hello. this is bbc news ' the 'the welsh hills. there has been with rachel schofield. the headlines: over the welsh hills. there has been some sunshine. in the extreme the conservatives will pledge not to raise income tax, south—east of england, here in kent. national insurance contributions or vat when they publish that is the exception to what has their election manifesto soon. been a generally cloudy rule. we are seeing skies brightening in a few places and the rain is clearing away labour has pledged to compensate from the north—east of scotland. nearly four million women who lost out when their state there is rain arriving by the end of pension age rose from 60 to 66. the day and this is where we will see the weather changing, overnight tonight around that area of low five teenagers have been arrested after a large brawl pressure with rain coming in from at a cinema in birmigham last night the south—west and picking up the which saw a number of breeze as well, helping to break the police officers injured. cloud. it should be frost—free and a voters in hong kong have turned out in large numbers to vote mild mitral temperatures of four to in local elections, seen 10 degrees. the range northward and as a test of support for the territory's chief executive, carrie lam. eastward tomorrow. some rain tomorrow in the morning for northern ireland and most of the rain is for england and wales. it brightens up tomorrow in the far south—west and the best chance of sunshine likely to be in the far north of scotland temperatures at 13 degrees. is that more on one of those headline stories, and five teenagers have been

web front moves away, another one arrested after a large brawl arrived with quite a deep area of at a cinema in birmigham yesterday evening which saw a number low pressure, this contains tropical of police officers injured. evening which saw a number air, i bit of tropical storm our correspondentjenny kumah is at the scene. what more can you tell us? many of sebastien with that and that is those here last night where families currently in the mid—atlantic. the with young children. they had come to see the new frazen film. —— strongest winds are in south wales and the south—west of england. that rain is likely to be heavierfor a frozen film. police say when they while on tuesday, and will push its arrived here at this leisure park in way northwards towards the central out of scotland. we will see further showers and outbreaks of incoming in birmingham they were met with hostility and they had to use tasers amongst the at a crossing in and to restore order. they recovered two wales. 13 and 1a degrees and on the machetes during the trouble and they whole those temperatures will be double figures. we still have that later found a nice machetes during the trouble and they laterfound a nice nearby. in terms low pressure around as we head into the middle part of the week so rain of injuries, they say seven police never too far away and the weather officers received minorfacial front will be stuck in the injuries. today, more details have north—east of scotland, that will bring wet weather to the highlands emerged of those five people who and islands. quite heavy rain for a we re emerged of those five people who were arrested in connection with this incident. they include a while perhaps across the southern 13—year—old girl who was arrested pennines and wrinklies away from the south—east of england. a messy day. still mild of course, those suspicion of assaulting police.

alongside a 14—year—old boy and a temperatures at ten to 12 degrees. we'll see the weather changing 14—year—old girl and a 19—year—old towards the latter part of the week as we push away a lot of that cloud, man. a 14—year—old boy was also things brightening up with sometime arrested on suspicion of obstructing ivy to return by the end of the week as it turns drier but a little bit the police. the police say they are colder —— sunshine to return by the 00:02:17,365 --> 4294966103:13:29,430 end of the week. trying to find out the reasons for the trouble and they would like anyone who took any photos or any video footage to forward it on to them so that they can use that to help them make more arrests. thank you very much. as we've been hearing, there's been a record turnout for the district elections in hong kong, which will give an indication of levels of support for the government, after months of pro—democracy protests. opposition parties hope the results will reflect public anger about how the chief executive, carrie lam, has handled the demonstrations. from hong kong, our correspondent jonathan head reports. the queues formed early and ran long right around the block in taikoo shing. just a local ballot,

true, the relatively powerless district councils, but the significance of this first full test of public opinion since hong kong's crisis began more than five months ago was not lost on these voters. there are so many people here. many people are actually waiting for this opportunity to say something. it is like approving or disapproving the legitimacy of the protest. it is an election, one way or the other, so it shows that people in hong kong believe in elections. that is very important. it is not long since the police were doing nightly battle with black—clad protesters. today they were deployed to secure the polling stations. but there was no sign of trouble here. the opposition wants this election to go smoothly, in the hope that a decisive swing in its favour might force chief executive carrie lam, here casting her vote, to make the concessions she steadfastly refused to make in the face of protests which have brought

hong kong to its knees. it is already eight hours since voting started and still there are these impressive lines of voters at polling stations. everyone here knows this is about a lot more than just local councils. they also know that whatever the result of this election, everything depends, in the end, on whether china can be moved to support concessions. yet still, you can see how important it is for them that their voices are heard. the university campus which saw such dramatic confrontations only a week ago is quiet now. ringed by police, the last few determined activists are hiding on its upperfloors refusing to surrender. this stage of the protest is all but over. but once the election is done, the anti—government campaign will surely resume somewhere else. jonathan head, bbc news, hong kong.

more now on the election campaign, and the liberal democrat leader jo swinson has said there has "been a squeeze" on her party during the campaign, but that she is "not conceding yet". speaking on the bbc‘s andrew marr show this morning, swinson also attacked jeremy corbyn's neutral stance on brexit, and said the liberal democrats priority was to stop brexit from happening. well, of course the liberal democrats want to stop brexit and we will be campaigning to stop brexit. ok, if that is the case, jeremy corbyn is offering a referendum, you may not like every aspect of what he is saying but he is offering a referendum and borisjohnson very much isn't, doesn't that mean you are inevitably going to have to lean towards the labour party and help them form a government, vote things through for them, rather than the conservatives? well, first of all, as things stand, as things stand, borisjohnson is on course to get a majority and liberal democrats are the best placed party to stop it. oh, you think that is what is happening at the moment?

if you look at the polls right now, that is what they say. there is, obviously, two and a half weeks to go in this campaign and i am working very hard to change that situation... you are not conceding yet but you think that he is going to win? of course i am not conceding yet. liberal democrats are campaigning hard right across the country and we are making real inroads, but we need to make sure we win those seats from the conservatives and we are in a position to do that in a way that labour simply is not. if he doesn't win an overall majority and he comes to you saying, "listen, jo, i never thought... i don't want to do this, i am doing this through gritted teeth, jo, but to get my deal through, to get my withdrawal agreement through, i am prepared to offer the liberal democrats a referendum on that deal afterwards," what do you say to him? look, i am not putting borisjohnson orjeremy corbyn into number ten, but if there is a law in parliament... the voters might. if there is a law in parliament that i can vote for that makes sure that the brexit deal is put to the public with the opportunity to remain, i will vote for that. we have always said we will vote for that. 0h, 0k. so if borisjohnson tries to do a deal with you whereby

he gets his withdrawal agreement through the house of commons, he delivers his promise to quote, "get brexit done," but in return for that, he gives you a referendum, you say yes? i am not doing a deal, andrew. i am going to vote for the things that i am standing up for, the things that i believe in, and i believe we should stop brexit and it may be that a people's vote is the best way to do that. we have campaigned for that for more than three years and so, as we have said, over the last year, if we can put a specific brexit deal to the british public with the option to remain, liberal democrats will support having a people's vote. we will vote for that legislation. the latest from the lib dems there. meanwhile, the snp leader nicola sturgeon has said she wouldn't accept waiting two to three years for a labour government to grant a scottish independence referendum. speaking on sky news this morning, sturgeon said that it is for the ‘scottish people'

to decide the timing of a referendum, not westminster. my my position and the one i would expect labour to respect is if there is an independence referendum and the timing of that is up to the scottish government to decide, not westminster. think of ourselves on the 13th of december, labour are forming a minority government, despite what the polls think, are they really going to turn the back ona they really going to turn the back on a chance to stop posterity, stop welfare cuts, get rid of you soon universal credit, just because they wa nt to universal credit, just because they want to block the right of the scottish people to decide the future? the latest there from nicola sturgeon. we can show you the scene live in telford because we are expecting the conservatives to launch their election manifesto this afternoon. the stage is set but the room at the moment is just starting to fill up but still some way to go. we are expecting to hear from boris johnson and 2pm. he will be preceded

byjames johnson and 2pm. he will be preceded by ja mes cleverly, johnson and 2pm. he will be preceded by james cleverly, the party chairman. we will bring you live coverage of that in the next few minutes, hopefully. james cleverly expected to speak at 1:50pm and the prime minister and 2pm. while it may not be an election headline—grabber, like brexit or the nhs, the issue of childcare remains hugely important to millions of families. john maguire has been talking to parents and care providers about their concerns and what they'd like to see done to help. have you had a nice day? that's a nice cuddle! it's home time for libby. as for all parents returning for work, forjess, finding the nursery place was the first hurdle. it's quite difficult to get into nursery. so we put her down here on the waiting list when she was about a month old. so just to make sure we got a place. so i looked at a couple of nurseries around the area, so obviously it being convenient

was obviously quite critical. but we really liked this one when we looked around. there were a couple of things about it. itjust seemed quite relaxed, the children seemed happy. i like the fact it is in the community centre. downstairs and helen is picking up her son leo. once a place has been secured, the next challenge is paying for it. we're in a fortunate position, we've got two professionals in our household, which between mortgage costs and childcare costs, even we find that there is not a lot of excess at the end of the month. so i think for people with a lower income it is hugely challenging and i know a lot of people in that category who have, unfortunately, not had the choice or the luxury of being able to go back to workjust because of the cost of childcare. this is a bristol nursery run as a social enterprise, with profits going back into the community centre where it's housed. it provides up to 63 places, employs almost 30 staff, and was set up to meet strong local demand.

we know that it's a growing demographic of working families. people are making a choice to buy into all the social elements that we are able to bring. so notjust a nursery, but they know what they will get high quality staff, they will have well—paid staff, the low turnover of staff, and it's a consistent place that's going to stay open. that's a very important factor for a lot of families as well. availability and affordability are the two key factors. research by the family charity quorum puts the average cost of a nursery place for an under two at £127 per week, more than £6,600 per year. and it's rising above the rate of inflation. we want all parents to have choices about how they balance working and caring. parents will always know what is best for them and their family, but what's tragic for us as a society is if parents are really want to work, who have the skills and talents to work, are locked out of the workforce by unaffordable or unavailable childcare. it's also worth saying

that we know from huge, many years of research now, that childcare is good for children. children who attend a high—quality nursery go on to do better in their gcses and beyond. so this is a good investment for all of us. the nursery beneath christ church in bristol has been a part of the local community here for 43 years. as the children role play in the garden, if the staff had a magic wish, it would be to simplify childcare payment. i think the funding needs to be increased. i think it's a very low amount. as i said, for us as a charity it's not an issue, but for other places that have got high costs, high staff costs, that then is a real thing. so i think if you are going to be giving more hours, you need to be giving more money per hour. and that's a real problem for lots of people. childcare may not be the main headline grabber of this particular general election, but it remains an important issue for parents, for communities, and for the politicians seeking to represent them —

now and in the future. john maguire, bbc news, bristol. as we have been saying, the conservatives are about to launch their manifesto for the general election at an event in telford. borisjohnson will promise to bring the brexit bill back before parliament before christmas, if the conservatives win a majority. waiting there like a coiled spring is norman's mess. —— waiting there is norman smith. —— waiting there is norman smithlj think rusty spring is a more accurate description, coiled not so much because there is a slight sense that this is not going to be a big moment because the tories i have been speaking to take the view that two weeks out it is looking pretty good, the polls are in the right direction, privately they think they are on course for a majority so they

are on course for a majority so they are not going to take any risks today. i think it will be a slightly underwhelming manifesto. 0f today. i think it will be a slightly underwhelming manifesto. of course there will be a lot about brexit, thatis there will be a lot about brexit, that is the core message that we can expect boris johnson that is the core message that we can expect borisjohnson to go over and over and over but a lot of the nitty—gritty thing is we might normally have expected, i doubt we will get. social care, i doubt we are going to get anything like a proposalfor a detailed are going to get anything like a proposal for a detailed long—term policy, instead we will get a general aspiration to have talks with other parties in the hope down the line of finding some sort of consensus. known real nitty—gritty there. likewise, on immigration, although boris johnson has there. likewise, on immigration, although borisjohnson has talked a lot about moving to an australian points style system, we won't get the nuts and bolts because he is waiting for what is called the migration advisory committee to come up migration advisory committee to come up with clear recommendations, that is not due untiljanuary. we probably won't get details on that either. interesting whether mr

johnson also backtracks on his pledge to raise tax threshold for higher earners because, you will remember during the leadership campaign, one of his pictures was about helping middle income earners who he said had been ignored. he suggested raising the higher rate threshold to £80,000 which would be a significant tax cut. we have had quite a lot of radio silence on that in the selection. nobody has been talking about it. i wonder it is the big drop, otherwise, it is not happening. we have seen boris johnson dropping the corporation tax promise. that too was abandoned. both those taxes look like they benefit the better off, they benefit business and the clear direction of travel for team johnson is to try and say that all the spare cash they have got will go to less well—off earners, if you like. that is where

we had the announcement the other day on national insurance and raising the threshold of that to £9,500. ifi raising the threshold of that to £9,500. if i canjust grab one of these. here is the document. i am not allowed to tell you what is in it. that is it. " get exit done. post quote as we expected. that will be the core message. —— get brexit done. i think it will be a rather thinner document. i will have a quick peek. 50 pages. ithinkjeremy corbyn's was 90 pages. they don't wa nt to ta ke corbyn's was 90 pages. they don't want to take risks or chances and so many tories were burnt by theresa may's catastrophic launch last time when it all ended in tears and disaster and then she was left saying nothing has changed full stop as we know, everything had changed. so caution is one of the approaches but they will want to get some

positive messages out there to make people feel reassured and this issue around the triple lock and the reassurance on taxation is going to be key. yes. the key word there is the r word, the reassurance word, it isa the r word, the reassurance word, it is a defensive manifesto saying to pensioners, for example, don't worry, nothing to fear, we are going to keep your triple lock to guarantee that your pensions rise by earnings or insulation. panic not, you are going to still get a good deal. that is one group reassured. then to taxpayers saying vat, national insurance, income tax, that will not go up. similarly to brexiteers. saying to them panic not to because i will bring back the brexit bill before christmas and i intend to have the withdrawal agreement signed, sealed and

delivered before january. a pledge also that they will be no further extension. he is not going to seek further delay as we try to negotiate a trade agreement. team johnson ferry bullish that they can pull off this trade agreement by december next year. a lot of people, the tories hoof out of the party, saying no, no, no, this is going to take time and the danger is no deal emerges in the future. i think it is a message of reassurance. you emerges in the future. i think it is a message of reassurance. you get the sense that the game plan of team johnson isjust to the sense that the game plan of team johnson is just to consolidate what they have got, rather than to take risks and go out there with tax cuts and policy proposals to bring in new tranches of voters. they want to settle down their bedrock support. they take the view that will be enough to get them across the line. as you say, norman, brexit the keyword. if we show people at home the hall as we wait to hear from the

prime minister. let's see if we can bring up that shot. get brexit done will be looming over the prime minister's right—hand shoulder. that is the core message. we were hearing from michael gove on the andrew marr show this morning. the key thing about that will be that it will unlock investment and that will generate the money but these plans they have about a steadying taxation and so on. of course, the economist will be going through this, as they have with all the manifestos, with a fine tooth comb. they will. although the spending promises from team johnson are know when you're on the same humongous scale that we had from jeremy corbyn, they still are a sizeable spending promises. we have sajid javid promising to increase borrowing to 3% gdp, that is another £100 billion worth of borrowing. we know we have got big spending commitments on all sorts of things

like more police officers, more prisons, and uplift in school places, that £20 billion increase in nhs spending. sizeable spending promises. ifind it interesting nhs spending. sizeable spending promises. i find it interesting that it is so different to all the recent general elections. if you look at the last one or the 2015 election, it was all about how can we save money, how can we bear down on the deficit, how can we balance the books. it was caution, caution, caution. now you would struggle to find anyone talking about saving any sort of money. they have gone into a spending arms race between each other where the argument is not over their plans over reforming the nhs education, the argument is over who is spending the most on what different public service. that is a com plete different public service. that is a complete change in the political

culture. austerity fatigue hasjust sunk its claws into the electorate and any politician who appears on the doorstep talking about saving more money orfurther the doorstep talking about saving more money or further benefit cuts are clamping down on wages isjust not going to get a hearing. the public will not tolerate any further continuation and austerity. that seems to have been accepted across the board. in a way, maybe that has disadvantagejeremy the board. in a way, maybe that has disadvantage jeremy corbyn in the board. in a way, maybe that has disadvantagejeremy corbyn in a sense because his big pitch has a lwa ys sense because his big pitch has always been he is the man to end austerity. now all the parties seem to be saying a similar sort of thing, albeit they are not promising to end it in quite the same sort of dramatic fashion thatjeremy corbyn is with the sort of reversal of all the benefit cuts, significant increase in the living wage and a whole load of other chunky spending commitments. for people just joining

us, i will remind people we are waiting to hear from us, i will remind people we are waiting to hearfrom horacejohnson who will be coming to the podium around 2pm. we made here before that james cleverly. while we wait for that, we are getting the lowdown from norman smith who has in his hand a copy of the manifesto. i know you cannot delve into it yet because it is under embargo but show us again the front and back and give us again the front and back and give us a sense. it will be full of information. when we look at ma nifestos, information. when we look at manifestos, all this detail, how much of it really goes into the electorate's mind, do you think? how much they pour over the details of ma nifestos ? much they pour over the details of manifestos? not much at all. i take the view that most elections are decided by big themes, big impressions of leaders and to a lesser degree big gaffes. there are

going to be big premises in this, mr johnson? any new announcements? well, that is a first. borisjohnson not much to say! that really is a surprise. i am told there will be a couple of new announcements but i don't think there is going to be a major commitment that is going to surprise us. i think we have got most of the headline announcements about 20,000 more police officers, that uplift in health spending, those kind of big, chunky policy announcements they got out early doors in the election campaign. the smaller, if i can put it this way, niche announcements, things like ending car parking charges for nurses on overnight shifts or filling in potholes, there is plenty of that in this manifesto vomit will

it change the election? i wouldn't think so. i think people form a view partly of the leaders, do they think this person is fit to be prime minister, and partly the big picture. in this election, it has been fairly stark. we have had boris johnson, straight down the line, his co re johnson, straight down the line, his core message from day one get brexit done. 0n the other hand, we have had jeremy corbyn straight down the line, real change, in otherwords this is a moment in our history where we can change the way britain is run to benefit those who traditionally have had to endure may be austerity and have not enjoyed all the benefits of a growing economy. two very different approaches. boris johnson now, people clapping as he arrives in the hall. we are in telford. the cabinet now filing in. there are a few mps here, not packed, i have to say. it

isa here, not packed, i have to say. it is a funny sort of day, it is a sunday afternoon, not a usual day for launching a manifesto. that kind of goes with the theme that they don't really want to make a big thing about this. they are happy for it to be a lower key manifesto launch, in part to keep the focus on their big brexit message. they do not want their big brexit message. they do not wa nt lots their big brexit message. they do not want lots of distractions about shiny new policies in the manifesto. asi shiny new policies in the manifesto. as i say, the last manifesto was so catastrophic, they do not want a repeat of that. i thinkjames cleverly is now just repeat of that. i thinkjames cleverly is nowjust being introduced and he is getting to his feet now. he will give a little warm up feet now. he will give a little warm up speech before we hear from feet now. he will give a little warm up speech before we hearfrom boris johnson. al manifesto is a promise, a promise to listen to you. to implement the decision you took in 2016 and make sure that parliament

gets to work on your priorities. 0n the nhs, and education, on ensuring families across the country feel safe on the streets, secure in their jobs, confident about the future. the stakes at this election are high, but the choice is clear. we will get brexit done. applause we will clear the logjam and end the political paralysis of the last 3.5 yea rs political paralysis of the last 3.5 years and start the process of bringing our country back together.

but what would corbyn do? indeed. he would prolong the arguments about brexit, more political navel—gazing, parliamentary games rather than delivering on the priorities of people. labour talk about offering real change, but the kind of change they are offering is not the change we need. change from a growing economy to a broken one. no thank