the us and iran, back from the brink, or toe to toe, with the rest of us roped behind them, on the very brink? and you know that old saying — "behind every great man, there's a great woman"? well, this weekend, british media focus on domestic arrangements for the next resident of number 10 downing st. my my guests today do, political commentator tim montgomerie, writer and broadcaster geoffrey coffman, mina al—oraibi, editor of in english language news service for the middle east. with warplanes already in the air, he stopped to think. in a series of tweets on friday, president trump confirmed what us media had reported the night before — that the us intended to retaliate after iran shot down its spy drone, but donald trump stood down air strikes at the last moment.

that is one for you, geoffrey. how worried does this make you? the interesting thing about this decision is that it is the right decision, but we should not be sleeping any better because of it. this is a man still running a real estate empire, and he has no understanding of the consequence of brinksmanship, uncertain outcome of this kind of thing, and it'sjust all rings false. i'm worried about 150 deaths. he didn't seem to be worrying about 150,000 children. to my knowledge, it is the first time he has shown empathy in his political life. so i don't think that makes sense. are you worried about the idea he expressed in those tweets yesterday, or friday, that idea of proportionality stood him down with seconds to go? shouldn't that be thought about sooner?

absolutely, and i'm sure it was. you do not have planned air of this nature without a report that says here is the target, he was the number of civilians, this is the estimated cattle to count overnight, shall we do this or not, what time of day? the notion that he said, how many people are going to get killed... one of the planes were already in the skies. itjust doesn't work that way. the pentagon isa doesn't work that way. the pentagon is a much more professional organisation, and as usual, he is kind of freelancing this. what is really interesting is to look at his advisers in photos and videos, secretary of state mike pompeo, who really wa nted secretary of state mike pompeo, who really wanted to do this, his national security advisers. and i think the thing about trump is, he is unpredictable even to himself. i think it is fine that he pulled

back, but this is such a volatile game he is playing. mina al-oraibi, looking at it from the middle east, from the gulf, not exactly in a predictable area itself. the other revolutionary guard, they have shot down as i would lay a spy drone, they are denying that they were involved in the tank attacks. but who is in charge of rhenium policy here? it seems very clear that the revolutionary guard corps are really leading the charge. however, this report directly to the supreme leader, the reigning government likes to play the idea that there is the government and good cop bad cop kind of scenario. but at the end of the day, it is the supreme leader, they would not do something without they would not do something without the approval of the highest decision—maker in the country. sol think that is very important to state. so that is why that decision took place? it would have to be, because it would lead to an actual war. and this comes after the tanker attacks, so it was notjust, here is attacks, so it was notjust, here is a spy attacks, so it was notjust, here is a spy drone, it has been struck down

and it is on its own in isolation from all the build—up that has been happening in the region. going back to the trump decision point, of course one concern is to the trump decision point, of course one concern is that there is not a us secretary of defence and people are concerned about what is going on in the us, but this is not the first time we have seen us back in fourth and strikes. —— back and forth. this lack of leadership in the us is really problematic at a time when people used to look to the us for leadership. so in the wider world, there is concern that we are close to a potential military strike. had there been a military strike, what comes next? this is the other thing people are asking, what if there was a surgical strike? there is no such thing. can i get your answer to the point we heard from jeffrey? who is in charge on the us side, a slightly switching cast of outsiders? what are people in the middle east saying, what are regional powers into the trump administration, are they picking up

the phone? i don't know personally if they are picking up the phone, but there is constant back and forth. constant reported phone calls are happening with leaders in the region. iraq is very important in this and that there have been multiple rocket strikes on american bases. these are either from iranian—backed militias, not directly from iran, orfrom iranian—backed militias, not directly from iran, or from those that are proxies for iran. that is very worrying, so iraq is also speaking to the americans and saying, we need to cool down the temperature. but that isn'tjust going to washington, the same needs to be said to attack iran. sites can crush the rest of the region if this gets out of control. and the wider context of this is the nuclear deal thatis context of this is the nuclear deal that is unravelling as we speak. there is going to be an international summit at the end of the week, on the 28th, with russia, china, britain, france, germany and the eu, trying essentially to convince tehran to give up the deal. the are dealing government has

started the production of uranium. and they are saying they will breach the limit this week coming. exactly. so far, the eea has not reported a violation, but in the meantime, they have government has said if the european union does not come for them, with regards to the sections of the united states, they will pull out of the deal. in the united states was the first one to pull out of the deal. and here we are in a very unstable, very dramatic situation. so the wider picture is if tempers are not cooled down both in washington and tehran, we are going to be in a very unstable situation. i'll come back to europe ina situation. i'll come back to europe in a moment, but what about the uk, tim? because we have got commercial airlines having to read it, we have got oil prices rising, shipping costs rising, the uk is a very traditional big player in the middle east. what is it doing about all of this? a foreign office ministers wa nted this? a foreign office ministers wanted to run on saturday, matching the diplomatic efforts coming from

germany and france. —— a foreign 0ffice minister is going to iran. but as eunice says, there is a role for the uk but as eunice says, there is a role forthe uk and but as eunice says, there is a role for the uk and trying to say probably an impossible task now and saving the arms treaty with iran. i think the main players now are america and iran, and i take exempt almost everything jeffrey said about donald trump, but i think one thing that should be noted about him is he is probably the least neo—con presently republican party has had in the white house for some time. pa rt in the white house for some time. part of its success in winning the republican nomination was as repudiation of the bush for example in iraq, undertaking us pre—emptive action. so yes, he has mishandled this whole affair in the deciding at the last minute, allegedly when planes were on the runway, that he wa nted planes were on the runway, that he wanted to abort the mission. that is insta nt wanted to abort the mission. that is instant is not to attack. he wants america first. ifind instant is not to attack. he wants america first. i find that not a particularly attractive policy, we

need american leadership in the world, but he will not attack iran u nless world, but he will not attack iran unless tehran continues to provoke, which it does seem to be in danger of doing, which is the worry. that is the fear, because if you keep pushing... we all thought that the straight of her most a third of oil goes through daily, we have got a quarter of the world's gas going through it, we thought that was the la st through it, we thought that was the last line the iranians would ever attack. and while they continued, it makes no sense, who else would actually do it? but again, the fact that the us wouldn't react to that, the concern then is what does that signal to the iranians? all of this is about signalling. the fact the iranians do not feel deterred from pushing the next boundary is really concerning. coming back to jeffrey for a concerning. coming back to jeffrey fora minute, on the concerning. coming back to jeffrey for a minute, on the point that tim and mina are making, because obviously trump faces a re—election campaign next year. he has been a

not a supporter of foreign adventures. he has some staff, as you describe, is wanting another foreign adventure despite the problems with the last one. so where does all the coercive diplomacy set in the long run? i think, as we have discussed before around the table, the rules have changed with trump, andi the rules have changed with trump, and i think one of the... it is not and i think one of the... it is not a good consequence, but the iranians themselves are as stamped as we are at understanding how to navigate trump. soi at understanding how to navigate trump. so i think the fact that he pulled back from this far, will that be seen as an olive branch? will they continue hostile actions or aggressive actions? or will they just see him as a paper tiger? yes, because he has done the same on north korea. we know he is a schoolyard bully, he likes to say, i am going to stop you, but when it comes to it, he pulls his punches. —— going to sock you. but the consequences of his diplomacy are

apocalyptic at times. it is just not apocalyptic at times. it is just not 9, apocalyptic at times. it is just not a game, the fact he does not do his homework, he does not listen to advisers, he freelances based on his famous trumpian gut, that is what we are facing. and just address for a moment where it sits with his domestic electorate, because he has said, ido domestic electorate, because he has said, i do not want war with iran, but if we have to have war, the us will obliterate iran, what does talking about adulterating a country of 80 million people do at home with his electorate? do they like that or it just like that? his electorate? do they like that or itjust like that? i think we have to ta ke itjust like that? i think we have to take it, as much as... we know 110w to take it, as much as... we know now that those tweets don't really reflect much more than a lot of hot air, and he likes to make these kind of outrageous statements. they are not defensible, they are not positive, they are not good and they are not helpful, but what he says and what he means are not aligned. so we just buy now, two and a half yea rs into so we just buy now, two and a half years into this, needs to understand that this man will say things, he

shoots from the hip, he doesn't think of the consequences, and he is totally fine at changing his tone tomorrow. but he undermines completely the authority of the united states globally, because the body will trust him. he makes empty threats, he is a buffoon threatening to obliterate the well, but in the end he will not do it because he will give end he will not do it because he willgive up... end he will not do it because he will give up... to be fair, as mina said, barack 0bama also had a red line that he allows to be crossed. and it hurt him, truly discredited him. trump seems to have impunity on so him. trump seems to have impunity on so many of these issues. for his base, they love his swagger, and they know, when you look at interviews, and you look at an analysis of his base, they go, he doesn't really mean it, but ijust love that he says it that way. so he is playing to his base. love that he says it that way. so he is playing to his baselj love that he says it that way. so he is playing to his base. i think we are being fartoo is playing to his base. i think we are being far too harsh on the trump ear. there are plenty of other presidents. if hillary clinton had beenin presidents. if hillary clinton had been in the white house, george w bush, or marco rubio had been in the

white house, there might well have been conflict by now. i accept what has been said about his erratic character, and that is not a good thing, but i think is underlying instinct is that he does not want to ta ke instinct is that he does not want to take america into war, think a lot of people around the world will be grateful for that. and on plenty of things, trying to make peace with north korea, for example, i think is aggressive position towards china on free trade and tariffs, there is ple nty free trade and tariffs, there is plenty in trump's foreign policy thatis plenty in trump's foreign policy that is very clear. but on this issue, i think some of us are very pleased that we don't have a trigger—happy pleased that we don't have a trigger— happy president. pleased that we don't have a trigger-happy president. one last question on his original allies in the middle east and in the gulf, where exactly do they stand on the trigger—happy us president, or not trigger—happy? trigger—happy us president, or not trigger-happy? nobody else wants another war trigger-happy? nobody else wants anotherwar in the trigger-happy? nobody else wants another war in the region. we cannot afford it in terms of life, or resources, but they are concerned for several reasons. one is the trump administration first said this is not about the nuclear deal, it is about iran's activities in the

region, whether it is lebanon, iraq and so forth, there are concerns about what iran is doing. so one moment, that was how the trump administration started this. then trump started to say, as long as iran does not have nuclear weapons, we are ok with them. so with a lack ofa we are ok with them. so with a lack of a clear strategy of where the us sta nce of a clear strategy of where the us stance on iraq, it worries the gulf allies and arab allies, because they are concerned about iran's activities in the region. it is not just about nuclear deals. and there we have to leave it, a worrying week in us we have to leave it, a worrying week inus— we have to leave it, a worrying week in us — iran, and it willingly can possibly next weekend, we will come back to it if we need to. critics have always said boris johnson was probably his own most dangerous enemy. and certainly at the end of a week which gave him an almost unassailable lead in the race to be the next conservative leader and british prime minister, the frontrunner seems to have tripped himself up. a blazing row with his partner caused neighbours to call police and ignited all the questions about "character" that his campaign team had worked so hard to stifle.

tim, one for you, tim, one foryou, how tim, one for you, how damaging tim, one foryou, how damaging is all this? i should declare first of all this? i should declare first of all that i am a supporter of boris johnson in the race to be conservative leader, so i may be impartial. let's look at the facts of this case. if there was domestic violence of any kind account, i would absolutely withdraw my support from borisjohnson, would absolutely withdraw my support from boris johnson, i would absolutely withdraw my support from borisjohnson, iwould regard them as unfit to be prime minister. that is far from established. what we know is that on a hot summer english knight, probably with the windows open, too much wine was perhaps drunk, and neighbours overheard something that seems to be raised voices. police arrived, and we ask of everyone was safe and well, and the couple confirmed both we re well, and the couple confirmed both were well and safe, and the police went away. as far as i'm concerned, until boris‘ partner comes forward and was to say she was abused in any way, this is a non—story and a private matter that we should not be spending too much time on. if she

came forward with allegations, then boris‘ candidacy is toast, and justifiably. but i don't think we are in that territory yet, and i think we need to be very careful... i hear you, however, think we need to be very careful... i hearyou, however, it think we need to be very careful... i hear you, however, it does bring the spotlight back on to his domestic arrangements. he is still not divorced from his wife, there is this partner who, you know, she was, ironically, credited with discipline on dietand ironically, credited with discipline on diet and drinking. so it does all of this, raise unavoidable questions about character again, doesn't it?|j don't think there will be a person in britain, probably not many people overseas watching this programme, who will be surprised to learn that borisjohnson who will be surprised to learn that boris johnson hasn't who will be surprised to learn that borisjohnson hasn't been always faithful to one partner throughout his life. that is not a great surprise. i think a conservative party members that i know very well from my time editing the conservative 0wn website, a grassroots website, i think they are much more interested in what boris johnson is to do to try and fix the

whole brexit situation. we will come back to that, i just going whole brexit situation. we will come back to that, ijust going to let eve ryo ne back to that, ijust going to let everyone else had a quick go on this domestic. eunice, a nonstory, just a couple having a row, with ideological driven neighbours causing mischief? i agree with tim, i don't that we should be too worried unless there is a story of domestic violence. the story goes on because the is also in the british press where personal things are made to blow up and become very big. far more serious, and in the end, would become a distraction, far more serious are questions about his suitability to be prime minister. for instance, his attention to detail, he was this week in a debate... on that thought, ijust wa nt to debate... on that thought, ijust want to get jeffrey debate... on that thought, ijust want to getjeffrey and mina on this, it will come back to all these questions. mina. i think it is this, it will come back to all these questions. mina. ithink it is about character, when you want to have the seat of office, the highest seat of office, in the country, you want to be the prime minister, you have an obligation to behave in a certain manner. it may be a burden, but it

comes with the responsibility of getting that seat, so it is a question of character, and that is what people will question. jeffrey, has mina been prudish, or...? no, i think she is right. that is a paradox and politicians right now. there are partitions like trump and maybe johnson who there are partitions like trump and maybejohnson who can break all the rules and say all these obscene things about what they want to do with women, and just sail along. and then there is the #metoo world, where politicians are destroyed, sometimes deservedly and sometimes less so because of things they have said or done. i think the question is, asjohnson said or done. i think the question is, as johnson in said or done. i think the question is, asjohnson in the first camp with impunity, the teflon politician, as we say in north america, or is he going to be held to account? i think it is about character, i don't think it is a non—story, tim, with all due respect. that is no allegation of physical abuse, and if it is important to... have you ever had a i’ow important to... have you ever had a row with your partner late at night?

not the night i was crowned heir apparent to the prime minister.|j think whistling through an open window to a politician... let's move on. ifi window to a politician... let's move on. if i hear window to a politician... let's move on. ifi hear my window to a politician... let's move on. if i hear my neighbour saying that, i too would call the police. the neighbours won't being nosy, they were worried. but the police found no issue, that is the key thing, andl found no issue, that is the key thing, and i think trying to pretend otherwise... let's leave that one there, because we have aired it. tim come onto the serious issues, then. does he have the stamina, the discipline, the focus, the clarity to deal with the next four weeks?” believe so, nothing he has a track record, particularly when he was mayor of london, for achieving great things for this global city. whether that was things like the olympics or the crossrail project, he got both of those off to start and on budget. crime fell in london when he was mayor, which is a very different situation from the one we face now. the key thing with borisjohnson

situation from the one we face now. the key thing with boris johnson as he needs a good team around him, he will need a good chief of staff, good downing street operation, and he will need very competent ministers at the top of his government. he will be more likely reagan i think, than a bill clinton or barack obama figure. he will give the big picture view of british government policy if he was to become prime minister, and it will become prime minister, and it will be for someone beneath him to get really involved in the detail that eunice mentioned earlier. so he will make a minestrone, and some the croutons. but i don't think he is very good at becoming the big picture, because apart from coming up picture, because apart from coming up witha picture, because apart from coming up with a slogan, that is not big picture. no—deal brexit, not a big picture, it is a slogan. so this is a big problem, and there are also questions of judgment. very a big problem, and there are also questions ofjudgment. very few times where he has actually spoken publicly, he says unguarded things that reflect an imperial mindset... imperial mindset? quoting kipling

while in myanmar, the list goes on a visually inappropriate statements he has made. which show a carelessness... or shall be teflon politician jeffrey was describing. yes, the impunity. you can get away with saying anything he wants because he has this funny character. i would even say he is charismatic, because he does not do impress people, people found him amusing, and he shocks, and he is different from other politicians. but being different from the traditional grey politician who knows a thing or two about policy— making, that politician who knows a thing or two about policy—making, that is not a bad thing. the next year ahead, the next years ahead, for britain, are going to be a really bumpy ride with britain leaving the european union. you need somebody at the helm, who actually has an understanding of all of these applications. i am not sure borisjohnson gives us of these applications. i am not sure

boris johnson gives us that.” of these applications. i am not sure boris johnson gives us that. i think he has such a lead overjeremy hunt. is this going to undermine his lead, and will the 100,000 odd tory party members who will now decide... so he has got 16 hustings what he stands alongside him, and answer questions alongside him, and answer questions alongside him, and answer questions alongside him from party members. alongside him, and answer questions alongside him from party membersm is going to be compelling television, isn't it? who thought we would be watching so carefully? but he is going to have to stumble a lot more before he loses that lead, i think the reality is that the party wa nts think the reality is that the party wants him, notjeremy hunt. but if he does stumble, and it is not beyond him, then it is an open question. mina? we will have to see it, like you said, what the party members want. it is interesting, because they are saying, you have to when the young people back. the average tory party member at ages 57 years old, so what they are thinking is, we need to get out of the eu and just move on. i think his position

at the 31st of october is a hard deadline for the uk to come out of the eu, is comforting to many people who feel like it is going to be three years since the vote, since the referendum, on leaving the eu, and sticking it through while the uk mumbles on while world politics is changing, is concerning to me. sol think that actually appeals to them, even though the details are not important, he thinks, the details are not important, we just go out. on the details, tim, yu says he is going to have to get a top team around him. he will have to deal with these 16 hustings. what are the key questions he and jeremy hunt will be pressed on? i think brexit will be pressed on? i think brexit will be pressed on? i think brexit will be the focus, and it is one of the reason i think what some of these 16 hustings should be themed ona these 16 hustings should be themed on a different issue. so one could be on the northern powerhouse, one of the great issues in the uk at the moment is the gap between the north and the south. in the housing crisis that people in london and the south—east face. i think we had a bbc debate earlier this week, and we had a channel for debate two days

earlier, it was brexit, brexit, brexit. i don't think that is what the country wants to hear, i don't that it the country wants to hear, i don't thatitis the country wants to hear, i don't that it is a good image for the conservative party. if a couple of the hustings, or even four orfive, we re the hustings, or even four orfive, were thinned and some of the other big issues, ithink were thinned and some of the other big issues, i think it would inform the public more about the kind of prime minister they would have come andi prime minister they would have come and i think it would be a good image for the conservative party that needs to be present itself to the british people. eunice, briefly on the brexit issue, europe is still very adamant that the withdrawal agreement cannot be unpicked. exactly. so those no deal exit general election questions will presumably be asked on the hustings? they are going to be asked, the i’uttioui's they are going to be asked, the rumours in westminster, westminster is awash with rumours about an early election. the question is, is an election. the question is, is an election going to be called over the summer or election going to be called over the summerorafter election going to be called over the summer or after the 31st of october when the deadline to leave the european union expires? in europe, what we have is a great sense of impatience, and you have wasted the six months, the extension we gave you, to think of a better way, to

find agreement, to build a consensus, to leave the european union, so that has been wasted. and there is no love for borisjohnson in the european union. he left a very bad... he has a very bad reputation in brussels. as lack of attention to detail, his disregard for the rules... lets not list boris‘ floors again. do you think the view from europe will be... yes, i think the sense of impatience. jeffrey? sorry, i will let you go first, go ahead. there, we are running out of time, a couple of sentences. for the eu, it is clear thatis sentences. for the eu, it is clear that is no renegotiation, and boris johnson is clear that we are going to get to a no—deal brexit, which is very worrying for the uk. jeffrey? i think the yougov poll we have not

talked about, a huge number of toadies it is worth destroying the united kingdom, if scotland leads on if ireland is reunited. it may be swagger, but this country is really ata swagger, but this country is really at a turning point that will ship it in ways that will change it forever. and on that thought, we have to leave it. that's it for dateline london for this week. we're back next week at the same time. goodbye. hello. nicely timed for the start of the weekend. high pressure, settled weather out there. many of us started the day like this. a view

from cumbria earlier, and skies will stay like this throughout. slight chance of an isolated shower, the vast majority will stay dry. going to feel a bit warmer as well. so this is how the big picture is looking. low pressure eventually will come in until monday, but for now, high pressure is in control, which is why we are expecting a fine saturday across the bulk of the uk. a bit of cloud across eastern parts of england this afternoon, which may produce an isolated shower. greater chance of catching the odd shower in northern scotland. and where it has been cloudy so far in northern ireland, sunny spells developing. around 18 to 21 celsius, 22 in cardiff and london. very high pollen levels in england and wales, though. this evening, barbecue in good shape, still a good chance of a shower of a northern scotland. just hence and there will be some outbreaks have rain getting closer to the far south—west of england later in the night. not quite as chilly as it was last night. back to the big picture, looking at part two of the weekend. this area high pressure getting closer and threw in

this weather front towards the south—west of the uk, high pressure still in control elsewhere, but now, after a fine start, there will be increasing cloud across the uk, the breeze are starting to pick up. maybe one or two showers, but the main area from that weather front we saw, just edging across more of south—east england and into northern ireland, some of it starting to turn heavy and thundery in places. perhaps doing a bit warmer, a touch cooler north sea coast, but more humid areas of south—east england. met office warnings for thunderstorms in parts of england and into scotland, northern ireland sing some rain, too. big variety of rain totals possible here, but certainly in have your burst, some of us could see a lot of rain. in a fairly short space of time as well, so fairly short space of time as well, so the potential for some flooding and distrusting going into monday. all pushing northwards to give a wet monday for scotland. may be up to

100 millimetres, especially at higher ground, saw the potentialfor disruption. a storming start to the week, turning hotter, 31 celsius possible in the hotspots. not everybody that hot.

you are. good afternoon. police were called to the london home of borisjohnson and his partner carrie symonds after and his partner carrie symonds after a neighbours reported hearing a loud argument in the early hours of friday morning. metropolitan police say all occupants of a house were

safe and well.