south africans have been celebrating their rugby team's crushing victory over england in the world cup final injapan. fans say the springboks' win has united the country more than any political party could — siya kolis is the first black man to captain the national side. a bomb explosion has ripped through tal abyad, a town in northern syria occupied by turkish forces. the turkish government has blamed the kurdish ypg militia group for the attack, which killed at least 13 people. no group has yet claimed responsibility for the deaths. the online property rental company, airbnb, is to ban bookings by guests who intend to use the accomodation for house parties. it follows the deaths of five people in san francisco, where a party ended in a shootout on halloween night. the company says screening of guests will be improved, you're up to date with the headlines. now on bbc news,

it's dateline london. hello and welcome to dateline london. i'm carrie gracie. this week... one of the world's most wanted men blows himself up in a suicide vest to evade us capture, but where does that leave the terror group he led? and yet another brexit deadline has passed without brexit. can a general election now resolve this crisis? my guests today — abdel bari atwan, writer on arab affairs. the veteran new york times reporterjohn fisher burns. broadcaster, maria margaronis, and political commentator adam raphael. welcome to you all and thank you forjoining us. how much does one death

disrupt a terror movement? in 2014, abu bakr al—baghdadi, the leader of thejihadi group islamic state, declared a caliphate in iraq and syria. by the time of his death last weekend, the territory had been lost, his caliphate had crumbled. but is has already declared a new leader and vowed revenge. so, bari, you start us off. tell us what we know about this new leader. the new leader, abu ibrahim al—hashimi al-qurayshi, is actually an ex—saddam hussein man. he could be more brutal than abu bakr al—baghdadi. he is very influential. his name is giving a lot of meanings. when he says al-qurayshi, it means that he comes from quraysh of mecca. when he says al—hashimi, it means

he belong to the prophet muhammad. do you think it's true? do you think they need to kind of add all that to make him look like a direct link back to the prophet? yes, you know, it is a deliberate move from the remmanants of isis. they would like to say, look, al—baghdadi is gone, we have another al—baghdadi and he has more legitimacy, islamic legitimacy in particular. so this is the meaning of it. but isis is not al-qaeda. it is not a one—man show like al-qaeda where osama bin laden was everything. when he disappeared, al-qaeda weakened completely, lost most of its branches. no, isis is different. isis is actually ideology and very strong ideology and they managed to create a precedent in the middle east and the islamic world, to create first a state with a population of more than 7 million. the size of the state

is bigger than britain. it used to have about $1 million income from the oil and gas of syria, so they still have branches in afghanistan and north africa, iraq and syria. the most dangerous thing, isis is still there — the corruption, the lack of good governance and the sectarianism, the anarchy. if you see, there is uprising in iraq and lebanon. we will come back to all of that because there is a lot to unpack there. butjust on this individual, the us president says he knows everything about the successor to al—baghdadi. what do you think about the role that he has played here? if we ask ourselves the question of where does this leave isis and its affiliates, the question of almost equal importance, is where does this leave mr trump, who managed, by the way in which he handled this, to grab defeat from the jaws

of victory, in the sense that his account of the whimpering al—baghdadi is not supported by the joint chief of staff or the commander of central command or by the commander on the ground. all of them said that they do not know where this account comes from. it seems to me that... an excellent story in the new york times, by the way, which quotes liberally from the washington post, quotes a washington post survey saying that there are 13,000 incidents in trump's administration where he made false or misleading statements. it ties to a reuters poll now, of some months old, which says that 41%, if i remember correctly, 41% of the poll respondents believed that trump almost never told the truth. i think this is going to turn out to be a sort

of epigrammatic version of this. he seems to have invented the whimpering al— baghdadi out of whole cloth. it would be a very great relief, if to find that he didn't, but at the moment all the evidence is that he did and he turned what could have been a triumphal moment for the american armed forces and in turn for the american people into a personal issue about his own credulity. yet, do you not think it is a triumphant moment nonetheless, as far as the us military and government are more widely concerned? this is a moment where they did get their man? well, they got their man when they went after al—zarqawi when i was still working in baghdad and they got their man when they went after bin laden, and how much difference has it made? i take bari's point where the circumstances that created these leaders and movements persist,

they haven't changed. we cannot hope that the killing of yet another leader is going to make that much difference. it might have the opposite effect by creating legends. maria, a thought on isis succession? i do not know very much about a successor to al—baghdadi. this comes on the heels of the disaster of the american withdrawal from syria. this opens up syria and the middle east to assad, russia and iran. i sometimes wonder whether the timing of this killing had anything to do with that and whether it was in fact a deliberate timing in orderto reverse... the other thing about timing was the location. he was killed in idlib — what was he doing there?

bari will know more, but he may well have been trying to form alliances wider than isis with al-qaeda, with other groups there. just picking off one man is not going to actually defeat isis. in fact, the americans continue and whoever the leader is, they will go after them. if they offer enough money, in the end, they can probably kill whoever is in the leadership position but they will not kill the group. you can pick off the leaders, but it will still continue as the circumstance which has arisen and has given birth to it. there is a point that has to be made in fairness to trump's role in this. it did follow from his disastrous move to remove american troops from the syrian—turkish border. he made that move, in effect saying that he did not want to spend,

pointlessly spend, any more american military lives in pursuit of unattainable objectives and you would have to say that this whole circumstance rather made that point for him. in doing that, he betrayed the kurds who had been, who have been betrayed so many times by so many powers that it almost does not bear thinking about. bari, i want to come back to this question of is resilience. before we move on to the fertile ground for them to recruit in, let's talk about their structure. i have three points here. the first one, i believe that trump is telling a lot of lies about the capture and the death of al—baghdadi.

he is trying to portray himself as achieving exactly what 0bama achieved to assassinate or kill osama bin laden. the second point, 0k, we managed to kill osama bin laden, and what happened? we actually ended with two more radical, more bloody, more brutal organisations, which is al—nusra and al-qaeda in syria. and we have isis. so what will happen after the death of al—baghdadi? a radical organisation. the third point is that i am really surprised, the americans are now changing the equation. now they are burying these mujahideen terrorists in the sea. in the beginning, they used to parade them. the sons of saddam hussein, when they were killed, we saw their dead bodies and the same thing when gaddafi was killed.

0k, they paraded his body, but we have seen him. now, with the americans a new diversion, we can see that they killed hamza bin laden and we have not seen his body or al—baghdadi's body. and they are burying osama bin laden at sea. why are we not seeing those bodies? why can we not see them? you do not parade bodies on sticks. i think they're right in not doing that. you can bury them, but why in the sea? i want trump to answer that. if we step back from the particulars of this rather awful encounter,

in the deserts of northern syria. it may be that trump could be proven right in a certain sense, which is that the american public is clearly exhausted with its military adventures in the middle east and if this is to be part of the waystation to get troops home, it might play well for him in next year's election. at least, i do not think it will be costly. there will be some net gain and he can claim some credit. forget getting rid of al—baghdadi and if he continues to pull back american troops, however we are aware of what the benefits of the pax americana have been. we are going to have to get used to the fact that america will not any longer be expending the lives of thousands of its own troops in pursuit of unattainable objectives in the middle east. getting back to the question of the resilience of is post this. this ties back to maria and adam's points.

the question of these prisoners. the us already believes that there are lot of is fighters out there in iraq and syria. we have a lot of prisoners and their future is uncertain. presumably, is have already said it actually, there is a duty on muslims trying to spring these fighters from their presence, however informal in northern syria. there are 12,000 of them and they were under the protection of the kurds. now the kurds are completely demoralised. they were let down by the american and by the western governments, so they do not know what to do with those 12,000. if they release them, it will be a disaster. it has a many army here. so i believe that there are also more than 12,000 who have managed to escape. we do not know where they are.

they could be sleeping cells now, waiting for the new leader maybe of isis to ignite the cells. isis is weakened by the death of al—baghdadi, but any long term it could be a disaster and those people could regroup again. there is also the sense in which a terror is being exported to the global south because american security systems are much more powerful. we have seen terror attacks in afghanistan, nigeria and the philippines, which are not such a problem for president trump. i think it is emblematic that the late al—baghdadi was a prisoner of the united states which i visited at a time that he was there. none of us knew who al— baghdadi was then. if you take these people and release them, there will be more amongst them, there will be more amongst them who will come back to haunt us again.

you are familiar with the middle east and also you, adam. the middle east is boiling now. anarchy is everywhere now. there is uprising in iraq. iraq is supposed to be a model, according to the american narrative, after saddam hussein is dead. look at iraq now. there is a revolution in iraq. there is a revolution in lebanon n a way or another. and we have seen two prime ministers resigned this week. exactly. that is the best environment for isis. this is the best environment for terrorism to actually start again, so it is actually true that political islam is receding a bit, it is true that maybe we do not have the same wave of political islam as ten years ago, but i believe this kind of anarchy and dissatisfaction and, as i said, the same problems out there. and maybe getting worse. unemployment, inequality,

sectarianism, frustration. corruption. their withdrawal of all of these european powers from the region has increased the destabilisation. we have a responsibility and the fact the government has refused to accept any of theirwomen the government has refused to accept any of their women and children from these camps, is a sign we are abdicating. it isn't just these camps, is a sign we are abdicating. it isn'tjust trump these camps, is a sign we are abdicating. it isn't just trump who isa abdicating. it isn't just trump who is a total and absolute disaster. the european governments and the british government has a responsibility here, which they have not lived up to. but also trump, in a few seconds. what he said to us last week he said, i am actually sending so many oil companies to go and run the syrian oil.

the syrian gas. this is occupation and will give ammunition to these radical organisations that make the cdm gas. to control deal and sell it and we had a lot of reports that american troops are facilitating the smuggling of syrian oil and earning $3 million a month and they want to compensate their losses when they finance an arm the kurds. this is also playing into the hands of the successor of al—baghdadi. we are going to have to leave it there. it is also worth mentioning that at the end of this part of a discussion on any audio, in which isis announced the succession, it also said that it was expanding east to west. as we have heard, that is in some ways, to some of you, a credible claim and the risks are there. we have to move on now because we are coming closer to home to look at the domestic political situation in the uk.

halloweenjokes aside, it is no laughing matter for governments to keep setting deadlines and breaking them. for all his "do or die" promises and national no—deal planning, a british prime minister has been forced into a third brexit extension. borisjohnson hopes that this is an extension with a difference: a general election to transform the parliamentary arithmetic and break the brexit paralysis. but will it? adam? 0bviously boris is in trouble and his promises. he has broken its promises all over the place. the fact that he has failed to get us out on october 31st, i do not think it will damage has prospects with the electorate. however he has embarked on a fantastic gamble and the idea that somehow the tories are going to emerge with an overall majority —

make a fantastic gamble. when they had abandoned the dup, the northern irish allies, and got rid of ten of their most loyal and prominent tory supporters and delineated the scottish nationalists and so they are likely to pick up the 20 seats in scotland, so they begin a0 seats down right from the beginning almost. if they're going to get an overall majority, that requires a huge swing in these northern labour seats at the moment. i frankly do not see it at the moment. i think, despite the polls showing the tories way, way ahead, i think the opinion is very, very volatile. i think boris may make it and i suspect he want and i suspect he won't and we will have a hung parliament. as bad a mess as we are in now. just before we look all the way to december the 12th. we saw the interview with nigel farage and president trump. president trump criticised boris johnson's withdrawal deal with the eu. how damaging is that that he got the deal, the bit of paper that he waved and now his american ally is saying

it was not worth it? well, i think it is incredibly damaging. the number of people who really want to be closely associated with president trump in this country are very, very few. the impact of farage on the conservative vote, particularly in tory — backed labour marginals could be very considerable and the tories could lose several seats with that intervention. i think boris's campaign is potentially in serious trouble. i don't think we have quite come to that. so many things can happen in the next six weeks. which can change the landscape totally. at the moment, i think he has embarked on this gamble and rates at the moment, i think he has embarked on this gamble and right throughouthis political career, he isjust a gambler and he has that knack because in london he pulled up to elections,

they were supposed to judge british politics from. he may appeal to a london electorate, but does he appeal in places like hull, in north shields and on tyneside? that is quite a different area. what do you think maria? we have heard trump say in the past few days that in the past few days that nigel farage together are an unstoppable force. what you think of his gamble? i agree with adam. i think it is really a gamble and anyone who makes predictions at this point is a fool. i also think it is important to remember why this election, which i don't think anyone in the country is really tremendously enthusiastic about in the middle december is... because borisjohnson decided, rather than submitting his withdrawal agreement for a full parliamentary scrutiny, he pulled it. he could have let it go through the full parliamentary process, but i think he was afraid

it would be watered down in his way, which would lose him his right—wing support in his party and give fodder to the brexit party, which is why i think we are having an election now. i think once again brexit as a metaphor for some different things, for different people, whether it is about watering down the european union's environmental and working and labour regulations, whether it is about taxes, whatever it is about, it cannot... brexit and all the other issues at stake in the election do not map onto one another and i think we're heading for a great confusion here. i think it is important, i do think there is a lot at stake. i think the real issues that have affected people's lives, welfare cuts, the crumbling of the nhs, education, all of these things are addressed under a right—wing tory government, which is what we may be getting

if boris johnson does pull it off. at the same time, i don't think it is clear enough for people to vote those issues. borisjohnson says vote tory or get to jeremy corbyn. we have not talked about labour enough. do think that is going to be a compelling enough message to voters? the reading i take, which is very pedestrian of the public mood, is that people are tired of this unhinged world we have talked about the distant world that is unhinged. our own world here at home is deeply unhinged. people are absolutely exhausted, divided and there is a real risk that instead of the rallying to the tory flag, and the brexit

flag, that borisjohnson foresees that it could well be that there will be millions of people in this country who are so fed up with this and that they come down on the opposite side of this and say, let's go back, let's scrap the whole thing, which would of course empower the liberal democrats more than anyone else. in turn, lead to possibly denying johnson a majority he needs. whatever comes of this, it is not going to be an end of the division, the confusion, the unhinged nature of the state. because even a sanctioned, greed, withdrawal agreement only takes us about 100 yards down the road in this marathon race. we have then got years and years when at the same issues are going to be thrashed out and i find the whole situation very discouraging. bari? to be honest, the international community is fed up of this brexit.

if you mention brexit three times to them, they will think. to them, they will faint. the british media, if you look at it, there's only one subject. without that maybe we are now heading to an election, we will have more real concentration on the real issues, which actually are very important to the british people. i have been in this country for a0 years, usually every election campaign, usually as national health, education, law and order, immigration. none of these issues are actually major or have the priority in this coming election. and it could be a hung parliament, meaning that brexit could be with us for another ten years. it is awful. these issues will come through in election. i agree that the london media are obsessed by brexit, but you may be absolutely sure that in large parts of the country that the issues that you have mentioned are the issues

that they will want to talk about and the politicians will respond. i have no doubt about that. and yet, adam, surely if everybody talks about them anyway around the table that people are saying, any divisive way that creates more confusion and we do not get a clear outcome on this huge brexit crisis that we face, are we any further on? probably not. the difficulty that i see is the conservatives have always done best as a one nation party, ie a moderate centrist party appealing across of the political spectrum. but borisjohnson has appointed the most right—wing cabinet that i can certainly recall in my time and you have had large numbers of moderate tories, particularly women, deserting politics as they cannot abide by the abuse and the way that the tory party is moving. matthew paris today, a long—time conservative, decided today

that he is going off as well i think that is damaging to boris. that is why i really wonder whether he is going to secure the sort of majority he is going to gamble on. we shall see but i'm going to have to leave it there. i'm not sure we could have avoided that sombre note. that's it for dateline london for this week. we're back next week at the same time. goodbye. hello. thankfully sunday isn't looking stormy. that said, it will still be blustery around northern scotland, some of the coasts of south—west england, where in fact, later on in the day the winds will start to pick up once again. there will be some sunshine around, parts of wales and southern england, the midlands, into east anglia

later, northern ireland and south—west scotland. a lot of cloud across northern england giving some rain at times and through eastern parts of scotland. a spell of rain running up toward south—west england and south—west wales later on in the day. ten to 1a celsius for the top temperature. sunday night into monday morning, low pressure makes another push at us with this area of rain, including some heavier bursts heading further north and more rain, running into parts of eastern scotland as well. temperatures not going down too far. so into monday then, it is low pressure in charge. across southern parts, some sunshine, but the chance of catching a heavy, maybe thundery shower. and for northern england, northern ireland and scotland, a fair amount of cloud around and you could well see some rain for a time as well. goodbye.

welcome to bbc news — i'm james reynolds. our top stories. a prominent indigenous leader is shot dead in a protected zone in the north of brazil — authorities blame illegal loggers. iraqi security forces fire tear gas and live ammunition to disperse tens of thousands of anti—government protesters — in the biggest turnout since the conflict broke out a month ago. aianb promises closer monitoring of potential guests after five people were killed at a halloween house party in san francisco. celebrations for south africans, after the springboks crush england in the rugby world cup — for many a victory that goes beyond the sport.