hazard in the u‘l‘r “a it‘uié: itiifigfl there is less hazard in the tidal stretch if you like, that survivability is really important in bringing those older boats up to the same standards that new boats are constructed to. the recommendations go before parliament later this year. the future of these river vetera ns year. the future of these river veterans hangs in the balance. the owners are of course extremely worried stop they have support in parliament, cross—party support, led by lord west, the former first sea lord. that impetus if you like is growing, but when the report comes back to parliament there has to be significant questions by then to be asked, so we shall see what happens. at the moment the whole thing is on a knife edge. robert, thank you very much indeed, robert, thank you very much indeed, robert hall. time for a look at the weather. the weather is not too bad on the thames, what about the rest of the

country? a bit of cloud around but it's brightening up through the afternoon. we've had a fair amount of cloud and drizzly rain across south—east england and east anglia, this is the recent view of botany bay and kent. as the cloud and rain clear away from the east for most of us clear away from the east for most of us it's a kellie bright story. sunny spells, a few showers on the cards. most of the showers in the north—west. this is the recent satellite and radar, it shows a peppering of showers for northern ireland and scotland, cloud in the southeast with a frock few spots of drizzle but over the next couple of hours the cloud clears away from the east and then it's a north—south split. for the bulk of england and wales things are dry with a lot of sunshine, 21—24d, fair weather cloud, not wall—to—wall blue skies. one or two showers for anglesey, cumbria, the isle of man, but it's northern ireland and scotland that will see the bulk of the showers through the afternoon, some fairly heavy with the odd rumble of thunder mixed in and for the golfers at the open there's a chance we'll see a

few more of those showers on and off through the course of the afternoon. tomorrow we could wealthy a little bit more persistent rain affecting royal portrush. into this evening and overnight most of those showers in the north will ease away so quite a lot of dry, reasonably clear weather for a a lot of dry, reasonably clear weatherfor a time a lot of dry, reasonably clear weather for a time and a bit fresher than recent nights, so temperatures down to about 10—14 degrees. during the early hours of friday the next batch of rain moves in towards the south—west. that could be a bit of a troublemaker for south—west. that could be a bit of a troublemakerfor some south—west. that could be a bit of a troublemaker for some of the through the day on friday. it's going to bring quite heavy rain across parts of south—east england and south wales. this is quite welcome rainfall especially southern parts of england where it's been a very dryjuly so far, but the rain makes its way northwards and eastwards across the uk so many places seeing across the uk so many places seeing a spell of wet weather through the day tomorrow. it's the north of scotla nd day tomorrow. it's the north of scotland that stays driest for longest. temperature 17—21 degrees, a touch cooler than recent days, more showers working into the south later on but through the course of the weekend the first batch of low pressure clears away towards the east, original higher pressure for a

time as we head into sunday, more rain works in from the north—west. saturday will be a day of sunny spells and scattered showers. most of the showers across england and wales, dryerfor of the showers across england and wales, dryer for scotland and northern ireland but temperatures creeping up compared to friday so up to about 23 degrees also in the warmest spots. it looks like as we head into sunday that will probably be your better day of the weekend. a lot of dry weather, more rain working in towards the north—west later in the day, before things then turn quite a bit warmer as we head into next week. a reminder of our top story... a warning that no—deal brexit could meana surging a warning that no—deal brexit could mean a surging public borrowing, adding an extra £30 billion a year to the deficit. that's all from the bbc news at one. it's goodbye from me. on bbc one we nowjoin the bbc‘s news teams where you are. have a very good afternoon.

in the last few minutes parliament has been voting on a key amendment thatis has been voting on a key amendment that is very important for how brexit will play out, around the extended date that the uk is due to leave the eu. the amendment would prevent the next prime minister being able to prorogue parliament, thatis being able to prorogue parliament, that is to stop the house of commons from sitting, to force a no deal exit from the eu. this is really a showdown over those moves to prevent a no—deal brexit and mps are having the chance to vote on legislation to thwart, potentially, efforts by the next prime minister to try to suspend parliament to force through the eu withdrawal without an agreement on october the 31st. with me now is mohair saint who used to

be special adviser to the home secretary, amber rudd. what you make of what is going on? i think it is almost come the new pm has not been appointed but it's a big test for them in terms of the numbers. the numbers have not changed. we have been distracted by this leadership campaign, the hustings and pronouncement in the last few weeks but the reality of parliamentary arithmetic has come back in force and it shows the challenge that the next prime minister will have to try to get things through and build coalitions in the house of commons. we are expecting amber rudd to vote with the government?” we are expecting amber rudd to vote with the government? i think we will have to wait and see. i think she will vote with the government line on this. she has made her views quite clear in the last few weeks. i also think what has changed in the last few months is the prime minister's deal has been defeated three times, the talks with labour

have not worked. this fictional table where lots of options were kept has vastly decreased in size and the reality, to delete with both leadership contenders now talking quite seriously about no deal, the para meters quite seriously about no deal, the parameters have changed as well. the other thing to watch and to see is the level of any dissent. we are six days away from a new pm, there are a lot of people, whether in the papers oi’ lot of people, whether in the papers or appearing lot of people, whether in the papers orappearing in lot of people, whether in the papers or appearing in gossip around westminster, don't expect to be in the government going forward. there is an element of if you wait to be sacked or you go out on your own terms and on a cause that you feel strongly about. do you think we are heading... happened and parliament we re heading... happened and parliament were prorogued, to what extent would that be a constitutional crisis that would embroil the queen? that be a constitutional crisis that would embroil the queen7m that be a constitutional crisis that would embroil the queen? it would that be a constitutional crisis that would embroilthe queen? it would be a very serious issue. and a big problem on many levels. firstly, the

big mantra of the vote lead campaigns to take back control and that meant for parliament as well. —— vote leave. the thought parliament not being allowed to sit ona parliament not being allowed to sit on a key decision is slightly absurd. we are meant to be the mother of all democracies, the mother of all democracies, the mother of all democracies, the mother of parliaments so how does that look to our international partners and friends around the world ? partners and friends around the world? the uk plc, there would be a big reputational hit on that as well. boris johnson has not ruled it out, has he? he has not. jeremy hunt has but boris has not the fault of his team would probably say this is about keeping all options on the table but i think there are limits. you have to remember that no deal, if there is no deal, that is one piece of this jigsaw. a lot of legislation it needs to happen for which you need mps, mps on the side.

this doesn't really bode well for the relationship that a future pm would have with parliamentary colleagues. in a world where we move on from brexit, whenever that might be, there is a hold domestic agenda policy to get through, most of which will need legislation. this should be about building a consensus and alliances, not just telling be about building a consensus and alliances, notjust telling people they cannot turn up to work and do theirjobs. when you talk about building consensus, we know there is not a consensus on brexit in parliament. exactly, and we have seen that where mps and the indicative votes did not work either. things have changed slightly since then but the answer to this surely cannot be you dismiss parliament just because surely cannot be you dismiss parliamentjust because some things have not worked in the past. there isa have not worked in the past. there is a view that things might focus peoples minds, certain on the conservative side and this might be a show of strength to the new prime minister as they start their roll equally come on the back peoples minds will be the thought of an

early election which most tory mps do not want either. could be a factor in how people vote today and going forward. there is a report coming out from the obr and the impact of no—deal brexit which is very serious and you have been covering here. that will play a part. it's very fast moving, with different factors coming into play and people will have different reasons for voting the way they do. i think we are getting the vote now. order. the ice to the right, 315, the noes to the left, 274. —— the ayes to the right. the ayes to the right, 315. the noes

to the left, 274. the eyes of habit, the ayes have it. unlock! the question is that this house disagrees with the lords in their amendment numberone as disagrees with the lords in their amendment number one as amended. as many as the opinion say i. of the country say no. division! clear the lobby. that vote going through by quite a big margin. we can get some analysis

on that. what you make of that? big margin. we can get some analysis on that. what you make of that7m wasn't a knife edge or as close as people may have thought. i think a margin of 20 or so. there are more votes happening as we speak on the different parts of the amendment for them i think we might have to wait and see the sum of the parts together but it feels like most people will have stuck to the government line on this. there may well have been some abstentions but the key to look out for is certain figures who have been speaking out today, like the chancellor, the justice secretary, the business secretary, what they have done. there was a rumour that a government minister has also voted against the government. i think we need to see the details and follow these peoples actions. thank you very much indeed.

our political correspondentjessica parkeris our political correspondentjessica parker is at westminster with the latest on that vote. talk us through it significance. the division bell is going on behind me and votes are continuing between have had this vote on the crucial amendment and to give you the big picture, there are effo rts give you the big picture, there are efforts under way by amending the northern ireland bill to stop a future prime minister from suspending parliament in order to drive through a no—deal brexit. that amendment has passed by 315 to 274, so that is a government loss is me might still be in charge but this is very much directed at borisjohnson, widely seen as the man likely to ta ke widely seen as the man likely to take over at number ten next week and who has not ruled out suspending parliament in order to put through a no—deal brexit. parliament in order to put through a no-deal brexit. there is increasing talk about the possibility firstly

ofa talk about the possibility firstly of a no—deal brexit and secondly of pro rocking parliament soaked does all this make that a more distant possibility —— pro .it . it makes it harder but there are a few caveats. we will see as the debate moves onward moves and counter moves can occui’. debate moves onward moves and counter moves can occur. this is still a piece of legislation that is going through parliament. the amendment attempts to make sure that parliament is sitting on certain days over the period you could potentially see prorogation but it is just legislation at the moment going through the commons and it will have to probably go back to the lords. it is not as though it is signed, sealed and delivered. what will happen now, as long as boris johnson does not rule out the possibility of suspending parliament, we will see mps from a number of whom, many of whom, about opposed to the no—deal brexit and the idea of suspending parliament in order to make it happen, they will keep battling borisjohnson in any way they can in order to stop him from doing that worth saying that

borisjohnson has always said he is strongly not attracted to the idea of suspending parliament but he does not want to take it off the table because he wants the eu to know he is serious about trying to deliver brexit on october the 31st. and part of the reason that proroguing parliament is so controversial is that it would embroil the queen, potentially, in huge constitutional controversy and crisis because effectively she would have to sign it off. exactly and to suspend parliament the prime minister has to go and see the queen. a lot of people say that would be entirely inappropriate and could provoke something of a constitutional crisis because it would draw her into politics. it is worth saying that we are in completely unprecedented territory here. it really is not clear at the moment how these events would play out. there's been discussion as to whether the queen could say, i want to consult my privy counsellors before making this decision but what is clear is this battle over prorogation will keep

going on because a number of mps are extremely worried about the prospect. you do have the other side who say, don't take anything off the table because we had to talk tough to the eu and show them we are serious in order to try to get a better agreement out of brussels. and also, the way mps have voted here, does that give us an indication of the potential trouble ahead for any prime minister trying to get their way on brexit, whoever it is. it will be very interesting to see how these folks have shaken down. we have the immediate figures and we will see if any members of the government have abstained or indeed voted against their own administration. we need to watch out for the names on the list. what i would say as a word of caution is that we have seen a lot of these knife edge votes, high—stakes, the numbers tend to chop and change a bit depending on what the situation is at any given time but it will be interesting to see how people have

voted. i think borisjohnson‘s team, if it is in that takes over next week, we'll be looking at these numbers very closely. we are just hearing from nick watt that margot james, ministerfor digital hearing from nick watt that margot james, minister for digital and creative industries, was one of those who voted against the government and is resigning as a minister. it is yet another example of how brexit, it is a matter of conscience for so many mps and get another resignation. and i think it would be very interesting in the next few day to see if anybody else follows suit. there has been a lot of discussion and chatter about whether a number of ministers who are in post at the moment but who would likely may be not be asked to serve in a borisjohnson administration or not feel co mforta ble administration or not feel comfortable serving in one, whether before he takes over, if indeed he does next week, whether they would jump does next week, whether they would jump before they are sacked in order to make a point and jump before they are sacked in order to make a pointand it jump before they are sacked in order to make a point and it sounds like margotjames to make a point and it sounds like margot james has done that today, deciding to vote against the

government and resign. her name had been a number talked about as a possibility, but i think at this stage it's quite possible we will see more of the same in the coming days. we are in a fascinating period, a kind of limbo withjust a few days of theresa may's premiership left, we don't know who the new man in downing street will be although everybody pretty much assumes that borisjohnson is the favourite. but three years on, we still don't know what is happening with brexit. you are right. what we have had today with these interviews from panorama is it seems like the impasse between brussels and the uk is in place with these new leadership contenders. both jeremy huntand leadership contenders. both jeremy hunt and boris johnson leadership contenders. both jeremy hunt and borisjohnson say they leadership contenders. both jeremy hunt and boris johnson say they find the current deal as it stands unacceptable. the eu are saying that is the only deal on the table. u nless is the only deal on the table. unless something changes then it makes a no deal scenario more likely. i think that is probably why

the tempo has been upped in westminster. a number of mps who may have thought that theresa may wasn't likely to actually pursue a no deal when push came to shove, they may not have that feeling about boris johnson. it has been interesting because the northern ireland bill, which is all about providing effective governance in northern ireland while the assembly is not sitting, it has been used and amended one dup source said it had been dressed up like a christmas tree in order to play out this battle regarding the potential suspension of parliament and that prospect of a no—deal brexit on october the 31st. worth mentioning thatjeremy hunt has ruled out suspending parliament but as you mentioned, many people expect it will be boris johnson mentioned, many people expect it will be borisjohnson taking over next week and not mr hunt although we should say that politics brings up we should say that politics brings up all sorts of surprises these days. indeed. stay with us if you can. iwant days. indeed. stay with us if you can. i want to go back to mo, former special adviser to amber rudd. this

is quite a significant vote, i know it is one of a series but how do you read its significance in the big picture of brexit and where we go next? it is significant because it isa next? it is significant because it is a stumbling block to the plans that have been put in place certainly by the frontrunner to become the next prime minister, borisjohnson. i become the next prime minister, boris johnson. i think become the next prime minister, borisjohnson. i think it goes back to the point, we have seen it time and again, about parliament not having a single position, being divided. where this leads to, if there is going to be this opposition toa no there is going to be this opposition to a no deal and boris is not taking it off the table, something will have to give at some point. that parliamentary sweet spot has not been found for a deal. whilst a deal might still be peoples preference, if you can't get one, there will be a blot on no deal and then you get into what i think many people, they

might roll their eyes and certainly conservatives and labour might feel, an early general election. you then get into the scope of changing the numbers in parliament. all of this happening now, does it make a general election more likely?” think it does, i think it brings it closer also certainly before 2022 but the risk with that is that a lot of people want to see brexit dealt with before you get to the general election so it isn't another issue on the ballot paper again where we are having the same conversation we had three years ago, and we get back to the old dividing lines of leave and remain. whether that can happen, giving the activist spigot we have, the views of mps we have seen —— activist speaker. that is another question. the chatter among boris johnson supporters, or some of them, appears to be that he thinks he could win an election againstjeremy

corbyn. thatjeremy corbyn is there for the taking. but if he has not got brexit through by that time, is the vulnerable and how vulnerable to nigel farage and the brexit party? that's right, he is extremely vulnerable. words do matter so using phrases like do or die by leaping at the end of october, people will remember that fault of the party faithful will remember that. he will bejudged on that. if he faithful will remember that. he will be judged on that. if he does faithful will remember that. he will bejudged on that. if he does not deliver what people want by the end of october, then you see people like nigel farage in the ascendancy once again. that is a risk, the risk of corbyn on one side which i think he is comfortable with. labour have the own issues with their failure to deal with anti—semitism, and the discord on the brexit position. i think he would be comfortable with that part but the risk of nigel farage and the failure to deliver what he had said he would, i think thatis what he had said he would, i think that is quite a big risk for him. mo

hussein, thank you very much indeed for being with us again, former special adviser to amber rudd. we can bring in professor meg russell who is a professor of british and comparative politics at university couege comparative politics at university college london. thank you for being with us. how do you see this vote? effectively and potentially tying the hands of the next prime minister, critically boris johnson if it is him, if you wanted to prorogue parliament?” if it is him, if you wanted to prorogue parliament? i think what it is at the least is a very strong signal. the numbers are interesting. it is quite a heavy defeat. and later on, we are all expecting a shake—up in government it boris johnson becomes prime minister and that quite a number of ministers will be leaving government who might be keen to block no deal in the future so that numbers will not get better for future so that numbers will not get betterfor him. at future so that numbers will not get better for him. at the least this is a strong signal where the numbers are lying in parliament and the obstacles are lying in parliament and the o bsta cles he are lying in parliament and the obstacles he would face but it is

also clearly trying to put practical obstacles also clearly trying to put practical o bsta cles in also clearly trying to put practical obstacles in the way, requiring by law ministers to come back to parliament on a regular basis which means that parliament has to be sitting. yes, this is quite significant. explain to us, if parliament were prorogued, people are talked about the constitutional crisis that would spark and it would involve the queen and it would be something but not unprecedented but a huge step. talk to exactly what it would mean constitutionally. at one level, prorogation is absolutely normal possibly generally happens once a year between one session and the next before the queen's speech. prorogation is not a dirty word but what is very unusual if the idea of proroguing parliament for a political reason. specifically in order to prevent mps taking a decision that they want to take. that is a very problematic idea. it has been objected to by many people

across the political spectrum including andrea leadsom, for example, when she was running in the conservative leadership. she is strongly in favour of brexit. there isa strongly in favour of brexit. there is a constitutional principle, that you don't close down parliament in order to prevent it making decisions. sure, you prorogued on an administrative basis for a few days before a clean‘s speech but some people have been talking about there being a queen's speech conveniently at the beginning of november in order that, what a surprise, parliament will have to be prorogued in the beginning of october and that is clearly manoeuvring in order to do something that mps don't want doing and they have sent a clear signal that they don't want it doing. the risk with using prorogation as a political tool is that you bring the monarch into politics. you need the consent of the monarchy in order to prorogue and if she is presented with a very difficult question as to whether she should give her consent to parliament being closed down then

you are putting the queen in a very difficult position. one of the things people are trying to do is avoid that situation occurring here. how dangerous potentially, constitutionally, would that be, to embroil the monarch like that?” think people would go to very great lengths to avoid it. i think this vote is very significant. it is laying down some requirements in law that parliament has to be sitting, which is not just that parliament has to be sitting, which is notjust a signal but a binding decision of parliament, binding decision of parliament, binding on the government. actually i'm not even sure whether it was necessary because i think there were other political means of preventing this happening already this is a sort of belt and braces approach if you like. they are going the full weight to make it very clear. even without this decision today, i think that if the prime minister in the

autumn had sought a prorogation, it might be that mps could have blocked that in the autumn. prorogation does not happen at the snap of a prime minister's fingers, there has to be a meeting of the privy council presided over by the queen and that ta kes presided over by the queen and that takes some time to organise. i think that mps might well have stepped in at that point and said, stop. i suppose what they have done is to try to avoid that situation occurring, to try to avoid the involvement of the monarch in very controversial decision. we are going away from the summer knowing that can't happen. that is probably rather a relief to buckingham palace! we are just hearing, to fill you in and the viewers as well, that i7 you in and the viewers as well, that 17 conservative mps voted against the government on this very significant amendment and we are also hearing that several cabinet ministers have gone or have

abstained. philip hammond, greg, rory stewart and david gauke amongst them. thank you very much for being with us. —— greg clarke. several cabinet ministers have abstained in that crucial vote. we will try to get more details but it looks like philip hammond, greg clarke, rory stewart a nd philip hammond, greg clarke, rory stewart and david gauke are amongst them. more detail on that at the top of the hour with assignment but lets look at the weather with sarah. —— with simon after a warm and largely dry wood, the weather has been changing in the past 24 hours with the arrival of some welcome rain in southern part. this was earlier in kent, a lot of cloud around. heading through the softening, things should brighten up with the sunny spells for most but a you shower particularly in the north—west. scotland and northern ireland have some in particular this afternoon. further south in england

and wales, it is largely dry and sunny. a bit of cloud holding on in the far south—east. 21—24d, a bit ever breeze from the west but fine for much of northern england. those are the showers in northern ireland and scotland, quite blustery but hit and scotland, quite blustery but hit and miss. the odd rumble of thunder mixed in with some of the heavier ones. the open continues at royal portrush. we further showers at times. we could see some more significant rainfall affecting the open. overnight, the showers in the north fade away so a lot of dry and clear weather but later on you will notice the cloud and rain coming into the south—west of england and south wales. more fresh than recently so temperatures hold up, io-i4d. recently so temperatures hold up, 10—14d. tomorrow it will be in this area of low pressure that delivers a fairamount of rain, area of low pressure that delivers a fair amount of rain, particularly heavy rain packing into south wales

through the morning. south—west england and northern ireland also have some and it then pushes northwards and eastwards. many of us will see a spell of wet weather followed by showery rain after the main band. northern scotland as the driest weather and temperatures are a little cooler, 17—21d. on saturday, the low project gets out of the way to the east and later on sunday we have the next one moving in from the north—west. a bit of a changeable theme. on saturday we lose the initial rain from the east quite quickly, then have some sunshine and scattered showers almost everywhere. a little bit warmer compared to friday with temperatures in the low 20s. it looks like sunday will bring the best day of the weekend but further rain arriving in the later on.

hello, you're watching afternoon live, i'm simon mccoy. today at two... the eyes—mac to you right, 315. the nose— mac to the eyes—mac to you right, 315. the nose—mac to the left, 274. —— the ayes to the right, 315, the noes to the left, 274. a blow for the government — and the next prime minister — mps back an amendment that would make the suspension of parliament much harder. at least five cabinet ministers, including philip hammond, abstain from voting and a government minister — margot james — resigns. the public finance watchdog says a no—deal brexit could add an extra 30 billion pounds a year to the deficit — and put