a no—deal brexit could be on the cards as both candidates in the race to be prime minister talk it up. we must leave the eu on october the sist. if the only way to the european union is without a deal, then i would do that. the man who led the government's brexit planning for the government speaks out for the first time. everyone should be worried about what happens in a no deal situation, it is a venture that is fraught with risk, there's no doubt about that. from sea to shore, some businesses fear it could force them under. we're very worried, because it could put us out of business. while others say it will bring new opportunities. i think no deal is preferable to a deal, there is an immediate benefit. i've travelled across the uk and beyond to ask, are we ready for a no—deal brexit?

if a no—deal brexit happens, this is where the greatest impact could be felt. the roads are britain's arteries, and lorries, its lifeblood, carrying much of what we need, make and sell. i'm hitching a ride to europe. hi! i'mjane. matt, nice to meet you. matt is one of the hundreds of thousands of lorry drivers in the uk. so matt, what have you got in the back? hanging fresh lambs. can we take a look? no problem at all. his lamb freom warwickshire is worth more than £100,000. it will end up in france and austria. it's a nice little family—run

company, we've got 18 drivers, with one driver per truck. we're on our way to dover, and over to calais. i don't think people realise the sheer volume that does travel in and out through ports around the country. if there's a no—deal brexit, there would be extra checks crossing into the eu — matt fears delays. it's going to cause problems with what we carry, it's perishable, it's all fresh meat, and we can't afford to be sitting, waiting to clear customs. and as things stand, there would be new tariffs or taxes under global trading rules. the government is going to waive tariffs temporarily on most goods coming in, but the eu could impose them on things we sell abroad. it will affect us. i have heard that there will be a tariff, a premium to buy, say welsh, or british lamb, what we transport.

and at the end of the day if it is going to cost more, people aren't going to buy them. tariffs and charges could make matt's lamb up to 70% more expensive. he worries that could mean less business. we are not doing as many loads in and out of the uk, the company is not making as much money and we could take a loss in our earnings. are you worried? yes. it is a bit of a dark cloud over the industry sort of thing, but it's not really spoken about. but i think there is a lot of people worried about it, yes. if there is a no—deal brexit on october the 31st, it means that we would leave the eu without a specific agreement on trade. there are big questions about the impact that would have across the uk, and whether we're ready for it. philip rycroft knows all about what might happen if there is no deal.

until march, he helped oversee the government's brexit planning. this has been an extraordinary exercise to which the civil service has responded brilliantly well. planning for exit, in particular no deal exit, has been, i think, the biggest exercise across government that we have seen over the past few decades. there's nothing really to compare with this, this is an unprecedented situation. the government set aside billions and the planning involves almost every area of our lives, but how much can it control what would happen? no deal is a step into the unknown, and it is a venture that fraught with risk, there's no doubt about that. is britain ready for no deal? the planning, i think, is in good shape, absolutely, but of course what that doesn't mean is that there won't be

an impact from brexit, and particularly a no—deal brexit, because that is a very major change and it would be a very abrupt change to our major trading relationship. as an island nation, those trading relationships are vital. i'm in the english channel, between britain and the rest of europe. seven years ago, john honeyard began farming mussels here. he voted remain in the referendum. john, tell me about these mussels, how are they grown? probably on each one of these, it's getting up to a quarter of a ton of mussels. like the bulk of british shellfish, most ofjohn‘s mussels end up on european plates. he fears his business might go under if there is no deal. i have spent 12 years growing

this business and this is our potentially first big year of production. his mussels would be subject to more bureaucracy on both sides of the channel. any delays could be disastrous. there's going to be potentially a lot of delays at the port. every minute they spent in the truck is less shelf life. some of them will die, and you lose value because they've been out of the water for so long. with no deal, those tariffs that the eu could impose would mean thatjohn‘s mussels cost 10% more. it might take all the profit. that's a lot of money to take off your bottom line. we're very worried because it could put us out of business. not everyone who earns a living from the sea thinks a no—deal brexit will be bad for business. after no—deal, the uk would exclusively manage fishing up to 200 nautical miles offshore.

european boats which currently fish in british waters would have to negotiate access. beautiful dover sole. look at the sheen on that. one of the best eating fish you can buy. that would make top money at the market. in brixham in devon, fisherman mike sharp thinks a no—deal scenario would give britain back control of its waters, and the upper hand in future trading negotiations with the eu. i voted to leave and i would love to have a no deal for the fishing side of it. everyone would be out, and then you can decide who comes in, and you can lay your rules out. there will be a deal afterwards but for me to walk away with no deal would be fantastic, and then negotiate. and mike's not worried about potential tariffs or extra checks when europe

is hungry for british fish. if you look at france and you look at spain, massive fish—eating countries. if they haven't got the opportunity to fish in our waters so much they are going to still want it. so you're not worried about no deal? i'm not worried at all about no deal, no. we export £92 billion worth of goods to the eu every year. if there's no deal, the government says its priority is to keep goods moving and to avoid delays. do you think there will be delays in those early days? it's very difficult to say. a lot depends on how the authorities on the other side of the border respond. a lot depends on how well businesses are prepared. if they haven't got the right paperwork in place they will have to be held until they have ogt hte right paperwork,

—— got the right paperwork in order to be able to cross that border. that's going to cause delays though, isn't it? the risk is that there will be delays at the border. delays could have the greatest impact in kent. plans have been rehearsed to stack lorries on motorways or to hold them on this disused airfield. matt and i are heading through kent towards the ferry to calais. coming in to dover, down here on the right—hand side. after a no—deal, he fears this might not be the quick and easy run it is today. the eu would treat the uk as an outside nation. at the moment we go straight through, show our passports, they ask what we are carrying. rough weight, those sort of things. it's not yet completely clear how getting into the eu would work, but this is what we know —

british businesses that trade with the eu should submit export papers before lorries arrive at the port. those businesses would need a registration number to do that. the problem is, fewer than half of them have applied to the government to get one. if each truck has to start doing customs clearance, then there is going to be a backlog of trucks waiting to leave. there are no plans for routine customs checks on the british side for lorries leaving our ports, but the french may insist they can't board a ferry in the uk without all the right paperwork. lovely, thank you very much. cheers, mate. this ferry company carries over a million lorries a year on the dover—calais route. during the crossing, it will send their paperwork to the authorities on both sides. french customs will then tell the ferry company if lorries

need checks on arrival. in the event of a no—deal brexit, then the ferry company effectively becomes the middleman between britain and europe for all those lorries and the freight that they are importing and exporting, and that's a big responsibility for the company. this danish ferry boss says they've been carrying out trials for months. i think we are as ready as we can be, so we're confident we will be ready to supply with the regulation. in the first couple of days, i'm pretty sure there will be some sort of disuption. there will be trucks coming down to the different terminals in europe and the uk who are not prepared with the documentations. so to all our customers who are waiting, there will be delays. 0n the other side of the channel, in the french port of calais, they have spent 6 million euros getting ready for no—deal brexit. it'sjust here, under this road here, you have two parkings.

they've built parking spaces which could hold lorries that haven't completed all the formalities. how big are these parking areas? there is about together 300 places. there is two parkings. you could be stopping 300 lorries? yes. that's a lot. we hope it will not be the case. if there is no deal, that is your responsibility, but our responsibility is to organise traffic in the port of calais and we are ready. back in britain, what do truckers think of no—deal preparations? the haulage industry says the government needs to do more to reassure them. we have no clarity. we have no clarity over the processes, or what's actually really going to happen on day one. but the government would say, well we have planned for this, there are contingency plans, there will be overflow lorry parks, we've thought this through. i don't think they thought it through enough, if we end up with lorry parks in kent, then

i thinkg the government have failed. lorry drivers have another big concern — as it stands, if there's no deal, the special licences that allow british lorries to drive in the eu are due to expire byjanuary. the default position is another permit, whether an annual or a short—term one, and companies are applying for them. but there are currently only 6,500 permits available in the uk for 40,000 lorries. it's almost like a lottery system, that's the sense from the industry, it's like a lottery in terms of how those permits are allocated. there are nowhere near enough permits for the number of trucks that go to europe. what will happen to british operators that can't get those permits? they won't be allowed to go, it's as simple as that. that's going to put businesses out of business, pretty much straight away. the government told us it doesn't expect to rely solely on these permits and is taking responsible steps to plan for all scenarios. the hauliers association has gone public with their concerns

about government brexit planning. it's been a really frustrating process over the last two years with them. they don't listen to the detail. richard bennett says the secretary of state for transport, chris grayling, warned him to stop speaking out following a briefing last august. we walked away from that meeting feeling like we've not made any progress, that we had hit a brick wall. his association immediately issued a press release about the meeting. within hours, chris grayling had left him a voice mail twice warning him, he might not be included in future brexit meetings.

my sense of that message was either shut up or you do not engage, you either play ball with us you will not be a part of the support of the negotiations on behalf of the industry. we have a government that's trying to silence an industry that is trying to help government and guide them. despite the telling—off, discussions didn't stop. the department for transport said they've continued to involve the hauliers association at every stage, and it's extremely unfortunate when details of a conversation held in confidence are made public in a press release. a no—deal brexit could affect our imports from the eu as well as our exports. any delays in getting products

into the uk and we could start to run low on vital supplies, so the government has already asked some businesses to stockpile. this pharmaceutical company imports ingredients to make medicines which it exports all over the world. our main products are in epilepsy and also we have some life—saving cancer medicines here, where patients need to have those regularly otherwise the tumour is going to re—occur. we are talking about critical life essential medicines here. many large commercial warehouses are now almost full. this company has stockpiled enough to last six months, which is how long the government predicts disruption to medical supplies might last. in the event of delays at the border, the government could charter planes, boats or lorries to ensure medical supplies reach the uk on time. do you think the politicians had any idea of the complexity of all of this when no—deal was advocated? i don't think they did, to be honest i think we have

all had a wake up here. what does it cost you to get ready for a potential no—deal brexit, both in terms of money and resources? so far we have spent over £10 million on our preparations, various aspects of it, and that is in hard cash. therefore it is money which we haven't spent on that, because we would have spent it on research and researching vital medicines. the government says it is providing people with the information they need to prepare, and encourages them to take action. but bigger businesses are generally better equipped to do so. can you be confident that smaller businesses in particular in britain are ready for this? i think we are pretty confident that many larger businesses have thought hard about what they would have to do in a no—deal circumstance. the problem is greaterfor small and medium and sized enterprises. they have a lot else to deal with, planning for no—deal brexit requires energy, it is expensive

and it takes time. only a fifth of the british economy involves making goods that are shipped from one place to another, the rest is made up of different types of services like banking. banking and the broader financial services sector is incredibly important to the uk economy. we contribute about 75 billion to the exchequer, it employs one in every 14 people. firms like banks have spent tens of millions planning for brexit. it's estimated 300 companies are moving staff and £800 billion in assets out of the uk and into europe. i think the uk financial services sector has been preparing for some time and it is as ready as it can be. but a no—deal brexit would be different, and not everything can be planned for. there is a risk some eu—based customers of uk banks may lose

access to mortgages, unsecured loans or even their current accounts. different countries like germany, france and ireland have enacted measures to allow some, but not all, products and services to continue to flow in the event of no deal. there is an incredible gap in what we can and can't do if we leave the european union in november during a no deal. so will there be disruption with no deal? absolutely. is some of it mitigated? yes. some believe that no deal would be the best option, even with all the unknowns. i have come to dublin to visit one of the most vocal supporters of brexit. how's it going? alright? enjoying a pint there. a man who owns nearly 900 pubs in the uk and ireland. this could be the irish front row! tim martin has no fears about a no deal and thinks it would be good for the consumer.

i voted leave in the referendum. i think no deal is much preferable to a deal. you regain control of fishing immediately, and you can eliminate tariffs on thousands of products without damaging the uk economy, so there is an immediate benefit. tim's company imports lots of its alcohol. i'm going to have a half of blue moon, if i can? but to avoid any delays to beer arriving from europe, he's already looked to buy at home. anything you can buy from the eu, you can buy from the rest of the world or from the uk. we switched from german wheat beer to wheat beer from the uk and it has sold well so that is an example. but what about companies trying to export products to the eu, who could face new tariffs

if there is no deal? now, you don't export but lots of british businesses do and they are going to be worse off arguably, they believe. it certainly does not outweigh the benefits to consumers and businesses because we import more than we export, therefore the saving in tariffs on imports is more than the tariffs on exports. many people say it will be a catastrophe if there is a no—deal brexit. they said if we didn'tjoin the euro the economy would go down the pan, it has done very well. they said if we voted leave, not left but voted leave, there would be a huge catastrophe in the economy, that didn't happen. you have to look at the track record and i have been right. of course the economic impact of no deal is really difficult to predict, butjust an hour up the road in northern ireland,

the stakes are high. the border here will be the uk's only land border with the eu. since the hard—won peace deal, it has been kept open. on this stretch of road, i am criss—crossing it four times injust six miles. the border is so open there are no checks and hardly any sign you are crossing from one country into another and back again. people on both sides have become closely interconnected and that would be significant in the event of a no—deal brexit. we are standing literally on the border between northern ireland and the republic of ireland, in an area that was an economic wasteland but now is thriving. aidan connolly represents

northern ireland retailers. this one stretch of road has 8500 lorries crossing it every day. many goods made here are processed on both sides of the border. if you look at a bottle of baileys there are five movements across the border until it becomes a finished product so it is that sort of integrated market we are talking about. is northern ireland business ready for a no—deal brexit? absolutely not. there is no way we can be ready for what is a systematic disintegration of the supply chains across this island. the no—deal brexit will be a disaster for the northern ireland economy. along the border in county fermanagh, andrew little is bringing his cows in. his farm depends on sales of milk to a dairy south of the border. just one example of how intertwined

the two economies are. after a no—deal brexit, his milk would become an export to the eu. he says the tariff of around i9p per litre would destroy his profit. do you fear you could be put out of business if there is a no—deal brexit? it'd just wipe us out because we couldn't afford to produce the milk and look after our livestock. it would break my heart to see no cows here, going in the morning to an empty shed. what would you do? i find it very hard. can i ask you, what did you vote in the referendum? i voted to leave, the people's vote was to leave and it is up to the politicians in westminster to actually do what the people say and come up with a deal to leave. i think a no deal scenario would be catastrophic to the agricultural industry, especially the dairy industry. i think we need a deal. under no deal, a difference in tariffs between the uk and the eu could make some products

cheaper in northern ireland than in the republic. aidan is worried this price difference might attract criminals, keen to make a profit on the black market. what you do if there is a hard border is you create thousands of products that have a differential, you're making it a smugglers paradise and creating northern ireland, making it into the wild, wild west. northern ireland's police service is also concerned that economic uncertainty could herald a return to troubled times. should the differentials on either side increase and be exacerbated in any way, that would create new opportunities for organised crime groups to exploit that to raise income, and certainly we would see traditionally connections between some of those groups and more violent groups. a number of groups linked to dissident activity are still active in northern

ireland. the potential impact though, of no deal on the economy in northern ireland is significant, and that would, in our view, present potentially significant security concerns. is the ira already recruiting off the back of brexit and particularly a no—deal brexit? so we know that the new ira and other groups continue to recruit people and we believe that brexit provides an opportunity for them to encourage people to recruit. again though, at this stage we don't see any upsurge in recruitment or violence being driven specifically by brexit. the government has given the police service more money for an extra 300 officers and staff. those increased numbers are being invested in local communities along the borders and other areas where there are concerns about community tensions during the eu exit. if no deal happens this october, things could change overnight. so is the man who oversaw the planning worried about the day after?

i think everybody should be worried about what happens in a no deal situation. we would be taking a step into the unknown. it is not in the uk's interest to have no deal, it's not in the eu's interest to have no deal. the rational outcome over the next few months is to get a deal. lorry driver matt is now arriving at calais. there have been no hitches. there has been no delay coming off the boat at all, you arrive in the port and you just follow the signs straight up. but it has not been a smooth journey to brexit. everyone i have met has told me of their frustration at the political uncertainty. we are tired of the brexit, sorry but we are tired. all the meetings, all the time we have to spend, all discussions, i think it is enough now. i think they needed to get off their backside to actually

do theirjob and come up with a deal and agree with a deal. for goodness' sake, guys and girls, let's do it. we weighed it all up, decided to leave, let's go! we won't know until the autumn, after there is a new prime minister, whether no—deal will become a reality. it's the great unknown, we don't quite know what's really going on yet. but in the short term i think it could be quite a headache.

the heat and humidity that we have seen over the last few days did spark off some heavy showers absent under storms during the step will stop friday won't be quite as hot or assume it and people have fewer showers and thunderstorms around still want to cropping up particular parts of eastern england and eastern scotland. sunny spells are most other places, cloud towards the north—west of the uk, and top temperature around 17— north—west of the uk, and top temperature around i7— 25 degrees. the final three days of the championship at wimbledon, we are expecting predominantly dry settled weather but some sunshine, can't rule out just a weather but some sunshine, can't rule outjust a passing shower either friday or to saturday afternoon. through the day on saturday, dry weather, eastern scotla nd saturday, dry weather, eastern scotland and down the spine of ingot, you could just catch a passing shower. it could be a bit called in recent days of highs between 17 and 23 degrees during the day as a hair. heading into sunday, high pressure builds from the west, lots of dry sunny weather, a bit cooler around the east coast with

the breeze coming from the north sea, the warmest weather by sunday, towards the this is bbc news — welcome if you're watching here in the uk, on pbs in america or around the globe. i'm mike embley. our top stories: president trump abandons his bid to add a question on citizenship to the us census — but insists he'll press on with an executive order. the lion air crash in indonesia — lawyers say the families of those who died in the boeing 737 max have been cheated out of compensation the daily struggle for water. one of india's biggest cities continues to feel the effects of the worst drought in decades. and amal clooney tells the bbc that a global hostility