a warning that a no—deal brexit could mean a surge in public borrowing. the public finance watchdog says leaving without an agreement could add an extra £30 billion a year to the deficit. that's largely because you have less growth in the economy, which means less income tax receipts, you also have things like weaker house prices, less property transactions so you have less capital taxes as well. it comes as the eu's chief brexit negotiator tells the bbc that britain will have to face the consequences if it leaves without a deal. this document is the only way to leave the eu in an orderly manner. and if we just left, if we tore up the membership guide? the uk would have to face the consequences. we'll have the latest live from westminster. also this lunchtime...

donald's trump supporters chant "send her back" as he again criticises one of the congresswomen he says hate america. omar has a history of launching vicious anti—semitic screeds. crowd chanting: send her back, send her back... the younger brother of the manchester arena bomber appears in court charged with 22 counts of murder. and a nightmare start for rory mcilroy at the open. and coming up on bbc news... in the women's ashes england took an early wicket, katherine brunt dismissing nicole bolton for six in a must—win test against the holders australia.

good afternoon and welcome to the bbc news at one. the government's financial watchdog has warned that a no—deal brexit could mean a surge in public borrowing of £30 billion a year. it's the first time a price has been put on the impact leaving the eu without a deal. chancellor philip hammond says the report, from the office for budget responsibility, shows there would be a "very significant hit" to the british economy. here's our economics correspondent, andy verity. it was in may 2010 that former chancellor george osborne created the office for budget responsibility. the idea was there would be somebody independent to make sure the government was sticking to its own goals for cutting the deficit, the amount by which the government outspend its income, and containing the national debt. today it warned public

finances would take a hit even if no—deal brexit didn't cause much disruption. it adds around £30 billion per year to government borrowing, and that is largely because you have less growth in the economy which means less income tax receipts, also things like weaker house prices, less property transactions so you have less capital taxes as well. there are some gains in the other direction, to begin with we will be spending less on debt interest and tariff reve nu es less on debt interest and tariff revenues but overall it is a hit to the public finances of around £30 billion per year. under this scenario, the no—deal brexit has only a limited impact and the gdp shrinks by 2% in the next year or so. shrinks by 2% in the next year or so. in that event, the 0br says, it would boost the budget deficit by £30 billion and the national debt would be 12% higher. that most benign version is not the version

thatis benign version is not the version that is being talked about by prominent brexiteers. they are talking about a much harder version which would cause more disruption to oui’ which would cause more disruption to our economy and the 0br is clear that in that less benign version of no deal, it would be much greater, the impact would be much harder, the recession would be bigger. but brexit supporters are taking the analysis with a pinch of salt. we will see, is —— as everything else, many forecasts have been completely wrong over the years, in fact any forecast from the international monetary fund right the way through to the 0br and everything else, these has often been quite wrong. but getting the public finances in order is no longer the top priority it was. the 0br says philip hammond himself has all but abandoned the goal of getting rid of the budget deficit by the mid—2020s and points

out spending promises by both of the candidates for the tory leadership would add tens of billions of pounds to the deficit and the debt. budget responsibility? it ain't what it used to be. andy verity, bbc news. meanwhile, the eu's chief brexit negotiator, michel barnier, has warned the uk it will have to "face the consequences" if it chooses to leave without a deal. mr barnier was speaking to the bbc before the start of the conservative leadership contest. both contenders — borisjohnson and jeremy hunt — have said they are prepared to see a no—deal brexit. 0ur political correspondent jessica parker reports. there may have been some warm moments, but it took many painstaking months to hammer out a brexit deal. but repeatedly rejected in parliament, could a new arrangement be on offer? the message from the eu, from an interview in may — no. we have put into the declaration with the uk —

not against the uk, with the uk — the legal answers to each and every point of uncertainty created by the brexit. that is the point, that is why this document is the only way to leave the eu in an orderly manner. and if we just left, if we just tore up the membership card? the uk will have to face the consequences. so how does that sound to those trying to succeed theresa may? he's not really known for taking an understated approach. kipper. and after michel barnier‘s stark message, supporters of borisjohnson say threats won't work. monsieur barnier is entitled to say what he likes. the reality is, though, that that deal that he talks about died, because it was voted down in the commons three times, and essentially it is no longer in existence as far as we're concerned. both leadership contenders claim they can get a better agreement, but that they are prepared to opt for a no deal exit if necessary. so jeremy hunt says brussels should budge.

i don't think it's a very constructive attitude to say that if we're going to solve this problem it's the deal we have, take it or leave it — especially when that deal has already been rejected by parliament three times, and i think wiser heads in europe will recognise that it is in both sides' interests to find a solution to this problem. so you've got two leadership candidates saying that the current brexit deal won't do, and the eu saying that that is all that's on offer, so unless something or someone shifts, a no deal departure appears ever more likely. and what of how the uk handled the initial negotiations? speaking in march, a senior eu commissioner had some unflattering recollections. my god, they haven't got a plan, they haven't got a plan. that was really shocking, frankly, because then the damage, if you don't have a plan and, you know, we see it, that time is running out, you don't have a plan,

you know, it's like lance corporaljones, you know, "don't panic, don't panic," running around like idiots. i think mr timmermans needs to stop with the childish insults, and if he was such a big fan of dad's army he would know the riposte from captain mainwaring to such comments — "stupid boy." so a stand—off and some tough talk. the challenge for whoever moves in here next week — changing that narrative, moving the conversation on. jessica parker, bbc news. you can see that bbc panorama programme in full tonight on bbc 0ne. let's speak now to our assistant political editor, norman smith, who's in westminster. two dire warnings, but brexiteers are not impressed. in a funny sort of way you almost feel as if we have

gone round in a circle and we are back where we were three years ago in the middle of the brexit referendum with the remainer is citing these warnings of the damage no deal would do to the economy and brexiteers saying what are the experts know? the differences whereas mrs may was deeply opposed to no deal and we learn in tonight's programme that you never even threatened to leave on no deal, the contenders to replace her are perfectly ready to take us out without an agreement and this morning they have been doubling down on no deal with jeremy morning they have been doubling down on no deal withjeremy hunt suggesting the eu is trying to get us suggesting the eu is trying to get us back to the negotiating table on our knees, warning that if we have to leave with no deal it will damage relations with europe for a generation. borisjohnson's relations with europe for a generation. boris johnson's team saying that if he becomes prime minister he will ramp up no deal preparations, and wait for europe to

come to britain. if they don't, it is no deal. i guess if that is where we do end up, then we are going to find out pretty soon whether those experts were right all along. norman, thank you very much indeed. norman, thank you very much indeed. norman smith. labour peers are to decide later today whether to hold a vote of no confidence injeremy corbyn. it comes after the labour leader sacked a senior spokeswoman in the lords for comparing his team's approach to handling criticism to that shown in a fictional film of nazi leader adolf hitler's final days. the no confidence move would not be binding, but would heighten pressure on the leadership which has been heavily criticised over the pa rty‘s handling of anti—semitism allegations. prosecutors have alleged the younger brother of the manchester arena bomber salman abedi made detonator tubes for the device that killed 22 people. hashem abedi, who's been extradited from libya, appeared in court today, and pleaded not guilty to 22 counts of murder.

it's also alleged he bought chemicals used to make explosives, and a car in which bomb making materials were stored. daniel sandford was in court. after spending his first night in britain since the manchester arena bombing at southwark police station, hashem abedi was brought to his first court appearance in an armoured police van. in the dock, he confirmed his name and his british citizenship and then listened as the names of all 22 people he is accused of murdering were read out. he's also accused of attempting to murder others at the ariana grande concert and of conspiracy to cause an explosion. it was his older brother, salman abedi, who detonated the bomb. the allegation is that hashem abedi helped him to buy the car where the bomb parts were stored, and two chemicals used to make the explosive. it's also suggested he made the detonator tubes. his lawyer said he denies any involvement and was happy to come back to clear his name. he said he'd been held

in solitary confinement for two years and had been tortured. bringing him back from war—torn libya has not been easy. it's been a long and difficult negotiation and there was even a hitch yesterday, when the private jet that was to fly him here developed a fault when travelling from malta to tripoli. this morning's hearing lasted just 11 minutes and then he was driven away again. hashem abedi has now been taken away to prison, where he will remain until a court appearance at oxford crown court on monday, when he will appear by video link for a bail hearing. daniel sandford, bbc news, at westminster magistrates' court. president trump has continued his racially charged attacks on four non—white democratic congresswomen. speaking at a campaign rally, he accused the four of hating america. the crowd responded with chants of "send her back". a bid to impeach mr trump was blocked in the house of representatives last night.

our world affairs correspondent paul adams has the latest. with every rally, with every tweet, the temperature rises. donald trump's re—election campaign is well under way. this is what the next year will look and sound like. and tonight i have a suggestion for the hate filled extremists who are co nsta ntly hate filled extremists who are constantly trying to tear our country down. they never have anything good to say. that's why i say if they don't like it, let them leave. and who are these dangerous people? they are four recently elected members of congress, all women of colour, all members of the democratic party, all fierce critics of the president. three are american by birth, one, ilhan 0mar, came to

america as a child. in his north carolina speech, mr trump attacked all four but his reference to 0mar triggered a new slogan. omar has a history of launching vicious anti—semitic screeds. history of launching vicious anti-semitic screeds. three years ago the chant was lock her up, now it is sent her back. the president's critics are appalled. not since george wallace 50 years ago has racial demagoguery featured so prominently in a presidential campaign. but in 2019 for donald trump it works. i like it because it seems to work. he has a lot of following. everything is so touchy with all of them. they have no sense of humour, they have no common sense. i'm sorry, just a bunch of idiots. republicans are standing by

their man, but not without embarrassment. a racist to go back to somalia because you are somalian or muslim or whatever. that's just the way he is, more narcissism than anything else. in congress last nightan anything else. in congress last night an attempt to start impeachment proceedings lost heavily. 0ther efforts will follow. as election season comes around again, battle lines are being drawn. paul adams, bbc news. 12 israelis, aged 15 to 18, have appeared in court in cyprus in connection with the rape of a british holiday—maker. the alleged attack took place in the popular resort of ayia napa. the foreign office has confirmed it is supporting a british woman and is in contact with the police. tom bateman is in paralimni, where today's court appearance was held. it was in the early hours of yesterday morning that a 19—year—old british woman contacted the police just down the road in ayia napa to say she had been raped in the hotel

she was staying in. later that day the authorities arrested 12 teenagers, they are all israeli aged between 15 and 18. in the last hour and a half they have appeared in court. as they arrived, they covered their faces with jackets, came court. as they arrived, they covered theirfaces with jackets, came into theirfaces with jackets, came into the court room, they were handcuffed in pairs as their parents shouted m essa 9 es in pairs as their parents shouted m essa g es of in pairs as their parents shouted messages of support, some of whom had flown from israel, and embraced their children as they were taken into the courtroom. the judge confirmed their names but then told reporters to leave due to the young age of one of them, the 15—year—old. they were remanded in custody for another eight days to give police more time to investigate. no charges have yet been brought, but as for the british authorities, they say they are in contact, they are supporting this 19—year—old woman in ayia napa and in contact with the local police here. tom, thank you.

bateman reporting. the time is 1:16. our top story this lunchtime. a warning that a no—deal brexit could mean a surge in public borrowing — leaving without an agreement could add an extra £30 billion a year to the deficit. we are live on the thames, where some new safety proposals are threatening this river's little ships. and coming up on bbc news... one of the favourites to win the open, rory mcilroy has got off to a terrible start at royal portush with a quadruple bogey on the first hole. a bbc investigation has found that primary school pupils are being repeatedly rejected for mental health support. freedom of information requests from 46 health trusts across the uk showed the number of mental health referrals by primary schools have risen by nearly 50 % over the last three years, to just over 31,500 children.

while the government says it's committed to improving mental health support, the royal college of psychiatrists say the figures are "deeply worrying". our special correspondent ed thomas has more. as a team of staff we'll quite often cry together over what we're hearing children say. i think it's going to take the death a child before people start taking it more seriously. i think the government needs to decide whether they want us to be social workers and mental health workers, or educators. the bbc has been hearing from schools across the country about the mental health of their pupils. when you have a child in year four who is talking about self—harm or talking about suicide, that's shocked a number of staff. talking about suicide, wondering what it would feel like, and having those conversations quite regularly. it's incredibly distressing when you hear a child as young as six, seven, express that level of unhappiness with their life.

freedom of information responses from 46 health trusts across the uk indicate the number of referrals made to child mental health services by primary schools for those aged 11 and under increased by nearly 50% over the last three years. i find it really abhorrent. there's nothing that we can realistically do that is going to give the child the help that that child needs. for serious cases schools can refer to child mental health services. some head teachers say securing support can be a challenge. external resources are reducing rapidly because of financial constraints. camhs was the agency needed. two years it's taken and we are still waiting for an assessment for a child who has experienced extreme mental health distress. primary schools can't solve everything. we need help. the government told us it was determined to improve mental health services,

and by 2024, 345,000 more children and young people will have access to specialist care. ed thomas, bbc news. if you, or someone you know, has been affected by mental health issues, there are details of organisations who offer help and support on the bbc‘s actionline website. at least 26 people have been killed in a suspected arson attack on an animation studio in kyoto. police say dozens are injured and fear the death toll may rise further, as many are still missing. officials have been quoted as saying a man broke into the kyoto animation company studio and sprayed petrol before igniting it. there was an explosion and flames engulfed the studio. the suspect is now in police custody. the japanese prime minister shinzo abe condemned the attack as "too appalling for words".

police are solving fewer crimes than ever before, according to new figures out today. less than eight % of crimes in england and wales were solved in the year to march. those figures also reveal knife crime has reached a record high. police recorded more than 43,000 offences involving knives or sharp blades in the past year — the highest since records began in 2011. more than 6,500 arrests have been made across england and wales for attacks on emergency workers since tougher new laws were introduced last year. the figures include attacks on the police, paramedics, firefighters and prison officers. james vincent has the details. i'm now recording. it's the eighth of february at 9:58. no, you're not. bleep. good. i went to have a polite chat as part of my role as a community support officer and unprovoked, he attacked me. carlos archer's attacker is serving seven months in prison after being convicted of two charges, including assault

on an emergency worker. hiya, how are you doing, all right? the new law is designed to protect ambulance crews, firefighters, police and pcsos. bbc research shows there were more than 6000 arrests across england and wales under the new law in its first six months. my two kids asked me, daddy, who did that to your nose? i had to put it into terms that they understand and "goodies" and "baddies" as such, the old —fashioned way, and unfortunately a baddie had decided to break daddy's nose when daddy wasn't looking. in the first six months of the law the metropolitan police said it made 1283 arrests. west yorkshire police made 504 arrests and west midlands police made 497. but the mp who helped bring in the law thinks tougher sentences should be handed out. the numbers of arrests still show that there is a problem. i don't want to see in court suspended sentences, which i think are offensive to those who've been victims of crime, where there are community

resolutions that are not then honoured by the perpetrator, dealt with outside of court. we've got to get really tough on this. we owe that to our emergency service workers. we're under attack from fireworks. at the moment the maximum sentence is 12 months. firefighter dave gilliam was involved in an attack similar to this one. for him, tougher sentences still won't work. we started getting pelted by fireworks. it was obviously, the fire had been set we believe to draw us into that corner and for a few seconds i couldn't see anything. it's a personal view but i'm not convinced this is going to change anything. i think those people know that what they are doing is wrong and that they could get into trouble for it, so i'm not sure any extra legislation is really going to stop it. a ministry ofjustice spokesperson said, attacking our hard—working emergency staff will not be tolerated and the law was brought in so those who commit such violence quite rightly face a stronger punishment, doubling the sentence from six to 12 months. but some are now pushing for a minimum sentence for those

who attack emergency services staff. james vincent, bbc news. golf now — and despite being on home turf rory mcilroy has got off to a terrible start to the open championship. from the very first hole he was in trouble, but with the competition being held in northern ireland for first time in 68 years, the fight back has begun. andy swiss has been watching the action. ba rely barely breakfast time and already long queues at portrush, but what's a few extra minutes when you've waited 68 years? have your tickets ready, please. that's the last time the open came here. excited? just a bit. you feel the atmosphere as soon as you walk through the doors there, it's fantastic. to have it on our doorstep, the open, that is special. we've got the best golfers, so why not have it here. who would you like

to see when? the ferret here is rory, but as long as they are irish it doesn't matter. it was one local legend who got the ball rolling. darren clark. cheering and applause . the former open champion, whose house overlooks the course, enjoyed a decent start, going round in level par, but the real drama was yet to come. for all the big names here, all eyes were on one, the favourite. but rory mcilroy‘s dreams were about to become a nightmare. his first shot went out of bounds and that was just the start. calamity followed calamity as he ended up taking eight shots on the opening hole, had his chances already vanished ? shots on the opening hole, had his chances already vanished? a better start for scotland's robert macintyre. he briefly took the lead after showing his pinpoint precision. and hayter. just

magnificent. but no doubting the price for shot of the day so far and it will take some beating. hole number13, it will take some beating. hole number 13, lucky for some, as argentina's emiliano grillo took the direct approach, a hole in one! cheering an early moment of open magic. we are still very early days of course, but two players are currently leading the way. ireland's shane lowry, and south africa's dylan frittelli. as for rory mcilroy, well, he has a steady things a little after that terrible start but he is still three over par. plenty of big names are still to start their round this afternoon including tiger woods will stop andy, lots to look forward to, thank you very much indeed. tens of thousands of passengers every year enjoy a trip down the river thames on board historic "little ships". the oldest boat in service dates back to 1892, while another took part in the dunkirk

evacuations in 1940. but the department for transport says new safety regulations could mean they have to be rebuilt. owners claim the costs involved would force them to scrap the boats. robert hall is on board one of them for us today. there are about 80 vessels right around the uk that in theory at risk from these new regulations. this is the connacht, she's one of them, built in 1911. she's been carrying passengers on this stretch river from central london out to hampton court since that day. that's her past. her future is court since that day. that's her past. herfuture is rather more uncertain. i took a trip on her yesterday to find out more. welcome aboard the passenger vessel connaught, built a century ago and like her sister ships still plying her trade on the 24 mile route from central london to hampton court. they are a unique design. they were

built for the thames. the tide is out at low water, they can get under the bridges, which are quite low in this part of london, and they allow passengers still do have access to these historic roots which actually are, as anyone who has been on them, are, as anyone who has been on them, are quite magnificent. river stea mers are quite magnificent. river steamers launched for a tourism boom during the reign of queen victoria also saw military service. the connaught was called up as a hospital ship during world war ii. we see a statue by a gentleman. the old river boats were designed to carry their passengers in comfort and some style. by the 19605 the river and some 5tyle. by the 19605 the river was buzzing with traffic, but now modern safety standards are about to catch up with the last survivors from the original fleet. for vessels like this the new regulations could mean a virtual rebuild. the connaught, for example, would lose one of her most distinctive features. it's this

saloon at the rear of the vessel. it would be cut off, the deck would be re—plated with bulkheads but underneath and the family owned her and two other vessels they would cost £500,000 per boat, they simply can't afford it. dan adams is connaught‘s skipper and tour guide. he says the safety review threatens his livelihood. it's not practical to do it and it would send the company out of business, which then in turn if they go out of business, i'll go out of business because i'll no longer have a job. outside there was sympathy amongst his passengers. if these boats are good enough for dunkirk they are certainly good enough for us. it would be a terrible shame. if it's managed all these years and it's perfectly safe, why keep changing things? the report's there is room for manoeuvre but they have to on course —— the report's authors say there's room for manoeuvre. there's room for discussion say different parts of the thames, further upstream, where

there is less hazard in the tidal stretch if you like, that survivability is really important in bringing those older boats up to the same standards that new boats are constructed to. the recommendations go before parliament later this year. the future of these river vetera ns year. the future of these river veterans hangs in the balance. the owners are of course extremely worried stop they have support in parliament, cross—party support, led by lord west, the former first sea lord. that impetus if you like is growing, but when the report comes back to parliament there has to be significant questions by then to be asked, so we shall see what happens. at the moment the whole thing is on a knife edge. robert, thank you very much indeed, robert, thank you very much indeed, robert hall. time for a look at the weather. the weather is not too bad on the thames, what about the rest of the country?