hello again. it's a windy start to the new week. the strongest winds focused by storm aliyah in the west of england and the south—west of wales. we have had gusts already of 70 miles an hour. some big waves, this is bbc news, the headlines: though it does turn dry here by the the us defence secretary has ordered this is bbc news. a review of screening procedures end of the night. pretty windy welcome if you're for all foreign personnel watching here in the uk training at bases in america elsewhere, drawing down some slightly cold air as the wind turns or around the globe. after a saudi officer shot three i'm maryam moshiri. more northerly. a windy day on our top stories: sailors in florida on friday. the fbi is treating the attack as an act of terrorism. monday. the strongest of the winds transferring to these north sea police in delhi have arrested coast, where we will see quite a few the owner and manager of a factory showers in the morning. a few calls for new security measures which caught fire on saturday night. showers in the morning. a few in the wake of a deadly shooting at least 43 people were showers out most of the rsc. killed in the blaze. at a us navy base in florida. firefighters say the building generally the showers fading away. had no safety equipment and no safety certificates. it will not be as windy by the police in india arrest the owner afternoon but it will probably feel and manager of a factory where over 40 people died in a fire. afternoon but it will probably feel a bit colder than it did on sunday. russian athletes face sweeping sanctions for another doping—linked a chilly evening in eastern parts of scandal — officials in moscow refuse the uk and then it gets wet and windy again later in the night in to say who's to blame for it. time for tuesday. bands of rain, experts say there is of level four especially heavy rain, coming into western areas later in the day. here firefighters in australia race to contain more than 140 bushfires they will be squally winds around as ahead of a heatwave expected soon. in new zealand. well. another windy day, but a mild and we visit ethiopia for a lesson in what can be done day, temperatures and doublethink now on bbc news, dateline london. is. 00:01:03,422 --> 4294966103:13:29,430 —— in double figures.

hello, and welcome to dateline london. i'm carrie gracie. this week... something we didn't expect — president trump defending nato against attack from a european leader. something we did expect — a teenager shaking up a global climate change conference. and something where no side dares trust its expectations — a british election. my guests this week are abdel bari atwan, an analyst on arab affairs, portuguese writer eunice goes, henry chu, international editor of variety, and marc roche of french news weekly le point. welcome to you all. now, is it too easy to knock nato?

at a fractious summit to mark the alliance‘s 70th birthday, the french president stood by his assessment that it was brain dead, the american president said such comments were disrespectful, the turkish president retorted that it was the french president who was brain dead and the canadian prime minister got caught on camera gossiping about the american president, who then said the canadian was two—faced. but nato's secretary generaljens stoltenberg shrugged all this off as surface stuff and insisted the substance of the alliance was strong at 70. on the evidence of last week's summit, is it? marc, you start us off, you were there. yes, and it was quite messy, but on the whole they managed, like they do at these meetings, a declaration saying nothing. i think macron is right.

even if it was rather a wake—up call, because europe is rather russia, for america is china, for france it is what is going on in africa, and terrorism and cyber terrorism, so they have to adapt to the trend, and they haven't done it. —— adapt to the threat. with brexit, there will be european defence damage. brexit is coming, and europe will organise itself in defence because we can't rely on america. and then there will be franco british entente in defence, because those are the only really armies on the continent really. it is an organisation which is not fit for purpose. i would not necessarily agree that nato is dead. i would agree that spending by various nato countries is going up.

we have been hearing, since the fall of the soviet union, that nato was no longer necessary, or doesn't have an identity any longer. and certainly there has been soul—searching about what is the threat and where does it go through now. saying it is dead is a step too far. i suppose it is a matter of expectations. at least in this meeting, trump did not upend of events by calling them obsolete? in the one hand he said it was obsolete, and now he is defending nato. i think it does need to figure out what its purposes is and where the threats lie. one thing it did not address is climate change, and that is a national security threat around the world. i think nato still has some resilience left. years ago when it was debating what to do in libya, people were talking about the fact that it was squabbling and does it have a future, and here we are eight years later. i think that soul—searching

will continue to go on. they are embarking on a process of trying to find themselves, but whether we can call them dead, i think there is still life in them yet. eunice, what about macron‘s bid to say that europe needs to step up. i think he is right, because in 70 years the threats of the north atlantic have changed. the soviet union is no longer there. but the united states also seems to have now, very different strategic goals, the geo—political challenges are very different, and it also does not seem to be extremely interested in the security of europe. so, i think what macron said, perhaps, it was not the most diplomatic language, but occasionally leaders need to use forceful language to shake up an institution that needs to think about its future. not only do debates get stuck upon funding. far more important, nato, if it wants to endure as an institution, needs to think about what its mission is going to be.

what are its threats, what are the security threats it faces? looking at the security of europe, a lot of the threats it faces are internal. we are talking about leaders in governments that are undermining democracy. we have to think of our relationship with turkey, and the rivalries amongst allies. let's take a look at what happened in syria in the last six months. the united states was at odds with turkey and syria. this was not supposed to happen amongst nato allies. a big thing needs to take place. —— a big think up. a think up that they did promise, because they said they were going to have a forward—looking reflection process. i believe nato is passing through a phase of dismantlement. that's how i see it.

nato was actually tested twice and syria comment now we have two policies. also, a deal which again exposed the weakness and division among nato, and now we have another purpose which is coming in the gulf. an influence there, we have two axes, and both of them are actually part of nato. the european axis, the european alliance is taking care of the so—called naval routes in the gulf, and then we have an american coalition which is completely different. so, how can we have two alliances on the golf to face that influence, and both of them from nato and no correlation between the two sides. i believe nato is dying. germany and france would like to have their own security system away from nato, and trump said you should increase your payment to nato.

you should also increase your participation in that. raise it to 2% of your national income. i believe it is a huge mess. right back we are going to have to leave that topic, or most parts of it, i hope there'll nato leaders are watching because that is a very long to do list in their forward thinking and reflection process. on that note, we will have to leave most parts of it. i hope all of those nato leaders are watching because that was a very long to do list for their forwardthinking process. one of the things that henryjust mentioned was climate. let's turn to that now. "the point of no return is in sight and hurtling towards us." the warning from un secretary general antonio guterres as he attempted to concentrate government minds at the madrid climate change conference. outside the chamber, teenage climate activist greta thunberg was equally grim, telling a protest march of young activists, "we have achieved nothing."

so will madrid now produce the concrete action they are demanding? barry, why don't you start us off? unfortunately, it is a very serious problem, and the attention from the very big players is very limited, so i am not very optimistic here. because we are waiting for a huge disaster to take place, and then the international community will start crying. like 1974, for example, when the prices of oil jumped like 1974, for example, when the prices of oiljumped by 200%. we are waiting for a disaster to take place, so after that they will pay attention. now, the young people are raising the flag. those young people are very aware of what is happening, and i believe that if the sea levels

rise by 1.5 metres, most of the american western islands will disappear. are we waiting for a disaster to take place? i would say to take it even further than you, some of the leaders are not paying attention, some are positively destructive. we have a climate denier in the white house. in brazil, there is a president that also denies that climate change is happening, and allows deforestation to the amazon. china, has a mixed, but somewhat positive attitude towards combating climate change. once, they start to slow down which we have seen in the last couple of years, coal—fired plants are back on the agenda, so without actual enforcement mechanisms, which this conference will not produce, there is not going to be the change we need to seek to avoid

catastrophes that are in in weight. —— catastrophes that await. in paris, when the last pledges were made, that was on the back of a deal made between the us and china. that's right. that is what we are seeing, the fruit of that, unfortunately. eunice, you are portuguese and so is the secretary general. he is using the strong language to get things moving. does he have the political leverage as an individual or a politician? i think he has the moral leverage, because as the secretary general of the un he represents the conscience world. to you —— the words that he used could be very strong. is it going to be effective, ——?. this conference is a talking shop. nothing is going to be agreed. i am trying to see the silver lining up all of this. i think that in the last year, the last 18 months, we have

seen a change in the way the issue is perceived. the issue has been now agenda set. the eyes of the world are now on leaders to commit themselves to actual policies that will result in a reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. i believe the younger generations, wait for nothing less. this is going to take some time, and the question is, will it be enough? mark, as greta thunberg herself has said, in madrid we have achieved nothing. she and other young climate activists have achieved a raising in consciousness, but in terms of an actual remodelling of how the economy works, we await. when it comes to the crunch, it is employment that leaders will be elected on. they will put employment and economic growth above anything,

and that means that climate change is not in practice the top issue. this being said, the good news is that the young people are aware of it, and they are at the forefront of it, and also that the green movement is coming back. at the european election they did very well, and they are coming, now, almost to government in the lower countries and germany. so, there is positive aspects. europe is not on target to meet its 2030 targets. the other issue linked with climate change, like migration, unemployment, populism. in practice, climate

change is not important. we need to bring in, and start electing political leaders and voices that do not see tackling climate change as the an obstacle to economic growth, an obstacle to the creation ofjobs, and so on. tackling climate change can also create lots of very good opportunities for sustainable development. it can create different types ofjobs as well. you hear the different types of conversations taking place between green economies, but this is happening at the margins. we are stuck in a very old—fashioned mindset. why don't we have a global leader that can articulate this narrative about a green agenda that is good for us? pope francis coming out the way he did to make a statement about it. individual governments to act

is where the difficulty lies. particularly, the two biggest polluters, the us and china. i've been trying to rack my brain and think of any other issue in my lifetime which is of longest consequence and plays out over six a long period, but is held hostage to the short term politics, and the unavoidable outcome of our political systems. i would like to say the greatest example is the renewable energy in the us. the effort that people put in to get re—elected in congress. to get re—elected, they promise short—term gains, and this is a long—term issue. one of the things pope francis has said, his is a moral agenda rather than an economic, but he has said that we cannot put the burden of the problems of this generation on the next generation, but who is listening? the positive side here, who are taking care of this problem for the next generation

is the younger generation. if you look at the demonstration in madrid, most of them are the young people. the leader of this protest now — young people. this is a positive sign. this generation of leadership i believe won't do anything. but they have to vote, middle—aged people... we are talking about climate change. let me give you a practical example. ok, we have rains in the arabian peninsula, now we have flooding. dubai, used to have 20 and 30 years without any rains, and now we have flooding in dubai. the other thing is, we are waiting for a white christmas here. it could be ended by a white christmas, because last year it was snowing there. so snow on the arabian peninsula is a very serious problem.

we have to look at it and try to find solutions for the next generation, because it is too... it is unfair to export this disaster to them. while we might be optimistic about the next generation, saying they are politically engaged about climate change, they are not the ones in power. by the time they rise to power, this generation's leaders if they remain unchecked... we will wait to see if madrid reduces anything more hopeful than the general mood around this table on immediate short—term gains in this department. on the point about young people under voting, that is what we are coming to next. this coming friday, a friday the 13th for those who are superstitious, british voters will wake to discover which of two unpopular leaders they have put in charge of a bitterly divided country. will it be borisjohnson with his vow to get brexit done,

orjeremy corbyn under the banner "for the many, not the few"? the conservatives are consistently ahead in the polls, but the electoral map is hard to read and many hearts and minds are not yet won. eunice, you studied politics and kept a very close eye on the ground in this election. what's your assessment now? well, no—one is in a place to make a prediction. what we can say is that the conservatives have kept a very big advantage, consistently throughout the campaign. labour has narrowed, in a very small way, that gap. if the opinion polls continue until thursday, on friday the 13th, it's very likely that we will wake up with a conservative government. there have been interesting polls that look at what is happening in constituencies.

so, it is a much more granular analysis of electoral behaviour. what we can say for sure is that voters are utterly fed up, not only with leaders, but with politics. this is the third election in four years. that is a lot of elections, and a lot of problems. brexit has dominated in the united kingdom and there are a lot of problems. at this point in the year people are gloomy, and the weather is gloomy. there is not a lot of optimism out there. when voters are angry, well, they can behave somewhat unexpectedly. who has made tactical gains and tactical mistakes? i think i followed it only

from the brexit point of view. on brexit, the only plan, like it or not, isjohnson's, which was negotiated with the eu. if he wins, which the polls seem to show, they will be out on the 31st ofjanuary, and then a mess. because we don't know how they will negotiate a trade agreement until the end of the year knowing that canada took seven years. more complicated for britain, because of financial services. you have to have the parliament all over europe agreed. they might be, in case johnson wins with the majority, there might be a framework of a deal. this said, labour has not started in brussels because they don't want to reopen the investigation. —— negotiation.

in general the public, i think, does not want a second referendum. in brexit, it is zero points all. i don't think there have been any crushing blows dealt by either side. they are both playing it safe. i thinkjeremy corbyn, who likes to point at polls a couple of years ago when it seemed he was going to be completely buried and then came in better than expected, he no longer has the novelt factor he did. people who have already decided he is not trustworthy are going to remain in that camp. those behind him will stay behind him. we have learnt now not to trust the polls, and that has been true in the last few years. on every occasion, it is hard for me to remember a poll that has accurately predicted something in my country, certainly, and here.

so i think things are still up for grabs. we might wake up on friday the 13th with a very different configuration, from what we're talking about right now, which seems to be the likelihood. do you think that labour's position has made it difficult to attack the point that mark is making about the long—term negotiations to follow in any deal? to be honest, the ambiguity of the labour party makes many people suspecting that there won't be an improvement, there aren't any clear—cut policies here. watching the two debates, i believe that we should not underestimate jeremy corbyn. i believe that his agenda is really based on a lot of local issues, education and public services. the second thing which i believe is extremely important here, we have to remember hillary clinton when she used to be ahead, 80% ahead of donald trump, and the last few days,

what happened? we were shocked to wake up and find trump as president. i wouldn't be surprised if we wake up on the 13th of this month, friday the 13th, with a huge shock. i don't know, but we shouldn't underestimate what is happening. i predict live liberal democrat and labour coalition coming. i remember that time when they used to be part of a sort of coalition. you say tory majority, you say a labour and liberal democrat coalition. i would say a conservative majority, a small one. the labour programme's overspending

has not calculated the prospect of new taxes that might put people off a party that advocate that. you talk about the economy, and i think a lot of people do vote on those issues, but i have read the various amounts of coverage in the media about the election going more granular in terms of looking at constituencies, it is remarkable how much brexit is indeed on voters minds. whether it's being fed up it hasn't happened because you're a leave voter and want parliament to get on with it, and that's making problems for labour and its usual problems in the north, or on the conservative side... and it is a generational thing too,

because the younger people look at brexit, but they are also worried about austerity, and the fact they are unable to get on the housing ladder... the fact they are leaving university thousands of pounds in debt. we are going to find here, also, this big generational divide, with the older voters facing very different types of problems, and younger voters... we haven't talked much yet about the lib dems. there has been a lot of discussion about mistakes or otherwise that they have made during the course of their campaign. does anybody have a few? they are undemocratic, saying they need a second referendum... i believe people are sick of brexit. as henry said, they will vote according to brexit. i believe, now, they need to solve that problem forever.

boris johnson doesn't plan will decide it forever. will need another referendum, but because if we don't have another referendum to solve this problem forever, i think this country will be... dismantled. i think people will look at this, try to make up their mind, and personally i think they should stay in the eu. we have only got one moment left, but eunice has talked about voters being tired. we have had considerable promises on all sides in terms of spending. whose promises do people believe in terms of trusting them? i'm not sure the voters have much trust in anyone, because all the promises have been broken up until now. i think voters will go with the party that they think have the best chances to get

something done, but i don't think any voter thinks that any agenda will be fully at acted. we have got to leave it. thanks for being with us. that's it for dateline london for this week. we're back next week at the same time. goodbye.