brexit challenges. but now there's so much more. escalating problems with iran and with china, and out of a relationship which is the very cornerstone of british foreign policy, a spectacularly undiplomatic row with the united states. my guests today: agnes poirier of french news weekly marianne, american writer, jef mcallister, ned temko of the christian science monitor and veteran german correspondent and author thomas kielinger. welcome to you all and welcome to your red boxes. the race is nearly over. and in less than a fortnight, the uk will have a new prime minister. so i want you all to imagine that you are that chosen one. and, whetherjeremy hunt or borisjohnson, you have smiled for the camera — cameras, plural, on the steps of downing street and you are now sitting down to open that inbox. you've promised to deliver brexit but you face a new and unknown leadership team in brussels and mutiny threats from your own side.

so you also have to repair relations with the united states and you have to worry about threat levels in the gulf and shadows over the golden era with china. and that is not all. so what are you going to deal with first? thomas, as our elder statesman, open your red box and tell me what's at the top of it. i'm sorry really about elder statesman as much as about the state of the world, and sorry about both. but to talk about britain and europe to begin with, that's very difficult nowadays because europe is so much in flux. as churchill once said the old soviet union — "a riddle inside an enigma wrapped in a mystery", with so many new forces coming to the fore. and britain, at this very moment, of europe needing new leadership and a new profile, is leaving. so i wonder if that is a wise thing to do, when you're leaving at the very moment when europe might need you more than ever. what has the eu done to yourself that you've put brexit at the head of everything else in the world, because it's ridiculous. it's the biggest — in my heart of hearts, i believe brexit is a fallacy. it is a real fallacy

because it doesn't — it's not the main threat to british future existence. it's really the domestic agenda, which i would be far more interested in solving. so in a way, about brexit, i want to come clean. i want to come clean about the exit date, the 31st of october. so you're going to come clean on your first day in office? i would say it is unrealistic. because the people we want to negotiate with are not going to be in place until later in the autumn. there's the new leadership of europe, there's nobody to negotiate with. so what's the point of calling the most unrealistic deadline, the 31st of october? it's worse than all of the previous deadlines, where you still had european leaders ahead of you. nowadays you would have nothing. so just to play devil's advocate, you could still pick up the phone to berlin or paris on your first day in office, are you going to do that? no. i'm not going to. i'll begin with the position

of the american president, i think was it kennedy, or later when kissinger said, ‘when i want to call europe, which number do i call?‘ and it's a fact that britain, berlin and france have to find a new togetherness and it's very uncertain who i call. and therefore, the date, october the first, is unrealistic. i need to prepare the public for the fact that chasing the brexit phantom was the worst distraction in british modern political history. well, we'll come back to your particular problems, assuming your name might be boris johnson, in presenting the british public with this truth, as you put it. right. agnes, as other european panellist here, give us your take on whether there's somebody as british prime minister that you want to talk to in your first days in office. you've got — even thomas says they're not in job yet, but we do have nominees for those top european posts. well, if i'm the british prime minister, i revoke... congratulations, by the way.

i revoke article 50. i have a cup of tea, revoke article 50 and then we can press on with what's at stake. that is to say, british society and issues. that could lead to a people's vote. for instance, now, let's be practical here. my name is borisjohnson, i am the british pm... and you said do or die, october 31st, which is not consistent with revoking article 50. he's got a plan, which he might pull off which is 'i've got a few weeks, i will have a mini renegotiation during summer in early september. i will — because everybody is exhausted and i'm charming and i can put in a few latin words, and so i'm arriving and they will give me an exit mechanism to the backstop. i will tweak may's withdrawal agreement, i go back to the parliament and because everybody is exhausted there and conservative mps and labour mps, who are fearing for their seats because of the brexit party and the lib dems,

he will pull it off, they will vote for the withdrawal agreement.‘ he will have delivered an orderly, at least, you know, not hard brexit. then he cuts taxes, he increases public spending by borrowing more and after a few months, while real people and experts are actually negotiating the trade negotiations with brussels, he calls for a general election. that's his sort of dream plan. but, of course, brussels might not grant him the exit mechanism that they did not grant to... yes, we have not seen the leaked diplomatic e—mails from brussels, so we don't know! that's coming! so we don't know what the advice is. and the british parliament might also not vote on that tweaked, withdrawal agreement. and then british pm johnson will have been british by minister for a few weeks and that's the end of his career. now, what are you doing on day one?

well, this is such a sunshiny narrative! unbelievable. what is your narrative, david? day one, i would demand a recount and give one of these people the job, quite frankly. but failing that, i fear that the scenario that thomas pointed out is what's going to happen, and that is, as in the last couple of years, brexit is going to suck the oxygen out of everything. what i hope would happen, in the unlikely event that i were in number ten with my inbox, is that i would focus on some of the issues you mention. not least because things like china, even more urgently the crisis in the gulf, are part of the aspect of brexit no—one's talking about. and that is let's say britain gets out of the eu, what kind of country does britain want to be? that is where is its international identity? is it still fundamentally a european power?

is it a small, somewhat chaotic island that happens to be a permanent member of the security council? or does it throw all its eggs in the trump, washington basket? and iran's a perfect example. because on the one hand, britain has a declared interest, still, in retaining this nuclear limitation agreement negotiated under president obama. on the other hand, it only recently, if not at the behest of washington, knowing it was making nice to president trump, impounded an iranian vessel that was en route to syria, and now finds itself very much a military player in the gulf. so... sending royal marines onto that tankerjust off gibraltar. exactly. these are not theoretical questions. this is about, again, what kind of international presence

britain sees itself as having, if the dream scenario that agnes was talking about happens and they find themselves out of the eu. can you leave that paperwork on the table for the moment? you can. jef, can you take up for a minute for us the question, and i know this is telling you what is in your red box, but you are allowed to talk about what you want but i want you to deal with the question of the blue—on—blue action that we have seen in the past few days. how worried would you be if you were the new prime minister, on your first day in office, and you had to do parliamentary arithmetic thinking that you've got a former primer minister threatening to take you to court over any move to suspend parliament. how worried would you be by that kind of parliamentary arithmetic and possible constitutional arithmetic on your first day in office? the tories have tended to be good at self—preservation and pulling together. it is very difficult, i think,

for the parliamentary party, even though it's something as divided as it now is, not to see the importance of protecting johnson to some degree. but i thinkjohn major will indeed go indeed with the legal challenge. it might succeed. i think insofar as there is an year of era of good feelings for the first week—and—a—half, whilejohnson is now trying to make the brexit deal work, all the contradictions, all the difficulties remain. i don't see how you get a brexit deal through europe that will pass the conservative party. i don't see any of these magical things happening. i just don't see it. so we're stuck again, soon, with a mess. and then i think it comes back to, will parliament assert itself, maybe with some labour voters, to have — to force another referendum ? which is, in some ways, the only constitutional way out of this that makes sense. it was a referendum that got us

in it, it has to be a referendum that gets people to think it's legitimate to get out. it solves the problem. i don't know if the conservative party can think that anymore when there's a new prime minister. the labour party, unfortunately for itself and for the sense of loyal opposition, seems to be involved in a dreadful, involuted, self—consumption over anti—semitism and other problems and investigations, and even before the equality and human rights commission of a major political party and exposes on the television. and it's a mess. and it's just not a credible party for the next government. and so, this givesjohnson, or whoever it's going to be, mr hunt maybe, doubtful, a chance to run his conservative party internecine battles for awhile but i still don't see how he solves the fundamental brexit problem which is the rock on which all this has been broken for so long. and thomas, if i could come back to you on the timeline, does the new prime minister have

control of the deadline of this, on october the 31st, or do the europeans, some of them at least, now want the brits out as much as borisjohnson wants to leave, i'm afraid? practically speaking, he doesn't have control, that is a fact. we look at the likelihood of ever more negotiations taking place. that's not going to unify the country, obviously. and the problem lies at the heart of brexit itself. it is not the country that spoke to tell the politicians to leave europe, it was 52%. and i have a problem. i am conflicted about the notion that the country has spoken, therefore the politicians have to do what the country... 48% need to be conciliated! there's a deep divide in britain, and therefore continuation of the negotiations might, in the end mean yes, there will have to be a public vote. and i would be all in favour of it. what i am getting at is, what does the rest of europe feel about the desirability of such a public vote, or more, you know, of the kinds of considerations that

jef‘s talking about? or is there so much impatience in europe now that they would say october the 31st is it, whatever you think in the uk? there is impatience but a great deal of sadness, in berlin in particular, which has always sworn by the closeness with britain which was our most important allies in the debate of free trade and what have you and anti—protectionism and so forth. so we wouldn't mind if britain were to consider, reconsider its decision. you know, europe is not going for ever closer union. i wonder how the anti—eu rhetoric in this country still harps own, saying they are going to build a superstate. it's wrong, it's a fallacy, it's a lie. everything else points in the opposite direction. europe is now at exactly the moment where britain always wanted her to be. that is to say, a relationship between independent governments. intragovernmental relations. that's the moment that europe is reaching. and so, we kind of think that britain might return into this sort of cauldron of intergovernmental relations and forget

about this huge distraction. can ijust say, one great irony of this, and it's reflected in the fact that a few thousand disproportionately elderly local members of the conservative party are determining who's going to be the next prime minister of this country, not a national election. the main consideration, i mean, boris is many things, he's not stupid. this locking oneself into the halloween deadline, saying if there's no deal there's no deal, isn't about europe, it's not even about britain, it's about nigel farage. it's an internal conservative, brexit party competition. it is also an english problem, rather than a british problem. and also, you know we have a political generation that are precipitating events not in the hope of controlling them, but in the hope of exploding them, and that's exactly where borisjohnson is. and to go back to what you're asking, i mean, president macron six

months ago had sort of coalesced four orfive eu members to say, ok, no more extension, we've had enough. but six months later, almost a year later, at the end of october, i think there will be many more eu members around him saying, look, let them exit, discover whether they like it or not, and then they can rejoin. let us leave all of your brexit paperwork on the table for a moment and turn to something, you cannot wait until the october 31 to appoint your next ambassador to washington. laughs how are you going to satisfy a bruised diplomatic service and a bruised ego of the us president? i think he doesn't have to worry about donald trump's ego, which is infinitely bruisable, ever again.

i just want to read a quotation from mrjohnson when he was london's mayor. he said that trump's "stupefying ignorance proves that he was out of his mind and was frankly unfit to hold the office of president of the united states," which is much worse than anything that sir kim said in his diplomatic cables. but he — trump likes boris. he sees a kindred spirit, a big, fellow, a semi—liar, a bounder, a chancer, and he's been promoting him in british politics for years. so i think there's a predisposition to like him. i think if you believe in the virtues of the british system and civil service and diplomatic service, it would be smart to appoint a career person of stature. i'm not sure — because he has made them all worried. and if you have people that do not think you're going to look after them in the long run, they are not going to look after you. but that is the spirit of the age and johnson himself is that kind of person, who throws rocks and worries about

breaking glass later. so maybe it's a politicalfigure. he appoints a conservative person who is of some stature that cuts the divide in half. i — the bigger problem is us—uk relations. what is the uk's role? what is it doing? and that's been a problem since the war. the decision britain has made is to hitch itself, basically, to the us. there has been ups and downs, the suez canal, wilson sending troops to vietnam, but basically the idea is that the us is an important force multiplierfor britain is the choice. now, and it's sometimes paid off, but if you have somebody who doesn't believe in nato, who doesn't believe in institutions, who doesn't believe in free trade in the white house, what do you get out of it? mrs may could not have been nicer to him. she was constantly abasing herself to make sure that he didn't get mad at her. he really run roughshod over her. differences in global

warming, the peace process, they are substantive differences and borisjohnson cannot make them disappear just by appointing somebody to washington. and to come back to the red box problem. you opened this particular box, so you open it up now. this is, again, crucial to defining britain's post—brexit role. because, one of the multiplier effects in the so—called special relationship was that even in tough times, britain was a kind of bridge for the united states with a european union or a wider european continent. and that's obviously under threat now. and so, if the decision in my first day in office is to kind of pivot towards the united states, the kind of thingsjef was saying are a problem. and it's not whether you

like ordislike trump, or whether you like kim darroch or not, it is inarguably true that what kim darroch said, that this is a dysfunctional administration, is impossible to disagree with. so, if you're hitching your wagon to this particular 'horse', you have got to know what the horse is doing. and my final small example, huawei. you have, on the one hand, the americans and trump in particular saying we'll never share intelligence with you again, that huawei cannot be part of any 56 network. and then when it comes to his top priority, and that is a trade deal with china and de—escalating there, suddenly he's kind of loosening this idea that, well, maybe american companies can deal with huawei. and if you have basically said, if you're britain, anything trump

says we'll do or at least make nice towards, what happens when you're dealing with a president who changes his mind? well, agnes, why don't you answer that question? so, why not you play it a—la trump? or that is to say a—la bolsonaro? the brazilian president appointed his son as us ambassador. ok, is there someone in the johnson family? or the hunt family? there are two sides. you know, personal relations, but as you say, how do you do...? but deal with the substantive issue, agnes, are you going to offend china by saying, and this decision of course on huawei has been postponed for some time precisely because of the arrival of a new prime minister, are you going to offend the chinese by saying, effectively, golden era over, you're a security problem, huawei. we're not having you in our 5g network, or are you going to bow to your american allies? britain has put itself at such a vulnerable position because for the last 50 years,

the two pillars were close relationship with the us and membership of the eu. this is just vanishing in front of our eyes. so basically, china, i mean, have you listened to china towards britain, ? it's being pretty harsh, and it can be, because britain is in a desperate situation, wanting to strike deals — future trade deals with everyone. yes. get your colonial, interfering hands off hong kong on the matter of mass protests. britain cannot be harsh with anyone, canjust say 'oh, yes, yes, yes please!‘ you know? and it's actually terrible to see if you are a friend of britain. and yet you have to make decisions, whether you want to kick them into the long grass. for example, iran is another issue where you have to make up your mind whether you'll follow the leadership and say we are pro—gating the nuclear deal with iran, and that is an issue we have to solve here and now you can't wait for the next president

of the united states. i suppose, there may be decisions that are more pressing. you've just sent a second naval vessel to the gulf. you've got the possible interference with british commercial shipping. that's fair enough. what if something pops up there? you have to contain the iranian revolutionary guards, you cannot let them ride roughshod over free shipping and so forth, i am all in favour of stamping and putting your foot down and saying enough is enough, but the ultimate issue is what is the uk's role in the world and you can't define it right now you can hope for the end of the trump presidency and for some other constellation of factors in the world that will be more benign to your own feelings and designs, but, at the moment, i don't think we are getting anywhere by wanting to define the uk role? addison, the american man, once said in '62 britain has not found a world role after the end of herempire.

who was it? britain is exactly the same now. to press you back on your mystery—riddle—enigma, can you not pivot out as british prime minister and say to the europeans, what are you doing coherently about iran? we have to find a common vision. actually, what you said is exact at the point, i think britain has to re—involve herself with the eu. you cannot deal individually as an isolated nation with all the problems that we are now talking about. you have to have larger families of nations coming together. the iranian nuclear deal painstakingly achieved by obama and iran over a lot of time and getting used to each other is, actually, an intelligent piece of diplomacy. and the only reason that trump seems to be determined to destroy it is because it was obama's signal foreign policy accomplishment. so, the idea that we are going

to pretend and go along with america because there are our defence partner as america deliberately ratchets up the pressure to make the iranians more and more unstable and maybe hit out — i mean, the idea is you should turn down the pressure, not to turn it up! but trump's policy is either because john bolton wants it or because he likes being a strongman, he doesn't probably want a war, i don't think because that would be against his base. but there is — there was, until the most recent chaos, some move within europe, of which britain was a part, to say to the americans, with some hope, that, "look, we agree with you about iran, there should — this wasn't a perfect deal, there should be constraints on missile technology, on behaviour in the middle east, but let's find a way to negotiate this." "leave this deal intact and we will do another side to deal with the french, germans and brits." and that's coming back to the notion, of are we at a turning point where, however brexit

is accomplished, britain's role has to be redefined? so, we have only got a couple of minutes left on the programme. we have, i hope, nearly got to the bottom of the pressing red box. do you all, at this stage, feel, "bring it on!", or do you feel, as the new prime minister to the uk on that day, "show me my duvet i want to climb back under it"? agnes. well, am i borisjohnson or...? you are boris johnson orjeremy hunt. just having a cup of tea, really, and close the door. and keeping calm and carry on? probably. ned? facetiously, i'm going on holiday. if i was a serious prime minister, i would want... do you relish the challenge of that fire hose of crises upon you? if i'm boris, i pretend to relish the challenge but there is — even the best case scenario for a no—deal brexit is not very rosy. so, october the 31st

is fast upon you, thomas, are you confident of getting it done? i'm not at all confident. and that's why i think i'm going to do something quite different, i would pick up the speech that theresa may gave when she became prime minister outside the doors of number ten, a wonderful speech about how problematic this country is to govern, the injustices that need to be addressed and the people who can hardly manage evermore. i would go back to that speech and say, folks, this country is in a mess and before we talk about brexit, that has to be pushed down the ladder of priority. we deal with our domestic agenda first and foremost. numberone, numbertwo, number three issues. and you've got one sentence only in your speech, jef, sorry! help! they all laugh one word will do it. that's it for dateline london for this week, thank you all. we're back next week, same place, same time. goodbye.

hello there. after the earlier rain across south—east england, including at lord's, it is now trying up behind with high pressure around. although there are a couple of showers further north that have developed across yorkshire and lincolnshire. i've not like to rule out a shower just about anywhere but it isa out a shower just about anywhere but it is a slim chance for it words for the best of play, it should be fine and bright. some sunshine coming through. it is a similar picture for wimbledon. those are the showers we saw in the south, there are some developing across the hills of northern england and they could drift southwards but they will be few and far between. by and large, dry and bright sums it up for the

vast majority. light winds, means it will feel lovely and warm in the sunshine apart from the coastline. there will be a keen north—easterly breeze. low 20s for most of us and warmer than yesterday for scotland and northern ireland notably. the evening and overnight period sees the showers diminishing but we take up the showers diminishing but we take up low cloud of the north sea coming into eastern parts of scotland and england, limiting the temperature fell. this morning we started at 3—4 in parts of wales and under this guise, it could be quite cool early morning. otherwise we will see plenty of strong july sunshine. we have got cloud in the north of scotla nd have got cloud in the north of scotland and east of england, it ta kes scotland and east of england, it takes its time but the winds are easing so hopefully the sunshine will get to work. temperatures will be up will get to work. temperatures will beupa will get to work. temperatures will be up a degree or so. that all sta rts be up a degree or so. that all starts to change as we head towards the middle part of the week, low pressure looks more ominous. for

tuesday, although fine and dry for most, there could be the odd mountain showerfor most, there could be the odd mountain shower for wales but primarily northern ireland and scotla nd primarily northern ireland and scotland will see the initial u nsettled scotland will see the initial unsettled showery weather starting to materialise. warmth though, and getting warmer further east. the weather fronts look a little bit more potent as we head towards wednesday and by the end of the week they will start to influence areas further south. initially, the north sea has been more unsettled weather coming in mid week. friday and saturday, the rain in the south. goodbye.

this is bbc news, i'm ben brown. the headlines: more leaked memos from britain's former ambassador to washington suggest president trump abandoned the iran nuclear deal to spite barack obama. the chancellor philip hammond warns that the uk will not be able to control key elements of a no—deal brexit. a man is charged with the murder of kelly mary fauvrelle — the 26—year—old who was eight months pregnant when she was fatally stabbed at home. close, surely, this time! that's out! just the one wicket for england so far at lord's, as new zealand make a steady start to the cricket world cup final. storm barry makes landfall in the american state of louisiana,