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tv   Dateline London  BBC News  August 11, 2019 2:30am-3:00am BST

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notjust hindus, but nobody from any other part of india can settle in kashmir. that is why imran khan this week talked about a fear of potential ethnic cleansing in kashmir. doubtless, we will return to this topic. borisjohnson looks like a man who's enjoying himself. the british prime minister, two weeks into the job, is at last able to do stuff. he's instructed the treasury to come this is bbc news. up with the money for 20,000 the headlines: more police officers — the fbi is to investigate the death roughly equal to the number lost of the multi millionaire businessman as a result of the austerity policy and convicted sex offender, pursued by the two previous jeffrey epstein, who was found dead conservative prime ministers. in his cell, in a jail in new york. the 66—year—old is believed to have taken his own life, while awaiting trial over allegedly trafficking dozens of underage girls for sex. a powerful typhoon has struck the south east coast of china killing at least 22 people with 10 more missing. more than a million people have had to leave their homes with emergency teams setting up temporary shelters. hundreds of flights have been as part of plans for a competitive, cancelled and secondary emergencies triggered by powerful post—brexit uk, he's changing the rules on immigration, winds and high waves. turning the country, mrjohnson says, "into a supercharged magnet
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police in moscow are reported drawing scientists like iron filings to have made more than two hundred from around the world". arrests, during protests organised by opposition groups. but that magnet won't be powerful the rally, in support of free enough to attract the minority elections, was authorised of his party colleagues who oppose by officials, but the march moved leaving the european union without an agreement. as the risk of that grows, so does talk of options away from its permitted route. for parliament to block a no—deal brexit, and ways prime minister johnson could stop them. tim, what do you think the prime minister and his team are up to? what they would say they are trying to do is to accomplish in three now on bbc news, dateline london. months what they would say theresa may failed to do in three years, which is to have a proper negotiation between equals, them with the eu, and they would say what equalises that negotiation is britain being ready and willing to walk away from the table, and that is why they are stepping up preparations for no—deal. at this stage, when you are this close to crashing out by legal default on october the 31st, it doesn't matter if preparations for no—deal is a bluff, which i suspect it is, or if britain is actually preparing for no—deal, hello and welcome to the programme because when it comes down that brings together some to spending the money, of the uk's leading columnists putting the infrastructure in, with the foreign correspondents preparing the tax plans, who file stories for the folks back there is no difference between that and just bluffing. home with the dateline "london". in effect, what the government this week, india's prime minister, is trying to do is to accomplish narendra modi, ends autonomy for kashmir to free it what they would say theresa may from being terrorised failed to do. by violence, but could it don't forget, when they do this, make that problem worse? and you've probably heard they are talking to two audiences — of fantasy football. one is the eu, to say,
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is the week's chatter in the uk about a general election you need to renegotiate and take out the backstop so we can sell and a government of national unity fantasy politics? it to the tory brexit with me are... rebels in parliament. they are also talking to the brexit party, because they've done the maths and they know, if the conservative tim stanley, a leader writer on the daily telegraph newspaper. party is seen to pursue a soft, theresa may—style brexit, michael goldfarb, the us broadcaster they will win over a handful who presents the podcast the first rough draft of history. of moderates but they will lose ashis ray, who's been a foreign about 20% of the electorate correspondent since 1977, to the brexit party. including with the times of india. if they pursue a harder brexit, nesrine malik, a sudanese—born even if it can't be done, writer who's a columnist even if it means they are forced for the guardian newspaper. to hold an election, a warm welcome to all of you. even if it means political chaos, they are more likely to win an election if one is then held. so this is a huge political gamble. donald trump has offered his nobody is denying that. services as a mediator — not a talent you might associate with a politician as polarising as the us president. but it offers one explanation for this week's big change — the scrapping of article 370 of india's constitution, but i also suspect that, which permitted jammu and kashmir, at this stage, this close, the only state in india which has with the choice really a muslim majority, between leaving this year or not a degree of autonomy. at all, my suspicion is that boris‘s kashmir is contested — a permanent source of tension very precarious path to brexit and occasional bouts of conflict with india's neighbour, pakistan. is probably the only path now left until now, the us has treated jammu to britain for leaving the eu. and kashmir as an internal matter. so europe will blink first?
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no, it won't. this is my first time on the show when president trump told imran khan, the prime minister since boris became prime minister, of pakistan, he was willing and throughout theresa may's to mediate between the two premiership and towards the end it countries, it might have convinced narendra modi, felt like an increasingly more precarious game ofjenga — india's pm, it was time to act. when is this going to collapse? and then, when she resigned, ashis ray, it's a dramatic move. it seemed it was going to collapse will it lead to dramatic change? even quicker, and now boris is really bringing the endgame, i think, notjust for the brexit process but i think the jury is out. there is a lot of controversy, for the tory party. and what i can confirm as we speak is that the national conference, it feels like there is some sort which has been the main political force in kashmirfor 75 years, of running out of road for them in fact the party that gave a popular ratification to the maharajah's accession to india, has today gone as an ideological entity to the supreme court in india and as a practical government. to challenge the orders and i agree, i agree with tim, which have been passed. of course, there are two parts i think that boris has cornered to what happened earlier this week. the first is the scrapping of article 370, which gave a special himself in this position, status to kashmir by virtue of that whether he believes in it or not, accession treaty, but that was done that this is the only way away with by a presidential order. he can get some more road for the conservative party, because they've pinned themselves to it and they cannot afford to lose brexit votes, and they are now
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really selling a hard brexit as a good thing. then came two equally as opposed to a thing they'd rather controversial moves. avoid, now it's suddenly one was to downgrade something that's great. the region from full statehood what is genuinely disturbing, to what is called a union territory. two union territories, as a matter of fact, because the state has been actually, is this whole the eu bifurcated into jammu and kashmir, which was the original title of the state, and ladakh, is going to blink first, which is one of the regions the eu will blink at one minute to midnight on the 315t of october, the eu doesn't want a no—deal, and that's the only card we have in our pocket. ijust think, if you are negotiating and doing this really complex, very smart, svengali—type backdoor negotiations, you oughtn't to be of jammu and kashmir. waving the cards that are in your pocket all over the media all the time. this is what we have — you are going to blink because we will threaten you with no—deal. so the eu has complete does that mean they can ingress and insight effectively be run from delhi? into what the british cards are — yes, mainly by the all you have is no—deal, central government. all controversial, but parts that is going to harm you more two and three have gone than us, we have made this very through the indian parliament and have been voted on favourably clear, why would we suddenly by both houses of parliament. that said, i think this move change our position, is seen by a lot of people so close to the end? as misguided and rash, for the simple reason that much of article 370 had been diluted,
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and it had been diluted with concurrence of the state what is happening now assembly ofjammu and kashmir, in preparation for that, so in this case what has happened what is happening is this very is that a draconian style disturbing, parallel universe, post—truth situation, has been adopted to do where michael gove and other away with article 370, brexiteers are saying, which gave, as i said, very disappointed in the eu, they are refusing to negotiate, not been very grown—up, a degree of autonomy. and we are being grown—up to start with, when the accession treaty took place, only three items and coming to the table. were with the indian central government — defence, foreign affairs and communications. the rest were with the state. but, over the years... it's completely upside down. he said we hold all the cards the morning after we voted to leave, and there are no cards, just a bluff card. yes! and what's interesting is... i kept thinking of what donald trump said when boris johnson became prime minister. he couldn't even remember the guy's name, hejust said britain trump, it's been eroded. and i keep remembering what boris things have come back said — his criticism of theresa may to the central government, but what has also happened was, she didn't follow is the assembly of jammu donald trump's advice to go and kashmir, which sat in well hard. between 1950 and 1957, i think he even said finally said that article 370 cannot be abrogated,
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so it will be a very interesting those precise words, a test case in the supreme court of india. like he is a well hard guy himself, let's see what happens, you know, playing rugby against ten—year—olds. i have this terrible feeling what the supreme court has to say. that there is a similarity in their approach to getting things done between donald trump and boris johnson. it's high—risk because presumably the danger is that it fans donald trump was a real the conflict and makes people estate developer. who have been pushing for independence for kashmir even more determined, he used to go to brownfield sites because they have even less to lose. with local politicians and say, we are going to build a great thing right here. didn't have the money lined up or anything lined up. when i hear the daily, oh, here's a billion quid to build hs2 between leeds and manchester, yes, but there are two 1.9 billion for the nhs, parallel streams here. one is the increasingly sharp as if he can magic this up! and more draconian tone of politics in india, i don't think it is an unknown but as you mentioned quantity in brussels, correctly in the introduction and when they see this kind there is also the global context. you see this all over the world, of behaviour, they willjust where local conflicts that had kind of been rested but stable are being pushed into actual think, it'sjust gas, volatility by heads of state that are trying to garner popular support there is nothing there. and get votes, because they realise you can sort i do worry about how you complete. of get away with it now.
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america is not looking. if we are headed towards the exit, and it's clear that the remain groupings cannot agree if anything, it is actively encouraging this instability. on when to have coffee, much less china was traditionally an ally of pakistan and is now a strategy to stop this train, in its own islamophobic crisis. i just worry that we'll end up on october the 31st with this hot air balloon suddenly being pricked and we will exit in the worst possible way. we do have cards. which card? the extraordinary thing saudi arabia is under the control with theresa may was to say of mohammad bin salman, who isn't somebody you can go to for help with in the manifesto she believed subcontinental crises. no—deal was better than a bad deal. before, they used to pump money into pakistan. if that was true, so there are a lot of global axes you have to prepare that before would have stabilised for the possibility of no—deal. these kind of conflicts but who are either under their own the government is arguing that you populist leaders at the moment, turn disadvantage to our advantage, and they are saying, or are distracted by something else. we are suddenly outside and we need so i think we are going to see more to attract scientists, of this, and we've seen so we suddenly change the visa this in saudi arabia system to attract scientists.
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and the middle east in general. we've seen people trying to push their luck to see what they can get away with. even though the 0bama administration you suddenly cut taxes. and previous administrations there is a lot of stuff were not particularly interventionist, in an explicit way, there was work behind—the—scenes, that will be costly, rapping of knuckles, but that doesn't happen anymore. things like operation kingfisher, we are beginning to see to essentially compensate... that rise to the top. how are these negotiations...? the eu will be hurt by us do you have a sense that he's crashing out without a deal. made his bold move and he's multiple cards? what about theresa may? going to get away with it? the day after, assuming the worst case scenario on november the 1st, the day after, you are still going to have to negotiate a new free if any indian leader trade agreement with the eu, were going to do this, now would be the time, with electoral strength, the opposition disintegrating. and so they will say, i think nesrine is right. you framed this as donald trump what about that 39 billion quid offering to intervene, you owe us when you crashed out? but he makes an entry into geopolitics and it goes the other way. that's one of the cards. it's funny, because the indian papers this morning — if we leave without the deal, thank god for the internet, we don't play that. i could read some of them — that's a card for later on. so you'd say you have no free
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but they are leading on vladimir putin endorsing this move. trade in the future... this is a huge thing. the government, i'd presume, it says that, in asia now, would seek to negotiate an eta. vladimir putin has reasserted but i'd say they would say himself, and geopolitically russia the same things they said is as strong as it during the withdrawal agreement has been in decades. the other thing is the china question. which is, fine, you still owe what i am coming around to is the absence of a response from pakistan. us that 39 billion, there would have to be a backstop. what you are assuming is that everything stays equal on november the 1st. you know and i know that what is likely to happen around the uk is a movement breaking it up. how many years did the uruguay round take? i will tell you, it took a long time. if you can't come to an agreement, what is owed from previous that seems very interesting to me, the idea that imran khan is not capable of merely shaking his fist arrangements and the backstop, these negotiations will go about that move, and that says a lot on and on and on and, about internal weakness in pakistan. in scotland and in northern ireland, when we talk about ladakh and jammu and other parts, you know, and kashmir, i looked at the map and the north—eastern border is with china, and i think, long before we get to any kind of violence, china will have a lot you are assuming... to say about some kind of resolution
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the problem with the model. nobody is denying the fact of without violence. that the eu will be harmed by a no—deal brexit, i wouldn't say they are going to come out unscathed, but the point is that the impact on the uk will be much larger than the eu, and all these cards i would say though that pakistan has already made several noises. people are talking about... the fact is that i am disappointed to inform pakistani friends that they don't really have a legal case in this situation. what pakistan can do, and they are already doing, is to take this matter up diplomatically and politically, because it is spread and equally the indian government among fewer people? a right to defend their position. yes. all of these cards but what you mentioned to start are remedial cards. we have seen the first warning with, russia has indicated that this in the contraction in the economy is an internal situation, in the quarter ending injune, and i also see this as really so that should be a warning kashmir versus delhi, because that is really to people who are still what the battle is about. sitting on the fence. what is being feared in india that said, let me take a little is that kashmir will become more step back and say this — anti—delhi and therefore disaffection and at the end of the day, militancy will grow. a political party exists security forces will get bogged down, human rights to fight elections, win violations will take place. elections and to be in power, and i take tim's point to the extent that it is very important for the conservative party politically to reclaim the support
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that has haemorrhaged to the brexit party, so therefore, to that extent, boris‘s strategy is understandable. that said, i think we are otherwise into somewhat uncharted territory, because this may be borisjohnson‘s 0n the question of militancy, one way in which pakistan has been strategy, but equally there accused in the past on situations is strong opposition in parliament, like this is by arming and there could be a scenario, and supporting the militant groups that then use violence and i see this happening, to further their cause. that there will be a bit of a contest between parliament and the executive, and what that means is that parliament will have to find a way of stopping boris johnson. india's argument is it is the pakistani intelligence forces encouraging radicalism in kashmir that has caused the breakdown of security, and effectively kashmir has been run by the central government since december. it is their argument for why and the final thought on that, they need to step in, to bring security, stability according to the constitution unit, and economic development to kashmir. that's the indian argument. effectively, if borisjohnson were to lose a vote of confidence,
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i think the problem with that is threefold. it would be possible for parliament 0ne, it is likely to radicalise then to mandate him as a caretaker politics within kashmir, which would undermine security. prime minister pending a general second, it is likely to radicalise politics in pakistan. election or some other any conflict over kashmir usually executive coming in to say, strengthens the army in pakistan, and conservative muslim elements you have to go to brussels will react strongly. and ask for an extension. it's possible nobody knows. third, there is a great fear that what india might be about to engage in is what is happening in many my experience is, as soon as you say countries, where you use ethnic displacement, this will constitutionally happen, where you use the large mass other expert comes along movement of people in order and says the opposite. to extend political control. people are putting forward the so the argument is that, models of the worst case scenarios. up until now, hindus from outside the government is emphasising its kashmir have not been able to buy land or property or to settle within kashmir. models of the best case scenarios. it is the known unknowns once you get rid of the special and the unknown unknowns. status, once new delhi is in control, they can move in, donald rumsfeld, where are you when we need you? and it's estimated it would take that's it for dateline london for this week. something like the move we're back next week of 2.5 million hindus into kashmir at the same time. to change the ethnic status goodbye. of kashmir, which would change political control. that's the sort of thing we've seen taking place in china and tibet, and it's something i've personally seen recently in iraq and the northern parts of iraq, where it is alleged that groups backed by shia militias are displacing christians. the long—term fear of kashmiris
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is that political control 00:13:01,278 --> 4294966103:13:29,430 will be taken over. hello. the weather has thrown a lot of things at us so far this weekend. torrential rain, thunderstorms, and those very strong and in places damaging winds, here whipping up the sea at lyme regis in dorset. while it is an exposed spot, and 84mph gust at the needles on the isle of wight would be notable in october, let alone august. we have seen widespread gusts of 50—60 miles an hour well inland as well, all down to this steep area of low pressure which continues to pull away north and east overnight, slowly taking the strongest winds with it, but leaving in its wake this trail of fronts, which will bring quite a wet day to scotland and northern england. at least we begin sunday with somewhat lighter winds. still quite windy, particularly for eastern england and also northern scotland, and it's scotland and northern england that we're most concerned about through sunday. some heavy rain, we could well see 20—30 millimetres quite widely, maybe 40—50 millimetres in some places.
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it is really through the central belt, down into southern scotland and northern england, that we're going to see the heaviest of the rain. to the north, some spells of sunshine, plus northern and western scotland. northern ireland is not having too bad a day. across a large swathe of england and wales, away from the far north, a mix of sunny spells and showers. still windy through sunday afternoon across the northern isles and the far north of scotland, but at least dry, with spells of sunshine tending across to the western isles. you can see this heavy rain in the central belt, down into southern scotland, just fringing the far north of england as well. mainly dry with spells of sunshine for northern ireland. a mixture of sunny spells and some heavy and in places thundery showers pushing their way from west to east across england and wales. some will manage to stay dry. where you have the sunshine, 22 or 23 celsius. where you have the persistent rain across parts of scotland, temperatures will struggle to get above 1a or 15. so quite a cool day here. that's the theme as we begin the new week.
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by the time we get to monday, those fronts are starting to slide away south and east, taking the persistent rain with them. so it's drying up across parts of southern scotland and northern england through monday morning. behind that rain, we will see some spells of sunshine developing. it may take some time for the rain to finally disappear, but as the day wears on we have showers spreading across the country, perhaps pushing further east through the day, and really quite a cool feeling. i think most will struggle to get much above 18 or 19. little change, really, in the end. a mixture of sunny spells, showers, maybe some longer spells of rain on wednesday, turning a bit drier through thursday and friday.
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hello and welcome to bbc news. i'm reged ahmad. the disgraced american financierjeffrey epstein,
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who once counted donald trump and prince andrew among his friends, has been found dead in his cell while awaiting trial for child sex offences. it appears he managed to take his own life at a prison in new york, considered one of the most secure in the us, despite having made a previous suicide attempt there last month. with the latest from new york, here's nedda tawfik. the body ofjeffrey epstein is taken away from a new york
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