conservatives and labour are both accused of not presenting credible spending plans by a leading economic research group. the institute for fiscal studies says it's highly likely the tories would spend more than their manifesto pledges and that labour would be unable to deliver its spending promises. both, though, risk ending up borrowing a lot more than they're saying, either because we end up with the economy doing much worse, or in labour's case because they don't get anywhere near as much tax in as they're suggesting, or for the conservatives they find they actually have to spend more than they're saying. we'll have all the details of the ifs findings. also this lunchtime: net migration falls to its lowest level for nearly six years, driven by fewer people entering the country from the eu. tensions escalate between china and the us after president trump signs a bill supporting

hong kong's pro—democracy protesters. every household in britain bought an average 5a "bags for life" last year — environmental campaigners say they should be much more expensive to curb plastic use. and we have a special report about the damage to the black sea, long used as a dumping ground for plastic and chemical waste. and coming up in the sport later in the hour on bbc news... uk athletics has launched an independent review into its relationship with the coach alberto salazar and the now—disbanded nike oregon project. good afternoon and welcome to the bbc news at one.

neither the conservatives nor labour are being honest about spending in the run—up to next month's election, according to the independent institute for fiscal studies. the research group has examined both parties‘ economic plans and say they're not credible because the tories would end up spending more than their manifesto pledge, and that labour would struggle to deliver the spending increases it has promised. the details come from our economics correspondent, andy verity. the institute for fiscal studies is look to for objective analysis and its objective view is neither major party is being honest. labour pretend huge increases in spending can be financed only by corporations and the rich, and conservatives can continue to pretend taxis won't have to rise. we know the conservatives over the last two electoral cycles have ended up spending and borrowing more than they said they would in their manifestos, i think that will happen again because they are

suggesting essentially nothing in the way of additional spending this time around. labour has an enormous ma nifesto, time around. labour has an enormous manifesto, vast spending increases which probably cannot be delivered ina single which probably cannot be delivered in a single parliament. the conservatives have promised no rise in income tax, national insurance of vat but with extra spending already pledged, they are likely to break their own rules on keeping borrowing down. the risk is if a brexit trade deal is not worked out by next year, borrowing will drop. we welcome scrutiny and if anyone cares to take a look they will see that alongside oui’ a look they will see that alongside our manifesto we have published the most detailed costings document any party have published in any general election. the liberal democrats are promising big increases to tax and spending, helping public services but needing tax rises. they acknowledge they will need to raise income tax by ip to pay for it. there is a lot of significant investments that liberal democrats will be making, and the ifs have

recognised that is normally a pretty radical manifesto to set out and it is one we can deliver as well. labour is planning the biggest increase in public spending in peacetime. the ifs says tax rises of £78 billion will be needed to make that transformation happen, which would still leave public spending lower than other countries such as germany, but it would leave all voters paying more, notjust corporations and the rich. voters paying more, notjust corporations and the richlj voters paying more, notjust corporations and the rich. i think oui’ corporations and the rich. i think our manifesto is bold, it's ambitious, it is prepared for, it is thought out, and there is a grey book that fully costs it. no other party has produced a fully costed ma nifesto party has produced a fully costed manifesto or put themselves up to that kind of scrutiny. the ifs warned all plans could be thrown into disarray by brexit, the final trade deal that is supposed to get done by the end of next year. labour's plans would require borrowing to rise but if under the

conservatives britain left the eu without a full blown trade deal, the ifs says, borrowing would have to rise by even more. andy verity, bbc news. lets get thoughts from norman smith. not credible, not a phrase any party wa nts to not credible, not a phrase any party wants to hear. no because all politicians crave the approval of the ifs because they are regarded as the high priests of public finance and politicians want them to give their manifesto the thumbs up so they can turn around to voters and say, look, our plans are affordable and deliverable. only the ifs seems to have given both the main parties ad— to have given both the main parties a d— for their efforts, notjust on spending but on other policies. on social care for example they say both the main parties are not offering credible proposals to ensure families don't face

catastrophic care costs. on benefit changes they are saying boris johnson is not doing anything to reverse existing benefit cuts whereas jeremy corbyn‘s reverse existing benefit cuts whereasjeremy corbyn‘s plans to scrap universal credit risks a decade of more upheaval and turmoil for claimants. on pensioners, they question while both the main parties are still seeking to shield pensioners and to ensure they enjoy continued relative generosity with pension rises and pension benefits like the winter fuel allowance, given so far previous governments have protected them from a lot of austerity. the consolation i suppose for borisjohnson austerity. the consolation i suppose for boris johnson and austerity. the consolation i suppose for borisjohnson and mr corbyn is the ifs seem to be saying, well, you are both as bad as each other. let's be honest, in the real world i suspect most voters are pretty battle hardened shall we say when it comes to believing everything they are promised during an election campaign. norman, thank you for now. our economics editor

faisal islam is with me. and it's for very different reasons in both houses. yes, with labour the spending and tax goes up considerably excuse me. then with the conservatives they say that's not quite right, they say... around brexit, borrowing might have to go up brexit, borrowing might have to go up more than you expect. we will let you have that because there's plenty more politics to discuss, fear not. with two weeks to polling day, labour is changing its election strategy in areas which supported brexit in an attempt to widen the party's appeal. members of the shadow cabinet who backed an eu withdrawal deal will be given a higher profile, while more activists are going to be sent to leave constituencies. jonathan blake is in southampton.

and how explicit or otherwise is all of this, this change of strategy, jonathan? jeremy corbyn speaking here at southampton football club this morning did not acknowledge any shift in labour's campaign strategy. he made a speech on the environment, setting out labour's plans to plant a2 setting out labour's plans to plant a 2 billion trees by 2040 and create national parks but in questions afterwards he set out the brexit policy in some detail, saying he would negotiate a new deal with the european union in three months, put it to european union in three months, put ittoa european union in three months, put it to a vote in six months, and link to the environment and brexit, say in close cooperation with other european countries was crucial in tackling climate change. he rejected a suggestion he would put forward a different message in leave voting areas saying he had the same message everywhere he went, that in 2016 and nobody voted to lose theirjob and that the country needed to come together over brexit. he is

certainly focused on that message, alongside his focus on the environment today as well, and on that eye—catching pledge to planned 2 billion trees by 2040, he admitted it was ambitious but said the land was available and it could be done. jonathan, thank you. jonathan blake. the dup launched its manifesto today, saying it is united in staunch opposition to a customs boder in the irish sea after brexit. the leader arlene foster said that the number of democratic unionists elected would determine the future shape and direction of the united kingdom, and they would continue to try to change the prime minister's brexit deal if borisjohnson remains in number10. the deal obviously that is there at the moment is not acceptable. and everyone across northern ireland knows the reasons for that. certainly unionism, as nigel has said, is united in relation to our rejection of the boris deal and therefore it needs to be changed. you can find out what each party is promising to do on the issues that matter

to you by using our general election policy guide, which lets you easily compare the parties' policies. find that at bbc.co.uk/news or on the bbc news app. net migration has fallen to its lowest level in nearly six years. in the year tojune, 212,000 more people moved to the uk than left. the office for national statistics says the figures are largely due to a fall in the number of people coming here from the eu to work. our home affairs correspondent, sarah corker, explains. the fendlands in eastern england, home to some of the nation's most fertile farm land and this area has long been a destination for migrants looking for work in the fields and factories. supermarkets and us, the customers, want fresh vegetables all year round. and it's tough, physical work.

farmers say they are finding it harder to get the number of people they need to meet the growing demand. there is a shortage of capable skilled workers out there and we are all competing for those workers. this farmer relies on eu workers to pick and pack his leaks. to pick and pack his leeks. 85% of his employees are eastern european. straight after the brexit vote in 2016, we saw a marked drop. i think the workers are very unsure whether they are welcome, what their status is going to be, even those who are permanently here now. but now we are finding year on year since then thathe availability of capable workers is dropping. and even now, we are about 12% short of what we need. in the 12 months tojune this year, an estimated 40,000 more eu an estimated 48,000 more eu nationals moved to the uk then left. that is actually the lowest level for 16 years. there has been a fall in people coming to the uk for work,

particularly from countries like poland, latvia, czech republic and hungary. in contrast, non—eu net migration has gradually increased since 2013. when the economy does well, we tend to see more people coming in. when it is not doing so well or when there is a lot of uncertainty, like there is at the moment, we see fewer and fewer. so it is really difficult to predict, for example, if you kept free movement in place, what eu migration would look like in five or ten years from now. wisbech in cambridgeshire has seen high levels of immigration. leonardo arrived three months ago from portugal. he's here to study. the course i am doing will give a lot of opportunities on the job area. and if everything goes right, i think i can have a good job and then come back to portugal. in fact, since 2016, the numbers choosing to study in the uk have gradually increased, while immigration for work, especially in the food industry, has dramatically fallen.

sarah corker, bbc news, cambridgeshire. the family of harry dunne who was killed when he was knocked off his motorbike has begun legal proceedings against the foreign office. harry's parents a granting diplomatic immunity to the main suspect in their son is death was wrong in law. the foreign office said it will oppose and seek costs for anyjudicial review. the first funerals have been held in vietnam for some of the 39 people found dead in a refrigerated lorry in essex last month. families of 16 of the victims have held services. the bodies of the other people who died are expected to be returned to vietnam from the uk this weekend. china has accused the united states of sinister intentions and has threatened counter measures after president trump signed

into a law a bill which supports pro—democracy protesters in hong kong. it requires american officials to assess whether the territory has enough autonomy from china to justify special trading terms with the us. nick beake reports. this university campus has been the battle ground for one of the fiercest fights in the struggle for hong kong. and their primitive weapons kept the police at bay. today, though, officers moved in and began the clear up. well, all morning the police have been gathering up the unused molotov cocktails the protesters left behind. and at the same time, china has been accusing president trump of throwing in his own petrol bomb into the situation in hong kong. i hereby grant you a full and complete pardon. as well as granting pardons, the president has just signed off a new law which could scrap the special trading status the us gives hong kong. that is if china isjudged to have

eroded hong kongers' freedoms. the move provoked fury in beijing, where officials said america had taken the side of violent criminals. translation: the chinese government will oppose any external forces interfering in hong kong's affairs. we advise the united states not to act arbitrarily, otherwise china will take firm countermeasures. all consequences of this must be borne by the united states. but back in hong kong, the pro—democracy movement, which has just triumphed in local elections, thanked president trump for a second victory inside a week. one prominent activist called on other countries to follow the us's lead. for a us president to sign on the hong kong human rights and democracy act, that is a remarkable achievement of all the hong kongers. itjust encourages world leaders around the world and politicians to be aware that it is time for them to stand with hong kong.

but, at the trashed university, the beijing—backed police are collecting evidence against protesters, which it hopes will stand up in court. all this in a city in crisis that is provoking increasing tension between the world's two superpowers. nick beake, bbc news, hong kong. the time is 1:16. our top story this lunchtime... conservatives and labour are both accused of not presenting credible spending plans by a leading economic research group. and a warning that black friday bargains are leading more people to turn to loan sharks to cover the bills. coming up in the sport in the next 15 minutes on bbc news... ollie pope is on standby to keep wicket for england in the second test against new zealand, which starts tonight. jos buttler‘s a doubt with a back injury. there's a call for supermarkets to increase the price of the plastic

"bag for life" to 70p. environmental campaigners say the move is necessary because 1.5 billion of the carriers were bought in the uk in the last year — that's 54 bags in every household. even though single—use bags are no longer sold by many supermarkets, the amount of plastic waste from the stores increased last year — to more than 900,000 tonnes. environmentalists say a bag for life must be used at least four times to have a positive impact. the supermarkets say they are tackling waste by reducing plastic packaging on their own—brand products. andy moore reports. it has been hailed as a huge success, the law requiring supermarkets to charge for every single—use plastic bag. but are we just swapping one bad habit for another? environmental groups would like to see the ice for a back to life raised to at least 70 p.|j

see the ice for a back to life raised to at least 70 p. i only personally use it if i've forgotten my bag. personally use it if i've forgotten . i personally use it if i've forgotten my bag. i don't know how much an increase in the price would change behaviour. there's so many cotton and jute bags out there, nobody needs to be using plastic ones and if they are going to get thrown away anyhow, let's produce less of them and use other alternatives. currently we don't reuse them because they are only ten p. however, if there were increased to 70p, then we would definitely be reusing them more. sainsbury‘s recently doubled their charge for more durable bags from 10p to 20p, and got quite a lot of stick from some of their customers for that. bag for life is a good thing if it's being used for life, as the name suggests. but our figures show that these are just being used for a week, if that, by a lot of customers. the low price means that there's not the incentive for people to reuse. and there's also issues with biodegradable plastics. they don't always break down in the natural environment, so they can cause just as much harm as a conventional plastic.

environmental groups say bags for life are usually bigger and contain more plastic. it is part of the reason why overall plastic use in supermarkets is actually growing. but the supermarkets say they are aware of the problem, and are doing their best to tackle it. people aren't using them so much, they are using them for a week and they are using them for a week and the weight of these bags is three times more, so actually in some cases we tripled the amount of plastic insert circulation and it's an unintended consequence and in hackney we trialled the first plastic bag free supermarket where we are only selling paper bags, and that trail has gone really well and it's something we are looking to roll out next year. lidl, for example, is stopping selling bags for life in its welsh stores, and will do so in the rest of the uk if the experiment works. andy moore, bbc news. for decades the black sea was used as a dumping ground for plastic

and chemical waste from south eastern europe, with things so bad that scientists considered parts of the sea almost entirely dead. in the first of a two part special report, our correspondentjonah fisher travelled across the region to find out whether there's any prospect of the area recovering. this is the dnieper in ukraine. for decades, large rivers have washed away eastern europe's waste into the black sea. we're being shown what's known as blooming. it happens when excess nutrients, often from fertilisers, cause a rapid growth in algae, starving the water of oxygen. decades of regular blooming has killed off life in large parts of the black sea, creating underwater deserts where onlyjellyfish thrive.

on the black sea's eastern coast in georgia, we see and smell another of its big problems. so this is the main rubbish dump here in batumi, but the big issue for here is that it's only about 300, 400 metres from this rubbish dump to the black sea itself, and there's a waterway which basically leads all the way down there. taking rubbish with it. this is just one of numerous examples around the black sea of how easily poorly managed waste can get into the water. we have already kind of disturbing evidence that the marine litter, which is number of floating items per square kilometre, is almost doubled compared to the mediterranean sea. it is the worst situation

for all the european seas. even more alarming is the evidence of how deep the contamination goes. we're on board a research vessel hundreds of kilometres from shore, and this probe is being sent two kilometres down to take samples from the seabed. analysis of the mud has revealed the presence of tiny fragments of plastic, known as micro plastics. the scientists also have worrying news about what they're discovering in the water. the biggest threat is coming from pharmaceuticals, especially from antibiotics. because if there is antibiotics in the black sea that means the bacteria will develop here that will resist the antibiotics and mean that ultimately that medicine doesn't work any more? yeah, this is now a real problem. people are dying from that. taken together, it's a sobering catalogue of environmental woe,

testament to decades of neglect and abuse. but in the next part of our black sea journey, we look at what's being done to turn things round, and discover that projects thousands of kilometres awayjust might make a difference. wow! jonah fisher, bbc news, in the black sea. you can see the second part of that report here in the one o'clock news here tomorrow. you may know that tomorrow is the shopping bonanza that is black friday. nearly £8 billion was spent online across last year's black friday sales, and similar sums are predicted to be spent this year. but there are concerns that the extra pressure to buy at this time of year is leading more people to turn to loan sharks to cover the bills, our consumer affairs correspondent colletta smith has been investigating. it can happen anywhere — it can happen in people's houses, it can happen on the doorstep,

it could happen at school gates, it could happen in the workplace. cath is helping victims every day — those who've turned to a loan shark for cash when they felt they didn't have an alternative. mainly it's, oh, i've heard that brian can help me out because i'm a bit short, or my friend julie uses this guy to get money from and i've heard he's ok, i'll go and borrow from there as well, and it's a friend of a friend. it's "i'll help you out", it's "don't worry about it, pay me back whenever," at the point at which they borrow. and recently, there's been a shift in who is needing the cash. last year we had over 50% of the people we helped were in work. we've hit the highest number of homeowners we've ever seen. the people who borrow from loan sharks is definitely getting more varied. so now there's a move to try and stop people getting into debt before we even reach christmas. this is going to be the web of wonder... here in bradford they're taking a stand against black friday and organising a "buy nowt" friday instead. free crafts and handmade gifts — they're hoping for up to 300 people through the doors,

getting advice on avoiding debt and spending less. the starting gun to christmas has been brought back earlier. they feel the pressure from the children. from society to spend that money early and by doing so it's not leaving that money available for later. obviously you're encouraging people to be saving here. yeah, definitely. allana has already started to see people struggling to pay their bills. they're borrowing from loan sharks, they are borrowing from other people, sometimes they're not paying some of their priority bills, just to be able to afford christmas presents for the children. and black friday as well — it feels like an extra temptation. it does, yeah. black friday, when you've got things on offer, you know, £20 or £30 cheaper, and you might buy one thing, but then you can be buying other things, adding into that basket. avoiding that temptation is hard, but those who turn to illegal loans find themselves trapped. cath will never forget one woman who paid off her debt, but kept paying when the loan shark made the worst threat. he'd actually picked up her teenage

daughters from school and walked them home, and he was nice as pie to them. he bought them ice cream on the way home. but, for her, that image of him standing there with the two teenage daughters was "this is what i could do if i chose to", and she carried on paying him for another four years. as advertisers go into overdrive in the ramp up to black friday, saying no to a loan is becoming increasingly hard. colletta smith, bbc news, in bradford. back now to the general election, and throughout the campaign bbc news is reporting from ten parts of the uk where seats will be closely contested. today, we're in cheltenham, which is in gloucestershire. this seat has been held by the conservatives since 2015 martine croxall is there. you line thank you, we are in the pump rooms of cheltenham, a beautiful regency building where you can take the

medicinal waters. it's a fascinating constituency. it's currently held by the conservatives, it was held by the conservatives, it was held by the lib dems until 2015. this part of the country voted to remain by 26% in the 2015 referendum and the liberal democrats are hoping to capitalise on that as fiona lamdin reports. # you see, cinderella, you don't need an indication.# it's dress rehearsal here for cheltenham's christmas panto. but this is not the only event in town. currently, the seat is held by the conservatives, but it's predicted to be one of the closest battles as the liberal democrats fight to take it back. good afternoon, everyman theatre box office. and aside from opening night here, backstage, it's all the theatre are talking about. so at home at the moment, there's a huge conversation i'm having with my partner about tactical voting. i'm just persuaded them to vote for lib dem this time because i feel a vote for another party would be a wasted vote.

there's a lot of signs up from people who are clearly supporting the lib dems. i think there's a lot of passion and a lot of feeling that it would be nice to go back to being a lib dem constituency. and last night we saw this first—hand. i'm calling for the local liberal democrats. you are, you're going to vote lib dem? to keep the tory out. right, yes, get the tories out. it was cold and wet, but the lib dem effort was out in force. i'm building during the days. so at night when i come home, it's either canvassing, folding leaflets, delivering them, just busy all of the time. and i'm not alone. you know, there's a whole crew and we're well organised. it does feel like we've got a chance. the real worry is it's going to be really tight. actually unseating an incumbent mp is no mean task. you know, we need to work our socks off to get over the line and win this seat. well, the pressure is certainly on here. cheltenham is a lib dem target seat. it's number six on their list.

a few streets away the cheltenham skittles league are in play tonight. i've always voted conservative and i've seen nothing that's going to prompt me to vote anything different this year. 57% of this town voted to remain in the eu. so will the lib dem promise to revoke article 50 persuade conservative voters? all the parties, they can't decide amongst themselves. so i don't feel strongly enough to vote lib dem only because i want to stay in europe. so i'm still going to vote for the party i normally vote for. do you you feel that they're working quite hard here in cheltenham? yeah, i can see that they're working hard over the country, i think. but they're not going to persuade you? no, not me. not me personally. with two weeks to go, the whole town is poised to see who will be left standing. fiona lamdin, bbc news. and here's a full list of the candidates standing in cheltenham. if you want to find out who's

standing in your constituency, they're all on the bbc website, that's bbc.co.uk/news, or on the bbc news app. thanks very much, martin. time for a look at the weather. here's helen willetts. hello, it's been a wet autumn. we are changing our week, our month, and changing the weather. behind me, some beautiful sunshine already across scotland. there are a few showers around and they are a bit wintry but it is, as i say, looking much drier over the next couple of days for many others, with sunshine, in the morning, but it will be the payoff of it much colder because we have arctic winds, clean air, a little ridge of high pressure pushing low pressure away to the east and just about holding this pressure of macro to the south and west. it's not dry for all.