tv Dateline London BBC News January 25, 2020 11:30am-12:01pm GMT
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wasn't actually wa 5.. .5 .-.5. mortality rate wasn't actually that great. it was about 10%. and it looks like this virus, the mortality rate is rather low at the moment. but they have, at a distance of course, as i am not in china, but it looks as if they have reacted rather soon, quick and transparency and clarity is key to avoid panic. they also put whole cities on lockdown. a lot of china's families are remaining at home, etc, they are going to build a hospital in ten days, as only the chinese can do. of course, it is only 17 years ago that the chinese were not in as big trouble as they are today. but even though we know now that the virus has reached europe, i don't feel that the same sense of panic because you know, it is always scary, and epidemic, as such. but it has
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already been sequenced, we know that it has come from a snake. it looks like it is going pretty fast and probably the main difference is that the chinese president sent the message, lives are more important than anything else. so we will talk about the impact on the economy later, so i am sure sort of reassured. perhaps that shouldn't be. what about you? from one asian rising power to another, when indians look at how the chinese are doing this, and as agnes points out, there are some advantages obviously of being a top—down authority and authoritarian state and saying, we are going to put this city of ten or 11 million people on lockdown. when indians look at that, had a deal about the management of that? may connect wealth, the lockdown aspect wouldn't happen in india, but there are similarities because india and china are both that developing stages and are not at world class
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standard, and therefore the response is reactive rather than proactive. that is exactly what we have seen. it harris has been around for a month and we have seen a really aggressive approach only in the past week or so full stop that explains it and also, once they have got it under control, of course, they will certainly be able to manage it much better, but we don't know to what extent it has spread because it is a medical factor. we don't really know. but it is unlikely to be as bad as sars because china is much more organised as compared to 17 years ago. but there is a bet in china, let's face it, as to whether the system has been slow to react to what has happened and whether they have underplayed it. and obviously they were looking in the timing, you know, that this all took place or began just ahead of the biggest annual migration of the chinese public for chinese new year, but
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suzanne, he wanted to come in. yeah, i wanted to comment about how the chinese authorities are dealing with this. i think they know that the whole world is looking at how they handle a crisis like this. they had already been in the public eye with the hong kong protests and i think there is a consciousness there that there is a consciousness there that the world is looking at them and this is a big global news story with global ramifications. it is 17 years since the sars crisis, but obviously china has become so much more dominant asa china has become so much more dominant as a global power and economy and people are more interested in what is happening in china andl interested in what is happening in china and i think the president of china and i think the president of china is aware of that. 0k, they signed one trade deal in the last week or so, but there are still significant week or so, but there are still significa nt tariffs week or so, but there are still significant tariffs on chinese goods, this conflict over huawei, the telecommunications provider. so i think china is approaching this
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crisis and a very delicate time in terms of their reputation. steve, what about the global implications of this? let's hope it doesn't get much worse. and it is a kind of useful rehearsal for the bigger pandemics, of course, that the world health authorities there. do you think it is one that we are ready for? to some extent, but i am not a medical expert and i am not a china expert, but whenever these viruses erupt, ifind expert, but whenever these viruses erupt, i find them a very useful metaphor to remind us that in this sort of global economy, things move very quickly. and the issue is the degree to which governments can mediate and how, and in this case obviously, it is checking people coming into the country. maybe it is too late in some cases because i didn't realise it started a month ago, actually. ithought didn't realise it started a month ago, actually. i thought china had been quite quick this time. and this issue of how you manage something
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that erupts in one place and becomes global within days, applied to the financial crash in 2008, is part of the explanation about brexit, which i know we are coming onto later, about whether you can turn inwards away from global phenomenon or whether there are other ways in which you can mediate. to some extent here, it is obvious what you do, but if there is something on a bigger scale, it will be very tough to control and governments will have to control and governments will have to act together and separately, borders and all the rest of it. so i just find it very interesting as a metaphor, not being a medical expert i cannotjudge the weight of this. and just before we leave this topic, do any of you think that we are all over reacting to something that is still, despite think that that it spiked last week, is still really quite small? both inside china and indeed, globally. it is not exactly the spanish flu of a century ago,
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which affected 500 million people and killed many. it is a very dramatic media story. i have just come from the us and it is featuring on the us networks, even though they tend not to cut the much global news, but this is breaking news there. obviously there has been some suspected cases in america. it is kind of story takes on its own momentum and can dramatise. you'll like but you talked about the spanish flu, talk about the plague in europe. so it'sjust it corresponds to something in our history, those pandemics that suddenly a whole generation is concerned. you know, iwas suddenly a whole generation is concerned. you know, i was reading about the epidemic in paris in 1822, wiping out lots of people. it is the
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same thing. lets face it, while the travel restrictions have come into being in the last week or so, people incubating the honours have been travelling for a month, so we don't know the extent to which it can potentially spread. so therefore, as i say, precaution is absolutely necessary. and on that, we are going to move on. let's focus on it properly now. an estimated 30 people have died in india in the weeks of protest since the enactment of a controversial new citizenship law. last week india's supreme court refused to block implementation of the citizenship amendment act, but told the government to respond to petitions challenging its constitutional validity. is there any sign that either the legal challenges or the street protests will trigger a government rethink? ashis, you arejust ashis, you are just back from
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ashis, you arejust back from india. this is one for you. it is like this. the home minister is adamant that this and men go through. —— make this amendment. he has given his backing to the new law, but it hasn't been gone through yet. something equally controversial is all the national register for citizens. the two issues are intertwined and this is seen as a clear move against the muslims in india because what we have in india, as has been quite widely reported, are a hindu nationalist government. and there are gender from the very beginning has been to impose hindu supremacy in india and marginalise the muslims. this is what the protests are all about. but they
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insist that any citizen who is a muslim has got full protection under the law. but that is not what the legislation suggests because the legislation suggests because the legislation says that persecuted people from neighbouring countries can come into india, but not muslims. so this, according to lawyers that i have spoken to, is a clear violation of the indian constitution. of course, a judgment will take place from the supreme court of india in a couple of months, and as to whether they think the legislation is valid or not, is something we will come to know about. about it at the moment, the matter is really in the corner of the people, and we have seen massive, unprecedented demonstrations all over the country. notjust a street demonstrations all over the country. not just a street demonstrations, running to hundreds of thousands, maybe half a million on a couple of locations. but also in university after university, students are protesting against this law. and so, therefore i think the jury is out on this. the government is still
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determined. they have backtracked on the nrc, the national register of citizens, but they seem to be still insisting that this citizenship amendment act will go through. but asi amendment act will go through. but as i said, people's opinions will matter and therefore, in the coming weeks and months when the weather gets better because the protests have been taking place in bitter cold weather, and so, if the weather is fairer, then certainly it could be to the advantage of the demonstrators. having said that, there is one point, which is this. the students have to get back to their studies and exams at some point. so whether they will be able to sustain their protest, we will have to wait and see. steve, your thoughts on this. i think this is the leader is a curious combination. like champ, a an anti—state to state statesman. but actually, he is a
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centralised pulling levers of the state, apparently indifferent to some of the legal implications and i guess, indifferent to these protests. and his past... i know the situation here is unique to india, but he is part of this curious group of figures who are being elected around the globe who claim to loathe and despise government and politics, whilst centralising in a kind of frenzy, productive way.|j whilst centralising in a kind of frenzy, productive way. i believe the brazilian president is visiting this weekend and it is a big national holiday there. here's another strong man, right—wing, and authoritarian populist figure. and what is so disquieting about what is happening with the indian leader is that it happening with the indian leader is thatitis happening with the indian leader is that it is again symbolising this resurgent nationalism that we are seeing around the world, this may
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the way in terms of immigration and globalisation, even though india has been trying to cast itself as this global power, but of course, like a lot of these movements, india is in a position, not quite of weakness, but the economy is really slowing down now and there has got to be some kind of massive investment programme in india, but things are not good with the economy there, so is this an asset to stoke up this ungrounded in the other and also, it is also people within their own country. it is not actually immigrants in the country, it is people within the state of india who have being disconnected against. no but he has been elected twice with a majority and he could have used that majority and he could have used that majority to do all the economy performs that where necessary. he has at the head of a big democracy. we wa nt
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has at the head of a big democracy. we want areas that are so different tonight, and he isjust fanning the fla mes tonight, and he isjust fanning the flames division within his own country. they are really interested in unity, which is one of the layers of nationalism, which implies the exact opposite. i think it is still the idea of us and them. people like president trump have this too. he is stoking up fear, narendra modi is stoking up fear, narendra modi is stoking up fear, when there is no need to do that. if this analysis from the rest of the table is correct, has he somehow overestimated the extent to which he represents the as? i think the government has been taken by surprise by the extent of the mass protests that have taken place. and so there is certainly it hesitation now as to how they will tackle this here onwards. having said that, i
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think the unrest is as much about the economic slowdown as a protest against what is happening. because characters like narendra modi are essentially divisive in their politics, and so that division to him has meant consolidation of the hindu majority vote and to marginalise the muslims and the christians and the rest of them. now, this hasn't worked on this occasion. so you are saying there are hindus out protesting in large numbers? yes, the hindus are as much up numbers? yes, the hindus are as much up in arms on this issue at the other communities. because what? because they believe in the secularism of india, they believe in the constitution of india. many protests have ta ken the constitution of india. many protests have taken place where people are simply reading the preamble of the indian constitution, which is considered to be sacrosanct. which brings me back to where we started, you said the
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supreme court is going to rule on the constitution of the validity and a couple of months. that going to put an end to all this? theyjust going to have to bend the constitution act if they say it is unconstitutional? yes, if the supreme court says it is not constitutional, then certainly they will it will have to be binned. they can bring it back at a later point, never there are 140 petitions or more with the supreme court on this matter.. it is massive. were we will leave it for the moment. the shouting is over, the withdrawal agreement signed. the uk will leave the european union one week from now. that rubicon crossed, other challenges come into focus: the future relationship with the eu, a free trade agreement with the united states. after four years of anguished debate about what brexit might mean, we are about to see what it actually means. steve, some predictions? some predictions about what will happen
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in the trade deal, you mean? 0r vague predictions about how... week ago, we had the uk chancellor saying we'll will be non—aligned with the eu regulations and then a couple of days later, he seemed to slightly backtrack and say we won't diverge for the sake of it. yes. the context of this is all the big decisions are still to be made, so when britain leaves onjanuary the sist, when britain leaves onjanuary the 31st, in the future it will be cinematic. they will be a split screen with the celebrations on january the 31st and some symbol of all the nightmarish talks still to come stop and those celebrations will look odd, retrospectively, in some cases may look odd at the time. and this is wonderful. sajid javid fought... he has a weak chancellor and number ten is the dominant force in british politics at the moment, ina way in british politics at the moment, in a way that is almost unprecedented in the last 50 years.
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that is that is quite a big statement. people compare it with tony blair because he had big priorities, but gordon brown was an almost equal force and broke the budgets. number ten is writing the budgets. number ten is writing the budget that will be presented in march. and sajid javid in his interview last week 40 was echoing the number ten line, maximum divergences, businesses have plenty of time to prepare, etc. then businesses responded despairingly, angrily, and i think number ten fort we don't want to be seen as recklessly anti—business, so we better turn it down at it. but i think that shows the degree to which they have been calls to make on divergence. in general terms, they have made it. they want a big divergence with the european union. but what does that mean for companies whose main market is the european union? and they, i think are still in the place that theresa may was at the beginning of her
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negotiations. they want their cake and to eat it as well. they want the best of both. they want to start negotiating with america. they want to start with japan. but they have got to resolve this trading arrangement with the european union. and they have got so little time to do it. and are these issues all related? do it. and are these issues all related ? agnes, another thing do it. and are these issues all related? agnes, another thing we saw last week was the very same chancellor, sajid javid, sitting on a platform at davos alongside the us trade secretary and they were trading threats in the way we don't normally see between the uk and the us. well, this time the uk is not going to be part of a party of 28 members, who can together as the eu be as big an actor as china or the united states. so the uk is going to find itself very vulnerable to the
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american pressure. i mean, imagine. so even president macron, and there isa so even president macron, and there is a truce that france wants to implement... and we had to bow down really because president trump said 0k, really because president trump said ok, i'm going to apply tariffs on them. and so, the big difference is to go about it alone. what i find important... since boris johnson cosmic election, is that there is temporary relief. brexit is happening so there is no use crying over spilt milk. it is happening, it is inevitable, no second referendum, it is gone. it is finished. so there might be some celebrations at the end of next week, but then reality strikes. and will be fascinating, because perhaps it will be good, but at least facts. britain is going to
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head... 11 months, we will see. on the us, uk is getting mixed messages about what it wants to do the us trade deal or... on the us trade deal, there are a couple of points here. never one, there have been a few issues in the last week that are going to be problematic for the uk us relationship. britain has mentioned it may introduce a digital services tax, which may impact on american companies. hence the moment at davos and the threat. yes. number two, huawei, the chinese telecommunications company. there is a decision this week about what involvement huawei will have any role of 4g. i wasjust reading today that the secretary of state of america are arriving for talks. the third thing is, trump is very pro—uk
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and brexit and wants to strike a trade deal. but of course we had met two elections in america in november, and no one knows if trump will be there any more. and also, congress has a big role to play. they will take ages, they will have the final say on that. sol they will take ages, they will have the final say on that. so i think for the the final say on that. so i think forthe uk, the final say on that. so i think for the uk, the the final say on that. so i think forthe uk, the mixed messages the final say on that. so i think for the uk, the mixed messages about who are you going to sign with first. from the eu's perspective, the eu commissioner was in washington last week, discussing its own relationship with the us and he was saying publicly at some events that their biggest concern in brussels is they are going to face another cliff edge at the beginning of the year and this timescale is too limiting. we had only got until the end of the year to strike this trade deal and he was worried. boris johnson is in such a strong position now with his huge majority, but they are worried about that timetable. do think there is a danger that
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eve ryo ne think there is a danger that everyone else around the table is going to be a bit too negative? borisjohnson is that going to be a bit too negative? boris johnson is that we going to be a bit too negative? borisjohnson is that we can now move forward as one country, delivering this great opportunity and unleashing the potential of every corner of the uk. they said that the withdrawal bill part was the easy bit and it will be tougher later on. it has taken three and a half years for the withdrawal bill to come to pass. what is certain is that if a free trade agreement happens in11 that if a free trade agreement happens in 11 months, it will be a world record. it has never happened before. it has never happened anywhere in the world. so the certainty is this. that the greater the alignment between the eu and the uk, the quickerand the alignment between the eu and the uk, the quicker and easier it will be to find agreement. but if there is divergence, then it will take longer and therefore, 11 months may bea longer and therefore, 11 months may be a little too optimistic. and that is the key issue over the next two
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months. the government says the reason it can be done quickly is because we start aligned, so it is not like canada or where you start from outside and have to negotiate. but the twist is that they want to become divergent, rather than remain aligned. so in a way, it is more common, skated in canada because you have to work out how you extract from the existing joint regulations or whatever, and what you do and how much fiction you then put into subsequent trade arrangements. and that may take ages. you have already done the parade and let's just pick up, suzanne made the point that borisjohnson has a huge majority, the labour party are busy fighting their internal leadership battle. do they actually have a role in the ii that you are describing or are they just going to be signing —— are sidelined. ? they are certainly
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sidelined. ? they are certainly sidelined now and that is one the reasons why borisjohnson is so powerful at the moment because he doesn't have a big opposition. even when they do elect a leader, he will be absolutely triumphant on every parliamentary vote as he is in its very strong position. but this labour labour leadership race is more important than it seems, given that he has got this big majority, in the sense that these trade deals demand forensic scrutiny. they are complicated. it is not quite as dramatic and accessible as the withdrawal bill. but if they elect a leader capable of detailed scrutiny, that will be an important role to play, even though borisjohnson will win every note on these issues and there won't be that many votes on them anyway. so it is an important pa rt them anyway. so it is an important part of the equation. in the months to come. not yet, this race is lasting about 25 years, but when they finally elect a leader, that will be a significant moment. and there we will have to leave it or
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leave it, i am afraid. thank you very much. that's it for dateline london for this week — we're back next week at the same time. goodbye. for many of us, a gloomy day today, overcast pretty much across the whole country. there is a change on the way. from tomorrow, we expect some rain. it will be a brief spell of rain, but it could be quite heavy. let's look at the big picture. here's the uk, and a big low pressure out in the atlantic, south of iceland. this is a cold front approaching the uk, and we will start to see the winds freshening and the clouds increasing across the north—west later on today.
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the picture this afternoon, freshening winds and maybe some spots of rain in the western isles, but for the vast majority of the uk it is a cloudy day with maybe a little bit of drizzle, from thicker cloud here and there. 9 in london, belfast and stornoway. through tonight, we see those winds increasing in the north—west, perhaps up to gale force. here comes the weather front, bringing spells of rain overnight in northern ireland and scotland. for england and wales, i think a dry night for you, with temperatures no lower than around about 4 degrees, so a frost—free night. tomorrow, the weather front is going to start to introduce colder air to north—west parts of the uk, all the way from the north atlantic. that also means there is a chance of some wintry weather sunday night into monday in the north. we will look at that in a second. sunday, rain across western areas in the morning, and then that weather front moves
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east, so the afternoon in the east should be wet, at least at times. in the west, you can see some sunshine coming through on sunday afternoon, just before sunset, and that colder air coming off the atlantic. 5 degrees in belfast. sunday night into monday, i mentioned some wintry weather, and here it comes for northern ireland, scotland, the pennines and yorkshire in the early hours of monday, so early on monday across some northern areas, especially some higher routes in the hills, there could be some wet snow. chilly in the north on monday. 5 degrees for the lowlands of scotland. still just about double figures across the south. that sets the trend for early next week. it will be a bit colder and just a bit more unsettled.
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