you're watching bbc news at 9 with me, carrie gracie. the headlines... downing street warns conservative mps to back borisjohnson or face the sack, ahead of a critical week at westminster. potential tory rebels are told they will "destroy" boris johnson's negotiating position, if they support a move to block a no—deal brexit. what we want to see is all conservative mps rallying behind him this week, making sure he has the best opportunity to deliver on that commitment. it is obviously a particularly confrontational approach and i think designed, frankly, to realign the conservative party, to transform the conservative party very much in the direction of a brexit party.

hurricane dorian smashes into the bahamas with winds of up to 180 miles an hour, causing massive damage and severe flooding. part of it is already underwater. and some areas, you cannot tell the difference as to the beginning of the street versus where the ocean begins. no end in sight for hong kong's political crisis. after a weekend of clashes, hundreds of secondary school pupils are taking part in pro—democracy demonstrations. as japan ramps up its commercial whaling industry, younger generations say they want to watch whales, not eat them. and johanna konta earns another slice of tennis history as she reaches the quarterfinals of the us open, becoming the first british woman to do so since 1983.

good morning and welcome to the bbc news at 9. downing street has warned conservative mps not to rebel against the government by supporting attempts to block a no—deal brexit, or they risk being sacked. it comes ahead of a critical week at westminster, as a cross—party group of mps is planning to introduce legislation to stop the uk leaving the eu without an agreement. tory mps have been told to tow the party line or they face being kicked out of the party or even barred from standing as a tory candidate at the next election. tory whips have told the rebels they will "destroy" boris johnson's negotiating position if they allow no—deal to be taken off the table. so, let's take a look at what's in store for the week ahead. tomorrow, mps return to the commons after summer recess, where legislation to stop no—deal

will be introduced by opposition mps. on wednesday, the bill will be debated in the commons. at midday, borisjohnson will take to the podium for his first pmqs as prime minister. the anti—no deal bill could reach the house of lords on thursday, if it is passed by mps. otherwise, the consideration of the bill could spill into monday. if the bill passed all hurdles, it would become law on monday. our assistant political editor, norman smith, is at westminster this morning. i say thank heavens for norman!m is, honestly, an epic and extraordinary week we are facing the likes of which i don't think i have ever seen at westminster before. we now have a conservative prime minister threatening to boot out some of the party's stalwart,

figures like ken clarke, the longest serving tory mp, philip hammond, former chancellor of the exchequer, other leading lights, if they refused to back him. and he is in effect turning the likely vote on the legislation to stop no deal into a vote of confidence in his government, saying to tory mps, you either back my government and my way on brexit or you will be backing jeremy corbyn and you will be kicked out of the party. just to underline the point, there have been no attem pts the point, there have been no atte m pts to the point, there have been no attempts to win over these tory mps, there are no talks going on to try to woo them and get them on board and indeed, the meeting that had been set up between the rebels and borisjohnson, mrjohnson been set up between the rebels and boris johnson, mrjohnson cancelled that. the view of many of the rebels is that mrjohnson is basically gaming, goading them to defy him in the belief that he can then call a general election and to present himself as boris johnson,

general election and to present himself as borisjohnson, standing on the site a brexit and the people, against a ragtag rabble of remainers and malcontents. this morning we heard from one of those alleged malco nte nts, heard from one of those alleged malcontents, david gauke, who said he thought there was now a 95% chance of no deal unless parliament acted, and he made this accusation against borisjohnson, effectively of trying to change the whole nature of trying to change the whole nature of the tory party. well, i think it is an unusual approach, to put it mildly. after all, there are many conservative mps who voted against the government line on european matters relatively recently and they are now surfing round the cabinet table, not kicked out of the party. it is obviously a particularly confrontational approach and i think designed, frankly, to realign the conservative party, to transform the conservative party, very much in the direction of a brexit party.

there is the accusation, boris johnson is seeking to turn the tory party into the brexit party. team johnson say they have to take this ha rd johnson say they have to take this hard line because if they don't, there is no chance of the eu coughing upa there is no chance of the eu coughing up a revised deal because they will never think borisjohnson is serious about leaving without a deal and that was the argument we heard this morning from the secretary, gavin williamson. what the prime minister, quite understandably, wants to do, is ensure that he delivers on his promise to britain to leave the european union on the slst of october with a deal, and what we want to see is all conservative mps rallying behind him this week, making sure that he has the best opportunity to deliver on that commitment. so, are we heading towards a general

election? hold on, not so fast. because to trigger a general election, under what is known as the fixed term parliament act, which was drawn up to stop the government trying to rush towards an early election, the prime minister as to get a two thirds majority of mps to support that move. in other words, in orderfor boris support that move. in other words, in order for boris johnson support that move. in other words, in order for borisjohnson to trigger a general election, he would need the support of labour and there isa need the support of labour and there is a live debate in labour circles about whether they would actually support a general election. some are saying that they had to box clever, they can't just give saying that they had to box clever, they can'tjust give borisjohnson they can'tjust give borisjohnson the opportunity to hold a general election where he can somehow present us as anti—brexit so there are some suggestions that labour could even abstain in that sort of scenario although this morning, rebecca long—bailey, the shadow cabinet office minister, sounded like the party was still minded to back a general election. of course we want a general election, we have asked for that repeatedly for a number of weeks and months now because we need

to get rid of a conservative government that is doing untold damage, notjust in relation to brexit but to normal people's lives right across the country. this opens up the bizarre possibility that, were labour not to back a general election, then mr johnson could almost be barricaded in downing street byjeremy corbyn, unable to call a general election because labour won't support it. we are in truly extraordinary, surreal times where we are seeing things, frankly, which we have never seen before in westminster. thank you, norman. we'll be answering your questions about what could happen this week and over tht next few months in a bbc ask this. annita mcveigh will be joined by alex de ruyter from the centre for brexit studies live from birmingham at 2:30pm this afternoon. so, please do get in touch with whatever questions you might have. the contact details are on your screen now.

the most powerful storm to hit the bahamas since records began has torn roofs from buildings, and caused severe flooding. there are reports of category five hurricane dorian battering the area with winds of up to 180 mph. the us states of florida, georgia, north and south carolina have all declared states of emergency in advance of it making landfall there. the hurricane research division of the us government has release these pictures from inside the eye of the storm, which is currently only moving at about five miles per hour, adding to the devastation on the ground. gareth barlow reports. high winds and high waves as hurricane dorian began to hit the bahamas. the low—lying islands are being pummelled by the storm, the strongest ever recorded to hit the area. parts of it are already underwater, and some areas, you cannot tell the difference as to the beginning of the street versus where the ocean begins.

and they have not yet been hit by the brunt of the storm. residents of grand bahama have been ordered to evacuate amid forecasts of a life—threatening storm surge. despite its devastatingly strong winds, dorian is slowly crawling across the ocean, exposing communities to hours of ferocious winds and rain. in the united states, people in the storm's path are preparing for the worst, with evacuation orders in place, the national guard deployed, and even inmates helping to fill sandbags. the strength of this storm cannot be underestimated. we will see tropical storm force winds within the next 48 hours. the national hurricane center reports dorian could really stall over the bahamas. across the region, people are doing all they can to weather the storm.

but the harsh reality is, with such power, devastation is a very real prospect. gareth barlow, bbc news. let's go to florida now and speak to cbs news reporter hilary lane who is following the story there. obviously it is the middle of night with you but you can see some wind behind you and residents must be worrying about the pictures they have been seeing from grand bahama. yes, there are a lot of scary pictures coming out of the bahamas. it touched down as a powerful category five storm and you can see boats out of the water on roads, homes levelled and the concern is shifting towards the east coast. we are expecting to feel the effect of the storm tonight and here in dayto na the storm tonight and here in daytona beach, florida, tomorrow evening. even if the storm does not make a direct hit and veers right and goes out to sea, we could still see catastrophic winds and damaging storm surge. there has been a lot of preparations but do people feel confident they have done everything

they can? absolutely. firstly, the biggest thing that officials are urging people to do is evacuate if they are in a mandatory evacuation area. nine counties in florida currently a re area. nine counties in florida currently are under such orders, here in daytona beach mandatory evacuations begin at 10am and there are mandatory evacuations in place right now for coastal communities in north carolina and georgia. some people choose not to heed the warnings, they want to stay put and they say they have weathered other hurricanes and have been in their homes and made it through a light and the and take those chances put those people have been filling up gas tanks. we have seen throughout florida, hundreds of cars and people quitting hours for gas with many gas stations completely out —— waiting hours for the other people go to walmart, the big supermarket, to get water and food, stockpiling medicine for a week. even if the storm only lasts a day or two in the area, people could see power outages and

damage that could last for weeks. good luck to you and everyone there and thank you. let's have a closer look atjust how dangerous this storm is, and how bad it might get for the people the south—eastern states of america in the coming days. matt taylor is here from bbc weather. thank you for coming down. what is your take right now? if we start with the tiny bit of good news, it has already seen its peak strength which was yesterday as it went across the abaco islands in the bahamas. that circle is the centre, the eye of the storm and the strongest winds are wrapped around it. we were talking about 220 kph, unimaginable, and causing untold damage with reports yet to come in. this was the latest one and the eye is now over grand bahama. there are still rains and winds up around 170

kph. —— 170 mph. the storm has slowed down to two miles an hour at which prolongs the impact. slowed down to two miles an hour at which prolongs the impactm slowed down to two miles an hour at which prolongs the impact. it is paradoxical, you would think if it was slowing down that it would be better but it is the country? exactly, it means the same areas are getting pummelled for longer durations by the devastating winds and also that the rain is relentless. we could see up to eight months worth of rain in a few days in the bahamas. no wonder florida is concerned, it is only about 120 miles from the east coast. it could keep along that line, keeping the worst of the winds and the heaviest rain off short which is good news in some respects, but the wider: you can see is an indication of uncertainty. —— the wider cone,. it could still make sudden change and go into florida or the carolinas and

you could have damaging winds and storm surge and of course terrible swell on the coasts. and one thing that puzzles me, we get such detailed and generally accurate forecasting now from the professionals but why is it that this area a possible targeting is so wide? why don't we know exactly where it's going to hit? this is a lwa ys where it's going to hit? this is always linked to tropical storms and hurricanes, you get these cones of uncertainty, because they are so massive and slight changes in the atmosphere can turn them slightly and then they can have a devastating effect so it's almost a pre—warning, keep your eyes on the focus because things can change and get a lot worse than you imagined. thank you for coming down tell us more later. the headlines on bbc news... downing street warns conservative mps to back borisjohnson, or face the sack, ahead of a critical week at westminster. hurricane dorian smashes into the bahamas with winds of up to 180 miles an hour, causing massive damage and severe flooding.

no end in sight for hong kong's political crisis. after a weekend of clashes, hundreds of secondary school pupils are taking part in pro—democracy demonstrations. in support of a huge win forjohanna konta as she makes the us "the finals. defending men's champion novak djokovic is out, forced to withdraw with a shoulder injury. —— the us open quarterfinals. the points were shared in a thrilling north london derby as spurs went 2—0 up north london derby as spurs went 2—0 up before arsenal fought back to draw. charles leclerc dedicated his first win in formula 1 to the formula to drive who died in a crash on saturday and tributes were paid to him throughout the belgian grand prix yesterday. i will have more on all of those stories later in the hour.

secondary school pupils and students in hong kong have been taking part in the latest stage of months of pro—democracy protests. hundreds have joined a boycott of classes, with some forming human chains outside schools on the first day of the new academic term. but a call for a two—day general strike appears to have drawn little support. stephen mcdonell is our correspondent in hong kong and hejoins us now. tell us about the school students are first of all. students, both university and high school students, have boycotted classes today. at the universities, it was the first week back for the semester and they boycotted classes and in the high schools, the stu d e nts and in the high schools, the students are standing outside the school buildings, joining hands in a so—called human chain. they are coming under some pressure from the government, as are the schools, for

allowing them to do this, but i don't quite see how you can stop them if you are the school. this is pa rt them if you are the school. this is part of a broader call for strike action today. given the weather, the driving rain and strong winds that have been battering hong kong, it is ha rd to have been battering hong kong, it is hard to gauge how many people have supported this strike because there are shops and small businesses closed, nurses and other hospital staff at some hospitals have had protests at their workplace. but, generally speaking, it is a more peaceful here in the city, when you compare it to the violent clashes we saw on saturday and the chaos at the airport on sunday when transport connections to the airport were shut down and there was traffic gridlock leading to the airport and protesters were successfully able to disrupt operations there. this crisis keeps moving on in hong kong

and, as the activists find new ways to disrupt the city, they are also being arrested in bigger numbers and some appeared in court today. they we re some appeared in court today. they were activists who were caught on saturday night and they have been charged with rioting. if found guilty, that could mean up to ten yea rs guilty, that could mean up to ten years in prison. the authorities are trying to race in, grab in a protest is and arrest and charge enough of them that it will take the heat out of this movement but it isn't stopping people from turning out at the moment. given that we must be over a thousand arrested since the beginning of the crisis started early in june. we are currently looking at the pictures of students sitting on the grass, boycotting classes. picking up on what you said about the arrests of protesters, i ta ke about the arrests of protesters, i take it that there is no suggestion the authorities will start arresting those boycotting classes because obviously that would again ratchet

up obviously that would again ratchet up the tension another notch. last friday, this backfired on them when the police picked up these key figures in the pro—democracy movement, arresting and charging some of them for illegal assembly. it made people angry and made more stu d e nts it made people angry and made more students come out and protest, at times in quite a violent way. amongst those arrested have been students, even high school students, some as young as 12 or 13 years old. i think itjust by gathering today, i don't see people will be detained for that. it is more when you are getting involved in throwing petrol bombs and bricks at police and blocking roads and tunnels, throwing debris onto train lines, shutting down subways effectively. this is

the sort of disruption we saw on the weekend and that is what tends to get people arrested here. there are now over a thousand people who have been arrested so it will start to clog up the courts here in hong kong but it is not killing this movement. people still seem to turn out despite the threats are being charged, despite the possibility of them being injured with so many projectiles being fired in the other direction by the police. the crisis keeps going, even though we are three months into it. thank you for joining us. new teachers in england could be in line for a £6,000 pay rise under new government plans. unions say the increase is long overdue and essential to attract enough graduates into the profession and stop experienced teachers from leaving. the boss of sports direct, mike ashley, is funding a legal challenge in the high court to the rescue plans for debenhams. the action has been brought by one

of the retailer's landlords and, if successful, could derail the restructuring of the business. last month, after more than 33 years, japan resumed catching whales for profit, in defiance of international criticism. for some in the country, this is a tradition that goes back centuries. but there's a growing number of people who say hunting whales is becoming outdated and there's a new way to make money from whales, as rupert wingfield—hayes reports. a few hours ago, this 10—metre long whale was harpooned off the pacific coast of japan. now, it is being hauled ashore to a little whaling town. immediately, a team gets to work butchering the 6—ton animal.

the whalers here are delighted that after 33 years, they are free to hunt again. whaling is a hugely emotive issue but here injapan, many people genuinely do not understand the outside world's obsession with them catching the animals. they have been doing this for centuries. they eat the meat and they do it sustainably. this is a traditional part of japanese culture. it is also true that these people lining up to buy the meat are a tiny, ageing minority. this year, japanese whalers will catch just 227 animals. even the most ardent whaling supporters say the industry can't make money. definitely not. how they can make money from 227,

and sooner or later, maybe in five or ten years, my best guess would be no more whaling. but there are other ways to make money from whales. 1,000 kilometres south of tokyo lie some remote islands. this is where the humpbacks come to breed and give birth. and this is where whale watching in japan began. this is naomi, and she is going to put the hydrophone down into the water here and we're going to see if we can hear the whales calling. squeaking and clucking. that is the sound of the whales calling to each other. they're a little far away, but — there you go... but what an amazing sound!

for the yamamoto family, this has been a life—changing experience. translation: when i saw the whales today, i thought they are so beautiful. so it is very hard for me to even think about catching and eating them. far to the north, japan's whaling fleet is setting sail. but here, the whales are safe and the tourists can marvel at these graceful giants of the deep. todayis today is the day that the whalers go out. rupertjoins me now from kushiro. what are they actually going to hunt? i am in the far north ofjapan and behind meat you might be able to see these whaling boats that have been out today, five of them here which left at 5am and during the day we have seen four of the five bring

whales ashore, minky wails about seven metres long and they have caught four off them —— minky whales. they will continue whaling here for the rest of the month, they have that quote which i mentioned of 227 that the japanese government have said they can catch injapanese waters this season —— that quota. they have said that they intend to carry on hunting every day until they have fulfilled that quota. we saw in your report that it is now controversial with some people in japan itself so is this a huge story there? it is not a huge story, it was when they pulled out of the international whaling commission earlier this year and said that japan would return to commercial whale hunting. that is controversial around the world and also here in japan with some people say it is a foolish thing for them to do and it

has brought more opprobrium onto japan and makes them look like they have gone rogue and outside the international system of rules but there are many people here in communities like this who say that it is great pulled the iwc basically said that whaling would be banned forever, this is part of our livelihood and all we could do was withdraw and go back to it. the strange thing is, if you ask most japanese people what they think about whaling, most don't have an opinion. most people do not eat the meat, it is only a tiny minority who continue to do so and yet culturally there are people here who feel it is pa rt there are people here who feel it is part of japanese culture and we will not be dictated to by foreigners as to what we do or don't eat. and i supposed to complete the story, we should mention they will only be fishing for wales in japanese waters, not going to the antarctic where it is effectively remaining a

whale sanctuary. that's a very important point. this looks like a defeat for conservation and, i suppose it is injapanese waters but overall there is an upside for the people who are opposed to whaling around the world and that is that japan will no longer send its fleet to the antarctic in the winter, or rather in the summer down there, which it has been doing for so—called scientific whaling since the ban went into effect in the 19805. the ban went into effect in the 1980s. countries like australia and new zealand i think can now declare victory and say that the antarctic is safe for the whales. in a moment the weather but first let's here's victoria derbyshire with what she's got coming up in her programme at ten .we . we will keep facts about the controversial and outsiders lessons which teach primary school children

about relationships including same sex relationships. we have turned our studio into a classroom and we have a head teacher to teach an actual lesson. dojoin us have a head teacher to teach an actual lesson. do join us at ten o'clock on bbc two, the bbc news channel and online. now it's time for a look at the weather with elizabeth rizzini. hello, good morning. it's going to be a rather wet day today towards north—western areas of the british isles but drier and brighterfurther south and east. this weather front is pushing into north—western areas of scotland and northern ireland, moving eastwards. some of the rain will turn out to be quite heavy at times but it is a drier picture further south. the best of the sunshine in south—eastern areas of england and east anglia but here it will cloud over. the mist and cloud and drizzle persists in western—facing coasts. temperatures slightly higher than they were yesterday. overnight tonight, we will keep the strength of the breeze, the showers continue to push eastwards. for many of us, it will be a drier night ahead. cloudier and milder than it was last night. temperatures in double figures across the board as we start tomorrow.

tomorrow, some mist and hill fog persisting towards western—faci ng coasts. again, it is a north—west south—east split. there will be some showers towards parts of scotland, northern ireland, into northern england as well. the best of the dry and bright weather towards the south—east.

hello this is bbc news. the headlines... downing street warns conservative mps to back borisjohnson or face the sack, ahead of a critical week at westminster. potential tory rebels are told they will "destroy" boris johnson's negotiating position if they support a move to block a no—deal brexit. what we want to see is all conservative mps welling behind him this week, making sure that he has the best opportunity to deliver on that commitment. it is obviously a

confrontational approach, and i think designed, frankly, to realign the conservative party, to transform the conservative party, to transform the conservative party very much in the conservative party very much in the direction of a brexit party. hurricane dorian smashes into the bahamas with winds of up to 180mph, causing massive damage and severe flooding. parts of it is already underwater, and some areas, you cannot tell the difference as to the beginning of the street versus where the ocean begins. no end in sight for hong kong's political crisis. after a weekend of clashes, hundreds of secondary school pupils are taking part in pro—democracy demonstrations. asjapan ramps up its commercial whaling industry, younger generations say they want to watch whales — not eat them.

and now we are going over to westminster where former prime minister tony blair is expected to give a speech, and he is expected to warn about falling into what he will call an elephant trap about calling for a general election... the national interest before self—interest. we are numb to the state of our politics, what is happening is shocking, responsible and dangerous. our government is ripping britain out of the european union, by common acceptance, the most important change in this country's affairs since1945, in most important change in this country's affairs since 1945, in the most country's affairs since1945, in the most extreme form of brexit imaginable, without an agreement in place, a complicated network of political and commercial arrangements we have built over decades of european membership, and it is doing so without the consent of parliament, but with a deliberate

manoeuvre to curtail it, and without the express consent of the british people, relying instead on a one—off plebiscite now over three years ago, in which not for one moment was it suggested by those advocating brexit that no deal would be the outcome. parliament, the capstone of our democracy, is held up to ridicule as the enemy of the very people who elected it. not once have our nation's leadership explained to the public why brexit has been so difficult to resolve, which is because there were at least three different versions of it, hard, soft, a no deal, and all are vastly different in their replications. rather, it has suited them to ride a wave of, just do it, emotion, born of public impatience. you're bored

of public impatience. you're bored of brexit, i'm board of brexit, we allare, of brexit, i'm board of brexit, we all are, but no serious political leader would suggest that we should ta ke leader would suggest that we should take a decision of this magnitude by an inflection of patience. the obvious way to resolve brexit was by setting out the different forms of it, making parliament to choose, and if they can't, asking the people to have the final say. this has never been tried by government in a structured way, and is now dismissed asa structured way, and is now dismissed as a ploy of obstruction when it remains the only plan of reason. so, we are poised to leave europe on 315t october with no deal, and no idea, frankly, of what it really means. difficult, damaging or disastrous? but many believe it will bea disastrous? but many believe it will be a disaster, not only economically, but in areas like security. and i ask, does no—one presently in government, particularly those cabinet members

who used to protest against the irresponsible to such a course, understand the consequence of doing this in circumstances where a large pa rt of this in circumstances where a large part of the country will regard this outcome as a legitimate? democracy depends on a shared sense of legitimacy in decision—making. legitimacy is not the same as agreement in government, governments do things people dislike, but outside of the political fringes, most people accept their right to do them. this is now a crisis of legitimacy. yet no—one in government even pretends to address these anxieties. and we are a riven nation, one part of the people is enraged brexit is being thwarted, the other enraged by the manner it is being done. each side accuses the other of being antidemocratic and deception and destruction of a faith

in politics. people versus parliament, parliament versus government, people versus people. elements threaten to take to the street, never a good way to decide anything. brexit has become so bitter, in my view because brexit is not simply about a decision to leave the eu. it is about culture identity, values and generation. the essenceis identity, values and generation. the essence is not about trade, it is about who we are as a nation in the zist about who we are as a nation in the 215t century. normally, questions of identity play out over time, by evolution, or by staggered points of development in successive elections. but the holding of the referendum turned this into a moment of revolution. it forced us to confront a division perhaps better

unconfronted. on the one side are those who feel britain as they know it is being cast aside, the things they like about britain disappearing, and in their place, petty correctness, political bureaucratic exemptions exam fired by europe, and above all, allegiance to the god of multiculturalism at the expense of our own culture. this pa rt of the expense of our own culture. this part of britain imagines a parallel with the second world war, a period of our history which rightly makes us of our history which rightly makes us proud. read the speeches of the brexiteers and they are replete with references to this glory. but it casts a long shadow over the british psyche. it creates a longing to live the moment again, to see each new circumstance through the lens of its narrative, a life and death struggle between us and those who would harm us, where against all odds, we triumph, a series of darkest hours

from which we emerge to the sunlit uplands. those of us on the other side think, if there is a parallel with world war ii, it is the need to stand firm when you're doing what you believe to be right for the country, even when it is unpopular. we look at europe today and see 17 years of peace and relative turbidity. we see this crisis as one visited upon ourselves by ourselves, a folly of nostalgia. we celebrate our cultural diversity. —— a folly of nostalgia. we celebrate our cultural diversity. — — relative stability. we revere but don't dwell on britain's past or see it as the only point of reference for our future. we're comfortable with a secondary european identity, alongside our primary british one. this profound cultural difference was this profound cultural difference was also part of what we decided in june 2016, it is a big decision to ta ke

june 2016, it is a big decision to take on one day, in one vote. since borisjohnson has become prime minister, everything has changed and nothing has changed. the mood has changed, radically. he has energy and strategy, to cajole tory mps into not tying his hands because i deal with europe is possible, to cajole europe by the threat he is serious about no deal, and if both fail, to blame parliament and the eu for their intransigence. our government has been taken over by a gang of adventurers. but don't underestimate the appeal of adventure after a long period of paralysis. the contrast with theresa may is in stark. and many are prepared, like him, to believe that with belief, it can be done, it will end the word brexit will vanish into history. we can get on with our lives. so, their strategy has been to go at it full tilt, whipped on by

the brexit press and a vibrant social media campaign, buoyed by the weakness of the opposition, spending pledges rolling off the conveyor belt, as if it is only brexit which has liberated us from austerity. posing as the saviours of the people, ready to steamroller over the recalcitrant, out of touch elite. however, this public sentiment, like the entire johnson premiership, is based on an illusion, a national example of what we all know from our personal life lessons, which is that decisions based on fatigue and desperation are usually wrong, and that belief can give you the courage to take a risk, but it cannot alter the objective facts as to what the risk is. this is where nothing has changed. the long—term impact of the brexit decision is unaltered. the political consequence of brexit is to diminish

us consequence of brexit is to diminish us globally. within a relatively short space of time, the world will evolve into a combination of giant, there's regional blocks. the giants will be the usa, china and probably india. the blocs will come together to achieve collectively what it is impossible to achieve individually, to sit at the top table of power politics in global terms. this is the rationale for europe, not peace but power, and in time, in south—east asia, asean, in south america, and central asia the block formed around russia, the african union... britain should retain its strong and special relationship with the united states but its natural places with europe. for reasons of history, culture, commerce, values and of course, geography. it is quicker now to go by train to paris than newcastle. economic soft brexit

have not changed. we exit our largest trading market and the largest trading market and the largest commercial market in the world in a manner no modern developed country has contemplated, let alone done before. exit is based ona let alone done before. exit is based on a great myth, that europe controls our laws. in fact, virtually any decision that affects the practical life of the british people is decided not in brussels but here in britain. the nhs, education, crime, taxes, welfare, pensions, defence. even on immigration other than freedom of movement within europe, britain decides british immigration policy. so, the brexiteers were driven to construct their case around the area where, as the settled policy of successive governments, we have indeed pulled our lawmaking, that is the single market and the customs

union. every time brexiteers are challenged on specifically why it is so important to our identity to exit europe, they are then obliged to resort to bizarre examples, as with borisjohnson and resort to bizarre examples, as with boris johnson and truck windows, if you remember, when resigning as foreign secretary. and melton mowbray pork pies, when advocating for the supremacy of american trade deals. these would be trivial even if true, and as it turns out they are both trivial and—led trivial. but as a result we are torn between the self—evident truth that exiting such a relationship is bound to be painful and the necessity of satisfying the brexiteer myth that we must exit to preserve british identity. thus, we ended up with the unobtainable cake and eating strategy. and then we have the added dimension of the irish border, where naturally, the accepted need to keep

the border open conflicts with the fa ct the border open conflicts with the fact that for the first time, ireland and the uk will not be in the same economic or political status regarding europe. the backstop is merely the expression of this dilemma, because brexit is really a choice, not a negotiation. if we want out of the single market and customs union, fine, but then we will have a hard border. if we want an open border, we stay connected to the european system. the latest attempt at a negotiation as far as we know simply underscores this. the new prime minister is apparently offering europe regulatory in certain areas, which will mean effectively abiding by europe's rules overseen by the ecj. this is a slimmer version of the theresa may deal presented at chequers which he resigned over. he may succeed in this negotiation but i doubt it, because ultimately, europe may change the form of the concept behind the backstop, but not the concept itself. in which case, we

bump up against something else which hasn't changed, the impact of no deal. no amount of self—belief can alter its reality. no deal is presented also as the end of brexit. on the contrary, it's not the end. it's a fresh beginning, because then we will be obliged to negotiate with europe a new trade deal, but with little or no negotiating leveraged. and of course, europe wants to avoid no deal, and the irish particularly will be badly damaged by it, something of which we should be ashamed, given all the extraordinary efforts of so many to lay to rest the gusts of the often savage passed between british & irish cup but the principal damage will be to ourselves, and we misunderstand european politics, brexit is our daily news curse, but not theirs. germany has its own problems, france and italy their own. it is vexing

for them, it is paramount for us. so, this is a reckless path, but there is a strategy behind it, and we must be equally strategic in opposing it. and we cannot let the big arguments be lost in the minutiae of parliamentary process, particularly this week. first, we must constantly debunk the notion that the june 2016 referendum is a mandate for a no—deal brexit. feeble attempts to suggest it is have foundered on the overwhelming evidence that on the contrary, brexiteers continually stated there would be a deal, and that it would be easy. second, therefore, if the government policy is to come out with no deal, then the mandate to do it should come either from parliament or the people. third, and this is the crux, if parliament cannot agree, then the right way to

consult the people is not through a general election, but through a referendum. that means as mp5 from different parties have agreed that there should not be a motion of no confidence, but rather legislation preventing no deal, should the government seek an election, it should be refused in favour of a referendum. now, i know it is counterintuitive for opposition parties to refuse an election, but in this exceptional case, it is vital they do so, as a matter of principle, until brexit is resolved. brexit is an issue which stands on its own, was originally decided on its own, was originally decided on its own, was originally decided on its own, and should be reconsidered on its own. the brexiteers are laying a trap, to seem as if pushed into an election whilst actively preparing for one. and they do this because they know there are two issues in british politics, not one. one is brexit, the other is the

corbyn leadership. it is the interplay between these two issues that has reshaped and defined british politics over the past 3—4 years. borisjohnson knows that if no—deal brexit stands on its own as a proposition, it might well fail. but if he mixes it up with the brexit question and the corbyn question together in a general election, he could succeed. despite a majority being against a no—deal brexit, because some may fear a corbyn premiership more. the labour leader could be similarly tempted. without brexit, winning an election is hard, but with it in the mix, especially as no deal, he may gain support from people who otherwise would not entertain his premiership. in backing away from the idea of himself as a caretaker prime minister, jeremy corbyn has behaved responsibly, and if he continues to

put country first, it will benefit the country and himself. he can now play a decisive role in how brexit develops. but he should see an election before brexit is decided as the elephant trap that it is. after brexit is resolved, an immediate election is right and necessary, and if labour approaches the resolution of brexit with a spirit of strategic co—operation that it has shown recently, it will emerge with its standing and even that of its leadership greatly enhanced. so, if the government tries to force an election now, labour should vote against it. the challenge of such an election is brutally clear, and leave aside for a moment what is fairand unfair — leave aside for a moment what is fair and unfair — no opposition leader or... has won an election. the 2017 result has inoculated the labour party against a realistic

assessment of where it stands. to be sure, an election is a risk that the tories. each tory candidate will have to sign up to no deal. the brexit party is a one—man, unpredictable band. scotland will be... but my bet is the brexit party will collapse. the labour party at present will struggle, a resurgent lib dems will do well but not well enough to govern. the opposition vote, therefore, is going to split. and underour vote, therefore, is going to split. and under our system, that delivers a comfortable tory majority. when you get to real world politics, this will be presented as, do you want borisjohnson will be presented as, do you want boris johnson delivering will be presented as, do you want borisjohnson delivering brexit plus a popular programme, or do you want to turn the country, its economy and security over to jeremy corbyn and his small group of supporters from the far left? the parliamentary tactics are clear. seize the agenda.

but the strategic goal must be that if it is the people who are called upon to break the deadlock, they should be asked to do so directly, on the specific issue, not in an election to choose a government. so, should it come to an election, then we will be obliged to try to replicate that well orchestrated co—operation which has been so remarkable in parliament across tribal boundaries. but in the much more complicated setting of an election, in order to mobilise the potential majority in the country against no deal. there is a will to do this, but the way is full of obstacles, but we would have to try. in conclusion, return to what is at sta ke. in conclusion, return to what is at stake. brexit is the answer to none of britain's challenges. consider all the announcements boris johnson is making. not one of them depends

on britain leaving the eu. brexit is a gigantic destruction. it will cause slow but significant damage to our economy, it is a self—inflicted diminution of our geopolitical relevance. it is opposed by the overwhelming majority of the younger generation, who nonetheless will live with its consequences. and no—deal brexit poses a genuine threat to the union of the united kingdom. this is a time of genuine national peril. to their credit, many politicians across all parties have been willing to put aside normal politics to meet this abnormal challenge in these abnormal times. they should stay on this path. an intelligent and rational way to brexit resolution can still be found. but my point this morning is that it requires, as ever in politics, the alliance of principle

with strategy. applause so, we werejust applause so, we were just seeing if he was going to take questions, i'm not sure, let's find out what they are going to do next. what makes it illegitimate... ? going to do next. what makes it illegitimate. . . ? yes, going to do next. what makes it illegitimate...? yes, i think it going to do next. what makes it illegitimate. . . ? yes, i think it is one of the factors, alongside the fa ct one of the factors, alongside the fact that i don't think you can argue thatjune 2016 was at least a clear mandate for no deal. so, as a result of that, the problem that you have got is that, supposing we crash out on 31st october with no deal because parliament has been circumvented, there has been no reference back to the people, i think a large part of the country will think this is not a legitimate way to have decided this. and if, by the way my even a part of the warnings over no deal, including by

the government, internal to the government, turn out to be right, i think you will have an enormous amount of anger in the country. so, yes, i think this is one aspect which undermines the legitimacy, because in the end, if the government has a policy of no deal exit, then of course it should put it to parliament. and if parliament rejects it, it will have to decide how to resolve it. what you say to the argument that parliament has had quite a lot of goes at this and has not cove red quite a lot of goes at this and has not covered itself in glory, they voted for article 50, they voted for the withdrawal act last year, they woke up, i think we would argue at the 156, quite late to the difficulties that they would face in trying to stop no deal, and that has been the story of the summer? and you often hear this from government ministers, there was someone on the tv the other day, saying, they have had three years, debating it every day, why do they need more time? welcome they have devoted no deal and they have come out by a large

majority against it. so they can't say, the policy they are now putting forward is a policy which has been expressly rejected by parliament, or no deal, there is no doubt where parliament stands at the moment. and this is the real problem with the whole brexit business, at the very beginning, what the government should have done... this is going back to autumn of 2016, is, it should have set out the brexit options. because there are different options, that's wired has been difficult for parliament to resolve it. you can have a soft brexit, you stay connected to the european comic system but you are out of the political system. you can have a ha rd political system. you can have a hard brexit, which is, you come out of the economic and the political arrangements of the eu, but you do so asa arrangements of the eu, but you do so as a result of the deal and you go to so as a result of the deal and you gotoa so as a result of the deal and you go to a canada style free trade agreement, or the third option is, you just say, we're going out, we're crashing out without a deal, without. .. crashing out without a deal, without... you could lay all those things out but parliament has not

managed to coalesce for any option at all. so how do you resolve the deadlock? this is why i want to say to people about a referendum, i not ignorant of the sense that many, many people have in the country that the last thing they want is to go back and have another referendum, but i keep saying to people, you get toa but i keep saying to people, you get to a referendum when you exhaust all the other options. and the fact is, what should have happened is, the government should have set out in a structured way, you can have soft brexit, hard brexit, no—deal brexit, and they should have asked parliament to decide, and they never did. and they never did because they have always wanted, for political reasons, the whole thing has been governed by the politics of the conservative party, it has never been governed by a rational analysis is what is really going on. so why did theresa may trigger article 50? when you look at back at it it was a crazy thing to do. why did she do it? because the politics of the tory party m ea nt it? because the politics of the tory party meant she had to prove her

brexit credentials. why did she say coming out of the singer market and the customs union, when when no—one was giving any consideration of that how that lay with your agreed obligation to keep the irish border open? because of the politics. and why is boris johnson open? because of the politics. and why is borisjohnson now going for no deal even though frankly, during the course of the referendum campaign, he was saying, of course there won't no deal, there was will bea there won't no deal, there was will be a deal and it is relatively easy? because of the politics of the tory party. so, the reason we are in this season, the people are being told that it season, the people are being told thatitis season, the people are being told that it is because these people are obstructing them in parliament. but in the end, the reason it has been difficult to resolve is, you never had that structured set of options with parliament coming to make a decision. and if they can't make a decision, then you go back to the people. studio: and there we leave tony blair, in an extraordinary week in the political life of the nation. in what he calls a time of genuine

national peril. lots more coming up on the news channel. right now, we say goodbye to viewers on bbc two.

hello, it's monday, it's ten o'clock, i'm victoria derbyshire and we're live from new broadcasting house. it's a massive week in parliament. some conservative mps are squaring up to their own government as borisjohnson threatens to sack them if they vote against him to block a no—deal brexit. one of them is former justice secretary david gauke, who tells me exclusively that boris johnson didn't tell the truth when he said suspending parliament was nothing to do with brexit. it clearly had a lot to do with brexit. so he lied? well, it's. ..