hello and welcome to dateline london. i'm carrie gracie. this week... one of the world's most wanted men blows himself up in a suicide vest to evade us capture, but where does that leave the terror group he led? and yet another brexit deadline has passed without brexit. can a general election now resolve this crisis? my guests today — abdel bari atwan, writer on arab affairs; veteran new york times reporter john fisher burns; broadcaster maria margaronis

and political commentator adam raphael. welcome to you all and thank you forjoining us. how much does one death disrupt a terror movement? in 2014, abu bakr al—baghdadi, the leader of thejihadi group islamic state, declared a caliphate in iraq and syria. by the time of his death last weekend the territory had been lost, his caliphate had crumbled. but is has already declared a new leader and vowed revenge. so, barry, you start us off. tell us what we know about this new leader. the new leader is abu ibrahim al—hashimi al-qurayshi, he is actually an ex—saddam hussein man. he could be more brutal than abu bakr al—baghdadi. he is very influential. his name is giving a lot of meanings. when he says "al-qurayshi", it means that he comes from mecca, and when he says "al—hashimi", it means he is of the prophet.

do you believe that is true or do they have two add all of that to make it look like a deliberate link back to the profit? —— do they have to add all of that? it is a deliberate move. they would like to say that they have more legitimacy, islamic legitimacy in particular. this is the meaning of it. isis is not al-qaeda. it is not a one—man show like al-qaeda, where osama bin laden was everything. when he disappeared, al-qaeda weakened completely. isis is different. isis is about the ideology and very strong ideology and they managed to create a precedent in the middle east and the islamic world to create first a state with a population of more than 7 million. the size of the state is bigger than britain.

it used to have about $1 billion income from the oil and gas of syria, so they still have branches in afghanistan and north africa. —— £1 million. the most dangerous thing is that the incubator, that supported it, it is still there. isis is still there. the corruption, the lack of good governance and the sectarianism, the anarchy. if you see that there is an uprising in iraq and lebanon. we will come back to all of that because there is a lot to unpack there. just on this individual, the us president says he knows everything about the successor to al—baghdadi. what do you think about the role that he has played here? if we ask ourselves the question of where does this leave isis and its affiliates, the question of almost equal

importance is where does this lead mr trump, who managed, by the way in which he handled this, to grab a defeat from the jaws of victory in the sense that his account of the whimpering al—baghdadi is not supported by the joint chief of staff or the commander of central command or by the commander on the ground. all of them said that they do not know where this account comes from. it seems to me that... by the way, an excellent story in the new york times, which quotes liberally from the washington post, quotes a washington post survey saying that there are 13,000 incidents in trump's administration where he made false or misleading statements. it ties that to a poll by reuters, some months old. it says that 41%, if i remember correctly, 41% of the poll respondents believed that trump almost never told the truth.

i think this is going to turn out to be a sort of epigrammatic version of this. he seems to have invented the whimpering al— baghdadi out of whole cloth. it would be a very great relief to find that he did not. but all the evidence at the moment suggests that he did. he turned what could have been a triumphal moment for the american armed forces and the american people into a personal issue about his own credulity. yet, do you not think it is a triumphant moment nonetheless, as far as the us military and government are more widely concerned? this is a moment where they did get their man? well, they got their man when they went after al—zarqawi when i was still working in baghdad and bin laden and how much difference has it made? i think the point where the circumstances that created these leaders and movements are the same. they have not changed. we cannot hope that the killing of yet another leader is going to make that much difference.

it might have the opposite effect by creating legends. maria, a thought on isis succession? i do not know very much about a successor to al—baghdadi. this comes on the heels of the disaster of the american withdrawal from syria. this opens up syria and the middle east to assad, russia and iran. i sometimes wonder whether the timing of this killing had anything to do with that and whether it was in fact a deliberate timing in orderto reverse... the other thing about timing was the location. he was killed in idlib — what was he doing there? he may well have been trying

to form alliances wider than isis with al-qaeda, with other groups there. just picking off one man is not going to actually defeat isis. in fact, the americans continue and whoever the leader is, they will go after them. in the end, they can probably kill whoever is in the leadership position but they will not kill the group. it will still continue as the circumstance which has arisen and has given birth to it. there is a point that has to be made in fairness to trump's role in this. —— there is a point that has to be made in fairness to trump's role in this. it did follow from his disastrous move to remove american troops from the syrian—turkish border. he made that move, in effect saying that he did not want to spend, pointlessly spend, any more american military lives in pursuit of unattainable objectives

and you would have to say that this whole circumstance rather made that point for him. in doing that, he betrayed the kurds who had been, who have been betrayed so many times by so many powers that it almost does not bear thinking about. i want to come back to this question of is resilience. before we move on to the fertile ground for them to recruit in... let's talk about their own organisational structure, the ideological structure, postal baghdad, and the money. —— post al—baghdadi. i have three points here. the first one, i believe that trump is telling a lot of lies about the capture and the death of al—baghdadi. he is trying to portray himself as achieving exactly what obama achieved to assassinate or kill

osama bin laden. the second point, 0k, we managed to kill osama bin laden, and what happened? we actually ended with two more radical, more bloody, more brutal organisations, which is al—nusra and al-qaeda in syria. so what will happen after the death of al—baghdadi? a radical organisation. the third point is that, i am really surprised the americans are now changing the equation. now they are burying these mujahideen terrorists in the sea. in the beginning, they used to parade them. the sons of saddam hussein, when they were killed, we saw their dead bodies and the same thing when gaddafi was killed.

0k, they buried his body, but we have seen him. now, with the americans a new diversion, we can see that they killed hamza bin laden and we have not seen his body or al—baghdadi's body. and they are burying osama bin laden at sea. why are we not seeing those bodies? are you suggesting that they might not have in fact...? are you suggesting that they might not have in fact. . . ? honestly, are you suggesting that they might not have in fact...? honestly, i don't know... isis has confirmed this dog basic western pr, ..you do not parade bodies on sticks. i think they're right in not doing that. you can bury them, but why in the sea? i want trump to answer that. if we step back from the particulars of this rather awful encounter, in the deserts of northern syria, it may be that trump could be proven right in a certain sense, which is that the american public

is clearly exhausted with its military adventures in the middle east and if this is to be part of the waystation to get troops home, it might play well for him in next year's election. —— isis has confirmed this... at least, i do not think it will be costly. there will be some net gain and he can claim some credit. forget getting rid al—baghdadi and if he continues to pull back american troops, however we are aware of what the benefits of the pax americana have been. we are going to have to get used to the fact that america will not any longer be extending the lives of thousands of its own troops in pursuit of unattainable objectives in the middle east. getting back to the question of the resilience of is. this ties back to maria and adam's points.

the question of these prisoners. the us already believes that there are lot of is fighters out there in iraq and syria. we have a lot of prisoners and their future is uncertain. presumably, is have already said it actually, there is a duty on muslims trying to spin these fighters from their presence, however informal in northern syria. there are 12,000 of them and they were under the protection of the kurds. now the kurds are completely demoralised. they were let down by the american and by the western governments, so they do not know what to do with those 12,000. if they release them, it will be a disaster. it has a many army here. so i believe that there are also more than 12,000 who have managed to escape. we do not know where they are. they could be sleeping sales now, waiting for the new leader maybe of isis to ignite the cells. isis is weakened by the death of al—baghdadi, but any long term it could be a disaster and those people could regroup again.

—— sleeping cells. there is also the sense in which terror is being exported to the global south because american security systems are much more powerful. we have seen terror attacks in afghanistan, nigeria and the philippines, which are not such a problem for president trump. i think it is emblematic that the late al—baghdadi was a prisoner of the united states which i visited at a time that he was there none of us knew who al— baghdadi was then. you are familiar with the middle east and also you, adam. the middle east is boiling now.

anarchy is everywhere now. there is uprising in iraq. iraq is supposed to be a model, according to the american narrative, after saddam hussein is dead. look at iraq now. there is a revolution in iraq. there is a revolution in lebanon any way or another. and we have seen two prime ministers resigned this week. exactly. that is the best environment for isis. this is the best environment for terrorism to actually start again, so it is actually true that political islam is receding a bit, it is true that maybe we do not have the same wave of political islam as ten years ago, but i believe this kind of anarchy and dissatisfaction and, as i said, the same problems out there. and maybe getting worse. unemployment, inequality, sectarianism, frustration. corruption. the pull—out of these powers from the region

has increased the destabilisation. we have a responsibility and the fact that the british government has refused to accept any of the women and children back from these caamps is another sign that we are abdicating. it isn'tjust donald trump, who, frankly, is a total and absolute disaster. european governments and particularly the british government have a responsibility here, which they have not lived up to. but also trump, a few seconds: what he said to us last week he said, i am actually sending so many oil companies to go and run the syrian oil. the city gas. this is occupation. —— the syrian oil, the syrian gas. this is occupation.

and will give ammunition to these radical organisations that make the cdm gas. to control deal and sell it and we had a lot of reports that american troops are facilitating the smuggling of syrian oil and earning $3 million a month and they want to compensate their losses when they finance and arm the kurds. this is also playing into the hands of the successor of al—baghdadi. we are going to have to leave it there. it is also worth mentioning that at this part of a discussion that in the audio, in which isis announced the succession, it also said that it was expanding east to west. as we have heard, that is in some ways, to some of you, a credible claim and the risks are there. we have to move on now because we are coming closer to home

to look at the domestic political situation in the uk. halloweenjokes aside, it is no laughing matter for governments to keep setting deadlines and breaking them. for all his "do or die" promises and national no—deal planning, a british prime minister has been forced into a third brexit extension. he hopes that this is an extension with a difference: a general election to transform the parliamentary arithmetic and break the brexit paralysis. but will it achieve these things? adam ? obviously boris is in trouble and his promises. but he has broken his promises all over the place. the fact that he has failed to get us out by the 31st, i do not think it will damage has prospects with the electorate. however he has embarked on a fantastic gamble and the idea that somehow the tories are going to emerge with an overall majority.

when they had abandoned the dup, the northern irish allies, and got rid of ten of their most loyal and prominent tory supporters and delineated the scottish nationalists and so they are likely to pick up the 20 seats in scotland, so the tories begin a0 seats down right from the beginning almost. if they're going to get an overall majority, that requires a huge swing in these northern labour seats at the moment. i frankly do not see it at the moment. i think, despite the polls showing the tories way, way ahead, i think the opinion is very, very volatile. i think boris may make it but i suspect he want and we will have a hung parliament. and as bad a mess as we are in now. just before we look all the way to december the 12th. we saw the interview with nigel farage and president trump. president trump criticised boris johnson's withdrawal deal with the eu. how damaging is that that he got the deal, the bit of paper that he waved and now his american ally is saying it was not worth it? well, i think it is

incredibly damaging. i think the number of people who really want to be closely associated with president trump in this country are very, very few. the impact of farage on the conservative vote, particularly in tory—labour marginals could be very considerable and the tories could lose several seats with that intervention. i think boris's campaign is potentially in serious trouble. despite this huge poll lead. i don't think we have quite come to that. so many things can happen in the next six weeks. which can change the landscape totally. but at the moment, i think he has embarked on this gamble and he is — right throughout his personal and political career, he isjust a gambler and he has that

knack because in london he pulled up to elections, they were supposed to judge british politics from. he may appeal to a london electorate, but does he appeal in places like hull, in north shields and on tyneside? that is quite a different area. what do you think maria? we have heard trump say in the past few days that johnson and nigel farage together are an unstoppable force. borisjohnson says, i am an unstoppable borisjohnson says, i am an u nstoppa ble force borisjohnson says, i am an unstoppable force on my own, with the tory party, i am not doing a pa ct the tory party, i am not doing a pact with the brexit party. what you think of his gamble? i agree with adam. i think it is really a gamble and anyone who makes predictions at this point is a fool. i also think it is important to remember why this election, which i don't think anyone in the country is really tremendously enthusiastic about in the middle of december, is because borisjohnson decided,

rather than submitting his withdrawal agreement for a full parliamentary scrutiny, he pulled it. he could have let it go through the full parliamentary process, but i think he was afraid it would be watered down in his way, which would lose him his right—wing support in his party and give fodder to the brexit party, which is why i think we are having an election now. i think once again brexit as a metaphor for some a different thing is, for different people, whether it is about watering down the european union's environmental and working and labour regulations, whether it is about taxes, whatever it is about, it cannot... brexit and all the other issues at stake in this election do not map onto one another and i think we're heading for a great confusion here. i think it is important, i do think there is an event as a stake. i think the real issues that have affected people's lives, austerity, welfare cuts, the crumbling of the nhs, education, all of these things are at—risk under a right—wing tory government, which is what we may be getting if boris johnson does pull it off. at the same time, i don't think it is clear enough

for people to vote others issues. —— at the same time, i don't think it is clear enough for people to vote on those issues. borisjohnson says vote tory or getjeremy corbyn. we have not talked about labour enough. do think that is going to be a compelling enough message to voters? you would think that there could hardly be a more propitious moment for a new tory prime minister then to face socialist jeremy corbyn. but the reading i take, which is very pedestrian of the public mood, is that people are tired of this unhinged world we have talked about the distant world that is unhinged. our own world here at home is deeply unhinged. we know a couple of things: people are absolutely

exhausted, they are divided, and there is a real risk that instead of rallying to the tory flag, and the brexit flag, that borisjohnson sees, that it could well be that there will be millions of people in this country who are so fed up with this and that they come down on the opposite side of this and say, let's go back, let's scrap the whole thing, which would of course empower the liberal democrats more than anyone else. in turn, lead to possibly denying johnson a majority he needs. whatever comes of this, it is not going to be an end of the division, the confusion, the unhinged nature of the state. because even a sanctioned agreed withdrawal agreement only takes us about 100 yards down the road in this marathon race. we have then got years and years when these same issues are going to be thrashed out and i find the whole situation very discouraging. barry? to be honest, the international

community is fed up of this brexit. people, really, if you mention brexit three times to them, they will faint! the british media, if you look at it, there's only one subject. we thought maybe we are now heading to an election, we will have more real concentration on the real issues, which actually are very important to the british people. i have been in this country for a0 years, usually every election campaign, usually: national health, education, law and order, immigration. none of these issues are actually major or have the priority in this coming election! and it could be a hung parliament, meaning that brexit could be with us for another ten years. it is awful. don't despair — these issues will come through in an election. i agree that the london media are obsessed by brexit, but you may be absolutely sure that in large parts of the country

that the issues that you have mentioned are the issues that they will want to talk about and the politicians will respond. i have no doubt about that. and yet, adam, surely if everybody talks about them anyway around the table that people are saying, in a divisive way that creates more confusion and we do not get a clear outcome on this huge brexit crisis that we face, are we any further on? probably not. the difficulty that i see is the conservatives have always done best as a one nation party, ie, a moderate centrist party appealing right across of the political spectrum. but borisjohnson has appointed the most right—wing cabinet that i can certainly recall in my time and you have had large numbers of moderate tories, particularly women, deserting politics as they cannot abide by the abuse and the way that the tory party is moving. matthew parris today, a long—time

conservative, he was an aide to margaret thatcher, decided today that he is going off as well i think that is damaging to boris. that is why i really wonder whether he is going to secure the sort of majority he is going to gamble on. we shall see but i'm going to have to leave it there. i'm sorry that we left it on a fairly sombre note. i'm not sure we could have avoided that sombre note. that's it for dateline london for this week. we're back next week at the same time. goodbye. hello, we started the weekend on a pretty wild note, severe gale winds across parts of britain, disruption and damage and heavy rain, with some fresh flood warnings and faults. a

lot, today, less windy, and quite a bit of sunshine. the reason for that, the area of low pressure, we had that yesterday, filling and weakening, and we will continue to have that. looking to the west, the next area of low pressure, further wind and rain through tonight and into for some of us. the rest of the afternoon, staying dry for most, you can see plenty of sunshine around, rained across north—east england, and intervals eastern scotland, breezy here, wind starting to pick up, light wind, and with the sunshine, highs of 12 to 1a degrees, should not feel too bad, closer to 11 degrees for most of scotland. this evening and through the night, more unsettled, the area of low pressure begins to sweep in, bringing showers, long spells of rain, england and wales, some of it can be heavy, wind will be picking up can be heavy, wind will be picking up across can be heavy, wind will be picking up across the south coast, breezy and work for the east of scotland, in between, some dry spells,

temperatures ranging from five to 9 degrees. the new working week, area of low pressure, slap bang on top of us, strong wind to the north, fairly strong winds to the south, lighter wind in its core, plenty of showers spiralling around. some of these could be heavy, rumble of thunder mixed into some of them, frequent across the south coast, it will be windy once again, particularly in the south—west and windy and wet across eastern scotland. rainfall total starting to mount up, best of the sun shone for western scotland, showers there, temperatures 11 to 13 degrees. on tuesday, subtle changes, low pressure slipping away, taking showers with it, increasing sunshine, wind coming down from the north, allowing cool air to move in. struggling to get to double figures in the north. 11, 12, 13 in the south, you can see, wednesday onwards, blue colour migrates south across the uk, turning quite chilly, for most of us. temperatures

remaining in single figures, and also showers and long spells of rain as well.

this is bbc news. i'm ben brown. the headlines at midday: the brexit party leader, nigel farage, says he is not going to stand as a candidate in next month's general election. do i fight a seat, try to get myself into parliament, or do i serve the calls better traversing the length and breadth of the united kingdom supporting 600 candidates? and i've decided the latter course is the right one. the government confirms the benefits freeze introduced by the conservatives three years ago will end next april. labour promises to make every home in the uk more energy—efficient if it wins the election. the vietnamese community comes togetherfor a vigil for the 39 people found dead in a lorry in essex. air bnb introduces a ban on so called ‘party houses', after 5 people were shot dead in san francisco at a property booked through its website.