this is the business briefing. i'm sally bundock. heading for safety. investors vote with their feet as concerns about the global economy persist. shares in ge plunge after allegations of a potential accounting scandal. the company denies the claims. following the latest escalation in us—china trade tensions,

investors around the world are heading for safe—haven assets — amid worries about the global economy. the us—china trade war and uncertainty over brexit are just some of the factors weighing on markets. and that's led to volatile trading in many markets around the world. over the past nine months the price of gold has shot up dramatically — rising more than $300 per ounce. but it's notjust gold. over the same period german government debt — from europe's traditional power house economy — has been a magnet for investors — pushing returns on the bonds to record lows. concerns about global growth have really accelerated over the past 3—4 months. you can see this in demand for the japanese yen — also often seen as a safe—haven

in times of trouble. pablo shah, senior economist at the centre for economics and business research joins me now. how real is the threat of a global recession? we put the risk at about one third, see a global recession over the next two years so, at risk has built up quite significantly over the recent months, there are a number of factors weighing on the other, there is ongoing trade war between the us and china, that is not show much signs of show —— slowing down, is expanding into other issues, there isa expanding into other issues, there is a risk of an ideal brexit, every corner of the globe, you see parts of them dealing with crazies to argentina to so does india, this comes together to form a perfect storm is going to be difficult to

ove i’co m e storm is going to be difficult to overcome so we are storm is going to be difficult to overcome so we are forecasting a global slowdown over the next year, recession we think can be avoided, who proactive policy which have been shown by governments. do you think that's true? it appears that governments around the world are deteriorating in their ability to deal with their own domestic agenda and some of those international bombs, shall we say, that have linked countries before and enable them to see past some of the differences in the name of the greater good, they seem to be deteriorating too. it's true that trade in general, the openness to globalisation, has receded in recent yea rs, globalisation, has receded in recent years, but in terms of government spending, we are seeing the chinese government unrolling very major infrastructure plans to try to mitigate some of the demands and impact of the uncertainty created by trade. in the uk, the government is signalling steps, potentially moving away from austerity, we have the tax

cut package in the us, on the trade front, policies have not been so conducive to growth in terms of erecting barriers and creating uncertainty for businesses, government are aware of the need to deploy things like tax cuts, spending, infrastructure, given that the scope of reaction is so limited with interest rate still very low by historical standards. there is not a huge amount of room when it comes to but the central bankers around the world can do but i want to pick up on your point with things like china and the stimulus package, things are the nelson road initiative, how likely is said to be as deliver in terms of positive effects for economies or is something that china and nobody else. this is a very ambitious game and deserving of footprint around the world to stop guessing in africa and parts of eastern europe, greece, italy, potentially getting involved, this

has major facts potentially getting involved, this has majorfacts in the potentially getting involved, this has major facts in the short term to the breach of demand construction activity, there is a long—term productivity gains. if it does prove to be as large in scope as envisioned, this will be one of the major drives of both that should hopefully for the economy out of this difficult patch to the end of the next decade. it's nice to have a positive and upbeat economist in the room. it's not often we get one. i wa nt to room. it's not often we get one. i want to ask you about what been worrying about. the inverted yield curve. this is people who are in the markets and are concerned about global growth and the like they are willing to accept very little, in fa ct, willing to accept very little, in fact, the reverse in order to park their money. in the past, this is been seen as a mark of potential recession they should the road. what you think? how reliable are situations like that as a predictor

processions? the invasion of the yield curve indicates that investors have a very dim out for the economy in the long—term, the evidence to mean their view inflationary risk is being bow. that is associated with a period of slow or even negative both. as you say, it has been a fairly reliable predictor and the us of recession, sumter was the case but historically it has been. in the uk, however, we saw in a vision of the yield curve this week ——. we had an inverted yield curve for much of the 90s and in that case it didn't prove to be a predictor of recession. the main factors are at play here other geopolitical tensions between the us and china, we seem to be escalating as opposed to dying down, and a lot of potential other trade shocks including disorderly brexit, japan

which has the world ‘s third—largest economy, there is a tax rise been planned for october, there are a lot of factors in the real economy that are being affected in this version of the yield curve. we have to leave it there but thank you very much, nice to see you. the chinese consumer is alive and kicking. that's the message analysts are taking from the healthy results posted by the ecommerce giant alibaba. let's cross to our asia business hub — and rico hizon. good morning to you. a bit of negative news, we're some positive develop in terms of earnings. it is more than doubling net profit, despite the saturated e—commerce market in the economy that has been weakened by the us — china conflict. this is the last before the

billionaire founder steps down as chairman next month, it was bruised by the company ‘s expansion in unprofitable businesses like food delivery and cloud computing services. it is like amazon, ebay, paypal and twitter rolled into one and they increase revenues by a lot compared to the same period in 2018. in that feed the estimates. with a two—thirds market share and they continue to grow. strength to strength. a private financial investigator who flagged warnings about bernard madoff‘s $65 billion ponzi scheme is now targeting one of america's blue chip companies. harry markopolos has claimed that general electric is hiding an accounting scandal, sending its shares tumbling. ge strenuously denies the claims. samira hussain has

more from new york. this man causes of a forensic —— forensic accountant. his hiding losses in his insurance business. general electric has countered those games: the meritless, misguided and self—serving, speculation. nevertheless, the shares fell by 15% at one point on thursday and it's a clear sign that investors are worried. and they are worried quite possibly because of the source of information. as a track record of highlighting financial misdeeds, most recently he was the whistleblower who uncovered a $65 million scheme. the largest case of financial fraud million scheme. the largest case of financialfraud in million scheme. the largest case of financial fraud in american million scheme. the largest case of financialfraud in american history. this comes at a time where the profitability has ta ken this comes at a time where the profitability has taken a massive hit. thus jed profitability has taken a massive hit. thusjed was dropped from the dow 100 and had to lay off hundreds

of employees. now let's brief you on some other business stories. the world trade organisation has ruled against us duties imposed on a range of chinese imports, effectively giving beijing a green light to seek compensation. washington imposed the duties after it accused beijing of paying illegal subsidies to chinese firms. the wto said the americans were in the wrong — but washington says it does not accept the ruling. richard branson‘s virgin galactic, says the world's first specifically designed commercial spaceport is now operationally functional. the base is called spaceport america and situated in new mexico. more than 600 people have already paid deposits totalling 80 million dollars to secure their tickets on the first space flights from the complex.

let's have a look at the markets. certainly negative yields on the markets which are forcing investors into risky positions and into positions like gold and some other save heaven as —— assets. the national grid has the end of the day to send a report of the power grid outage, it's unlikely to offer much inside into our critical infrastructure was about the affected. transit stops, presents left stranded and railway stations ran chaos stop nearly1 million homes are plunged into darkness

across the country and traffic control systems stopped working as well. national grid says the power system where there was exceptional. today's initial report is expected to provide more detail about exactly what happened and when. we already know what triggered the blackout. first the power station in bedfordshire developed a problem and disconnect itself from the grid. at the same time, a wind farm in the north sea went off—line. that created instability in the grid and triggered an automatic 5% cut in supplies. within seven minutes new sources of power have been brought in on the system is running normally again. across the country disruption lasted for hours. we want to know why the knock—on effects was so severe and by critical infrastructure such as railways and hospitals like this in ipswich lost power. normally the supplies are protected. some experts believe the growth of renewable energy sources

has made the electricity grid mode difficult to manage. critics and lack of investment has left more vulnerable to serious value. today's orders on those that you provide complaints of answers. investigations including a separate government enquiry will take weeks. answers will eventually be needed because it clear that something went wrong. for more on that story, we will have your breakfast is coming up at six o'clock. the latest headlines for you. israel has barred to us congresswoman from entering the country, it's a move that has been encouraged by president trump. the democrats who have criticised policy towards the

palestinians, they have been denied entry because of the support for the boycott of the country. north korea has fired two projectiles into the sea. it's the sixth, weapons test in less than a month. the launches happened as north korean authorities released a strongly worded statement saying it had no intention of sitting down for talks with south korea again. now it's time to look at the stories that are making the headlines in the media across the world. we begin with the guardian newspaper. one of many uk papers leading with a push by the labour opposition leaderjeremy corbyn — to oust borisjohnson — to prevent a no—deal brexit. in the financial times this morning, a warning from china's ambassador to the uk that beijing is ready to use its full military power to quell the ongoing pro—democracy protests. to the new york times, more on israel's ban on two american democratic congresswomen who planned to visit the occupied west bank.

a move which was encouraged by us president — donald trump. in the arab news, climate experts warn the gulf could become unliveable with rising temperature and humidity levels. and, in the times — the universities offering school—leavers cash incentives as part of their recruitment drive. let's start with the story that is in the guardian. it's a tricky one. we dog about this earlier, about what to do if you don't support no deal brexit was up it is the default at the moment on the 31st of october in britain. you are stuck between a

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