this is the business briefing. i'm sally bundock. the uk and eu edge towards a brexit agreement, as warnings mount about the consequences of no—deal for the business world. plus: not so special relationship. uk firms face a nasty hangover, as the us hits europe with billions of dollars of import taxes. and on the markets, this week's rally in global shares fizzles out, as weak us retail sales re—awaken fears about the health of the world's biggest economy. sterling remains volatile with brexit talks on a knife edge.

we start with brexit, because as you've been hearing, britain and the eu are in a last—minute scramble to agree a deal to be put before a summit of european leaders which begins in brussels in a few hours time. any agreement would then need the approval of parliament here in london. in case anyone needs reminding, the uk is due to leave the eu in less than two weeks. at 23:00 gmt on 31 october. prime minister borisjohnson has repeatedly said this will happen, regardless of a deal or not. under a law passed last month, he must ask the eu for an extension to that deadline.

that's if he does not get a new deal approved by parliament this saturday. the european union is britain's biggest trading partner. last year, 46% of all uk exports went to the eu and 54% of all imports came from the eu, according to data from the uk parliament. if britain leaves without a deal, disruption to business could be huge, despite attempts to prepare. the government's own efficiency watchdog, the national audit office, says cross—border shipments of goods could slump by more than half on day one, and could take up to 12 months to return to normality. so, events are being watched increasingly nervously, notjust by uk and eu firms but by multinationals such as nissan that use britain as a base to export to europe. let's get more on this story. chris southworth is the uk head of the international chambers of commerce, which represents 45

million companies in 130 countries. chris, good to talk to you again. you're in brussels today. what are your hopes of the negotiators coming up your hopes of the negotiators coming up with something that they can present to eu leaders today and tomorrow? well, we don't know what's going to come out of the next 2a hours but what's clear all of this is what. .. the hours but what's clear all of this is what... the deal the uk will be getting will be less and what we have now, but it's better than a no—deal. i think a no—dealfor companies... it is critical we avoid that situation and it's also the beginning of the process and we have to bear that in mind. it's interesting being in brussels, we are ina interesting being in brussels, we are in a very difficult trading environment, notjust in the uk and europe globally. if there is a more assertive approach to trade, that will not be easy for the uk when it sta rts will not be easy for the uk when it starts its future negotiations on trade. when it comes to the members of your organisation, how are they preparing and what are they preparing and what are they

preparing for? what is clear... i've been talking to a lot of companies over the last couple of weeks and small companies aren't prepared and they're not prepared because they don't know what they're preparing for because they don't know what the deal is. it's interesting to hear the ons figures... i think that would follow with what we hearing on the ground, companies aren't prepared, they're not ready, we are a matter of days and weeks away now. i think we have passed the threshold where you can prepare in the time companies have available. but the companies i talked to are not as many as you, of course, but they say they have stopped by old ahead of this 31st of october deadline in the same way they did before the end of march. it was almost like that was a dress rehearsal? those who have stockpiled and ready, they are obviously in a better position but by far the

majority are just not ready. survey after survey says the same thing and everything we are hearing on the ground is saying the same thing. that has all sorts of percussion is not just for the companies but the people they are supplying and the supply chains the big companies will also face with the disruption. chris southworth, uk head of the international chambers of commerce in brussels. we will have more on this in the programme. a key argument in favour of brexit has been the opportunity for britain to build economic ties with other parts of the world, like the us. but a former us trade chief has told the bbc the special relationship won't mean more favourable terms when it comes to trade. the warning comes as the us prepares to hit europe with billions of dollars of import taxes from friday, with many uk businesses caught in the crossfire. our business editor, simonjack, explains. a bulk from the blue. a 15 year year feud between eu giant airbus and

arch us rival boeing over government subsidies has seen the us allowed to impose $7.5 billion worth of tariffs on eu products. and the impact has landed right here, in speyside in scotland. from friday, single mould exports from scotland to the us worth £1 billion will be hit with a 2596 worth £1 billion will be hit with a 25% tariff. single malts from the republic of ireland will not. so this has been matured in a sherry glass for... this distillery sends 60,000 bottles of spey single mould to the us each year. patricia dillon has been talking to us importers to grow that number and those plans are 110w grow that number and those plans are now under review. we feel as though we've been dragged into eight trade war which is nothing to do with us whatsoever, and because of the 25% ta riffs whatsoever, and because of the 25% tariffs that have been implemented in the us, this is something we can't possibly absorb into our business, so what we have to do is reconsider the market in the us that

we are... it's not just we are... it's notjust whiskey makers under pressure, cashmere made in scotland will also get hit. kashmir makers in italy will not and that puts johnstons of elgin at a big disadvantage. in the very short-term we will have to absorb these costs because we can't expect people to pay more for products they've already ordered. in the long—term this will hit consumers in the us and that means there kashmir will become more expensive, and that in turn means we will be able to export less, grow less and downscale our plants. here atjohnston‘s in elgin and many other scottish businesses, there's a sense of confusion, even dismay, that they're being dragged into a damaging trade war didn't start and many are asking if this is the way the us treats us now, what makes us think there will be any special treatment over trade when we are outside the eu? it seems old friendships don't beat national self interest. the uk isn't being targeted unfairly. there will be tariffs put

on french products and german products and other products as well, but just because products and other products as well, butjust because we have a special relationship doesn't mean we're going to sacrifice our economic interests in the context of a trade dispute or a trade negotiation, and that, by the way, applies to any future trade relationship negotiated between the uk and the us as well. whiskey tariffs were raised on a call with donald trump last week with the prime minister urging him to rethink the. meanwhile, the uk government told the bbc securing a trade deal with the us is one of its highest priorities. what this shows is with the ebb and flow of trade, nothing is simple. simonjack, bbc news, speyside. nothing is simple, and that is certainly the case between the us and china. us treasury secretary steven mnuchin says us and chinese negotiators are working on what he calls a phase one trade deal text for their presidents to sign next month. rico hizon is following the story.

nice to you again. what is the latest? according to steven mnuchin, sally, both sides are working the phones to get the little details done and he said the proposed phase one text would include a quite broad tractor on protecting us intellectual property rights in china and partially touch on the issue of forced technology transfers to chinese companies. up until this point, sally, beijing has denied its laws requires such transfers and any that occur are the result of commercial transactions. other issues included in the phase i deal are the opening of the mainland financial services market, currencies and agricultural issues. in phase two, manu chin said some technology issues would be addressed, as with non—financial services. he said the trump

administration objective was for the agreement to be signed at the apec summit in chile. earlier this week steven mnuchin said if there was no progress on the deal, the trump administration could still impose the planned 10% tariffs on $156 billion of chinese goods, taking effect on the 15th of december. the clock is ticking thank you so much, rico in singapore. now let's brief you on some other business stories: the united auto workers union has announced a tentative deal with general motors after weeks of negotiations and one of the longest strikes in the company's history. the four—year agreement, which would cover almost 50,000 workers, signals a possible end to the month—long walkout over pay, conditions and job security, which has cost the carmaker an estimated $90 million a day. shares of netflix have jumped after it added more subscribers than wall street had been expecting in the three months to september. it now has 158 million paying customers around the world, but it faces serious competition from next month when disney

that is your business briefing. our news briefing is injust a moment, but first: scientists from lancaster university have attached microphones to the side of people's knees so they can listen to the high—frequency sounds made by noisy arthritic knees and improve diagnosis of the condition. the study, involving nearly 90 people, showed the technique could recognise the different sounds produced by healthy knees and joints with osteoarthritis. our health reporter, philippa roxby, has been finding out more. the technology has been used by engineers to listen for faults in road bridges, and it has now been adapted for use on people's knees. osteoarthritis of the knee is a

commonjoint condition osteoarthritis of the knee is a common joint condition that can cause pain, stiffness and swelling. normally the body can repair low—level damage to the joints but with osteoarthritis, the protective cartilage on the ends of bones brea ks cartilage on the ends of bones breaks down and can't mend itself. in this study, a tiny microphone was attached to the side of the affected knee to pick up acoustic signals from inside thejoint. participants were asked to stand up from a sitting position five times, and some were tested repeatedly over several weeks. although the sounds produced cannot be heard by the human ear, the signals can be analysed by computers. they give an insight into the health of each individual knee joint. like engineering structures, smooth, well lubricated joints move quietly, while rough, uneven surfaces make more noise. the research team says the new approach could lead to better diagnosis of osteoarthritis and more personalised treatments, but larger trials and more people

are needed first. the researchers are needed first. the researchers are now working on a device test the knees of athletes prone to injury, which could always tell my also be used to if their knees are responding to treatment. so much news in the world of science and health. for that story and more, breakfast is coming up at 6am with naga munchetty and charlie stayt. they'll have all the latest on negotiations. this is the briefing from bbc news. the latest headlines: the british prime minister boris johnson is due to head to brussels, as efforts continue to secure a last—minute brexit deal before a the summit of eu leaders. details have emerged of a threatening letter president trump sent to his turkish counterpart as democrats and republicans in the us house of representatives vote overwhelmingly to condemn his decision to pull american forces from northern syria.

so you can imagine with the european press is grappling with this morning. let's dig deep, then. the urgent brexit negotiations ahead of the eu summit dominate most of the uk papers. the times has a rather serious looking boris johnson pictured through bars, and says his fate is in the hands of the dup. the guardian has this photo as well, saying the prime minister is in a race against time to secure dup backing for his newly negotiated deal. the french daily, le figaro, also features boris johnson on the front page, calling brexit "a showdown to the end". away from brexit, the south china morning post's top story is the situation in hong kong

and has a picture of the chaotic and embarrassing scenes inside the legislative council as chief executive carrie lam tried to deliver her address and was forced to leave the chamber. the new york times has the story of the 27—year—old boxer patrick day, who has died four days after suffering a brain injury during a fight in chicago last weekend. and finally, the sun leads with an open letter sent by more than 100 extinction rebellion—backing celebrities, who've admitted they are climate change hypocrites with their high—carbon lifestyles, but they are asking the media and journalists to focus on the bigger issue at hand. the sun calls them "ego—warriors". with me is james hughes, chief market analyst at brokerage firm axi trader. it's the story you and i discussed every time you come in. and today, for good reason it's the nominating —— dominating most of the press.

this shot