,bea parliament earlier, it will be a sharp spike in cases from the number announced yesterday which was 36. we have said consistently now for the past couple of weeks that we have been expecting to see cases rise and that will continue to be the case. the other significant factor from the update today is that we have evidence in a further two cases of community transmission. and that is clearly significant in some of what i'm coming on to talk about around the the cobra meeting hasjust concluded. it was attended by the scottish government first minister of wales and northern ireland as well. the decision has been taken that we have now moved from a contained phase into the delay phase, where the objective is to seek to slow down the spread of the virus, to reduce the numbers who will be infected at peak, the

numbers infected at any one time. that is clearly important in terms of trying to alleviate the pressure that —— at any one time placed on oui’ that —— at any one time placed on our national health service. and another key focus of that, and indeed later phases of this response, will be to protect those groups in society that the early data tells us are more at risk of developing serious illness. i should reiterate that the vast majority of people who get this infection will suffer mild symptoms, that they will recover from quickly. suffer mild symptoms, that they will recoverfrom quickly. but we know there are groups, the elderly population and those with other health conditions, that are out more at risk of developing serious illness and therefore much of our focus in the weeks to come will be on the measures to protect people in those groups. what i'm about to say today, of course, there be further

actions all four actions will take in the next few weeks. the action to delay clearly has implications. the initial implication of that is a change in the advice that we are now giving to the general public. the advice that we will be giving now is that from tomorrow, if you have symptoms that are indicative of having coronavirus, you should stay at home, you should self—isolate, for a period of seven days. i would like to be clear what i mean when i talk about the symptoms. that is specifically the chief medical officer can expand on this later. that is specifically a fever or a persistent cough. i also want to be very clear that unless your symptoms don't clear up within a few days, or you feel they are deteriorating, you do not have to call your gp or nhs 24. you should simply stay at home on the basis of the symptoms that

are indicative of possible coronavirus. we will not be routinely testing everyone who has symptoms and a self isolating. clearly the reasons for that are obvious. but i want to be clear that we will continue to do surveillance and sample testing so that we continue to develop the knowledge that we have around the spread of this disease. so the chief medical officer can't say more about this when we get into questions. that is the significant new advice that will be given by all micro four nations across the uk to the general public. that is the initial step that is signified by the move from contain to delay. there are a couple of other matters i want to address. firstly, we will also be giving advice to local authorities and schools that we are now advising that overseas school trips should

not be going ahead. i understand that the foreign and commonwealth office will be issuing travel advice that aligns with that position. i wa nt to that aligns with that position. i want to just address briefly the issue of school closures more generally. it is not the advice right now that the schools should close. or indeed that colleges or universities are required as it slows. that is not what we are advising. that is an issue that will be kept under very close ongoing regular review. maybe it would be helpful if i expand on that point a little bit to give some of the rationale. it is of course informed and guided by the scientific advice we have access to. a couple of practical issues. closing schools has a very direct effect on the ability to keep key workers at work. there is also a view that closing

schools will lead to children gathering in more informal settings, which actually may be more of a risk of them contracting the infection because unlike in schools, where the hand hygiene protocols can be followed, that would not be the case. there is also the point about longevity of a position run school closures. if it gets to the stage where the advice is to close schools, this will not be for a week oi’ schools, this will not be for a week or two weeks. this will be something that was advised to last throughout the peak of this infection. that is potentially until the summer period. this would be something that was not briefed and therefore it underlines the importance of having a position, if this position becomes necessary to advise them we don't do that in earlier than the science is advising us earlier than the science is advising us to do. i hope that gives people some understanding of that position. these are, as i have said before, no easyjudgments. they these are, as i have said before, no easy judgments. they are

these are, as i have said before, no easyjudgments. they are difficult and complex judgments. that easyjudgments. they are difficult and complexjudgments. that is why they have to be kept under review, informed by the best science and the wider issues that we require to take account of. the last point i want to make is the issue of mass gatherings. i should stay —— say at this stage i'm articulating a scottish government position. not a uk wide position. other administrations, of course, will set out their own positions. i, as i said at first minister's questions earlier, we have looked carefully at the situation and come to the decision today in the scottish government that we will, from the start of next week, advise the cancellation of mass gatherings of over 500 people that have the potential to have an impact on our front line emergency services. i wa nt to front line emergency services. i want to be clear as i was earlier, this is not a move that we are making because the science has told

us making because the science has told us it will have a significant impact on the spread of the virus. on the contrary, the scientists tell us it will not have a significant impact on the spirit of the virus. although not a significant impact does not equate to no impact at all. there are wider reasons that i consider and havejudged are wider reasons that i consider and have judged that are are wider reasons that i consider and havejudged that are important in reaching this decision. firstly, there is the issue of consistency of public messaging at a time like this. if we are advising people, as we are now, in the circumstances i have already set out, to stay at home, and as i anticipate over the coming weeks, we will be advising people that their normal day—to—day lives have to change, then i think it is inconsistent to have a business as usual message around large gatherings. but the more important point is the one i articulated in parliament earlier on. whether or not they need

dedicated ambience cover. we know certain events have an impact on policing and front line health services, accident and emergency and ambulance services. and at a time when the pressure on those services is going to be considerable, our public services, like all areas of oui’ public services, like all areas of our economy, will have higher absence rates because of illness. our health services in particular will be under acute pressure in the weeks and months to come. i think it is incumbent on government to do what we can to remove unnecessary burdens on our public services. that is the rationale for the decision that i am announcing today. there will be a number of questions, i am sure you will have a number of questions and other organisations will have a number of questions, about the specific applications of this at which events it applies to and which events it might not apply to. we will provide detailed advice over the course of the weekend

monday to make clear exactly the scope of this and the reasons and the rationale behind it. but we are entering a period where there will be significant changes to people's day—to—day experience. that is going to affect all of us. and the difficultyjudgments that to affect all of us. and the difficulty judgments that are involved in that have to be taken. and our responsibility is to do that. and protect our ability as a society to deal with the impact of what we are going to be facing. the final point i want to make before opening two questions is, to remind people that a virus cannot simply be made to go away, much as we would like to be that —— that to be the case. the responsibility we have is to seek to manage this as best we can. we are going to face, and our health service in particular is going to face a significant challenge in the weeks and possibly months to come, which is why white

are planning around nhs capacity is so are planning around nhs capacity is so important. but ourfocus is very much on seeking to delay the spread to reduce the peak impact and to protect the most vulnerable. and those are the guiding principles that will continue to inform the approach that we are taking. i know this is an anxious time for the public. and the scottish government command eyes first minister comedy chief medical officer and others, will continue to do everything we can to make sure that there is clear, transparent advice for people. but this is not an ordinary situation and i hope the wider public understand that. with those comments i will take questions. and i will: the chief medical officer and the cabinet secretary. inaudible. can you talk to us about

what kind of gatherings you are thinking of cancelling? what i have said already, and we will put more definition on this because people do have practical questions, but it is the kind of gatherings that potentially have an impact on our emergency services. so i wouldn't routinely describe a church gathering in that way. but a football match or a rugby match, absolutely does. that sometimes will because —— be because of the size. but even smaller than that we know that these kinds of events can put pressure on police, ambulance services and accident and emergency services. we are, not right now, but progressively over the next few weeks, going to have a situation where those services are under acute pressure. i feel an obligation where those services are under acute pressure. ifeel an obligation is first minister. they will be for the things we have to do. i feel an

obligation to remove as many unnecessary burdens on these workers right now as i can. that is the thinking behind this. as i say, we will set out more of the detailed definition with that principle and give people a sense of the kind of events we are speaking of. let's pull away from that news conference. first minister nicola sturgeon announcing that the scottish government moving from containment to delay phase of the battle against the coronavirus. she says that from next monday gatherings of more than 500 people will be banned. on the basis that will be banned. on the basis that will free up emergency services staff to cope with the expected rise in the number of cases. that is the announcement you heard live there from edinburgh, from the first minister. across the bbc we have seen an minister. across the bbc we have seen an almost unprecedented amount of information about the virus and how it might impact you. now it is time to answer your questions on the

coronavirus. the world health organization has declared coronavirus a pandemic. doctor margaret harris joins me declared coronavirus a pandemic. doctor margaret harrisjoins me now from the geneva. thank you for your time. i'm going to crack on straightaway. we are getting so many of these. i want to put this from sue in london who asks, should officers, schools, and public places be closed? that is really the question of the hour. we are getting this from every country. this is a decision for your local authorities. this is a decision for your business people. this is dependent on exactly where your infection is and where your —— and your community. it is something you need to do as a risk assessment. will this limit the crowding? will it help you to

socially distance? this is what i would call anti—social distilling. —— distancing. will this slow the viral transmission? we have seen it work in other countries. but it is a decision that each community and each country takes and they take it differently. we are seeing different approaches. ideally you take the decision that works in your community. with the agreement a lot —— of all of you so that you can all do itand —— of all of you so that you can all do it and make it work to protect yourselves and those you love. that will strike a lot of people as a bit strange, won't it? this virus does not exist —— respect borders, it a cts not exist —— respect borders, it acts on the same way for everybody around the globe. surely there needs to bea around the globe. surely there needs to be a global response? but this virus to be a global response? but this vi rus loves to be a global response? but this virus loves our behaviour. it loves the fact we love each other. that we spend a lot of time with each other. that we case, we shake hands, we are

jammed against each other in public transport. it is taking advantage of that. people say, it must be seasonal because it looks like it is a winter virus. we think that is because in the winter people heard together. it is easier for the virus together. it is easier for the virus tojump together. it is easier for the virus to jump from person to person because we are seeing outbreaks in australia. but each country that we have seen, we have seen china and now korea, they have taken different approaches. they have taken approaches. they have taken approaches that work with their community because the secret is commitment by every individual in your society. 0k. another question from michael. should we rescreening eve ryo ne from michael. should we rescreening everyone entering the united kingdom at ports and airports? -- should we be screening? we are certainly giving people the information they need. good communication. give them the information they need, what to look for. how to think about whether

or not they have been exposed. who to call if they do get ill. and also, what they can do to protect themselves. the hand hygiene. we keep on banging on about it. people say, it's just washing your hands. it's simple to say, hard to do. giving that information and having people trust that this is the right thing to do, and identifying themselves as being potentially infected with coronavirus, is the thing that works best. markin hadfield says, asks, how long is this pandemic expected to last? that is another excellent question. and we do not have the answer. this is a new virus. the science is evolving as we speak. we have seen it move very rapidly through many communities. why we characterised it asa communities. why we characterised it as a pandemic yesterday is because we now do see it throughout the

world and we do expect intensification in a number of countries. we would like to see that intensification not happen. but we do expect this to continue for some time. but i can't give you an exact date. i wasn't going to ask for one, don't worry! i don't know what the situation in malaysia is but we have a message for malaysia, what is the worst case scenario that could happen? there have been many models. we have heard of that huge numbers of people could indeed be infected if we don't slow down. but the worst case scenario, actually, is when that 15%, the people who get the really severe illness, haven't got a chance to get the care they need. remember, this is an illness you can recover from but if you have got the severe form you need intensive care. that requires big teams of doctors and nurses, high—tech equipment,

ventilators, other ancillary staff, cleaners, ambulance workers. and they have to work around the clock. it takes five to six weeks for people to recover. if you have too many people who need that kind of care, if you have allowed your outbreak to get to bed, that is when you really a re outbreak to get to bed, that is when you really are in very big trouble. david says, how will the pandemic eventually end? that is also another good question. it will end when we all commit to doing the things that we know that work. the social distancing, the hand hygiene, the environmental hygiene. perhaps we all need to work and think differently. we rate all need to... we need to be more careful with hygienic practices. it takes a long time to get fed in our own canteen

because everybody is extremely careful about distancing and managing the food and the utensils. we will have to accept that we have to be living differently. it will end. but it's not clear exactly. and i suppose you are asking also, will be declare an end? no. because we didn't declare a beginning. we simply characterised it. as the numbers come down, we will also characterise that and let you know. you said it takes five to six weeks to recover. do we know you cannot catch it again? there have been interesting studies which show that people, when they drop their viral load, get it to quite a low level so the test doesn't pick it up, and an hour or two later the test does pick it up. it's not clear if they are simply at the level where it is difficult for the test to read. we

do not think that is reinfection. we think they are reaching the end of their illness. but with many viral illnesses, the virus hangs around a bit longer. this again is something we are learning more about every day. we have had worldwide pandemic speakfor day. we have had worldwide pandemic speak for but never had to go into lockdown or self isolation. what is different about this outbreak?m lockdown or self isolation. what is different about this outbreak? it is a new virus. that is the really big difference. our immune systems have no knowledge of that virus. even with most flu viruses we have got, our bodies have a little bit of experience. when the flu virus changes dramatically, that ended when your bodies don't have any experience. but at least we have the mechanism to get a vaccine out more quickly and we have some treatments. but with this one we don't have any of those tools. so we are back stuck with the old—fashioned methods that

we do no work. they are drastic but they do work. a question from ivan, why did the world health organization take so long to call this virus a pandemic? we actually declared it a public health emergency of international concern on the 30th of january. this is a mechanism brought in after stars in hong kong when the world asked us to be able to declare something very early and asked countries to work together. it does not seem to have been messaged effectively as the emergency to we understood it was backin emergency to we understood it was back in january. emergency to we understood it was back injanuary. so as we looked at it we realised we needed to explain, yes, it is everywhere and yes, we need to take action. this is why we are characterising it as a pandemic. joseph, what is the mortality for healthy people? this is one of the

confusions. what we see with this virus is most people do seem to have a relatively mild course. if you talk to the people who have had one, they tell me it wasn't so pleasant. but there is this 15% group that get very, very sick. the overall mortality for everyone is around one to 2%. but if you don't get to treat meant, it's possibly the mortality is much higher. for a person with no underlying disease, they are most likely to have a viral illness and not be at risk of mortality at all. but however, we have unfortunately and very sadly, seems some individuals who have been perfectly healthy who have gone to develop the severe form and die. i can't give you a percentage. but i am trying to give you an idea of how it works.

rachel in wales asks, is the uk moving too slowly? this is again a question i have been asked over and over again. we don't classify governments as slow or fast. what we do ask governments and what we have asked governments as of yesterday, that was our chief message when characterising it as a pandemic, before you were saying get ready, now we are saying, get serious. we are asking all governments to look at what they can do to stop transmission in their communities. we ask them to look at preventing, detecting and protecting. and what we mean by preventing is all the advice that is being given, that we have been giving about hand hygiene, environmental hygiene, about social distancing. detecting, offering

people the opportunity to be tested, finding the people who are infected, finding the people who are infected, finding the people around them who have come into contact and getting those people to self—isolate. and protecting, we are really talking about protecting your health workers. they are going to be under tremendous pressure if they are not already. they need protection physically with personal protective equipment. they also need the protection of knowing that other people can back them up that they will be given the space and opportunity to work but also rest. there are lots of questions, many of which you have answered. i'm going to go through some of them. chris evans in stourbridge says, is there any evidence that coronavirus is spreading more slowly in hot countries and so may abate here in spring or summer? thank you, chris. that is a question i get over and over again. that is the one everybody wants me to comment on. u nfortu nately we everybody wants me to comment on.

unfortunately we do have outbreaks in hot countries. you would have seen the appalling bushfires in australia. they have a significant outbreak going on right now. it is still very hot. we have also seen an outbreak, it has been slow, they have done an extraordinaryjob containing it, but there is an outbreak in singapore. there are outbreaks in other hot countries. we haven't seen much in africa. we are hoping that they are still going to be able to contain it. but we are certainly seeing outbreaks in hot countries. one more question. this is from jerry in london. does the distribution of cases across the united kingdom suggest that the virus has already spread here? that isa virus has already spread here? that is a concern, yes. you do have ongoing transmission with the communities. you have clusters in different parts of the country. this is indeed the time to take it very seriously. you still have time to slow it down, to shut it down. you can all do your bit. but yes, it's in the united kingdom. dr margaret

harris, so good a you to join us. in the united kingdom. dr margaret harris, so good a you tojoin us. i know how busy you are. thank you very much. thank you for your time. it's a pleasure. i appreciate all the work you are doing at the bbc. thank you. thank you for sending in all your questions too. now time for a look at the weather. hello. it was a chilly start. it has been a chilly day with the strong wind and those showers. this was taken in neath early in the afternoon. a dusting of snow. it is no surprise because we have seen snow at relatively low levels further north in scotland. tightly packed isobars indicate it has been

windy. it remains windy. cold air across the country today. much milder in the south yesterday and of the day before. colder air to come. the strength of the wind has been notable across northern ireland and northern england. it continues into the evening rush hour. also parts of scotla nd the evening rush hour. also parts of scotland and wales. that pushes east and retaining squally conditions. it has felt colder as well. there is no let up as we go into the evening and at first overnight it will remain chilly. if anything the area is getting colder as we pull in a pure northerly arctic air across scotland. gradually the shower activity does ease over night. clear conditions. cold conditions for many. certainly a sharper frost than last night in the north. a patchy frost in the south. showers oppose the risk of ice. otherwise a fine day. a much—needed window of drier

weather. we still have flood warnings. we have to wait until later in the day for the next rain band to come in. not wanted, u nfortu nately. band to come in. not wanted, unfortunately. the showers continue. not altogether dry on friday. showers on the east coast. later developing across parts of the midlands, south east england and eastern wales. but for most it is drier, more sunshine. the winds are light. the rain gets the scilly and cornwall late. that will push through on friday night into the early hours of saturday morning. the next pressure comes on in the weekend. some uncertainty for the weekend. some uncertainty for the weekend at the moment. it may start quite wet across parts of england and wales. the rain clears away. dry weather for a and wales. the rain clears away. dry weatherfor a time. milder weather as well. low pressure in northern ireland and scotland. the uncertainty is how quickly it will clear southwards. it may well give a wet day in parts of england and wales, sunday. please stay tuned.

hello, you're watching afternoon live — i'm simon mccoy. today at 4:00pm... two more people have died in the uk because of coronavirus, taking the number of people killed now to 10. that announcement was made as the government's emergency committee was meeting, which looks set to move into a new phase of dealing with coronavirus which could force schools to close. scotland's first minister nicola sturgeon announces precautionary measures to try and contain the outbreak — school trips will not go ahead and mass gatherings will be cancelled. the focus is very much on seeking to delay the spread, to reduce the peak impactand to delay the spread, to reduce the peak impact and to protect the most vulnerable. president trump suspends travel from 26 european