this is the business briefing. i'm victoria fritz. a $1.7 trillion gamble. britain's economic future at stake as it reshuffles trade ties with europe — and the rest of the world plus, net benefits. will brexit land uk fishermen a bigger share of the catch — or leave them adrift? and on the markets: wall street stages a late comeback, bucking a sharp sell—off in global equities, while china's currency weakens as fresh concerns over the coronavirus outbreak ripple through markets.

we start with brexit — because after one referendum, two elections, three prime ministers and four years of political wrangling it is finally happening. britain leaves the european union at 23h00 gmt tonight. not much will change in the short term — because the uk will enter what's known as a transition period for the rest of the year. it remains in the eu single market and customs union — subject to eu rules, but without any say over them. during the next 11 months — travel between the uk and eu will be unaffected — there will still be freedom of movement — and trade will continue on the same terms, without taxes or border checks. but during that time the two sides must agree their future trading

relationship. there is a vast amount at stake: britain does trade worth $1.7 trillion a year. almost half of it with the european union. and much of the rest, under deals the eu has with other countries — which britain will no longer be part of. a key benefit of brexit could be the ability to strike a trade deal with the us — which the eu doesn't have. it's already britain's biggest trading partner outside the eu — accounting for 15 per cent of trade. us secretary of state mike pompeo told reporters in london on thursday that it won't be easy, but he's optimistic. be easy, but he's optimistic. complicated and there w be complicated and there will be times when it will be very contentious in both negotiating teams want to preserve things by their own country, that's how negotiations work. that shouldn't couple any of us, when the heart stops when there did good points along the way and we committed working on this as quickly as we can. i don't want to put such a

timeline on this, it will take a little bit that we hope that by the late summer, early or, we have a substantial piece of progress and can close out the most difficult issues. i know the united kingdom keen is getting ready to go. that's why wa nted getting ready to go. that's why wanted to be here today to be the starting gun stop let's get some views now from the business world. suren thiru is head of economics at the british chambers of commerce. and kallum pickering is from berenberg bank. he joins me from the city of london. good day to you both. thank you for joining good day to you both. thank you forjoining us. let's start with you, surin, if i made. the same question remains from the last four years or so. what happens next? we know this transition period is in place. it only takes us to the end of the year. in the short-term, this year, nothing really changes for businesses. in

theory, there should be no new trade restrictions or trade costs but beyond 2020, everything changes. fundamental changes to how you trade. massive changes. what we hope in the next couple of months, as we move from the politics of brexit. in terms of the practicalities, we understand from some of the newspapers that are starting to be brief on all of this, we're looking ata on all of this, we're looking at a canada style arrangement. something that was touted a very long time ago. just imagine that for a second, the road that we are potentially going down, border checks. what about manufacturing? there is concern about what will happen aboard. if there are new checks with the countries. there is

also issues around capacity. but we really want to see, it minimises cost infection businesses. it will be able to help in 2021 and beyond, making sure we move smoothly towards new trading agreements. from the city of london, if i can bring you in, kallum, currently with the city of london arrangement, with are concerned about financial services, that is a huge contributor for tax income to the uk. it is a big hole to field. leaving the eu will not deliver such a big blow to financial services. the reason the uk is a good place is because in the uk we set our domestic regulations in such a way that it's a favourable environment for financial services. remember, above all,

it's not your trade deals which determine the amount of exports you had it's how good of a domestic economy you have so firms can produce things that foreigners want to buy. what we will likely see as the uk leaves the single market at the end of this year is part of the city which has access to the eu market will see a change in its regulations and some businesses will have to send some stuff onto the continent in order to satisfy. i would describe that as relatively small losses which look like very big gains ina much which look like very big gains in a much smaller financial centres, the likes of anchored in paris, the likes of dublin. the expectation is that the central scenario is true and we're sort of heading towards a style arrangement, that could be up to 5% hit on gdp, domestic dinner uk. 0ver be up to 5% hit on gdp, domestic dinner uk. over a five year period. it's quite significant. economists myself, we forecast that but it's very difficult to forecast that. the

way to think about it is, there are way to think about it is, there a re really way to think about it is, there are really only two questions. what happens to the economy in the short—term when the uk leaves the single market and then what's the long—term impact. in the short—term, the uk and the eu don't get a trade deal, canada style trade deal agreed on time and the need to find more runway to find more time. they will come up with something vertical fudge. time. they will come up with something verticalfudge. in the areas of trade covered by the areas of trade covered by the single market, i would expect a series of mini deals just to smooth the exit from the single market to the future trade arrangement. in the long run, an open question. inside the eu, the uk was growing 2% on average each year. as i would think it's more like 1.796. would think it's more like 1.7%. that depends on what the outlook for the future trade is an importantly, immigration rules. just looking at some of

this in domestic policy as kallu m this in domestic policy as kallum was mentioning, it's interesting the narrative of very much changed in terms of politics. under boris johnson government, central to it is this idea of levelling up between the north and the south. hs2 for example being a big project the kind of goes behind that. how is this going to play out across the country? it's popular, with lots of voters, but it's not going to be that popular with your traditional tory heartland. the point kallum made was right. getting infrastructure connected, cities connected, so hsz as important as a big infrastructure projects. in the next couple of months, we got a budget coming up in march, how can you boost productivity and boost growth and getting good instructions in place to do that. yes, yes. thank you for

joining us from the city of london. it may not have the financial clout of banking or manufacturing, but you will be hearing a lot about britain's fishing industry in the coming months. the eu has made it clear that any trade deal must include an agreement on fishing access to british waters, and that it should be reached by the beginning ofjuly. british fishermen in brixham, devon, fear that their interests will be sacrificed to get a deal with the eu. you have to be optimistic to be a fisherman. you'd never leave the harbour if you want optimistic. i am andy mcleod, i am skipper owner of the van dyke, i've been fishing for 35 yea rs, dyke, i've been fishing for 35 years, a father owned the boats, pass them on to me, my son working with me so it's a generationalfamily son working with me so it's a generational family thing. it's seen as a bit of a romantic

life being a fisherman. it's actually very hard work, you are away from your families and home for days on end. i voted to leave because i wanted to regain some more control over our waters and have a bigger share of the quota. the french get 84% of the channelled cord. the uk gets 9% which doesn't strike me as being particularly fair. you'd like to think the government would turn around and go, 0k, we're going to start putting tariffs on our fish. we will put tariffs on the german and french cars, french wine and cheese, the biggest areas that fishing will be used as a bargaining chip and we are just pawns to be sacrificed for the good of the country. if we don't get continued reasonable fishing, we could end up with a lot of coastal towns becoming ghost towns because like in brixham,

you've got fishing and tourism, that's it. there is no fishing, you have lots of tourism and a lot of tourists come to brixham to see fishing boats. the uk government's official review into the hs2 rail project strongly advises against cancelling it, the bbc can reveal. hs2 is designed to link london, birmingham, manchester and leeds, cutting overcrowding on the railways and helping to rebalance the uk's economy. but the project has faced criticism for being over budget and behind schedule. the government will announce its final decision on the scheme next month. up next, news briefing. we'll take you through ther stories making headlines in the global news media today, including:

more than 80 british citizens are on a flight back to the uk from wuhan — the chinese city at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak. they are due to touch down at raf brize norton at lunchtime, before spending the next two weeks in quarantine. in china, officals say more than 200 people have now died, and the world health organization has declared a global emergency. here's simonjones. finally on their way home, 83 britons along with 27 foreign nationals, some posting pictures of the journey on social media. the flight to raf brize norton delayed by several hours to allow as many as possible to get to the airport following some confusion for mixed nationality families. following some confusion for mixed nationality familieslj am mixed nationality families.” am natalie and mrs jamie. natalie francis is british but a son has a chinese passport. they got a last—minute message from uk officials. they called us from uk officials. they called us about 20 minutes ago and said that there is a good

guarantee that they will allow jamie on the plane. for other families, though, the call came too late. adam bridgeman, who has a chinese wife and a newborn baby, remains in will hand. —— wuhan. here at the foreign office, there will no doubt be a sense of relief that they've managed to fly the first british citizens out of wuhan. there had been a sense of anger amongst those stranded there that initially the advice from officials here was that they should leave of their own accord, even though much of the area was incomplete down. those flown home will be taken to arrow park hospital on the wirral. they will spend 1a days in quarantine on former staff accommodation blocks. the world health organization has now declared a global emergency but it stresses this unprecedented out rate was being met with unprecedented response. simon jones, bbc news. for more on that story, breakfast is at 6am with naga munchetty and charlie stayt.

this is the briefing from bbc news. the latest headlines: britain is just hours away from formally leaving the eu. borisjohnson will later describe brexit as a moment of national renewal. with more than 200 deaths in china and cases in 18 other countries coronavirus has been declared a global health emergency. now it's time to look at the stories that are making the headlines. we begin with the telegraph. its frontpage, like many others, is devoted to 11pm tonight — when the uk leaves the eu. the paper says this is not an end but a beginning and the guardian calls britain's exit

the biggest gamble in a generation, and the national tells europe to leave a light on for scotland. the other story still dominating the front pages around the world, coronavirus. the japan times reveals that chinese tourists are being shunned amid virus fears. on to business matters, the new york times reveals better than expected profits for amazon following increased sales over christmas despite spending heavily on high—speed delivery services for its prime members. and the bbc news online is reporting that the controversial commentator katie hopkins has had her twitter account suspended for violating its anti—hate policy. so let's begin. with me is fiona cincotta, senior market analyst with spread betting company city index. good company city index. morning to you and thanks for good morning to you and thanks for coming in at this ungodly hourin for coming in at this ungodly hour in the morning! for us