you're watching bbc newsroom live. it's ham and these are the main stories this morning... the conservatives and labour are accused of not presenting credible spending plans by a leading economic research group. both risk ending up borrowing a lot more than they are saying, either the economy is doing much work, or as in labour plasma case, they do not get enough tax in. or for the conservative case they end up spending more than they are saying. i'm martine croxall in cheltenham where the lib dems have their sights set on overturning the tory majority here. tensions escalate between china and the us — after president trump signs a bill

supporting hong kong's pro—democracy protesters. vue cinemas looks to resume screenings of blue story, days after it banned the film for allegedly sparking violence at some of its venues. campaigners want the price of a ‘bag for life' to rise to 70 pence to cut the amount of plastic we use. and a special report from the black sea — where major efforts are being made to stop it from being the dumping ground for agricultural and industrial waste. good morning. welcome to bbc newsroom live. neither the conservatives nor labour are offering "credible" spending plans ahead of the election — that's according to the institute for fiscal studies.

the leading economic research group said that neither the convervatives or labour were being "honest" with voters. the institute's director said the conservatives were continuing to "pretend that tax rises will never be needed to secure decent public services". labour, he added, "pretends that huge increases in spending can be financed byjust big companies and the rich". ma nifestos manifestos are manifestos and governments do not tend to follow them with any precision. we know the conservatives over the last two electoral cycles have spent and borrowed a lot more than they said they would. i think that will happen again because they are suggesting no additional spending this time around, beyond what is already announced. labour has got an enormous manifesto, vast spending and tax increases, which probably cannot be delivered within a single parliament but would provide a blueprint for change over a two or

three period of parliament. our economics editor faisal islam is here: this is when the promises meet the forensic minds of economists. some difficult questions. yes, a plague on all your houses, in fiscal terms, from very different reasons. the main criticism of labour, as you have just heard, some of the spending on investment, that is on buildings, hospitals, roads and railways, it's so big they will not be able to deliver it. what message are you sending to the public? it is highly likely that with the levels of tax, that will impact upon it, directly or indirectly, more than just the top 5% of earners, for example through the marriage tax allowa nce example through the marriage tax allowance being abolished and things like dividends and capital games, whilst accruing to better people,

they will be outside of the top 5%. for the conservatives, though, no respite either. in particular on this issue of the dye in the ditch style commitment to leaving the negotiations after a week brexit for a free trade agreement. it is in the ma nifesto, a free trade agreement. it is in the manifesto, the idea that we might end up on world trade organisation times, and therefore tariffs, taxes on trade, by the end of next year. that is seen by these economists as being highly damaging to the economy. so potentially damaging, this is what is interesting. we know about labour‘s borrowing, they have pitched that at about 3.5% of the size of the economy. but they say conservatives are on course for half of that, as you might expect from the plans. if we left without a deal in terms of future trading

arrangements next year, conservative deficit would be 4%. for the same order, potentially even higher. the conservatives have nothing to say about that. that is an extraordinary finding and illustrates there are other things going on in the ma nifestos other things going on in the manifestos and the big pledges on tax spendings. you have got to wonder whether voters factor in when you listen to the parties talk about spending plans are tax promises, whether the voters factor in those pledges are promises are quite ambitious, shall we call it? really, the ifs is pointing out here a very different choice, a stark choice, between the two parties. yes, certainly by uk standards, labour's plans for spending and taxation haven't really been seen before. labour's happy is to go with that. that is the offer they think the public wants. the conservatives spending and taxation plans are only a little bit bigger, but also

implies, because of the austerity we have seen, it has been baked into plans. on areas outside of the nhs, 1496 plans. on areas outside of the nhs, 14% already cuts in spending have been baked in, lower than when we we re been baked in, lower than when we were in 2010, but already baked in. i think that is quite interesting, that difference, that's direct choice. we do also point out the start of state we are talking about, united kingdom, the bigger by historical standards, would put us in between the netherlands and germany in terms of european standards. yes, historically a bigger state in terms of spending, but the average of where europe is generally. a significant difference between the two main parties. 0k, thank you very much. for more on this, and what it could mean for tactical voters, norman smith joins us live now from westminster. what are your thoughts on what the afs is saying? is this going to become in the remaining couple of

weeks of this campaign in one of the dominant issues that keeps cropping up dominant issues that keeps cropping up again? well, i think undoubtably it will be able to both the main parties because they both crave the approval, if you like, for the ifs. they want to be given the thumbs up, to be told their tax and spending psalms all add up. there are no nasty surprises in them. —— spending plans. the ifa set the opposite. the icing it is unwise for borisjohnson to be ruling out tax increases, because he may well have to put up tax. on the labour side saying labour's pledged to ensure turning the top 5% to have to pay any more, thatis the top 5% to have to pay any more, that is not credible either if you wa nt to that is not credible either if you want to increase spending at the scale that labour does, quite a lot more people are going to have to pay more people are going to have to pay more in tax. spending, likewise, saying they reckoned borisjohnson will spend a lot more than he is

claiming. on the labour side, will spend a lot more than he is claiming. on the labourside, they just will not be, if you like, the resources to increase spending in the way that labour wants to do, to have shovel ready scheme is good to 90, have shovel ready scheme is good to go, because they want such a massive splurge in spending. i am struck by the way the afs has gone out the way to scold the two main parties over a number of very sensitive policy areas. on social care saying bluntly the tories are offering nothing beyond the uncosted aspiration one day in the future, perhaps, possibly, maybe, if ever, to ensure people do not have to sell their homes. and seeing labour's proposal isa homes. and seeing labour's proposal is a free personal care would not safeguard people from catastrophic cost because they would still have to pay for their accommodation, and therefore probably would have to sell their homes. passion met pensioners, too, very good critical

of the parties. —— and pensioners, too. both parties are going to protect the triple lock on pension. and on the labour side bunging billions of pounds towards the women and saying the state pension age should not rise beyond 66. the afs has taken the view the pensioners are done pretty well and they are going to continue doing very well. they are pretty critical of both the main parties, notjust in the generality but in the specifics of some of their policy areas. thank you very much, norman. the bbc understands that labour has agreed a new electoral campaign strategy in an effort to gain ground in the two weeks that

remain before polling day. a major part of the plan is said to be a renewed effort to retain labour voters who support brexit. members of the shadow cabinet who back leave are likely to be given a higher profile than those who support remain, whilejeremy corbyn will be spending more time touring leave seats. today he's in southampton. our political correspondent jonathan blake is in southampton. first of all, with a nod to what we have been talking about. do you think that is something jeremy corbyn might address today in southampton? i think he will certainly face questions on that verdict of labour's manifesto and the programme for government, as he had been hearing the verdict as it is not credible, alongside the tory‘s plans as well, for specific reasons about the scale and ambition of labour's public—sector investment programme and its claim to only taxing only the 5% of the most well

off in society. jeremy corbyn will face questions about that today and the detail of exactly how his radical manifesto for government, as he has described it, will work. the focus jeremy corbyn want to keep todayis focus jeremy corbyn want to keep today is on the environment. you will be talking about labour's plans to plant 2 billion trees by 20110, create ten new national nature parks and he will describe the selection is the last chance to tackle the climate emergency. but we are going to see something of a shift from jeremy corbyn and labour in their campaign from now on towards polling day, just over two weeks away, because as you are suggesting there, there is an acceptance among some in there is an acceptance among some in the party that the campaign has not gone quite according to plan and been quite as effective as they would have hoped from the start. i think if you think that in the blizzard of big promises and big numbers that were in the labour ma nifesto, numbers that were in the labour manifesto, the detail has somehow been lost. with regard to brexit, we will see more of a focus now on the pa rty‘s plans to

will see more of a focus now on the party's plans to negotiate a new deal and putting forward the benefits of that versus boris johnson's deal, particularly in the voting areas, where you will see members of the shadow cabinet and labourfigures members of the shadow cabinet and labour figures who are in favour of leaving the eu with a deal popping up leaving the eu with a deal popping up and putting forward labour's policy on brexit a little bit better. that is relevant here in southampton, the majority of people voted to leave the european union in the 2016 referendum and exactly the kind of area thatjeremy corbyn ali labour party will have to win seats if they want to win a majority. do you think this change of strategy was something that labour saw coming, given the position that they have taken on brexit with the promise of if they when, another vote, or is it a change of strategy that they have had to do on the fourth hoof, as it were? well, go back to the manifesto launch and it was striking thatjeremy corbyn said

very little about the brexit policy. he mentioned it and talked about it with conviction, negotiating that new deal and putting that to the people and a further referendum. it really hasn't so far been a big focus of labour's campaign. i think the shift in emphasis is a realisation that that was not necessarily the most effective strategy. many voters, brexit is of course the key issue, if not the key issue in the election campaign and it's such a divisive issue and one which many people will be making up their minds of how to vote. by putting it out there and being transparent, it doesn't labour no harm. ub are talking about their domestic policies and the plan for brexit. -- here we are. thank you very much. and following nigel farage and the brexit party today, is franky mccamley who joins us live now from hull.

it was interesting dominic cummings today said that despite that poll showing the conservatives winning a majority, he was warning conservatives not to be complacent and presumably in those seats where the brexit party is fighting, they are not holding back on trying to win those votes, are they? absolutely not, nor, especially here in hull where they have for brexit party members trying to steal seats here. a labour hold. we are in a golf centre in hull north at the moment. there is a buyer very close by. nigel farage is very well known for going to get a pint with constituency members. brexit is their main message here. this is how they are trying to win the votes. here 67% of people voted brexit. they are really trying to get those labour leave voters. they have also

got really strong criticisms of the whole voting system itself. they say they want to scrap this in their contract with the people. they are not calling it a manifesto. they do not calling it a manifesto. they do not like that word. they are calling for this whole new voting system abolishing the house of lords and really it is all about tactics with the brexit party, they want those labour leave votes. nigel farage has said he is standing down every brexit member in tory held seats because of his fear of splitting the brexit lee fort. here in the north—east, there is this real strong leave desire to leave the eu. he is going to be going to wales, the east midlands and london. in this contract with the people, he can tell he is trying to get the labour votes. there are some similarities with the labour ma nifesto similarities with the labour manifesto when it comes to cutting corporation tax, cutting the cost of living, support for entrepreneurs and when it comes to the nhs, he says the nhs is not up for sale and

it will remain publicly owned. what this really comes down to is the brexit party going to be able to cut through and get those votes and what will that mean for the other party to make parties? thank you very much. the headlines on bbc news... the conservatives and labour are accused of not presenting credible spending plans by a leading economic research group. tensions have escalated between china and the us after president trump signed a bill supporting hong kong's pro—democracy protesters. and, vue cinemas says it will resume screenings of blue story...just days after it banned the film for allegedly sparking violence at some of its venues.

and in sport...liverpool and cheslea both slipped up in the champions league with draws and have to wait until their final gropup games to qulaify for the knockout stages chelsea conceded a late equaliser away at valencia. they will have to beat lille in their last game to be sure of going through. five british sides play in the europa league today. the pressure is on the arsenal manager unai emery after a run of six games without a win, they need a draw against frankfurt to qualify for the knockout stage. ollie pope is on standby to keep wicket for england in their second test against new zealand this evening. jos buttler could miss out out with a back injury. england are one down in the two match series i have a update in the next 15 minutes. see you then. thank you. see you very soon. throughout this election campaign we've been reporting from some key battleground constituencies — let's go to my colleague martine croxall who is in one for us today — in one for us today — martine. you might be able to guess from this incredible building that we are in. throughout the campaign, we are looking closely at places where the election could be won and lost. we

are visiting ten places throughout the uk. today we are in cheltenham in gloucestershire. the seat has been held by the conservatives since 2015 and is bordered by two other constituencies, also belonging to the tories. the conservatives took cheltenham four years ago with a swing of 10% from the liberal democrats who held the seat for 23 yea rs. democrats who held the seat for 23 years. the liberal democrats will be hoping to regain the seat this year. the conservatives have a majority with just over 2500. the conservatives have a majority withjust over 2500. our correspondence has been looking at the key issues facing voters here. housing could be a defining factor. cheltenham: an elegant regency spa town famed for its crescents and colonnades. but take a short drive from the centre and you'll soon find the same housing issues

as anywhere else. the cornerstone centre, here in the suburb of whaddon, many parents talk of high rents, cold homes and long waiting lists. bailiffs were gonna to come to my door and... kelly tells me she and her kids were kicked out of three places by private landlords before they finally got a council flat. so how stressful is that for you as a...? yeah, really stressful, because we didn't know whether or not we was going to get a council property. do you imagine yourself ever being able to buy somewhere of your own? not at the moment, no, no. it's just too expensive. maybe if i won the lottery! rent caps, tenant's rights, overcrowding, affordability, all big election themes here. are they going to be providing enough schools for the children? laura says it's notjust about promising new homes, but building whole communities. so i will be looking at it for who i vote for, i want it to be kind of part

of their bigger plan. i mean, for me, brexit is not the biggest issue, for me. i know it's the biggest issue for the parties, but it's not for me, personally. all the parties are making big headline—grabbing promises on housing at this election, and it's an issue that really matters to voters here in cheltenham, where the conservatives won last time with a majority of 2,500. among the many policies on offer, the lib dems, who hope to win this seat, have pledged millions to insulate homes. the conservatives have promised to build 1 million new properties in the next five years. and labour plan a major expansion of council housing. what we do is when we fit the windows... josh is a builder, but needs a deposit of £22,000 to buy a home of his own. how am i ever going to get anywhere?

with i'm what i'm paying now, and trying to save £22,500, it takes — it's impossible. is there any chance you could save that much? i mean, how long do you think it would take? years, years? ten years? so there'd be 4,000 homes... if all these new properties are going to be built across the country, where will they go and what will be the impact? i know it will be very different in the future. on the outskirts of cheltenham, helen's been campaigning for years to protect this cotswold land from development. we have to think of the wider picture, the balance of the existing environment today, and what we need long—term. it's not just profitability for the developer. this election could bring big changes for housing, our planning laws, how we use greenbelt and brownfield sites. how we vote could affect notjust how we live, but where. jon kay, bbc news, cheltenham. this is a spa town. we are in the

pump rooms, a fine regency building in cheltenham. it is here the medicinal waters were dispensed to visitors. in fact, medicinal waters were dispensed to visitors. infact, i have medicinal waters were dispensed to visitors. in fact, i have a tiny cup of it right here. and i can even sample it today. here it is. i do not know what it is going to be like. itjust not know what it is going to be like. it just taste not know what it is going to be like. itjust taste like water, which is a relief. we are not here just for this, we are here talk politics. i'm joined by hayley mortimer who's a reporter for bbc radio gloucester. we were hearing the report they are about the housing issues that people face here. the accident and emergency department is also very high up in priorities. tell us what has been happening. that's right. of course the nhs is a big issue nationally, but this issue involves the a&e department. gloucestershire asa the a&e department. gloucestershire as a county has two departments. people are concerned the one in cheltenham could close, that is because there has been a downgrading of services over the last few years.

if it did close, people have to travel 20 minutes to gloucester to access travel 20 minutes to gloucester to a ccess services travel 20 minutes to gloucester to access services instead. the nhs as isaid access services instead. the nhs as i said this is not going to close. it has been an issue on the doorstep and a big campaigning issue for all the parties. has it had any reprieves? it has. changing the a&e department was going to be a feature in this consultation. just a few weeks before the election was announced, the nhs has delayed this consultation. there is a main route through that is called bit past my corner. that is causing headaches for people at the moment. this is the main road through the centre of cheltenham. it splits the pedestrianised high street. now, the liberal democrat run council wants to change this. there is a trial closure of this road to traffic so

people can walk freely up and down the high street. it is meant to improve air quality and improve things for shoppers, but the conservatives have jumped on this as an electioneering issue saying that businesses say there has been a loss of footfall because people are struggling to get into town and also it is putting shoppers off visiting. if real local issue at play. and of course cheltenham is home to gchq, the government's intelligence and security organisation, and there is a hope that more can be made of that, to turn the town into a cyber harbour. the good news story for cheltenham, it would put cheltenham on the map nationally and internationally. the aim is to create a cyber hub near to gchq, a business park that would support the work of gchq and thousands of houses there as well. with the good news

for businesses, jobs, housing, the economy. bad news if you live nearby, because it does involve building on green belt land. all in all, good story. both parties, liberal democrats and the conservatives are trying to take credit for that. thank you for setting the scene for us. it is great to have here. we will be here all day. and at 11:30am, we will be hearing from a reporter from gloucestershire life. you can find out what each party is promising to do on the policy guide that lets you compare between each party and their policies. we can go online to check it out... or it is on the bbc news app. we will see later from cheltenham. martin, thank you very much. see you soon. president donald trump has approved a new law backing

protesters in hong kong despite angry objections from beijing. the legislation requires the state department to certify that hong kong retains enough autonomy to justify favourable us trading terms. china has warned it will take firm counter—measures. protestors in hong kong have been barricaded in a university for weeks after violent clashes with police — but officers have this morning entered the campus. our correspondent nick beake sent us this from inside the university. well, all morning the police have been on campus trying to gather evidence. and you can see these are more petrol bombs that they have been collecting and taking away and they are bagging all this up. they are making it safe. but also crucially, it could be evidence, because police have been saying this is still a crime scene, really. this has been the place where we have seen some of the most dramatic and violent episodes since the crisis began in hong kong five or six months ago. today, as well as these officers, there are social workers, psychologists and the police say their priority is not arresting people

today, but trying to make their way throughout the various buildings here. class rooms, lecture theatres, store rooms, and trying to see if there are any remaining protesters that may have been hiding in this place. now, at the same time that the authorities here take away petrol bombs, president trump in the united states has thrown his own molotov cocktail into the crisis here hong kong, certainly in the eyes of china, because they are furious with the legislation that has been passed over night in america. and basically, this means that now at least every year, the americans will look at what is happening here in the city in hong kong and they will try and work out whether beijing is eroding fundamental liberties, civil liberties. if the decision is taken that, yes, that is the case, possibly there could be sanctions in the future. the chinese have said this is completely unacceptable. they have called this an abominable act. at the same time, the democracy campaigners have really welcomed this. they say this is the best possible thanksgiving present.

of course, at the weekend it was their candidates who were so successful. they stormed to a landslide victory in a local election. if you talk to them today, they feel that not only to most of the people in hong kong support them, but also large parts of the international community are behind them in their fight against beijing and of course the united states is one of the biggest players on the international scene. one of the uk's biggest cinema chains plans to restart screenings of blue story this weekend after banning it from all of its uk sites. vue stopped showing the film, about london gangs, after a number incidents at its cinemas — including a mass fight in birmingham. tolu adeoye reports. it was this brawl involving up to 100 teenagers in birmingham that led to vue banning blue story, a film about two friends caught up in postcode gang rivalry in london.

it started in the actual screening itself of blue story, and it spilt out into the foyer. and then it got really ' kly. but the decision to withdraw the film from all its uk screens upset many, including blue story‘s director. it was, like, breaking my heart. because i'm getting calls every day, we're doing this well, we're doing that well, doing so well, it's getting so well received. and then, to get pulled from every cinema... vue's boss said the decision was only ever about safety, and the film will soon return to its screens, with additional security arrangements. speaking to the community, speaking to the producers and directors, we are now comfortable that we can guarantee the safety of our staff and customers to put it back on our screens. both sides will hope the focus can now return to the film itself. and it is time now for a look at the weather forecast. let's get the

details from simon. hello. we have got rain across northern parts of england and north wales at the moment. it is moving south and clearing. brighterskies moment. it is moving south and clearing. brighter skies developing. that brighter weather will come with colder air, as it moves in behind this weather front. it will push into wales, the midlands, eastern england. further south and west, largely dry. some sunny spells towards northern parts. quite a contrast in temperatures. in the north, we will see the temperature is coming down to five to seven celsius. a nice chill in the air. through this evening and tonight. that will continue to move south. the risk of some ice. temperatures for many of us are lower than recent night. frost in scotland. many of us commerce tomorrow will feel brighter and a sunnier day than recent days.

a chilly day. temperatures of four to eight hello this is bbc newsroom live. the headlines... the conservatives and labour are accused of not presenting credible spending plans by a leading economic research group. tensions escalate between china and the us — after president trump signs a bill supporting hong kong's pro—democracy protesters. vue cinemas looks to resume screenings of blue story days after it banned the film for allegedly sparking violence at some of its venues. campaigners want the price of a ‘bag for life' to rise to 70 pence to cut the amount of plastic we use. sport now and for a full round up, from the bbc sport centre.

good morning. liverpool and chelsea slipped up last night in the champions league. both could have qualified for the knockout stage with a game to spare but they will now have to wait until the final round of group matches. liverpool's only defeat this season was away to napoli in their opening group game and the italians took the lead at anfield through dries mertens. it finished 1—1, with a second half equaliser from dejan lovren but they still need a draw at salzberg in their final game to ensure they reach the last 16. a lot of people around liverpool probably think that now we have to play again and put everything in what we have but it was never different. i can't remember one game since i've been here where we could go in with 50%. that is our situation. it is ok. it is not brilliant but it is ok. there's no excuse to the situation. chelsea were just a couple of minutes away from qualifying

for the knockout stage, christian pulisic had given them the lead away at valencia. but it finished 2—2, daniel wass with the goal inside the last 10 minutes although it might have been an attempted cross. chelsea have to beat lille at home to be sure of qualification. iam happy i am happy to a degree. you come here to win a match, obviously, but we respect the opponent and the champions league and how tough it is and we respect the state of mind. we saw it was a really tough match but it does keep it in our hands and now it does keep it in our hands and now it is then asked in the last game at home to lille. there were positives and negatives out of the game but thatis and negatives out of the game but that is a positive. there are five british sides playing in the europa league today. celtic, rangers and manchester united and wolves are all in action arsenal need a draw at home against. eintracht frankfurt to qualify from their group. the manager unai emery says it the "perfect chance to reconnect with supporters" after a run of six

games without a win. the club is supporting me. ifeel that everyone responsible in that area in the club is backing me. i really appreciate it a lot. ifeel strong with that support. i know my responsibility to come back and change that situation. we need a good connection with our supporters and above all i need mainly to be strong in my consistency. uk athletics has commissioned an independent review to look into its own relationship with coach alberto salazar and the now—disbanded nike oregon project. a panel appointed by uk athletics in 2015 said there was "no reason" to remove british athletes from salazar's programme, despite allegations that american

had broken anti—doping rules. salazar was subsequently banned forfour years in october and nike have shut down his group. salazar is appealing against his ban. the second test against new zealand starts tonight, and england wicket keeper jos buttler could miss out with a back problem. ollie pope could keep wicket in his absence, he last took the gloves in february playing for the england lions. kent batsman zak crawley could make his debut should buttler have to sit out the match. england lost the first test against the kiwis and a lot of the build up to this match has focussed on the captain's poor form and england's failure with the bat. in terms of when we say but long it doesn't mean that we have to block it for three days and hope that means we will get to a big score. it means we will get to a big score. it means reading the situation and making good decisions for long periods of time which allow you to

that long. the way i will do that will be different to don sibley and rory burns. everyone has their own way of doing it. there's live commentary on the first day of the second test in hamilton on radio 5 live sports extra. play starts at 10pm, and there's full text commentary on the bbc sport website. england, remember, are one down in the two match series. that's all the sport for now. i'll have more for you in the next hour. thank you. we will see you in the next hour. the pollsters called the brexit referendum wrong and the 2015 and 2017 elections each led to inquiries. while some may argue polling is broken, the 2017 election had one notable success, a constituency level model that correctly called the hung parliament ten days before polling. today the times has the 2019 version, which suggests if the election was held now the conservatives would win a comfortable house of commons majority. let's get more from the pollster and political scientist

professor sirjohn curtice who's in glasgow for us. very good to see you today. what are your thoughts on this latest polling? obviously it is trying to live up to its previous call for a hung parliament. you are right. because when yougov used this technique in 2017 they anticipated a hung parliament against the trend of much if not all the other polling. it has to be said this time what yougov have come up with his very much in line with what we would have expected from the polling we have been seeing over the course of the last three or four weeks. the poll is saying the outcome in terms of votes that the conservatives have an 11 point lead over labour which is what yougov themselves have been saying over the last three or four poles and is very close to the

average of the polling industry as a whole. the forecast at 359 is not far different to what you would have said the outcome is likely to be if you had simply taken the fact that the conservatives are more or less at the same point at what they are two years ago. labour are nine point down. you would reckon that the conservatives would end up with about 355 seats. crucially, although this poll does confirm what we suspected is true, is that the conservative vote is going up more in places that voted strongly to leave then it is in places that voted strongly to remain. the net effect of that could be almost close to zero. why do you say the net effect? let me just also say that we are showing our viewers details of that poll carried out as you can see on the screen there. carried out on

a 26. what i mean by the net effect is that the seats that the conservatives are picking up in a very strong leave areas where the swing to the conservatives is higher. that has been more or less counterbalanced by the fact that there are other seats that voted to remain where the conservative position is rather weaker than it was then a few weeks ago. that is one of the key findings of the poll but the net effect is that the conservatives will gain some scenes they might as that make some seats that they might not have got is in fa ct that they might not have got is in fact counterbalance because there are some pro remain seats that they might not get. the movements from two years ago won't be the same everywhere but in terms as the overall picture in the house of commons and the number of seats at the conservatives will get seemingly won't make much difference. if there isa won't make much difference. if there is a surprise in this poll it is

suggesting that the liberal democrats are indeed not going to come out with much from the selection suggesting only 13 seats, one more than they got in 2017. i think that will come as a substantial disappointment to them. the other crucial message to this poll is something that has been clear from the polling poll is something that has been clearfrom the polling more poll is something that has been clear from the polling more widely, yes, atan11 clear from the polling more widely, yes, at an 11 point lead the conservatives think they should win the election fairly comfortable but if the next two weeks that conservative lead in the poll. to say seven points then suddenly it looks much closer and there is at least the possibility of a hung parliament is coming back into view. and the poll does suggest some caveats, doesn't it? it talks about a significant number of seats perhaps 30 or more where the margin of error make sense perhaps too close to call, to use that cliche. indeed. therefore the conservative lead over labour narrows a bit worse

at the moment yougov is saying that quite a few of their seats will go to the conservatives. if the national position narrows then they are seats that could well end up in labour hands. that reminds us that the battle for this election although it looks comfortable for the conservatives and has done for the conservatives and has done for the last four weeks, it is not necessarily in the bag. leaving aside this poll and most of the poles we have seen in the last few weeks have pointed to a slight narrowing in the lead so a clear warning to the conservatives that it is not in the bag. if that apparent trends that the polls have seemingly picked up in the last week were to continue then the message of this poll is that then the outcome could look rather different. 0k. professor sirjohn curtis, thank you very much.

environmental campaigners are calling for charges on supermarket "bags for life" to be raised to 70 pence. it comes as research shows use of the plastic bags has risen again this year to one—and a—half—billion — that's a total of 5a for every household in the uk per year. andy moore reports. it has been hailed as a huge success, the law requiring supermarkets to charge for every single—use plastic bag. but are we just swapping one bad habit for another? so the supermarkets want us to switch from these disposable bags, price 5p here, to these so—called bags for life, priced 10p here. but the environmental groups say the price difference is just too small. they would like to see the charge for bags for life raised to at least 70p. sainsbury‘s recently doubled their charge for more durable bags from 10p to 20p, and got quite a lot of stick from some of their customers for that. a bag for life is a good thing if it's being used for life, as the name suggests. but our figures show that these are just being used for a week, if that, by a lot of customers. the low price means that there's not

the incentive for people to reuse. and there's also issues with biodegradable plastics. they don't always break down in the natural environment, so they can cause just as much harm as a conventional plastic. environmental groups say bags for life are usually bigger and contain more plastic. it is part of the reason why overall plastic use in supermarkets is actually growing. but the supermarkets say they are aware of the problem, and are doing their best to tackle it. lidl, for example, is stopping selling bags for life in its welsh stores, and will do so in the rest of the uk if the experiment works. andy moore, bbc news. tackling waste — and in particular plastics — in our seas is now a priority for governments around the world. for decades the black sea was treated as a dumping ground for agricultural and industrial

waste — with things so bad that scientists considered parts of it almost entirely dead. so how are things now? in the first of a two part special report our correspondent jonah fisher and video journalist abdujalil abdurasulov travelled across the region looking for answers. this is the dnieper in eastern ukraine. for decades, large rivers have washed away eastern europe's waste into the black sea. we are being shown what is known as blooming. it happens when excess nutrients, often from fertilisers, cause a rapid growth in algae, starving the water of oxygen. decades of regular blooming has killed off life in large parts of the black sea. creating underwater deserts where onlyjellyfish thrive. on the black sea's eastern coast in georgia, we see and smell another of its big problems.

so this is the main rubbish dump here in batumi, but the big issue for here is that it is only about 300, 400 metres from this rubbish dump to the black sea itself, and there is a waterway which basically leads all the way down there. taking rubbish with it. this is just one of numerous examples around the black sea of how easily poorly managed waste can get into the water. we have already kind of disturbing evidence that the marine litter, number of floating items per square kilometre is almost doubled compared to the mediterranean sea. it is the worst situation for all the european seas. even more alarming is the evidence of how deep the contamination goes.

we are on board a research vessel hundreds of kilometres from shore, and this probe is being sent two kilometres down to take samples from the seabed. analysis of the mud has revealed the presence of tiny fragments of plastic, known as micro plastics. the scientists also have worrying news about what they are discovering in the water. the biggest threat is coming from pharmaceuticals, especially antibiotics. because if there is antibiotics in the black sea that means bacteria will develop here that will resist the antibiotics and mean that ultimately that medicine does not work any more? yeah, this is now a real problem. people are dying from that. taken together, it is a sobering catalogue of environmental woe. testament to decades of neglect and abuse.

but in the next part of our black sea journey, we look at what is being done to turn things around, and discover that projects thousands of kilometres awayjust might make a difference. jeremy corbyn is speaking now at a climate change event in southampton. he has been speaking about yesterday's unredacted nhs documents as well as the party's plans to plant billions of trees by 2040. he is about to take questions now select listening. we are going to ta ke select listening. we are going to take some questions but we are short for time so we probably only have time for three rounds. you can watch all of this tonight on channel 4 debate as well. all of the party

leaders will be debating except one. laughter £10 if you guessed the right answer. which one will it be?! we have a lot of media and cameras here sol which one will it be?! we have a lot of media and cameras here so i want to make sure they get the chance to asked questions about the plan we put forward and some of the bold ideas thatjeremy put forward and some of the bold ideas that jeremy puts forward. i will start withjonathan ideas that jeremy puts forward. i will start with jonathan blake from the bbc. jonathan blake, bbc news. the environment is clearly a big issue in the selection and brexit is another one. can in the selection and brexit is anotherone. cani in the selection and brexit is another one. can i ask you what your messages today for a traditional labour supporters who are considering backing the conservatives over brexit? thank you jonathan. let's make sure we can hear the questions, everybody. jonathan. let's make sure we can hearthe questions, everybody. next question is from itv. mr corbyn, you

have a very ambitious programme of tree planting. you know that downing street has a pretty big garden, how many would you plan to plant personally if you do get into number ten? cani personally if you do get into number ten? can i also ask you that we are coming up to christmas, would you advise people to perhaps forego getting a christmas tree so fewer trees are cut down? and from sky. mr corbyn, we are hearing that you will be shifting your focus in the north because of a drift from your traditional voters to the tories. would you say that as an admission thatis would you say that as an admission that is your brexit campaign has failed to convince your traditional base? and also another question, if i may, the ifs has repeated that

your spending plans are not credible why should the public believe them? thank you for your questions. first of all, the environment is a massive issue, thank you for that. obviously brexit is an issue as well for millions of people all over this country. the two things are not mutually exclusive. i recognise that environmental problems can only be solved by determination of a national government to deal with it in their own country but also the work you do internationally. if you pour poison in the sea it doesn't stay within your own territorial waters, go somewhere else. if you pollute a river that goes into the sea and that helps to pollute the whole world ultimately. the plastic islands in the pacific cousins come from nowhere. it has come from a lot of countries all around the pacific

not regulating their way so we have to work very closely internationally which is why i will be very pleased to host a conference in britain next year when we will improve the paris climate change accord and make it even stronger in order to reach net zero. working with european countries is very important. our plans on brexit are absolutely clear. within three months of taking office we will negotiate a lease option with the european union which maintains trade with the european union and protects the good friday agreement. —— a leave option. it will also protect the rights that we have got through european membership, consumer rights, worker's protection. within six months we will put that to a referendum the british people in which i as prime minister would make sure it is fairly held with very strict rules on credibility of campaigning and funding of

campaigning and funding of campaigning and funding of campaigning and the decision would be made by the british people. people have got to come together on this. we cannot go on forever debating on what happened or didn't happen in 2016. we have to recognise that in 2016 nobody voted to lose theirjob and nobody voted to see theirjob and nobody voted to see their condition destroyed. applause and that is a message that i will ta ke and that is a message that i will take out all over the country and ourcampaign is in take out all over the country and our campaign is in every part of the country. as you know, i was in falmouth yesterday and i will be in yorkshire on the weekends and i'm travelling all around the country. do you know what? i say the same thing at every place i go. i don't have one message for one group and another message for another group. i say the same message everywhere. vote labour in order to get a government that will deal with the inequalities and poverty and

injustice that austerity has heaped on this country. vote labour in order to have a sensible, grown—up approach to the issue of relations with europe in the future and voted labour in order to have a government thatis labour in order to have a government that is serious in dealing with the biggest issue that is facing the whole planet which is the climate emergency and a government that on the world stage will act intelligently on that and have trade policies that reflect the environmental crisis we are all in at the current time and i will be very proud to lead thatjob. applause on the points you make about tree planting, iam on the points you make about tree planting, i am conscious that they are very planting, i am conscious that they are very ambitious plans and so we expect by 2025 to have managed to plant 300 trees by 2030 it will be 1 billion. by 2040 we will have

reached the figure that i talked about in my speech. that tree planting is a massive undertaking. the land is available and we have discussed this with those that administer national parks and discussed it with many people. the land is available but obviously there needs to be an expansion of tree nurseries and there are a great manyjobs tree nurseries and there are a great many jobs that will tree nurseries and there are a great manyjobs that will be developed as a result of that. we have the lowest level of tree cover of any european country and the lowest ever level in britain was after the first world warand britain was after the first world war and the forestry commission was founded and it hasn't gone up as much as it should have done in that time. we will be very, very ambitious on this and of course i will set an example by planting in the downing street garden. indeed, i've got a very nice tree in a part in my back garden which i was given by climate extinction people when they demonstrated outside parliament. i will look after and very carefully and very well and i can find very carefully and very well and i canfind a very carefully and very well and i can find a very nice place to plant

that. we're going to go from southampton now to central london. and jo swinson is speaking at an event in central london at the moment. she is speaking from a homeless shelter today. boris johnson lied to the queen to unlawfully shutdown our democracy. borisjohnson the queen to unlawfully shutdown our democracy. boris johnson is the queen to unlawfully shutdown our democracy. borisjohnson is not fit to be prime minister. notjust because he doesn't care and notjust because he doesn't care and notjust because he doesn't care and notjust because he lies but also because he is complicit in stoking division and fear into our communities. why else would britain's biggest racist tommy robinson be supporting him? honestly, such an endorsement would shame any decent person but boris johnson has no shame when it comes to the language she uses about race. last april a friend text me saying,

"my ten—year—old daughter has just told me she doesn't want to leave the house tomorrow because of punish a muslim day." i was heartbroken. no child in our country should fear for their safety when they step out of their safety when they step out of their home. just this week the muslim council of britain accused borisjohnson's party of muslim council of britain accused boris johnson's party of denial, dismissal and deceit over islamophobia. a busy busy day in the election campaign. that isjo swinson in london. much more coverage of the election coming up but right now let's go to the weather. we've got some changes in the weather over the next 24—hour is. a welcome change for many of us from the rain and the cloud that we have had recently. we are starting to see those changes already across scotla nd those changes already across scotland with some blue skies coming through there. that is behind this

where the front which is moving its way southwards taking the rain with it. as that moves southward it will allow colder airfrom the it. as that moves southward it will allow colder air from the arctic to move further south. it is turning colder across northern areas for today, tonight and into tomorrow. for the rest of the afternoon still some rain in wales, the midlands, eastern england. brighter skies but sunshine in southern areas and increasingly northern areas. big contrast in temperatures though. eight or ten in the south but further north we will see those temperatures tumble away. through tonight this area of rain will move southwards and there will be some clearing skies across many parts except the far south—west where temperatures will stay in double figures. elsewhere there will be much colder nights and there will be some frost in scotland in the far west of england. with that rain moving south and clear skies tonight into tomorrow morning's rush hour

there is a risk of ice in central areas so if you are travelling their bear that in areas so if you are travelling their bearthat in mind. areas so if you are travelling their bear that in mind. but it will be a lovely sunny start to the day and we will keep that sunshine throughout the day on friday. still some cloud in the far south—west of england and temperatures still nine celsius there. elsewhere you'll notice those temperatures dropping away. there will at least be some sunshine though. on into the weekend and we have this area of low pressure which moves its way eastwards affecting south—western areas with higher pressure dominating elsewhere. a quite and chilly start to saturday with some mist and fog patches. lots of sunshine throughout the day with the exception of the south—west corner where it will stay cloudy and rainy with gusty winds and temperatures around 10 celsius. elsewhere it is a cold day with temperatures at three to six or seven degrees. that low pressure moves down towards france and the high pressure system sticks around into sunday so more sunshine

expected but again really quite chilly. start next week with that high pressure system but from mid week onwards it will turn unsettled with more cloud and rain but temperatures will start rise again.

you're watching bbc newsroom live. it's midday and these are the main stories... the conservatives and labour are accused of not presenting credible spending plans by a leading economic research group. both, though, risk ending up borrowing a lot more than they are saying, either because we end up with the economy doing much worse or, in labour's case, because they don't get anywhere near as much tax in as they are suggesting. or for the conservatives, they realise they have to spend more than they are saying. i'm martine croxall in cheltenham where the lib dems have their sights set on overturning the tory majority here. tensions escalate between china and the us — after president trump signs a bill supporting hong kong's pro—democracy protesters campaigners want the price of a ‘bag for life' to rise to 70p

to cut the amount of plastic we use. # teardrop on the fire. and find out how the music industry is doing its bit for climate change. good afternoon. welcome to bbc newsroom live. economic leading group said neither the conservatives are labour were being honest with voters. they said

the conservatives were continuing to pretend tax rises would never be needed to secure decent public services. labour, he added pretends that a huge increases and spending can be financed by big companies and the rich. earlier i spoke to our economics editor. he gave his opinion on the ifs announcement. a plague on all your houses, as in fiscal terms, for very different reasons, it should be said. the main criticism of labour, as he just heard there, some of the spending on investment, that is on buildings, hospitals, roads and railways, things like that, so big that they want to be able to deliver it. so what sort of message are you sending to the public? and that it is highly likely that with the levels of tax that they want to increase the tax part by, that would impact upon, directly or indirectly, more than just the top 5% of earners. for example, through the marriage

tax allowance being abolished, things like dividends and capital gains, whilst accruing to slightly better off people, some of those recipients would be outside of the top 5%. for the conservatives, though, no respite either. in particular on this issue of the die in the ditch style commitment to leaving the negotiations after we brexit for a free trade agreement. it is in the manifesto, the idea that we might end up on world trade organisation terms and therefore tariffs, taxes on trade, by the end of next year. that is seen by these economists as being highly damaging to the economy. and so potentially damaging, this is what is quite interesting, we know about labour‘s borrowing, they pitched that, difficult to calculate, at about 3.5% of the size of the economy. but they say conservatives are on course for half of that, 2%, as you might expect

from the plans, but if we left without a deal in terms of future trading arrangements at the end of next year, the conservative deficit could be 4%. of the same order, potentially even higher. and the conservatives will have something to say about that. that is quite an extraordinary finding. and it illustrates that there are other things going on in the manifesto other than the big pledges on tax spending and investment. you have got to wonder, don't you, whether voters factor in or listen to the parties talk about spending plans are tax promises, whether the voters factor in those pledges, those promises, are quite ambitious, shall we call it? really, the ifs are pointing out here is very different choice, a stark choice, between those two parties. yes, certainly by uk standards, labour's plans for spending and taxation on a sustained basis haven't really been seen before. labour is happy to go with that. that is the offer they think the public wants.

the conservative's spending and taxation plans are a little bit bigger, but that implies, from the austerity we've seen, it has been baked into plans. so in areas outside of the nhs, 14% already cuts in spending, have been baked in, lower than where we were in 2010, they are already baked in. i think that is quite interesting, that difference, that stark choice. the ifs also point out the sort of state we are talking about for the united kingdom, though bigger than historical standards, would put us in between the netherlands and germany in terms of european standards. so, yes, historically a bigger state in terms of spending in terms of the uk, the kind of the average where europe is generally. but a significant difference between the two main parties.

we showed you some minutes ofjo swinson's speech. let's return to that now. so we have got a journalist from having to post. do you think the policy of revoking article 50 is naive? i welcome the fa ct article 50 is naive? i welcome the fact he is encouraging people to vote liberal democrat. we are about stopping brexit. it is obvious and not surprising we have said a liberal democrat majority government would revoke article 50 and we will continue to campaign for the people's vote that we have a the campaignfor in people's vote that we have a the campaign for in parliament and around the country. i think the fact that someone like michael heseltine,

a former cabinet minister, effective deputy prime minister for the conservative party, is encouraging people to vote liberal democrat speaks volumes about how far the conservatives have departed that territory of one nation conservatism. and it is backed up by nigel farage standing down for the conservatives. it is very, very clear for people that what is now on offer is a take over of the conservative party by the brexit party. that is something which many people do look at and feel they want another way forward. the liberal democrats are giving people that choice. emily do you still think he can be prime minister and do you think you can stop borisjohnson?” would love to be prime minister, particularly when i see what is on offer. when you look at the polls at

this stage in the campaign, that is unlikely as we stand here right now. we are in a position where we can stop borisjohnson we are in a position where we can stop boris johnson being we are in a position where we can stop borisjohnson being prime minister. that is hugely important with two weeks to go. it is important we get the message out there. i think what the polling shows, it is not a prediction of what is going to happen, it doesn't ta ke what is going to happen, it doesn't take into account many seats and circumstances and it does not take into account the kind of squeeze voting that happens in many constituencies, as liberal democrats we are well used to campaigning under the first past the post voting system, which has all the floors we have a well documented. what it shows when we are in second place in 134 seats on the current snapshot, we are in a position to challenge the conservatives and when seats from them, not just the conservatives and when seats from them, notjust places where we have been in close contests, but also places where they have been

pretty heartland tory seats, places which were margaret thatcher's north constituency, places where the foreign secretary is under attack from the liberal democrats and we are liberal democrats could peal a moment that i think everybody would wa nt to moment that i think everybody would want to stay up for. peter from the guardian. boris johnson has refused dotted public has been asked, about the number of children he has.|j have two children by the way. applause i think applause ithinki applause i think i would have noticed, and i did notice both times. everybody

makes their own decisions about where they draw that line in terms of family life. i think that is an important line that people who we love, ourfamilies, important line that people who we love, our families, are important line that people who we love, ourfamilies, are able to have privacy. that is hugely important. to be honest, what was troubling for me was to see that he did not seem to know the wheels of the bus. the wheels of the bus. how could you have any child and not know that song. i think parents who are not —— people who are not parents themselves know that song. it is not difficult to pick up. that was a moment in the campaign that i did, i was not a floating voter anyway, to be fair, but he would have definitely lost me at that point. and that is jo definitely lost me at that point. and that isjo swinson the liberal democrat leader they are answering questions in london. she has been visiting a homeless shelter. and borisjohnson,

visiting a homeless shelter. and boris johnson, meanwhile, his visiting a homeless shelter. and borisjohnson, meanwhile, his most senior adviser has warned the election race is tighter than the opinion polls are suggesting. mr cummings who ran the vote league campaign with mrjohnson wrote in his blog that brexiteers risk handing victory to labour if the vote for the brexit party mp marginals. let's talk now to our political correspondent who is travelling with the conservative campaign. he is on a bus in devon. let's talk first of all, if we may, about that ifs statement, casting doubts on the credibility of the conservative spending plans, labour as well, saying it is highly likely that the conservatives if they get back into government would have to raise taxes or borrow more money. i'll be going to see this addressed by borisjohnson today? i'll be going to see this addressed by boris johnson today? hello. yes, i will get a chance to ask boris johnson about that later this

afternoon. if ifs posing hard questions for both the main parties. as you said, they say the conservative manifesto, a pretty thin document, really, compared to previous manifestos, modest in the costings and spending promises it is stating, they believe the party if they win the election will have to go for higher borrowing or higher taxes to pay for the side of things they are talking about. they also made the point, particularly on social care, an issue that that everybody accepts needs to be tackled, the conservative plan is nothing but an uncosted aspiration, there is no idea of how the plan will pan out or how much it will cost. the ifs beams a focus on both the manifestos and is asking tough questions of the two parties. more broadly on the campaign on those warnings from dominic cummings about complacency for the conservatives. what is your gut feeling of how the party, the position the party thinks

it is in, how worried are they about losing seats because of the brexit party factor? well, i think there is a buoyancy in the tory campaign. i think they know it is going as well as they could have expected it to. they look at the polls, they know they are ahead. they will be encouraged by the suggesting they are on course to a tory majority. but, and a very big one, there is still a fortnight ago. this election in particular is really hard to predict how the seats will be won and lost on the night based on a protected national swing in a poll like this. local factors will make a huge difference, we have seen a fracturing of party ties across the country, we do not know how to brexit is going to ricochet through this result. i think they will be keeping the excitement in check. publicly, they will want to be. they do not want to look complacent, they

will not want to look like this is in the band and the cantering towards a victory. it was interesting that blog you mentioned that dominic cummings published last night, the chief advisor to the prime minister, he said do not believe the polls, the conservatives wa nt believe the polls, the conservatives want this to look close, they are going to talk up the chances of a hung parliament and a potential alliance between labour, the liberal democrats and the snp. we need tory voters to turn out, particularly in the south—west. this is a traditional liberal democrat and tory battle ground. the conservatives are in control at the moment and defending seats they need to win. 0k, thank you very much. throughout this election campaign we've been reporting from some key battleground constituencies — let's go to my colleague martine croxall who is in one for us today —

as anita says, throughout the campaign, bbc news is looking at places where this election could be won and lost. we are visiting ten parts of the country where seats are being closely contested. today we are in cheltenham. the seat is also held by the conservatives. they took cheltenham four years ago with a swing of 10% from the liberal democrats who had held the seat for 23 years. the liberal democrats are hoping to regain the seat this year. the conservatives have a majority of just over two and half thousand. more than a quarter of the people here are aged between 20 and 39. 56% of people voted to remain in the eu in the area of cheltenham that was used to count the votes in the referendum. let's talk more about what matters to local people with the chief cheltenham reporter of the

gloucestershire live news website. you are born and bred in the town. it could be then a national issue of brexit that has quite a bearing on how people choose to vote this time. absolutely. that is an issue for the oil country and here in cheltenham as well. the people of cheltenham mainly voted to remain, just. it was 56%. there was not a lot in it. yes, they voted to remain but there were a lot of people who feel the other way about it. and as well, there is a very local issue that could affect westminster politics. that is access to the town's centre and the congestion that the town has suffered an tally the two local authorities are in disagreement on how to control that. this issue is locally known as bit‘s corner. the area of the town where the main road

ru ns area of the town where the main road runs past bits. there is a ban on general traffic using that area. this is the idea of the local council, which is run by the liberal democrats, but if it is implemented and it is still a trial at the moment, it would be conducted by gloucestershire county council, conservative run authority. you those two conflicting critical aspirations in terms of how to deal with traffic congestion and pollution in the centre of cheltenham. and mixed views on how successful the trail is. businesses are saying they cannot get goods from lorries. it is a very local issue that a national politician, of whatever stripe, will not be able to control. it could influence how people vote. it could. it is that dichotomy, isn't it, a local issue thatis dichotomy, isn't it, a local issue that is extremely important to the

people of cheltenham that will ultimately be controlled locally, however, they are asked to vote nationally at the general election time. there is that awkwardness really with the situation and an issue like traffic congestion. we are here at the pump rooms, a splendid regency building and there area splendid regency building and there are a lot of them still in cheltenham. housing, though, is an issue that is of concern to a lot of people. although it is a fairly affluent town, some people do struggle to get on the housing ladder. yes, there are two sides to every argument and two aspects to every argument and two aspects to every issue. there are people in cheltenham who are calling for more housing. those people who are on the waiting list with the council, they are desperate for new homes to be built here. the environmentalists are very built here. the environmentalists are very worried that the new houses will have to be built on greenfield sites, peaceful countryside, on the edge of cheltenham. there is a

proposal to build nearly 5000 houses, almost a new town on the edge of town. are the authority affordable houses —— men are the affordable houses —— men are the affordable houses? they will be a percentage. they are already talking about building new roads to accommodate that new housing estate. thank you very much forjoining us. it is really good to get the insight if your local reporter who has grown up if your local reporter who has grown up in the town. that is robert jenkins, the chief reporter for gloucestershire live news website. we will carry on talking about the issue of housing later on after 1230. join us then. eu net migration — the difference between the number of eu citizens coming to live

in the uk and those leaving — has fallen to its lowest level for 16 years. in the 12 months to the end ofjune, there an estimated 48,000 eu migrants came to the uk. add in net migration from outside the eu and the figure rises to over 200,000 — well above the governments target of getting net migration down to 100,000 a year. the office for national statistics, which published the figures, says fewer people from the eu are coming to britain to work. madeleine sumption from the migration observatory gave us her analysis. eu migration has been on a bit of a roller—coaster ride over the last 15 yea rs. roller—coaster ride over the last 15 years. they have been high points and low points. it is quite difficult. at the moment, this is a period of low migration from eu countries. it is difficult to know whether that would continue in the absence of any policy changes. things can be unpredictable. absence of any policy changes. things can be unpredictablem absence of any policy changes. things can be unpredictable. it is time for the sport. uk athletics has commissioned an independent review to look into its own relationship with coach alberto salazar and the now—disbanded nike oregon project.

a panel appointed by uk athletics in 2015 said there was "no reason" to remove british athletes from salazar's programme, despite allegations that american had broken anti—doping rules. salazar was susequently banned forfouryears and nike have shut down his group. salazar is appealing against his ban. there are five british sides playing in the europa league today. celtic, rangers and manchester united and wolves are all in action arsenal need a draw at home against eintracht frankfurt to qualify from their group. the manager unai emery says it the "perfect chance to reconnect with supporters" after a run of six games without a win. the club is supporting me. ifeel the club is responsible in that area

are backing me. i appreciate it a lot. i feel strong without support. i know it is my responsibility to come back and change that situation. we need a good connection with our supporters. overall, i need to be strong in my consistency. the second test against new zealand starts tonight, and england wicket keeper jos buttler could miss out with a back problem. ollie pope could keep wicket in his absence. he last took the gloves in febriary playing for the england lions.kent batsman zak crawley could make his debut should buttler have to sit out the match. england lost the first test against the kiwis and a lot of the build up to this match has focussed on the captain's poor form and england's failure with the bat in terms of when we say about long, it does not mean we have to block it for three days and hope we will get

toa for three days and hope we will get to a big score. it means reading the situation and making good decisions for long periods of time, which allows you to that long. everyone has their own way of doing it. it is finding that fit around the situations you find yourself. there's live commentary on the first day of the second test in hamilton on radio 5 live sports extra. play starts at 10pm, and there's full text commentary on the bbc sport website. england remember are one down in the two match series it isa it is a two match series and the last of the first one. we are back after the one o'clock news. thank you very much. lots of events are taking place today. nigel farage has been speaking. i think that event has

just ended. tell us more about what has been said. a lot of people are just leaving. it was quite a party vibe this morning. a lot of the candidates were coming up on stage to music. there was a bar on stage. we know nigel farage loves those opportunities. the main point was brexit, get brexit done. we talked about the fishing industry here and about the fishing industry here and a lot of it has gone away. he wants to bring that back and take control of the seas again. as expected, also a big attack, tactical attack, on labour. he once there was a labour leave votes. we know hull is a labour stronghold. 67% of people voted to leave the european union and there was the seats he is trying to get. he has made it very clear he is not going up against the

conservative seats. he has made brexit party members stand down there. in this contract with the people, he is trying to get these labour voters because you do see quite a lot of similarities with the labour manifesto. they are not calling it a manifesto, it is the contract with the people. he wants to improve the standard of living, and he spoke about the nhs, giving it the money it needs and making sure that it is not for sale, saying it is still going to be publicly owned. there has been a fair bit of criticism towards the contract for the people, it has not been costed and it is big. nigel farage getting the party atmosphere going here. they are heading off to go and camp in any local area to try and get some of those labour seats. —— to go and campaign. is this party going to cut through and get the labour seats they are vying for? thank you very

much. the family of harry dunn, who was killed when he was knocked off his motorbike, has begun legal proceedings against the foreign office. harry's parents allege granting diplomatic immunity to the main suspect, in the 19—year—old's death, was "wr the foreign office has said it would "oppose and seek costs" for anyjudicial review. one of the uk's biggest cinema chains plans to restart screenings of "blue story" this weekend after banning it from all of its uk sites. vue stopped showing the film, about london gangs, after a number incidents at its cinemas — including a mass fight in birmingham. tolu adeoye reports. it was this brawl involving up to 100 teenagers in birmingham that led to vue banning blue story, a film about two friends caught up in postcode gang rivalry in london. it started in the actual screening itself of blue story, and it spilt out into the foyer. and then it got really

' kly. but the decision to withdraw the film from all its uk screens upset many, including blue story‘s director. it was, like, breaking my heart. because i'm getting calls every day, we're doing this well, we're doing that well, doing so well, it's getting so well received. and then, to get pulled from every cinema... vue's boss said the decision was only ever about safety, and the film will soon return to its screens, with additional security arrangements. speaking to the community, speaking to the producers and directors, we are now comfortable that we can guarantee the safety of our staff and customers to put it back on our screens. both sides will hope the focus can now return to the film itself. now it's time for a look at the weather. hello. we've still got some rain around today. particularly pleasant.

this was norwich about an hour ago. the arenas across northern ireland, north of england and it is stretching to the north—east —— south—east as well. heavy showers to the north. here it is colder, brighter and sunny. showers on the east coast. mild air still with us in the south, which has brought rain. that northerly wind is making its presence felt further north. overnight tonight, pushing the rain southwards, with temperatures plummeting away, we have an ice risk overnight tonight, particularly where the roads and pavements are damp. with those showers and the frost, it is going to be treacherous underfoot and on the roads. at least we will enjoy crisp sunshine tomorrow. yes, it will be colder, but the good news is we have drier

weather. more whether later. ——weather.

hello, this is bbc newsroom live with annita mcveigh. the headlines... the conservatives and labour are accused of not presenting credible spending plans — by a leading economic research group. tensions escalate between china and the us — after president trump signs a bill supporting hong kong's pro—democracy protesters. vue cinemas looks to resume screenings of blue story... days after it banned the film for allegedly sparking violence at some of its venues. campaigners want the price of a ‘bag for life' to rise to 70 pence to cut the amount of plastic we use. well, let's get more on that institute for fiscal studies

briefing this morning — where we found that the highly respected organisation found that both the conservative's and labour's spending plans weren't quote — ‘credible'. pauljohnson is the director of the ifs and joins me now from our westminster studio. good afternoon. this is quite a telling off for both labour and the conservatives. neither of them are being honest, you say. if you look at the conservative manifesto i think two things come from it immediately. one is that there is a number of uncosted promises in there. they say they will do things for the northern powerhouse, increasing further education investment spending and so on but you can't see those numbers anywhere in their costings document. but in general it has very little in it. that would imply that beyond the increases in health and school spending they have promised that they wouldn't increase spending at

all over the next five years and we know that looking at their 2015 and 2017 manifesto they ended up behaving quite differently in government to what they had in their ma nifestos. government to what they had in their manifestos. you then look at the labour manifesto and it is the precise opposite. talking about £100 billion of spending on day—to—day things and another 50 odd billion on investment spending, this is per year, this would take spending to levels never seen in the uk and they also take about a huge increase in tax but all of that is apparently paid for by someone else, companies and the rich. i think it is neither credible to increase spending that far that quickly but also if you really wa nt far that quickly but also if you really want to increase taxes that much you're going to need broader increases in taxes which is what every other country with that level of spending does. what we are not saying is that the end point isn't credible. lots of other countries in western europe have much bigger states with much higher tax burdens

but you need to take care in getting there and you need to admit tax burden will be more widely shared. is typical an election campaign? we see parties making pledges and promises that are perhaps too modest or too ambitious and the voters factor that in or do you think it is exceptional in this particular election? i think what is really exceptional this time is the sheer space between the two big parties. whatever you think of the specifics, it is pretty obvious where they will both go. the conservatives are saying, "steady as she goes, not much additional change in tax," so if you think things are broadly going on the right direction then the conservatives are speaking to you. the labour party on the other hand, whatever you might think of the specifics of what they are

saying, are talking about enormous, radical, revolutionary change to how we run the, economy, to the size and scale of the welfare state. we would quibble with the specifics and we would certainly quibble with the idea that the conservatives will spend as much as they say and we will quibble with the idea that labour will only direct taxes to the companies in the rich, the gap between them i think is clear enough for most people. they think something like this assessment might produce some new commentary from those two parties in the couple of remaining weeks of this campaign? do you think it will put pressure on them to say they may tax a bit more or spend a bit less's i don't know. that is for them to come up with. it would be helpful to get a really clear statement from the

conservatives. spending on schools and health, as i say, is rising but if they are not putting other spending on their manifestos it would be nice for them to be absolutely clear that there won't be more for local governments, justice, higher education and so on. from labour, it would be nice to hear from them. what if rather than the 80 billion they would get from the tax rises, supposing you only got 50 billion, what would you do then? would you borrow more race taxes somewhere else? is this an insult to the voters then miss i don't think it is because i think the sense of direction is fair. i do think it is a shame that neither is really being honest about what it takes to run a welfare state on a scale that either are talking about. the conservatives have said no increases in vat and income tax. if we are going to continue to spend more on health and schools we will at some point need

to do something with the taxes. we can't just pretend it to do something with the taxes. we can'tjust pretend it will stay to do something with the taxes. we can't just pretend it will stay the same forever. on labour they are talking about a massive increase in the role of the state which is manageable in the long run but i think it is, i think people shouldn't take at face value the idea that nobody on less than £80,000 will be made worse off by their tax proposals. both directly they will and then directly they will. good to talk to you. paul johnson, the director of the institute for fiscal studies. throughout this election campaign we've been reporting from some key battle ground constituencies — let's go to my colleague martine croxall who is in one for us today — martine. yes, that's right bbc news is looking closely at the places where the election could be won and lost. we are visiting 10 parts of the uk where seats will be closely

today, we're in cheltenham, which is in gloucestershire. this seat has been held by the conservatives since 2015 — and is bordered by two other constituencies, also belonging to the tories. the conservatives took cheltenham four years ago with a swing of 10% from the liberal democrats, who had held the seat for 23 years. but the liberal democrats will be hoping to regain the seat this year — the conservatives have a majority ofjust over 2,500. our correspondentjon kay has been looking at the key issues concerning voters here, and he's found out that for cheltenham, housing could be a deciding factor... cheltenham: an elegant regency spa town famed for its crescents and colonnades. but take a short drive from the centre and you'll soon find the same housing issues as anywhere else. the cornerstone centre, here in the suburb of whaddon,

many parents talk of high rents, cold homes and long waiting lists. bailiffs were gonna to come to my door and... kelly tells me she and her kids were kicked out of three places by private landlords before they finally got a council flat. so how stressful is that for you as a...? yeah, really stressful, because we didn't know whether or not we was going to get a council property. do you imagine yourself ever being able to buy somewhere of your own? not at the moment, no, no. it's just too expensive. maybe if i won the lottery! rent caps, tenant's rights, overcrowding, affordability, all big election themes here. are they going to be providing enough schools for the children? laura says it's notjust about promising new homes, but building whole communities. so i will be looking at it for who i vote for, i want it to be kind of part of their bigger plan. i mean, for me, brexit is not the biggest issue, for me. i know it's the biggest issue for the parties, but it's not for me, personally.

all the parties are making big headline—grabbing promises on housing at this election, and it's an issue that really matters to voters here in cheltenham, where the conservatives won last time with a majority of 2,500. among the many policies on offer, the lib dems, who hope to win this seat, have pledged millions to insulate homes. billions to insulate homes. the conservatives have promised to build 1 million new properties in the next five years. and labour plan a major expansion of council housing. what we do is when we fit the windows... josh is a builder, but needs a deposit of £22,000 to buy a home of his own. how am i ever going to get anywhere? with i'm what i'm paying now, and trying to save £22,500, it takes — it's impossible. is there any chance you could save that much? i mean, how long do you think it would take? years, years? ten years? so there'd be 4,000 homes... if all these new properties

are going to be built across the country, where will they go and what will be the impact? i know it will be very different in the future. on the outskirts of cheltenham, helen's been campaigning for years to protect this cotswold land from development. we have to think of the wider picture, the balance of the existing environment today, and what we need long—term. it's not just profitability for the developer. this election could bring big changes for housing, our planning laws, how we use greenbelt and brownfield sites. how we vote could affect notjust how we live, but where. jon kay, bbc news, cheltenham. so what do you do if you are priced out of the housing market? i'm joined by ramona amuza, the homeshare gloucestershire manager and age uk gloucestershire and two homesharers mother and daughter emma

and georgine parrish—andrew. thank you forjoining us here in splendour. what is time—share? how does it work? it brings together eve ryo ne does it work? it brings together everyone who has a spare room in their home. it brings together with other people. it could be anyone over 18. it gives them time in the u of the accommodation. so it isn't free? it is much more affordable. you came here because georgina wa nted you came here because georgina wanted to go to the local university asa wanted to go to the local university as a veterinary nursing student. what appealed to you about home share? georgina didn't really like the student accommodation. she didn't adjust very well with other students coming and going and loud noises. she loves being in a home environment. so it is looking for

affordable housing for herbert where she felt safe and comfortable and obviously with me being thousands of miles away, also peeling safe and comfortable knowing that she had somewhere to stay and having companionship as well. what are the advantages for you, georgina? we we re advantages for you, georgina? we were speaking to when earlier whose home you live in. it is nice to be able to live in a house and feel you have company there and you are not disturbing anyone and just have someone there to talk to and be your friend, really. in student accommodation people come and go when they like. everything is a mess everywhere all the time. it is just nice to be in a home environment and feel safe. and when they get your help and support? she does. i can help and support? she does. i can help her with washing up, cleaning, walking her dog, just anything. even if shejust walking her dog, just anything. even if she just wants to sit down and have a chat with a cup of tea that is what i'm there for. loneliness is a great problem in this country is lots of people say. ramona, how did

it help you because you were a home share? i didn't really know many people when i came to this country. i live with this really lovely older couple and ended up staying for four years and they became like family. it was fantastic and it allowed me to study full time and work part—time and save some money to buy a place of my own. it wasjust absolutely amazing. some people will still have the aspiration to own their own home. absolutely. it is so difficult with the rents being the way they are so full me home sharing wasjust ideal and way they are so full me home sharing was just ideal and it way they are so full me home sharing wasjust ideal and it was great. householders were safe and i was safe and all our families love the fa ct safe and all our families love the fact that we just had each other there to look after each other. georgina, how important is the housing issue in this election? is it the one thing at the forefront of your mind? i —— are there other things that will influence your vote ? things that will influence your vote? there are lots of things.

obviously social care. some people are worried about their own homes and if they can afford to stay there. also the health care and the national health service, that is a worry. climate change. everything, absolutely everything. if you don't mind me asking, have you decided who to vote for and what basis you will cast that vote? i have no idea. it changes all the time. you hear some things. everything isjust all over the place, really. it is trying to get a straight answer from someone to know exactly what is going to happen and what will help the environment and what is going to help the nhs, the elderly care, social care, housing. everything, really. what about you, georgina? you won't hear for the referendum on brexit so what is your view of the political scene at the moment? brexit so what is your view of the political scene at the moment7m brexit so what is your view of the political scene at the moment? it is really difficult because whenever politicians get asked a question it

isjust a politicians get asked a question it is just a mix—up. politicians get asked a question it isjust a mix—up. you never get a straight answer and you never know what they are saying is going to be put in place anyway. it is really difficult to know what to choose and where to go and what direction to put your vote in because it isjust so difficult. everything is so mixed up. it is very complicated, isn't it? there are no simple answers. emma, georgina and ramona thank you very much forjoining us here and telling us about home share and how it works. we can head across town now and hear from it works. we can head across town now and hearfrom our it works. we can head across town now and hear from our presenter. susannah streeter who's at hesters way community resource centre. yes, i'm in the centre which is a real community hub. we are in the cafe, of course, but there is also a doctor's surgery, a hairdresser and even apc drop—in centre where you can mend broken bits of kit. it is a real aid for the local community. we are in the largest area of social

housing in the whole of gloucestershire yet just a housing in the whole of gloucestershire yetjust a mile away there are £2 million town houses, so there are £2 million town houses, so there is a real economic gulf amongst immunities in this town. the small business sector is trying to work hard to try and bridge that gap by giving support to entrepreneurs and start—ups to really take growth on and expand but are finding it really difficult to do so. let's have a chat to nigel who runs the kitchen. the business kitchen. very apt that we are in a cafe with a kitchen behind us. tell us about your company and how you help small businesses grow. one of the challenges for small businesses is that you may be very skilled but you don't necessarily have all the skills you have to grow your business or confidence, so we bring together groups of businesses and work with them for a year, meeting

once a month. they learn business skills and apply them to the businesses and more importantly help each other and give each other the courage to move their businesses forward. we have worked with about 100 businesses in gloucestershire on that basis and many more on short courses. what i tell you about the main issues and what they want a nswered main issues and what they want answered on election? the main concern across all the businesses is the uncertainty. it is slowing everything down. i think nervousness among some of them, get brexit done people are saying, but in some sectors of our membership they are very worried about the what that might mean, people who are exporting to europe for example, things like getting the right skilled workers in gloucestershire, we have a real shortage of skilled people, there area shortage of skilled people, there are a lot of polish workers and things that come here and they will

be less inclined to come and they are going home and leaving businesses here in the lurch. so those are the main issues. businesses here in the lurch. so those are the main issueslj businesses here in the lurch. so those are the main issues. i know very briefly you held a breakfast meeting this morning with businesses in cheltenham. i asked everyone in the room what the big issues were and the most popular one was business rates, you might think that is about the retail sector but there was someone there from an industrial estate who isn't expanding his business because he would have to pay an extra £3500 a month in business rates. that is stopping people. the skill sector, people coming out of school without the skills to get into business or know how to deal with people and work beyond the academic things. i think those are the couple of issues that came out. lots of different issues. so many more than we have time to go into today. i know one of them though and nigel was telling the earlier it is child care costs. there is a nursery here on site of

this community centre to try and encourage pa rents this community centre to try and encourage parents to go back to work more quickly but of course childcare costs are very prohibitive for some and that is an issue might look at later today. back to an eater in the studio. the headlines on bbc news... the conservatives and labour are accused of not presenting credible spending plans by a leading economic research group. tensions have escalated between china and the us after president trump signed a bill supporting hong kong's pro—democracy protesters. and vue cinemas says it will resume screenings of blue story...just days after it banned the film for allegedly sparking violence at some of its venues. environmental campaigners are calling for charges on supermarket "bags for life" to be raised to 70 pence. it comes as research shows use

of the plastic bags has risen again this year to one—and a—half—billion — that's a total of 54 for every household in the uk per year. — that's a total of 54 for every andy moore reports. — that's a total of 54 for every it has been hailed as a huge success, the law requiring supermarkets to charge for every single—use plastic bag. but are we just swapping one bad habit for another? so the supermarkets want us to switch from these disposable bags, price 5p here, to these so—called bags for life, price 10p here. but the environmental groups say the price difference is just too small. they would like to see the charge for bags for life raised to at least 70p. sainsbury‘s recently doubled their charge for more durable bags from 10p to 20p, and got quite a lot of stick from some of their customers for that. bag for life is a good thing if it's being used for life, as the name suggests. but our figures show that these are just being used for a week, if that, by a lot of customers.

the low price means that there's not the incentive for people to reuse. and there's also issues with biodegradable plastics. they don't always break down in the natural environment, so they can cause just as much harm as a conventional plastic. environmental groups say bags for life are usually bigger and contain more plastic. it is part of the reason why overall plastic use in supermarkets is actually growing. but the supermarkets say they are aware of the problem, and are doing their best to tackle it. lidl, for example, is stopping selling bags for life in its welsh stores, and will do so in the rest of the uk if the experiment works. andy moore, bbc news. president donald trump has approved a new law backing protesters in hong kong despite angry objections from beijing. )the legislation requires the state department to certify that hong kong retains enough autonomy to justify favourable us trading terms. china has warned it will take firm counter—measures.

protestors in hong kong have been barricaded in a university for weeks after violent clashes with police — but officers have this morning entered the campus. our correspondent nick beake sent us this from inside the university. well, all morning the police have been on campus trying to gather evidence. and you can see, these are more petrol bombs that they have been collecting and taking away and they are bagging all this up. they are making it safe. but also crucially, it could be evidence, because police have been saying this is still a crime scene, really. this has been the place where we have seen some of the most dramatic and violent episodes since the crisis began in hong kong five or six months ago. today, as well as these officers, there are social workers, psychologists and the police say their priority is not arresting people today, but trying to make their way throughout the various buildings here. class rooms, lecture theatres, store rooms, and trying to see if there are any remaining protesters that may have been hiding in this place. now, at the same time

that the authorities here take away petrol bombs, president trump in the united states has thrown his own molotov cocktail into the crisis here in hong kong, certainly in the eyes of china, because they are furious with the legislation that has been passed over night in america. and basically, this means that now at least every year, the americans will look at what is happening here in the city in hong kong and they will try and work out whether beijing is eroding fundamental liberties, civil liberties. if the decision is taken that, yes, that is the case, possibly there could be sanctions in the future. the chinese have said this is completely unacceptable. they have called this an abominable act. at the same time, the democracy campaigners have really welcomed this. they say this is the best possible thanksgiving present. of course, at the weekend it was their candidates who were so successful. they stormed to a landslide victory in a local election.

if you talk to them today, they feel that not only to most of the people in hong kong support them, but also large parts of the international community are behind them in theirfight against beijing and of course the united states is one of the biggest players on the international scene. british scientists are creating a blueprint for bands and pop stars to continue to perform live music without contributing to climate change. the tyndall centre for climate change research is using tour data donated by the group massive attack — after the band said they wanted to help find solutions to the climate crisis. here's our environment reporter laura foster? music

since they broke out onto the global music scene in the 1990s, massive attack have sold millions of albums and toured the world. but after spending time with the environmental campaign group extinction rebllion, they've become more aware of the damage live music can cause the planet. they could have decided to never tour again, but instead wanted to help solve the problem by teaming up with scientists who will look at every aspect of their tour and help them reduce their carbon emissions to zero, or as close to zero as possible. whenever a celebrity, if you like, dares to say they want system change to tackle climate change people line up to say it's very hypocritical because they are part of a very high carbon sector and what's exciting about this project is it is saying, it is a high carbon sector and we need to try and tackle it because every sector has to be part of the transition to a no carbon economy. it's not the first time musicians have spoken out about the issue. last week coldplay announced it was why they wouldn't go on tour with their latest album, and fans of billie eilish

who are fighting climate change are going to be given free concert tickets. music given fans tend to idolise their favourite bands and artists, it is hoped that if more musicians are seen to be acting sustainably, it will encourage more of us to do the same. laura foster, bbc news. now, it's time for a look at the weather. good afternoon. lingering rain for england and wales has afternoon. the low pressure brings weather fronts southwards to allow this northerly wind and a ridge of high

pressure to move in across the uk. there is always low pressure nearby across the south—west but for most of us it will be a dry outlook. however, we still have a handful of warnings out at the moment and more details on the website. we still have some more rain to come over the next few hours. it will clear northern ireland and northern england but this range slowly meandering its way southwards. we have had dry weather over the south—west but we will see the rain arriving this evening and overnight. here we have that relatively mild weather still and readily see that dip in temperature further north. add in the wind and it will feel even chillier still. of course the sunshine helps. because we have had that wet weather and temperatures plummet overnight there is a chance of icejust plummet overnight there is a chance of ice just about anywhere overnight and shows continue in northern and eastern areas. you can see that frost is widespread for the midlands. a much colder start to our friday morning rush. wintry showers

over the hills of scotland but to relatively low levels. if we do see some showers we could see a little bit of wintry nests. temperatures will be three or 4 degrees down, hanging onto cloudy skies so feeling quite rainy and cold there in that win. tomorrow night and even more widespread frost with temperatures in the bigger towns and cities dropping a few degrees below freezing. so it will be a freezing cold start on saturday morning. then with the ridge of high pressure there will be lots of fine unsettled weather but this here is the fly in the ointment and will bring the risk of rain and wind into southern and western parts of england and wales. there could be some heavy rain and wintry weather. they could be showers over the east coast of england and scotland but by and large are much drier picture. we do eventually pick up some milder air next week. more online.

conservatives and labour are both accused of not presenting credible spending plans by a leading economic research group. the institute for fiscal studies says it's highly likely the tories would spend more than their manifesto pledges and that labour would be unable to deliver its spending promises. both, though, risk ending up borrowing a lot more than they're saying, either because we end up with the economy doing much worse, or in labour's case because they don't get anywhere near as much tax in as they're suggesting, or for the conservatives they find they actually have to spend more than they're saying. we'll have all the details of the ifs findings. also this lunchtime: net migration falls to its lowest level for nearly six years, driven by fewer people entering the country from the eu. tensions escalate between china and the us after president trump

signs a bill supporting hong kong's pro—democracy