' ryan ryan or any other ' ryan or any other hostile actors should mistake us prudence and discretion for weakness. —— iran. president erdogan votes in a re—run of the istanbul mayoral election, that has become a test for turkish democracy. a trade union warns that some businesses are using teenagers as free labour by asking them to complete unpaid trial shifts. now, on bbc news, it's time for dateline london.

hello, and welcome to dateline london. i'm carrie gracie. this week: the us and iran — back from the brink or toe to toe, with the rest of us roped behind them, on the very brink? and you know that old saying, "behind every great man, there's a great woman"? well, this weekend, british media focus on domestic arrangements for the next resident of number 10 downing street. my guests today, political commentator tim montgomerie, writer and broadcaster jeffrey kofman, mina al—oraibi, who is editor of the national, an english language news service for the middle east, and politics professor and author eunice goes. with warplanes already in the air, he stopped to think. in a series of tweets on friday, president trump confirmed what us hello, and welcome to dateline london. in a series of tweets on friday, president trump confirmed what us media had reported the night before — that the us intended to retaliate after iran shot down its spy drone, but donald trump stood down air strikes at the last moment. that is one for you, jeffrey. how worried does this make you? the interesting thing about this decision is that it is the right

decision, but we should not be sleeping any better because of it. the erraticjourney to this decison suggests that this is a man still running a real estate empire, and he has no understanding of the consequence of brinksmanship, uncertain outcomes of this kind of braggadocio, and it just all rings false. "i'm worried about 150 deaths." he didn't seem to be worrying about thousands of children at the us border who were separated from their parents. to my knowledge, it is the first time he has shown empathy in his political life. so i don't think that makes sense. are you worried about the idea he expressed in those tweets on friday, that that idea of proportionality stood him down with seconds to go? shouldn't that have been thought about sooner? absolutely, and i'm sure it was. you do not have planned air strikes of this nature without a report that says "here is the target, here is the number of civilians, "this is the estimated

casualty count overnight, "shall we do this or not, what time of day?" the notion that he said, "how many people are going to get killed...?" when the planes were already in the skies. it just doesn't work that way. the pentagon is a much more professional organisation, and as usual, he is kind of freelancing this. what is really interesting is to look at his advisers in photos and videos, secretary of state mike pompeo, who really wanted to do this, his national security advisers. they really thought "yeah, we got this." and i think the thing about trump is, he is unpredictable even to himself. i think it is fine that he pulled back, but this is such a volatile game he is playing. mina, looking at it from the middle east, from the gulf, not exactly

in a predictable area itself. the iranian revolutionary guard, they have shot down allegedly a spy drone, they are denying that they were involved in the tanker attacks. but who is in charge of iranian policy here? it seems very clear that the revolutionary guard corps are really leading the charge. however, this report directly to the supreme leader, the reigning government likes to play the idea that there is the government and good cop bad cop kind of scenario. but at the end of the day, it is the supreme leader, they would not do something without the approval of the highest decision—maker in the country. so i think that is very important to state. so that is why that decision took place? it would have to be, because it would lead to an actual war. and this comes after the tanker attacks, so it was notjust, here is a spy drone, it has been struck down and it is on its own in isolation from all the build—up that has been happening in the region. going back to the trump decision point, of course one concern

is that there is not a us secretary of defence and people are concerned about what is going on in the us, but this is not the first time we have seen us back and forth in air strikes. this lack of leadership in the us is really problematic at a time when people used to look to the us for leadership. so in the wider world, there is concern that we are close to a potential military strike. had there been a military strike, what comes next? this is the other thing people are asking, what if there was a surgical strike? there is no such thing. can i get your answer to the point we heard from jeffrey? who is in charge on the us side, a slightly shifting cast of outsiders? what are people in the middle east saying, what are regional powers into the trump administration, are they picking up the phone? i don't know personally if they are picking up the phone, but there is constant back and forth. constant reported phone calls are happening with leaders in the region.

iraq is very important in this and that there have been multiple rocket strikes on american bases. exxon mobil was targeted again. these are either from iranian—backed militias, not directly from iran, or from those that are proxies for iran. that is very worrying, so iraq is also speaking to the americans and saying, we need to cool down the temperature. but that isn'tjust going to washington, the same needs to be said to tehran. sites can crush the rest of the region if this gets out of control. and the wider context of this is the nuclear deal that is unravelling as we speak. there is going to be an international summit at the end of the week, on the 28th, with russia, china, britain, france, germany and the eu, trying essentially to convince tehran to keep up the deal. the iranian government has started the production of uranium. and they are saying they will breach the limit this week coming. exactly. so far, the aae has not

reported a violation, but in the meantime, the iranian government has said if the european union does not come for them, with regards to the sanctions of the united states, they will pull out of the deal. the united states was the first one to pull out of the deal. and here we are in a very unstable, very dramatic situation. so the wider picture is if tempers are not cooled down both in washington and tehran, we are going to be in a very unstable situation. i'll come back to europe in a moment, but what about the uk, tim? because we have got commercial airlines having to reroute, we have got oil prices rising, shipping costs rising, the uk is a very traditional big player in the middle east. what is it doing about all of this? a foreign office minister is going to iran on saturday, matching the diplomatic efforts coming from germany and france. but as eunice says, there is a role for the uk and trying to say

probably an impossible task now and saving the arms treaty with iran. i think the main players now are america and iran, and i accept almost everything jeffrey said about donald trump, but i think one thing that should be noted about him is he is probably the least neo—con president the republican party has had in the white house for some time. part of its success in winning the republican nomination was as repudiation of the bush dactrine for example in iraq, undertaking us pre—emptive action. so yes, he has mishandled this whole affair in the deciding at the last minute, allegedly when planes were on the runway, that he wanted to abort the mission. his instinct is not to attack. he wants america first. i find that not a particularly attractive policy, we need american leadership in the world, but he will not attack iran unless tehran continues to provoke, which it does seem to be in danger of doing, which is the worry.

that is the fear, because if you keep pushing... we all thought the strait of hormuz, a third of oil goes through daily, we have got a quarter of the world's gas going through it, we thought that was the last line the iranians would ever attack. and while they continued, it makes no sense, who else would actually do it? but again, the fact that the us wouldn't react to that, the concern then is what does that signal to the iranians? all of this is about signalling. trump making last minute changes signals something. the fact the iranians do not feel deterred from pushing the next boundary is really concerning. coming back tojeffrey for a minute, on the point that tim and mina are making, because obviously trump faces a re—election campaign next year. he has been a not a supporter of foreign adventures. he has some staff, as you describe,

who want another foreign adventure despite the problems with the last one. so where does all the coercive diplomacy set in the long run? i think, as we have discussed before around the table, the rules have changed with trump, and i think one of the... it is not a good consequence, but the iranians themselves are as stamped as we are at understanding how to navigate trump. so i think the fact that he pulled back from this far, will that be seen as an olive branch? will they continue hostile actions or aggressive actions? or will they just see him as a paper tiger? yes, because he has done the same on north korea. that's the danger. we know he is a schoolyard bully, he likes to say, "i am going to sock you," but when it comes to it, he pulls his punches. but the consequences of his diplomacy are apocalyptic at times. it is just not a game, the fact he does not do his homework, he does not listen to advisers, he freelances based on his famous trumpian gut,

that is what we are facing. and just address for a moment where it sits with his domestic electorate, because he has said, "i do not want war with iran, but if we have to have war, the us will obliterate iran," what does talking about doing that to a country at home with his electorate? do they like that or itjust like that? i think we have to take it, as much as... we know now that those tweets don't really reflect much more than a lot of hot air, and he likes to make these kind of outrageous statements. they are not defensible, they are not positive, they are not good and they are not helpful, but what he says and what he means are not aligned. so we just by now, two and a half years into this, need to understand that this man will say things, he shoots from the hip, he doesn't think of the consequences, and he is totally fine at changing his tone tomorrow. but he undermines completely the authority of the united states

globally, because no one will trust him. he makes empty threats, he is a buffoon threatening to obliterate the well, but in the end he will not do it because he will give up... to be fair, as mina said, barack obama also had a red line that he allowed to be crossed. and it hurt him, truly discredited him. trump seems to have impunity on so many of these issues. for his base, they love his swagger, and they know, when you look at interviews, and you look at an analysis of his base, they go, "he doesn't really mean it, but ijust love that he says it that way." so he is playing to his base. i think we are being far too harsh on the trump here. there are plenty of other presidents. if hillary clinton had been in the white house, george w bush, or marco rubio had been in the white house, there might well have been conflict by now. i accept what has been said about his erratic character, and that is not a good thing, but i think is underlying

instinct is that he does not want to take america into war, i think a lot of people around the world will be grateful for that. and on plenty of things, trying to make peace with north korea, for example, i think his aggressive position towards china on free trade and tariffs, there is plenty in trump's foreign policy that is very clear. but on this issue, i think some of us are very pleased that we don't have a trigger—happy president. one last question on his original allies in the middle east and in the gulf, where exactly do they stand on the trigger—happy us president, or not trigger—happy? nobody else wants another war in the region. we cannot afford it in terms of life, or resources, but they are concerned for several reasons. one is the trump administration first said this is not about the nuclear deal, it is about iran's activities in the region, whether it is lebanon, iraq and so forth, there are concerns about what iran is doing. so one moment, that was how the trump administration started this. then trump started to say,

as long as iran does not have nuclear weapons, we are ok with them. so with a lack of a clear strategy of where the us stands on iran, it worries the gulf allies and arab allies, because they are concerned about iran's activities in the region. it is notjust about nuclear deals. and there we have to leave it, a worrying week in us — iran, and it willingly can possibly next weekend, we will come back to it if we need to. critics have always said borisjohnson was probably his own most dangerous enemy. and certainly at the end of a week which gave him an almost unassailable lead in the race to be the next conservative leader and british prime minister, the frontrunner seems to have tripped himself up. a blazing row with his partner caused neighbours to call police and ignited all the questions about "character" that his campaign team had worked so hard to stifle. tim, one foryou, how damaging is all this? i should declare first of all that i am a supporter of borisjohnson in the race to be conservative leader, so i may be partial.

let's look at the facts of this case. if there was domestic violence of any kind, i would absolutely withdraw my support from boris johnson, i would regard them as unfit to be prime minister. that is far from established. what we know is that on a hot summer english night, probably with the windows open, too much wine was perhaps drunk, and neighbours overheard something that seems to be raised voices. police arrived, and they asked if everyone was safe and well, and the couple confirmed both were well and safe, and the police went away. now, as far as i'm concerned, until boris' partner carrie symmonds comes forward and was to say she was abused in any way, this is a non—story and a private matter that we should not be spending too much time on. if she came forward with allegations, then boris's candidacy is toast, and justifiably. but i don't think we are in that territory yet, and i think we need to be very careful...

i hear you, however, it does bring the spotlight back on to his domestic arrangements. he is still not divorced from his wife, there is this partner who, you know, she was, ironically, credited with discipline on diet and drinking. so it does all of this, raise unavoidable questions about character again, doesn't it? i don't think there will be a person in britain, probably not many people overseas watching this programme, who will be surprised to learn that borisjohnson hasn't been always faithful to one partner throughout his life. that is not a great surprise. i think we — i think the conservative party members that i know very well from my time editing the conservative home website, a grassroots website, i think they are much more interested in what borisjohnson is to do to try and fix the whole brexit situation. we will come back to that, i'm just going to let everyone else had a quick go on this domestic. eunice, a non—story?

just a couple having a row, with ideological—driven neighbours causing mischief? i agree with tim, i don't that we should be too worried unless there is a story of domestic violence. a prudishness in the press where personal things are made to blow up and become very big. far more serious, and in the end, would become a distraction, far more serious are questions about his suitability to be prime minister. for instance, his attention to detail, he was this week in a debate... hold that thought, ijust want to getjeffrey and mina on this, it will come back to all these questions. mina. i think it is about character, when you want to have the seat of office, the highest seat of office, in the country, you want to be the prime minister,

you have an obligation to behave in a certain manner. it may be a burden, but it comes with the responsibility of getting that seat, so it is a question of character, and that is what people will question. jeffrey, has mina been prudish, or...? no, i think she is right. clearly this is a grey area. that is a paradox and politicians right now. there are polititians like trump and maybejohnson who can break all the rules and say all these obscene things about what they want to do with women, and just sail along. and then there is the #metoo world, where politicians are destroyed, sometimes deservedly and sometimes less so because of things they have said or done. i think the question is, asjohnson in the first camp with impunity, the teflon politician, as we say in north america, or is he going to be held to account? i think it is about character, i don't think it is a non—story, tim, with all due respect. i agree, there is no allegation of physical abuse, and if it is, it's important to... have you ever had a row with your partner late at night? not the night i was crowned heir apparent to the prime minister. i think listening through an open window to a politician... let's move on.

i don't think that's fair. if i hear my neighbour saying that, i too would call the police. the neighbours weren't being nosy, they were worried. but the police found no issue, that's the key thing, and i think trying to pretend otherwise... let's leave that one there, because we have aired it. now, tim, onto the serious issues, then. does he have the stamina, the discipline, the focus, the clarity to deal with the next four weeks? i believe so, i think he he has a track record, particularly when he was mayor of london, for achieving great things for this global city. whether that was things like the olympics or the crossrail project, he got both of those off to start and on budget. crime fell in london when he was mayor, which is a very different situation from the one we face now. the key thing, i think, with borisjohnson is he needs a good team around him, he will need a good chief of staff, a good downing street operation, and he will need very competent ministers at the top

of his government. he will be more like a reagan i think, than a bill clinton or barack obama figure in the detail of everything. he will give the big picture view of british government policy if he was to become prime minister, and it will be for someone beneath him to get really involved in the detail that eunice mentioned earlier. so he will make a minestrone, and someone else will do the croutons? very good. but i don't think he is very good at becoming the big picture, because apart from coming up with a slogan, that is not big picture. no—deal brexit, not a big picture, this is a slogan. so this is a big problem, and there are also questions ofjudgment. very few few times where he has actually spoken publicly, he says unguarded things that reflect an imperial mindset... imperial mindset? well, quoting kipling while in myanmar, the list goes on of really inappropriate statements he has made. which show a carelessness...

or show the teflon politician jeffrey was describing. yes, the impunity. you can get away with saying anything he wants because he has this funny character. i wouldn't even say he is charismatic, because he does not impress people, people found him amusing, and he shocks, and he is different from other politicians. but being different from the traditional grey politician who knows a thing or two about policy—making, that is not a bad thing. the next year ahead, the next years ahead, for britain, are going to be a really bumpy ride with britain leaving the european union. you need somebody at the helm, that actually has an understanding of all of these implications. i am not sure boris johnson gives us that. i think he has such a lead overjeremy hunt. is this going to undermine his lead,

and will the 100,000—odd tory party members who will now decide... so he has got 16 hustings what he stands alongside him, and answer questions alongside him from party members. it's going to be compelling television, isn't it? who thought we'd be watching so carefully? but he is going to have to stumble a lot more before he loses that lead, i think the reality is that the party wants him, not hunt. but if he does stumble, and it's not beyond him, then it's an open question. mina? we will have to see it, like you said, what the party members actually want. it's interesting, because they are saying, you have to win the young people back. the average tory member's age is 57—years—old, so what they are thinking is, we need to get out of the eu and just move on. i think his position at the 31st of october is a hard deadline for the uk to come out of the eu, is comforting to many people who feel like it's going to be three years since the vote, since the referendum, on leaving the eu, and sticking it

through while the uk mumbles on while world politics is changing, is concerning to me. and tory members. so i think that actually appeals to them, even though the details are not important, he thinks, the details are not important, we just go out. on the details, tim, you say he is going to have to get a top team around him. he will have to deal with these 16 hustings. what are the key questions he and jeremy hunt are pressed on? i think brexit will be the focus, and it is one of the reason i think some of these 16 hustings should be themed on a different issue. so one could be on the northern powerhouse, one of the great issues in the uk at the moment is the gap between the north and the south. another issue is the housing crisis that people in london and the south—east face. i think we had a bbc debate earlier this week, and we had a channel a debate two days earlier, it was brexit, brexit, brexit. i don't think that is what the country wants to hear, i don't that it is a good image for the conservative party. if a couple of the hustings,

or even four orfive, were themed and some of the other big issues, i think it would inform the public more about the kind of prime minister they would have. i think it would be a good image for the conservative party that needs to be present itself to the british people. eunice, briefly on the brexit issue, europe is still very adamant that the withdrawal agreement cannot be unpicked. exactly. so, those no—deal exit general election referendum questions will presumably not be asked on the hustings? they are going to be asked, the rumours in westminster, westminster is awash with rumours about an early election. the question is, is an election going to be called over the summer or after the 31st of october, when the deadline to leave the european union expires? in europe, what we have is a great sense of impatience, and you have wasted the six months, the extension we gave you, to think of a better way, to find agreement, to build a consensus, to leave the european union, so that has been wasted. and there is no love for borisjohnson in the european union.

he left a very bad... he has a very bad reputation in brussels. his lack of attention to detail, his disregard for the rules of diplomacy... let's not list boris' flaws again. do you think the view from europe will be... yes, i think there's a sense of impatience. jeffrey? sorry, i will let you go first, go ahead. mina. we are running out of time, a couple of sentences. for the eu, it is clear that is no renegotiation, and borisjohnson is clear that we are going to get to a no—deal brexit, which is very worrying for the uk. jeffrey? i think the yougov poll we have not talked about yet, a poll of tory members, a huge number of toadies it is worth destroying the united kingdom, if scotland leaves or if ireland is reunited. it may be swagger, but this country

is really at a turning point that will shape it in ways that will change it forever. and on that thought, we have to leave it. that's it for dateline london for this week. we're back next week, same place, same time. goodbye. we are saying goodbye to a mainly cloudy sunday morning. there is a much brighter on the way this afternoon, in fact better for some of us. a lot of cloud around. some

spells of hazy sunshine. the blue is the rain from a weather system approaching the south—west of the uk. even where it will be dry this afternoon, there is a fair amount of cloud around. low pressure is taking over. this weather front is moving very slowly at the moment but it is in south—west england, wales, eventually parts of the midlands, northern ireland. wet weather will move them through the afternoon and into the evening. elsewhere there may be a few showers around, especially in the northern part of scotland. scotland will see the best of the sunny spells. mid 20s in the south—east of england. brazier across the uk and very high pollen levels in england and wales. there will be torrential, thundery downpours in northern england and eastern scotland into tomorrow. whenever you see some of these

downpours we could see high rentals in places. there are met office yellow warning or rain and thunderstorms for the next few days. not everyone will see the heavier downpours. there will be a few more breaking out of the storms, northern ireland, parts of england and wales, they will merge to give longer periods of rain. a good deal of cloud but the few bright spells here and there. anywhere from the high teens to the mid 20s in the south—east. still some downpours in scotla nd south—east. still some downpours in scotland for a time. perhaps torrential thundery rain and lightning running up parts of south—east england on monday night into tuesday morning. so a very busy start to the week. from wednesday onwards, high pressure becomes more dominant. increasing amounts of sunshine. the chance of an old storm. we will tap into hot air in

the continent and for southern and western parts of the uk, the heat will be on. some spots could be in the low 30s by the end of the week and into the start of the weekend. you can take a look at all the details on our website.

this is bbc news i'm ben brown. the headlines at 12: there's continued focus on borisjohnson's private life, after he failed to answer questions at a tory party leadership debate about why police were called to his house following reports of a row. reports say the us launched a cyber—attack on iranian weapons systems on thursday as president trump pulled out of air strikes on the country. iran nor other hostile actor confuse this with weakness. president erdogan votes in a re—run of the istanbul mayoral election that has become a test for turkish democracy. stoking international tension — researchers detail a russian