want a referendum some mp5 just want a referendum before an election, but let's just think about that. the british election 5tudy, think about that. the british election study, their research shows that 50% of all british voter5 election study, their research shows that 50% of all british voters are how that 50% of all british voters are now floating voter5. that is unprecedented in the modern history of democracy, where normally you go into an election where the vast majority of people have already made up majority of people have already made up their mind. and last time round, and i'm sure you will point out laboured and when the last election, but the tories were far more ahead in the last election at the beginning of the campaign. there5a may was way more popular than bori5 johnson. if may was way more popular than boris johnson. if they're talking about ending austerity, taxing the rich, tuition fees, they have a chance. ending austerity, taxing the rich, tuition fees, they have a chancelj think tuition fees, they have a chancel think owen has made a very good point in that 50% of the electorate are now floating voters, so there is are now floating voters, so there is a massive opportunity for all parties to move around. the problem here is that everybody is going for labour's vote. the conservatives wa nt labour's vote. the conservatives want their leave vote, the lib dems wa nt want their leave vote, the lib dems want they remain vote, and they are factionalised in terms of where they can go, so you factionalised in terms of where they can go, so you have factionalised in terms of where they can go, so you have floating voters, but everybody has taken extreme

positions, which means that their ability to be able to corral people is going to be limited. but no talking about dying in ditches? about do—or—die raid? he has failed. we will not be leaving on the 31st of october, this thursday, halloween, and as a result, there is an inherent risk in that, isn't there? in going to the country? absolutely, this is not without massive risk for the conservative party and boris johnson massive risk for the conservative party and borisjohnson and his premiership. what is in his mind is that now that the 31st of october brexit date has passed, he needs to be able to get the uplift from the feeling of, quite friendly, resentment in the country that is going to be building about the fact that it hasn't been done yet. he has put labour in a position where they look like they have tried to stall the will of the people, and he has got as good a chance as any right now to be able to go to the country and geta now to be able to go to the country and get a majority that he needs to be able to get any kind of withdrawal legislation through

parliament. but for remainers, the opposition are now split. snp, liberal democrat, labour, and that isa liberal democrat, labour, and that is a huge problem for those people who feel that there were issues with that vote and that in fact the british people were sold a dodgy bill of goods during the referendum. if the opposition is split, it is happy days for the conservatives?l big danger. every chance the tories will win a majority precisely for that one reason. and you could end up that one reason. and you could end up with the tories winning less votes than last time and still winning a majority that they didn't get if, for example, in marginals, these are marginals where at the moment it is but in the tories and labour, where last time it was relatively close, if enough people vote for the liberal democrats who voted for labour last time, the tories will win those seats, there will be a hard brexit, and what is interesting, we will see what happens and this is the big question ofan happens and this is the big question of an election campaign, the brexit deal that borisjohnson negotiated has not been properly scrutinised yet, it has all been about does he have the numbers in parliament. it will be scrutinised that he capitulated to the eu's red lines and accepted the deal they offered

la st and accepted the deal they offered last year, that he betrayed his dup allies and basically threw them in the irish sea, and in terms of, can you trust this man, if you can't trust him and brexit, can you trust him on all the other pledges that he is making? and the big question, the question ever every person who supports remain, will you be lumbered with a hard brexit deal, or will you take the only option left, and the tories will win a majority, but the other thing that will come up but the other thing that will come up an election, it will be about housing, living standards, public services and jobs. that absolutely will be what labour want, and for borisjohnson will be what labour want, and for boris johnson and the will be what labour want, and for borisjohnson and the conservatives it will be a brexit election, they will make that clear. it is good to see you both, thank you very much indeed forjoining us. let's head over to central lobby now. the mp5 are returning after casting their votes. let's bring in vicki young, our chief political correspondent.

this is not a normal parliamentary vote, and that is because it is a vote, and that is because it is a vote for a general election under the fixed—term parliaments act, and under that law, to get to a general election and to change the election date, the government has to win two thirds of the total number of mps, so that is 434 mp5, it is not a simple majority. we know that labour will be abstaining, so they won't ta ke will be abstaining, so they won't take part. the snp and the liberal democrats will vote against, but if all the conservatives vote for it, it will look like a government win, but it won't be a government win because they will not have reached that threshold of 434 votes, 434 mps. so it is much higher threshold than a normal vote, so it sounds a little confusing when the result is read out. that means borisjohnson will not have got his way, which is to get their withdrawal agreement built through, and then to have general election on the 12th of december, and really what we will be looking for after that result is read out is whether the prime

minister stands up to explain what he might do next, because we know that some of the opposition parties, the liberal democrats and the snp, have come up with a plan of their own on the election on the 9th of december which doesn't involve the bill to put forward boris johnson's deal, it doesn't involve that going through parliament because those two parties of course want to stop brexit happening altogether. vicki is there any suggestion that we could get this one line motion put forward tonight, calling for an election, possibly backing the snp and liberal democrat idea of december the 9th? it is all about whether the government decides to ta ke whether the government decides to take that idea on itself. if they decide to do that, they will bring forward a simple bill, and it would have the date in it. now, i understand from speaking to senior liberal democrats that there are still talks going on about how this might happen, because obviously if you are the opposition you can't necessarily bring forward a bill without being given government time

to do it. the government might have to do it. the government might have to do it. the government might have to do it, but both the snp and the liberal democrats would want a commitment from boris johnson that he won't try to continue taking that bill to deliver brexit, the withdrawal agreement bill, through parliament, because there were rumours today that he might try and come back to that. you will remember it got its second reading, that is the first hurdle, really, for a bill to go through parliament. that was passed by a majority of mps, but because they didn't vote for his shortened timetable, he decided not to pursue it. there is nothing to stop him trying again to bring that bill and get it through its other stages, and the liberal democrats and the snp do not want that to happen. so that is the kind of commitment they are looking for before we get to the possibility of any before we get to the possibility of a ny vote before we get to the possibility of any vote on a bill tomorrow, but just to make clear, because it is a bill not emotion, it has to go through all its stages in the commons, crucially, in the house of lords as well. indeed, that is a very important point. does that mean

they could be amendments to that? yes, that was always the reason. speaking to ministers over the last few months about getting a general election, they knew they couldn't reach that two thirds majority because they didn't think they would get labour on side. they did consider the possibility of a bill, but the problem with that is like any other bit of legislation, you can change it, you can amend it, and we know that some of those parties would like votes for 16 to 18—year—olds. clearly if you are going to have an election in december, there is not time to register all those new voters, so it is just not practical register all those new voters, so it isjust not practicalfor register all those new voters, so it is just not practical for that to happen for an election before christmas, so i think the question that the government would ask of the liberal democrats, the snp, is, can you give a commitment not to try to amend or change this bill in any way, labour might try to do it, but then labour votes become slightly releva nt to then labour votes become slightly relevant to this process if the other‘s side with the conservatives. so the official oppositionjeremy corbyn today not sounding that keen on voting for a general election, he

said he doesn't trust the prime minister and he wants to see other things sorted out before he would go down that road. vicki, the liberal democrats and the snp, they feel that december the 9th would be the right date for them, while the government's motion today as per december the 12th. that is only three days' difference. why is that such a big dealfor both three days' difference. why is that such a big deal for both sides? what they say is because they don't want their withdrawal agreement bill to go through, they think by choosing the 9th of december, it would mean that boris johnson the 9th of december, it would mean that borisjohnson doesn't have time to ram that bill through the house of commons, because it would mean this place, parliament, being dissolved last thing on thursday night orfirst dissolved last thing on thursday night or first thing friday morning, so he simply wouldn't have time to do it, and they fear that if it was the 12th of december, then there may be time for him to get that bill through both houses of parliament. it would be pretty difficult to do, and i'm not sure he could manage it without the timetable, the programme motion, to do it, but that is their argument. but some think it is much

more to do with students. they think that lots of students are registered, some of them in both places, their home and their university, but they think that because the term ends about then, a lot of them would have left the university town or city and will be back home, and could swing results in some cities where there is a big university at a big number, large number of students. 0k, we are just waiting for this vote on the government's motion calling for an early general election for december the 12th, and i think it mightjust be coming now. the speaker: order. order. the ayes to the right, 299, the noes to the left, 70. the ayes to the right, 299. the noes to the left, 70, so the ayes have

it, the ayes have it. the ayes have it, the ayes have it. the ayes have it, but the motion has not obtained the majority required under the fixed—term parliaments act 2011, and because... order. because the majority required has not been reached, the noes have it. point of order, the prime minister. the leader of the opposition literally and figuratively has run away from thejudgment of and figuratively has run away from the judgment of the people for the third time he has turned down our offer to get brexit done. in spite offer to get brexit done. in spite of the fact that he and every member of the fact that he and every member of his party of stood on a promise to deliver brexit in this parliament, and i think, frankly, that the electorate will find his behaviour utterly bewildering. but asi behaviour utterly bewildering. but as i said when moving the motion, we will not allow this paralysis to continue, and one way or another, we must proceed straight to an

election. so, later on this evening, the government will give notice of presentation for a short bill for an election on the