correspondents who write under the dateline ‘london' for the folks back home. last week, boris johnson was appointed prime minister and made himself minister for the union, but might he be a letter day lord north, who won power but lost britain's american colonies. in hong kong, eight successive weekends of protest turned violent last sunday. is china preparing a crackdown? with me this weekend are journalist henry chu from variety international, anyes poirier who writes for the french magazine, marianne. maria margaronis, who writes for the nation, and has presented documentaries about the greek crisis and migration polly toynbee, a long—standing columnist with the british newspaper the guardian. boris johnson's championship of the union of england, scotland, wales and northern ireland — or "the awesome foursome" to use thejohnson argo — is looking a little bruised. at the end of a week where the uk's new prime minister carried out visits around the uk, brexit contributed to some testy exchanges — on the phone

with ireland's prime minister, in person with sinn fein as he urged them to restore power—sharing in northern ireland with the scottish leader of his own party in edinburgh, and finally with the voters, when the tories lost a by—election in the welsh seat of brecon and radnorshire. much of this is explained by the growing prospect that the uk will leave the european union at the end of october without a deal on departure and without even the start of negotiations on a future trading relationship. mrjohnson has described the prospect as "vanishingly small", yet at the same time his chancellor announced an additional £2.1 billion for no deal planning. mixed messages, to what purpose? mixed messages, to what purpose7m has been the most extraordinary opening week of any prime minister in living memory, disasters from every direction. first of all the pound fell to percent and then fell

again. the bank of england came out and said there was a high chance we would be in recession next year and thatis would be in recession next year and that is without a no—deal brexit. his idea of bluffing the europeans of saying we are going to have a no deal, they have eyeballed him and said there is no chance of us moving at all. you now looks as if he has himself entered what may be a no deal, nobody knows whether he meant it or not but looks as if he has an meanwhile he has had a by—election of great significance because you must a majority of 8000 but more than that the brexit party which threatens to take significant votes of the tory party right—wing did not do brilliantly well but enough to deny them the seat. he has to decide is he going to make a pact with them to make sure they do not do that on over the country. and move even further to the light then he was a

lot more to the more moderate liberal democrats. he is in trouble. i was going to ask at this point about why boris johnson has i was going to ask at this point about why borisjohnson has packed off one of his shoppers who do the ha rd graft effort off one of his shoppers who do the hard graft effort is no chance of movement and brussels,. sensi is not going to he has to send somebody, not at that means much but it is interesting he was invited to berlin and paris and donald tusk sent a short letter saying looking followed to discussing in detail, he has no intention to go to europe. he says he is calling their bluff but europe was never bluffing in the first place. he has been from the very first hours of his new government

suddenly realise in campaign and it looks as if we are heading to a very early election because he wants to come off the brexit party, he is not going to kill it off but has all the chances are before the 315t of october and appealing as gung ho as he is at the moment and also he has a majority of one. it is all posture, he is a poser as well as an impostor. all of his travel has been to the four corners of the uk which makes sense for the prime minister but at this when you are in campaign mode that you visit these places throwing around promises of money as though it was growing on trees and making promises that you think will then actually shore up the electorate in your favour. it is not about going to the eu you would in these last 100 days to secure a

deal, for face—saving reasons he has to send someone. but right now all of his energies are about shoring up support in this country, not across the channel. if we do have an early election then what does the opposition do and what happened in wales was there was a pact between the liberal democrats, plaid cymru and the greens do not to stand can it's against each other and this is how the liberal democrats won the seat. thejudge questioned how the liberal democrats won the seat. the judge questioned as how the liberal democrats won the seat. thejudge questioned as is labour going to be involved in any such arrangements which would be the only chance of having some certain stop to this cliff we are about to dive off. you can do that at a local level but the forces are always different and i really do not see jeremy corbyn... different and i really do not see jeremy corbyn. .. you can and you should, they may be mangled if they do notjochen jeremy corbyn

should, they may be mangled if they do notjochenjeremy corbyn and the very small can around him they are much more concerned about hanging on to the labour party for the far left the fate of the labour party in an election. i think we will find is an enormous amount of tactical voting, there result was a lot anyway but with the great divide now in this country being stronger, all the posters are finding between brexit and remain as a much stronger divide than between left and right. there is an election argument on those grounds before brexit because this is the great motivator. absolutely and there will be big tactical voting and if labour were sensible they would make a pact so that it worked in both parties interest. otherwise i think they will have a cascade of votes to the liberal democrats because so many labour voters know ca re democrats because so many labour voters know care more about brexit. i think the way brexit has been this

great scrambler of party loyalties amongst regular voters, not amongst mps has been underestimated. we see how polls often actually do not truly measure what is going to happen in the electorate because this issue has become such a shibboleth that this issue has become such a shibboleth that it is hard to predict what will happen. people say politics is downstream of culture but the brexit we are now heading for as so clearly destructive, not including for lead voters in traditional labour constituencies, and yet this thing still holds and where is the person who is going to come out and say, look this is what you are going to get, this is what you are going to get, this is what you are going to get, this is what you are in fact voting for, think. you are not getting it. explain it. the expeditions have been there from the beginning. the facts are dire as

had been presented in this first week to boris johnson had been presented in this first week to borisjohnson about had been presented in this first week to boris johnson about the disasters that are going to happen. 90% of our sheep farming go to the eu in particular to france, the sheep will be slaughtered almost on the day after because you cannot afford to feed them. the government has talked about buying up... they can buy up the sheep and we are all going to eat. i think government wa nt to going to eat. i think government want to pay indefinitely for 90% of our sheep farming which is bad, money we should be using for hospitals and schools, they want to keep sheep farmers at the relatively low standard of living that is now, all that money just low standard of living that is now, all that moneyjust for low standard of living that is now, all that money just for that low standard of living that is now, all that moneyjust for that madness but the point is brexit is not about reality, it's about a dream and an idea and inspiration. it what makes people wake up? what does it take?

the dam is breaking now politically. november one might be the day.- thatis november one might be the day.- that is a snap election i think the eu will grant that is a snap election i think the eu willgrantan that is a snap election i think the eu will grant an extension for the new government which might be the old government. it would give them a perfectly legitimate reason to ask foran perfectly legitimate reason to ask for an extension without saying actually needs to delay, and election to see what the pupils verdict as. and if the whole thing collapsed then we also know already he was going to be blamed which is the eu. can i go back to the semantics of the last week, is extraordinary how europe has been portrayed by the new government. we have boris johnson portrayed by the new government. we have borisjohnson pots father saying we are ready to cash out, we are not afraid, remember 1940.

nobody was prepared then. we were not prepared and how is dunkirk evacuation victory? we have this humiliation,. it is much worse than that because the idea we have the dunkirk spirit, we would differ being invaded by foreigners or aliens from mars, we would be brave but what is going to happen is we will have brought about ourselves and acute shortage of medicines, panic and supermarkets, people furious and not be able to get petrol and for those things we are very intolerant. there were almost riots rank at or if i chicken run out of chicken. we are not resilient when it comes to minor inconvenience. whitehall insiders will remind you of the few protests which unnerved the labour government and the turn—of—the—century and there was great panic that was a

fuel protest which briefly caused shortages of petrol. this will have been all for nothing for no good reason. i was interested in something you said about culture and identity which brings us to the question of virginia specifically. —— the union specifically. tony blair was advised during the good friday negotiations which had an end to the sectarian armed violence, but there are still extreme is to use violence but it is a small number and certainly not the day—to—day experience that had been for 40 yea rs before. experience that had been for 40 years before. he said that the clever thing about the good friday agreement was that it suspended the issue of identity, you could be irish or british or northern irish and favour of all these things and you could have them simultaneously on the one geographical space in ireland. all that was at risk, is that the big challenge to the union

110w that the big challenge to the union now brexit that it forces people to make choices and those binary choices create conflict? it is a very frightening choice in northern ireland because the politics are very different to the rest of great britain. it. it. 0ld hostilities and we have seen how near the edge it is. all the sinn fein mps who do not ta ke is. all the sinn fein mps who do not take their seats are on the border and if there is a no—deal brexit the borrower comes down and the eu insist that is the case, i think it is really dangerous what happens in ireland and there is not an easy escape from it. not an easy answer. northern ireland voted to remain and this has been done to them. as did scotland. pose for quite a long

while her showed that wales and moving towards remain. and in terms of the english identity where a few weeks ago you had that incredible poll that showed that 20 party members were willing to jettison northern ireland altogether, scotland and not even have great britain any longer but reallyjust angled and perhaps wheels. providing brexit is achieved. which is why i used that word shibboleth which means it is an religious totem. you are not european or british and i am interested as a view from the rest of the world, do you not find it equally astonishing if that threat is great ft risks particularly in northern ireland are so intense never made politics in scotland which is much more developed but the

physical conflict risk is nothing like they are, that it is an island, that the eu would be so casual about the arrest of a no—deal brexit. yes you can play the british government for the eu would be equally to blame for the eu would be equally to blame for this because they have established this in the mythology and said this is the consequence.|j don't and said this is the consequence.” don't know about equally to blame and in terms of the view from the us which does not necessarily follow the ins and outs of brexit quite the way we do in this country, there is the sense that this is britain voting for the blitz on itself, the spirit of resisting the blitz but you voted for it and you are inflicting it on yourself. the eu has been consistent pretty much with what it says is the case of their red lines on the way the british government has not. we now have a prime minister who actually voted for a very agreement he now says was terrible and he will completely scratch. the conservative used to be

called the conservative and unionist party and still is officially but the truth as as it has moved far to the truth as as it has moved far to the right, it is an england party, a party of st george and the flag and they do not like the scots because they do not like the scots because they think we give them too much money and for along time on the right that has been great resentment against the scots and welsh that is simply not much interested in northern ireland. they want to be just english which is a huge diminishment. if it makes us much less great. the extraordinary thing is to the 21st—century tory party and the country has been taken over bya and the country has been taken over by a cabal of older tony ins —— out a tony ins like jacob rees—mogg the leader of the house of commons is also deeply involved in international finance and hedge

funds and it is extortionate to see where we are in history and the longleat backwards we have taken. —— long leap backwards. i wonder what li peng, a former prime minister of china, made of the protests in hong kong, which began before he died last month. in 1989, mr li was one of the hardline leaders who responded to days of student protest by ordering the crackdown which resulted in the massacre in tiananmen square, beijing of hundreds of young people who'd been calling for democracy. two days before the killings he told student leaders "the situation will not develop as you wish and expect". there's a similarly ominous sound to the words which open a video posted thursday on social media by china's army in hong kong. in it, the troops are carrying out anti—riot exercises. one soldier shouts: "all consequences are at your own risk." the protesters gathered again this weekend in hong kong, how great a risk and the running of a crackdown?

at this point not as great as it might sound from the sabre rattling you cited which is worrisome but i do not think actually signals an imminent growing and of tax. this is because we need to think about both history and the short—term and a bit longer than that, five years ago you already had pro—democracy protests in hong kong. this is not a new phenomenon. those eventually fizzled lam phenomenon. those eventually fizzled i am sorry to say but after about two months beijing's weighted it out and you this one attrition it could win. the other thing we don't worry about is a violent crackdown at this point is that china likes to say it has 5000 years of history and knows how to play a very long game. i was there in 1987 when he had happened, people thought this one country two systems agreement between britain and china would preserve hong kong and china would preserve hong kong and 50 years would be a long time, in fact perhaps china would change

during that time. that hasn't happened but we are nearly already halfway through this agreement and after another 28 years hong kong will be completely and debasing control by international recognition, also mean much less to china that that in 1997 when it accounted for about 20% of the gdp and only about 3%. think beijing's can wait it out. i want that that is what is filing these protesters because a lot of the younger ones are supporters of the indigenous campaign so another once they do not see themselves as chinese, this in themselves as hong kong citizens and they do not like the idea that one day they will be just absorbed into china. no democrat likes the idea but as henry said, 28 years as tomorrow so if i were a democrat in hong kong i would think about going

somewhere else because china is not going to become a democratic and those 28 years and compared to five years ago the umbrella protests which were quite optimistic, there was even some joy, i'iow which were quite optimistic, there was even some joy, now i which were quite optimistic, there was even some joy, now | see which were quite optimistic, there was even some joy, now i see the very brave protesters especially when the local government seems to be renting the mafia to beat them up the way the chinese do, and then of course xi flexing his muscles even though he has more pressing problems, i agree though he has more pressing problems, iagree he is not though he has more pressing problems, i agree he is not going to serve the army but in the end economically the can very well replace hong kong as top asian investment platform. hong kong is in

a very bad place and i do not see it becoming more democratic at all. at some point for the next few days or weeks, something has to give. perhaps that is to be a compromise. they have one of the main concession oi'i they have one of the main concession on the extradition question and that seems to have strengthened them to keep going. although it is only 3% of the chinese economy is still very important in the sense it is a place thatis important in the sense it is a place that is legally trusted to do business and people are worried for big business transactions if you are trying to bring in a lot of dollars and your company, you are quite worried doing it in china because nothing is transparent, you didn't know who are dealing with our how strong the contracts will be. three are conducted in hong kong that is a

watmore trust, financial trust and i do not know whether shanghai can build the equivalent. so far it has not, it would be a loss to them. and i agree that is a shining beacon for trade in asia and china relies on that, and still raises chinese companies a huge amount of n the hong kong markets and that goes towards what i think is the hesitancy to move on to strongly because they realise they remain important and there is a greater prize formation which is taiwan which they consider part of its territory, they have some tight touted one country two systems so they have their eyes on another prize as well. this is part of the long aftermath of the british empire and it is almost impossible to see

how this reunion of hong kong with china was ever going to work because the two systems were so very different and so i agree the protesters are incredibly brave and i have been thinking a lot about what is that makes people finally say i have had enough and are going to smash my way into the legislative council and take the risk but it seems any long—term like a quixotic effort and where we are now with britain also makes it clear there is no for the hong kong people to turn because britain are relying on making trade deals in the future and with the us and the rna trademark, or that is competitive. suggest that is not much reason for china to hesitate if the protesters do not get the message soon and they did fizzle out if you years ago, there isa fizzle out if you years ago, there is a much progressive tone this

time, much more angry. the other you could look at which again invokes history as a thin do something violent and have a violent crackdown, a any tiananmen square as some might say, we also have to think that was 30 years ago, china was in the wilderness for about ten years and look round the aaron mooey, they realise that their market is so committed by developed countries that they can get away with it any longer term. obviously there would be outrage and horror to begin with but we see that does not la st begin with but we see that does not last either and once the market comes into play. it is interesting it should happen now that trump ratchets up the trade war and adds to the tariffs and threatens china but without any consideration about hong kong democracy or anything like that. he is not going to defend. members of congress human rights

said it sent a letter saying please do not sell rubber bullets etc, you are not particular hope or limit for the british example and suspend those kinds of sales?” the british example and suspend those kinds of sales? i don't see that from this administration. he has already referred to them as riots. there is one thing europe could do is to grant particle asylum to protesters. which they do not do for the moment but they might have to. an interesting thought. i don't think simon because of china was mike economic power. i think it was one former chinese who said of the french revolution when asked, he said was too soon to

tell. that's it for dateline london for this week — i'm back at the same time, next week. goodbye. as you have no doubt seen and then use the weather has had significant impacts on northern britain, very heavy downpours. quieter today but tomorrow into next week the heavy showers will become more of an issue. this afternoon we have a lot of dry weather but actually if we fly ta ke of dry weather but actually if we fly take a closer look at what is going on, with the sunshine across and takea going on, with the sunshine across and take a closer look at what is going on, with the sunshine across both of you mayjust part of some

very isolated on higher ground, the same into northern england, more cloud and patching for northern ireland, perhaps heavy assurance for the midlands and an the story changes in terms of the shower risk becoming greater for sunday as the pressure towards the west increases its influence. through the evening and overnight we will see showers from central parts fading away but heavier and more organised showers from the west into northern ireland by dawn and starting to fringe into western scotland. she meditate lifting as the low gets nearer as well, overnight rose 14 or 15. through the day with help from the sunshine heating the atmosphere and injecting energy we will see the show is more widespread for sunday across the northern half of the uk and with a risk of significant intensity with hail and thunder as well. high rainfall totals are possible at the met office has

issued a yellow weather warning as a consequence extending from the northern midlands across northern ireland and into much of southern and central scotland. it is notjust sunday we are concerned about because this area of low pressure will be with us for the first half of the new week at least and that means further bands of heavy showers pushed across the uk. again it seems the focus of some of the heavier rain or come the focus of some of the heavier rain 01’ come across the focus of some of the heavier rain or come across northern britain. monday you could see a shower at just about anywhere, also sunshine ticking temperatures up to the low to mid 20s but he has the outlook and for tuesday and wednesday we still have plenty of showers and some of the heaviest downpours for northern england, northern ireland and parts of scotland.

this is bbc news, i'm shaun ley. the headlines at 12pm. storm warnings as a big operation continues to prevent a catastrophic collapse of the damaged dam in derbyshire. the prime minister visits whaley bridge and promises a "major rebuild" to make the dam safe. this is a major problem. if that dam goes, you know the potential disruption that can wreak on the whole of the village below. residents have been allowed into their homes briefly, but have been told it could be a week