diane, what happened here? it looks like a diagrammatic u—turn —— a dramatic u—turn. last week the government was defiant, sending out police with rubber bullets. government was defiant, sending out police with rubber bulletsm government was defiant, sending out police with rubber bullets. if we look at the 2014 yellow umbrella movement and the stand—off, the hong kong government won in the end. recently it was the 30th anniversary of the tiananmen democracy movement and we know how that ended. that was beijing, not hong kong, and we know how that in

beijing, not hong kong, and we know howthat in a beijing, not hong kong, and we know how that in a way, it was slightly surprising for carrie lam to step down and suspend the vote. 0vernight she was reported to have met with the minister for hong kong from beijing and no one knew what they discussed but my suspicion is this is people power and the demonstrators are winning this round but it was the result of international pressure, for example donald trump indicated he could bring this up at g20 meetings with she ching

—— xijinping. lots of different active groups. we will come back to the international dimension at the moment butjust to look at the international dimension at the moment but just to look at the action on the streets of hong kong, what was really noticeable on this occasion was the support that the protesters had both from elements in the business community, the legal community, it wasn't just young students. that was important for any scholars of chinese history, china has had a long history of student led movements that ended up in failure. 30 years ago, when those stu d e nts failure. 30 years ago, when those students went to tiananmen square, the big learning was we must do something that was different then the may the 4th movement in 1990, it

involved more people. student protests have never been successful in china. but with a broader support and the voices of young people have become stronger. the uk has treaty obligations to hong kong until 2047, this 50 year period of autonomy, one country this 50 year period of autonomy, one cou ntry two this 50 year period of autonomy, one country two systems, but the british government was slow to get involved in talking about this extradition bill, really only since we have seen people on the streets. was it fear of beijing or misreading the mood in hong kong. both of those but there isa hong kong. both of those but there is a vacuum in britain at the moment, ministers are not behaving normally. the foreign secretary is involved in a leadership contest. i don't think ministerial minds are focused very much on anything else, going on to iran in a moment, and to

some extent the same applies there. it is partly the fact that it is trying to manage, in a way, an arrangement that worked theoretically at the time but will be constantly challenged in practice because the power lies with china andl because the power lies with china and i think it will be a constant balancing act. a combination where eyes are off the ball in the uk at the moment plus a constant reading about where power really lies, it lies probably, even though this protest was successful, with the chinese government. there is a leadership change going on in europe so leadership change going on in europe so do you think the underlying issues are the same as those steve has mentioned in relation to the uk, the assessment of forces on each side? there are french citizens speaking here, it always pays off to

ta ke to speaking here, it always pays off to take to the street. the first round as victory for the people of hong kong, so it is a great thing to see from europe, but it is also... we are so from europe, but it is also... we are so far away and we fear that hong kong is doomed to eventually, you know, there is china but in 28 yea rs you know, there is china but in 28 years it is going to be completely china, not democratic china. some businessmen are moving their assets abroad and singapore and japan are going to welcome that very international community with a lot of ties to canada, europe and america, and it looks as if, if you look back five years ago to the umbrella movement, there was something about it, and although we

are seeing this from far away, i can only see despair and pessimism in hong kong, despite the great victory. if we take a long view, it looks to me like the last battle of hong kong. what do you think the us makes of all this? agnes says it is democratic china but there is limited democracy in hong kong and more democratic china is actually taiwan. how does the us see these forces aligned ? taiwan. how does the us see these forces aligned? it is how does the trump administration see things? who knows? 0ne trump administration see things? who knows? one of the problems with the chaotic international leadership of the trump administration is that you just don't know. i am sure that this will be used as a chip in any negotiations with china, with the straight wire drawing and every week there are two or three different stories coming from either side

about raising tariffs here and they are, besides getting angry. i don't think democracy enters into it. if the people in hong kong, the brave... cani the people in hong kong, the brave... can i say how remarkable it is? my twitter feed is full of hashtag resistors who send out nasty things about donald trump and think they are striking a blow for democracy. 1 million people from all walks of life went to the streets, they were not met with flowers, and this is an action for democracy. but in the trump administration it becomes this is a chip to play, or another sporting metaphor, hong kong does not want to be the football being kicked between china and the united states. i have not read anything about this from american congresspeople or anything but this is an action of democracy. on the

numbers, the protesters said they had those numbers but the police say far fewer. but we saw the pictures. i want to go to beijing and strategic objectives and how it sees its strategic direction in hong kong. it must be a difficult moment for the chinese communist party which likes to see itself as unassailable, invincible and likes to look like that on the street. which they still believe they are. they see this as a setback but also in the short term it is strategic because they have the donald trump meeting, the g20, the trade wire, they have biggerfish meeting, the g20, the trade wire, they have bigger fish to fry. 0n the other hand, over time, they have bigger fish to fry. 0n the other hand, overtime, i have they have bigger fish to fry. 0n the other hand, over time, i have to agree with agnes that you will see hong kong deteriorating, this autonomy, and we have already seen

it happen. in this protest people are already behaving very much as if they were in china. they don't talk to journalists, they don't want to give their names, they wear masks so they will not be photographed. the fear of victimisation long term? yes. it is different from the yellow umbrellas. hong kong is becoming more like china. china knows. playing a long game. yes. now we have to talk about iran. as on may 12th, so onjune 13th. except bigger. attacks on two tankers in shipping's most sensitive chokepoint. this time with fires that force the crews of both ships to evacuate. the us says iran is responsible. on friday it released grainy video to back up the charge. iran hotly denies it. an aircraft carrier strike force is close by.

how do you read this situation? this is probably an escalation of two long—term antagonists who at the moment, my guess is, in washington the war with iran faction is now in the war with iran faction is now in the white house, john bolton, mike pompeo, so they are pushing for aggressive action. do they really wa nt aggressive action. do they really want a aggressive action. do they really wanta war? aggressive action. do they really want a war? i don't think they really wa nt want a war? i don't think they really want a war, i think they would like regime change if they could, they cannot, and in iran you have the revolutionary guard and they have factions but we don't get to know much about it because you can't operate as a journalist in iran. the question about war is

important here. people get upset we are going to have war. i remind people that iran kidnapped 52 american diplomats and kept them hostage for a year, we didn't go to war. the blow—up 250 marines in beirut, we didn't go to war. 0ver the last 40 years, where we are now isa the last 40 years, where we are now is a lot of tension and it may increase incrementally, but we don't think about the other player here, which is russia. in iran and russia are involved in syria and intimately connected, geographically they are intimately connected, it is only a 500 miles drive from russia's main western caspian sea port to iran. if you put these factors together you think if russia wants to intervene here, is there going to be a war? no mac. but there will be tension. that

is there a great game you have set out and on the other side there are the uae and saudi arabia and regional rivals. 0n the direct question of who actually attacked these tankers? i really worry about these tankers? i really worry about the rush. you would think all signs point to iran, even though foreign 0ffice today said, yesterday, jeremy hunt said on balance we think it is iran. but steve eloquently and briefly pointed out that nobody is really paying much attention at that level in the british government so they may just be level in the british government so they mayjust be echoing america. you have to say who benefits from doing this? they didn't sink anything, they made a point, the japanese owner of one of the tankers said it wasn't landmines it was something that flew in and hit the side of the vessel. at and it happened on the day the japanese prime minister was in tehran.

exactly. we have spoken about the 620 exactly. we have spoken about the g20 meeting. at the end of this month there is supposed to be a big meeting in bahrain where the us is going to present its plan for israel, palestine peace. ithink going to present its plan for israel, palestine peace. i think it is about getting attention and, lord knows, we are talking about it so they got attention. what about the european perspective on this? are the europeans blaming iran or the trump administration for tearing up the nuclear deal? they haven't been as quick as the uk to concur with donald trump's evidence. germany said we need more evidence. i don't think president maccarone hasn't said anything yet. —— emmanuel macron. all of this is the result of

the undiplomatic result of trump withdrawing from the nuclear deal. how does that relate? the diplomacy of trump regarding iran is all caution. we will cripple your economy, more sanctions, and what is therefore iran? iran made a real effort with the agreement. it was not a perfect agreement but it was something. and actually a few weeks ago iran said if you are really wanting to ruin the economy they will take measures so perhaps it is those attacks. talking about leaving the question open, the opposition in the question open, the opposition in the uk, jeremy corbyn, said we should not be rushing tojudgment on this. where does that leave him?

should not be rushing tojudgment on this. where does that leave him7m leaves him making a distinct point and he will get criticised for it but in my view it is quite helpful to have a british political leader not automatically rushing to assume that the us judgment on this is right. quite unusual in british politics. normally a labour opposition leader will feel so under pressure to show they are responsibility to lead as a potential prime minister they would follow the orthodoxy. jeremy corbyn does not do that and now he is condemned as anti—american instinctively. i think when the evidence is not definitive it is healthy to have a sceptical voice as prominent as the leader of the 0pposition and quite unusual, not for him, but in british politics over the last 30 years where there is an immediate consensus which often proves to be wrong. is an immediate consensus which often proves to be wronglj is an immediate consensus which often proves to be wrong. i don't wa nt to often proves to be wrong. i don't want to leave china out of this

discussion. global economic superpower, huge growing interest in that region, and both those tankers we re that region, and both those tankers were bound for asia, so where does china sit on these issues? china is one of the largest importers of oil from iran, a huge customer, and china has always said that when trump withdrew from the deal that this would happen, the tensions would rise in the region, and china has always been against the move. china together with south korea and japan had exemptions from importing oil until recently, november of last year, when trump cancelled that, so ina way year, when trump cancelled that, so in a way that was the last lifeline for iran's economy and now it is being strangled. it is not out of the question that iran would have to react and this has been predicted by

many countries, china included. we will leave that topic now. here in the uk we're less than one week into the conservative party contest to find a new leader, and a prime minister to lead the country out of its brexit crisis. but several candidates have already fallen by the wayside. is the frontrunner heading for a coronation? steve ? steve? the front runner being boris johnson, former foreign secretary, stand—up comedian, various other things he has done at various points. i don't think it will be a coronation, i think the contest must continue into what becomes the last two candidates, like a whodunnit going to the party membership. i don't think the membership would allow or want a coronation before they get the chance for that. but thatis they get the chance for that. but that is the speculation in westminster that there are forces to try and wrap it up. they might say

that brexit is so important that the should not extend it unnecessarily. i think there will be a contest that goes to the party membership. what i find interesting about this contest is that, more than most leadership contests, all kinds of extraordinarily wild pledges are being made, as if this new prime minister would be elected into a parliament in which he or she could do what they wanted, but what is unusual about the contest as it is taking place in a hung parliament, so taking place in a hung parliament, so the new prime minister will have no control over that parliament. leading ina no control over that parliament. leading in a hung parliament demands almost impossible skills, patience, cunning, charm, mastery of detail, accepting defeats and moving on and eve ryo ne accepting defeats and moving on and everyone who has experience that goes through forms of political

hell. it seems as though none of the candidates are addressing that context. they say we will be out of the eu by october, tax cuts here, tax cuts there, it will not get through a hung parliament. the skills of a potential leader in that situation have not been tested or even raised as an issue so far in what has been a kind of fantastical contest. i think the joke about the unicorns in the brexit deal have now extended to the entirety of the leadership contest. we never talk aboutjeremy leadership contest. we never talk about jeremy corbyn when we talk about jeremy corbyn when we talk about brexit and the conservative party but one of the dynamics i have noticed is that for this system to work, and it's true in the us as well, there has to be a viable opposition to keep the abstracts of

the political process is going, like a bicycle, it has to turn over or it falls over. because of the nature of the labour leadership, that buttressing simply doesn't exist and so buttressing simply doesn't exist and so if there was a plausible opposition you wouldn't have a dozen anybody contesting this leadership, there would be one or two plausible candidates, because labour would be presenting a plausible opposition platform but because labour is absent on brexit, which is the big question confronting the country, trying to have it both ways, because jeremy corbyn hasn't built on the surprise result of 2017, it allows the conservative party to go into cloud cuckoo land, which is what it seems like, and you end up with borisjohnson. a year ago on seems like, and you end up with boris johnson. a year ago on this programme when we had conservative

voices on, i was told borisjohnson will never be prime minister because the parliamentary party, the conservative parliamentary party hates him, and here we are a year later and he is going to be crowned. agnes. where do we start? there is only one candidate that is facing reality, and his name is rory stewart, but he doesn't stand a chance of being elected. what is the reality he is facing that others aren't? all the others say they are going to renegotiate but this is not going to renegotiate but this is not going to renegotiate but this is not going to happen. all they can do is to discuss the political declaration with brussels, with the eu. rory stewart is the only one to say... he is not confrontational. you can see how perhaps being very different

from theresa may, he could build a consensus in parliament. but let's not talk about him because he is not going to be elected. boris johnson says, on your point about what is not negotiable, he doesn't believe that because he believes the closer you get to a possible no deal then brussels will change its mind. brussels will change its mind. brussels is very familiar with boris johnson from various different episodes in his career as a journalist, brexiteer, foreign secretary. do they think bring it on when the sea borisjohnson so far in the lead or are the brooding and muttering? i think both. they are bewildered like the rest of us in europe. this national exercise in self harm is bewildering to watch. you don't like seeing a friend self harming, basically. boris johnson, the problem is it is a deadly

combination between narcissism and laziness and you don't achieve anything in politics, especially negotiating, with 27 other members, with that quality. diane? agnes is not a big fan of borisjohnson but his supporters say he will bring energy and charisma. his supporters say he will bring energy and charismalj his supporters say he will bring energy and charisma. i think the function of the tory leadership election, it is a reflection of the dysfunction of politics in the country where only one item has been catching attention for the past three years and exhausted everyone's energy, so three years and exhausted everyone's energy, so it becomes who can promise the biggest and best solution and one single solution alone? and whether it will be achieved or not, it is completely cast to the side. that is the

reality that this contest represents, so reality that this contest represents, so we reality that this contest represents, so we are not looking at the quality required for a prime minister. coming back to you, stephen, we are running short of time, but these type of messages suggest that perhaps another few weeks of this contest is not really what the nation, or what some will want. i think they will because theresa may if you remember got crowned with the thorny crown of prime minister after a very short contest prime minister after a very short co ntest a nd prime minister after a very short contest and she wasn't really tested so contest and she wasn't really tested soi contest and she wasn't really tested so i think they will continue with the contest. i did worse than your fellow panellists saying a year ago that he wouldn't get it, i wrote a column! i thought all the rules of politics suggested he wouldn't get it but i think what has changed... why? there was a hysteria around him

and candidates like that don't tend to win. what has changed as donald trump has given permission for candidates to appear with epic floors and win. and nigel farage is this character especially on brexit and they feel they need a winner in that context and they think it is him. that is why he is the clear favourite when a year ago people said he would make it to the last two. that's it for dateline london for this week. we're back next week at the same time. goodbye.

if you like this cool showery weather i guess it is good news for you, it looks like it will continue for quite some time. tomorrow might bea for quite some time. tomorrow might be a little chilly around western and southern coasts. the breeze will pick up coming off the atlantic. low pressure with us today, you can see the clouds circling around the low pressure weather fronts, and this pattern has been stuck across the uk for a long time now and for as long as this low pressure is here the weather will not change. cool across north—western europe, central southern and eastern areas and even scandinavia in the midst of a relentless heat wave. southern parts of the uk, into the midlands and the north—west, a few showers in scotla nd north—west, a few showers in scotland as well, it has rained so far today across the east of northern ireland but the anticipation is that later in the day it will be much brighter.

temperatures up to around 19 at best. showers will continue moving east through the course of this evening and then later on many of us are having some clear skies during the evening. temperatures on sunday hovering around 8 degrees in belfast to maybe 12 in the very far south of the uk. 0n to maybe 12 in the very far south of the uk. on sunday, low pressure is still with us, like a broken record, weather fronts moving in still with us, like a broken record, weatherfronts moving in our direction so that means a showery day for a lot of us. a south—westerly breeze around western and southern coasts, frequent clouds and southern coasts, frequent clouds and showers moving through, plenty across scotland, northern ireland as well. temperatures might get up to 20 but i suspect it will feel cooler in the breeze. a little change into monday, lots of showers around but

in different places. probably more frequent showers in western scotland and northern ireland but fewer showers in wales and england and perhaps a little bit warmer as well. if you want something a little warmer it will be turning a bit warmer it will be turning a bit warmer during the course of the week but after that it looks as though things will cool off once again.

this is bbc news. the headlines at 12... a climb down by hong kong's leadership — after mass protests over their controversial extradition law. the council will halt its work in relation to the bill until our working communication explanation and listening to opinions is completed. the gulf tanker explosions: two senior cabinet ministers accuse jeremy corbyn of not backing britain's interests by questioning if there's "credible evidence" for the attacks. a major review of hospital food after the deaths of five patients from listeria is announced in england. hundreds more people are urged to leave their homes in lincolnshire because of flooding, brought on by heavy rain. and click travels to los angeles for the biggest gaming convention in the world.