160 virus on thursday. 140 britons remain quarantined aboard a cruise ship off the coast of california, on which 21 people tested positive for coronavirus. and the six nations rugby. england held on to beat wales 33-30 at rugby. england held on to beat wales 33—30 at twickenham. hello, and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be bringing us to what the papers will be bringing us tomorrow. with me arejoe twineham, director of the polling organisation deltapoll, and ru efully, organisation deltapoll, and ruefully, economic adviser at arbuthnot banking. many of tomorrow's front pages are already in. the observer leads with coronavirus, reporting the government is planning emergency legislation allowing people to switch jobs and volunteer to work on the nhs. the sunday times goes with

the nhs. the sunday times goes with the same story and says the government is working on the assumption that covid—19 could kill around 100,000 people in the uk. the sunday express reports that the government has plans to deliver food to coronavirus hotspots. the mail on sunday says the queen doesn't want to be virus to prevent her from carrying out her duties, as the palace plans are to keep her protected. the sunday telegraph contains an interview with the chancellor, who says next week's budget will contain measures to help businesses deal with the virus. the sunday mirror has a tribute to the british man who died from covid—19, after catching it on a caribbean cruise. let's take a look at some of those stories in more detail. let's go to the sunday times to begin with. ruth, quite tall plans for the worst does the virus spreads?” think that is right. they have gone from containment phase, as they called it, when they were trying to contain the thing, to the delay phase, when they are trying to slow down the spread of the virus. there

is apparently going to be some emergency covid—19 bill coming and which will actually give them more powers to deal with the coronavirus. you are talking probably about closing schools, encouraging working from home, banning public meetings and the like, to try and control it. and i must say, even though 100,000 deaths does seem slightly excessive, we have to remind ourselves china has had 80,000 cases, and so far, touch wood, only 3000 deaths, which is high enough, for goodness‘ sake. i think they are right to make arrangements, to prepare for this sort of eventuality, just in case it happens. and if they didn‘t prepare for it and then for some reason it came about, the criticism would be absolutely enormous, in a way, they are damned if they do and damned if they don‘t. but i think they are basically right to do what they are doing. joe? they are putting a numberof things, doing. joe? they are putting a number of things, which is important. 17,000 people on average

have died from seasonal flu over the past five years. the expectation is that around about 100,000 people could die as a result of covid—19. it has been described as the ballpark figure that is about right, according to the experts that the times newspaper has spoken to. at the same time, the newspaper reports that 80% of the population were infected, that could rise to 500,000. once you get to larger numbers, of course, we then have more data about the type of people who are worse affected. so the whole story around this could change is that data becomes available and it is clear or not clear that certain groups, whether it is men or women all the people younger people, how they are affected. what i found interesting was specifically the bit about, in an attempt to show normal life continuing, the prime minister and his fiancee attended the six nations match at twickenham. there has been a discussion about may be sporting events being either

cancelled or conducted behind closed doors, but what is interesting about thatis doors, but what is interesting about that is that carrie simmons, boris johnson's partner, is pregnant. we do not know how covid—19 affects pregnant women. we know that among people with later pregnancies, it does not seem to be affecting them. what about people in early pregnancy? it is one of the questions about this. interesting. ruth, is it helpful to put a number ona ruth, is it helpful to put a number on a potential death toll? as i said, ithink on a potential death toll? as i said, i think 100,000 sounds excessive, really excessive, not least of all because of what has happened in china with all these cases, and it does seem to have a fairly low mortality rate. having said that, i can sympathise with the government for actually making plans to cope with this sort of eventuality, because if they didn‘t, for some reason, it happened, they would be in serious trouble. they‘ve got to make arrangements. would be in serious trouble. they‘ve got to make arrangementsm would be in serious trouble. they‘ve got to make arrangements. it is much better that they prepare for 100,000 tons and than 20,000 people get it, sorry, than 100,000 people get it and they have prepared the 20,000.

is it quite useful, in a way, to prepare the public as well but this might be the eventual figure? prepare the public as well but this might be the eventual figure7m prepare the public as well but this might be the eventual figure? it is possible. i think the point is they are making their preparations, they are making their preparations, they are going to bring in this legislation, let us actually see what happens. but i get the feeling they are reasonably on top of the issue, which is really what we want to know about, isn‘t it? issue, which is really what we want to know about, isn't it? in terms of public response, though, it is about a measured response. it is about not going out and panicking and buying toilet roll. numbers like this can help, but they can also make it worse. it is about how it is dealt with and how that information is absorbed by the general public. we don't want everybody thinking, i am one of the 100,000 people sol don't want everybody thinking, i am one of the 100,000 people so i need to prepare for this and i need to buy all the hand sanitiser and toilet roll. let's go to the front page of the telegraph, its main story is also about coronavirus, but they have an interview with the new chancellor, rishi sunak. a tall orderfor him, isn‘t it? his first budget. he is not daunted. he tells

the paper he is not daunted. well, i will make a note of that. that is a surprise. you can't imagine him saying anything else. "i'm really terrified, i really am, i don‘t want thisjob, thank terrified, i really am, i don‘t want this job, thank you very much". terrified, i really am, i don‘t want thisjob, thank you very much". he is not daunted. he is basically saying they have had to rewrite the budget. the budget is coming in on wednesday and originally the idea was that this was all going to be about investment expenditure, levelling up the regions, there was going to be the national infrastructure plan, et cetera. that has been postponed because basically they have to focus on what they are going to do about the coronavirus. and of course, what rishi sunak is saying is that they will provide help for small businesses in the way of loa ns help for small businesses in the way of loans or something like that, for those small businesses who are actually having troubles because of the outbreak and the economic disruption, because about. and i think that‘s the right thing to do. and i was going to say, i have a little bit of sympathy for the office of budget responsibility because it still has to do is forecast. i know there is a bit of cynicism around this table... surely

not! about the actual accuracy of this forecast. but the 0br one way 01’ this forecast. but the 0br one way or another has to make some kind of assessment about what they think the overall impact will be on the economy, and we will see the product of their labour on wednesday. the economic impact could be large. we have people who are self—employed, people in zero hour contracts, people in zero hour contracts, people who work in the so—called gig economy. they could all be heavily affected by coronavirus, or the impacts of coronavirus, and that is the supply side of the economy. then on the demand side, if people are going to the shops less, if people are buying less, once the panic buying toilet rolls out of the way, then that could have an impact on then that could have an impact on the economy, and in many ways, it is not what actually happens, it is the perception of what might happen that could have the greater impact. and it is quite a challenge and what is quite early in the stages of this whole issue, for the budget you have to take place. and so the chancellor certainly has an interesting challenge ahead of him. well, brexit seems to have been pushed off the

front pages? i think the other aspect of this budget, i suspect, it will be very much a holding budget and a lot of the big decisions will be made in the autumn budget in... autumn. excuse me! indeed. and then of course they will be the contents of course they will be the contents of spending review as well. i think we will see a bit of a holding budget. but they will be some sort of not in the direction of the promises made in the conservatives‘ ma nifesto, promises made in the conservatives‘ manifesto, raising the threshold for national insurance contributions and help for business rates and the like. but i think the focus is going to be on the impact, the reaction to the outbreak. and the focus of course also being to try to reassure people that measures are being taken... yes, exactly. as ruth said, the chancellor is quoted as saying that he is not daunted into the uk is well well, he would that, wouldn't he? the governor of the bank of england has been making the same sort of noises. could cut interest rates. even lower than now?

it is 0.75% at the moment. could go to 0.5% on the 26th of march. it is 0.75% at the moment. could go to 0.596 on the 26th of march. you heard it here first. somebody else who is not daunted is the queen. yes, the queen has vowed that she won't let the virus stop her doing her duty and that she will keep calm and carry on and various other things. one of the suggestions is that large gatherings will be banned or people will be prevented from going to large gatherings. another thing that has been mentioned is that the over—705 will be prevented from going to large gatherings because the data suggests they are most at risk of the virus. we have a woman who is well over 70... most at risk of the virus. we have a woman who is well over 70. .. 93. and spencer time going from large gathering to large gathering. she does wear gloves, though i am not sure if that would be enough, in the long—term. —— spends hertime. but you do expect that continuity from the monarch. commonwealth day services tomorrow at westminster abbey, we know that is a very important public event for her. unless advised otherwise, she will carry on doing this, as the

reporting suggests. the services on i think. ruth, reporting suggests. the services on ithink. ruth, we reporting suggests. the services on i think. ruth, we wouldn‘t expect anything less from her majesty? tomorrow, because we have sunday‘s papers, if you get my drift. tomorrow, because we have sunday‘s papers, if you get my driftm clearly says tomorrow here! to my's news today. we are reading it early. you are just half—an—hour ahead of us. you are just half—an—hour ahead of us. i‘m trying to help! no, this is excellent. i mean, that she was, she battled away through the second world war, she has battled away for goodness knows how long, she has been a monarch for nearly 70 years. 1952 she became the monarch of this country. absolutely extraordinary. she will not be daunted. let's leave that there and go to the front page of the independent, which has its own survey saying that most britons wa nt own survey saying that most britons want a new mansion tax. you are not very surprised about this, joe? tell us very surprised about this, joe? tell us why. i haven't been able to find the details of the survey sol us why. i haven't been able to find the details of the survey so i can't tell you how legitimate it is. but when you ask people questions about

the "mansion tax" you do get people supporting it if you are effectively asking people, would you like richer people to pay more tax for services that you like? unsurprisingly, that generally gets a lot of support. under mansion tax is something that has been a controversial issue for some time. yes, it is supported, consistently, in the polls, by a large proportion of the population. but it still doesn't make it has also proved to be particularly unpopular among conservative mps in the past, but also among those people and can —— in traditional conservative constituencies. they point the paper makes, i believe. exactly. it will be interesting to see what it actually proves more popular in the so—called redwall constituencies, those previous labour constituencies that are switched to the conservatives at the la st switched to the conservatives at the last election. —— red wall. if that is the kind of area they are trying to get support from this could be an indication of the levelling up we have so much about. i imagine,

however, it probably won't take place, and indeed the prime minister is said to have cooled on the idea. it would be a difficult balancing act for the prime minister. it would be a difficult balancing act for the prime ministerlj it would be a difficult balancing act for the prime minister. i can't see this happening at all, quite honestly. because when sajid javid floated this, the reaction from a lot of the conservatives was absolutely toxic. come on, it is all right talking about the redwall, but you have to think about the blue wall if there is such a thing as the blue wall stop —— talking about the red wall. a lot of the people and more expensive properties, you would think they pay enough already, because pay council tax, when you buy the property you pay a lot of stamp duty. you are already paying a loss. the other question is, just how much revenue would this bring in? people have got this idea that you can perhaps bring in billions of pounds. compare and contrast that with what philip hammond actually did to the nhs spending back in the autumn of 2018, which was our last budget. he was talking about another extra £20 billion per year going into the nhs, which would absolutely dwarf anything you would get from a

mansion tax. it needs to be kept in perspective as well. i think politically, toxic. i think there is a really interesting point about social care. we need more money to pay for an ageing population. that needs to either come from private payment the public purse. and with brexit and is now a coronavirus, we are not discussing these hugely important issues that face not just us important issues that face not just us but all developed democracies. if the conservatives committed to people not having to sell their homes to pay for social care, where does the money come from, and perhaps people being taxed more for their home in order to pay for social care, that might be part of the answer. part of the answer, because as ruth says, it would result in that much income. let‘s go to the front page of the observer. sleaze watchdog, as they call it, probesjohnson‘s holiday. this is his holiday in the stick over the new year. yes, a parliamentary squeeze. . . new year. yes, a parliamentary squeeze... sleaze! i can barely

speak. the squeeze watchdog is something different entirely. shall i give it its proper name? the parliamentary commission of standards. i think that is splendid. however, apparently they are going to probejohnson‘s holiday because he was in mustique, in a rather glamorous mansion. —— mustique. i suspect this is something most people are not really interested in. maybe i am not a natural observer reader, which will not surprise you. johnson himself and not care about this either, quite honestly he has biggerfish to fry. this either, quite honestly he has bigger fish to fry. he is this either, quite honestly he has biggerfish to fry. he is running the country. and yet it does point out it is the first time a serving prime minister has been investigated by the commission. indeed, three high—level enquiries under investigation, to do with the prime minister, around his allegations around his conduct, among a great many things. at the same time, in terms of public opinion, he still seems to be doing particularly well, when it comes, for instance, when he is dealing with the coronavirus

issue, well, a quarter of labour supporters think he is doing well. so he is doing ok. in the longer term, could this be a problem for him? could he be seen as missing in action? could he be seen as somebody who consistently has problems with propriety? well, it remains to be seen. propriety? well, it remains to be seen. 0k. propriety? well, it remains to be seen. ok. i don't think any of this is new, is it? i think it is water off the duck‘s back. is new, is it? i think it is water off the duck's back. we shall see. ruth and joe, thank you both very much. but is it for the papers tonight. don‘t forget, you can see the front pages of the papers online on the bbc news website. it is all there for you, seven days a week. and if you miss the programme any evening, you can watch it later on iplayer. thank you again tojoe and ruth. next on the bbc news, the film review.