president donald trump has announced the us will ban flights from mainland europe for 30 days from friday to try to contain the spread of coronavirus, now officially a pandemic. speaking from the oval office, mr trump said the flight ban won't apply to the uk or permanent us residents. he announced plans to apply billions of dollars in loans to small businesses and encourage health insurers to help those affected. in italy, new restrictions will close all shops for two weeks except food stores and pharmacies. it's estimated 12,500 are infected. the death toll has jumped by nearly 200 in the past day alone to 827. disgraced film producer harvey weinstein has been sentenced to 23 years in prison for rape and sexual assault. he was found guilty in new york last month. he still faces charges in los angeles.

you are up to date on the headlines. now on bbc news, hardtalk. welcome to hardtalk, i'm zeinab badawi. the covid—19 crisis is not only a threat to people's health and wellbeing, it is already having severe financial consequences, which many fear will result in a crisis of the kind we saw over a decade ago. my guest is a professor on globalisation and development, who six years ago predicted that the next financial crash would be caused by a pandemic. he is ian golding. will his prophesy come to pass, or can this be averted? a public health emergency will lead toa a public health emergency will lead to a global recession?

an goldin, welcome to hardtalk. it's a pleasure to be here. what made you predict six years ago that the next globalfinancial predict six years ago that the next global financial crash would be caused by a pandemic? it's almost inevitable, as we connect more, as more and more people live in big cities close to airports, which are not only the super spreaders of the goods of globalisation but also the bads, that contagion would cascade around the world. we've seen many pandemics in the past, they've a lwa ys pandemics in the past, they've always been the biggest killers of humanity and i believe this continued to be a major threat that was being ignored, so i felt very strongly and still do that this is likely to be not only the biggest

threat to our lives but also to our financial systems and economies. you said that the coronavirus shows how globalisation spreads contagion of all kinds, so you're attributing it to globalisation there, but i have to put it to you that during the spanish flu outbreak in 1918, when eventually 50 million people died, there wasn't globalisation then in the sense that we talk about it today? no, there wasn't, and that was spread largely through troops returning home from europe after the war. shipping was the way it... that's why it was so slow. it affected one third of the world's population in some way, 50 million died. now we have this but in a much more virulent form given our collectivity, and the threat is much more instantaneous. we've seen in cyber it can instantly spread around the world, we've seen in the financial crisis that overnight

there was cascading risk and with pandemics near big airport hubs, anything can be anywhere in the world in 36 hours. and you attribute that to globalisation? yes, it is the result of globalisation, which has brought immense benefits, i'm a huge believer in it, it's brought better things for more people more quickly than anything in the world just why 2 billion people have been lifted out of property while you have these openly growing cities and airport hubs, but globalisation is also very bad and very ugly and it needs to be managed so we can sustain it. you been making comparisons between the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 and what we are seeing now and attributing it, as we said, to globalisation, but you're not really comparing life with light. 0ne globalisation, but you're not really comparing life with light. one is a health emergency and another one was born of finance. what i analyse in my book, the butterfly defect, is how these integrated, complex systems and lead to interdependency and in that sense it very similar.

it's about something that starts somewhere in a hub, spreading around the world rapidly, through the arteries of globalisation. in that case it was financed, in this case it's airports and airlines and travel, but they are similar both in the way that they originate and travel, but also that we need to think about their management in similar ways. we need to think about the way to co—ordinate to stop these things. all right, so there was a crash then more than a decade ago, financial crisis, are you saying we are now heading towards a global recession? 0r are now heading towards a global recession? or are we already in one? can you clarify? i think we're on the cusp. 0n the cusp. a cliff edge, and it's up to us and our government that we decide whether we're heading over it or we are able to our actions. i think concerted actions by governments nationally and globally could that a major crisis, a collapsed equivalent to 2008, but if we don't do more quickly i think

we're heading for that and it could be much severe. i'll ask you what we think we should do in a moment but let's examine the severity of what you think will happen. angel ta lavera you think will happen. angel talavera at economic set is pretty difficult to avoid a recession in the first half of the year. the spread of the disease in europe is a game—changer, the questions are how deep will be and how long it will last. so if you say we are on the cusp, just elucidate. when will we get into it and how long do you think it would last? is it a given it's going to happen?” think it would last? is it a given it's going to happen? i think we're definitely going to have a major, major slowdown in the world economy. we could see negative growth in much of europe, even in the us, and we could see much, much slower growth... it's been over 6% down to 296 in china. growth... it's been over 6% down to 2% in china. so this will slow things down. if countries respond by rapidly addressing the crisis, by

transferring money to those that most need it, to helping those that can't get to work, to trying to sustain businesses so they don't go bankrupt through underwriting their loa ns, bankrupt through underwriting their loans, extending their loans in other ways, and if there's a co—ordinated bible activity, to give money to those countries that are going to desperately need it, including italy and many other countries already on the verge of bankruptcy, we might avoid the worst effects but yes, we are heading towards recession. let's be honest, you don't really know. nobody knows. a... negative affects will be with us a... negative affects will be with us for a while, your seatbelt hard. the british chancellor of the exchequer, rishi sunak, said there will be a significant impact on the uk economy but it will be temporary. it's all words like this, a wild, temporary, it's all a bit obsessed gate three language. temporary, it's all a bit obsessed gate three languagelj temporary, it's all a bit obsessed gate three language. i don't think it's obvious gate three we don't

know how extreme the pandemic is going to be in written. is it going to be like italy or is it going to be much milder? are we going to bounce back quickly, as in china with juve province, bounce back quickly, as in china withjuve province, is it going to linger longer? is it going to tra nsfer to linger longer? is it going to transfer to the southern hemisphere as winter comes there? there's many questions we don't and experts don't know the answers to and they have dramatic implications for the economic impact. we know it's going to bea economic impact. we know it's going to be a big knock, we know it will probably be equivalent to 2008... for sure? i think it will be, yes. but i don't know how it's going to play out around the world because we don't know the response. you just said we know there's going to be an economic impact, so what kind of impactare we economic impact, so what kind of impact are we talking about? is it going to affect people's livelihoods, are they going to be compromised, are they going to be widespread shortages of consumer and industrial goods? impact on people's

social lives, what kind of impact are you talking about? all of the above. we're already seeing a dramatic on people who are vulnerable. people's pensions have gone down dramatically after the stock market crash, they have less to spend, people on hourly work, 5 million in the uk and 50 million in the us, people around the world on hourly work depend on going to work to get their income, they day, no unemployment benefit, supporting theirfamilies, unemployment benefit, supporting their families, migrant workers unemployment benefit, supporting theirfamilies, migrant workers but domestic workers, people in the travel industry, people work in hospitality of different types, restau ra nts, hospitality of different types, restaurants, hotels, all of these people are extremely vulnerable. either their workplace will be closed down or the airline, as british airways is telling people, don't come to work to certain staff in italy, for example, or they will be quarantined because they know someone be quarantined because they know someone who's been somewhere. and thatis someone who's been somewhere. and that is their livelihood, so i think this will exacerbate inequality, i

think it will slow economic growth. that means the businesses that produce things we whether it is restau ra nt produce things we whether it is restaurant meals or clothing, going to the shops, whatever it is, all of the businesses go out of work and then the supply chains are disrupted as well, we can't get the components and so the auto factories and start closing down, otherfactors start closing down, otherfactors start closing down. people's cars and start breaking down and they can't fix them. this leads to a decline in demand, a decline in supply and we are going into a downward spiral of consumer confidence and economic activity, that's how the 2008 crash happened and that's how crashes generally happen. you get a downward spiral and a much lower level of activity. you said it would also exacerbate inequality, is that within countries and also between countries, a sickly poorer nations and poorer communities within countries are going to be hit harder? within our

countries it will exacerbate inequality. if there's a strong safety net, that will reduce it but many countries, including the us, and poor countries, don't have safety nets so people lose theirjob 01’ safety nets so people lose theirjob or whatever, they can't get it, people don't have access to medical ca re people don't have access to medical care and in the us is over 20 million people who don't have access to medical care and are not insured, these people can't get tested and won't be able to go to hospitals though it exacerbates the inequalities within countries dramatically. it makes people who depend on things like retirement savings much worse off. obviously the virus doesn't discriminate against people depending... no, that's the difference between a pandemic and other shops. the industrial north in italy is the one most severely affected, 10,000 cases there. but within that, the rich have savings and the ability to withstand this crisis but poor people, when they lose their income, can become destitute and homeless if they can't pay the rent. that's also

between countries because poorer countries don't have the resources, they don't have the health systems and other systems in place. professor goldin, though, are you not scaremongering a bit? the director general of the world health organization, doctor ted roscoe prieto, said panic and fear is the worst. are you not doing that with all the things you are saying? the scientists are saying by the end of the year we might have a vaccine which will be able to be rolled out and so on... i hope we well. that's what we are saying. tessa gilbert from oxford university has said hopefully by the end of the year, she is one of the scientists involved. i hope one of my worst fears on realised, and as roosevelt said in1933, fears on realised, and as roosevelt said in 1933, the only thing we have to fear is fear itself. but you are scaremongering. is there an apocalyptic phase and of what's going to happen? i think they could bea going to happen? i think they could be a massive crash coming out of

this. all the outcomes of systemic risk are about what we do about them. the reason to raise the red flags, or at least the orange lights, is because we want people to act, i want governments to act, i wa nt act, i want governments to act, i want them to stop this and learn from this, which they never did. they are doing that, both in terms of mitigation and containment against covid—19. the eu commission has set up a 25 billion euros fund. giuseppe conte, the prime minister of england, said we're going to have 7.5 billion euros spending measures —— italy. 7.5 billion euros spending measures -- italy. these numbers are tiny compared to what was given to solve the financial crisis. alistair darling set aside... a formally politician who was chancellor at the time of the financial crisis. he set out £500 billion to bailout the banks. the us treasury secretary set

aside $750 billion to bailout the us banks. you're saying that they should pay more? i'm delighted the chancellor today set aside £30 billion and what he's advocating for in the uk is very sensible, but compared to the response in the financial crisis, this is tiny. so, what, you're talking about finding money that order? hundreds of billions? if needed. we should have the ammunition that's going to be required. i put it to you that containment and mitigation measures have been undertaken and there having some success. doctor ted rosser at the who has raised china for its containment, so they've now got fewer cases. south korea has seen got fewer cases. south korea has seen a got fewer cases. south korea has seen a decline in cases. singapore also. he has said, doctor ted ross, the bottom—line is we are at the mercy of the virus so things are working without these vast injections of funds that you're advocating.

i would say it is too early to say. it has worked in china, dramatic applications. in italy, we have an absolute clampdown. that is not what is happening in other countries, not least in the uk and are generally in the us. it is too early to tell how this virus is going to spread and the effect on economies but i am saying it could be dramatic and we should be prepared for that and be prepared to react dramatically to stop that happening. you have said we have to act dramatically, lots of money, new ways of working, greater cooperation because this is a global threat so you cannotjust have nationstates responding in that way. what are you advocating? what should nations be doing? what has compounded the risks is that in 2008, the world was relatively harmonious. george bush called a meeting immediately after the 2008

crisis and he had 28 heads of state including the chinese. china flew in more than the rest of the world to mitigate the impact of 2008. now the world has turned its back on... you do not have to gather in a summit but you need to co—ordinate in action. the us which is not fighting. fighting the country which was its key ally in 2008, china. whether it is on climate change, pandemics, cyber, any big risks we need to work together. we have the world health organization. the who has been starved of resources and legitimacy of authority. it is not up legitimacy of authority. it is not up to 21st century purpose. legitimacy of authority. it is not up to 215t century purposem legitimacy of authority. it is not up to 21st century purpose. it does not have the resources... it is

not... pandemics are unusualto financial or climate. it can come from anywhere. the poorest countries are at risk. with climate a small group of countries could resolve the problem, the same with finance. when pandemics arise, to act on them, thatis pandemics arise, to act on them, that is what you need. once it is in a major airport, it is really anywhere in the world. should they be new structures? they need to be reinvigorated, reformed. help them. the next pandemic. the british journalist commentator robert armstrong says coronavirus is a global crisis, not a crisis of globalisation and that globalisation provides the solution and that is what you are saying but, as you know, there has been a lot of retreat from mobilisation across the

world. a lot of voters have said we're not reaping the globalisation. we have seen politicians likejeremy corbyn railing against it, only sanders has also said globalisation has left far too many people behind. —— bernie sanders. not a big vote of confidence. i think it is right to see that globalisation has been not only a major source of progress but also it has brought rising inequality and new risks. pandemic spreading, climate change, and many other risks. the financial crisis was an underbelly of globalisation. the answer is not to bring higher walls. there is no wall high enough to prevent fibre change, pandemic but we have to manage the system we have built and ensure we co—ordinate actions and ensure we understand the

pads and we are building institutions to manage it, whether it is climate change, finance, cyber, pandemic but we have to have the will to do it. the cause of the problem is the vehicle to solve it despite scepticism? absolutely. part of the scepticism is because the experts have got it dramatically wrong. they have led a liberalisation which is wrong. when people say we do not trust the experts, they become nationalist but we have to say, you were right not to trust them because they did not manage the system. bernie sanders has said unfettered free trade has allowed multinational corporations to make the rich richer while workers are sucked into a race to the bottom. could what we're seeing now have an impact on trade? you

have said the epidemic will also prompt a re—examination of the central reliance on china as a ground zero for manufacturing. could china cease to be... i think we will continue to see incredible growth of global economic... the centre of gravity is moving to asia and asia is very enthusiastic about this integration. in general. in the us, europe, we are marginal to this globalisation. it will continue to be asia centric but we have reached a peak supply fragmentation. other things are happening. increasing automation in robotics ringing systems back home. it will not be workers are building things back home but machines, whether it is call centres, or to manufacturing and then we will have increasing customisation, modelled to our

bodies. all these things are coming together. coronavirus will be an accelerator. that's right. it is a trend underlying already. does that also apply to other ways of living, for example people have rolled back on their travel, businesses are holding videoconferences, people are saying they are going to holiday at home and not go abroad, could this have long—term consequences? home and not go abroad, could this have long—term consequence57m home and not go abroad, could this have long-term consequences? it will have long-term consequences? it will have some long—term consequences but on an upward trend. the growth in tourism and travel globally has been almost 10% a yearfor the tourism and travel globally has been almost 10% a year for the last ten yea rs. let's say almost 10% a year for the last ten years. let's say comes out a couple of% it does not mean it stops growing but it means it does not growing but it means it does not grow as rapidly. tourism out of asia will not stop growing as people get wealthier and it will as asia grows. people will travel. people have seen

in china, with fewer people travelling now because of the coronavirus, carbon dioxide emissions have gone down. there are some silver lining is out of this. could that really be a wake—up call for people that actually the coronavirus will transform people's habits? i do not think it will transform it in that dramatic way. we will see some easing off. when we look back and see how people have rebounded to old habits. what we need to instill in society is we need to instill in society is we need to instill in society is we need to manage these risks. oil prices have collapsed stop it will become much cheaper and worry about that in the context of climate change. our push to get off fossil fuel will be reduced by the fact that oil is so cheap and competitive. one idea also discussed is it could encourage the free flow

of information in countries which are authoritarian. the tragic death of the doctor in china who raised theissue of the doctor in china who raised the issue on line and he died of the disease and he said on his deathbed, i a death healthy society should not have just one kind i a death healthy society should not havejust one kind of i a death healthy society should not have just one kind of voice. i a death healthy society should not havejust one kind of voice. could it have that impact? i hope so but i think the chinese will be saying our way of managing it has been extremely effective and they will not be taking away from this that they were not doing the right thing. of course, it was picked up too late, there was not the medication around but the actions afterwards have been draconian, helped spread the virus and a big hit on the economy said china has taken a big hit in trying to protect itself and the world. we have already seen in the world. we have already seen in the financial impact of coronavirus.

professor ian goldin, you foretold there would be a global economic crisis as a result of some pandemic. when are now looking at coronavirus. you must hope you are wrong?” absolutely do but i hope we learn that the lesson from this and did not become complacent as happened in the run—up to the financial crisis that we thought we knew we were doing and failed to the system. i hope this is a massive wake—up call to stop the next pandemic which is inevitable and could be more severe, to stop financial crisis, to stop climate change and other risks, to learn that we are interdependent and we all depend on people around the world to be doing the right thing, to be taking the cautions, to stop risks and if we can do that internationally and nationally it would have been worthwhile. thank you very much indeed, ian goldin. i should take the precaution of not

shaking hands with him but thank you very much being on hardtalk. thank you. hello. meteorologically speaking, it is now the start of spring. but of course, winter is not that far behind us and i think we will get a reminder of that through the next couple of days. cold air flooding into the uk around an area of low pressure will bring us quite a few showers actually, on thursday, the most frequent closest to the low centre, so across the northern half of the uk. but can't rule out some pretty sharp ones whipping through on that strong wind further south, either. and as you can see, the blue has flooded its way right across the uk for today, but all sitting in the polarair. so it will add a definite

chill to proceedings, even where we see some sunshine. after showers overnight and plunging temperatures, snow and ice a possible hazard as we start our morning commute. there could be some further falling snow through the earlier part of the day as well for scotland, the higher ground for the higher ground of northern england and for northern ireland. we should see the snow levels rising as the day progresses, however. some showers to the south, though, could have a little bit of hail mixed in with them from time to time. there'll be quite squally winds here, too. but the showers should be more scattered, they'll tend to come in more persistent bands to the north of the uk, across northern ireland, parts of northern england and scotland. it will feel chilly and the wind, while the strongest across southern scotland, northern england, northern ireland and to the north—west of wales, gusts could touch up to 60 miles per hour here but gusts of a0 miles per hour quite widely. through thursday evening, still a lot of showers around, then we move into the small hours of friday and things start to become quieter. we pick up a northerly wind on the length of the north sea, that will feed some showers

into eastern counties the uk, temperatures fall away across the northern half of the uk and in particular again into the small hours of friday. so ice a risk for the north of the uk for first thing on friday once again but our showers will tend to shift offshore quite quickly through friday morning as high pressure starts to build just a little ridge — a brief ridge of high pressure starts to buil for friday daytime. so the early showers clear, the northerly wind eases, there'll be pleasant sunshine the majority for a time at least before our next low starts to approach from the south—west as we get into friday afternoon. the wind will begin to pick up once again and we'll see the arrival of some further rainfall. and then it's another weekend, another area of low pressure. saturday the wettest of the weather to the north—west of the uk. for sunday, this front needs to make its way through so i suspect all of us will see some rain at some stage. so quite a bit of cloud around widely around the uk on saturday, rainfall fairly limited. sunday definitely looks like soggier prospects across the board.

this is the briefing, i'm sally bundock. our top stories: president trump bands or flights from mainland europe for 30 days to defeat the credit pandemic. to keep new cases from entering our shores, we will be suspending all travel from europe to the united states for the next 30 days. the new rules were going to effect friday at midnight. tom hanks and his wife rita wilson confirmed they have tested positive for the virus and will self isolate in australia. we have a special report from the middle east as muslims and christians take unprecedented measures to try and halt the spread of