don't know what time you're going to come to your ownjob. don't know what time you're going to come to your ownjobli don't know what time you're going to come to your own job. i have one trying to catch and then i have to wait for the next one —— one train cancelled. it will inconvenience me but we go with the flow. i'm using the app to know what is going on but getting home is what worries me. trains from southampton were mostly on time, a quiet carriage of commuters speeding through the countryside. i'm sitting on the floor, i don't have a space today. train was on time but a bit busier normal. it is no busier today but may be some people have tried with the train strikes to stay home. some stations were closed altogether whilst the sun rose, people waited in the cold for delayed and cancelled trains. i'm waiting for my train now but it is cancelled, both trains so i won't get in till nine

now. i have to wait 40 minutes, it is reason, it is —3 so not good. with 26 days to go, the public‘s response could well become a frosty as the strikes continue. this is still all about the role of guards which was not to be delivered next year. those trains are designed for the doors to be operated by the driver. the rm t insisted that the doors must be closed by the guard or the guide must inform the driver when it is safe to close the door. the company says it has to modernise outdated working practices. we are sorry that it has come to this and that the rmt have decided to take what we think is unnecessary industrial action. we are committed to retaining the guards on a train with safety skills. when a better

deal on the table and pulled it at the last minute, this is what happens. the safety critical role of the guard, id make sure no one is stuck in the doors of the train and management want to take that role away and put it on a driver who doesn't want it, the driver is busy enough. today, longer trains have been run where ever possible but earlier on we went to chandlers ford. like other smaller stations, it will see no trains until next year. volunteers were helping the few passengers that turned up anyway. i've been at the station since 6:30am giving information to passengers and a lot of people did know about it but were hoping something would run and have turned up something would run and have turned up and clearly there isn't. the booking office is closed that there are no staff here. we are now more than two years into this dispute and

nothing at all has changed. i don't think there is any passenger sympathy think there is any passenger sym pathy left think there is any passenger sympathy left for either side. they don't support a month—long strike across the christmas period and they are not impressed with the company that has failed to convince its own staff of the need to change working practices that are widely used in other parts of the railway. now on the bbc news channel, it's time for electioncast. we are in the selection because of brexit. if anyone comes up to you and says they know what's going to happen, smile politely and turn your back. evening. welcome to tonight's episode of electioncast. in a

minute, we are going to be delving into the opinion polls with professorjohn curtis. if you know it, you get it. but first, let's discuss the political followed from the terror attack on london bridge. earlier, i spoke to vicki young and deputy political editorjohn pienaar. serious voices because, obviously, we've got to talk about the continuing fallout of the attack on london bridge on friday afternoon. we now know the name of the two people that died. it's jack merritt and saskia jones. and obviously, politics over the last few days has been dominated by what happened. yesterday on the andrew marr programme, there was a very bad—tempered interview with borisjohnson. let's have a listen to this bit of it. was out because he was on automatic early release. when the judges reviewed his sentence in 2012, they had no option but to comply

with the law that labour brought in in 2008, which meant that, effectively... you say labour. you've been in power... effectively that he was out, they had to comply with the law as it stood, and he was out in eight years. and this was a guy, don't forget, thatjudge wilkie said was a very serious jihadi. and that's why... i've been in office for 120 days... your party's been in power for ten years. so obviously, that was talking about why usman khan was on the streets at all and not in prison. i listened to that interview. i was none the wiser about what happened when or why. john, just talk us through, what was your takeaway from it? well, if we take that fairly short clip, it was rich in political content. we had boris johnson, first of all, zeroing in on the fact that the terrorist, this london bridge terrorist, had been released halfway through his sentence, therefore was able to commit this crime. that was clearly the strongest piece of point making

that he had because, by definition, if usman khan had been injail and had not been released, he could not have killed these people. but it opened up a much, much wider debate about the treatment of terrorists, about rehabilitation of offenders, about the fact that boris johnson was pointing the finger at the treatment of this man under past legislation, saying that, "i have been there for 120 days," whatever it was. in that way, clear of responsibility, not answering for anything that's happened before. despite the fact that, as andrew marr pointed out, we've had a tory government for very nearly a decade. so, look. it's become intensely politicized. i think that was absolutely inevitable. you can argue it was a necessary part of the process. but, of course, borisjohnson displayed his strongest card there and opened up an exposed plank as well to do with his government, his party's record in office. it's a really difficult judgement, isn't it, for political parties when this kind of thing happens? and unfortunately, this isn't the first time it's happened.

the last election, the manchester arena bomb happened during a general election. and rememberjo cox, of course, was murdered during the referendum campaign. so, unfortunately, these kind of incidences have happened before and a political party has to make a judgement. and i think the reason borisjohnson is going really out so hard on this is partly because of what happened last time, is that theresa may ended up in this row, really, with the labour party about police numbers. and, actually, people thought she came off worse during all of that. so how hard you go out to defend your position — and borisjohnson is making the point that, actually, in the conservative manifesto — we have looked this up, it is in there — that they want to end the automatic halfway release from prison for serious crimes. so his point is, "i've always been against this particular policy." it turns out it's much more complicated than that and, actually, when you start coming through with our legal experts, our legal team in the bbc, it's incredibly complicated sentencing law which has changed over the years and, actually, both sides have things that they can point to and things that they can go on the attack over. well, the thing that jeremy corbyn pointed to — he was doing a speech in york

yesterday about foreign policy. of course, he talked about this and he used it as an opportunity to attack austerity and how the cuts to public services could have had an effect on this incident. a failure to recruit has left huge staffing shortfalls, with staff supervising more cases than ever expected, posing again a serious risk to our security. you can't keep people safe on the cheap. i suppose one of the interesting things about this as a policy area is that it's not like the nhs, where most people have had an experience with the nhs in the last few years, or a relative, so you can have a sort of personal feeling about how things are going. actually, most people won't be on probation or know someone who's on probation, or know someone who's at risk of radicalisation, do they? no. look, the probation service is not a huge emotional touchstone for the british public in the way that the national health service is. it's obviously labour's strongest card for that reason. when they talk about running down the nhs in terms of resources, a lot of people are naturally going to say, absolutely,

you're right on that. not many people feel the same way about the probation service. but it's also right and fair to say that the privatisation of the probation service and the shortage of funds in the probation service has been a live, very publicly debated issue in its own sphere for a good long time, ever since the then minister in charge, chris grayling, got stuck into all of this. it dented chris grayling. we know it rather dented the probation service. and whenjeremy corbyn attacked it in the way that he has, look, it's not opportunitism. this is his deepest, most heartfelt point about austerity, about running down the british public services, and that's where he goes as a kind of default position almost. when you see a problem — well, not of this kind, you don't get too many of these — but when you see a shortcoming of a public service coming into the spotlight, of course he is playing on all of that. and just as the whole argument over london bridge has gone on fairly predictable, predetermined lines. when it comes to labour and

liberal democrats, it's resources. for borisjohnson and the tories, it's about tougher penalties. they each have their point. they are each reaching out to an electorate, i suppose, which is more likely to see their point of view than otherwise. and i think if people are talking about this at home, i think they will be... of course, people's initial reaction is the horror of what's happened, the sympathy for the families and friends of those who have died. but, actually, a lot of people watching the tv on friday and over the weekend will be saying, "how come so many was let out who was a convicted terrorist? how did this happen? who was watching him? why weren't they watching him? how did he manage to convince the parole board that he was eligible for early release? " because they didn't have to necessarily go along with that. i think if people at home are talking about it, politicians do have to respond. and, of course, actually, for lots of people, it is distasteful but i think inevitable... and maybe it's the right thing, too. i've learned more about the sentencing system than i knew before, that's for sure. yeah. and why shouldn't we be debating it? why shouldn't our politicians at an election be debating these things? the grenfell tower disaster... look, it took longer for the political argument to engage in the case of grenfell tower than it did in this case. in this case, it took, i don't know,

a matter of minutes on a friday evening before boris johnson switched from being, i don't know, more statesman—like and taking it a detached overview to making point about sentencing and all the rest of it. in grenfell‘s case, more people died and there was arguably a need, a requirement, for more sensitivity and a little more space in the politics and the incident itself. but it got pretty political, if you recall. it got very political. well, let's just have a quick listen to thejustice secretary, robert buckland, who was on the today programme this morning. i do think we just need to pause and get the tone of this debate right. but public protection has to be at the heart of the duty of any government, and i have to put that first and foremost when considering, first of all, existing offenders and secondly the future sentencing regime for terrorism. i make no apology for that. we've got to get it right. so, yeah, that's him doing exactly what you just said. pay respects, say let's not politicize it, let's be grown—up, and then make your political point... i mean, he's got more experience in the system than we all have. he has been a barrister

and, obviously, now he isjustice secretary. one of the interesting things that someone has talked about is that, actually, the turnover, the number of secretaries of state, justice secretaries that there have been, it's one of those ministries, actually, where people have been in and out very, very quickly and there's a lot of criticism about the way that policy has been introduced. of course, what complicates this in a way when it comes to the sensitivities is those two young people who were murdered were there for a reason, because they believe in rehabilitation. that was the whole point of that meeting, why they were there, why there were ex—criminals there, why there were ex—police there, all sitting around discussing it, because of their particular view. and i think that does make it slightly more complicated, especially when you have jack merritt's father saying, "do not use this to put forward your own views when this is what he very clearly believed in. " i think that does make it even more sensitive than it would have been anyway. and there's so many layers going on here, obviously. i mean, you read the secret barrister blog — that's the lawyer who was then

sort of copy and pasted... his tweets were copy and pasted by borisjohnson as a defence of the system and an explanation. but, actually, if you read his blog, there's a bit in there where he says, well, actually, lots of the prisons can't provide the courses that the people on the sentences would go on to prove to the parole board, if they were even in front of the parole board, that they had been rehabilitated. secret barrister‘s become... we don't know who he is. it's still secret! but he's a big player in this whole political argument. for those of you who may not know, the secret barrister is the title, the name, of an author of a blog online who gives his opinions on matters of politics/law. and in this case, he piled in. he said the facts were being misrepresented by all sides. he said borisjohnson's talk really added up to very little because the manifesto — or the coming programme for government — would have done nothing to stop the attack on london bridge. he also accused the prime minister of lying after all of this, so i think these were blows that

rather struck home in 10 downing st, and it underlines the fact that, whatever this story is, whatever the background is, it is not simple. and it's fair enough to say this is a guy who should not have been on the streets. but when you get into rehabilitation, versus punishment and deterrence and all of that sort of thing, it becomes very, very, very tricky... but it does come back, i think, to resources. that is the point lots of people are making about, there's one prison, isn't there, where they work on all of this? they put in serious offenders, they're absolutely put through their paces and things. their re—conviction rate is far, farlowerthan... but it's a one—off prison. it's one prison where this is happening. and this was a case where usman khan gamed the system, from what we understand. he was writing letters saying, "i've got over this. let me out and i'll be a model citizen." for years, he presented that face to the authorities. 0ut he came, and then he committed these murders. and the question is, who was monitoring him? but, actually, when it comes to resources, i think the government's response to that is when it comes

to security services, if that is their role in this case, they have had extra funding, maybe unlike other areas of the criminaljustice system. i'm completely bamboozled by all the numbers, lots of sort of 405, 30s, low teens. just explain to us what the picture painted by the polls actually is? well, there are two things you need to know about what the polls have been doing during the course of the election campaign. the one is that they've been showing a consistent conservative lead. the second is that both the conservatives and the labour party have made progress during the course of this campaign, but not at the expense of each other but rather at the expense of the brexit party in the case of the conservatives, and the liberal democrats in the case of the labour party. and the effect of all of this is there has indeed been a bit of a narrowing of the conservative lead in the course of the last couple of weeks or so, but the conservatives still enjoy, on average, at least, the kind of poll lead that ought to generate them an overall majority.

basically, during the course of the election campaign, conservatives start this campaign with about 55% of the leave vote, with the brexit pa rt of the leave vote, with the brexit part is still holding a fair chunk of it. that figure now stands for the conservatives at 70%. it is even higher, quite considerably higher, the conservative support amongst leave mac voters two years ago and thatis leave mac voters two years ago and that is the reason why the conservatives have been able to remain ahead. 0n the other side of the fence, deliver has made progress, primarily, not entirely, amongst remain voters. when this campaign started, the labour party we re campaign started, the labour party were only just campaign started, the labour party were onlyjust a head of the liberal democrats amongst for may voters. now labour is not far short of 50% and deliver democrats are back to below a quarter —— the liberal democrats are back to blue a quarter. do understand what has been going on there, you need to understand the way in which the

election campaign in the calling of the campaign just seems to have squeezed the vote of the smaller parties but in a way that's very clearly to do with the debate about brexit. basically the conservatives, this is now the party of leave mac voters in the labour party, having lost the mantle earlier this year, has regained a lot of its position as the mental of remain voters. do you think people are getting too excited about this now? maybe overestimating the two horse race? yes and no. i think that exaggerating it in the sense that we are still in a position, at least on the average of the polls, whereby the average of the polls, whereby the conservatives should get around 350 seats or so and borisjohnson should be able to deliver brexit as he is minded to do. and equally also, there is not much sign of a labour party being able to do damage to the conservatives. the labour party are losing just as much of the

vote to the conservatives now as they were four weeks ago. to that extent at least, yes, there is a risk of exaggeration and certainly underestimating the way in which the conservatives really have managed to maintain their lead. that said, we do have to bear in mind that given probably boris johnson do have to bear in mind that given probably borisjohnson needs a bit more than a six point lead before we say, yeah, he is all clearly home and dry, if the lead is indeed around ten points, he is not so far ahead of where he needs to be to get ahead of where he needs to be to get a majority for us to be sure that he's got it in the back. and again we dojust he's got it in the back. and again we do just have to remember that this is essentially a winery election in which either boris johnson gets a majority, in which case brexit should happen, or he fails to get a majority and then there's a high probability that we will get a minority labour

administration in charge. it's whether or not the conservatives get a majority or not that matters, not whether they have more seeds than labour. the other thing we do have to bear in mind is that the conservatives do now seem to have pretty much taken all the juice out of the brexit orange. there is only around six or 7% of the leave vote left in the brexit party. there were still about 20% of the remain vote in the hands of the liberal democrats. given the liver party has so far to mistreated a nontrivial degree of success in squeezing that vote, maybe they could squeeze it further. the potentialfor labour to continue to make the progress it has been making in this campaign, at the expense of the liberal democrats committee position for doing more is they are arithmetically still there.

the conservatives have pretty much reached the high watermark of what they can so far. the leave orange has been squeeze. it is just skin now. i am trying to think of an equally sized fruit that has a bit ofjuice equally sized fruit that has a bit of juice less equally sized fruit that has a bit ofjuice less dominic left. maybe another orange —— a bit ofjuice left. is there anything we're missing? i think no. this election may not prove to be as couple gated as we were thinking. —— as complicated. certainly, there is... it is very difficult to work out for more than repulse what is the impact of geographical performance. the conservative vote is so much more of the leave vote that it was two years ago. equally, the liberal democrats

vote is much more of a euro file vote is much more of a euro file vote tha n vote is much more of a euro file vote than two years ago. lo and behold, a yougov poll came out a few days ago. this was essentially a way of analysing data to get results for individual constituencies. two years ago, using that approach, they told us, we think there might be a hung parliament, when all the conventional pulling or nearly all the conventional pulling was staying there would be a conservative majority. there was no surprise this time. their estimate of 359 seats and 11 point conservative lead was pretty much bang on in both cases. what you'd expect given the state of the conventional polls when that polling was done. the crucial point about that is that although indeed, as we suspected, this polling indicates that the conservative vote is likely to go up more and places

which voted heavily to remain and therefore probably rather less amongst those places devoted remain, it looks as though the net effect of this geographical variation may be approximate lead zero. and therefore the geographical competition of this election about which there is been a lot of fretting might come in the end, may not be proving to be so dramatic as it was thought. that is one thing we thought maybe was not clear. you put that in quite technical terms. and ijust wonder if actually that means some people wa ke if actually that means some people wake up the morning after the election and be quite surprised at how things have turned out but you've done it in a very sort of technical way there, rather than a dramatic way. i can see why yougov go for mrp rather than... such a mouthful! welcome to statistics. if you take a simple two points,

conventional polls, average lead, 11 points. yougov come mrp come estimate leave —— yougov, mrp, estimated conservative majority. the number of seats the conservatives are expected to get according to the yougov mrp model, 359. take a classic standard way of estimating the seeds from polls, assume that the seeds from polls, assume that the ups and downs of part performance are going to be exactly the same everywhere, what you get? about 354-355 the same everywhere, what you get? about 354—355 seats. in other words, the mrp model, rather than coming up with something new, is essentially saying it's the same as what the polls have said for the last three orfour polls have said for the last three or four weeks. you're probably sick of being asked this question and answering it, but how does the exit poll actually work and how come it is so accurate? i can tell you how it works. and whether or not it is

going to be this time, we want to wait and see. of course. the difficulty of doing an exit poll in the uk is that we don't count the votes by polling station. and therefore as a result, we cannot be sure that any particular set of polling stations is representative of the country as a whole. he might therefore ask, how therefore do we attempt to resolve this problem? the a nswer attempt to resolve this problem? the answer is, while the level of support for a little party varies very dramatically from one part of the country to another, the change in support for the parties doesn't very anything like so much. pretty much any set of polling stations has a much better chance of estimating the change in vote share than it does the level of vote share. with that, therefore, will we try to do with the exit poll, rather than try to use simply points, to estimate the level of support, we try to

estimate the change. how do we do that? basically, it is not one exit poll, it is two because what we do is we compare the exit poll results this year with the exit poll results last time, on the basis that it put a much every case, wherever possible, we are going and conducting the exit bullet exactly the same place as we did two years ago. —— conducting the exit poll. in each polling station, we have an estimate of the extent to which a pa rty‘s foot has estimate of the extent to which a party's foot has gone up or gone down, and we get about 140 estimates of these. we know what constituencies these polling stations are in. we know a lot about the constituencies. we know where they are. we can then take those estimates and do a bit more statistical modelling, not that different from mrp come and say, ok, what systematic paths to be? what

sort of constituencies are labour votes going down in some constituencies than others? from which, you get an equation, which estimates whether how much we expect the party's for to go up or down. once you've got an estimate of how much a party positive vote is exhibited go up or down, it's not very difficult to then estimate what the level of support would be because you just add or subtract the estimate of change to what happened last time in the constituency, so that then gives you for every constituency in estimate of what the outcome is going to be. the trick is, taking the exit poll results this time, comparing it with last time and focusing on change rather than on level. that is that statistical trick in which we engage. in terms of the exit poll during the day, i am imagine you within sort of war zone, war room? we have a range of laptops taking

the data i'm ingesting the data, getting it into the former need to analyse it and running some fairly complex statistical models in order to investigate what is on. but, yes, to investigate what is on. but, yes, to facilitate thought, even creativity, you have a whiteboard in which there might action be a few guesses as to where we might be at given the data so far. and you know the cliche there is about the exit poll. everyone says, i've never been asked to contribute to the exit poll. what is the statistical probability of a person being asked in the exit poll? extraordinary low. the exit poll is done in just over 140, so the odds are, if the exit poll was not happening in your polling station two years ago, it probably is not having this time either. it is all very much based on

what is... we interviewed thousands of thousands of people in those polling stations but, actually, all we really get out of this poll is 140 estimates. professorjohn curtice will be unveiling his election exit poll on the election night programme in... sooner if you're watching this programme. that is all for electioncast today. you can get the best from bbc sounds. it is free and super easy to use and there is lots of great content on there and we will be back here on your tvs at exactly the same time tomorrow. and i promise this week, we will do a round up what has been happening in northern ireland loads of people have been asking for it. night night. hello there. some fog issues to

contend with for the next couple of mornings, particularly across more southern parts of the country. closer to the area of high pressure for but many areas will tend to stay dry. we start to see a change to the weather towards the end of the week, something more unsettled, but also milder. it is still cold across the southern half of the country as we had through tonight thanks to this area of high pressure. clear skies, fog is going to form, particular in southern and southeastern part of england. more of a breeze, more cloud across scotland and northern ireland. not quite as cold here as it's going to be further south. fog, some of that freezing fog, likely to affect southern and southeastern england. could see some issues to roads and also airports. that fog could be stubborn to clear, lifting into low cloud, but a lot of dry weather around. sunny spells, too. thicker cloud for the far northwest, where it will be breezy or, virtually elsewhere. —— but chilly

elsewhere. hello, i'm ros atkins, this is outside source. experts warn the point of no return on climate change is hurtling towards us as political leaders gather at a summit to tackle the biggest issue of our times do we really want to be remembered as the generation that buried its hand in the sand, that fiddled whilst the planet burnt. in england, vigils are held for those killed and injured in friday's attack at london bridge as new accounts emerge of the heroism of the bystanders, who brought down the attacker. it felt like a war zone. it felt like total chaos but these guys step

up like total chaos but these guys step up in the moment and did what