the prime interesting to see what the prime minister will be saying. he will be talking at that podium, it is being prepared for the prime minister and he will be talking in just a few minutes. you're watching a bbc news special — we're live in downing street where the prime minister, borisjohnson is about to deliver a statement outside number ten as speculation mounts that he's poised to trigger a general election if his government is defeated by mps seeking to stop a no—deal brexit. this afternoon he gathered his ministers for an unscheduled cabinet meeting, as opponents of his brexit strategy prepare to put forward draft legislation to delay the uk's withdrawal. that will be tabled in the commons tomorrow when mps return from their summer recess.

we have had some details on that legislation from hilary benn, who published it, it shows they would seek an extension to brexit of three months so from october the 31st two january the 31st. the prime minister has warned conservative rebels minded to support the bill that, if they do, they face suspension from the parliamentary party. if there where an election which many people think is very close now. effectively there clear as to the mps would be over, so whether they are being given that message in the garden of number ten, we will have to wait and see. we will have to wait and see what —— what the prime

minister says when he comes out of number ten but these are fascinating and momentous political times for borisjohnson himself and momentous political times for boris johnson himself who and momentous political times for borisjohnson himself who has sought to be prime ministerfirst along. these are very crucial days indeed as he effectively prepares to face down parliament or at least the mps in parliament who are rigorously and vigorously opposed to any sort of no—deal brexit. so jessica vigorously opposed to any sort of no—deal brexit. sojessica is our political correspondent, who is watching all of this as it unfolds, and just as we wait for mrjohnson, this is a pivotal moment for the johnson premiership, for boris johnson, the man who always wanted to be prime minister, who has now got thejob to be prime minister, who has now got the job and, you know, potentially for him he could lose thejob if he potentially for him he could lose the job if he calls an election, or if there is an election and he is out injust a

if there is an election and he is out in just a few weeks after having got into number ten. but look at the example of theresa may, of course, who confidently called that snap election back in 2017, when she was doing very well in the polls at that time, and it did not exactly work out for her. she clung to power after that election, having lost the conservative majority, but from that point onwards things really changed for her. and her power was greatly diminished. calling a general election even if your head the polls, is fraught with risk, and borisjohnson would know polls, is fraught with risk, and boris johnson would know this. polls, is fraught with risk, and borisjohnson would know this. i think what is more likely we will hear tonight is probably something along the lines of, look, mps need to back me, they need to not vote for this anti no deal legislation, it will weaken my hand in trying to get a deal at a brussels, but if mps don't back me then perhaps we might be moving into general election territory. that is speculation at this stage, we have to wait and see what boris johnson comes this stage, we have to wait and see what borisjohnson comes out of and says this evening, but as should say

it's a pivotal moment for him. very $0011 it's a pivotal moment for him. very soonin it's a pivotal moment for him. very soon in his premiership, indeed, parliament hasn't even actually begin sitting again this autumn, that happens tomorrow. but obviously downing street have taken the decision tonight that they need to ta ke decision tonight that they need to take the initiative, do amass exercise of trying to conservative mps to get behind the government. but over the summer, as you will be very much aware, there have been a string of announcements, spending announcements, whether it's on things like the nhs, things like recruiting 20,000 more police officers, more money for education, and that's led to a lot of speculation that the government has basically been trying to get itself on an election footing. making what it would see as popular spending announcements, having that agenda in the public mind before holding a general election. so we are not in the situation there were a general election is guaranteed but the likelihood of it has gone up and up

over recent weeks, and i know we have talked about crunch brexit wes and crunch brexit moments time again —— micro brexit weeks and moments time and again over the last few yea rs, time and again over the last few years, but it is shaping up to be an incredibly significant moment. thank you, jessica. borisjohnson, incredibly significant moment. thank you, jessica. boris johnson, we incredibly significant moment. thank you, jessica. borisjohnson, we were expecting to come out at 6pm, a few minutes late, obviously, but we are going to stay on these pictures live from downing street and join our chief political correspondent. we've been seeing pictures from our helicopter of mps in the garden of number ten, tell us a bit about that drinks reception. lucky them! we are out sitting on the floor in downing street. this was a drinks reception that was, i think, planned a while ago actually, the eve of them coming back to parliament, it was going to bea back to parliament, it was going to be a bit later in the evening but it was brought forward. what is

intriguing is that you had a cabinet meeting and then dozens and dozens of conservative mps tripping into number ten, all of them have to hand their phones in and put them into little pigeonhole. —— creeping into number ten. so almost the entire tory party is inside number ten with the door unlocked and no access to their telephones, so we don't know what's going on in there but we do understand the prime minister is due out in about one minute's time and i think what he will do is come out and have a strong message to his own mps to say, if you change the law to try to force me to delay brexit, something that i have said i want to do and that i want to do, then i will call a general election. —— have said i won't to do. five weeks ago, i spoke to you from these steps and said this government was not going to hang around, and that we would not wait until brexit day, to of the 31st, to deliver on the priorities of the british people. —— october the 31st. i am proud to say

that on wednesday, chancellor sajid javid is going to set out the most ambitious spending round for more thana ambitious spending round for more than a decade. i said i wanted to make your streets safer, and that is why we are recruiting another 20,000 police officers. i said i wanted to improve your hospitals and reduce waiting times at your gp, and so we are doing 20 new hospital upgrades in addition to 34 billion more going into the nhs. and i said i wanted every child in this country to have a superb education, and that's why i announced last week that we are levelling up funding across the country and spending much more next yearin country and spending much more next year in both primary and secondary schools. and it's to push for this agenda on these and many other fronts that we need a queen's speech in october, while leaving due time to debate brexit and other matters. and as we come to that brexit

deadline, i am encouraged by the progress we're making. in the last few weeks, the chances of a deal have been rising, i believe, for three reasons. they can see that we wa nt three reasons. they can see that we want a deal. they can see that we have a clear vision for our future relationship with the eu, something that has not always perhaps been the case. and they can see that we are utterly determined to strengthen our position by getting ready to come out, regardless, come what may. but if there's one thing that can hold us if there's one thing that can hold us back in these talks, it is the sense in brussels that mps may find some way to cancel the referendum. or that tomorrow, mps will vote with jeremy corbyn for yet another pointless delay. i don't think they will, i hope that they won't. but if they do, they will plainly chop the

legs out from under the uk position and make any further negotiation absolutely impossible. and so i say, to show our friends in brussels that we are united in our purpose, mps should vote with the government against corbyn's pointless delay. i wa nt against corbyn's pointless delay. i want everybody to know there are no circumstances in which i will ask brussels to delay. we are leaving on the 31st of october, no ifs, or buts. we will not accept any attempt to go back on our promises or script that referendum. and i'm and fortified with that conviction, i believe we will get a deal at that crucial summit in october. —— armed and fortified. a deal that parliament will certainly be able to scrutinise. and in the meantime,

let's let our negotiators get on with their work without that sort of damocles over their necks and without an election, without an election, i don't want an election, you don't want an election. let's get on with the people'sagenda, fighting crime, improving the nhs, boosting schools, cutting the costs of living, unlocking talent and opportunity across the entire united kingdom with infrastructure, education and technology. it is a massive agenda. let's come together and get it done and let's get brexit done. by october the 31st. thank you very much. so, the prime minister saying, let's get this done. there are no circumstances in which he will ask brussels for a delay. also saying he doesn't want an election

but calling on mp5, not to, as he put it, chop the legs from underneath the uk's negotiating position. these are demonstrators, by the way, outside downing street. you can probably hear them quite loudly as the prime minister was speaking there. let's go to our chief political correspondent, what do you make of the prime minster‘s address? his match is -- message is very much to his own mps, basically saying, do you really want to go into the voting lobbies withjeremy corbyn and undermine the uk's negotiations, that is how he sees it. he thinks the only way the uk is going to get any kind of concession out of the eu and any kind of new deal that he would find acceptable and that could get through parliament is if the eu thinks that the uk is serious about no deal. and, of course, if mps tomorrow or the next day make him go and ask for another delay, then he thinks that

that leverages taken away from him. he made it very clear that that he would not be willing to go to the eu and ask for another delay. i think that's not a surprise to most people, i don't think politically there is any way he could do that. he would be finished politically. and so the implication there is, if you do this, then i want to do it andi you do this, then i want to do it and i think the implication there is he would ask for there to be a general election vote and put down later this week. —— if you do this, i will not do that. so it's a last—minute plea to many mps who are inside number ten at the moment, having a drinks party, and i think thatis having a drinks party, and i think that is what his message is going to be, very clearly, to them. and as we see, the lactone being taken back into number11, see, the lactone being taken back into number 11, actually, aspect of the lactone being taken back and the protesters outside, what you make about what he was saying of the chance of a deal with brussels

rising? —— the first being taken back inside. this is what he had been saying last few weeks, you will remember he went to see angela merkel in berlin and macron in paris and that biarritz summit where he had meetings with the g7 stop when he was out there, he spoke to me and other reporters and said that he was feeling optimistic, he felt that his message, that the backstop, that guarantee which means there won't be any checks or harboured on the island of ireland, he said they understand now that that has to go and he felt that message has landed is the way that he put it to me. whether that's true or not of course is another matter. it's true that those leaders did not stand next to him and say, we will not reopen the withdrawal agreement, on the other hand, they are still talking about wanting to see the alternative proposals that would replace the backstop. i think there is maybe, the door hasn't been slammed in his

face but many people, interestingly, including some of his own mps are wondering how much progress there really has been. i spoke to one tory mp he was against no deal, who said to me that he had thought that boris johnson was serious about a deal but 110w johnson was serious about a deal but now he was a bit more sceptical, he wa nted now he was a bit more sceptical, he wanted to be reassured by boris johnson before those votes but actually he was trying to get a deal, that it wasn'tjust actually he was trying to get a deal, that it wasn't just saying that and that he was indeed pursuing a deal. so this is an appeal to his own mps to say, don't risk putting jeremy corbyn into downing street, because of course, for conservatives, that is not something that they want. and he said, i don't wa nt that they want. and he said, i don't wantan that they want. and he said, i don't want an election, but many commentators... i don't know, maybe including yourself, think an election is still, the chances of an election is still, the chances of an election produced soon are very likely indeed. —— pretty soon.|j think so, because if you dig about how this works, he doesn't want an

election, if you just become prime minister, why would you throw caution to the wind and risk not being prime minister injust a caution to the wind and risk not being prime minister in just a few weeks' time, but with a majority of just one, what can he get done? and if promu decides this week, we're going to force you to delay brexit, he's made it clear he will not do that. —— he's made it clear he will not do that. -- if he's made it clear he will not do that. —— if parliament decides. so then he has the option of breaking then he has the option of breaking the law, resigning, or gambling and going to the country in a general election, and i think that is the most likely scenario. if mps succeed in getting this bill through that they have just published tonight. so i think that is where we are and if that were to happen, the timings are a little bit livid but on tuesday or wednesday, it's likely that that bill could get through promu. —— the timings are livid. and then you could see on thursday the prime minister bringing a motion before the commons for an election. he has to get two thirds of mps to back it, thatis to get two thirds of mps to back it, that is one route he could go down, then the pressure would be onjeremy

corbyn as to whether he decides he and his mps should back that call for a general election. and just to be clear, seeing again from the helicopter, some of the mps in the garden at that reception you were mentioning, would there be some of the prime minister's opponents there as well as supporters, do think? yes, i mean, i didn't see people like philip hammond and david gauke going on there but that's not totally surprising, but there were some going in there who are on the other side of the argument, i saw a few in there, and i think the question is there going to come under enormous pressure, those ones who are trying to change the law. they will come under pressure from their own side, as we saw, the pressure being, you're effectively going to be booted out of the conservative party and will not be able to stand as an mp at the general election under the conservative banner. for some of them, they have announced that they are going to stand down at the next election anyway so that really is not something that is going to work on them. but there will be many

others who might not want to sacrifice their careers and that is a very, very difficult thing for them to come to terms with over the next few days about what they do, whether they are prepared to say, actually, my career is over. i think that no deal is so damaging that i'm prepared to do that. now, they've got of course larger numbers than they did have on that side of things because you have people like philip hammond, david gauke who were in the cabinet, who no longer are, and have even put their names to that bill that hilary benn has published this evening. so it certainly looks like numbers will be pretty tight but borisjohnson numbers will be pretty tight but boris johnson really numbers will be pretty tight but borisjohnson really doing as much as he can in his finalfew hours to say to them, think very carefully about this, don't do it because you don't know what the consequence is might be. thank you for that, vicki young there, are chief political correspondent. stay with us because we are going to get reaction from the director of the research group

deltapoll, who joins us on webcam from north london now. what is polling evidence about what mr johnson's government i do now under brexit strategy now, and if they we re brexit strategy now, and if they were an election, and a lot of people pointing to that possibility in the next few weeks, i would the various parties fair? well, the short answer is, we don't know. these are very unusual times. this isa these are very unusual times. this is a unique situation for british politics and, crucially, polls are only ever a snapshot of public opinion of where we are at the moment. if election called today, a lot of the polling points to a win for the conservatives and a lead of a about between ten and 12%. that, in normal times, would be good enough to deliver a majority for the conservatives are between set of 20 and 30. but these are not normal

times, and these calculations that translate vote share to set‘s don't ta ke translate vote share to set‘s don't take into account, for instance, the huge divisions in this country along the lines of remain and leave up and down the different constituencies across the country. they also don't ta ke across the country. they also don't take into account the impact that an important party like the brexit party could have empty constituencies. potentially damaging the conservative vote. and also, of course, none of this takes into account the huge impact that the general election campaign could have on things. we saw in 2017, the conservatives had a large lead when the election was called and yet by the election was called and yet by the time the votes were cast, that lead had shrunk significantly. the same thing could happen this time around, we could see a big surge for labour. the opposite could be true. we could see a significant change for the conservatives. but what is certain is that in these uncertain times, the campaign could have a huge impact on things. and another

variable, of course, potentially tactical voting and may be temporary pacts between parties, especially on the remaining side of the argument? yes, we've had a lot of conversations about labour and their position on brexit. i think it's unlikely that they would maintain this position of strategic ambiguity where a general election campaign to ta ke where a general election campaign to take place. but there's also the avowedly remain parties like plaid cymru, and the lib dems, most obviously. who brought a pact to the by—election in august that proved to be successful. but on the leave side, there is a big debate about the brexit party and the conservatives, will they form some sort of nonaggression treaty? and if they do that, what will the brexit party wa nt they do that, what will the brexit party want in return? and will that actually help the conservatives? it might help them in some of these constituencies do not split the leave out, but what about the kind of constituencies that we see, let's

say, in the south—west, there is marginal constituencies that tend to be remain leading? david cameron won in the 2015 general election and borisjohnson would need to win if an election majority were to be achieved in those constituencies. but with a go for a conservative party that was willing to jump into bed with the brexit party? that's a big unknown. thank you for talking to us. the prime minister spoke strongly after 6pm just outside of number ten downing street, that he had to say. five weeks ago i spoke to you from these steps and said the government was not going to hang around that we would not wait until brexit day, october 31, to deliver on the priorities of the british people. and so i am proud to say that on wednesday, chancellor sajid javid is going to set out the most ambitious spending round for more than a decade. i said i wanted to make your

streets safer, and that is why we are recruiting another 20,000 police officers. i said i wanted to reduce waiting times at your gps improve hospitals, and so we are doing 20 new hospital upgrades in addition to the 34 billion going into the nhs. and i said i wanted every child in the country to have a superb education, which is why i announced la st education, which is why i announced last week that we are levelling up funding across the country and spending much more next year in both primary and secondary schools. and it's to push for this agenda on these and many other fronts that we need a queen's speech in october while leaving due time to debate brexit and other matters. and as we come to that brexit deadline, i am encouraged by the progress we are making. in the last few weeks, the

chances of the deal have been rising, i believe, forthree reasons. they can see that we wanted you. they can see that we have a clear vision for a future relationship with the eu. —— that we wa nt relationship with the eu. —— that we want a deal. something that perhaps has not always been the case. and they can see that we are utterly determined to strengthen our position by getting ready to come out, regardless, come what may. but if one thing can hold us back in these talks, its ascent in brussels that mps may find some way to cancel the referendum. for that tomorrow, mps will vote with jeremy corbyn for yet another pointless delay. i don't think they will, i hope that they won't. but if they do, they will plainly chop the legs out from under the uk position and make any further

negotiation absolutely impossible. and so i say, to show our friends in brussels that we are united in our purpose, mps should vote with the government against corbyn's pointless delay. i want everyone to know there are no circumstances in which i will ask brussels to delay. we are living on the 31st of october, no ifs or buts. we will not acce pt october, no ifs or buts. we will not accept any attempt to go back on our promises or script that referendum. and, armed and fortified with that conviction, i believe we will get a deal at that crucial summit in october, a deal that parliament will certainly be able to scrutinise. and in the meantime, let's let our negotiators get on with their work without that sort of —— sword of

damocles over the next command without an election. without an election. i don't want an election, you don't want election. let's get on with the people'sagenda, fighting crime, improving the nhs, boosting schools, cutting the cost of living, unlocking talent and opportunity across the entire united kingdom with infrastructure, education and technology. it is a massive agenda. let's come together and get it done and let's get brexit. —— lets get brexit done by october 31. so that was borisjohnson brexit done by october 31. so that was boris johnson speaking brexit done by october 31. so that was borisjohnson speaking in downing street just after was borisjohnson speaking in downing streetjust after 6pm. just hearing from our political editor at laura kuenssberg, saying its understood boris johnson laura kuenssberg, saying its understood borisjohnson would call a, quote, rapid general election which would be expected to be on october the 14th, is tory and opposition mps succeed in outlawing

a no—deal brexit in parliament this week. so arthur divided her saying if there is a successful vote by opposition and tory mps to outlaw a no—deal brexit this week, then boris johnson would go for what is being described as a rapid general election. —— our political editor saying that. that would be expected to be on october the 14th. let's get the thoughts now of political a nalyst the thoughts now of political analyst sirjohn curtice who joins us from glasgow via webcam. first of all, borisjohnson's statement there, in terms of his message to there, in terms of his message to the voters out in the country watching him, what do you think that message was? i think there are two crucial messages, the first of course is that he basically indicated that he is prime minister is not willing to accept a delay on brexit. and a very clear implication that if the house of commons does vote in favour, there was a reference to an election and i think

it's pretty clear now that he is minded to go for an election if indeed the house of commons votes to try to stop him from pursuing a no—deal brexit strategy. but i think the second crucial part of the statement, he's been building up for the last week or so the way in which this conservative government is now costing off the coat of austerity, and mrjohnson is keen to persuade voters he is going to spend more on health, education, etc. and it therefore suggests that if the labour party accedes to the idea of an early general election, and we should remember that it is now effectively up to the labour party to decide whether mrjohnson would get his way on an election, they're to have to think about is what is the divesting position it's going to fight on? —— the domestic position. it's spent the last three or four yea rs it's spent the last three or four years milking the idea of tory austerity and that is going to be difficult to pursue in a general

election in the wake of spending decisions that would appear to give the impression the spending cuts have been turned on, if not full blast certainly a long way. —— spending taps. our political editor saying that if parliament gets its way and pushes through, or at least the rebel tories and opposition mps get their way and pushed through a law that effectively outlaws a no—deal brexit, that mrjohnson would then go for a rapid general election on october 14. the reason he's doing that i think is to try to avoid the one reason why perhaps the labour party might vote against an early general election, which is if the house of commons votes for an early election and for its have to be dissolved, it is up to the prime minister to decide what the date of the election would be. and one of the election would be. and one of the concerns that has been expressed on the main site is if indeed the house of commons were to vote for an election, the prime minster might say i want an election on 14th or

let say i want an election on 14th or 21st october, in the event he decides to pick a date in november instead, therefore we would crash out without a deal by default. this in effect i think is mrjohnson trying to persuade a labour party that they should not stand in the way of him holding a general election, should there be any question marks. but of course the truth is the labour party has rather cornered itself on this issue, as in 2017 it said far too much about being willing to fight a general election, wanting to have a general election, wanting to have a general election, but when the prime minister comes along and says, i wa nt to minister comes along and says, i want to have a general election at the time of my choosing at the time it is in my interests, the labour party finds itself hoist by its own petard. so john curtice, thank you very much indeed as ever for your analysis from glasgow. let's talk now to the labour mp hilary benn, who has in the last hour or so published the bill that mps will propose later this week in their

attempt to prevent a no—deal brexit, and there it is, or at least part of it. and effectively saying that if there isn't a deal, then brexit should be delayed until the end of january. so a three—month extension. what's the point of that, hilary benn? mrjohnson keeps saying, what's the point of further delay? we have had delays in the past, why another one? the principal purpose of the bill is to prevent a no—deal brexit on 31st of october, because the government does make your own assessment shows that would be the most damaging outcome for the country. we have seen with the lea ked country. we have seen with the leaked operation yellowhammer report what it would mean for problems with goods getting across the straits between dover and calais, the government has talked about potential shortages of medicine, food prices, farmers saying it would be devastating for them if there is a no—deal brexit. so that is the principal purpose of the bill. and i think i watch the