today at six — the official tax and spending watchdog gives its verdict on the cost of a no—deal brexit. it says there could be a £30 billion hit to the public finances. you have less growth in the economy which means less income tax receipts. you also have things like weaker house prices, less property transactions. the watchdog's assessment comes after m ps the watchdog's assessment comes after mps voted to make it harder for the next prime minister to force through a no—deal brexit. also tonight — the brother of the manchester arena attacker appears in court — he's accused of helping to make the bomb that caused such carnage. get on the ground! are too many criminals getting away with it? a record low for the proportion of crimes solved. crowd chant "send her back"

america's racism row. chance of send her back as president trump renews his attack on a somali born congresswoman. “— his attack on a somali born congresswoman. —— chanting of "send her back". a disastrous start for rory mcilroy at royal portrush — we'll have the latest from the open. and coming up on bbc news. england are struggling to bowl australia out in the first day of a must win test for the women's ashes at taunton. good evening and welcome to the bbc news at six. for to the bbc news at six. the first time the governm own for the first time the government's own tax and spending watchdog has warned that a no—deal brexit could

cause a £30 billion hit to the public finances. from falling house prices to a higher cost of living the office for budget responsibility spells out what it thinks will happen in a no deal scenario. that's something both borisjohnson and jeremy hunt — the men who want to become our next prime minister — have not ruled out. here's our economics editor faisal islam. it is the first time that the government's independent experts on tax and spend, the office for budgetary responsibility, have assessed what happens to the treasury tax billions and to public spending too if the uk leaves the european union without a deal. there is huge uncertainty, there is no knowing in advance exactly who will be right, the chance is everyone is going to be wrong in some respect but the idea there is a big positive coming out of this is a relatively minorto coming out of this is a relatively minor to view. this is a serious and detailed assessment of the impact of no deal. —— minority view. it contains some positive surprises.

under no deal, the government will tax some imports, there will be less interest to pay on the national debt. that gives a boost to the coffers here £11 billion a year. but that's completely outweighed by the projected hit to the tax take on workers, on property and on businesses, and extra welfare spending, total £41 billion. put that all together and you get a projected hit to the finances extra annual borrowing of £30 billion, or put another way, over £550 million a week in the red. farfrom far from the farfrom the promise on far from the promise on the famous red referendum bus of extra billions for public services. rather than extra borrowing. indeed, so much so that the national debt starts to grow again. all of these 0br numbers hinge on a scenario borrowed from the international monetary fund. they show a hit to the economy,

recession, and then a slow recovery. and within that by next year fall in the value of the pound versus the euro by 10%, house prices by 8% and prices rising faster than wages. a real terms wage cut again. so is this all doom and gloom? the numbers don't take into account future trade deals, one boris johnson don't take into account future trade deals, one borisjohnson supporter said the numbers were rubbish in, rubbish out, but they could actually be worse. the government is doing these test runs of parking trucks at a kent airfield. the 0br assumes there will only be minimal disruption from new customs procedures at dover, so it and the chancellor say these numbers aren't even the worst—case scenario. this assessment comes at a time when the economy is already slowing, at least partly because of businesses' no deal preparations. the question for the incoming administration of mr johnson or mr hunt which is due in

days, is whether they believe in independent advice, whether they believe in their own experts or not. this report takes the extreme pessimism of other economists and extreme optimism of some politicians and the cost of no deal and it pretty much splits the difference. and even then, it's not a pretty sight. faisal islam, bbc news. whether or not britain gets a brexit deal will depend on negotiations between the eu and our new prime minister. for months now, its chief negotiator, michel barnier, has been saying that theresa may's agreement — which has been rejected by parliament — is the only way forward. speaking to bbc panorama recently, mr barnier said britain would have to face the consequences if it left without a deal. nick robinson reports. next week, our new prime minister will take the stage and face the cameras outside no 10. they'll immediately face an old crisis, the brexit crisis that forced theresa may out of power.

the country are still divided. the country is still divided. parliament still deadlocked. the eu still making it clear that they won't budge. in his first british broadcast interview, michel barnier warns that the 600—page divorce deal he negotiated with her isn't going to change. we have put into the document with the uk, not against the uk, with the uk, the legal answers to each and every point of uncertainty created by brexit. and if we just left, if we just tore up the membership card? the uk will have to face the consequences. did you think ever they might choose a no deal? no. did theresa may, as prime minister, ever say directly to you, or her ministers, "we may go for no deal"? no, i never listened to such a sentence, never. never threatened it? never. the man who many see as the most

powerful in brussels is martin selmayr, right—hand man to the president of the european commission. he also doesn't take talk of a no—deal brexit at all seriously. do you think britain was prepared for no deal? no. you seem very certain. i'm very certain. how so? we have seen what has been prepared on our side of the border for a hard brexit. we don't see the same level of preparation on the other side of the border. after brexit, the irish border will be the border between the eu on one side and the uk on the other. tonight's panorama reveals that theresa may was told by community leaders in northern ireland that they no—deal was told by community leaders in northern ireland that a no—deal brexit could lead to the break—up of the uk. the attitudes that they were seeing in their communities and what they felt was a sort of growing support for a change in the sort of status of northern ireland, which they felt would be hugely

accelerated if the uk left without a deal. a no—deal brexit could link to irish unity? yes. that made a profound impression on the prime minister. eu leaders are still waiting to hear what sort of brexit deal britain will accept. some in brussels are scathing about what they've witnessed these last three years. i thought, my god, they haven't got a plan, they haven't got a plan. that was really shocking, frankly, because then the damage, if you don't have a plan, and, you know, we see it, time's running out, you don't have a plan, you know, it's like lance corporaljones, you know, "don't panic, don't panic!" running around like idiots. theresa may has, at times, found herself isolated and lonely at eu summits. the word coming from brussels to her successor is, "don't assume it's going to get any easier." nick robinson, bbc news.

you can see more on that in tonight's panorama, britain's brexit crisis at 9pm on bbc one. so, how likely is a no—deal brexit? well today mps backed a bid to stop a new prime minister suspending parliament in order to force through a no—deal brexit. 0ur political editor laura kuenssberg is in westminster — laura, these parliamentary manoeuvres get quite complex, but basically, does it mean that a no deal is now less likely? probably a bit less likely and a bit harder if the next prime minister, whether it's boris johnson orjeremy the next prime minister, whether it's borisjohnson orjeremy hunt, actually wants to do that. remember, this all matters because both men who are vying for the keys to no 10 say if they can't get a new and improved deal with the eu then they would be willing to take us out of the european union before all of those formal arrangements about how that would work are put into place. but only borisjohnson considers it

a possibility to shut up this place, to close the doors of parliament to stop mps trying to prevent him doing that. and what mps today said was that. and what mps today said was that it should be as hard as possible. they are trying to exclude the idea that they would be sidelined and that a hypothetical borisjohnson premiership sidelined and that a hypothetical boris johnson premiership could sidelined and that a hypothetical borisjohnson premiership could lead us borisjohnson premiership could lead us out by getting round the green benches here by closing the doors to parliament. it doesn't, though, make us are parliament. it doesn't, though, make us are leaving without a deal com pletely us are leaving without a deal completely impossible, nor does it change the law to make it impossible for this place to be shut down for that to happen. but what it does show without question is whatever manoeuvres the next prime minister might try to take us out without a deal, they might be facing an almost brick wall of resistance in this place. it took a couple of years for theresa may to find herself in a stand—off between the executive and mps here who were railing against the ideas she put forward. whoever

moves into no 10 next week might find that happens within weeks. laura, thank you. hashem abedi, the younger brother of the manchester arena bomber, has appeared in court charged with murdering 22 people in the attack two years ago. he was extradited from libya yesterday. the prosecution allege abedi made detonator tubes for the bomb and bought chemicals that were used in the explosives. from westminster magistrates' court, daniel sandford sent this report. flown back from libya yesterday, this morning brought to his first court appearance in an armoured police van. hashem abedi back in britain for the first time since the manchester arena bombing. in the dock he confirmed his name and his british citizenship, and then listened as the names of all 22 people he's accused of murdering were read out. he's also accused of attempted murder and conspiracy to cause an explosion. his older brother salman abedi detonated the bomb.

hashem abedi's accused of helping him, of buying the car where bomb parts were stored, purchasing two key chemicals used to make the explosive, and manufacturing the detonator tubes. his lawyer said he denied any involvement and was happy to come back to clear his name. he said he'd been held in solitary confinement for two years and had been tortured. bringing him back from war—torn libya has not been easy. it's been a long and difficult negotiation, and there was even a hitch yesterday when the private jet that was to fly him here developed a fault when travelling from malta to tripoli. the hearing lasted just 11 minutes and then he was driven out again. hashem abedi has now been taken away to prison, where he'll remain until a court appearance at oxford crown court on monday, when he'll appear by videolink for a bail hearing. daniel sandford, bbc news, at westminster magistrates' court. the latest official figures show

that the proportion of crimes solved by police in england and wales has fallen to the lowest level recorded. according to the home office, fewer than 8% of offences resulted in a charge or a court summons. and recorded crimes involving a knife or sharp object rose 8% — that too is the highest on record. our special correspondent lucy manning reports. get on the ground! get on the ground now! guns drawn, dramatic arrest by west midlands police. the man who had been spotted carrying a gun which was later found hidden had been spotted carrying a gun which was laterfound hidden behind the dustbin. get on the floor! get on the floor! get on the floor! his friend was also chased down. have you got any weapons on you?l friend was also chased down. have you got any weapons on you? a large knife found on him, they were jailed this week, but with knife and gun crime rising it's getting hard done it harder to stop. dawn lewis knows the pain of knife crime. her husband

giovanni was repeatedly stabbed and killed two years ago. this person that took my husband's life took mine with it. i will never get over his death ever. i haven't put him to rest yet, his ashes are with me. his death ever. i haven't put him to rest yet, his ashes are with mem was alleged he was killed in connection to drugs and his family deny that. they want more action to deal with knives. i feel the government are not concentrating on knife crime, or any crime, serious crime, ifeel knife crime, or any crime, serious crime, i feel that they are more interested in brexit. stop and search, more police, tougher sentences, stop slapping people on the wrist for having a knife. if you've got a knife, why have you got a knife? in the year up until march, more than 43,000 crimes involved a knife or a sharp object, that's up more than 3000, robbery was also up 1196,

more than 3000, robbery was also up 11%, and the proportion of crimes the police are solving is down, now at just the police are solving is down, now atjust 7.8 the police are solving is down, now at just 7.8 offences the police are solving is down, now atjust 7.8 offences which end up with somebody being charged or summonsed. 0n with somebody being charged or summonsed. on an estate in sutton coldfield, cctv shows a hooded youth trying to break in. the residents have hired private security, feeling they just can't have hired private security, feeling theyjust can't rely on the police. police resources are stretched. trolling estates is a low priority. we need to put more money into policing. there is frustration here that so few crimes are being solved. no one should be surprised by that reduction when you have 20,000 less police officers. the officers who remain and staff who remain have a bigger workload, it takes longer to get crimes processed through the whole criminaljustice get crimes processed through the whole criminal justice system. get crimes processed through the whole criminaljustice system. we are investing more in the police this year than last year as a country, £1 billion more going into out country, £1 billion more going into our police system, and we have made specific money available for serious violence. politicians are now promising there will be more police.

lucy manning, bbc news. the time has just gone 6:15pm. 0ur lucy manning, bbc news. the time has just gone 6:15pm. our top story this evening. and no—deal brexit could trigger a 30 billion deficit to the economy. and i am here at port rush when it's been a nightmare start for rory mcilroy in the open championship. coming up on sportsday on bbc news: it went down to the wire but an exciting sprint finish saw british rider simon yates win stage 12 of the tour de france. headteachers are warning of a mental health crisis in primary education — that's children under 11. 46 health trusts across the uk replied to a freedom of information request from the bbc. it indicates the number of mental

health referrals by primary schools have risen by nearly 50% over the last three years to just over 31,500 children. our special correspondent ed thomas has more. i've had things thrown at me — chairs, tables, books. self—harming on a regular basis. children say they don't want to be here anymore. you talk to the teachers, we all feel like this. it's a massive crisis in our schools. meet headteacherjoanne. this is the next little room we've made. she's invited the bbc inside her classrooms... little break—out spaces... ..to see a school overcapacity... that's just going. ..facing growing mental health problems in one of the most deprived parts of the uk. we've got children who don't have their own bed, they're share with their parents or taking in turns to sleep on the sofa.

you speak to the parents, they love their children so much but they've got to weigh up — what do i do? buy a new bed or buy food for my child? at st paul's in bury, the school day begins a little differently. i'll go and check on him and see if he's behaving this morning. it's what the teachers call the sweeper. nice and quick cos the bell's gone. senior staff looking for children who are anxious and upset. sometimes children come in looking unhappy or they shout and scream. good morning! you all right, jayden? those they've missed are then rounded up in the classrooms. good morning, is there anyone who needs a trip to the haven? typically, 20 children are collected and sent to a place the school calls the haven. they miss the start of lessons. the teachers say they need the space to calm the children. we see children coming in from home situations that you can't even imagine. are your english jotters still on your table? hazel‘s been teaching

for more than ten years. she says she's seeing more and more children in crisis. they've been pinching themselves or scratching their arms... hurting themselves? yeah, hurting themselves. repeatedly? yeah. it's heartbreaking when you see that. it kind of says that they can't express what's the matter. lauren teaches seven and eight—year—olds. today, she's worried about this child. he's becoming increasingly withdrawn. the low self—esteem is the beginning of depression so i think, if it doesn't get tackled now, it can lead to further things. and lauren is also facing more extreme cases. some children that choose to not eat. body issues? body issues, yeah. at the age of? seven. "i want to kill myself" gets thrown a lot. it gets around a lot. how many children have actually said that to you? well, last month about three. for serious cases, schools can refer to mental health services. we've had children as young as four need it.

four years of age? four. the bbc has learned referrals to child mental health services from uk primary schools for pupils aged 11 and under have risen by nearly 50% in three years. when you ask for that help from other agencies or people who you feel have got more expertise, it takes too long to get to you. you need it tomorrow. you need it today, and it can be months...or never. we've also learned of a pupil from a different school who spent nearly three years on a waiting list, and of another who was rejected for treatment nine times. during our time here, we met young teachers determined to give children the best education, but anxious about dealing with serious and complex modern problems. as a teacher, you want to make everything all right but you can't. are you equipped to do that? no, we're not equipped to do that. are you trained to do this? no, i'm not trained to do...

i'm not trained to deal with any of that, no. i'm trained to teach the children. the government told us it was determined to improve mental health services, and, by 2024, 345,000 more children and young people will have access to specialist care. ed thomas, bbc news, bury. if you or someone you know has been affected by mental health issues, there are details of organisations who offer help on the bbc‘s actionline website. a careworker who killed 13—year—old lucy mchugh to stop her exposing him as a sex abuser has been found guilty of her rape and murder. the southampton schoolgirl‘s family had taken nicholson in as a lodger. police described him as a cold and calculating paedophile. he'll be sentenced at a later date. in cyprus, 12 israeli youths arrested on suspicion of raping a british tourist have been remanded in custody by a court.

the suspects, who have not been charged, are aged between 15 and 18 and are alleged to have attacked the woman in a hotel room in the holiday resort of ayia napa. 0ur correpondent tom bateman is in ayia napa. what details can you give us?m what details can you give us? it was in the early hours of yesterday morning that a 19—year—old british woman contacted the police here in ayia napa and said she had been raped in her hotel room up the road from where we are standing now. the police began an investigation, later in the day they arrested 12 teenagers, all israeli nationals aged between 15 and 18. this afternoon they appeared in court, they were brought in in pairs, handcuffed to each other. some of their parents had flown over from israel and tried to embrace them as they were brought into the court room, shouting messages of support.

they have been remanded in custody for eight days, no charges have been brought. the uk foreign office says it is supporting a 19—year—old british woman who was assaulted and they are in touch with police here. thank you very much. supporters of president trump have chanted "send her back" at a rally in north carolina as he criticised ilhan 0mar, a somalian—born democratic congresswoman. she is one of four woman in the us house of representatives known as the squad, who have openly challenged president trump's rhetoric. with more, here's our north america correspondent nick bryant. this is a rally that will be talked about for decades to come. after the racism of donald trump's original attacks on the four congresswomen of colour came the kind of racial demagoguery we've not heard or seen from a modern day american president. first, he singled them out by name. representative ilhan 0mar. booing representative alexandria 0casio—cortez.

booing "go back to where you came from," was his message to the congresswomen earlier this week, three of whom were born in the usa. his latest advice, "if you don't like america, then leave." tonight i have a suggestion for the hate—filled extremists who are constantly trying to tear our country down. they never have anything good to say. that's why i say, hey, if they don't like it, let them leave, let them leave. "send her back" shouted the crowd. crowd chant "send her back" it sounded like the "lock her up" mantra of the 2016 campaign. after hillary clinton, four new female hate figures. everything is so freaking touchy with all of them. they have no sense of humour. they have no common sense. i'm sorry, just a bag of idiots. young, newly elected, on the left of their party, the

congresswomen call themselves the squad. ilhan omar, a muslim born in somalia, has been condemned for remarks about israel her critics claim are anti—semitic and for saying of september the 11th, some people did something. alexandria ocasio—cortez calls herself a democratic socialist. ilhan omar responded with a verse from the african—american poet, maya angelo. poetry last night but very un—poetic language today. omar has just called the president a fascist, and a real change in tone from donald trump as well. while we have been on air he has been speaking in the oval office disavowing the send her home chant. he said he disagreed with it and felt badly about it and was not

happy with it. worth pointing out he did not try to silence the crowd last night. is this acknowledgement from donald trump you may have gone too far? nick, thank you very much. for the first time in 68 years, the annual open golf championship is being held in northern ireland. play got under way today at royal portrush with the world's best golfers, including rory mcilroy and tiger woods in action. but home favourite mcilroy got off to a bad start, as our sports correspondent andy swiss reports. they had waited 68 years for this, the open finally back in northern ireland, but if for the fans it was a day to remember... for their hero it was one to forget. from his very first swing, rory mcilroy‘s hopes went awry. that went out of bounds and calamity followed calamity. he took eight shots for the opening hole and after a brief recovery his

round unravelled. it has been quite a day so far... it was at times almost painful to watch. at eight over par, he is surely out of it but philosophical. i'm disappointed but at the end of the day i am still the same person, i will go back, see my family and friends and hopefully they don't think any less of me after a performance like that today. i will dust myself off, come back out tomorrow and try to do better. he wasn't the only one to struggle, tiger woods also got off to a tricky start although others fared better. koepka's caddy happens to be from portrush, local knowledge proving handy. no doubt about shot of the day so far, hole number 13, lucky for some, as argentina's emiliano

creo took the direct approach. an early moment of open magic. the latest i can tell you is that genre arm of spain leads the way by one shot. tiger woods is still struggling, six over par. rory mcilroy is currently down in 150th place, fair to say he needs a sporting miracle. andy, thank you very much. time for a look at the weather. here's alina jenkins. and it was all wrapped up there. yes, we have had heavy rain and spells of sunshine, and also heavy rain this morning around south—east england which cleared to leave spells of sunshine but we still have showers in the forecast this evening, particularly across scotland, northern ireland and northern england. overnight becoming confined to north—west scotland.

more rain arrives into south—west england and wales later tonight. a muqqy england and wales later tonight. a muggy feel, particularly in the centre of town. we have this frontal system pushing in from off the atla ntic system pushing in from off the atlantic which will bring persistent and heavy rain, initially across south—west england and parts of wales. this band of rain will slowly work north and eastward through the morning, some of that rain still heavy but turning showery with time. behind it some spells of sunshine, and for northern scotland, but the rain will be marching northwards through the day. temperatures feeling cooler tomorrow compared with today, up to 21 celsius typically, with more rain arriving into southern counties through tomorrow evening. meanwhile heavy rain continuing across parts of northern england and into central and southern scotland. one way or another we will see rain tomorrow for the open. for northern ireland it should be a mainly dry day on saturday, the same goes for western

scotla nd saturday, the same goes for western scotland as well, but of course a large swathe of northern england and wales will get potentially heavy and thundery showers. temperatures up slightly to 23 celsius. by the time we get to sunday things looking mainly dry and increasingly warm next week. thank you very much. that's all from the bbc news at six. on bbc one we nowjoin the bbc‘s news teams where you are. goodbye.