is to end his bid for the white house. his decision to drop out comes just ahead of what's known as super tuesday, when m states hold primaries. his withdrawal is likely to benefit the campaign ofjoe biden. scientists in the united states say the covid—19 virus may have been spreading undetected in washington state for the last six weeks, infecting up to 1500 people. a state of emergency has been declared. one man is now confirmed to have died from the virus in the us. several thousand migrants are demanding to be allowed to cross into greece, after turkey announced it would no longer stop people trying to enter the european union. turkey is seeking western support for its operations in syria. an extraordinary meeting of eu foreign ministers has been called at athens‘ request.

now on bbc news, it's time for dateline london. hello, and welcome to dateline london. i'm carrie gracie. this week: wake up, get ready, coronavirus is coming — the message from the world health organization to governments everywhere. hopes of stopping the new virus at national borders all but vanished over the past week — and global financial markets reacted accordingly. but if we can't stop this coronavirus, can we slow it down? my guests today: stefanie bolzen of die welt. american journalist, henry chu. iain martin of the london times. mina al—oraibi, editor of the national — a news service for the middle east.

i want to start by looking at how different countries and different regions are handling it so far. let's start with iran and the middle east. iran, marks out of ten? two at best. it's really concerning that the government has not been straight with how far the cases there has spread. cases have come to iraq and lebanon through iran because people were not tested. this kind of hiding the scale of the problem. bbc persian, for example, has been able to verify deaths of about 210 people, whereas, the government until recently has been insisting it is only 3a and dismissing media reports that say otherwise. it's not so much about the number of deaths, but much more being indicative of a country not playing it straight, therefore, the ability to spread to other countries. cases have cropped up in afghanistan, also originated from iran. these are vulnerable countries iraq, syria, afghanistan — huge numbers of displaced people. if it catches on there,

it will be incredibly difficult to try and help these people, save these people but also stop the spread. unfortunately, the iranian government, which leads on from what we saw at the beginning of the year with the ukrainian jetliner, also not being straight about how that jetliner was struck down. they have to be transparentand working with governments in the region and also globally. you can't hide these important figures. we'll come back to china in a moment on transparency. let's deal with south korea, now the country with the largest number of growing infections after china. how well are they doing? i think they are trying to take the steps that they can as a democratic society, for example, closing schools. which japan is doing as well. with transparency, i feel there is a government where we can have more confidence in the figures being put out and the measures put in place. moreso than, say, china.

although, they had a difficulty with a secretive christian sect, slowing things up initially. correct, transparency of the people on the ground is perhaps a different issue from what the government is trying to do. also, in the region, indonesia, another largely and densely populated country has denied that it has infections. a little hard to believe at this point. a mixed picture in that region. europe — italy currently the centre of the problem in europe? northern italy, venice. you can see almost day by day how it is creeping up northwards, also to germany. i wasjust in germany, cologne, at a regional festival, there were millions of people on the street and parties. actually, there is a very small town between cologne and the dutch border, there they have 37 people already

infected, two persons i think are really seriously ill. they got ill at a carnival party. i attended those. of course, you have to make a personal choice. but it's these kind of mass gatherings which are now something that we all look at and get very worried about. yet you weren't wary enough to not go? it was five days ago. today, i probably wouldn't go. five days ago, it was only in northern italy, but it's spreading very quickly. the uk are somewhat in the european camp. i want you to look at the us for us, that is a country with unexplained cases, they can't trace the contact. also, the political leadership, donald trump talking slightly at odds with his public health officials? that makes the us in this story possibly one of the most troubling areas to look at because it appears as though the administration is going to try a rather dangerous experiment,

which is for the president and the senior leadership to be at odds with the healthcare establishment and the scientific establishment. now, you saw last week the president's tweets and statements from the administration that appear to suggest that they see this in terms of various television networks trying to do down the president's ratings, and i don't really think that is what this crisis is about. of course, the trump's re—election rests on on a booming stock market, we will talk later what has happened to the markets, but he is desperately worried. you would hope — traditionally it's been the case with previous american presidents — that when you get a crisis like this, that america is a country that has leaders that want to show leadership, rather than picking fights with scientists. if i can interject something about that. it is true that trump is trying to minimise this crisis. even on friday, he was already

saying this is all a bit of a hoax perpetrated by the democrats. that confidence is surging in the economy, when we saw wall street have it's biggest weekly loss in more than decade. but because the usa is a federal system, you do have states tackling the problem with their own health department. i'm from california, it has about half the reported infections, i think it is doing a betterjob than the federal government as a whole in terms of trying to walk the line between overreacting and under reacting to a public health crisis. there are now some unexplained infections, but that means california is now monitoring more people than it did before, it is expanding its testing regime. a bit of a mixed picture, but what is coming out of washington is definitely troubling. henry, can you take us to possibly another glimmer of hope, that the number of new infections is going down in china? do you think there is a sense of china beginning to turn a corner?

i think there has been a sense like that over the past few days already, that the lockdown on hubei province, the epicentre, has been effective. now we see that this is china beginning to pat itself on its back for the measures it's taking. while, to some degree, that's true — to another degree, it is also containing a fire that it helped start and fan in the first place by not learning the lessons of sars in 2003, and covering up these infections in the beginning. i think you have to weigh those two against each other to determine how china has performed. in terms of raising awareness, taking necessary precautions but also not raising the alarm. i think is a difficult decision for officials, but it's also been difficult for us asjournalist. absolutely, coronavirus is the most read topic on our websites since the beginning of the year. in some way, we have to keep informing people, but at the same time, you don't want to alarm people.

the decision about schools, in the uae, the first arab country that declared it had coronavirus patients, then five people have actually recovered. they have been really good about briefing us about who is recovering, because i think it's a really important to get the information out. yes, there is about a 2.2% death rate, it is concerning but not at the rate of 10—15% where people would lose control. at the same time, talking about people who do recover. they think that alarmism rattles markets, people are scared, at the same time, it really important to say, these are the people precautions you can take, but you can also claim some semblance of control over your life. it brings us of the questions about relating to the public — trust, transparency, conviction in... communicating effectively in messaging. henry alluded to the way the chinese

system is beginning to take credit and deliver a message about their superior system in dealing in this top—down effective way, but the liberal democracies will take a different view of some of their strengths? i must say, iam highly critical of china. why did it become so big in the first place? apparently, the chinese officials were not very keen to be transparent about it. i would think, in europe, governments in general are trying to be very transparent. at the same time, you get the sense they are cautious to not overreact because they do not want to cause panic, also very difficult. they can be blamed afterwards for not being strict enough with the measures. then again, it's a question of whether you live in a centralised country, or like germany, one which is highly federalised so decisions can be taken at a very local level. 0ne village will close the school, another one will not. 0ne town will stop a train, another will not. it is a very complex situation and it depends on your institutional framework.

it is also about truth telling. if the chinese government now wants us to believe it is on top of this — i certainly hope that is the case, and a lot of indications suggest they have turned a corner — but does that mean they were telling the truth two months ago, or telling the truth now? we know better than any one it is an autocratic system, it is a culture in which people are not encouraged to speak the truth if it conflicts with what the powerful centre commands. i think people are right to be sceptical about what china is saying now, because what the government was saying a few weeks ago turns out to be wrong. speaking to iain‘s point, it has been very interesting in china that there has been a cover—up and denial until the point where it can no longer be denied? i think what is dangerous about this

narrative of congratulating china — it has taken very strong measures recently, that is incontestable — is the core area that a liberal, democratic state could not mount an effective response in quite the same way. but in the us, we have emergency protocols, there can be declarations of emergency, use of greater powers sparingly — which is why they are called emergency protocols. that can help contain and mitigate the effects of coronavirus. whereas in china, this is a system that arrogates to itself these powers all the time. i think that is a big difference to point out between the two institutional frameworks. let's talk about the science. i know none of you are virologists or epidemiologists, but on the other hand, we all have to, as journalists and citizens, get on top of our understanding of the science up to a point. i want to ask you about the point

of the measures we have been talking, to slow infection rates. two months in, do we know enough about this virus itself to choose the best weapons with which to deal that? it is very difficult for western governments because the chinese have done something which is clearly within frame of reference, complete lockdown. i think if you were to try that in a major european city like paris, london or berlin, it would be very difficult. we do know that we have become, since sars, in the last 20 years or so, even more mobile globally. if you look at how this could be spread, in terms of europe, whether it has really taken hold, it is the case the number of flights globally has doubled since sars 17 years ago. the pace of technical change, the amount of travel that we do, the opportunities for this to spread

at speed and mutate, has increased in the last 20 years. we should remember this is not new. this is the story of the last 100 years or so since the great flu pandemic after the first world war. this is something which lots of scientists have warned about, and have seen and in the context of other global outbreaks. it is one of the major downsides of globalisation, and it is very, very difficult to deal with. and yet, mina, there is also mobility of information. is the public health messaging, in so far as we understand the virus — how to beat it with barriers, masks, hygiene, social distancing and so on — are those messages getting out effectively to communities in your part of the world? i think globally they are getting out effectively. in our part of the world, absolutely. again, it depends on the country,

but you get much more regular public briefings than you would have had five years ago. public officials are more used to speaking to their constituents. again, you get countries like iran where the information is not necessarily accurate. the incredible thing, of course, is social media. the world health organization has messages going out on facebook, twitter, and they are actually paying and promoting for these ads to come out. google has been great in terms of, if you look up coronavirus, the first thing that comes up is the world health organization. i think five, six years ago, someone would have tweaked the algorithm and search engine optimisation to get the clicks. you're actually getting much more sensible technological advances of how do we mobilise in global emergencies like this. one thing to keep in context as well, it was pointed out to me, at this point, we don't really know the number of infections around the world, it could be vastly more than we are relies. while that is not a good thing in terms of absolute number, it actually can be a hopeful sign in that we would know about it if the mortality rate was much greater. if these are not actually causing deaths, it shows the mortality rate

is much lower than we have so far seen. that could be a piece of good news. one of the things that we wait to see. it is complicated by more good news, all the early indications suggest that 80% of those who catch this will suffer really mild symptoms. even to the extent that they don't know that they carry it. the concern is that if they are right, if about 50% of the population of the uk that can be infected, if the death rate is 1%, maybe even 2% — those are still huge numbers of potential deaths. henry, coming back to china, one of the things that we will see over time in that giant petri dish, as it were, is that when people do

start going a back to normality — how much infection there is then when the quarantine is over. in china, you have some of the most densely populated cities on warth, where there is a lot of social mixing, running up against each other all the time. but i think will be the further test of where we see this virus going. there can be plenty of infections that we just don't know anything about, they willjust disappear. one thing about the science that concerns me is people thinking that these surgical mass will keep you safe for the longest time. some doctors say they will only last for about 20 minutes, at best, six hours, because they are quite loose—fitting. you can understand people are buying them to make sure they are covered, but in some ways, it can gather more germs, you knw, taken on and off. i think that is one of those

scientific issues not clearly stated for people. there are others that we just don't have time to list all of now. let's move on to the economic impact, and the political, cultural impact. stefanie, saw a massive sell—off on global markets over the past week as they corrected enormously. factories possibly closing down, transport links suspended around the world, and the unpredictability that we will be talking about? absolutely, we don't even know how things will be tomorrow, next week. you see currencies going down. germany is highly dependent on trade with china, for example, i think there was a calculation that even if the chinese gdp dopped by 1%, that will be a gdp drop in germany of 0.2%. it will have a knock—on effect on everything, it feels like we are back in the 2008 financial crash times, but somehow, even more unpredictable

as to what is going to happen next. notable that its those shares most vulnerable to cross—border travel, cross—border trade, events where people come together in densely—packed spaces — these are all suffering the biggest hits? yes. sports, travel, retail. also, look at what is happening with the financial system, because it depends on those businesses still bringing money for their revenues. if people are no longer buying and travelling in at the same way, that is the thing that concerns the authorities the most at the end of last week. that is what is happening underneath the surface. they are stress testing and looking at how solid the banking system is, because it wouldn't take that much. for example, in the euro zone, where there are already

existing banking problems, if you see a collapse in economic activity — which hopefully will not happen. hopefully, this dissipates, the weather warms up and things improve. there are some indications china is starting getting back to work, starting to see production tip up. people should not think it is the apocalypse, but the authorities are deeply concerned. i think also it goes beyond what we might think of as regular consumer products, let say from china, an iphone or nike shoes. a friend of mine who works in a hospital in california says because the drug manufacturing in china is so big, they are witnessing shortages now in the us. not necessarily because of the coronavirus, just in general, because china is such a big workshop for the world in so many different ways. perhaps a silver lining that may come out of this, economically speaking, maybe governments and economists will stop obsessing about growth and consumption in quite the same

way we have in the past, given the environmental questions looming over us and other issues that come from purely looking at growth as the measure of the health of the global economy. there is the beginnings of a trend with government starting to talk about a re—shoring. we have become very dependent, particularly in europe, on that trade with emerging giants like china. so a country like china, it used to be britain's 29th biggest for exports, it is now fourth. for all sorts of reasons, i think you will start to see, after this pandemic if that is what it is, people becoming much more fashionable to try and re—shore some manufacturing back to europe.

i am worried about that because it comes after such tensions between the us and china, this trade war, more protectionism, a decoupling from china. this almost becomes an excuse in certain politcal circles, where it becomes politicised, and therefore, an excuse for saying, "actually, look, things from china, bad. "we don't want it, let's decouple even more. " because of the political climate we have been in for the past couple of years. interestingly, donald trump, in the last week or so, it seems to have dawned on him. looking at some of his tweets, he's actually saying, "i didn't mean to completely cancel globalisation — global trade really matters. " it's almost like it's an election year! stefanie, everyone is trying to stay positive about the economy and open minded about the prospects of damage limitation in relation to coronavirus. are you agreeing with iain and henry on that? do you think we are bound for a limitation of growth,

as we are hearing from bankers and economists, or do you think it is potentially worse? i'm no economist, but before coronavirus, there was already a recession looming in germany, growth was going down. what happens germany then affects what happens in the rest of euro zone and eu. on top of that, the uncertainties of brexit, it was going to happen this year, how frictionless trade will continue in europe or not. somehow feeding into a situation that was already volatile, and could make it worse. i'm pretty pessimistic, to be honest. the potential upside, the good news, is that if this is relatively brief and the weather warms up and things improve and it does not turn into a pandemic, all the historical evidence is that you then get a very rapid bounce back, and you get a huge surge in demand as people get back to work and life returns to normal.

we also have quite a few events on the calendar that people need to peer down the months and see. is there going to be the hajj? is there going to be tokyo olympics, the normal campaigning you see around the us elections? mina, the hajj? well, saudi arabia has stopped the umrah, which is the mini pilgrimage. i can't remember a time when that's actually happened, so that a big indicator that the saudis are like, "we have to close the doors." the problem during the hajj is that most people get meningitis shots anyway, because you have problems with meningitis and other diseases that are transmitted. i imagine that if this is not under control by april, may, they will have to be reconside, and they may very well really limit the numbers. saying, from each country, we can only have x amount. so really limit them and put people into quarantine almost. so, your hajj journey, instead of taking a week out, do you take a month?

i can't imagine them cancelling it altogether, they can't. but i think they will really limit it. they have to make those decisions soon. you were mentioning going to the carnival. churches, mosques, sports events, we look through april and may, are they all going to start unfolding in front of our eyes? the news from europe and germany last night, one event after the other is being cancelled. the international tourism fair in germany was cancelled last night. things like the olympics, of course, a massive question. there have been talks for a long time whether you can actually have it. it is a really big question, is it foing to become a pandemic or not? it is the responsibility of the governments to take those decisions. henry, i want to ask you about something slightly more broader and cultural. xenophobia, we have seen a big

problem in relation to ethnic chinese citizens abroad. have you felt it? funny that you ask, i was just back in the us and flying. i was very conscious of the fact that i was trying to remain looking healthy at all times and not coughing or sniffling on the flight. they were already people with surgical masks on, people taking precautions. i think there has been a reported drop in, for example, people going to chinese restaurants, just feeling that this is somehow so connected with china that all chinese people of any heritage, stripe or background are somehow infected. that was also exarcebated in some ways in the us by trump's travel restrictions on people entering from china. by that measure now, we should be talking about travel restrictions on people from italy, south korea. time for one last point. iain, picking up from what henry just said, it is not some weird them

and is thing any more, it is us and us. this is a virus potentially anywhere? this is globalisation in action, the world has been speeding up, we travel more, human being are social animals. globalisation, a positive thing, comes with a downside. you now hopefully, hopefully, will see coordinated global action to deal with it now. let's end on a high note. thank you all very much, a fascinating discussion, i hope you felt the same. thanks forjoining us. we're back next week at the same time. goodbye.

good morning. overall, nowhere near as wet or as windy through this coming week as we've seen over the past few weeks. not completely dry, however, we've showers through the night and that will lead to icy conditions through the morning with temperatures close to freezing. rain and even wet snow mixed into parts of east anglia and the south bursting before that clears and the sunshine returns. showers in the north and west, mixture of rain, hail, sleet and snow and snow in places in scotland in particular, on the hills in the west and slightly more showers in the afternoon compared with the morning but that said, not as many as recent days. the winds will be lighter, so fewer showers in eastern parts. many will be dry but for all, reasonably cool but with winds lighter, not feeling too bad for the time of year with temperatures anywhere between five and ten. through into tuesday and wednesday, continuing with the sunshine and showers story. perhaps

more showers around on tuesday stop wednesday, watch out for some rain in the south. but, overall, better thanit in the south. but, overall, better than it has been.

this is bbc news — welcome if you're watching here in the uk or around the globe. i'm maryam moshiri. our top stories: in the us election campaign, ‘mayor‘ pete buttigieg pulls out — it could be a boost forjoe biden‘s campaign. there are concerns the new coronavirus could have been circulating in the us for weeks — up to 1500 people may be infected. turkey sends refugees to europe to try to force backing for its campaign in syria. after the us—taliban agreement, the qatari mediator tells us that outside countries could still wreck the chances