hello and welcome to dateline london. i'm carrie gracie. this week: children die in the snows of northwest syria. will anyone do anything to stop a new grim chapter in this tragedy? a brutal and messy government reshuffle demonstrates the maxim that a week is a long time in british politics. and all sides agree that ireland has a new electoral landscape. but who will actually govern? that remains shrouded in fog. my guests today: agnes poirier of french news weekly l'express. irish writer brian o'connell.

veteran new york times reporterjohn fischer burns. political commentator steve richards. welcome to you all. the syrian war will soon go into a 10th year with so much suffering for civilians that it's hard to imagine there could be a new low. but the current assault against idlib, syria's last rebel held enclave, is a humanitarian catastrophe. the united nations says that many of the 800 000 people fleeing the town are children and some are now dying in sub—zero temperatures. john, can you start us off on theirs, damascus says that it is attempting to eradicate the terrorist threat in north—west syria right now. what is as strategic objectives as it also bombs at schools, hospitals, shops?” objectives as it also bombs at schools, hospitals, shops? i like to a nswer schools, hospitals, shops? i like to answer you something of a personal

apology, like so many people who see this devastation on the nightly news, it makes me want to weep. and with a particularly personal edge to it because i was among those who felt in 2003 that toppling saddam hussein at an acceptable cost would bea hussein at an acceptable cost would be a good idea. we now see 17 years later what a complete catastrophe was triggered by the american invasion of iraq. a you trace serine events invasion of iraq. a you trace serine eve nts ba ck invasion of iraq. a you trace serine events back to absolutely, the times that the americans invaded syria was a lwa ys that the americans invaded syria was always a brutal dictatorship, but nobody could have imagined then the catastrophe that has ensured. as a matter of fact, when i was running the new york times operation in baghdad with my wife, it was —— there was an underground railroad by which we help staff members who wa nted which we help staff members who wanted to get out of the devastation

of iraq, the safe place to go was syria. fortunately some of them, not all of them, got out of syria and went west to the united states or the united kingdom, but many didn't and got caught up in all this. when you think of the vast expenditure of money, trillions of dollars thousands of american soldiers who have died, that it should come to this with the united states essentially standing on the sidelines by its own choice, i think it is an absolute tragedy. we in the us have the financial means and we still have enough muscle, diplomatic muscle to do something about this, and it's muscle to do something about this, and its past time that we did it. we will come back to that there a moment, the western role. sticking with the now, in terms of those people suffering in north—west syria, some of them, the children weren't even born when the 2003 invasion happen. they need a solution and desperately need a

solution and desperately need a solution now. what is the syrian strategic move there? is it simply to regain all that territory as fast as possible whatever the cost? of course, add whatever the cost. we have seen before with his use of chemical weapons, the barrel bombing from helicopters and so forth which continued even this week, we saw a helicopter being shot down average bean barrel borrowing summer over idlib —— barrel bombing. i think there is no limit to the brutality ofa sad, there is no limit to the brutality of a sad, with his curious north london shiners, is prepared to a spouse —— assad. the key now is moscow. white mount moscow, and brian, let me ask you about turkey. many of these refugees are heading north and coming to a close turkish border. is there any hope that turkey will budge? 0bviously

border. is there any hope that turkey will budge? obviously it already has nearly 4 million refugees, playing host to them. but here are more in desperate need. refugees, playing host to them. but here are more in desperate needlj don't here are more in desperate need.” don't think the turks will be prepared to open that border. as you say, they have got around 4 million syrians in their country already. since december, ithink syrians in their country already. since december, i think it is something like 800,000, over three quarters of a million anyway, have moved north and are all being funnelled into that little north—western bit of syria. this is, as faras north—western bit of syria. this is, as far as assad is concerned, the endgame, and he is not going to stop, asjohn suggested there. the only thing that can stop him as vladimir putin. lets talk about that... put in an earlier one, between them they have the power to do it. the west is standing on the

sidelines, the germans have talked about a safe zone which is a possibility on the border i don't think, as david miliband suggested this morning, i don't think anything will work without a ceasefire first. may the british for signing —— these people are there because they are fleeing shelling and air strikes. until that stops, they are not going to stop. more and more people are going to... a ceasefire has to come first. the cruel irony is that we almost did something in 2013, and we could have, you could have been more efficient at the time, but the uk parliament voted against it. as a result, 0bama stood back and said well, we're not going to go. the french president at the time said

yes, because he didn't have to ask the permission of the national assembly. we miss that moment and 110w assembly. we miss that moment and now we look completely, utterly powerless. wright interestingly, the current french president is trying to knock heads together in europe over strategic planning... he said you can be both weak and defined at the munich international security conference, it is time for dialogue with russia. hill that is macron‘s foreign policy, new strategy. with russia. hill that is macron‘s foreign policy, new strategym with russia. hill that is macron‘s foreign policy, new strategy. if you look at the un, the solution can sometimes be found. at the security council, they will have russia, —— look at the un, it has been successful in the past. think about bosnia, of course it is a different case because america was actually bombing one side of the story, but

in cyprus, the un is very good at peacekeeping. not at peace making. in that civil war there is no peace to keep. the un role... for un special envoys. there is a current one, forgotten about him, trying to secure a new constitution, but nobody cares because he is not going to achieve anything. stephen, on the question of where does this leave these so—called international rules —based order? because as agnes has explained, the un is ineffective on this at the moment. the us, asjohn has explained, is nowhere to be seen. has explained, is nowhere to be seen. and as brian has been saying, really, it is russia and turkey who are making the run—in with syria and iran, in terms of diplomacy. where is the rule base... ? the purse to me is that you said the so—called rules based order. it has always

been partly mythological. in reference to the war in iraq, that didn't get the famous second un resolution to reap legally give it the —— the rules based order, where the —— the rules based order, where the sick dominic ball politics? in this case it is much more complicated. what form should intervention to? i slightly disagree with agnes about the 2013 moment, 0bama has always insisted retrospectively he was pleased it didn't happen, because it wouldn't have worked. that the targeting would not have been decisive. it reflects also that british boat which went against and 2013, a reflection of what had happened in iraq and the ineffectiveness and counter productivity of intervention, so how do you intervene? intervention, so how do you intervene ? we intervention, so how do you intervene? we are at the moment when evenif intervene? we are at the moment when even if there was an answer to that, the us undertrump even if there was an answer to that, the us under trump are keeping their distance to the point of

indifference. the eu can play a mediating role, but doesn't have its own foreign policy. britain has opted to become a sort of isolated island on its own. that is why vladimir putin is absolutely the key, because he has got the military might and the pool over assad, so he is the figure... trump two to be critical in this. we have heard a great dealfrom him and critical in this. we have heard a great deal from him and resetting relationships with russia, it hasn't advanced very far. the us still has enormous influence, if it chooses to use it. it doesn't choose to use it because... the american public wants out. they are tired of seeing american boys killed, they are tired of the $2 trillion plus costs... if there is anybody who caused vladimir putin to think again, it would be trump, and if i may say so... it

gives a bit of space perhaps... be british prime minister. in my estimation, most useful endeavours in international affairs of the second world war have involved one principal condition, which is the president of the united states and the prime minister of the united kingdom should act in concert in pursuit of a common end. if they chose to use their positions as a bully pulpit to engender public opinion, a wave of public opinion and use their influence with vladimir putin, which would still be considerable, maybe that would be the way to turn this thing around. in the absence of that, the negotiations between turkey and mr vladimir putin will be in moscow this coming week, so we will watch this coming week, so we will watch this space there. we need to move on. last week a british prime minister told his government it was time to deliver. that's easier said than done. this government has to deliver not just brexit but also the levelling up that borisjohnson promised disadvantaged areas of the country in exchange for their votes.

and whether by accident or design, he's just lost a key player in his delivery team. steve, was it an accident or design? i think it was an accident, i think he hoped the chancellor, as was sajid javid, which stay in post, but acce pt sajid javid, which stay in post, but accept the humiliation of sacking all his special advisers. this is a very interesting development. 0n all his special advisers. this is a very interesting development. on one level, it is soap opera. and a familiar one level, it is soap opera. and a familiarone in level, it is soap opera. and a familiar one in british politics. it is downing street senior advisor is downing street senior advisers not liking the chancellor's special advisers and just wanting to prevail over them advisers and just wanting to prevail overthem and advisers and just wanting to prevail over them and get rid of them. on another level, it is much deeper. here is at number ten, theoretically anyway, pursuing spend, spend, spend, boris, infrastructure, infrastructure, railways, bridges, huge money into the nhs. and the

treasury will be instinctively cautious. and the treasury on one level is more searching the numerically powerful than number ten. johnson has policy advisers, he hasn't got a big economics department working with them. the chancellor has the whole of the might of the treasury. this has been an attempt to redress that balance. 0ther prime ministers have tried it, it has never worked. but there is a theoretical merit in addressing that imbalance, because number ten theoretical merit in addressing that imbalance, because numberten want to spend, spend, spend. and they have got to have the treasury on board. we are in a very interesting position, a lot of the conservative party remains committed to a kind of thatcherite approach to economics, but they are pledging to do something very different. they haven't explained how, where the money is going to come from. it is a very interesting junction in british politics, and hovering over it all still, brexit. and whether that so dementia is the economy. brian,

where they stand ? dementia is the economy. brian, where they stand? i agree with everything that steve said. what i doubt is that your average voter... this is really for political scientists and political layers and political correspondence... i think your average political correspondence... i think your ave rage voter political correspondence... i think your average voter doesn't really care, as long as the railway gets belt or the universal credit get specs or what tears or housing or the health service and so on. having said that, i think that boris johnson does love infrastructure, he loves the idea of h52 and, if it works for him, if he can do it without squeezing the lemon tell the, what is at the garden grown used to say? by increasing taxes, it will be fine —— mac gordon brown used to say? as it comes to the trade talks on the get deep into those and realise how tough it will

be, borisjohnson will those and realise how tough it will be, boris johnson will need a those and realise how tough it will be, borisjohnson will need a bridge ora be, borisjohnson will need a bridge or a railway to say look at this nice new shiny thing over here, don't worry about that, that will be fine, we have our sovereignty back, thatis fine, we have our sovereignty back, that is why we are building a railway even if it is the chinese or whoever. how do you like the bridge? i don't think it will work. this is the mayor of london who decided to spend... agnes, how credible is this going to be with the market?” spend... agnes, how credible is this going to be with the market? i don't know but what i know is that it is watch very keenly by the french right, because how red a tory can you be? borisjohnson manages to be that sort of right wing figure, he has really achieved something, and it really gives ideas not only to probably the french right, but to all those centre—right parties that have sort of collapsed and disappeared in the last few years.

what is the idea that it gives them? well, the fact that you are socially conservative, but the politics, at least on the economy, is going left. posterity and all those public services that people are really relying on and one more of... you could talk about the yellow vest movement in france, they want more public services, is it possible any country that actually gives so much public service, more than any other country in europe? this sort of red tourism is very interesting, because you need to finance it. they might achieve something that labour actually wanted to do. are they going to go french and have a mansion taxcosplay will have to either borrow, but perhaps borrow for tax the rich? fury will come

from traditional conservatives who just want low taxes and smaller government. and fascinating to watch. john, you can only borrow to spend rather than tax to spend a fruitless... if rates are low, becomes a lot harder and if you're doing long—term spending on bridges or railways or whatever it is two” have a narrow its perspective on this. in boris johnson have a narrow its perspective on this. in borisjohnson we have a prime minister who has famously and single—handedly on this one a sweeping election victory with a fairly clearly stated programme about levelling up in the northern powerhouse. he needs to be in control of his government. what he did in the case of mr sajid javid the other day was dramatic, but it does at least put him squarely in control of fiscal and economic policy, and i think that he is watching the clock. five years, and some people suggest ten, unless the

labour party can put its house in order, five years is going to go by very quickly, you may find himself at the end of this year with an empress of his negotiations with europe. he needs to show progress —— empires of his negotiations. it seems churlish to deny him the right that any prime minister has to have a firm control of his own government. healthcare and housing. two of the great public grievances that triggered an electoral earthquake in ireland last weekend. many voters turned away from the familiar two horse politics of fine gael and fianna fail to support the nationalist party sinn fein. to support the nationalist but neither sinn fein nor any other party has enough seats to govern alone. so what next? it will be difficult for anyone to form a government. sinn fein don't

have the numbers. they didn't run enough candidates. if they had run twice as many of properly would have got twice as many seats. they did exceptionally well. the got the larger share of the popular vote, although they got one seat less than fianna fail did. even if you put all the other independence together in the other independence together in the left—wing smaller parties together, you still don't get to an overall majority. you have to go into power with fianna fail. they are still saying they want it. fine gael have also said they won't do it, and they do mean it. the big question in irish politics now is, can martin be persuaded to go into some sort of agreement with sinn fein, i promised voters that he wouldn't? tell us briefly why wouldn't? tell us briefly why wouldn't he? there is this kind of

bogeyman about history and ira lengths, this is a relatable woman who takes tv camera shopping with her. she really and ira threat? no. most of the support that led to the surge came from people under 35, who we re very surge came from people under 35, who we re very young surge came from people under 35, who were very young when the good friday agreement was signed. people who are 60-65, agreement was signed. people who are 60—65, you know, do still feel that that link that you talk about to the ira and the past would stop them voting. but for me, martin, the leader of fianna fail, the big problem is that their policy agenda is not compatible. sinn fein are a left—wing party, fianna fail art centre, centre—right party. to

tackle the problem is that mid—on has been accusing the other parties of ignoring, she will have to put up taxes, housing, talking about crumbling public health service, the high cost of childcare. apparently ireland has amongst the highest childcare costs in europe. all of those will require more money, that has to come from taxation... stephen, shirley the point that all of those tweedledee and tweedledum, as sinn fein recalled, old—style parties, they have to respond to what they both aside, even if they don't like sinn fein, don't they? the result is a challenge for all the parties, because i know brian thinks could well be another general election if they cannot form a government in the coming weeks. the result remind me, or certainly the performance of sinn fein, ready me a bit of the british election in 2017,

when no one expected jeremy corbyn and labourthen to when no one expected jeremy corbyn and labour then to do as well as they did in that election. and it was over, younger people voting about housing, tuition fees at universities and so on. and a promise of sort of radical change on that agenda. so the thing that they have to address is, can they retain this momentum? because corbyn, they lost it afterwards. for the other parties, i bet there will be, there is another election, in much greater focus on pledging various things to address the concerns of under 35 is, because that is clearly where sinn fein sought. i was speaking to a very senior figure in the snp the other day, they made an interesting observation or pose the question, why is that the parties of the left who also advocate a national agenda, independence of various forms, do well, whereas other parties on the left don't? i know you don't think

that played a big part in the sinn fein success, but what the snp, which is an effective party of the left, and sinn fein are nationalist parties doing well, and other left parties doing well, and other left parties are doing badly. i think thatis parties are doing badly. i think that is interesting. my mac lets go back to brian briefly on that question of the unification agenda. that's been the chief pledge of sinn fein, the going to insist on a referendum if they move into some sort of coalition? it wasn't a huge issue on the doorsteps. all the other stuff like housing was the big issue. if you asked mcdonald's, she would say we have a five year plan, going to do it properly not next year or thereafter, it will take five years. according to the rules, medially mcdonald's, even if she was taoiseach, couldn't decide if the people of northern ireland should or shouldn't hold a referendum, that is

the british government, and under the british government, and under the good friday agreement the british government will only do that, according to the wording of the agreement, if there is a possibility that more people may wa nt possibility that more people may want reunification than not. lets leave that issue and go back in a way to what stephen was saying, which i think resonates with what you're saying about the red right—wing, in a way the establishment parties have got to think about how to appeal to what is a left—wing national sport. completely. it is interesting that you don't think unity had anything to do... sign the main reason is social. it looks as if, i remember very welljust social. it looks as if, i remember very well just after the referendum on brexit in 2016, almost four years ago, we thought on the continent that the logic, the

inherent and historical logic to brexit was, the independence of scotland. which sounded completely fantastical at the time. the unification of ireland, and now it is not a fancy any more, it is a growing possibility. what the northern irish voters would be voting on, is not only the unity of ireland, but de facto a second referendum on brexit. .. ireland, but de facto a second referendum on brexit... 0f ireland, but de facto a second referendum on brexit... of course, but is very different from the scottish, who will have to go through... joining the eu. that is interesting. everyone is nodding here, we have 30 seconds left, john? ifi here, we have 30 seconds left, john? if i can take license, given my scottish and irish heritage, there could be worse outcomes from ireland for the next year or so, like when you don't have a government and muddle through. it does strike me as

somewhat odd that the tweedledum tweedledee parties in ireland are electing to sit down with sinn fein north of the border... that's it for dateline london for this week — we're back next week at the same time. goodbye. very strong winds across parts of the uk, but also heavy rain. that is what the met office has issued, an

amber warning for the potential of significant flooding in some parts of the country. this is the satellite picture from earlier on. this band of cloud working across the atlantic, this curl developing here and a rapidly developing area of low pressure which has been named storm dennis. it is bringing very wet weather indeed, a really soggy afternoon for many spots, with some very heavy and persistent burst of rain. very strong and gusty winds, perhaps something a little brighter for western scotland and northern ireland later on in the afternoon. in terms of the whengoes, 50—60 miles an hour, but parts of the north and host, gusts of 70 mph or even more. it is a mild one, temperatures between 10—14d. remember, we're going to have that wind and rain, so it won't feel to great out there at all. through this evening and tonight, rain across england and wales. a narrow band of torrential downpours with gusty winds could cause some damage.

northern ireland and scotland, clear spells but wintry showers well, a chilly night year. an exceptionally mild one for the south at 12—13d, but a wet start for much of england and wales tomorrow. the rain dragging its heels through tomorrow, there could be flooding here. further north and west, a brighter day was some sunshine. a scattering of showers to, when three of the high ground in the north. not quite as when they are today, still pretty gusty out there. your temperature is a little bit lower by the stage, 6-10d a little bit lower by the stage, 6—10d through the middle tomorrow afternoon. tomorrow night, the wind is likely to pick up again across parts of scotland as storm dennis, our area of low pressure passes north. gus of send him —— cost of 70 miles an houror north. gus of send him —— cost of 70 miles an hour or more. protect later populated places like glasgow and edinburgh. we have the wind, the rain, and these areas are the spot covered by that met office amber warning. it will be wetjust about

wherever you are. into the start of next week, a little quieter, stays windy but not as windy, with some sunshine and showers. this is bbc news, i'm shaun ley. the headlines at 12pm... the uk braces itself for storm dennis — weather warnings are in place for many parts of the uk — and the army has been deployed in west yorkshire the army are on their way, they are going to be deployed along the valley where they are needed. so, you know, we will see when they arrive. there is lots of, there's the flood warden groups along the valley, right the way from elland all the way up to todmorden. they're going to be out all day. the storm is scuppering travel plans for many — hundreds of flights have been cancelled and train services are disrupted. manchester city say they'll appeal against their ban from european competitions for the next two seasons — after they were found to have broken financial fair play rules. the uk has held talks with china over giving beijing's state—owned