, boris plus someone else. i still think sajid javid would provide a great alternative of choice. where do his votes co m e alternative of choice. where do his votes come from now? where do mr harper's ten votes go? well, the idea that any of these candidates can gift their supporters... sajid javid will be speaking to the supporters of all the candidates saying, look, particularly on the back of his successful launch yesterday, it is time to give him a second look. he provides a party with something very different, and if the party wants to be very bold and the membership wants to be bold, they will pick someone like sajid javid to give the party a chance of a fighting survival. he is unlikely to get the votes of andrea leadsom, and of esther mcvey. and that is 20.

but you are assuming that this contest is entirely one—dimensional around brexit. it is a huge issue in this, but if you listen to the kind of discussions that are going on in the tea rooms, it is also about how we get through the next general election and beyond that, and to do that successfully, to give the party a fighting chance, you will need someone like sajid javid who can reach well beyond the party's core base. michael, how do you read this? one of the dynamics, i would have thought, would be that if mrjohnson is now on 114 and almost certain to be one of the last two, that there will be a bandwagon effect and that a number of tory mps willjustjump on thejohnson a number of tory mps willjustjump on the johnson bandwagon a number of tory mps willjustjump on thejohnson bandwagon now. a number of tory mps willjustjump on the johnson bandwagon now. that is what always happens, yes. if you see the person that looks already as if they are going to be the next prime minister, you come at the very least, indicates to his people that you are voting for him or her. one tory mp said that in one of the

previous election said to me, i voted for both of them so that when my constituency asked, i could say honestly that i voted for the prime minister. i remember that! i am sure there are many people writing that down now to use it again!” there are many people writing that down now to use it again! i remember one other thing during the time of mrs thatcher, when she was challenged by sir anthony as a stalking horse, she herself had been called a stalking filly, and i saw the then chairman of the tory party chris patten and said, who did you vote for? he said i voted for the conservative candidate. there you go! best rugby of sky news has said that the ballot closed and she continues... —— beth rigby.

they did not need it, did they? it worked anyway. one thing to remember about the difference between the membership, the rules now and as they were back in 1975, they changed in the late 90s, they brought in tory members. you are notjust saying who are the mps going to back, you are seeing who are they going to love? borisjohnson is a little bit like marmite with voters and it turns out that tory members love marmite. he will win if he gets through to the final two, which looks likely. that bandwagon effect will be amplified. you have michael gove 137, jeremy hunt on 43. not that far apart. so, i gove 137, jeremy hunt on 43. not that farapart. so, i mean, they are second and third, i think i am right in saying in this ballot. —— michael gove on 37. you do not know how the other votes will be divvied up.

gove on 37. you do not know how the other votes will be diwied up. yes, ido other votes will be diwied up. yes, i do hope that no one pulls out. the 1922 committee did speak to these candidates telling them not to back out because the members are demanding a vote and you have a month of hustings. let us go to central lobby. we have rory stewart joining us. he is going forward to the second round. where are you surprised or did you expect to get into the next round? politburo, no sound at all if you're trying to speak to me! the moment we do get sound we will go straight back to him. he is talking there. let's try now. rory stewart have we established some sound with you now? ican hear established some sound with you now? i can hear you loud and clear. thank you. i hope not too cloud. but certainly clear. my question was you got through to the second round, did you expect to get through to the second round or this is a surprise? i'm so sorry, but the sound is

cutting in and out a all the time. try again i see you have the's piece. try and hold it in. sorry for the inconvenience. if you become leader of conservative party you will have more inconvenience. my mother will accuse me of picking my ear on television. don't worry i will have a word with him. were you surprised you got through to the second round. i'm over the moon. i had six declared votes and more than three times that number of collea g u es three times that number of colleagues voted for me. i think what probably changed it is we have had the first polls showing that i'm now second among the conservative members. the challenge until now we we re members. the challenge until now we were able to show i was outpolling the candidates among the public. this morning we had the polls showing i'm second among the members. that must be what turn around the final few. where do you

get your votes from now, to whom do you appeal to get more, you're through but you have not got a lot of votes, how do you build on that? you build on that byjust saying this message about being radical and brave on the centre the ground and getting out and listening to people is very popular. none of other candidates are tapping into this. at the moment, i think i have got 57 million social media impressions. i can put out a video and get 1.4 million people. a conservative message communicated properly and if you listen in the right way is very popular. i think it can be said if the electorate was twitter, you might have won. if the electorate was twitter that is true, but it is also true in the opinion polls, if

you see the observer and the yougov polls, i'm neck and neck with boris. there is huge suspicious among mps and others that you are just too much of a remain tore deliver brexit —— remainor to deliver brexit.” voted remain, buti —— remainor to deliver brexit.” voted remain, but i have been committed to getting brexit through, you will have seen me arguing to get these deal through and i'm a realist. the reason i can get brexit done more quickly than the other candidates is i recognise at the heart of this is parliament. these other candidates are just saying, i'm going to get brexit done. when you say to boris how will you get it done, will you lock the doors of parliament or get a new deal from europe. no answer comes back. what we need, the way i'm going to win, is to get people to focus on the practical issues — how do we get this done? do you intend to re-open

the negotiations if you were to win? i would look at the political declaration and i was talking to the german embar door, i would be talking to angela merkel. there is no way europe will allow the withdrawal agreement to be rewritten. if we want the leave is to get that extra 45 votes in parliament and drive it through and imaginei parliament and drive it through and imagine i did get elected, i would be coming in with a different mandate from theresa may. i would be coming in having won an election openly saying to members of conservative party, i am going to get the withdrawal agreement through. that would give me a very different position in relation to steve baker and others who say the members don't want to do brexit in that way. you may have another mandate, that would remain to be seen, but from what you say, a vote for rory stewart would be a vote for

mrs may's withdrawal agreement?‘ vote for rory stewart is a vote for getting brexit done as quickly as it can be done. on the may agreement. on the withdrawal agreement. exactly. which is the may agreement. the same agreement that the prime minister negotiated and our civil serva nts minister negotiated and our civil servants negotiated. that is the only agreement. you are a continuity may. i'm not continuity may. i don't look anything like the previous prime minister and i negotiate in a different way. your agreement looks like her agreement. it is the reality, there are no other agreements out there. the other candidates are spinning fantasies, where are their agreements and deals? chris hope would like to put a question to you. you say you're a realist, could you serve in boris johnson's cabinet, given he is set to win? if boris were to become prime minister and advocate for something that i believe would be

misleading the public, if he was to continue saying that he will get brexit done by 31st october without explaining how he is going to get it done, of course i couldn't serve in that government. i couldn't advocate for a policy that would be letting down the public. so you would then, you're move on the idea of working with borisjohnson if he becomes leader? no i would not serve in boris's government, because he is advocating for a policy i couldn't believe in. we will leave it there. thank you for bearing with our sound problems. apologies on this thing in my ear, my her‘s going to get very angry. don't worry, we'll square your mother. he is an interesting candidate. he is different. that is why the media like him. he is definitely different and i was interviewing him and he mentioned the two million hits for a video on

twitter. it was like we didn't him and he was like, look, look! the difficulty he has and it is a big difficulties, if you look at the tory membership, more than half are up tory membership, more than half are upfor no tory membership, more than half are up for no deal. so how is he going to persuade them that actually we can get no change on this withdrawal agreement? it is a brave position to take, michael, essentially to say, when it comes to the withdrawal agreement, or the future partnership, he says he would go to berlin and paris, but it is a brave decision to say on an agreement which has gone down in flame already in parliament, i'm going to stick with that? three times and the first time by record margins. it is extraordinary. but on the other hand, it has been negotiated, it is the only deal on the table. it was ha rd

the only deal on the table. it was hard to negotiate. the eu, they are difficult negotiators. but it's very brave. but his own candidacy is brave. but his own candidacy is brave. he is an extraordinary character and he speaks, he said, brave. he is an extraordinary characterand he speaks, he said, i said how many languages do you speak, he said, oh, eleven, but my serbo croat is rusty. he has tried to reconnect the country with an internal conversation going on in the conservative party. just by hammering the centrist message, that doesn't appeal to the readers of the daily telegraph, but we shouldn't assume the membership are all doolally over having a new deal. i

think as we get deeper into the contest it will be much more interesting and i wouldn't write the quy interesting and i wouldn't write the guy off. the cliche is it is a contest for boris johnson to guy off. the cliche is it is a contest for borisjohnson to lose. that cliche becomes more true with 114 votes in the first ballot. what does your man, sajid javid, who is only on 23 votes, what does he have to do to get within shouting distance of mrjohnson. there is a lot of work for team sajid javid to do. when ruth davidson gave that introduction and we want a winning course for the general election, it will pick somebody like sajid javid to turn the page. at the molt -- at moment he is in the kind of third

division, if you take, well, in this sense, if you... most of division, if you take, well, in this sense, if you. .. most of them. the first division is borisjohnson, because he is in a league of his own with 114. you have a battle for who will get second place. that is the second division. the clue's in the name. sajid javid is in the third division with only 23. the interesting thing for round two is who between michael gove and jeremy hunt can add to their votes to be the second person. we have things that will happen. we will see more of the candidates on television and debating each other. somehow one of them will get a spark that will start to attract other people and you can't be sure that that is the person who has the most votes yet. you can't be sure. maybe rory stewart will be the person who becomes that, maybe sajid javid will say i'm more distinctive than the others. maybe, because michael gove

is on 37 and jeremy hunt on 43, doesn't mean they will be in second position. let's go to amber rudd in the central lobby of the house of commons. you must be disappointed with the showing ofjeremy hunt. way behind boris johnson? with the showing ofjeremy hunt. way behind borisjohnson? ah, sound is going well today! let me make sure we have amber rudd there. i think we are going to have to go back to her. as we check her sound too. she has the rory stewart ear piece on. what do you make of that chris hope, that in the way tory leadership elections work, you can't rule out either sajid javid or someone, or even dominic raab coming up. but its not for sure that the battle for second place is between michael gove and jeremy hunt. it can change with the

tv debates. channel 4 is sunday and tuesday bbc. not sure if they're all taking part. who might be the nick clegg figure and rory stewart's team think get him into the public forum and and he is impressive. what is your advice to those who have been knocked out early, do you turn your phone off and make others beg? they have got to enjoy the experience. the three of those who will be dropping out, they knew they were outside bets. hopefully they feel they have had a chance to show off their skills and their ideas. that is the most you can hope for if you're a rank outsider in such a large field. they should probably have a rest and hopefully and can... can they speak for those who voted

for them. you can't treat your followers as a block you can gift to the front runners. but they will make their preferences known. andrea leadsom will tell us who she is backing. and indicate she could like her people to go that way. that is the most they can do? yes. all the candidates dropping out will do that. it becomes more of a, an election taking place in the public glare. chris talked about debates coming up. there is a debate on channel 4 at the weekend. and then a bbcl. channel 4 at the weekend. and then a bbci. but channel 4 at the weekend. and then a bbc1. but does that take place on the tuesday night, won't the mps already have voted by then? what happens michael? won't they have voted. they will have voted. but there is still more voting to come after that. it is getting later in the day. channel4 looks after that. it is getting later in the day. channel 4 looks like after that. it is getting later in the day. channel4 looks like being the day. channel4 looks like being the main public one. they will all

be giving interview. it will be for second place, we don't think boris johnson will be there. is boris johnson will be there. is boris johnson unstoppable now in terms of getting through to the party membership ballot. yes in the sense that all he needs sorry, chris, is one third plus one and he is automatically through. he needs that in the final vote. the fact he has got it now doesn't guarantee it. i thought michael gove was actually getting a bit of momentum until the cocaine fiasco. i will have to interrupt you on the mention of drugs and go to amber rudd. i think we may have established sound. amber rudd can you hear me? yes. apologies, we have had a few gremlins. with only 43 votes, you must be a little bit disappointed by

the showing forjeremy hunt. not at all, he came a good second, he got more than sajid javid and matt hancock combined, and that is what we we re hancock combined, and that is what we were after. it is only the first round, there are a few more rounds to go. what then is the plan to stop borisjohnson? to go. what then is the plan to stop boris johnson? that is not the plan, the plan is to get as many voters behind jeremy hunt as possible and that he continues to build momentum and pick up some of the votes that maybe we'll leave the race now. it looks highly likely that boris johnson will be in the final to do and then it goes to members. the fa ct and then it goes to members. the fact that boris has a good lead amongst mps is nothing. we start again, it is back to zero when it goes to members. —— any final two. then it goes to hustings across the country and anything can happen. but i hope that my manjeremy hunt wins. it then goes to the party membership ballot with mrjohnson, and we seem to assume that he was sure we'll be

there. who is the biggest threat then to mr hunt to get on, michael gove, he has the next most votes? well, it looks like michael gove comes third. but the fact is that there are a number of other people who are still considering a character vote. it will be interesting to see how the people who drop out now vote. but the challenge will be over the next few days for the people who came fourth and fifth to think about whether they should get behind jeremy hunt, andi they should get behind jeremy hunt, and i hope that they will, or whether they want to continue to fight on. what are your chances to get those who voted for esther mcvey and andrea leadsom? there are 20 votes, i would suggest that probably not many will go to your man.” don't agree with that, andrew. perhaps it will not be made that makes that call, butjeremy has leavers and remainers onside. i was delighted to sit alongside and introduce him with penny martin. all of those voters are up for

persuasion to back the right man to lead this country. we know that mr hunt thinks he can improve on the existing deal or do another deal, he has talked about his negotiation skills and experience, but if that proves impossible, if he is not able to pull that off as prime minister, what would he do? jeremy is one of the candidates who has been absolutely honest about the challenges that are ahead of us, and thatis challenges that are ahead of us, and that is one of the reasons i backed him and my concern about some of the candidates is that they are not facing up to the difficulties. i think we should allow him the licence to go ahead and tried to make these improvements in order to win the support of the house and get some changes from the eu before speculating as to what would happen if he doesn't. but it is rather important, because we do not know if there is any chance of getting changes. if we take the eu at its word at the moment, there is no chance of a change on that the withdrawal agreement. so, chance of a change on that the withdrawalagreement. so, ithink chance of a change on that the withdrawal agreement. so, i think it is fairto ask withdrawal agreement. so, i think it is fair to ask in the event that he cannot change the withdrawal agreement, what does he do? this is

why i have chosen to backjeremy after looking at all of the other candidates and having a substantial number of one nation hustings. i believe he has the skills to get the change that will be able to be delivered. what people are looking for empowerment as much as anything else, is a change to the political declaration so that they can have the confidence that the backstop will not be open ended, and jeremy has spoken frankly about the challenges regarding that, and that is why he has won support now. it is going to be difficult and he has the right experience as foreign secretary to engage with the eu, and i believe they can do it but he will be frank about the difficulties ahead. the withdrawal agreement is a legally binding agreement, the backstop is inside the withdrawal agreement. i do not understand how changes to the political declaration, which is not legally binding, can change in any legal way the backstop. what members of parliament are looking for is confidence that the backstop will not be locking them down and it will

not be locking them down and it will not be locking them down and it will not be able to leave it without any independent action by this country. that can be achieved by a number of ways, not necessarily by opening the withdrawal agreement itself which is what the eu has said it will not do. andrew, i know you want certainty here. ijust want andrew, i know you want certainty here. i just want an andrew, i know you want certainty here. ijust want an answer. i am giving you one, you just do not like it. it is not for me to dislike or like it, it isjust to it. it is not for me to dislike or like it, it is just to get it. it is not for me to dislike or like it, it isjust to get an it. it is not for me to dislike or like it, it is just to get an answer andi like it, it is just to get an answer and i come to the point again. i don't understand why not changing something that is legally binding can then be changed by fiddling around with something that is legally binding. you can have letters or agreements that are outside the withdrawal agreement to give the members of parliament... legally binding? we will see. it may be that the members of parliament decide that is enough. the big difference is this, that a new prime minister, jeremy hunt as prime minister, jeremy hunt as prime minister, would get a good hearing from the eu to try to break this impasse, and that members of parliament, some of whom are conservative brexiteers who have

stopped us leaving so far, would also give him a new hearing. that would change everything. and if mr hunt's diplomatic skill still cannot bring us to a new arrangement, what does he do? as no deal ruled out entirely, as far as you are concerned? the current position or no deal is that we must prepare for it, and my department has been doing that, but i have been clear that i think no deal would be bad for the economy, the security and bad for the union. but preparing for no deal, it is like wearing a seat belt, you have to do it when you are driving the car but it does not mean that you want to crash the car. we must do all we can to avoid a no deal, but it is also up to the eu, they may nevertheless force us to leave without a deal, which i think would be very unwelcome. so, you would be very unwelcome. so, you would be very unwelcome. so, you would be prepared to leave with no deal? we have always agreed that the no deal preparations must be made because article 50 will expire.”

did not ask about that, i asked if you would be prepared to leave with ano you would be prepared to leave with a no deal rather than remain? you are asking me a question with what i do not believe other facts on the ground. we are talking about the future, amber rudd, neither of us are mystic meg! andrew neil, article 50 will expire at the end of october, it is not up to us whether we extend or not, it is not up to us. it may be that the eu will decide that they will make us leave at the end of it, so we must prepare for it. and that is what we are doing. and there may not be an alternative to it, we have to make sure that we find one and that is whyjeremy hunt is best placed to do so. and if mrjohnson becomes your new leader and our new prime minister, and he says that i will try to do a deal but i make it clear that if i can't get a new deal or a change to the withdrawal agreement, we are living on no deal, be in no doubt of that, that is what he will

say, would you serve in his government on that basis?” say, would you serve in his government on that basis? i think it is presumptuous to think about who is presumptuous to think about who is serving and who's government. i will always try to persuade people that we are much better off with a deal that no deal, but we must bust a gut to achieve that. i'm still not clear, would you serve any boris johnson government or not that was prepared to go for no deal? as i have said, it is presumptuous to start thinking about who will be invited into who's cabinet. so i will stick to answering the fact that i will always try to persuade prime ministers, whoever they are, that we need a deal, and that we should do all we can to achieve that. conservatives have given us two female prime ministers, no other party has given us any, and yet there is not one single woman going forward to the next round of the conservative leadership contest. yes, disappointing, iwould conservative leadership contest. yes, disappointing, i would always like to see more women involved in politics, and it is a shame that we

do not have more at senior level at the moment. why did you not run? i took the view that i thought the membership would prefer someone who had more direct enthusiasm for brexit than i do. amber rudd, we thank you very much for your time need busy day for your party. thank you forjoining us from the central lobby. —— on a busy day for your party. i like the metaphor with the seat belt, driving the car. would it be boris driving the car? all right, we have nicky morgan joining boris driving the car? all right, we have nicky morganjoining us now. i better make sure i get this right. backing michael gove. indeed. not a great result coming third with 37. michael gove had a difficult slot. he had a very good launch and he got

more people involved publicly. it is a good result and many people will have to think before tuesday who they will make the second candidate to ta ke they will make the second candidate to take on boris at the members' stage. that is one of the big questions and i think that michael will take the fight to boris and he is one of the original brexiteers, led the campaign with boris and i think they should get together and slug it out for the members. except that some brexiteers don't seem to trust him as much now. people are looking for all sorts of justifications as to why people are voting for certain candidates. the fa ct voting for certain candidates. the fact is michael, for decades, he has campaigned for brexit, he absolutely wa nts to campaigned for brexit, he absolutely wants to deliver it. it is not enough to believe in brexit, you must deliver it. it was a very impressive launch earlier this week. and i think he should be given a chance to put his case to the membership. at the moment, it would look likejeremy membership. at the moment, it would look like jeremy hunt is membership. at the moment, it would look likejeremy hunt is the man that he has to be to get the second place on the ballot. jeremy came second, michael came third, it will be very interesting and i am not sure what you have discussed already

but there are other candidates punched around the 20 as many as are of the opinion, say "aye". to the contrary, "no".. we will have to see next week, particularly on tuesday, what happens when votes transfer. candidates will vote one way in the first round and might vote differently any second. indeed, and even though you come second or third, it does not mean that you will be second or third in the next ballot. are you surprised as to how much this cocaine business seemed to derail his campaign? we have often said that the public has grown up now. what you did when you were young, the drugs issue is not a huge issue any more. and yet, for mr gove it has been a big issue, since it became public. yes, it is an important thing. michael has been clear about it. he regrets it and in some ways, it shows that people take this very seriously. however, what i have been struck by... firstly, it

did not come up on the hustings that he did formps did not come up on the hustings that he did for mps this week at all. people do not like it, but they are thinking clearly about who is the right person to deliver brexit now. he has been very candid about it and i think that is the right thing. can he move on? i see through the storm on this? i mean, it may have been useful and perhaps even planned that he got it out early in the campaign. no, it came out early through a book that he had collaborated on. i think he has got through it and at the beginning of the week it was a topic that many were giving interviews on. the big question for people is going to be fundamentally that the situation has not changed. michael is an original brexiteers. i think that he should have the opportunity to put his case to members. i am backing him because back in 2016 when i did not back theresa may, at this time in our history we need brexiteer to deliver brexit. he has

campaigned for it, he has a plan to deliver it and he should have the chance to do so. boris johnson has treated... well, he would say that. you are hardly going to say, i won! why should people vote for sajid javid rather than michael gove? because i think he provides a clear choice for the party membership. i mean, i love boris and i love michael gove a lot, but i think with those two, there is a bit of a psychodrama element, which, do we really wa nt psychodrama element, which, do we really want to go through that again, back to 2016? it would be good forjournalism! certainly in our trade! but in terms of getting a good and sensible choice for the party, i would like to see sajid in the final two. all of these candidates are telling us how they will renegotiate, except for rory stewart, who isn't doing that. and

it is almost untestable. because it is about what you do in the future. we have at the moment to hang on reply is what the eu is saying, and that maybe how they stick, but they may change. i think that dominic raab suggesting that he will paroled parliament... boris saying what he is saying. —— prorogue. parliament... boris saying what he is saying. -- prorogue. but they are all claiming things that they will be great out but we will never know until they try it, and the chances are that they will not be. especially as while looking across the wall when you can look at the history book. borisjohnson did not even mention his time as foreign secretary and his party launch. and i wonder why that is. i will have to

stop you there. i am on this week tonight with michael portillo, liz kendall, matte forde and quentin letts. we will be on bbc one from 11:35pm. bye— bye. the number of university students seeking help for mental health problems has risen sharply. 50% in just five years, according to data gathered by the bbc. now this study of 14,000 undergraduates suggest stu d e nts of 14,000 undergraduates suggest students want that information to be shared ina students want that information to be shared in a crisis. 66% said that, under extreme circumstances, the university should contact a parent or guardian. while 15% say mental