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tv   Brexitcast  BBC News  January 9, 2020 9:30pm-10:01pm GMT

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now on bbc world news and the bbc news channel, the first brexitcast tv of 2020. all feels a bit different, doesn't it, somehow? where has thejeopardy gone? it's left the building. i have not run anywhere this to beget, apart from the park. the exercise and never quite happened in 2019, or 17. the park. the exercise and never quite happened in 2019, or17. so it is still brexitcast but there's other stuff happening this week, should be something else, sorry. maybe just a not say only words like exit. what are we going to be sleep cast? outcast? i like that. i like outcast. we have been that for many
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a time, many a year even if it's not the official title. welcome now to brexitcast. this is koch adler in brussels. next to adam fleming in brussels. and laura in westminster. and chris in westminster. 2020 is artie pretty different. it's really funny, here at westminster of these guys, the difference, i know that it was obvious there would be a difference
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because the conservatives want a big majority but the actual feel of it walking around parliament, there's the excitement of new mps who were coming in working on their smartphones, and they are excited to be in the building and fighting the way around. i received discussions to come about what brexit looks like, butjeopardy which is com pletely like, butjeopardy which is completely gone and itjust feels... they could not feel more different. a lot of people i've talked to this week saying there are number 2005 or 2006 when there were things that we re of 2006 when there were things that were of issue an important butjust kind of driving of things, or will there be a rebellion? how big would it be? politics never has were jeopardy if you can be certain whether the prime minister will survive the week or the government surviving the month of the fundamental reason for their existence delivery on brexit will even happen. in more than anything else, with a barely a whisper of argument the brexit bill we talked about 70 times a day passed by 99 votes. here it is. order. the ayes
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to the rights, three to 30, the noes to the rights, three to 30, the noes to the rights, three to 30, the noes to the left. 231. hear, hear! you can hear one to the left. 231. hear, hear! you can hearone mp to the left. 231. hear, hear! you can hear one mp they're saying while. for a lot of brexiteers it's the ultimate vindication of the strategy. he ran an election saying get brexit done. it's not a long—term relationship, it's that book today saying it's finished to the comments and off it will go to the comments and off it will go to the be able to stick the timetable he promised. i think it's always a slow start at the beginning of the year. a lot of focus, you know for those who even in the uk who felt that the whole issue of brexit was to close focused, and are now standing back and thinking about the environment obviously because of all the fires in australia they are thinking about geopolitics with iran and on iran, it does bring me back
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to brexit because you could see the uk in the diplomatic sphere with germany and france are still working together. you know, this is, i wanted to say people are saying this is the way to go and this is the way forward. but it's a reminder that borisjohnson likes to forward. but it's a reminder that boris johnson likes to talk about his friends partners in the european union and the 24 hours we've had the new commission president sort of lavishing praise and respect on the uk, but of course this is before the gloves are taken off at of the start of trade talks after brexit. we should be clear, the big momentous thing that happened this evening with a passing what is called third reading. at its final stage in the house of commons and goes to the house of commons and goes to the house of commons and goes to the house of lords. we don't expect their lordships to kick up much of a fuss and then a few days after that wa nt to fuss and then a few days after that want to get through the house of lords it will get royal assent which is when the green rubber stamps it symbolically and it will be law. how
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wilt theresa may have been feeling today? i think quite relieved. people say oh, she will secretly be better and furious but i think actually quite relieved. it's hard to understate that for the tories, my goodness, this is a majority that they never dreamt they could achieve it. less than six months after they had a government that was complete the following apart and so i think for them it's a party, you can see in their body language and feel it in their body language and feel it in the chatter around the place. labour is in on itself we'll talk about that a bit more in a bit later. maybe in the recesses of theresa may public mind she said to have a dark sense of humour, you never know. and all the technical details of this legislation, the government has added a few things that were not there in the version that were not there in the version that existed before the election. and a few people have tried to add things to it themselves. does bring us things to it themselves. does bring us up—to—date on what's gone in and not gone in. with a thumping
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majority, they cannot do what they like but they are not going to be troubled by the kinds of amendments and changes that the opposition party might want to make. today, in particular, the lib dems try to put down an amendment on erasmus, and lots of people are very interested in this chemotherapy and exchange programme for students, and they try to get the government to put into this legislation the fact that erasmus would continue and prosper, and it would have to do it legally. that amendment no surprise was defeated, but to be clear that does not mean that erasmus is somehow over and press will forever be excluded, it does not mean that it all. meet the government is sticking with the policy what they say is, look it can continue and we will work it out in the future. that's not good enough for some people but if you listening that's or watching this and worried about erasmus, what happened today does not mean it's over and will never take place again. also an amendment for the scottish national party where they we re scottish national party where they were arguing that elements of the
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withdrawal agreement bill or in contravention which is a power of the scottish parliament and scottish government would oversee and the s&p all voted for, and the conservatives and others voted against it. he had and others voted against it. he had a discussion and debate, but the outcome was a foregone conclusion. such a different atmosphere. such a different atmosphere. it was interesting to hear the new commission president yesterday in london, she had herfirst face—to—face meeting with the prime minister. give us the proper pronunciation. the native one.|j love pronunciation. the native one.” love it. i think i said pronunciation. the native one.” love it. i thinkl said ursula. she's not ursula. but she gave a speech at the lsc where she studied in the late 19705, and she said for her the withdrawal agreement, you
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know all of this leaving that is done and dusted. i thought again like that feeling today when i'm going to say this, even though we've discussed this before that we won't say it. the fact that it sailed through like that today is coming you do take, for all of them we followed every 22nd of it. it's a bit the same in the commission president says done and dusted chemical let's move on. if you like wow, that was three years, three torturous big years and now that door is closing and everyone is moving on by the end of this month. although they still have to work out how to implement the northern ireland bit. that will be done in parallel to trade talks. that was going to make this year so complicated. but that's the essential question that's been hovering over this. that we have so enjoyed chewing over. will this happen or not? yeah, it's happening. it's done. what, it's not as good a
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pronunciation answer was, i'm most impressed by her hyper lee fabulous clinton hairdo. i don't want to be flippant, but astonishing.” clinton hairdo. i don't want to be flippant, but astonishing. ijust got my head around ursula, it's what? hairspray adverts on german tv in the 19905. it was great. this woman gets out of an aeroplane and wind blowing, and it could have been her, and high heels hair that does not move when the wind blows and everything else moves up her hair doesn't. i need some of that for doing the news. we need it. also interested in how... the politics has changed radically since we last got on. she said she had been a punk, at some point and i wonder if she had just crazy here. shall we have a list of the serious business
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she was talking about? she's an anglophile, a self—confessed anglophile. she loves uk it waxed lyrically about how much she loved living in london and how much it taught her. anyone thinks this kind of anglo affiliate will make her software when it comes to trade talks is mistaken. it's an avalanche of love bombing for the uk in her speech is that was a very clear warnings as well. without the free movement of people you cannot have this free movement of capital goods and services. without a level playing field on environment, labour, taxation and state aid to, you cannot have the highest quality access to the world's largest single market. the more divergence there is no more distant the partnership will be. i guess that's the essence of
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it. talk of trade-offs might not be. i guess that's the essence of it. talk of trade—offs might not be as sexy as the jeopardy of the last 12 months, but trade—offs, the compromises around the negotiations to come is where the story is going. in the big question politically is whether or not boris johnson will stick to his timetable. he said once it's all done and dusted in a year but there's a lot of clues from her, and also clues in the british side that how this is likely to play out and this is the expectation in and around whitehall, i don't know if that's your opinion but basically there's a very likely here to be what she described as priorities. different layers of agreement and i know already is beneficial talking about how you get something by the end of the year. so that you can say you have met the promise. answer bits of the deal will be done. there will be layers of agreement, how do you sequence different layers of agreement, how do you choreograph it
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so that the political promise can be kept, the deal can be done but with other bits to be tied up. would it matter given the size of his majority at the particle promise was not kept? it would be tricky and embarrassing, but is it going to bring government down? no. it's not just about keeping your promise. it would mean paying into the eu budget for longer. and that is, you know, it's notjust a date change, i think the eu believe borisjohnson when he says that he does not want to extend this standstill transition period that will start as soon the end of this month, basically and last until the end of this year. but even, when you say the word prioritise that something that you are hearing as you are from bernie as well. the eu is hell— bent on
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you are from bernie as well. the eu is hell—bent on prioritising its main issues of interest first. it sells more to the uk in the uk so to the eu. security and defence cooperation is what they want to prioritise first. and of course fish. that will be difficult for borisjohnson. fish. that will be difficult for boris johnson. notjust collocated because of all the different national and supranational if you can use that word, epic economically and sexually, no offence to anybody, it's economically tiny. politically it's economically tiny. politically it's enormous. semi—different issues and kind of a patchwork of all sorts of different things that might explode on their own. the signs in the uk side that they do not want to do, and is agreed till everything is agreed, they want to do this piece by piece and may be that the only
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way that they can really get it done. because could you ever get all agreed? barnier who is staying on a chief negotiator said and went into bit more detail but what i got the impression from him that the deal the other stuff will be conditional on two other deals being done first, one the fisheries deal, which they wa nt to one the fisheries deal, which they want to have done and dusted by the summer, and also an arrangement and agreement on the so—called level playing field. how you manage economic competition between the two sides. i got the impression from him that it's only when those two things are agreed that he will be prepared to move onto the other stuff, and doesn't that sound very familiar like a withdrawal agreement phase one? sort of citizens' rights? money? the average border before we get onto thejuicier money? the average border before we get onto the juicier staff. is it that sequential is him again? maybe that sequential is him again? maybe that should be the new name of our
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podcast. parallel cast. sequential cast. even further niche. some of the officials who have been involved in this in the uk side sent to make of the fascinating thing about this next set of negotiation is it will become located and be tough, the eu is not going to play softball, but the way they put it is that the balance of power is changed here because previously there was always a block of about 40 or 50 mp5 in parliament for the eu were sure it would stop the government leaving without a deal. with the majority now of 80 and the government that cutty, as you said, it believes that borisjohnson is cutty, as you said, it believes that boris johnson is serious. cutty, as you said, it believes that borisjohnson is serious. the copy sure was over, any of these people, they cannot pull strings. deal is not finished? we don't care, we are going to go. how does brussels now
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look at the british government in a way that it did not before the election given how the numbers have so radically changed?” election given how the numbers have so radically changed? i think whether it's a massive majority or whatever you want to call it, that does not impress the eu. the eu still thinks that it holds most of the cards, is still thinks that if there is no deal come the end of the year the there is no deal come the end of the yearthe uk there is no deal come the end of the year the uk would be worse off than the eu. he believes the uk needs this deal more than the eu does. what the government does have is a very clear mandate. the couple that time under theresa may when the eu was saying you've got to be sure about what you want, have to be sure about what you want, have to be sure about what you want. boris johnson wants divergence and he's got to have this big clash. but the eu is hell— bent on getting have this big clash. but the eu is hell—bent on getting is tying the uk to competition rules if you like
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contacts, environment and labour regulations because they're worried about deregulated uk. being too much ofa about deregulated uk. being too much of a competition to do that. is going to be big tonsil that is sort of that alignment versus divergence. another thing that came out of his speech today was the borisjohnson has very clearly said the uk will not align or sign up to eu rules in perpetuity, they're going to have to look at it in a different way. my hunchis look at it in a different way. my hunch is that the deal will be less about upfront alignment setting up to follow eu rules potentially forever as they develop, and more about what tools does the eu have at its disposal to manage that diversion so if the uk, for example, decides to have a load of money to a company ina decides to have a load of money to a company in a region to say that because it's in trouble, that state aid to, what with the eu do as not, retaliation but manage the flow of product affected? would you put a tariff or quota or ban on something
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on that product? ijust get the sense they're moving away from this idea and getting the uk to commit to following the rules. and it's more about manufacturing a process. that will be how you manage the potential divergence about incentives and disincentives for the uk to pursue a different path. at this early stage where they haven't even agreed to this mandate. brexit castres will know how much the mandate matters. adam is going to print it out and put it in his binder. how big is your mandate ? put it in his binder. how big is your mandate? there is the title. mandate cast. mandates being waved around. it's very early and it sounds like for the conversations collectively maybe this is going to bea collectively maybe this is going to be a sort of evolving piecemeal kind of thing that will be a sort of living breathing arrangement. rather thana living breathing arrangement. rather
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than a tone that is definitive forever. i think you will get something at the end of this year so borisjohnson can something at the end of this year so boris johnson can say, something at the end of this year so borisjohnson can say, see, i got it. they will find a way to continue the conversations in 2021 and 22. and however long it takes. that living, breathing three—dimensional thing will play out in the uk priorities as it looks around the world. we see in this interview that our colleagues have done, tom has done with the environment secretary on our old friend chlorinated chicken over the uk would ever be able for chlorinated chicken and hormone treated beef and even though we had conservatives saying they we re we had conservatives saying they were not too keen on said poultry, others are saying definitively it's not can happen. to stick with the eu ban is interesting. exactly. that will have consequences for the us trade deal. in other personal and political relationships will matter
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as well. it's spite if we go back her with four sets of this week was quite interesting. seeing him with jean—claude was very different to seeing tusk in may and may and what did you make of seeing them alongside each other? first thing that me was watching many hours of him doing speeches and 0&a us he was ina him doing speeches and 0&a us he was in a details person. whereas ursula very is. all of these things in the audience making a subparagraph and citizens' rights and there is the a nswer we re citizens' rights and there is the answer were straightaway and she did not have one. she's varied across the details. he did a stage invasion, it was hilarious. the newest challenge was can you deliver a sentence without quoting or mentioning barnier. fair enough. that heat storm the stage orjust
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walk up to it? my favourite bit of the whole royal visit was when she went into downing street and boris johnson shoved her into the room and headed for the armchairs for the slightly awkward chat these people have to do and showing they are friendly and we have this conversation about how they quote unquote went to school together. so one of those moments where, with
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he telling a lie orjust wanted it to be true so that showed there were good friends? a fresh new start? introduce that marvellous playground export of british bulldog or someone pose my arm got broken. he saw him charging down that japanese school kid in the rugby match. a fiend. does anyone have any old film of the playground of the international school committee brussels international school circa 1972? if the biographical curiosity that he or two people who are the offspring of bureaucrats. which is why they we re of bureaucrats. which is why they were at the same school at different times in brussels. here they are on opposite sides of this negotiation. politics is ever like its own little world and perhaps peoples offspring get involved in it. so today it is
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the duchess of cambridge public birthday. not very relevant to the debate. happy birthday to barnier. 69 today. he is 69. he got an itty—bitty 69 today. he is 69. he got an itty— bitty cake. 69 today. he is 69. he got an itty-bitty cake. yes, he did his speech about the future relationship and at the end they surprised them with a tiny cake. which is one candle on it. it was like the size ofa candle on it. it was like the size of a cupcake. and yellow. wasn't it yellow? he's know for being a very healthy eater so he probably would not have even eaten it.” healthy eater so he probably would not have even eaten it. i thought you always bumped into him in a bakery. i bumped to him with a quiche and he said it was a very unhealthy lunch. barnier cast. it's
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about how you mark these momentous birthdays like the 69th birthday or being in the eu. we want people to tell us how they are planning to mark the moment whether they are celebrating it or being sad about it. if you're planning something at 11pm and drop us an e—mail about it. 0rget in 11pm and drop us an e—mail about it. or get in touch with us in social media using this hashtag. we promise not to crash it, just to get an idea of what people are doing. storyboard yourideas of what people are doing. storyboard your ideas for us. just want to prove that some things about this whole process has not changed in the big political change of the last few weeks, we thought we got to play this before we finish this week. which is mark france the conservative mp from a big figure of
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the erg, those letters that we use so often in 2019. with this plate request in the comments a little earlier on. we will leave the european union on the 31st of january. as we leave at a precise, specified time, those who wish to celebrate will need to look towards a clock to mark the moment. it seems inconceivable to me and many collea g u es inconceivable to me and many colleagues that that clock should not be the most iconic timepiece in the world, big ben. will he make representations to the house of commons commission whose decision this is that big ben should bong for brexit? that was a question targeted at the brexit secretary who basically said not my call. because of thejob of basically said not my call. because of the job of the house of commons authority. this is the big ben
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brexit done being a ding dong. don't make me say that again. that's better. what's that sound to hear, if the distant bong that is telling us if the distant bong that is telling us that time is up. goodbye. goodbye. hello there. it's an unsettled picture for the week ahead. with spells of weights and when the weather which could be disruptive and interspersed with something drier and quieter. here's what we have a strong and active jet stream which acts like a sort of conveyor belt bringing areas of low pressure
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in off the atlantic towards our shores, and those area of low pressure bring what and windy weather, but in between we will see something drier, quieter but looks fairly short—lived as we continue to see this areas of low pressure moving from the west. from there looks like it will start off on our quieter notes, and chillier start perhaps with the few patches of ice, some of us waking up to a touch of frost. does the click will be mostly dry and fine through the day and consistent really coastal showers but tend to fade away. a temperature sitting in around six to nine celsius. the cloud will increase though they are in the day with rain and strengthening winds pushing into the north and west. this unsettled weather courtesy of this area of low pressure and its associated weather fronts. because he is to in this milderair fronts. because he is to in this milder air mass yellow and orange in the map which saturday is looking quite mild. a good deal of rain the across scotland and northern ireland and parts of northern england. part
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of scotla nd and parts of northern england. part of scotland could see around 100 mm of scotland could see around 100 mm of rain and because the issues of localised flooding. drier weather to be found further south and east but afairamount of be found further south and east but a fair amount of cloud here and take a fair amount of cloud here and take a look at the temperatures from a mile for the time of year and highs of 13 celsius and a windy day across the board. that rain slips its way southeast into the night over sunday. a cold front so will the something pressure behind it. she's a burly rain to begin the day and in the south and east. that will clear it and we are looking at sunny spells and showers. the show was to be wintry or high ground in the north and west. the winds later than saturday to much of which are starting to come back down again so less mild that we will see on saturday with highs of around 69 celsius. just holding onto double figures across southern parts of england. the cold front clears towards the east as we move into monday and then we see another drier interlude before it, you guessed it, the next area of low pressure pushes
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in off of the atlantic and it looks like a deep area of low pressure, so for monday as it starts from any dry and bright, cloud will increase with rain feeding into the west. looks like that rain will come with some strong gale force winds. temperatures at a maximum of around eight to 11 celsius. does not look like we are going to see a great deal of change as we look further ahead. continue to see areas of low pressure feeding in and later on to say looks like you could see some stormy weather, to stay across the forecast and keep you up—to—date on that as he moved closer to tuesday. we are going to hold onto that strong jet stream as we move through the weekend head. and contingencies areas of low pressure moving in. there are signs at the moment and could just see something a little quieter towards the end of the week. into next week often looking mild, the strong winds and rain at times but that could cause some disruption
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between something a bit drier and quieter, it looks like we could see a longer interlude later in the week. it's claimed this was the moment the plane was hit, with 176 people on board — many of them were canadian. the evidence indicates that the plane was shot down by an iranian surface—to—air missile. this may well have been unintentional. tonight, iran denies the plane was hit by a missile and calls the claims psychological warfare. also on the programme... the queen summons herfamily to try to find a solution for the duke and duchess of sussex after their shock announcement — a way forward is expected within days. left on a hospital trolley for more than 24 hours — a&e departments in england record their worst ever

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