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tv   Brexitcast  BBC News  October 12, 2019 2:30pm-3:01pm BST

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this is bbc news. the headlines at three. cheering. a moment of sporting history — kenyan athlete eliud kipchoge becomes the first person to run a marathon in under two hours. this is bbc news, the headlines: the i am the happiest man to run under two hours, to inspire many people, kenyan athlete makes history after to tell people no man is limited, you can do it. becoming the first person to run a translation: my stomach marathon in under two hours. the was in knots, but now i'm feeling typhoon makes landfall injapan, the worst storm to hit the country for better, i am very happy that eliud 60 years. fierce fighting in has broken this record. there's been fierce fighting in north—eastern syria, as turkish northeast in syria as turkish military continue their offensive militants renew their offensive against kurdish forces. against kurdish forces. cardinal typhoon hagibis makes landfall near tokyo, amid severe flooding and landslide newman has been named as the first warnings — it's the biggest storm british saint of the modern era. now, any programme reported on
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thursday, the brexitcast gang chew over boris johnson's thursday, the brexitcast gang chew over borisjohnson‘s brexit thursday, the brexitcast gang chew over boris johnson's brexit talks with his irish counterpart. here is brexitcast. brexitcast is nothing if not a family show. is it? i think so. and this week we hear from a listener. and, here's the kicker, harrison, her son. the brexitcast baby. she's sent us a video. he's sitting in his high chair, i think, listening to brexitcast. shall we have a look? he's excited about the klaxon. he's got a tummy like yours, adam! 0h, he loves bit of dominic raab.
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that is too cute, isn't it? welcome to brexitcast. brexitcast from the bbc. no—one's got a bleeping clue what brexit is. brexit is, erm... i had not quite understood the extent of this. we are particularly reliant on the dover/calais crossing. i met borisjohnson once. the doubters, the doomsters, the gloomsters, they're going to get it wrong again. remainers and leavers, that's going to end well. a process i can only describe as a dog's brexit. it's chris at westminster. laura at westminster. adam in brussels. and katya by his side. and we have rather a lot to get into
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ina and we have rather a lot to get into in a moment or two. it has been a weak. it has. to get us through that week, we can tease a little conversation at the lighter end of the spectrum that we will have a little later. because rhodri is going tojoin us, and his record player is already here in the booth. ididn't player is already here in the booth. i didn't think that was yours, chris! it's not! rhodri has compiled, he's a writer and musician, he has compiled some brexit disco hits. and just to tease you, let's hear... you can dance around your binders! this song is called let's go wto stop count normal case # the best way to go stop case
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# the best way to go stop case #is # the best way to go stop case # is wto... ...#. that's amazing! that's helped me already. it has been quite a couple of days in a big week, which has been dominated by, can there possibly be a deal, and that lingering sense of clouds and the sense that there might be, but it's looking difficult difficult. sense that there might be, but it's looking difficult difficultm sense that there might be, but it's looking difficult difficult. it has been looking very, very bad, particularly from the irish, who are so particularly from the irish, who are so relevant, time and again, that it looks impossible to do a deal based on what the uk has put forwards. those new proposals that were only put forward by boris johnson those new proposals that were only put forward by borisjohnson eight days ago. last wednesday. and there isa summit days ago. last wednesday. and there is a summit in a week's time, and then on thursday, this get—together, british prime minister and irish prime minister in cheshire chatting
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for about three hours. and out of that, thisjoint for about three hours. and out of that, this joint statement with this intriguing sentence, given the clouds of the last few days, they agreed that they can see a pathway toa agreed that they can see a pathway to a possible deal. i guess the essence of what we need to work out is to what extent is that something positive or is it diplomatic golf? we need to look at what happened at the last week, borisjohnson's proposals had three big bits, first, an acknowledgement that northern ireland could follow eu rules and regulations if this backstop ever had to happen after the transition period. second, you need to have a consent mechanism where people in northern ireland could consent to this in the first place, and then every four years would agree to the continuation. and then the third was about customs, northern ireland staying in the uk customs territory, nothing to do with the eu customs union, and all sorts of things in between to ease the flow of goods.
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the reason why this matters at all, we get very pointed headed about it, but after brexit, this becomes a land border with the european union and its single market, and this is why it's such a big deal. and that border goes down the island of ireland, and hence all the complications and why leo varadkar is such a huge figure and whether this can be acceptable to the eu or not. michel barnier had been quite negative about this, giving a thumbs up negative about this, giving a thumbs up to negative about this, giving a thumbs uptoa negative about this, giving a thumbs up to a part one, the regulations bits, and then saying perhaps they could work on the consent part, but we do not like the one proposed, and then customs, he was, like, no way, this is asking for a blank cheque, unacceptable. so the big picture is, they talks look like they were still stuck on the conundrum that has been the bigger problem all along, how do you sort out the irish border after brexit? and that's why, when the
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statement emerged from this 3—hour login, at this very fancy country house in cheshire, this phrase about a pathway to a deal, was absolutely a pathway to a deal, was absolutely a change in tone from all those things that katya had been talking about, coming out from brussels and london this week. the mood music was all very bad, and then suddenly a very different sounding phrase. and then a much more cheerful sounding leo varadkar speaking as he was about to hop on a plane back to dublin. i think it is possible for us dublin. i think it is possible for us to come to an agreement to have a treaty agreed to allow the uk to leave the eu in an orderly fashion and have that done by the end of october. but there is many a slip between cup and lip and many things that are not in my control. chris: and listening to that is even more positive than the statement where
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there was a pathway to a deal. yes, but call me an old cynic... you're an old cynic. thank you. it is possible that the two men sat there and suddenly had a light bulb moment but can't show the details with the likes of oz in case we rip it apart, or this could be leo varadkar saying that he rejects the bogeyman image that he rejects the bogeyman image that number 10 is bestowed on him, because the anger, fury, irritation, frustration in downing street that the prime minister's proposal has not gone down well, the finger has been pointing again and again and again at leo varadkar, the accusation made that he can smell this extension coming, that he thinks it could lead to a referendum, it could lead to a general election, where boris
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johnson doesn't get a majority. it could be a reversal of brexit, the suggestion made that he wants to cancel the peoples choice of leaving. so it could be that he decided to come out today because he was smiling, very much when he made the statement, to say no, i'm here and think this is possible, not only to have a deal but to have at this month. that could be one reading. the other is that borisjohnson is clearly extremely charming. every time he meets a eu leader, whether para or blown over the summer or at the g7 firm, he goes down like a storm. right weather at paris or berlin over the summer. and that is why borisjohnson berlin over the summer. and that is why boris johnson is berlin over the summer. and that is why borisjohnson is always had a hit are getting this done in a way that theresa may could not, she would stick to her sticking points and some of the most awkward points of this whole process have been looking at pictures of her and leo varadkar ina looking at pictures of her and leo varadkar in a rome. you almost felt sorry for the glasses of water on the table! they turned to ice!
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exactly! from talking to people in and around the talks, well—placed people, shall we say, i think it's quite clear there have been a couple of inches of progress forward. it is clear there was a political meeting of minds and even had a little walk around the grounds together. spent some time at without any officials in the room. and yet there was a photographer there to catch that! this is like borisjohnson on a park bench with his girlfriend, there's all sorts of well— placed photographers around. rather convenience, eh. ithink, reading between the lines, because we did not manage to have cameras in the room and we were playing hunt the venue room and we were playing hunt the venuein room and we were playing hunt the venue in westminster this week —
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but it feels to me like there has been a little bit of political progress, almost like the two men have said we do want to get this done, don't we? despite all the noise of the last few days. exactly. but somebody with very good knowledge of what happened said they are absolutely not at the stage of cracking open champagne. i said, what about a pint of guinness? they said, not yet, there is still a lot of distance to go. and as katya suggested, there will be lots of spin, notably from our own side, and the political area terror of the irish times saying the uk hope given a concessional customs already. downing street were very, very tight—lipped. downing street were very, very tight-lipped. and also, boris johnson is charming, we said, charming he is, trust in, the eu
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does not. eu diplomats point out again and again that whereas boris johnson — the phone calls don't go down quite as well with the eu leaders, but face—to—face meetings do — he talks about our friends and partners in the eu, but the aggressive briefings from number 10 come from anonymous sources. the diplomats say they see through it. and we forgot our gallop through the week and why people were looking gloomy, we forgot the whole spat of the the anonymous briefing of the phone call between borisjohnson and angler merkel which sounded like a total disaster, we wrapped up our binders, it seemed really gloomy. and notjust gloomy binders, it seemed really gloomy. and not just gloomy from the substance of what could be in the deal negotiations, it seemed gloomy from a political relations between the eu and uk point of view. and we had donald tusk, his tweet painted
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straight at boris johnson and. not about winning a stupid blame game, he said. love that, when a politician says, that other terrible politician says, that other terrible politician must not play a blame game! tell you what does not go down very well in the eu, the feeling that they are being threatened. the other anonymous briefing that came out, apart from the phone call between borisjohnson out, apart from the phone call between boris johnson and angela merkel, was basically what appear to bea merkel, was basically what appear to be a rant and the suspicion is that it was from dominic cummings, the special adviser to the prime minister, that sounded very angry and very threatening, like if it comes to asking the eu for an extension, then somehow those eu countries that voted in favour of the extension, this briefing said, would somehow be punished by the uk. the eu react so badly to something like that, because also what are you going to do to those individual countries? rather than make them
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think, we must sign up to this deal, as one diplomat put it to me, this deal as it stands, particularly this customs area, itjust deal as it stands, particularly this customs area, it just does deal as it stands, particularly this customs area, itjust does not deal as it stands, particularly this customs area, it just does not work for the customs area, it just does not work forthe eu. so the customs area, it just does not work for the eu. so the threat that they should go for it with the implication that after a general election it could be an even harder line conservative government that wouldn't even offer this proposal, this diplomat was saying, this doesn't work for us, so i would she say yes to this in case of something that works even less? laura, the theory is that you have got such a good statement from leo varadkar, borisjohnson must have had to signal a compromise on his customs proposal, do we have any clues about that? that's not being backed up by anything from the uk side yet, and that's not something i've heard, and i have put that to a few people so far. that doesn't mean it didn't happen, but difficult for him to sell it? because if he gets a
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compromise, it would be difficult to get it through parliament. and also there's something about this, when eve ryo ne there's something about this, when everyone is expecting failure, suddenly, ooh, there might be something! it's a change of the dynamic. and the crooks of all this, as we ponder the statement and language from leo varadkar, given where we are on the 10th of october, katya was saying last week, it may not be quoting you verbatim, but the essence was that there was a vanishingly small likelihood of a deal. and for all the talk of the clouds and a little ray of sunshine, it's still vanishingly unlikely, and the current time frame. it's important to keep diplomatic channels open and regardless of what happens, they will have to be conversations between london and dublin, but getting a deal so that the uk can leave by the end of october, three weeks today, and the ratification that is necessary and all the rest of it, still seems vanishingly small. i think if
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harrison the brexit baby forgives me, we are in a situation where no—one wants to be left holding the baby. no—one wants to be the one that says it's not going to happen. but it's not going to happen. i mean, maybe, maybe, maybe, there's a 0.0003% chance it will happen, but no—one wants to be the one to say it. so leo varadkar will not say it, borisjohnson will not it. so leo varadkar will not say it, boris johnson will not say it, angela merkel will definitely not say it. you can call it whatever you want, but the bottom line is, the eu leaders want a deal, boris johnson wants a deal, and all of them want to be seen to be working towards a deal, and therefore they would like to keep working on it. so for those who want a brexit deal, that at least is good news. at the moment, it's not clear how they get round this customs conundrum. eu says they will accept two different customs
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regimes on the island of ireland, but how does that work in practice? it sounds good... it could take yea rs. it sounds good... it could take years. that's why it's a leap of faith are politically, what the uk government has been pushing the eu to make. they believe they had education over the summer that the eu might be willing to take that lea p eu might be willing to take that leap and say, ok, maybe we don't have to have everything completely signed and sealed and maybe they would accept the notion of these two borders. then you get over that hurdle and worry about it later. but it's interesting, because when you asked ministers about it privately, one of them said to me this week, the eu arejust going to play one of them said to me this week, the eu are just going to play along, that's what they will do, play along and there will have to be a delay. other ministers genuinely —
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privately — genuinely believe that it could still be done, if you squint and put a giant bits of wool through a tiny needle, but also on a different but related question, that even if there is not a deal, they can somehow get out of the 31st of october. that is not the conventional wisdom in westminster, or in brussels, i believe, but there are people who believe, but there are people who believe that, even when you have them on the spot in private, not just when they have a microphone in front of theirface. just when they have a microphone in front of their face. they might be crazy! but they still believe it. we're still focusing on what the end product will be what the deal could be, what are we contained, we do get through parliament to? i wonder if this isjust a bit through parliament to? i wonder if this is just a bit about the process, because what the brits were desperate for the last few days was to go into this thing called the tunnel, what we say when negotiators are sat around one typewriter
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together in secret and no—one knows what is going on in that they emerge with a finished product. i got a sense that what the uk wanted was to get into that tunnel and they weren't so much worried about what came out of the tunnel at the end, it wasjust to came out of the tunnel at the end, it was just to get into the tunnel. that was exactly that aim last week. my feeling was right! we should call your inspector adam! it sounds like what they may now have got is the tunnel, because that statement includes the phrase, engage intensively, codeword for a new style of talking. the reason that on a's good is because that's where you can make concessions in secret and thenjust reveal can make concessions in secret and then just reveal it all at the end. and thenjust then just reveal it all at the end. and then just ram it through parliament in five minutes and hope no one reads the small print. and that will be down to barnier and the brexit secretary having petit dejeuner in the morning and hoping that both sides may conclude that they can get into the tunnel. just
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to pour a bit of cold water on the excitement, everyone i spoke to in brussels this afternoon after the boris and leo thing, it came as a surprise to literally every single person in this town, read into that which you well. it sparked a lot of rumours, some of which are just totally... this is not a rumour mill town! it's only ever a technical and legal institution! did any of them know the funny thing about the manner where the summit took place? it's where coleen rooney had a 21st birthday party! the big stories of the week smash into each other! isn't that a news joy? if you have not been following the news this week, borisjohnson swept into this amazing elizabethan manor, built in the 19th century — which i was confused by —
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and that was where her... it's a wedding venue, apparently. yes, i looked at up today, i did not remember it from hello. when i moved house, ijunked remember it from hello. when i moved house, i junked it. remember it from hello. when i moved house, ijunked it. she had a cream ivory gown, and on that night, wayne rooney gave her a ten carat diamonds, apparently. and you know what you have at a party, a dj! are we going to hear wto again? that was the hit we heard earlier, and here's rotary. rotary hasjust walked into the studio, nice to meet you. and he has a record in its sheath. and we can see the cover. let me get this right, you decided to make a disco
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concept album based on brexit terminology, and you have pressed the first ever final copy for us? yes, it is a special brexitcast addition with a glitter ball and some stars on it. amazing, i hope to press wa nt some stars on it. amazing, i hope to press want to send to brussels, because! is a talk i'm afraid not! it's quite expensive to do this type of pressing. all albums have to be played in the correct order, so take us through that order? the album begins with piece of cake disco king dr fox. so this is the first track. liam fox: if you think about it, the trade agreement should be one of the easiest in history. # the deal that we're going to make # the deal that we're going to make
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#is # the deal that we're going to make # is going to be a piece of cakelj wa nt # is going to be a piece of cakelj want to get on the table and dance! so comes at a piece of cake? that is my excuse to use metaphors for things that are easy, like stealing sweets from a baby, and try and find rhymes for them. we have look backstop next. it is a great disco title, backstop, two syllable. this isa title, backstop, two syllable. this is a late smoochy one! # backstop, it's a submission...#. there's no such thing as a right idea, don't worry. people used to
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say that brexitcast was a bit like abba, i think that's wrong, we need to change that. out this come about, how did you make it, it sounds quite good? it's slick, isn't it? like the ongoing uncertainty about brexit, it causes me no end of anxiety and has done for a long time, and then i realise that making a disco album would be cheaper than therapy. so what comes after backstop?” would be cheaper than therapy. so what comes after backstop? i can feel the stress floating away as i listen. can you imagine anyone, one of the public figures in the public process, dancing along to this?” can imagine angela merkel, at home in front of the telly! one more, here we go. it fades in.
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winne david davis djing this, don't we? it would be so great for us if you gave us another press. david davis on the decks, that would be super. we're going to do a brexitcast music mix on bbc it sounds, so we're looking for songs to put on the list. to which of these should we choose?” to put on the list. to which of these should we choose? i don't think it should be my decision.” say backstop, but perhaps we should have a vote. you know me, i like cake. we're as divided as the brexit process. we're heading into the sunset now, aren't we? on the
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pathway to completing our play. so where can people get hold of your soundtrack? all digital platforms, all linked to at our website, article 54 — see what i did there? brexit has been a creative flourish. it certainly has! we were next week, bye— bye. certainly has! we were next week, bye-bye. we're off clubbing! and continuing the theme of a divided nation, meet a logically speaking, of course, not
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sparkling at all across the south, but showers across the north and west of scotland, and here we are in argyll and bute and a rainbow, so it must of been showering, surely. the reason for the divergence in our weather, we have this banner of cloud across the south, tied in with a weather front, you cloud across the south, tied in with a weatherfront, you had cloud across the south, tied in with a weather front, you had to cloud across the south, tied in with a weatherfront, you had to be further north before we reach clearer skies and drier conditions, and then the even further north there is another front, and then the even further north there is anotherfront, keeping and then the even further north there is another front, keeping the game was going in argyll and bute but widely across the north of scotland. we have maybe some strange ones across the site of the pennines as well. nothing changing quickly because not a lot of wind. except in the very far north of scotland, a breeze ushering those showers along. temperatures, well, you won't be sending a postcard home for these. around the humber could be the warm spot of the afternoon, around 15 degrees, the warmest time of the day
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is right now. into the evening, pushing this rain further north, so if you step out in the small hours in wales, the midlands, even the north of england, you could see some rain, but it is more mild. further north, a touch of frost in the sheltered countryside. this is the picture for sunday, a complex set of weather fronts to say the least. what is it all mean? england and wales, don't start, maybe a little drier weather in the south, won't last, because we have to push some of the rain from the west of england further east, and at the same time, pushing another area of cloud further north. if you haven't had a mention, eventually south western parts of england and wales, you will brighten up. northern ireland, a decent sort of day. monday, uncertainty because of — i'm going to mention europe now, but
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not politically — this bank of cloud is close to the southern quarter, this will come up towards the midlands and lincolnshire perhaps as well. what is more certain, another area of cloud coming up the western side of the british isles, so i hope you make the most of the drier weather in northern ireland for the next couple of days, because it will probably not last until monday. lots going on, a deal of uncertainty, 00:29:25,157 --> 4294966103:13:29,430 i'll see you later.
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