keith, we will have to ireland. keith, we will have to leave it there. thank you very much, keith doyle in belfast. good afternoon and welcome to viewers on bbc one. in the last half hour, scotland's first minister nicola sturgeon has said that a decision has been taken to move from the contain phase to delay phase in the coronavirus outbreak to try to reduce the numbers of people infected at any one time. the aim of this she said was to try and protect the elderly and those with other health conditions as much as possible. her comments came as the government's emergency cobra committee met this afternoon to discuss coronavirus. we're still waiting to hear from them but we're expecting an update shortly. ten people have died in the uk so far after being tested for the virus and there are 590 cases, a rise of 134 on yesterday, the largest daily increase since the outbreak began.

nicola sturgeon was speaking in edinburgha nicola sturgeon was speaking in edinburgh a short time ago. the decision has been taken that we have now moved from a contain phase into the delay phase where the objective is to seek to slow down the spread of the virus and to reduce the numbers who will be infected at the peak, the numbers infected at any one time. that is clearly important in terms of trying to alleviate the pressure at any one time that is placed on our national health service. and another key focus of that, and indeed later phases of the response to the virus, will be to protect those groups in society that the early data tells us are more at risk of developing serious illness. i should reiterate that the vast majority of people who get this

infection will suffer mild symptoms that they will recover from quickly. ms sturgeon also said any decision on whether to close schools has not yet been made, in light of the anticipated move from the contain phase amid the coronavirus outbreak, to the delay phase. local authorities and schools that we are now advising that overseas school trips should not be going ahead. i understand that the foreign & commonwealth office will issue travel advice that aligns with that position. i want to address briefly theissue position. i want to address briefly the issue of school closures more generally. it is not the advice right now that schools should close, oi’ right now that schools should close, or indeed colleges or universities require to close. that is not what we are advising at this stage. although that is an issue that will be kept under at very close and ongoing review. it might be helpful

to expand on that point a little bit to expand on that point a little bit to give some of the rationale, that is informed and guided by the scientific advice we have access to. a couple of practical issues. obviously closing schools has a very direct effect on the ability to keep workers at work. there is also a view that closing schools will lead to children gathering in more informal settings which actually might be more of a risk of them contracting the infection. because unlike in the schools where hand hygiene protocols can be followed, that would not be the case. that was nicola sturgeon. our political correspondent iain watson is in westminster. the cobra meeting has finished now. we expect to hear from the prime minister soon. that's right. the cobra emergency meeting lasted for nearly two hours and was chaired by the prime minister himself. we expect to hear from the prime minister this afternoon in downing

street, flanked as ever by the experts, by england's chief medical officer and his chief scientific adviser as well. we expect him to say that it has been decided we are moving from the containment phase to the delay phase when dealing with the delay phase when dealing with the coronavirus crisis. it's also important to stress that we are not expecting the prime minister to say he is following the lead from ireland or other european countries and immediately moved to school closures or banning large gatherings. we do expect to hear more advice for elderly and vulnerable people, people with underlying health conditions and what they ought to do over the next few weeks. i think there will be advice on more people working from home. also if people have certain symptoms, even though they have not been tested for the virus, they will been tested for the virus, they will be advised to stay at home for up to seven days, something the chief medical officer talked about a few days ago, that this could be a possibility. we are expecting all that to happen this afternoon. but

there is, if not scientific pressure, then political pressure on the prime minister and he will likely be asked questions about why he is not doing what nicola sturgeon is doing in scotland, banning large gatherings like football and rugby matches, to try to free up emergency workers, ambulance crews and police who could be better used, as she sees it, elsewhere. he will likely be asked questions about how the scientific advice can be so different in ireland than elsewhere and what kind of difference we might see across the border in the island of ireland with schools closing on one side and perhaps staying open for the time being elsewhere. i think the overarching message we will get from the government is that this is a marathon and not a sprint. inside the government they expect cases to peak towards the end of may and they feel if they ask people to do things too early then they will experience fatigue, get fed up and be far more likely to stick with the advice given if it is closer to the

peak when they are potentially more danger of catching the virus. and if they can effectively put that peak off until the summer then it will free up some pressures off until the summer then it will free up some pressures on off until the summer then it will free up some pressures on the nhs and give them a chance to get in equipment and resources. there is huge pressure on the prime minister given the announcement in ireland, dublin, this morning, from the taoiseach saying schools will close. and also elsewhere in europe. will he get boxed in? he will say he is following the science. i think visually we will see him flanked by those experts. in that sense he has some coverfor those experts. in that sense he has some cover for what he is doing. those experts. in that sense he has some coverfor what he is doing. he also wants to minimise social and economic effects of the virus on the country. where he comes under pressure is because of other parts of the uk doing things differently. the chief medical officer in wales for example was stressing the potential difficulties of this crisis. privately some scientific advisers are saying, in terms of the science, banning football matches

for example, isn't a desperately effective measure, but politically it might be something politicians wa nt to it might be something politicians want to look at. so far there has been broadly speaking a consensus between the main parties at westminster, but increasingly mps are beginning to ask those kinds of questions, why are some countries like denmark, ireland and the czech republic are taking measures that we are not. emergency legislation to give ministers the power to do some of these things further down the line will be laid before parliament next week. there has already been a discussion today between the health secretary and his labour opposite numberand secretary and his labour opposite number and there is still disagreement between the two parties on sick pay. i think some tensions are fraying. the labour leadership contender rebecca long—bailey has said there has been a woeful response to treating workers during the crisis. the political pressure on the prime minister will increase but i think if he says he is sticking to scientific evidence and we sticking to scientific evidence and we will try to get people to take action when it is most effective, then for the time being that'll give him quitea

then for the time being that'll give him quite a bit of cover. but difficult questions are likely to be asked when he faces the press later this afternoon. iain watson in downing street, you. we will bring you the latest from there later. you the latest james gallagher is with me now... james gallagher is with me now... the medical advice remains the same for everyone it does. everybody should be making sure they keep their hands clean. regular hand washing with soap and water, that's the cornerstone of the advice because that will minimise your risk of transmission. we might see extra things come in today. we don't know, but we are now eagerly awaiting what borisjohnson, as well as the chief scientific adviser and chief medical officer will advise as part of this transition towards the delay phase of the outbreak in the uk. what exactly were those details be? i agree with a lot of what iain watson said, we are hearing similar things

particularly around schools and the likelihood we will not see mass school closures. but may be more people working from home, or certainly advise to if possible. other methods of safeguarding the most vulnerable in society because the one thing we know for certain coming out of china and other countries that have been affected, you see this quite pronounced age relationship with the disease. the older you are, the more likely it is to bea older you are, the more likely it is to be a deadly infection. yes, it can to be a deadly infection. yes, it ca n affect to be a deadly infection. yes, it can affect anybody of any age, and it could be fatal for anyone of any age but the older you are, the more likely the risk. in terms of school closures and measures like that, what is the medical evidence to suggest that might work? looking at something like seasonal flu and influenza. you do see some evidence that closing schools can have an impact on reducing transmission of the disease. but you have to do think of a bigger picture. because you have to factor in how long you

will close schools for and when, because you need to make sure you time the measures when they will be most effective. james gallaher earth, thank you very much. —— most effective. james gallaher earth, thank you very much. —— james gallagher, thank you very much. welcome to our viewers who've just joined us from bbc world... dr margaret harris from the world health organisation took viewers' questions a little earlier and explained why it's not possible to say how long the pandemic will last. this is a new virus and the science is evolving as we speak. we have seen it move very rapidly through many communities. why we characterised it as a pandemic yesterday is because we now do see it throughout the world and we do expect intensification in a number of countries. we would like to see that intensification not happen. but we that intensification not happen. but we do expect this to continue for quite some time, but i can't give you an exact date. i wasn't going to

ask for one, don't worry. we don't know the situation in malaysia but we know the situation in malaysia but we had a message from a viewer in malaysia asking about the worst case scenario. you must have modelled this out. yes, there have been many models and we have heard from huge numbers of people who could be infected if we don't slow down. the worst case scenario actually is when that 15%, the people who get a really severe illness, haven't got a chance to get the care they need. remember, this is an illness you can recover from but if you have the seve re recover from but if you have the severe form then you need intensive ca re severe form then you need intensive care and that requires big teams of doctors, big teams of nurses, high—tech equipment, ventilators. other ancillary staff, cleaners, ambulance workers, and they have to work around the clock. and it takes five or six weeks for people to recover. so if you have too many people who need that kind of care,

if you have allowed your outbreak to get too big, then that's when you really are in very big trouble.|j know you will not give a date on the end of it, but another view asks, how will the pandemic eventually end? another good question. it will end? another good question. it will end when we all commit to doing the things we know work. social distancing, hand hygiene, environmental hygiene. perhaps we all need to work and think differently. we may all need to work at home more. we may also need to be more careful with hygienic practices and in ourown more careful with hygienic practices and in our own canteen in the who it ta kes a and in our own canteen in the who it takes a long time to get fed because a lot of people are careful about distancing, managing the food and the utensils. we will have to accept that we have to live differently. it will end, but it's not clear

exactly, and i suppose you are also asking if we will declare an end. no, because we didn't declare a beginning, we simply characterised it. as the numbers come down and the outbreaks lesson, we will also characterise that and let you know. you said it takes five or six weeks to recover. do we know you can't then catch it again? there have been some interesting studies which have shown that people, when they drop their viral load, get it to quite a low level, so the test doesn't pick it up. and then a couple of days later the test does pick it up. it's not clear whether that is simply because they are at a sort of level thatis because they are at a sort of level that is difficult for the test to read, and we do not think that is reinfection. we do think they are reaching the end of the illness. but with many viral illnesses, the virus hangs around a bit longer. this is something we are learning more about

everyday. a viewer in bromsgrove asks about worldwide pandemics before where we have not had to go into lockdown or isolation. what is different about this one? it is a new virus. that's the big difference. it is a new virus and our immune systems have no knowledge of the virus. even with most flu viruses we have in our body is a bit of experience. when the flu virus changes dramatically, that is when your body doesn't have any experience, but at least we have the mechanism to get a vaccine out more quickly and we do have treatment with flu. with this one, we don't have any of those tools. so we are back stuck with the old—fashioned methods that we do know work. they are drastic, but they do work. doctor margaret harris talking to me from geneva from the world health organization. we can show you the podium in downing street where we are awaiting a news conference from

the prime minister borisjohnson following that emergency cobra meeting. we expect him to make the latest announcements on how the british government intends to tackle the coronavirus outbreak. we are keeping an eye on that and as soon as he takes to the podium we will head straight over there. in the meantime we can speak to health correspondent james gallagher. listening to the world health organization, what is clear is we still don't know a lot about the virus. this virus was first detected in december and it is only march. it has affected more than 100,000 people. the who has declared that a pandemic. however, we can't avoid the fact that this is a largely unknown entity. it is quite contagious and can be deadly in the rea rrest contagious and can be deadly in the rearrest cases, but still we know so

little about it. that's one of the challenges and why we are anticipating a move into the delay fees. every single day, there is more and more research taking place on this virus. we are a step closer to understanding what the best treatments are, to getting into a vaccine, to knowing how to prepare our hospitals in order to cope with an influx of patients. that's why buying time for such an unknown entity is such an important thing. we expect the prime minister to announce a move to delay, is that because we expect it will be less lethal in warmer weather? no, it's about the national health service in the united kingdom being overwhelmed if it happens in winter. you get a natural fluctuation and busyness throughout the year, due to winter bugs and influenza. the peak over winter and calm down over the

summer. if you can get the coronavirus to hit hardest in the summer, the health services in a better position. it underlines the position of the prime minister. that has been announced in ireland. that will put more pressure on the nhs because they have families as well. you cannot underestimate the wider impact of closing schools and nurseries. all of those children have parents. nurseries. all of those children have pa rents. if nurseries. all of those children have parents. if they are not in school, the parents need to look after them. i'm not anticipating that today we are going to be told that today we are going to be told that schools will cause because all the talk has been the scientific evidence is not there. i'm prepared to be told i'm wrong in a couple of minutes, but as far as we know, we are not going to see school closures. partly that's because the impact of closing schools is not necessarily as big as you think it might be. and what to do children do if they are not in school? if they all go to the friends house to play,

they will still spread the virus as before. explain the advice to the public about what they can do, individual responsibility in fighting this virus. the responsibility lies on all of us in terms of containing the coronavirus. the main thing we can do is look after these. if we wash our hands with soap and water far more regularly than most of us are used to, for 20 seconds, singing happy birthday twice, that will minimise the risk of you having any virus on your hands. one of the main ways you can catch the virus is to touch a contaminated surface such as a desk and then rub your eyes. the other way is to cough and droplets are released into the air. then someone else could breathe in the virus. that's why the advice is to ideally cough or sneeze into a tissue and then bin that tissue and wash your

hands. otherwise, cough into this pa rt hands. otherwise, cough into this part of your elbow so that your hands remain uncontaminated. apart from that, stay away from people who are already looking quite sick. that leads me to what other symptoms? what tells you this is just not an ordinary called? one of the challenges as this is so new an infection there is still some argument about what the full spectrum of symptoms are. in terms of the ones we know for certain, a dry cough and a fever in the mildest cases. a temperature and a cough where you are not bringing anything up. that's the core symptoms of this infection. now, that can progress and not everybody will, to a more seve re and not everybody will, to a more severe lung infection and you start struggling to breathe itself because your body are struggling to get enough oxygen out of the air and into your bloodstream because your lungs are not working as efficiently as they should be. shortness of breath is another symptom. it can progress to be far more severe, but

we are now progress to be far more severe, but we are now talking about the very rea rrest we are now talking about the very rearrest cases, and that's where it can lead to multiple organ failure because your immune system is acting so powerfully to the virus inside your lungs that it is causing damage to the rest of the body. that's why it's more dangerous for the oldest people and those already sick. if you already have a weak heart or lung, and add on this overarching immune system effect, that's when it can become more deadly. james, thank you. let's go back to downing street. we are still waiting on some information about a news conference. let's go outside number ten and speak to let's go outside number ten and speakto iain let's go outside number ten and speak to iain watson there is therefore as now. this is a very difficult balance the prime minister is going to have to strike your, isn't it? it is. the significance of the pictures you can see inside downing street are those three podiums. the prime minister will be in the middle, flanked by the chief

medical officer in england and the chief scientific adviser. he is effectively seeing the response is led by science. he is trying to create political space because he is under pressure under parts of the uk. nicola sturgeon, the scottish first minister, has decided that from next week gatherings of more than 500 people will be banned, such as football matches, rugby matches and so on, to free up the emergency services for other work. we know of course in ireland they will be closing schools and childcare facilities from 6p on this evening. again, the prime ministerwill facilities from 6p on this evening. again, the prime minister will be under pressure to tell us why he is not taking that approach here. you will be relying on medical and scientific advisers to tell us why they are putting faith in the current approach. effectively, the overarching message we will hear in a few minutes from the prime minister is that dealing with the coronavirus crisis is a marathon, not a sprint. they are expecting

cases to peak towards the end of may. therefore they don't want to introduce too much of a draconian approach too much at this stage, asking people to take restrictions with their everyday lives which they don't believe people will be able to sustain. they might get fed up with it. we want people to effectively do things when the virus reaches its peak and at that stage try to keep themselves safe. so we will see some advice for the elderly and the most vulnerable, those with underlying health conditions today. and there will be specific advice for people showing some of the symptoms you are talking about, the dry cough and so on. if you're getting those symptoms, stay at home for seven days. there will be a ramping up of the government's approach. they will be explaining why they are not taking the same approach as ireland, denmark or some of the other countries such as the czech republic or slovakia up with the introduced new restrictions today on gatherings

and foreign travel. they will be seeing they are led fundamentally by the science and that means they will do things when they are at their most effective. we may get a preview of the emergency legislation being introduced at the house of commons next week. the purpose of that is not to do some of these things immediately but to give the government the powers it needs, for example to temporarily suspend restrictions on class sizes of schools subsequently have to close our ban large gatherings. the message will once again be about taming and following the medical evidence. i've just taming and following the medical evidence. i'vejust seen taming and following the medical evidence. i've just seen the electoral commission is saying that all local elections in the uk should be postponed. it's a bit incongruous that schoolchildren behind you are gathering to have their photograph taken, whereas inside we could have an announcement of school closures. they will not be announcing school closures at this time. that approach

is action they may have to take, but i would be very surprised if they we re i would be very surprised if they were to be getting in step with the republic of ireland on school closures at this stage. i think you will weigh up the social and economicjust benefits will weigh up the social and economic just benefits of will weigh up the social and economicjust benefits of doing something like that. local elections we re something like that. local elections were scheduled for may. we are now talking about the virus peaking in may. labour's special conference where the will announce a new labour leader on the 4th of april is also being cancelled. they will not cancel the leadership election itself, we will still get the result, but they are not going to have that special conference. what we are going to see throughout society, when he makes it clear we have moved from the attempt to contain two now trying to delay the

peak, to take the pressure off the health service, we will see lots of individuals and groups making their own decisions about how to react, including more people i think working from home and organisers of events cancelling them, even if that advice from the government isn't that this will necessarily stave off the virus, it might not be effective, but i think a lot of people will feel under pressure and feel responsibility to be seen to be doing something. to feel the atmosphere of this country starting to change, as a result of that announcement from the cobra meeting to move from the containment to delete fees. iain watson, thank you. just to update you, two more people have died after testing positive in the uk, bringing the total number of deaths to ten. there are now 596 confirmed cases in the uk. 20 in northern ireland and 25 in wales.

still waiting on a news conference from downing street. it's not far off, by the look of it. we will of course take you straight over there when that gets under way. in the meantime, let's go to belfast. keith doyle is therefore us. as we were hearing from ian, a dramatic decision from the irish taoiseach this morning. this is a virus that does not respect borders. it's rather strange what is happening on the island of ireland. absolutely. leo varadkar the island of ireland. absolutely. leo va radkar announced schools the island of ireland. absolutely. leo varadkar announced schools and colleges will be closed from tomorrow until march 29. also calls for limits on the gathering of people, 100 people indoors or 500 people, 100 people indoors or 500 people outdoors, they should be cancelled. the dramatic announcement by the irish taoiseach was made from washington. he made the announcement

before sunrise. it was a relieved right across ireland very quickly and now the other implementations, he asked people to continue to go to work but if the candy should work from home. they have asked bosses and businesses to try to stagger work times and breaks. basically do whatever they can to stop interaction between members of their workforce. shops, they can stay open, so can restaurants. presumably pubs as well, but they've asked for them to implement social distancing, basically do whatever they can to keep their customers at a distance from their staff. you are right when you see this virus does not respect borders. these actions have been taken south of the border in the republic of ireland. north of the border, schools and at the moment still open. health officials here in

northern ireland have said we are not in the same place because in the republic of ireland there have been community infections. here, that has not happened. anyone who has been infected has been in touch with someone who has been on one of the infected areas. leo varadkar said this will be a real shock for people and he ended his statement saying we have experienced hardship and struggle before, but we will prevail. keith doyle, thank you very much. keith doyle in belfast. we still await news conference in downing street. the room is full of journalists, they are waiting for the arrival of the prime minister and senior advisers. medical advisers. we will return to that. i just want to bring in our health correspondent james gallagher once again. what we are looking at here is obviously huge pressure on the nhs, but we need to talk about social care because those most vulnerable, the elderly and those with underlying illnesses, many of them are in care homes and they themselves are under huge pressure.

exactly. throughout this, the person i'm most worried about is my grandmother who is in a nursing home. we know there is an age relationship with this virus. the older you are, the more likely it is to bea older you are, the more likely it is to be a deadly infection if you end up to be a deadly infection if you end up contracting the virus. this is one of the things we will look to, to see what measures have been put in place to ensure the oldest members of society are best protected. we know we have a big problem in this country with the nhs and social care, so you end up being overwhelmed by the oldest and sickest people and knowing how to look after them in the best we can bea look after them in the best we can be a challenge. you end up with a social care system which can struggle. this isn't all about care homes, it's about people in their own homes who have carers coming to see them as well. making sure that we see them as well. making sure that we minimise the risk of those people being infected in the first place but also then have the systems in place as a country to look after them if they are is a challenge. and of course they rely on visitors,

family members, many of whom will be questioning whether it is right to go. for elderly people with dementia, this is a frightening time. what you have to think about is what would you do at any other time if there was an infection? if you were time if there was an infection? if you were ill, who looks after your mother, your grandmother or whoever it is at that time? that's the kind of thing you have to fall back on here, really. because you are right. if you're showing some of the symptoms of coronavirus, the advice will be for you to self—isolate at home and that will mean that you can't be that person that goes out to ca re can't be that person that goes out to care for a sick relative. now, that could be grandparent, that could be, you know, a distant relative who relies on you. we know there is a huge amount of caring responsibility in this society and this will be one of the impact of coronavirus. we've been taking questions all day across the bbc. what are the main concern is that

the public have over this? well, i think one of the challenges here is the huge degree of uncertainty. and some of the most basic questions. some of the questions i've been asked steady comeback to things like word of the coronavirus come from? cani word of the coronavirus come from? can i get the coronavirus twice? do you immunity from it? this is the challenge, the public are asking questions that journalists, scientists and people at the top of government are asking, because there is still a challenge year when you have a completely new infection. sometime around about december the 1st people were infected and they caught it from is an animal in china. since then, it's gone around the world. more than 100 countries infected. and there are still very basic questions we don't have a nswe rs basic questions we don't have a nswers to. basic questions we don't have answers to. and one of those is when will we have a vaccine? and when will we have a vaccine? and when will we have a vaccine that can actually be given to large numbers

of people which is a different question. there are laboratories in london that have samples of a potential vaccine being tested on animals right now. the problem is you have to go through a process of safety testing. is the potential vaccine safe and then you need to know if it will work in humans. that process is expected to take probably until the end of this year. even if we until the end of this year. even if we did have an effective vaccine, even we did have an effective vaccine, evenif we did have an effective vaccine, even if that was safe, how do you mass—produce it to get it to the most number of people? that's why we are not anticipating a vaccine until midway through next year, quite frankly. world health organization have designated this as a pandemic. has that changed anything? not really, no. it just has that changed anything? not really, no. itjust describes the situation were facing, quite frankly. it hasn't changed anything because who's biggest red button they can press is declaring a global health emergency and they did that over a month ago.

health emergency and they did that overa month ago. singh health emergency and they did that over a month ago. singh gets a pandemic is describing the global situation. even though the world health organization says it is a pandemic, that doesn't mean there is nothing countries can do. it's part of the reason why we are on your today because we are about to find out some more detail about what united kingdom is going to do about coronavirus and how you minimise the impact of this pandemic. again, many people might find that strange that it's down to individual countries to make those sort of decisions. were talking about something global, it's the same virus across the world, and yet individual governments are making up their own minds about how to cope with it? there is advice coming globally, but the risk for each country is not the same. we are not in the same position as italy today, were not in the same position as the would—be province in china was in january. as the would—be province in china was injanuary. there is a constant risk assessment. —— wuhan in china.

taming this is really important. if we are taming this is really important. if we are entering the delay fees, then you are seeing how can i mix it hits at the best time for the country as at the best time for the country as a whole. the prime minister has had a whole. the prime minister has had a meeting with cobra. remind us what it is and who was on the panel. make it is and who was on the panel. make it stick emergency —— it is the emergency committee and is often chaired by the prime minister or the health secretary. today, the transport secretary was there, and

also it gives the prime minister a chance to avail himself of the latest medical advice. at the press co nfe re nce latest medical advice. at the press conference i expect we will be told what they discussed for nearly two hours at cobra. we are now moving into the delay fees, rather than the containment phase, but it's still not entirely clear what that means. for example, we are not expecting immediate school closures. we are not expecting an immediate ban on large gatherings, something which the scottish government intends to do from next week. there will be political pressure on the prime minister thrown to explain players a different approach than in different parts of the world. a travel ban has

spectacularly been announced in america. the position the prime minister is taking is he wants to get away from talking about the virus, but there are lots of different approaches being taken. banning flights, were they will point to italy. there are more cases there than anywhere else in europe and they were one of the first countries to ban flights from china. it isa countries to ban flights from china. it is a marathon, not a sprint. it is perhaps bad for individuals and the economy to get people to restrict their everyday life. there

will be advice for the elderly and the vulnerable. we will all be told that if we get some of these symptoms, we should take a week off work if you get a dry cough. some of the measures taken by ireland and other countries such as closing schools and childcare, the emphasis will be this could happen further down the line. if emergency legislation is to be taken next week, that will be announced. two things happening this afternoon. the electoral commission is writing to the government and seeing the local elections in may in many parts of england should be postponed until the autumn. and the labour leadership conference, the special co nfe re nce leadership conference, the special conference to announce the new labour leader has been scrapped. the contest goes on, but the conference does not. as i was mentioning, in

scotland, taking that decision to prevent large gatherings. so lots of things are happening irrespective of the government's advice, but as far as the government is concerned, they wa nt as the government is concerned, they want to freeze the approach and only ramped up when absolutely necessary. forgive me, we want to get some news from james gallagher. the briefing has not happened, but we are getting some details through. the government will be moving on to the next stage of the coronavirus action plan and that means that from tomorrow all people with flu—like symptoms, so that's a fever above 37.8 degrees or a persistent cough, will be asked to self—isolate at home for seven days. all school trips abroad are to be banned. older people and those with pre—existing health conditions, i could be heart failure, are going to be advised not to go on cruises. there will be some advice as to what

is going to happen as we near the peak, more likely to be towards the end of me. all the people and those with health conditions will be told to cut social contact and stay—at—home. if any member of the household feels ill, then the whole household feels ill, then the whole household should be self isolating. tomorrow, flu—like symptoms, fever or cough, self—isolate for a week. school trips abroad to be banned. all the people and those with pre—existing health conditions are going to be told not to go on cruise holidays. lots of people send in questions and from around the world. i want to bring you one from peter jenkins. if no public health measures are introduced, what would the likely outcome be compared to seasonal flu? we're the likely outcome be compared to seasonal flu ? we're not the likely outcome be compared to seasonalflu? we're not talking about full here. one of the biggest myths is this is just about full here. one of the biggest myths is this isjust like about full here. one of the biggest myths is this is just like an ordinary seasonal flu. this myths is this is just like an ordinary seasonalflu. this is more deadly. it is more comparable to a

deadly. it is more comparable to a deadly pandemic flu. if you do nothing, you would have a virus that spreads freely through a population. the upper estimates of that would be about 80% of people would be infected. if we did nothing in a worst—case scenario. i'm not saying that's what will happen in the uk. that's a number of people you're talking about being infected in the uk, a significant number of people. we don't anticipate that happening because measures are being introduced, some of the ones i've just described, and in the long term the hopers we will have a vaccine that will protect people from infected as well. as you can see, we are waiting for the prime minister to give an update on the british approach to tackling the coronavirus. here indeed becomes borisjohnson will hear from him now. good afternoon, everybody, and

thank you very much for coming. i've just chaired a meeting of the emergency committee, including ministers from wales, scotland and northern ireland. it's clear that coronavirus, covid—19, continues and will continue to spread across the world and our country over the next few months. we've done what can be done to contain this disease and this has brought us valuable time. but it's now a global pandemic and the number of cases will rise sharply to stop indeed the true number of cases is higher perhaps, much higher, than the number of cases we much higher, than the number of cases we have so far confirmed with tests. we need to be clear. this is the worst public health crisis for a generation. some people compare it to seasonal flu. alas, generation. some people compare it to seasonalflu. alas, that generation. some people compare it to seasonal flu. alas, that is generation. some people compare it to seasonalflu. alas, that is not right. owing to the lack of immunity, this disease is more

dangerous and it is going to spread further and i must level with you, level with the british public, more families are going to lose loved ones before their time. the chief scientific adviser will set out the best information we have on that in a moment. as we have said over the last few weeks, we have a clear plan that we are now working through. we are now getting onto the next phase in that plan because this is now not just an attempt to contain the disease, as far as possible, but to delay its spread and thereby minimise the suffering. if we delay the peak even by a few weeks, then our nhs will be in a stronger state as the weather improves and fewer people suffer from normal respiratory diseases, more beds are available and we have more time for medical research. we can also act to

stretch the peak of the disease over a longer period, so that our society is better able to cope. the chief medical officer will set out our lines of defence. we have to deploy these at the right time to maximise their effect. the most important task will be to protect our elderly and most vulnerable people during the peak weeks, when there is the maximum risk of exposure to the disease and when the nhs is under the most pressure. so the most dangerous period does not know, but some weeks away, depending on how fast it spreads. today, therefore, we are fast it spreads. today, therefore, we are moving forward with a plan. from tomorrow, if you have coronavirus symptoms, however mild, either a new continuous cough or a high temperature, then you should

stay at home for at least seven days, to protect others and help slow the spread of the disease. we advise all those over 70 with serious medical conditions against going on cruises and we advise against international school trips. at some point in the next few weeks, we are at some point in the next few weeks, we are likely to go further and if someone in a household has no symptoms, we will be asking everyone in that household to stay—at—home. we are not introducing this measure yet, for reasons sir patrick will explain, but i want to signal now that this is coming down the track. we are considering the question of banning major public events such as sporting fixtures. the scientific advice, as we have said over the last couple of weeks, is that banning such events will have little effect on the spread. but there is

also the issue of the burden that such events can place on public services. so we such events can place on public services. so we are such events can place on public services. so we are discussing these issues with colleagues in all parts of the united kingdom and we will have more to say shortly about the timing of further action in that respect. at all stages, we have been guided by the science and we will do the right thing at the right time. we are not, repeat not, closing schools now. the scientific advice is this could do more harm than good at this time but of course we are keeping this under review and this, again, may change as the disease spreads. schools should only close if they are specifically advised to do so and that remains our advice. there

is no escaping the reality that these measures will cause severe disruption across our country for many months. the best scientific advice is that this will cope us slow the disease and save lives. they will be detailed information available on the nhs website and from 111 online, but i want to stress something that's very important in the wake of what we are saying this afternoon. i urge people who think, in view of what we are saying about their potential symptoms, that they should stay—at—home, i urge them not to call 111 but to use the internet for information. if they can. i also wa nt information. if they can. i also want at this stage to speak directly to order people, because this disease is particularly dangerous for you, for older people, even

though the vast majority of older people will experience a mild to moderate illness, i know that many people will be very worried. and i think we should all be thinking about our elderly relatives, the more vulnerable members of our family, our neighbours, and everything we can do to protect them over the next few months. we are going to need to mobilise millions of people to help and support each other and ijust of people to help and support each other and i just want you to of people to help and support each other and ijust want you to know that the government will do all we can to help you and your family during this period. we are notjust going to be, as you saw yesterday, supporting the economy during this period. we will be providing money and many other forms of support and helping communities to support each other. and as we have done over the last few weeks, we will continue to

provide, as soon as we have it, as much clear scientific and medical information as we can. i would like to and by repeating the two important messages which will become familiar. it is still vital, perhaps more vital than ever, that we remember to wash our hands and, lastly of course, even if things seem tough now, just remember that we seem tough now, just remember that we will get through this. this country will get through this epidemicjust as it has got through many tougher experiences before, if we many tougher experiences before, if we look out for each other and commit wholeheartedly to a full national effort, and i would live in sir patrick vallance —— like to thank sir patrick vallance, our chief scientific adviser, to set out

the latest facts and the state of play as he sees it. this is a new disease and none of us have immunity to it, as the prime minister has said, and that is a key part of what we're looking at here. it is entering a new phase. the who has called this a global pandemic and we are entering a delay phase. it is important to reckon as the —— recognise the contained face has had in effect to delay things up until now. and currently, we are on a trajectory that looks as though it is about four weeks or so behind italy and others in europe. that means that we have now reached a stage when, i just means that we have now reached a stage when, ijust want to show you ona stage when, ijust want to show you on a slide, if it will appear, here we go... this is the shape of an

epidemic. you have gone on the bottom with some time with not much happening, and that is probably where we are now. there are currently 590 cases that have been identified in the uk, and there are more than 20 patients on intensive ca re more than 20 patients on intensive care units. if you cuckolded what that really means in terms of the -- if —— if you calculated, more than 5000 people infected the moment. we have identified 590, the same sort of ratios and other countries depending on what other testings they have done. that is still a relatively small number. as these curves start to take off, as more people get it, they take off quite steeply. and thatis they take off quite steeply. and that is like timing is so important. what you want to do is to protect people during the most infectious period, andl people during the most infectious period, and i will expand that in just a minute. we're in a period now

when we got some but it has not taken when we got some but it has not ta ken off. the when we got some but it has not taken off. the actions that we need to take our to try to do two things, it is to delay the peak and to push the peak down. so we are trying to reduce the number of cases at any one time. that's very important for nhs in orderto one time. that's very important for nhs in order to make the nhs able to cope with this. and it's also important because it pushes it out into summer months, or the nhs is less busy but also where there may be less transmission of virus, respiratory infections in general tend to be less common. so that is one aim, to change the shape of this, and it's important to recognise it is not to stop everybody getting it. you cannot do that. it is not possible to stop everybody getting it stuck and it is also not desirable because you want some immunity in the population. we

need to have immunity to protect yourself from this in the future. the second big game that we need to look for is how, in that, we protect the vulnerable and the elderly, who are at most risk of serious illness and dying from this. the way this disease appears is you have five days of viral illness and a small proportion of people get a second phase where they have some sort of immune response to it was because of the damage, and the elderly and the sick are much more like they did get that, so during the period of peak transmission, we need to protect them at that phase. and if you look at the curves, it becomes obvious if you do that at the moment, you not protecting anyone because the number of cases are too small. if you do it at the right time, you're protecting them over the peak and you not asking them to be in isolation for too long. similarly, with the idea of households going into complete isolation, that comes a bit later,

when you have more cases coming up. at the moment, if you asked households to completely isolate if one person is ill, most people would not be ill with coronavirus, and what happens then is the effect of that wanes because people get fed up with doing this and you end up not able to do it time and time again. the timing is true across all of the interventions we have looked at. this is why this is the package of things we need to happen at the right time and in the right phasing. in terms of mass gatherings and schools, schools, it is true, there is some effect in closing but that is some effect in closing but that is minimal, and you would have to do it in13 to is minimal, and you would have to do it in 13 to 15 weeks or longer, and you don't have to bea be a mathematician to work out the chances of getting children to stop speaking to each other for 13 to 15 weeks is minimal... might end up

with children staying with grandparents at a time when they might be most vulnerable. our hanover —— i will hand over to the chief medical officer to explain in more detail the measures being proposed. i willjust amplify a few of the points that have just been made. first of all, we are clearly now stopping the contained phase of this operation that we have always said from the beginning, there are four stages to this, contain, delay, mitigate and research, and contain finishes from today. fantastic or has been done by my colleagues at the nhs and public health across all four nations. and as a result of that, finding the early cases reported, isolating them with the consent of the people involved for which we are very grateful and following the chains of transmission. that has helped to slow down the seating of this virus and is pushed out in time so the

delay has already begun as a result of the work of our colleagues and the public spiritedness of the people who came forward for testing. but now we move onto the next phase andl but now we move onto the next phase and i think that has made very clear their effect the world health organisation yesterday declared this asa organisation yesterday declared this as a global pandemic and today the four uk cmos agreed we should raise the risk in the uk. in terms of what people can do to make sure we have the smallest impact from this epidemic that is possible, we need to do this, do the right things at the right time. and just to add one point to the reasons that sir patrick hasjust point to the reasons that sir patrick has just given, point to the reasons that sir patrick hasjust given, if point to the reasons that sir patrick has just given, if people point to the reasons that sir patrick hasjust given, if people go too early, they become very fatigued. this is going to be a long haul. it is very important we do not start things in advance of needs. there are several things we will need to do in due course but it is

not appropriate do at this stage. i will come onto one of them at the end. the things we can do now, we cannot emphasise too much the point about washing hands. that is actually incredibly powerful public health intervention but the new things from today are to ask anybody who has a cough, that is continuous and new, or a who has a cough, that is continuous and new, ora temperature, for who has a cough, that is continuous and new, or a temperature, for those who measure their temperature, 37.8. some people will do it based on having a feeling. we wish those people to stay at home for seven days. the reason for this, and i wanted to be clear about this, because we are asking people to do sunday which will interfere with their lives and interfere with their work and their social life in quite significant ways, though it is important people understand why this is going to help the national effort

to combat this virus. the first thing is that it helps to protect older and more vulnerable people who they might come directly or indirectly into contact with. the second thing is, as patrick has pointed out, this helps to reduce the peak of the epidemic so that is a lower peak, making it easier for the nhs and health services in all four nations to cope as this goes through. the third thing is that it can lead to increased delay, pushing it further into the area where the nhs is under less pressure, and giving us more time to get our countermeasures as optimal as possible. i finelyjust wanted to make a point about why it is seven days. the virus seems to have his maxim transmission around the time of the first symptoms and for two or three days afterwards and then rapidly declines so that by four days, by seven days, the great

majority of people are not infectious and it is fine for them to go back into society. you may ask why we are asking people with minor symptoms to do this and the answer is the evidence would appear to be that some people with really quite mild symptoms can spread this virus toa mild symptoms can spread this virus to a lot of people must've people with minor symptoms should stay—at—home for with minor symptoms should stay—at— home for seven with minor symptoms should stay—at—home for seven days. there is an additional point i want to reemphasize on the prime minister, which isjust as people would not normally if they had a minor sprain or other minor problem, call fernando le ntz, or other minor problem, call fernando lentz, it is important that people with dairy minor symptoms do not call one—on—one —— very minor symptoms. however, if there are symptoms that start to deteriorate and there are symptoms at which point they would seek medical care, at that point, we would want them to call covid or behave as they normally would have

done. if there is a certain point people are really worried, at that point they should call the service but doing it routinely with minor symptoms is not a useful thing to do for them and it will put a big burden on the service, making it harder for others to get through with what may be life—threatening conditions. there are a few other changes that will go alongside this post of the first of which is, it is no longer needed for us to identify every case and we will move from having testing, mainly done in homes and outpatients and walking centres, toa and outpatients and walking centres, to a situation where people who are remaining at home do not need testing and we will pivot all of the testing and we will pivot all of the testing capacity to identify people in hospitals who have got symptoms so we can pick them up early, make sure we treat them well and ensure that they don't pass on the virus to other people in hospitals, so there

will be change in the hospital and other testing systems. and finally, we will no longer have any geographical limits to who gets tested. the testing will be based on symptoms and severity, so it is no longer relevant where someone has come from. this would be people irrespective of their travel history. i want just to irrespective of their travel history. i wantjust to make irrespective of their travel history. i want just to make two points in addition to that. the first one is, the next stage, we are going to want to do a package of things which are about putting social distancing around the people who are vulnerable to our order people and those with —— who are older people and those with severe health conditions, but we do not think it is appropriate to make a national recommendation for that at the moment because this is too early in the course of the epidemic that sir patrick passed on. and if you think about what would happen if you prematurely