this balloon festival got going early, organisers had an ascent earlier than planned this morning to make the most of the calm weather because that is not going to last. over the next few days expect some disruption. spells of heavy rain, gales in the forecast too and your local bbc radio station will keep you up—to—date. you can see on the satellite picture this beautiful swirl of cloud but it is an unusually deep area of pressure for the time of year and it is heading oui’ the time of year and it is heading our way. at the moment we have the calm before the storm. some showers out there across scotland, northern england, northern ireland but many places dry with sunshine. but cloud gathering down to the south, and as we go through tonight we will see outbreaks of very heavy, for —— persistent, perhaps thundery rain moving into scotland by the end of the night, the wind is picking up as well. this is how we start off tomorrow. fine and dry across the

northern part of scotland, but quite blustery. for edinburgh, really unpleasant rush hour tomorrow morning. heavy rain, brisk winds, some of that hanging around in north—east england. following behind some dry weather with spells of sunshine but see these splodges on the map? some squally showers which will continue packing in from the south—west is the day wears on. the persistent rain continues its journey northwards across scotland. east anglia and the south—east dodging most of the showers but it will be windy with wind gusts through the day up to a0 mph, may be more late in the across the far south west. temperatures 15 in aberdeen, 25 in london. as we go through friday night and into saturday, this weather chart wouldn't look out of place in the winter but it is still only august. you can see the white lines squashing together, some strong winds to come across england and wales on saturday. very unusual for

this time of year. coastal spots could see 60 mph wind gusts and further north more downpours. if you have travel plans, very much worth staying in touch with the forecast as we head toward saturday. sunday will be a little calmer, the winds will be a little calmer, the winds will ease a little bit with showery rain pushing southwards. notice really cooling off across the north, 16 in belfast, so cooler air pushing in from the north—west. but before we get there, heavy rain pushing northwards during tonight and into tomorrow. some brisk winds, then a very windy day across england and wales particularly on saturday. clive. thank you. a reminder of our top story... police have described the machete attack on an officer in east london last night as "frenzied". a man in his fifties has been arrested. that's it so, goodbye from me. now on bbc one, let'sjoin our news teams where you are. have a very good afternoon.

good afternoon. it's all about the football transfer window today. clubs in england have until 5pm to get their business done — with the deadline fast approaching. tottenham were hoping to confirm a big name from juventus, but there's a spanner in the works! our correspondent david ornstein is here. it looks like their move for paulo dybala is off. this would have been an enormous dealfor tottenham. it this would have been an enormous deal for tottenham. it would this would have been an enormous dealfor tottenham. it would have been one of the biggest deals we have seen on deadline day in quite some time, talk of 75 million euros. it seemed it was edging closer and they were close to an agreement between tottenham and juventus and totte n ha m between tottenham and juventus and tottenham and the player but a couple of hours later we got information that the deal was off, thatjuventus had information that the deal was off, that juventus had decided information that the deal was off, thatjuventus had decided they do

not want to sell this man, the 25—year—old argentinian international. there may be something deeper to let that may come out of a time but unfortunately totte n ha m come out of a time but unfortunately tottenham will miss out on that man but they will get this man from the long, a young left—sided player, an england youth international. £25 million. it could rise to 30. they will also get a midfielder who is very highly rated from real betis. snow look set to confirm two new signings. this is a bit of a shock. on deadline day arsenal agreeing an £8 million fee for the chelsea centre back david luiz. he signed a new contract recently and said he loves chelsea and he wanted to stay there but it has turned round. he hasjoined arsenal. reports he

there but it has turned round. he has joined arsenal. reports he fell out with frank lampard. he also knows in in the arsenal head coach. there will be another incoming at arsenal who is kieran tierney from celtic who has been a long—term target of arsenal and they have stepped up to the plate. it took a long time. kieran tierney‘s fee as a record fee for scotland. he is undergoing a stringent medical as he has various medical problems that he should come through design our five year contract whereas david luiz will be a two—year deal. year contract whereas david luiz will be a two-year deal. the romelu lukaku deal could be coming to an end. he is on to inter milan and a deal worth 80 million euros. it has not been happy is time for him at manchester united but he has scored goals and it does not seem like

manchester united will replace him before the deadline. he wanted to link up with antonio conte who has wa nted link up with antonio conte who has wanted to sign him previously at chelsea and elsewhere. he is in italy and you may have seen pictures of the fans fanatically welcoming romelu lu ka ku to of the fans fanatically welcoming romelu lukaku to the club. one of the signings we might see today? do drinkwater, when we were talking about chelsea earlier with david luiz, another player to be leaving is drinkwater. he is going to burnley. reports he is undergoing a medical. he has barely played for chelsea. burnley perhaps a surprise destination but he lives in that pa rt destination but he lives in that part of the world. reports suggest andy carroll's dealer is going to be completed today, leaving west ham to go back to his boyhood club newcastle. he left newcastle for

liverpool in an infamous deadline day deal in january liverpool in an infamous deadline day deal injanuary a few years ago. scott carson most recently was at derby county and he is coming into manchester city to help them with their home—grown player quarter and will probably be the third choice goalkeeper. scott carson one of the most bizarre deals of the window. and the bbc website and app is the place for all your transfer updates throughout the day. when we know, you'll know. that's all the sport for now. un scientists have warned that drastic changes are needed in global land use, agriculture and human diets, to limit global warming. the intergovernmental panel on climate change says unsustainable farming and deforestation is having an increasingly negative effect on the environment, and one solution is for people in rich countries to eat less intensively—farmed meat. our science editor david shukman went to a world leading plant research centre in the netherlands

to get their reaction. cutting back on meat is a good idea for adults who are healthy. it is not necessarily a good idea to completely cut it out. there are groups that need meat — pregnant women, children, the elderly — but most people in western countries just eat too much meat. on the other hand, you have large groups of the population in africa and asia who do not eat enough meat, so we will need to find a new balance, but animals are essential in the overall agriculture system in the world because they can eat some of the food waste, and they can also convert grass into something that we can eat. a final quick point — a lot of people, including young people, are very worried about climate change and where the world is heading. what is your sense about whether there are solutions? i understand the worry, but i'm also convinced that there are many solutions, and that we can adjust to the pace of change. we have learnt to deal with drought, we have learnt to deal with floods in the past,

and we will be able to do that. we will also develop new crops with new genetic characteristics, new crops that actually can harness the sunlight even better, so that will help us in the right direction in the next few decades. borisjohnson has declined to comment on rumours of a general election saying that britain will leave the eu on october the 31st. we are going to leave the european union on october 31st, which is what the people of this country voted for. it's what mps voted for and it's what i think the parliamentarians in this country should get on and do, thank you. you're not concerned about disregarding the will of parliament? i think that mps should get on and deliver on what they have promised over and over and over again to the people of this country, they will deliver on the mandate of 2016 and leave the eu on october 31st. thank you.

we can speak to the leader of the independent group for change and assembly. lots of debate about what a no—confidence vote might mean in terms of leaving on the 31st of october without a deal. as far as you are aware, what can mps feasibly do to prevent leaving without a deal on october the 31st? the first thing to understand and recognise is as a member of parliament are elected by the people in my constituency to represent all of them, i'm not a delegate for a political party or any ideological faction, and the role of members of parliament, we live in a parliamentary democracy, is to do the right thing by our country and our constituents, and time again parliament acting on behalf of the people of this country has said it is absolutely not in the

interests of our country for us to crash out of the european union without a deal, and there are important things. first, the thing that the leave campaign told us which we should absolutely hold them to is that they promised we would not leave without a deal, and the second is that the people of this country did not vote for us to leave the european union without a deal and when theresa may went to the people in june and when theresa may went to the people injune 2017 and sought a mandate for effectively a hard brexit she lost her majority and so the biggest thing is for all mps to do the right thing and accept, as they have done, that we are not going to cash out without a deal. in the words of the former business secretary it would be a disaster and for northern ireland it would be a disaster for the peace process. we know what boris johnson would disaster for the peace process. we know what borisjohnson would say on

many in the conservative party, but thatis many in the conservative party, but that is not what the british people voted for, they voted to leave the european union and the current deadline is october the 31st. how do you think parliament can stop that happening? there are various things parliament can do and these are the sort of discussions on things that we will continue to debate notjust through the summer but when we return in september. a no-confidence vote boris johnson return in september. a no-confidence vote borisjohnson says he would ignore. that would be outrageous. he has the prime minister of this country, elected by some within the region of 100,000 people, country, elected by some within the region of100,000 people, members country, elected by some within the region of 100,000 people, members of the conservative party, which is galloping to the right and embracing an ideological crash out of the european union, which i will maintain, although the referendum three years ago resulted in 52% of those people who voted voting us to leave the european union, it was absolutely on the basis that this country would leave in a smooth and

orderly way which meant that we would at least have some idea of the sort of relationship we would have the european union. we would not cash out without a deal. boris johnson needs to do the right thing by representing everybody in this country and that scotland and northern ireland in particular where the stakes are particularly high. he has a duty to the union and the people of the businesses of this country and a duty to keep the peace process alive and to cash out without a deal would be profoundly irresponsible. you have to wonder who on earth he thinks he is. would you back a national unity government? i made that is more than 18 months ago because i think the british people are fed up with the whole wretched thing. the danger is because of theresa may's irresponsible mantra that no deal would be better than a bad deal, and borisjohnson would be better than a bad deal, and boris johnson voted would be better than a bad deal, and borisjohnson voted for would be better than a bad deal, and boris johnson voted for theresa may's deal, and so did michael gove, michael gove said it was a very good

deal, but in any event the danger 110w deal, but in any event the danger now is that people are so fed up of it they just say let's just get out and it is the duty of responsible politicians representing our constituents and putting their interests and the country first to say that would be the very worst outcome. is that what you are doing, putting the interests of the country first? in the european elections parties that wanted britain to leave the european union by the deadline got a majority. we saw that in the recent by—election in wales as well. sorry? the welsh by—election? let them won. yes, but the number of votes gathered by the conservative party and the brexit party were more than that. we are basing our future ona

than that. we are basing our future on a by—election? and an eu election where, forgive me, if you look at the turnout, 35 or 36%, and look at what the brexit party and the conservative party got, and it is something like less than 50% of the voters in this country. we are going to determine our country's future on that basis? when this government or rather the previous conservative government on their own analysis said two things. one that the very worst thing our country can do is leave deal and secondly the impact assessments which i have seen, because i secured their disclosure, we are by no means ready to crash out of the european union, which is why as i go back to cn, the former business secretary said it would be disastrous for this country and he was right then and he is right today and he will be right on october the 31st if that happens. it would be an outrage. my final thing is this,

31st if that happens. it would be an outrage. my finalthing is this, it would be an absolute denial of everything that is democratic and write about our country and write about being british if we were to leave the european union without a deal in the face of the knowledge that that is actually not what the majority of people in this country want. that is what borisjohnson seems to be prepared to do and it is disgraceful. given everything you have just said disgraceful. given everything you havejust said are disgraceful. given everything you have just said are you expecting a vote of no confidence? have just said are you expecting a vote of no confidence ?|j have just said are you expecting a vote of no confidence? i have no idea. it is not within my gift. we have to be careful because if there isa have to be careful because if there is a vote of no confidence early in september and no alternative government can come together, and we do not wantjeremy corbyn, thank you very much, but we want those sensible moderate members of parliament from the labour party and the conservative party and all the rest of us coming together. that would require someone in the region

of about 300 labour and conservative backbenchers to show the sort of carriage which sadly so few have shown over the last three years but if nothing is impossible dotted up the danger is unless that happens and there is a vote of no confidence then borisjohnson chooses when he called the general election and i am afraid the greatest tragedy would be every gadget on october the 31st and we hold a general election on november the 1st. it is important we put the country first and we remember we are a parliamentary democracy. we represent our constituents and if they do not lie because they will boot as out. up to a5,000 cows could be culled in northern ireland in the event of a no—deal brexit, if new higher tariffs are applied to british milk. that's the warning from senior industry figures, who say rising prices could force farmers to cut the size of their herds. simonjones reports. could cattle be facing a cull? a big rise in the price of british milk might see a drop in demand

in the republic of ireland, according to senior industry figures. there are more than 300,000 dairy cattle in northern ireland. a third of the milk they produce is exported to the republic for processing, between 700 and 800 million litres a year. if tariffs were applied the price would be pushed up. if there is a tariff on milk, which is the current state of play, once we are outside the european union, that business no longer works. it may then also not be legal to mix milk from the north and south. the fear among producers is they could be left with a glut of milk, and that might necessitate a reduction in herds. the department for rural affairs says a widespread cull of livestock

is not something the government anticipates in the event of no deal. during the dozens of meetings i have had in no—deal planning, including meetings with the devolved assemblies, never once have we considered the culling of dairy cows in northern ireland. the government insists it will make brexit work forfarmers. in a moment, we'll have all the business news, but first the headlines on bbc news: the prime minister praises the bravery of a policeman injured in a machete attack. borisjohnson said more money would be spent on front line policing. eating less meat could help slow down global warming. torrential rain is causing disruption for travellers in parts of scotla nd disruption for travellers in parts of scotland as flooding causes the main rail line between edinburgh and glasgow.

now the business news. new cars can be broken into in ten seconds. that's the warning from whatcar magazine. keyless entry systems allow owners — and thieves — to open and start cars without taking a key out of their pocket. car theft rates in england and wales have reached an eight—year high. a weaker line—up of films fails to bring in the punters at the cinema. admissions to cineworld cinemas fall as it competes for eyeballs with home streaming services like netflix. rya nair pilots have voted to strike in a row over pay and conditions. the british airline pilots association has announced two walkouts, one from 22—23 august, while the second strike will be from 2—a september.

the housing market is "pretty much flatlining" amid growing concerns about brexit and political uncertainty, according to surveyors. but there's a mixed picture depending on which end of the market you look at. more expensive homes seem to be facing a more challenging time — with most failing to get the asking price. the royal institution of chartered surveyors july survey found though that homes priced under half a million pounds, almost two—thirds were getting the asking price or better. and it varies around the uk — prices going up in northern ireland, scotland and wales. while average values continued falling in london, the south east and east anglia. simon rubinsohn is chief economist at the royal institution of chartered surveyors. it has been put down to the fears of political uncertainty and uncertainty around brexit. how do you know that is what is putting by yourself? this is conducted among professionals around the country. we are listening to them and they are working up the coal face of the

market and getting the input from buyers and sellers and seeing the difficulty in executing trades. they are seeing the price points that deals are being agreed on. we collate that information so we are listening to what is actually happening out there on each high street around the country. is there is not perhaps for many people a welcome connection to a market that has got very overheated at times and actually this is great for people trying to get on the property ladder and brings home is a little bit closer to affordability?” and brings home is a little bit closer to affordability? i am the first to agree with that point that the market had become quite expensive in some parts of the country, perhaps not all parts. in no way is the survey meant to be focusing and lamenting the fact that prices are not going up. the real ta keaway prices are not going up. the real takeaway from this particular survey

is that activity levels are subdued, and if one is to believe the latest data from hmrc on property transactions, whichever are foreshadowed, we have seen quite a over the last couple of months, and thatis over the last couple of months, and that is the real problem, that people who want to move, who want to get onto the ladder, are unable to do so because the market feels so clogged. the divergence in different parts of the country, is that emerging in the direction of average house prices. do you get the sense thatis house prices. do you get the sense that is likely to widen as we go forward or is it kind of stabilising? there's divergence has beenin stabilising? there's divergence has been in play for a couple of years. i suspect it is going to continue in the near term. i see little on the horizon that is going to shift things around very much. there is also a significant divergence between the new—build market in the second—hand market with the former

being supported by the help buy subsidy. thank you. a round up of a few other stories for you. no new 1p and 2p coins were produced by the royal mint last year. it is the first time in decades that it stopped making the coins. cash use has fallen across the uk — yet over 2 million people are estimated to be almost entirely reliant on cash in their daily lives, with the elderly, vulnerable and those in rural communities likely to be hardest hit by any decline in cash availability. a5,000 dairy cows could be culled in northern ireland, in the event of a no—deal brexit if new higher tariffs are applied to british milk. northern ireland is particularly vulnerable because about a third of its dairy output is processed in the republic of ireland, which would continue to be part of the eu. a source has told the bbc that the culling of cattle could start within weeks of that date if that happened without the uk

and eu agreeing a deal. the head of the clothing chain zara has addressed concerns that his industry is creating an environmentally unsustainable spiral of demand for the latest fashion trends. in his first broadcast interview, pablo isla today promised to make it easier for consumers to recycle last season's garments. a commuter received £27,602 from network rail after "possibly slipping" on pigeon poo at paddington. data obtained by the bbc has revealed network rail has paid out nearly a million pounds in five years for slips, trips and falls at its stations. mining stocks are leading the gains on london's main index after a round of chinese data soothed some global growth fears and nickel prices jumped amid supply worries.

one of the stand—out performers is the fund supermarket hargreaves lansdown. its shares are sharply higher. that's a rebound from the beating they took injune as nearly a quarter of its clients were exposed to neil woodford's suspended fund. hargreaves has just reported results which beat forecasts in terms of the amount of investments that people hold with them. gold eased slightly after a surge above $1,500 for the first time since april 2013 in the previous session in response to us—china trade uncertainties. that's all the business news. today has turned into one of the drier, calmer days of this week but that is not a sign of things to come. some pretty rough weather on the way as we head towards the weekend. some heavy rain at times and gales

could cause travel problems. on the satellite you can see this beautiful cloud. this is an unusually deep area of low pressure for this time of year and it is heading in our direction. before it arrives the rest of this afternoon is looking dry for many with some showers. those are the temperatures to end the day. you can see cloud and rain gathering behind me. tonight those outbreaks of heavy rain will drive their way northwards across many parts of the uk. moving through england and wales and southern scotland through the night. the winds picking up as well. starting tomorrow largely dry across the northern half of scotland with blustery winds but a poor rush hour in edinburgh and glasgow with heavy and persistent rain and the odd rumble of thunder. some of that rain hanging around in northern ireland. down to the south, some drier weather, but you can see these splodges on the chart,

heavy thundery showers which continue to work their way northwards as the day wears on. the persistent rain eases northwards across scotland. there will be some sunshine towards the south—east, but it is going to be windy in exposed spots, and temperatures between 15 and 25 degrees. moving through friday and into saturday the low pressure is still with us and notice these white lines squashing together, which shows that saturday is going to be a windy day, particularly across the southern half of the uk. inland parts could have gusts of 50 mph. very unusual for this time of year and it is likely to cause some problems. there will be heavy rain in places as well. not a great day on saturday if you have any outdoor plans. the winds easing as we go into sunday and we will see showery rain pushing southeastwards

and a bit of sunshine and turning very cool in the north of the uk.

hello, you're watching afternoon live. i'm martine croxall. today at 2. a policeman is critically ill in hospital, after what's described as a "frenzied" machete attack in east london. it shows the vital importance of investing in policing, and that is why i am putting up 20,000 officers out on the street. a dramatic rise in women and girls carrying knives in england. up 73% in five years. scientists warn food production must be more sustainable. cutting down on meat and dairy will help tackle global warming. coming up on afternoon live all the sport with olly — it's football transfer deadline day. three hours to go until the transfer

window closes. manchester