this is business live from bbc news i'm sally bundock live in westminster in a few hours we'll find out who the next leader of the uk's governing conservative party will be and here in the studio i'm ben thompson and that's our top story on tuesday 23 july after weeks of policy promises, debates and interviews we'll find out shortly whether boris johnson orjeremy hunt will be the uk's next prime minister. we'll assess the implications for the uk, the pound and post brexit trade deals

also in the programme india could be about to deal a major blow to crypto currencies by banning digital tokens such as bitcoin, ripple, and ethereum. and it's the firm behind some of the biggest glossiest magazines in the world, but how is conde nast, the publisher of vogue, go, vanity fair adapting to the digital world? we'll get the inside track on making print pay. hello and welcome to business live. a special edition of the programme coming to you live from westminster. it's a big day here in the uk for the country's politics, because in a few hours from now, the governing conservative party will have a new leader. and i have to say, it's getting very

warm as well! markets and investors will be keeping a close eye on developments, to see how the change of leadership will effect post—brexit trade negotiations. so far, the uk has agreed "continuity" deals with 12 countries and regions. these include a group of countries from south america and the caribbean, and agreements with norway and switzerland as well as others. the total value of these deals is around $94bn. injune, the uk signed an outline free trade agreement with south korea, which would look to maintain the current deal. trade between the two countries is currently around $iobn a year. mutual recognition agreements have also been reached with the united states, australia and new zealand. these deals are not free trade agreements, but similar to current deals these countries have with the european union. last year trade between the us

and uk hit a record high of $127bn. however some countries have decided to hedge their bets until they see how brexit turns out. they include india and canada, with both refusing to sign any fresh agreements for the time being. stephanie rickard, professor of political science at the london school of economics a warm welcome to you. let's start with the no deal brexit scenario, if that's the outcome on the 31st of october, what does that mean for businesses in the ist of november? it's very likely if we leave with no deal, businesses in the united kingdom will see tariffs when they send their goods to europe so that means british made products will be more expensive in europe, it will hurt their competitiveness and research shows that is bad for the british economy. research from the lsc shows that will reduce by a 9%,

every household in the united kingdom will be £1700 worse off every year. for those companies who have two important bits and bobs, components, ingredients for the things that they are making, that's also the potential for new tariffs, isn't it? it is but the british government has suggested they will unilaterally cut tariffs on goods coming into the united kingdom to zero. it's good in one sense, keeps the price of those goods down, keeps the price of those goods down, keeps the price of consumer goods like food down but it's potentially dangerous for businesses because they are going to face increased competition from foreign goods so we may see british companies coming under increased pressure, they may have to reduce their workforce and we may ultimately see job losses. have to reduce their workforce and we may ultimately see job lossesm terms of the agreements we already have in place, we've listed the work done behind the scenes between the uk government and other countries around the world but no formal negotiations, no formal trade deals can actually be broken —— brokered until we leave the eu? that's one of

the conditions of being part of the single currency union, the common customs union but what we have seen britain do is go to countries like canada and say, can you give us the same terms that you gave us when we we re same terms that you gave us when we were an eu member country? canada has said no, wait, why would we do that when you are offering us an even better deal of zero tariffs? britain has weakened its ring negotiation position by suggesting if we leave with a no deal, they will cut their own tariffs to zero. depending on who gets the job today and who is appointed prime minister tomorrow will mean how this whole situation plays out. if it is boris johnson, the most likely winner, the frontrunner, do we think that means the uk will pin a lot more to the united states in terms of trade?” think that's possible but even if they pivot towards the united states, it's still difficult. the united states is a much bigger economy, it gives them a lot more bargaining power at the negotiating

table and again, the uk has weakened its bargaining position threatening a its bargaining position threatening 3110 its bargaining position threatening a no deal. that's like saying give mea a no deal. that's like saying give me a trade deal or i will shoot myself in the foot and they have weakened their bargaining position by suggesting they will unilaterally cut tariffs to zero. even if we see a pivot to the united states that's not necessarily a solution to the difficult position the next prime minister will find themselves in. thank you so much for sharing your expertise with us. in many ways, when it comes to trade, it's all to play for it still and there is a lot of uncertainty and questions ahead for those who are running businesses. back to you in the studio. sally, for now, thank you. we will be right back with sally in westminster just a little we will be right back with sally in westminsterjust a little later. lots more from there. let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news switzerland's biggest bank, ubs, says it has beaten forecasts with a $1.1; billion net profit for its second quarter of this year. the bank says the rise is due to better—than—expected gains

in corporate banking and a rise in its advisory business. a major power cut has caused widespread disruption across venezuela. the metro system is suspended in the capital, caracas, while homes and businesses have been left without in electricity in all 23 venezuelan states. the information minister says the blackout had been caused by sabotage against the main hydroelectric dam. huawei's us research arm has reportedly started to lay off workers. according to reuters, at least half a dozen staff with boxes were seen leaving the company's silicon valley campus on monday. the job cuts come about two months after the trump administration put huawei on a trade blacklist, making it illegal for its american subsidiary to transfer sensitive technologies to its parent. i'll have more from here in westminster a little later, and we'll take you live to brussels

and our correspondent there on what could prove to be a crucial day for the uk's relationship with the eu... but before that, a big blow to crypto currencies this morning — as india says its to ban the the digital payment system as it vies for global acceptance. a government panel has recommended banning digital tokens such as bitcoin, ripple, and ethereum. nitin srivastava joins us now from delhi. just explain this story for us. fledgling currencies, dry to get global acceptance, fledgling currencies, dry to get globalacceptance, india fledgling currencies, dry to get global acceptance, india says no thank you. yes, there is an historical backdrop to this, it started around 2016—17, reports of big scale money laundering by digital currencies in india and the indian government decided to formally ban to review the whole idea and the increasing usage of digital currencies in india. the

government saying it should be banned and there should be imprisonment and fines for people who indulge in that, and it's been recommended the government should have a proper digital currency medium via the country ‘s premier bank which is a government owned and government—controlled bank. the government—controlled bank. the government has all along been saying in india it has led to a rise in ponzi schemes which gives people high returns on a short term but it's not a very futuristic kind of an idea. that's the whole idea of this but it's a panel recommendation to the government and the government of course has to take a final decision on it, it has not been taken as yet. i know you are going to stay right across that for us. for now, thank you, such an important development and we will stay right across that for you. but let's show you the numbers on the market, could be a volatile session, no prizes for guessing why. the current state of play. this is how asia closed, and the us. let's show

you brent crude. oil prices and oil stocks driving the rebound yesterday on us markets but tech, particularly, the nasdaq up three quarters of 1%. it's going to be a big week for the tech sector, of course tensions in the gulf helping a bounce in the oil price after big losses last week. remember, if the outcome of the conservative party leadership race that sally has been telling us about, a new prime minister for the telling us about, a new prime ministerfor the uk telling us about, a new prime minister for the uk that could move the numbers certainly as far as the currencies are concerned. keep an eye on for the pound is doing. we should also probably expect some further resignations not least from the uk chancellor, the finance minister philip hammond as well as the justice secretary, minister philip hammond as well as thejustice secretary, both making it clear they will step down because they're not prepared to sign up to a brexit policy run by borisjohnson. remember we will get the outcome of that vote at 11:30am. we talk about some of the implications for markets and investors in a moment.

we'll look at the implications for markets and investors in a moment, but first let's head to the us — and michelle fleury has the details of the trading day head. wall street earnings blizzard continues with visa, coca—cola and instagram competitor snap and toymaker hasbro among those posting the results. profits at united technologies are expected to get a lift from strong demand for aircraft parts. it is the company's planned merger with raytheon that investors are most anxious to hear about. lockheed martin is expected to return a higher second—quarter return helped by an increase in sales of the f 35 jets. will management say anything about the financial implications of the pentagon's decision to remove turkish defence firms as part suppliers for the f 35 programme? and quarterly earnings from harley—davidson should reflect its ongoing struggle with higher tariff costs as well as the continued slide in sales here in the united states.

as always, michelle there for us in new york. with us is louise dudley, portfolio manager, hermes global equities let's start with sterling, we find out who the next uk prime minister is. not a huge difference between borisjohnson is. not a huge difference between boris johnson and jeremy hunt. is. not a huge difference between borisjohnson and jeremy hunt. let's talk about what markets will expect to happen today. as you mentioned to a certain extent a lot of it has been priced in, the expectation is that boris will come in and so therefore people have priced in almost a 70% hard brexit at the moment. so we have almost a 70% hard brexit at the moment. so we have seen almost a 70% hard brexit at the moment. so we have seen a almost a 70% hard brexit at the moment. so we have seen a very weak poundin moment. so we have seen a very weak pound in the last couple of weeks. louise, explain to our reviewers why a weak pound is good news for the ftse 100 a weak pound is good news for the ftse100 with so many of those companies listed on the main market, trading in dollars? explain that relationship. certainly, they can't sell their products to customers outside the uk for a better price.

contrary to that, obviously, we see the negative impact for the companies who want to buy in products from outside. the other thing it means in terms of positive news is that for instance, it can lead to a spirit and activity because some of the uk companies look attractive within the global market. and let's talk about banks because i touched on it in the little roundup, ubs coming in much better—than—expected, its earnings season well underway and we were talking earlier about the expectation pretty high but managing to beat some and that's giving a bit of confidence back to investors? sure. at the start of the year and as we've come through the year, expectations have become more muted in terms of the growth however, this earnings season, but tends to happen is investors focus on the real good fundamental companies and certainly we've seen some strong numbers coming from the banks in the last week. just quickly a word on oil,

looking at the price on screen right now, it's been pretty volatile the tensions in the gulf. where is it heading because there seems to be no real solution? we are in a weird holding pattern as far as the gulf is concerned. yes, that's true, and it will continue to be volatile going forward and that's our expectation. trump is also involved as well as opec who controls the underlying supply and overall we are seeing demand coming down but that's very much a longer term trend and opec really will control in the shorter term the volatility as well as the middle east tensions as well. fascinating, isn't it. i know we will talk about this a bit more but for now, louise, thank you. still to come when did you last buy an actual, physical magazine? print sales have in decline in the digital age but we'll be talking to the boss of conde nast britain who believes glossy magazines like vogue and vanity fair are here to stay. you're with business live from bbc news.

travel plans for thousands of british airways customers have come under threat this summer as the airline's pilots have voted for strike action. nearly 4,000 members of flight crew who belong to the british airline pilots' association — balpa — have voted strongly in favour of industrial action in a dispute over pay. simon calder, travel editor of the independentjoins us now. simon, a very good morning to you as always. what a time to be calling this strike action. what impact could it have? lots of people from across britain and across the world have been in touch with me over saying help, and booked to travel in august, what can i do? my advice to every single one of them is don't do anything yet. in just under two hours from now, two miles away from here at the high court in central

london, british airways is going to be challenging the unions strike ballot. as you say, they voted overwhelmingly, 93% in favour, 90% turnout, of strike action. as is now traditional in these cases british airways challenges in the high court, the way that the ballot was organised. i can't give any more details yet but local time, 10:30am, british airways will present its case. it's entirely possible if the judge agrees that there were flaws in the ballot, we are back to square one, the union can call another ballot or they can continue with talks which have been going on sporadically with british airways. if you are booked to travel, there's absolutely no certainty at this stage that your flight could be jeopardised. simon, briefly, that was my point, what should passengers do, is it a case of sitting tight? it is, i'm afraid, yes. wait and see what happens in the next few hours, the next few days. it might be the earliest they could call a strike of the cold winter day will be for

travel on the 6th of august, british airways has put in lots of contingency plans in place and gradually, it will emerge if a strike will take place, what your rights are but don't do anything just yet. simon, as always, good to see you, thanks so much. passenger numbers on the rise from heathrow, passenger numbers up 2% in the same period last year. the airports boss telling the bbc as you can see, shaping up to be a strong year, full details on the business pages. your‘re watching business live — our top story is right here — in westminster. a special edition of the programme. where, in just a few hours time, the uk will know who is set

to become its next prime minister. after weeks of debate, policy promises and interviews, will it be borisjohnson orjeremy hunt. we'll get the latest too from brussels — on what could prove to be a decisive day for the future relationship between the uk and the eu. a quick look at how the markets are faring we spoke about what it means for stirling, when we were speaking to louise earlier. the pound buying you a dollar and 2a on the international markets right now. but watch this space, that could change when the outcome of the conservative leadership election becomes clear. now, when was the last time you bought an actual, physical magazine? in this digital age, it may have been a while. print sales have been declining for several years as readers find their content online. in the uk alone, sales

of the top 100 print titles have fallen by 55 percent from 30.8 million to 13.9m between 2000 — which coincides with the real boom in the internet — and 2017. and that also means advertising has more than halved over the decade. but our guest believes magazines are here to stay, and the world needs editing. with me is albert read, who runs conde nast britain — owner of glossy magazines including vogue, vanity fair and go. nice to see you, welcome to the programme. it's really interesting, isn't it? you guys have been around forever, you dominate the market but it's a pretty tough market to be in right now, given the competition that you see from online and digital. how do you that the business? it's a tough market in its entirety but the magazine market is made up of different types of magazines, doing different things, some there to pass the time, some providing information, some as

utilities for readers and art magazines are faring pretty well in the context of the overall market and our circulations are broadly stable, some magazines even going up in circulation like conde nast traveler which you have in front of you. that is the first point of the second point is the world is changing and we need to change with the world. what we talk about in our business is not so much print magazines but about the brand and what can we do with the brand. we've seen actually very strong growth in digital, the websites have grown enormously, we have 15—20,000,000 unique users on our sites every month and the audience that we reach is much, much bigger than it ever has been before. you're suggesting it's not just about this anymore, it's not just about this anymore, it's not just about this anymore, it's not about picking that up, taking it on, reading it on the bus ortrain, taking it on, reading it on the bus or train, it's about everything that goes with it. correct, that still a very large element of it. art magazines are multisensory products, you read them, you feel them, you touch them, smell them, have a value in print but the brand lives above

the print and we have found great success in digital, we are doing more success in digital, we are doing m o re eve nts success in digital, we are doing more events and the three pillars of our business work very well together, print is very much the anchor, a successful print product begets a successful digital product in the events feed into that. we've found this formula which we feel works very well in this new era. as soon as we talk about print going digital, the word table always appears, people talking about whether you put up a people to make people subscribed to be able to access the content. i notice some of your us titles are considering doing that by the end of the year but would you do that in the uk? we have no current plans to do so but we are a lwa ys no current plans to do so but we are always experimenting. the broader aim for us is to get closer to our consumers, build a closer direct to consumers, build a closer direct to consumer relationship and that could come in the form of a payroll for certain brands, it could come in the form of a deeper registration model, deeper understanding of what they wa nt deeper understanding of what they want so we can serve them better in terms of brand your information and

what they behave, what they are looking for. so there's definitely a desire to get closer to them and to observe and to serve a more personalised experience to the readers but against that, we don't wa nt to readers but against that, we don't want to lose the reeds that we have and the advertising that delivers and the advertising that delivers and all sorts of ancillary benefits and all sorts of ancillary benefits and selling tickets to events and selling subscriptions to magazines that we get from a much wider reach of audience. that is the debate, it's all well and good having a subscription of oil companies —— customers but you would assume that will be smaller if i can pick that up will be smaller if i can pick that up on the new stand and fog onto the website and that your internal debate, whether you will do what the new york times or the washington post had done. we take each brand on its own terms, some brands merited like the new yorker in the states has a very strong subscriber payroll base. with more mainstream titles like glamour we were probably not go down that route, at least in the short term. briefly, i love this quote, you're no noted for, you will

be said paper, the longer the chances of the magazine surviving. should i check the quality of the paper? you will find its very good. how does that work, as it about being a luxury item? it's something that denotes quality and ties in with everything we do around quality, creativity, around only being the best in covering the best. albert, really great to see you, thank you, such a packed show but it's really nice to include you today. thank you so much. we believe the luxury of an air—conditioned studio and back here to westminster. it's getting extremely hot, we are all melting, it's not even 9am yet. someone is mowing the lawn, you might be able to see that. let's get more on who will be the next leader of the conservative party — and in all likelihood the uk's next prime minister what is the expectation in brussels? let's go live now to adam flemming who is there for us

adam, if we begin with the most likely winner, most people believe borisjohnson will be confirmed as the tory leader. how will that go down in brussels? which boris johnson will turn up? is it the one at some point in the leadership contest who sounded incredibly hard line and incredibly tough, saying he doesn't fear there being no deal at the end of october, who also wants radical surgery on the brexit deal, taking out the northern irish backstop which is the back—up plan for avoiding a hard border on the island of ireland, if that can't be solved for the future trade relationship? is it the boris johnson that once a standstill transition period of a couple of yea rs transition period of a couple of years and chunk the rest of the withdrawal agreement? is it the borisjohnson has perhaps a bit more pragmatic and prepared to take the bulk of the existing deal, make some changes to the part of the deal that are about the future relationship and the negotiations in the next

phase and he will then try and sell that even though it might not be that even though it might not be that different? they want to know which one will turn up and they also wa nt to which one will turn up and they also want to know when it's going to happen? will he want to get stuck and in brussels pretty soon or could it be next month? of the month after? or the month after? and they might have to wait until october and all of this will happen at the last minute. and he will be the team around him? who will be advising him, shaping his brexit policy and he will be representing the british government around the negotiating table in brussels? both at civil service level and also political level? adam, thanks so much, adam fleming in brussels. that's it from business live today. what will the new spree in three hours time? absolutely. a bbc new special coming up on both channels. have a great day, whatever you are up have a great day, whatever you are up to. from both of us, goodbye.

hello, good morning. it's allabout the temperatures and heat throughout this week, the heatwave well under way. those temperatures likely to date to get up to 35 degrees in the south—east of england, very warm, hot conditions for all of us. what's the reason for the hot weather? a southerly wind coming all the way through africa, up through spain, france, and up into the uk. and there is a bit of mist and low cloud around this morning, that will clear away, lots of sunshine extending to all parts of the uk during this afternoon. temperatures across scotla nd afternoon. temperatures across scotland and northern ireland into the mid 20s, for england and wales, high 20s, 30s, 35 celsius in the south—east of england. with all that heat and humidity through tonight,

we are going to see some thunderstorms. initially, a fine end to the day, lots of sunshine, but it's in the south—west you notice the storms started together and they will spread their way up across wales, the midlands, into northern areas, scotland, frequently —— frequent lightning expected storms, lots of rain fell, a warm and muggy night. temperatures for the first pa rt night. temperatures for the first part of the night way above 20 celsius. these are the minimum temperatures into wednesday morning. quite wet to start off across northern areas on wednesday morning, that ring, the thunderstorms moving their weight northwards, eventually clearing away, there will be a bit of cloud in the north—west, a bit of a fresher day for scotland and northern ireland, north—western parts of england, temperatures round about the low to mid 20s, still up into the 30s the south—east. during thursday, the wind changing direction slightly to a south easterly, drawing in hot airfrom the low countries, through germany

and france. on thursday, expect it to be hotter, there could be showers developing across northern and western parts, a bit of cloud here, then which are still 22—27dc in scotla nd then which are still 22—27dc in scotland and northern ireland, widely for england and wales, high 20s into the low 30s. perhaps even into the high 30s in the south—east. 37 celsius possible and that would break the july record 37 celsius possible and that would break thejuly record for 37 celsius possible and that would break the july record for the 37 celsius possible and that would break thejuly record for the uk. that was recorded in 2015. friday will turn much fresher for that was recorded in 2015. friday will turn much fresherfor all that was recorded in 2015. friday will turn much fresher for all of us, temperatures dropping down quite significantly in the south—east. still some sunshine, on the face of it, the temperatures are still not bad for the time of year. goodbye.

good morning, you are watching bbc news. injust a matter of hours, the uk will have a new prime minister. either borisjohnson orjeremy hunt will be announced winner of the conservative leadership election. entering his campaign headquarters this morning — the frontrunner boris johnson was upbeat reporter: you've waited your whole life for this moment. how are you feeling, mrjohnson? have you got your top team in place? and this from a more cautious jeremy hunt this morning. who knows what's going to happen? reporter: if you do not win, will you serve any borisjohnson cabinet? all to be seen, just waiting for the