hello and welcome to dateline london. i'm carrie gracie. this week: a thought experiment. we're going to examine the urgent in—tray of the incoming british prime minister. when borisjohnson and jeremy hunt threw their hats in the ring, they knew that in—tray would be bursting with inexorable brexit challenges. but now there is so much more. escalating problems with iran and china and out of a relationship which is the very cornerstone of british foreign policy, a spectacularly undiplomatic row with the united states. my guests today — agnes poirier of french news weekly,

american writer, jef mcallister, ned temko of the christian science monitor and veteran german correspondent and author thomas kielinger. welcome to you all and do your red boxes. the race is nearly over. in less than a fortnight, the uk will have a new prime minister. i want you all to imagine that you are that chosen one. whetherjeremy hunt or borisjohnson, you have smiled for the cameras on the steps of downing street and you are now sitting down to open the inbox. you've promised to deliver brexit but you face a new and unknown leadership team in brussels and mutiny threats from your own side. you also have to repair relations with the us. and worry about threat levels in the gulf and shadows over the golden era with china. and that's not all. so what do you deal with first? thomas, as our elder statesman, open your red box and tell me what is at the top of it. i am sorry about the

state of the world, but to talk about britain and europe to begin with, that is very difficult nowadays because europe is so much in flux. as was said about the also be in riddle inside an enigma. britain, at this very moment, of europe needing new leadership and a new profile, is leaving it. i wonder if that is a wise thing to do, when you are living at the very moment when europe might need you more than ever. what has the eu done to yourself that you have put brexit at the head of everything else in the world question market is ridiculous. in my heart of hearts, i believe brexit is a fallacy. it is a real fallacy because it is not the main threat to british future existence. it is really a domestic agenda, which i would be far more interested in. ina which i would be far more interested in. in a way, about brexit, i want to come clean about the exit date,

the 31st of october. so you're going to come clean on your first day in office? i would say it is unrealistic. the people we want to know is it with are not going to be in place until later in the autumn. it is the new leadership of europe, there is nobody to negotiate with. what is the point of call the most unrealistic deadline, the 31st of toba? it is worse than all of the previous deadlines, where you still had european leaders are hot, ahead of you. just to play devils advocate, you could still pick up the phone to berlin or paris on your first day, are you going to do that? no. the american president, i think was it kennedy, when kissinger said, when i want to go europe, which number doi when i want to go europe, which number do i call? it is a fact that britain, berlin and france, it is very uncertain who i call. therefore, the date, october the ist, is unrealistic. i need to

prepare the public for the fact that she singly brexit phantom was the worst distraction in british modern political history. well, we will come back to your particular problems, assuming your name might be borisjohnson, problems, assuming your name might be boris johnson, in problems, assuming your name might be borisjohnson, in presenting the british public with this truth, as you put it. agnes, as other european panellist you're, give is your take on whether there is somebody as british prime minister that you want to talk to. thomas says they are not injob yet, but to talk to. thomas says they are not in job yet, but we do have to talk to. thomas says they are not injob yet, but we do have nominees for those. if i am the british injob yet, but we do have nominees for those. ifi am the british prime minister, i revoke... congratulations. i have a cup of tea, revoke article 50 and then we can press on with what is at stake that is, you know, as you say, british society and issues. let's be practical here. my nearest polish —— my name is borisjohnson, i am the

british pm... and you said do or die, which is not consistent with revoking it. he has got a few weeks, i will have a mini renegotiation sometime in early september. everybody is exhausted and i am charming andl everybody is exhausted and i am charming and i can pretty few latin words, and sol charming and i can pretty few latin words, and so i am arriving and they will give me an exit mechanism to the backstop, iwill tweak will give me an exit mechanism to the backstop, i will tweak me's withdrawal agreement, i go back to the parliament and because everybody is exhausted there and conservative mps and labourmps, is exhausted there and conservative mps and labour mps, who are fearing for their seats because of the brexit party and the lib dems, he will pull off, they will vote for the withdrawal agreement, he will have delivered an orderly, at least, not hard brexit, then he cut taxes, he increases public spending by borrowing more and after a few months, while people and experts are

actually negotiating with brussels, he calls for a general election. that is his assertive dream plan. but, of course, brussels might not grant him the exit mechanism that they did not grant... yes, we have not seen the leaked diplomatic e—mails from brussels, so we don't know! and the british parliament might also not vote on that tweet withdrawal agreement. and then british pm johnson will have been british pm johnson will have been british by minister for a few weeks and that is the end of his career. boy, this is such a sunshine narrative! what is yours? they won, i would demand a recount and give one of these people the job. but failing that, i fear that the scenario that thomas pointed out is what is going to happen, and that

is, as in the last couple of years, brexit is going to suck the oxygen out of everything. what i hope would happen, in the unlikely event that i wear numberten with happen, in the unlikely event that i wear number ten with my inbox, is that i would focus on some of the issues you mention. not least because things like china, even more urgently the crisis in the gulf, are pa rt of urgently the crisis in the gulf, are part of the aspect of brexit nobody is talking about. if britain gets out of the eu, what kind of country does britain want to be? where is its international identity? is it still fundamentally european power? is it still fundamentally european power? isita still fundamentally european power? is it a small, somewhat chaotic island that happens to be a permanent memberof island that happens to be a permanent member of the security council? or does it throw all its eggsin council? or does it throw all its eggs in the trump, washington basket? and iran's a perfect example. on the one hand, britain has a declared interest, still, in

retaining this nuclear limitation agreement negotiated under president obama. on the other hand, it only recently, if not at the behest of washington, knowing it was making nice to president trump, impounded and iranians vessel that was en route to syria, and now finds itself very much a military player in the gulf. sending royal marines onto that tanker just off gulf. sending royal marines onto that tankerjust off gibraltar. exactly. these are not theoretical questions. this is about, again, what kind of international presence britain sees itself as having, if the dream scenario that she was talking about happens and they find themselves out of the eu. can you leave that paperwork on the table for the moment? can you take up for a minute for is the question, and i

know this is telling you what is in your red box, but you are allowed to talk about what you want but i want you to deal with the question of the blue on blue action that we have seenin blue on blue action that we have seen in the past few days. how worried would you be if you were the new prime minister, on yourfirst day in office, and you had to do parliamentary arithmetic thinking that you have got a former primer minister threatening to take you to court over any move to suspend parliament. how worried would you be by that kind of parliamentary arithmetic and possible constitutional arithmetic? the tories have tended to be good at self—preservation and pulling together. it is very difficult, i think, for the parliamentary party, even though it is something as divided as it now is, not to see the importance of protecting johnson to some degree. but i thinkjohn major will indeed go indeed with the legal challenge. it might succeed. insofar as there is an year of good feelings

for the first week—and—a—half, while johnson is now trying to make the brexit deal work, all the contradictions, all the difficulties remain. i don't see how you get a brexit deal through europe that will pass the conservative party. i don't see any of these magical things happening. ijust any of these magical things happening. i just don't see any of these magical things happening. ijust don't see it. so we are struck again, soon, with the mess. and then i think it comes back to will parliament assert itself, maybe with some labour voters, to force another referendum ? maybe with some labour voters, to force another referendum? which is, in some ways, the only constitutional way out of this that makes sense. it was a referendum that got us in it, it has to be a referendum that gets people to think it is legitimate to get out. it solves the problem. i do not know if the conservative party can think that anymore when there is a new prime minister. the labour party, u nfortu nately for prime minister. the labour party, unfortunately for and for the sense of opposition, seems to be involved ina of opposition, seems to be involved in a dreadful invalided, self consumption over anti—semitism and

other problems and investigations, even before the quality human right commission of a major political party and exposes on the television. it isa party and exposes on the television. it is a mess. it is just not a credible party for the next government. and so, this gives johnson, or whoever it is going to be, mr hunt may be, doubtful, a chance to run his conservative party in these battles for awhile but still don't see how he solves this fundamental brexit problem. thomas, ifi fundamental brexit problem. thomas, if i could come back to you on the timeline, does the new prime minister have control of the deadline of this, on october the sist, deadline of this, on october the 31st, order the europeans, some of them at least, my want the brits out as much as borisjohnson wants to leave ? as much as borisjohnson wants to leave? practically speaking, he doesn't have control, that is a fa ct. doesn't have control, that is a fact. we look at the likelihood of ever more negotiations taking place. that is not going to unify the country, obviously. the problem lies

at the heart of brexit itself. it is not the country that spoke much until the politicians to leave europe, it was 52%. i have a problem. i europe, it was 52%. i have a problem. lam europe, it was 52%. i have a problem. i am conflicted about the notion that the country has spoken, therefore the politicians have to do... 48% need to be conciliated. there is a deep divide in britain, and continuation of the negotiations might, in the end, mean and the end there will have to be a public vote. i would be all in favour of it. what iam i would be all in favour of it. what i am getting at is, what it the rest of europe feel about the desirability of such a public vote, oi’ desirability of such a public vote, or more, you know, of the kinds of considerations thatjeff is talking about? or is there so much impatience in europe know that they would say october the 31st is it? there is impatience but a great deal of sadness, in berlin in particular, which was always sworn by the closeness with britain which was our most important allies in the debate on free trade and protectionism and so on free trade and protectionism and so forth. we would not mind if

britain were to consider, reconsider its decision. europe is not going for ever closer union. i wonder how the anti—eu rhetoric of this country still hearts own, saying they are going to build a superstate. it is wrong, it is a fallacy, it is a lie. everything else points in the opposite direction. europe is now at exactly the moment when britain always wanted to be. that is a relationship between independent governments. intergovernmental relations. that is the moment that europe is reaching. and so, we kind of thing that britain might be turned —— of thing that britain might be turned — — return of thing that britain might be turned —— return into this cauldron and forget about this... one great irony of this, and it is reflected in the fact that if you thousand disproportionately elderly local members of the conservative party are determining who is going to be the next prime minister of this country for stoppages not a national election. the main consideration, i mean, or as election. the main consideration, i

mean, oras is election. the main consideration, i mean, or as is many election. the main consideration, i mean, or as is many things, he is not stupid. this locking oneself into the halloween deadline, saying if there is no deal there is no deal, is not about europe, it is not even about britain, it is about nigel farage. it is an internal conservative, brexit party... it is also an anguished problem, rather than a british problem. also, —— and english problem, rather than a british problem. boris johnson, english problem, rather than a british problem. borisjohnson, to go back to what you're i mean, president micron six months ago had coalesced for five eu president micron six months ago had coalesced forfive eu members president micron six months ago had coalesced for five eu members to say, ok, no more extension, we have had enough. but six month later, almost a year later, at the end of october, i think there will be many

more eu members around him saying, look, let them exit, discover whether they like it or not, and then they can rejoin. let us leave all of your brexit paperwork on the table for a moment and 20—something —— return to something, you cannot wait until the october 3! to appoint your next ambassador to washington. how are you going to satisfy a bruised diplomatic service and a bruised diplomatic service and a bruised ego of the us president?” think he does not have to worry about donald trump's ego, which is infinitely breathable, ever again. about donald trump's ego, which is infinitely breathable, everagain. i wa nt to infinitely breathable, everagain. i want to read a quotation from mr johnson when he was london's mayor. he said that trump's stupefying ignorance prove that he was out of his mind and frankly unfit to hold the office of president of the native states, which is much worse than anything that sir kim said in his diplomatic cables. but trump likes boris. he sees a kindred

spirit, a big, fellow, semi—liar, a bounder, each answer, and has been promoting him in british politics for years. he has pre—disposals —— predisposed to like and. if you believe in the virtues of the british system and diplomatic service, it would be smart to appoint a career person of stature. iam not... he has appoint a career person of stature. i am not... he has made them all worried. if you have people that do not think you're going to look after them in the long run, they are not going to look after you. but that the spirit of the age and johnson himself is that kind of person, who throws rocks and worries about breaking glass later. so maybe it is a politicalfigure. a conservative person who is of some stature that cuts the divide in half. the bigger problem is us, uk relations. what is the uk's row? what is it doing? that has been a problem since the war. the decision britain has made is to

hitch itself, basically, to the us. there has been ups and downs, the suez canal, wilson sending troops to vietnam, but basically the idea is that the us is important for britain is the choice. now, and it has sometimes paid off, but if you have somebody who does not believe in nato, who does not believe in institutions, free trade, in the white house, what do you get out of it? mrs may could not have been nicer to him. she was constantly basing himself, herself to get your that she did not —— he did not get mad at her, and he run roughshod over her. differences in global warming, the piece process, they are substantive. boris johnson warming, the piece process, they are substantive. borisjohnson cannot make them disappear just substantive. borisjohnson cannot make them disappearjust by appointing somebody to washington who is... to come back to the red box problem. this is, again, crucial to defining britain's post brexiteer

role. —— to defining britain's post brexiteer role. — — post to defining britain's post brexiteer role. —— post brexit role. one of the multiplier effects in the so—called special relationship was that even in tough times, britain was a kind of bridge for the native states with a european union or a wider european continent. and that is easily under threat now. and so, if the decision in my first day in office is to kind of pivot towards the united states, the kind of thingsjeff was saying the united states, the kind of things jeff was saying are a problem. it is not whether you like or dislike problem. it is not whether you like ordislike trump, it problem. it is not whether you like or dislike trump, it is... or whether you like kim direct or not, it is inarguably true that what sir kim said, that this is a dysfunctional administration, is impossible to disagree with. so, if you are hitching your wagon to this particular horse, you have got to

know what the horses doing. my final small example, while way. you have, on the one hand, the americans, and trump in particular, saying they will never share trump in particular, saying they will never sha re intelligence trump in particular, saying they will never share intelligence with you again, that huawei cannot be part of any negotiation, but then he is listening this idea and may be that american companies can deal with huawei. if you have basically said, if you are britain, anything trump says we will do or at least make nice towards, what happens when you are dealing with a president who changes his mind? why don't you a nswer changes his mind? why don't you answer that question? so, why do you not play drum. the brazilian president appointed his son as us ambassador. ok, is there someone in thejohnson ambassador. ok, is there someone in

the johnson family? or the hunt family. but dealwith the johnson family? or the hunt family. but deal with the substantive issue, are you going to offend china by saying, and this decision, of course, on huawei has been postponed for some time precisely because of the arrival of a new premise to, are you going to offend the chinese by saying, effectively, golden era over, you are isa effectively, golden era over, you are is a problem —— security problem, huawei cannot be in the 5g network, or will you bow to america? britain has put itself at such a vulnerable position because for the last 50 years, the two pillars were close relationship with the us and membership of the eu. this isjust banishing in front of verizon. basically, china, i mean, have you listened to china towards britain question might —— banishing in front of her eyes. china is being quite harsh, and it can be, because

britain is in a desperate situation, wanting to strike future trade deals with everyone. get your colonial, interfering hands of hong kong. britain cannot be harsh with anyone, canjust britain cannot be harsh with anyone, can just say yes please! and britain cannot be harsh with anyone, canjust say yes please! and it britain cannot be harsh with anyone, can just say yes please! and it is actually terrible to see if you are actually terrible to see if you are afan of actually terrible to see if you are a fan of britain. and you have to make decisions, whether you want to kick them into the long grass. for example, iran is another issue where you have to make up your mind whether you will follow the leadership and say we are pro—gating the nuclear deal with iran, and that is an issue we have to solve here and knife you cannot wait for the next president of the united states. i suppose, there may be decisions that are more pressing. you have just sent a second naval vessel to the gulf. you have got the possible interference with british commercial shipping. what if something pops up there? you shipping. what if something pops up there ? you have shipping. what if something pops up there? you have to contain the iranian revolutionary guards, you

cannot let them ride roughshod over free shipping and so forth, i am all in favour of stamping and putting your foot down and saying enough is enough, but the ultimate issue is what is the uk's role in the world question can you cannot define it right now you can hope for the end of the trump presidency and for some other constellation of factors in the world that will be more benign to your own feelings and designs, but, at the moment, i do not think we are but, at the moment, i do not think we are getting anywhere by wanting to define the uk role? the american man, addison, once said britain has not found a world role after the end of herempire. who not found a world role after the end of her empire. who was it? britain is exactly the same now. to press you back on your mystery, riddle enigma. can you not pivot out as british prime minister and say, what are you doing coherently about iran? we have to find... actually, what

you said is exact at the point, i think britain has durian involve herself with the eu. you cannot deal individually as an isolated nation with all the problems that we are now talking about. you have to have larger families of nations coming together. the iranians nuclear deal painstakingly achieved by obama and a run over a lot of time and getting used to each other is, actually, an intelligent piece of diplomacy. the only reason that trump seems to be determined to destroy it is because it was obama's signal foreign policy accomplishment. so, the idea that we are going to pretend and go along with america because there are defence partner as america deliberately ratchets up the pressure to make the iranians more and more unstable and maybe hit out, the idea is you should turn down the pressure, not to turn it up. but policy is either because john bolton likes it or because he likes being a strongman point mckee probably does

not want a war... there was, until the most recent case, some move within europe, of which britain was a part, to say to the americans, with some hope, that, look, we agree with some hope, that, look, we agree with you about iran, there should... this was not a perfect deal, there should be constraints on missile technology, on behaviour in the middle east, but let's find a way to negotiate. leave this deal inside and we will do another side to deal with the french, germans and brits. and that is coming back to the notion, are we at a turning point where however brexit is accomplished, britain's role has to be redefined? so, we have only got a couple of minutes left on the programme. we have, i hope, nearly got to the bottom of the pressing red box. do you all, at this stage, feel, bring it on, or do you feel, as the new premise to the uk on that day, show me my quilt i want to

claim back under it? i my boris johnson or...? you are boris johnson orjeremy hunt. i amjust having a cup of tea and close the door. keeping calm and carry on? probably. facetiously, i am going on holiday for if i was a serious prime minister, i would... do for if i was a serious prime minister, iwould... do you for if i was a serious prime minister, i would... do you relish the challenge of that fire hose of crises upon you ? the challenge of that fire hose of crises upon you? no. if! am boris, i pretend to relish the challenge but even the best case scenario for a no—deal brexit is not very rosy. so, october the 31st is fast upon you, thomas, are you confident of getting it done? not at all. that is why i moved to something quite different, i would why i moved to something quite different, iwould pick why i moved to something quite different, i would pick up the speech that theresa may gave when she became pro—minister outside the doors of numberten, she became pro—minister outside the doors of number ten, a wonderful speech about how problematic this country is to govern, the injustices that need to be addressed and the

people who can hardly manage, i would go back to that speech and say, folks, this country is any mess and before we talk about brexit, that has to be pushed only ladder of priority. we deal with our domestic agenda first and foremost. number one, numbertwo, numberthree issues. and you have got one sense, it is only in your speech, jeff, sorry! it is only in your speech, jeff, | that's it for dateline london for this week. we have started the morning with a lot of cloud, but gradually the sunshine is working its way through that cloud. that process will continue for the rest of the davis love actually, for most of us, it

will be a dry picture with sunny spells. the showers will be pretty isolated. high pressure has moved on. it is cut of the moisture supply for instead, also getting a northerly breeze. it has allowed things to freshen up, lose the images tea in the south just a little. it is not completely bone dry. a few showers to the morning. turning sharper now. some heavy ones over the hills of scotland, drifting southwards. also across the english else, good northern english else, drifting their way south through the day. quite a brisk breeze for some right on the coast. again, temperatures, even though i degrees down on yesterday, pleasantly warm in the sunshine. and it should be dry for wimbledon today and tomorrow. a slim chance of one of those showers materialising at wimbledon this afternoon because they do continue through the evening and overnight. drifting southwards, providing a lot of cloud by the ten we get towards the morning. otherwise, the night looks more co mforta ble.

otherwise, the night looks more comfortable. just a cloud milling around in the south. could be a little bit grey and if you sports but, again, the july little bit grey and if you sports but, again, thejuly sunshine will get to work on it and we will see plenty more sunshine coming through. could be the legacy of that cloud on the south and a few showers first thing. it brisk breeze tomorrow coming down through the dover strait, taking the edge of the temperature, perhaps a degree down once again and feeling pressure. for most, the west will be best for lighter winds and some higher temperatures. for most, feeling quite warm it is the british grand prix tomorrow. looks fine and driver stops on sunshine but also quite a bit of cloud around. it is a similar story for the cricket world cup, as england take on new zealand, as you can see, at lord's. if you are going, bear in mind the sun can get through that thin client. this is likely to be hurricane strength as it makes landfill imminently. it will cause coastal flooding and several days of rainfall on

louisiana, texas and arkansas particularly. there will be catastrophic flooding. more on the website.

good afternoon. borisjohnson and jeremy hunt have both defended the right ofjournalists to publish leaked government documents after police warned any further release of diplomatic cables could be a "criminal matter". scotland yard announced on friday that it was launching an investigation into the leak of dispatches from sir kim darroch. the british ambassador in washington had been highly critical of the trump administration. the leak of sir kim's comments led to his resignation.