hello and welcome to dateline london. i'm carrie gracie. this week... let the healing begin — so said borisjohnson on friday, as he celebrated the scale of his emphatic electoral victory. but the other big winner was scotland's first minister, and healing is not the first thing on her mind. today, we devote the entire programme to the immediate and longer term implications of the uk's election outcome. my guests are janet daley, columnist for the sunday telegraph, political commentator steve richards, maria margaronis of us news weekly, and the nation author and veteran correspondent thomas kielinger.

welcome to you all. so i said it was an emphatic outcome. you start it off, what you expect to be done with it. we will get out of the eu, that's the start, which the country decided it wanted three and a half yea rs decided it wanted three and a half years ago, which seems an eternity ago, and the end of that paralysis will, at least for the moment, produce a kind of euphoria. it has already produced a kind of euphoria. if he is the politician i think he is, he will develop that. the conciliation he expressed in that opening speech, which was very well done, politically, a very clever move, is possible when you have a large majority, because there is not going to be the rancour and acrimony within his own parliamentary party, because he has got such a commanding majority, so he is going to be able to accomplish what he said he would accomplish, in terms of official

removal of our sort of trade relations, the renegotiation of our trade relations and so on, without having to worry about his own party collapsing under him or disappearing under him. he will have a much less truculent parliament, because the opposition is in disarray, and there will be no excuse, in a sense, for him not accomplishing what he says he will accomplish. if he doesn't accomplish it, that is because that can be blamed on obstacles that are placed by the eu, rather than his own parliament. steve, this idea of levelling up, one—nation conservative johnson, levelling up, one—nation conservativejohnson, conciliation and restoring trust, what is the other part of his agenda that he now has the freedom of a large majority to accomplish? freedom to accomplish assumes that he, because of the freedom, will accomplish it. it is difficult. there is no doubt at all that the cameron osborne period of turbo—charged thatcherism, in terms

of economic policy, that was a curious period. they proclaimed they we re curious period. they proclaimed they were centrists and modernisers and the rest of it, but they were inducing deep real terms spending cuts. to overturn that, by definition, means the real turn spending increases, so where will the money come from? they have pledged not to put up taxes, so it will be dependent on economic, but economic is going to be —— economic growth will be sluggish because of brexit. we will not have any money to bet. so you can be tonally warm, and he has been tonally emollient, as you are when you have won big victories, but the challenges of delivering for some of those who have voted conservative this time are immense, unless you break with all the economic orthodoxy is associated with the thatcherite and osborne cameron era. let's see if he

does that. janet says euphoria, steve is more cautious. where do you sit with regard to this agenda was to mock neither the one nor the other. i'm not euphoric or defeatist. i think there is hope to be seen, and great expectations, and boris, knowing the man who wants to not just win elections boris, knowing the man who wants to notjust win elections but proved himself capable of governing, will do his utmost to do that. steve is right when he says, where does the money come from? a lot of his ability to fulfil the hopes of northern voters who came into his camp has to do with the fact that brexit is uncertainty, and that is where europe comes in, it has to do its best to continue a workable relation with great britain so as not to lose it a second time. you can't afford to lose britain again by being stubborn and hard—nosed what have you. will come to brexit

but, on an economic point that steve was racing, there is another problem, which is that european growth is absent. it would be more absent by the lack of £11 billion that britain used to spend into the common coffer, but this is all speculation. the world is changing everyday, every month and so forth, so everyday, every month and so forth, so europeans will have to get their act together and quite sure that they combine their own crises, lack of growth, lack of expansion, with not wanting to lose britain a second time, to create and craft a relationship which works for the benefit of both sides. it's difficult to predict how it will look, but they are not going to be able to be stubborn and refuse compromise. so the times are great on both sides, with the emollients of boris, mrjohnson, and europe, to come together and work for a common, positive outcome. we were looking at the domestic agenda, and some are

criticising, saying there is ideological incoherence between his talk of levelling up people without jobs, infrastructure and the rest of it, and on the other hand the free market globalisation agenda. completely, and frankly i am depressed. worst of all, i think having a large majority without an adequate opposition is bad for democracy and, secondly, i don't trust boris johnson democracy and, secondly, i don't trust borisjohnson and the people he has surrounded himself by in the election campaign. i think the election campaign. i think the election was won on the recut of clever slogans and a lot of falsehoods, for example, about the number of hospitals that will be funded and so on, and i agree with steve that he will have difficulties in putting through his agenda, and how he's going to keep together... of our main parties have been coalitions for a very long time, and the tory coalition, just as much as the tory coalition, just as much as the labour party is, how is he going to keep together the victory fund is, the metropolitan financiers and so is, the metropolitan financiers and so on, with these new conservative voters in the north, and the new mps

from the north are an interesting bunch. can i say, i don't think anybody in the country voted on the basis of how many new hospitals were promised by the tories. if they had done that, they would have voted for labour, who were promising much bigger spending, completely unfunded. this was the second referendum. they voted for relief from this horrendous paralysis, which i cannot remember in the 50 years i've lived in this country ever seen before, where there seems to bea ever seen before, where there seems to be a parliament determined to obstruct what had been the referendum result that they all swore they would abide by. that was the most extraordinary sin against democracy. but here is the thing. because of that paralysis, all we have focused on in the uk is that parliamentary battle, and with the almost sort of unwritten implication

that, if the parliamentary battle could be resolved, there would be this great liberating moment. let's come to that. but the biggest obstacle come to that. but the biggest o bsta cle has come to that. but the biggest obstacle has been getting brexit donein obstacle has been getting brexit done in practice. trade agreements, as you know, are really complex. steve, answer the question you have posed yourself. is this going to happen in the course of 2020, as promised? he has got a big call to make. it could happen in one situation, which is if he decides to go for very close alignment with the eu, so, by definition, the negotiation becomes much simpler, because you are not extracting yourself from everything with what is called maximum diversions from the eu. that kind of prospect would ta ke yea rs. the eu. that kind of prospect would take years. but, if he does the other way, i think there will be people in his party saying, hold on a second, this is soft brexit, that's it, and they may moan. and

there will be problems, because the purists are still there. he has the freedom to make that decision with the big majority, but it's to be difficult. going back to the point about europe, and you described it as the obstinacy, i would say the arrogance of europe. if the eu negotiators had not behaved in the way they do, it's very possible that we would be in a very different place. but the point is that everybody has to do business, and europe's rate of growth is below the uk, the uk has had better growth, even during this horrendous period of paralysis. germany's growth rate is 0.5% and ours is 1.5. in order to salvage the eurozone and the european economy, the europeans will have to meet our negotiations halfway. in order to for boris to make the most of his victory, the europeans play an important part and make it possible that, within a

year, some semblance of a workable trading relation will emerge. do you think they are released in europe that there was a clear outcome? absolutely, so i don't share the depression here because, when you think of the horrendous stalemate we have suffered for three years, the emergence of a big government majority come it is not so much a feeling of democracy and democratic relations breaking down, it's a relief, to be able to work again for the future and try your best. of the was horrendous for business, and i said this in the past. —— of uncertainty was horrendous for business. the vast obstacle put before parliament to that withdrawal agreement that boris came back with, the heartbreaking e—mails i got on the heartbreaking e—mails i got on the newspaper from readers the heartbreaking e—mails i got on the newspaperfrom readers who run small businesses the

parliamentary uncertainty is over. businesses, as we sit here, do not know what is going to happen with their supply chains, they do not know the relationship in terms of the single market and so on. you said it is very difficult here but, going back to visit the difficulty that steve posed for borisjohnson, is he going to a soft brexit and alienate or offend some of the hardliners in his business back on community for his party?|j hardliners in his business back on community for his party? i suspect he will have to do a softer brexit. he isn't beholden to the erg in the way he was and, if he is going to dismantle with his new tory mps of the north, in his trip to the north today and the speech he did yesterday are anything more than window dressing, he will have to, because northern towns like stoke—on—trent, all the other towns, the so—called red wall, that voted tory, they are expecting something back, and they voted as they did because they feel they have been neglected for decades and they will

expect an economy that functions, which means good trade agreements with europe and elsewhere which are going to enable them to revive. are you expecting a close alignment with europe? what is close? one of the reasons we don't have to think of a nine—year negotiation of a trade agreement, as canada did with the eu, is that we start in the same place. at the moment, our regulations are identical with europe, so it is a question of how far removed from that. so how far do we move? however far he moves, i can tell you he will be able to sell it. that's the thing. he is probably the best person for that, to be able to persuade the party and the country that he has done something that is called a real exit from the european union. he is open to a new kind of european approach, witness the day of the referendum, when he had a column ready to argue for the

benefits of staying in europe. are you saying that as a positive? benefits of staying in europe. are you saying that as a positive ?m benefits of staying in europe. are you saying that as a positive? it is a positive. you have both sides of the argument and you decide which one you are persuaded by but those of us who work for a living can understand the possibilities of persuasion. we are not reiterating 2016 here step it is a character issue. it's a huge decision, and these terms are bounded around without clarity, soft brexit, what does that mean, but at the moment, he is committed to divergences on a big scale, again imprecise. if he sticks with that, a big if, but if he does, this negotiation will take yea rs, he does, this negotiation will take years, and he has to decide injuly whether or not to ask for an extension. the talks will not begin until march so, within two or three months of the talks starting, he has

the biggest call of his premiership. iam not the biggest call of his premiership. i am not hearing from any of you a reason why he should not have more freedom of movement to do the thing which appeals to some of his new voters, which appeals to the europeans... you are hearing that. he has to be true to the programme on which he was elected, which is a genuine brexit and, if he comes through with a phony brexit, all of us through with a phony brexit, all of us in the press will expose that very quickly and he will be discredited. phony brexit can be made to mean a more amenable solution to the help of those people in the north. there is a lot of freedom. freedom for manoeuvre is his biggest trump card. hold on, what people say in an election and in a manifesto, even borisjohnson, it matters subsequently. tony blair won a majority of 180 then he wanted to go

into the euro in various points of his leadership but he couldn't do it because of what he had pledged in an election, he would have to hold a referendum first and he knew he would lose it. you can have a majority of 500 but what you say doesn't matter. he has said certain things that might define trade negotiations in a way that europe has to decide what it wants to do but so does he and the british government. in reality he will have to compromise. never mind what he said in his manifesto. president macron has warned that regulatory harmonisation as they put it will be necessary for access. they don't even have regulatory harmonisation between the two of them. so we don't need to take seriously what they say about that. ? they are going to have to do business. particularly the europeans are desperately in need of business, our business, they are not

going to be in a position to be bloody—minded. going to be in a position to be bloody-minded. both sides will come together. i completely agree there are differences between france and germany but they will come together as they did with the withdrawal agreement and come up with a set of terms that they will stick to. they will stick to a line, i'm sure of it. we don't even know who is going to request it. let's leave that and turn to another huge issue for boris johnson domestically, leaving one union and binding another. maria, ta ke union and binding another. maria, take us away on this question of how on earth he deals with the problem of scotla nd on earth he deals with the problem of scotland voting snp, new scottish parliamentary election coming up in 2021. the pressure he is going to be under. i think it will be very difficult. these ha rd—line state m e nts difficult. these ha rd—line statements coming out from sajid javid saying there is not going to bea javid saying there is not going to be a scottish referendum are premature. i think the political

pressure from scotland's especially after 2021 where i think the snp will sweep the board in scotland, will sweep the board in scotland, will be very great. there is also theissue will be very great. there is also the issue of ireland. northern ireland now has a minority unionist and is looking much more like a possibility of a unification of ireland eventually down the road. we still have under the withdrawal agreement aboard in the irish sea which was going to be a problem. i think it will have a problem with scotla nd think it will have a problem with scotland and with northern ireland. bearin scotland and with northern ireland. bear in mind that one of his strongest cards he played against corbyn is that you are going to have two referendums in the next year, the scottish referendum which will disrupt the united kingdom and another referendum on europe. for him to give in and allow scottish referendum now would be a serious blow against his own argument againstjeremy corbyn. blow against his own argument against jeremy corbyn. but is there against jeremy corbyn. but is there a problem with the consent of the

scots ? a problem with the consent of the scots? not in parliamentary terms, no, because he has a huge majority. his majority is in england. it's in westminster. it is in the westminster. it is in the westminster parliament. whatever he decides he can do. there would be a political price to pay but if he decides that he wanted to be absolutely ruthless, given the snp have now swept the board and there are so have now swept the board and there are so few tories, i think one tory mp left in scotland. he can afford tojust do what mp left in scotland. he can afford to just do what he wants. that would be politically unwise in the long term but for the next year i think he has to keep to that promise that you will not be stuck with another referendum, meaning britain. is there something he can do to charm there something he can do to charm the scots at this point? no. scotla nd the scots at this point? no. scotland is moving away from england and wales or to put it a different way, england and wales over the last nine years has moved away from scotland. they are in many ways,

certainly politically, they asked and recognisably different. england is pursuing this brexit with a big tory majority. scotland voted snp overwhelmingly. that's dynamic... and remain. ithink overwhelmingly. that's dynamic... and remain. i think at some points, if the snp sweep the board again, people in england keep predicting that the snp's moment has passed and they do well again. i think they will do well again at the scottish parliamentary elections. there comes a point where you have to concede a referendum and i think you will have no choice but to do so at some point. but not in 2020? not in 2020 but sometime in the period of this westminster parliament. what about the irish point that maria raised? you have under the existing terms of the withdrawal agreement how we have seen the withdrawal agreement how we have seen it a semi border in the irish sea. some say that drift towards the

island of ireland reuniting will meana island of ireland reuniting will mean a constitutional political drift. the people who were pro—remain and were very relaxed about improved relations and economic and otherwise with the southern part of ireland. and the outliers of the dup and so forth, was shown to have been on a sticky wicket. they lost in this election. there is a tendency in all of ireland to do the logical thing, improve frictionless trade and eventually even reunite constitutionally. that is? for the union of the kingdom. there was a polar couple of months ago where english tory voters were asked would you stand in favour of leaving the eu even if it means a threat to the united kingdom and they said yes. to me that was astonishing. they play loose and fast of the possibility of breaking up the union. that is

because they were so desperate for brexit. so what do we do with this slogan let the healing begin? how can we begin the healing? this is still the united kingdom. but the bitterness that exists in parts of england is different from the kind of healing in other places. i've never seen a of healing in other places. i've never seen a time when i was so much utter contempt by what you might call a metropolitan elite for the working class hinterlands. it has been astonishingly ugly. putting an end to that kind of vitriol is what he has in mind. the healing quota will be looked back on like the margaret thatcher one in 79. i think healing will be impossible. i'm sure thatis healing will be impossible. i'm sure that is the intent. when margaret

thatcher said it it was soon followed by the miners strikes and all the rest of it. riots and so on, yes. people play those quotes ten years later with a kind of ironic smile. he went up to the north and was received very often with ecstatic friendliness. that was never the case with margaret thatcher. she couldn't have visited the mining towns. let's talk about the mining towns. let's talk about the north and what it called itself the north and what it called itself the north, labour, they claim to represent the working class but they lost a vote to an older tony in. where is it going to go next? they talk about a period of reflection and choosing a new leader. will that turn into an election winning machine? it will not necessarily produce that. it depends what form that will take. they are in disaster area. they lost four elections in a

row after 1979 and they've just lost another four row after 1979 and they've just lost anotherfour in row after 1979 and they've just lost another four in a row. this row after 1979 and they've just lost anotherfour in a row. this is a party that is so dysfunctional it cannot win elections when it should be able to do so. so this is a massive task. it is much harder on a lot of levels from 92 because the tories only had a very small majority then. but on another level i think it is doable. i think this alliance that borisjohnson has one. it isa alliance that borisjohnson has one. it is a must and —— alliance that borisjohnson has one. it is a mustand —— it alliance that borisjohnson has one. it is a must and —— it is a massive personal triumph for him but it is a fragile one. the voters in the north of england to a dissolution now can become disillusioned with him in a different way. there isn't a route back but it needs a giant figure and i'm not sure who that giant figure is but it needs the labour party to be wholly overhauled because it too often loses election. the parallel often loses election. the parallel of the four defeats that steve has come up with, they did overhauled at

that point. they were taken over by a marxist cult. but they went to blair after the four defeats, that is the point i am making and then they won. i don't think there is a hopein they won. i don't think there is a hope in hell of that happening again because the marxists have hold of virtually all the leaders of the party. the refusal of jeremy virtually all the leaders of the party. the refusal ofjeremy corbyn to stand down as one would expect him to do and his insistence on a period of reflection have been enforced by the people who run him because they have to hold onto those leaders so they are not displaced. it isa leaders so they are not displaced. it is a longer term historical tragedy. it is a party created to express the views of the industrial proletariat. there is no more industrial proletariat. what is their role? the future of the labour

party is so dire it reminds me of the 1983 election when michael foot came with a manifesto. creating the corbyn phenomenon was another suicide. look at the debate now compared to the 80s. it was about how much money should be spent.“ they don't move left is their credible room for another party of the centre—left? credible room for another party of the centre-left? corbyn disaster and brexit vagueness disaster and all these things... at the labour party comes from the grassroots. what we're seeing now from tory mps in the north is a different kind of grassroots politics. it will have to go back to the grassroots. i am sure we will see difficult times ahead economically in this country and

thatis economically in this country and that is where the labour party will have to reg row that is where the labour party will have to regrow from the community project, soup kitchens and those local self—help movements. it has got to go back to the roots. and there we have to leave it. we could have gone on for longer but that is it. that's it for dateline london for this week — we're back next week at the same time. goodbye. hello. we've got some very changeable weather coming up this weekend. one moment sunny, the next moment some heavy downpours coming through. but it was a reasonable start to the day. a bit of early morning sunshine spotted in northamptonshire, but some heavy showers on the way here. most of the uk will see some blustery showers working through at some point today.

as the weather turns colder overnight and into sunday, we will increasingly see those showers turn to snow across the northern hills. the satellite picture shows extensive cloud towards the north and west. that is where we are going to see the most persistent of the rain, particularly across the central belt of scotland, into argyll and bute. further south, showers will continue to push across the midlands into east anglia. a few towards south—east england and, wherever you are, it's going to be a blustery day. the strongest wind gusts running through the english channel and the channel islands seeing gusts up to 50 mph or 60 mph. temperatures on the low side for the northern half of the uk, where it's going to feel quite chilly, but further south you should see temperatures of about nine or 10 celsius. overnight, increasingly, as the air starts to cool down, we will see those showers transition to snow for some of us, particularly across northern hills, so across north wales, the pennines, the cumbrian fells, around the southern uplands of scotland, argyll and bute, hills towards the trossachs, is these areas that are most at risk of seeing some snow.

we could see a few centimetres building in for some. that could lead to some icy conditions on roads at higher elevations but, otherwise, it's the strength of the winds that will keep the frost at bay for most areas, with temperatures getting down close but just above freezing. looking at the weather picture for sunday, low pressure again is in charge of our weather, and again it's going to be a day of blustery showers, and again the showers starting off across wales and west of england before generally pushing away eastwards as the day goes by. although we start off with plenty of showers in the morning across northern ireland and scotland, i suspect we will see a little bit more in the way of sunshine between those downpours, but it's going to stay blustery again. top gusts of around a0 or 50 mph around the coasts and hills, which will certainly make it feel chilly, and it will be chilly across northern areas, with temperatures of three to 5 degrees for scotland, northern ireland, northern england, and eight or nine in the south. in the week ahead, it starts to turn a bit milder. rain at times, with temperatures pushing back into double figures towards the end of the week.

that's your weather.