now on bbc news, it's panorama. it's been a week like no other. now is the time for everyone to stop nonessential contact with others. coronavirus has changed life in britain for the foreseeable future. covid—19 is real, it's here. we're already seeing patients turning up who are very unwell. incredibly high temperatures, sweating profusely... coughs. it's going to be up to all of us to keep it in check. members of the public should have a moral responsibility. health care professionals are quite literally putting their lives on the line. now there are big questions about whether the nhs can cope. this is an unprecedented public health crisis.

i absolutely know this hospital will move heaven and earth to try to meet that demand. has the government has done enough, fast enough, to save lives? i have no idea if the patients i see have coronavirus or not. panorama has been following events in the week that changed britain. this is the royal victoria infirmary in newcastle. britain's first confirmed case of covid—19 caused by coronavirus was treated here. just tie up like this? mr telford, good morning. i'm drgibbins.

i'm one of the consultants here. today they've tested another patient for coronavirus. john telford arrived complaining of a cough and fever. you're aware we've taken a test for covid—19, the coronavirus? over the next 24 hours we'll have that test result back. when i came home i felt really rough and i started to shake, and i thought "oh, it's worrying us a little bit." at the moment we're treating anyone who presents in hospital as an emergency if they have respiratory symptoms, as if they may have covid—19. and then we isolate all those patients if they need to stay in hospital. in newcastle they think this is the calm before the storm. i think we're behind the wave. we're absolutely predicting, that, you know, this time next week the picture will be completely changed for us in newcastle, and continue to feel pressured then for what we know is weeks and months, potentially.

nearly 6,000 people in the uk have now tested positive for coronavirus. all of them and the thousands more who think they might have it have been asked by the government to self—isolate. we've asked some of them to send us their video diaries from quarantine. start getting a shortness of breath. coughing a bit... cough. incredibly high temperatures, sweating profusely. head feels like it's in a vice. in my back, a kind of burning sensation. my breathing has been affected. my throat was so painful, and come the evening i was finding it really hard to breathe. it felt like my lung couldn't fill properly with oxygen. you feel as though you are getting better, and then it

comes back again. and i'm still in that cycle, even on day eight. infectious diseases expert sirjeremy farrar is one of a group of scientists advising the government. probably about 80%, eight out of ten people will have a very, very mild infection, or a flu—like syndrome where they feel, yes, ill for a few days, but then make a complete recovery. and then about 20% or so that will require some degree of hospital care, and then maybe a third of those would require intensive care. it's a huge range of infection, and in some ways that allows the virus to spread in the community almost undetected. for a very small percentage of those who catch it, coronavirus can leave them fighting for their lives. around 300 people have now died in the uk. 52—year old kimberley finlayson died after testing positive for coronavirus while on holiday in bali.

everybody i know, and we knew a lot of people, no one's met someone like kimberley. she's so generous and giving. on her way to bali three weeks ago, kimberley fell ill. what started as a temperature and mild breathing difficulties deteriorated, and she ended up in a local hospital. this spectre of coronavirus started coming in at hospital and they isolated her from all the other patients in a room and we had to gown—up every time we saw kimberley. doctors operated, to help her breathe. i could hear chaos and pandemonium and i peeked through and i could see them cpring kimberley, trying to resuscitate her. but it was way too late and kimberley unfortunately died. i mean, i can't even really imagine what was going through your mind.

ijust kissed kimberley's forehead, i spoke to her and just said "goodbye" and... there was nothing else that i could do. it's nearly two weeks since ken's wife died. he's still quarantined in their bali hotel room. people need to consider the issues of safety and the protocols that are being issued by government to prevent them getting it in the first place because it's a horrendous thing to happen to you. the deadly coronavirus pandemic began last december in the chinese city of wuhan. china's response was drastic.

the draconian measures that came in meant essentially putting wuhan, over the course of a few days and then a week, essentially, in quarantine. those measures were extraordinary in modern times. i don't think there's been a parallel at all. mobile phone footage soon showed bodies in makeshift morgues. there have now been 81,000 positive cases in china, and more than 3,000 deaths. china was able to get on top of the outbreak through this rapid action and then they were able to reduce it and contain it and now it's pretty well contained. if you wait and outbreaks build up through transmission in the community, the containment

becomes much, much harder. from china, coronavirus spread across the world — now italy is the hotspot. the whole country is in lockdown. italy's experience tells us much about what we in britain might expect. can you see me, frank? dr frank rasulo works in one of italy's leading hospitals, in a city called brescia. the past few days we had almost 600—650 covid positive patients. last week it was reported brescia had more new infections and more deaths in a single day than anywhere else in the world. we have patients obviously on ventilators and all the patients here are on mechanical ventilation — they are intubated. what's it like as a doctor dealing with patients of this number and in this constantly moving

and difficult situation? it is — i can speak for my colleagues also — absolutely overwhelming. dr rasulo says britain needs to learn lessons from italy's experience. what you have in your favour is that you've been warned, and if there is definitely one possible factor that being warned of what can actually develop and what can actually happen i'm sure that the things can be contained. i think the uk is still a few weeks behind where italy is now. we would all be guessing how many weeks, but i think everybody must be under no illusion — this will spread throughout the uk. this virus is so infectious for such a protracted period of time that inevitably it will spread through essentially every community. it's six o'clock on friday 13th march. the headlines this morning: the government is facing questions

over whether it's latest measures to stop the spread of the coronavirus go far enough. draconian measures were being taken in china, italy and elsewhere. in the uk, the government had said its response would be led by the science. it's absolutely critical in managing the spread of this virus that we take the right decisions at the right time, based on the latest and best evidence. it was crucial to find out just who'd been infected — by testing. at a gp‘s surgery in stockton on tees, dr david hodges now has to protect himself when seeing patients. patients will be brought straight into the corona room.... at the start of the outbreak, people who thought they'd been in contact with coronavirus were offered a test.

we isolate them then we get kitted up so we put the masks on, protective apron on, gloves on, hands washed... then as numbers grew testing was focused on hospital patients. and that caused problems for medics on the front line. it's very challenging at the moment. i have no idea if the patients i see have coronavirus or not. are you worried that testing is not going on and particularly for health workers? absolutely. i think we need to know how much coronavirus is in our community. i might be doing all of this and we have very few cases, or actually we might have hundreds of cases we're missing. doctors, nurses, anyone working in health and social care, if they get symptoms, they need rapid testing. so that they can either get back to work or we know that they are definitely needing to self—isolate. while some nhs staff were tested, most were not. it began to be a problem across the entire health service. we are facing another crisis

in the nhs in that we may be losing parts of the work force because we cannot yet confirm whether or not they are having symptoms consistent with coronavirus. we ended up with seven doctors down and we have an average of about 18 doctors part time at our practice and seven were not there. late last week, with both infections and deaths rising, the government announced mass testing. we're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000. panorama understands that right now the nhs can do around 10,000 tests per day. we can see now that they have ramped up for, for mass testing and with now, you know, building up relatively slowly compared with other countries you know, from a low base.

so, too little, then, too late on testing? i would say yes, a little bit too late, too little and too late. health staff here are saying they can't get tested although the government has promised that. i mean, how critical is that, for them to be tested? in a war it's your military that are your absolute vital element of fighting — in this battle it's an epic struggle really against the coronavirus, an unseen enemy. the health workers are right at the heart of the response, because we need them in this fight more than any other community. now is the time is the time for everyone to stop nonessential contact with others and to stop all unnecessary travel. we need people to start working from home where they possibly can. it was a confusing time for the british public adults asked

to work from home, while their children were still going to school. carolyn english oversees secondary schools for the harris federation in london. can you please confirm you haven't been to any of those? yes, i can confirm that. carolyn‘s schools are still open, but she doesn't know for how much longer. so she's making plans for her most vulnerable pupils. we are just going to go into the boardroom where they are having their mini cobra meeting, to discuss what happens next. we've got our core group of probably about 80 students who are very vulnerable who we will be contacting daily with key workers that they know, to check that they're 0k. all the children will get their free school meal.

the one i thought was best, the £10 voucher for a meal deal, then you get free fruit as well. the government was hoping we'd all do the right thing without being forced to. you should avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other such social venues. we are a grown—up, mature, liberal democracy where people understand very clearly the advice they've been given. the government's been criticised for sending mixed messages. and, faced with a request, not an order, many ignored it, putting lives at risk. i was initially frustrated but in the end angry to see people wandering the streets, sitting in cafes, sitting in bars, sitting in pubs. i think that the knowledge that health care professionals are quite literally putting their lives on the line should really mean that members of the public should

have a moral responsibility. across the nhs, it was becoming increasingly clear what a threat the virus is. yesterday, i had to call about 35 patients, and i would say probably about 10 of those had symptoms that possibly could be suspected covid—19. you know covid—19 is real, it's here, it's real. we are already seeing patients turning up who are very unwell, needing to go to itu. that number seems to be increasing day by day. we have never faced a situation like this before. this is an unprecedented public health crisis. we don't want to sow panic, but we are afraid. and i would say there is a lot of hope, the things i've seen my colleagues achieve in the last week have been extraordinary. care homes were also reacting to the threat.

in newcastle, many began to introduce their own safeguards for vulnerable people. so, lucy, we're standing outside your care home. why can't we go in? so we operate in the event of a breakout, we close our doors to visitors, to the external world. it's only people that are absolutely a necessity from a medical point of view or a supporting relative point of view that can come, come through our front door. i think these guys are going to be doing... what are you going to be doing? we're going to be playing some cards in the fresh air. it wasn't safe for us to film inside, so lucy agreed to take in a small camera. we are going to be making some shortbread, yes? across two care homes, there are nearly 300 residents and staff. they have no idea how long they'll have to remain in isolation. "to maxine, lots of love and happiness from tom. "although we are apart we are together for always. " love, tom. " ah, that is beautiful.

at the moment, we are keeping everyone lively, everyone upbeat, there's loads of stuff going on inside. you've made my day. and it's the real british spirit of let's all keep together, carry on and get through this, keep this at bay, is absolutely phenomenal. as the government began to ramp up its response, many people feared they might have to self—isolate. supermarket shelves began to empty. long queues have been seen at supermarkets, despite appeals for people to shop normally. this morning i got here at 5.30 and the queue was like, long. we need only three things, some water, milk and some potatoes, that's all. i didn't think that we were such a nation of shoppers. but that, i guess, is the mentality at the moment. despite reassurance, up and down the country, toilet rolls and pasta became precious commodities. supermarkets began rationing.

and that caused problems for some of the most vulnerable in society. this foodbank in newcastle is worried about supplies. i'm giein. how are you doing? i'mjane. how are you doing? nice to meet you. when we buy food, we don't need one or two tins. we have to buy boxes of tomatoes or soups or tinned veg, and you can't do that at the minute because of the limitations from the stores, so that could potentially hit us going forward. and that could affect couples like lee and samantha. it's our lifeline, basically, at the moment. yeah, it is our lifeline. due to the poverty round here, people are reliant on this place. and no one takes pride in saying that, but it's true. yeah. it's a perfect storm, in many ways.

people will be losing theirjobs. the demand and need for assistance in terms of food will increase. it's hard to forecast where things might go in the future. the government said the measures they were introducing were dictated by the science. they were saying that the outbreak could affect many thousands. but then the numbers got scary. new data suggested hundreds of thousands might die. so based on data from china, italy and elsewhere, we assessed the severity of this virus, and showed that really, what we would expect is that about 1% of people infected dying, we were projecting at least 250,000 deaths and that's over the entire course of the epidemic. equally importantly, from the functioning of the country, we were predicting that we would need up to 40,000 icu beds. intensive care, that is.

and that's eight times more than the nhs had previously been thinking they could surge to. the scientists said that if we introduced much tougher measures, it might be possible to reduce the predicted deaths to around 20,000. we think now that we must apply further downward pressure on that upward curve by closing the schools. at the harris academy bermondsey in london, year 11 pupils havejust been told they are being sent home, and don't know when school might start again. i cried. when i heard the news i actually started crying. i was confused. i was like, what? the last day of school. they can't be out of learning for five months.

we'll end up with children dropping out of school, not being able to re—engage properly. so we need to give them a purpose and a sense of what's next really quickly. the government also said gcse exams would be cancelled. when i saw the teachers crying as well. it's, like, you've never seen them cry. psychologically, this is a big thing. five years' worth of work all gone. suddenly their purpose is all gone. and we know that purpose is really important for everybody. 0n the day schools closed, another major change to the fabric of british society. we are collectively telling — telling — cafes, pubs, bars and restaurants to close tonight, as soon as they reasonably can, and not to open tomorrow. britain learnt a new phrase — social distancing.

it came with a massive economic cost, as millions stayed at home. thousands laid off or forced to take unpaid leave. the strategy we have adopted, which i completely agree with, is going to change this country for decades to come and generate costs that our children will be repaying. three patients died at the royal victoria infirmary in newcastle this weekend. they're preparing for a surge in the rate of infections locally. so this is one of your icu bays. this to left here is a ventilator, so this is the device we'd use to support a patient's breathing. the hospital has increased the number of beds with ventilators five—fold, to 100. it's undoubtedly daunting.

i think if we can meet a challenge that we don't know what is, but i certainly feel comfortable that we go well above and beyond our usual capacity, and i absolutely know that this hospital will move heaven and earth to try to meet that demand. we are working on worst—case scenarios. this week we've stopped all non—urgent surgery, so we're literally emptying out — i mean, all of the services are stood down. all our energy‘s focused on that high—end critical care ventilated patient. just let's be clear — this is unprecedented, it's very serious, and, you know, we're going to have to try and work through it in stages. and it's now clear that the peak of the epidemic is coming faster in some parts of the country than in others, and it looks now as if london is now a few weeks ahead. as the number of deaths from covid—19 rises,

so too does the number of critically ill. including some medical staff. there is no doubt that, as health care professionals in the front line, we are exposed to increased risk, and we are starting to see that permeating through colleagues that we know of. i certainly know of colleagues now who have ended up unfortunately being ventilated. to defeat the virus, britain could be facing almost total, indefinite lockdown. how and when we can return to normal is likely to be informed by what happens next in china. there hasn't been a new infection in wuhan in the last five days. it's enormously important that we watch and learn from what wuhan is doing, because if they lift those restrictions there is a very big possibility they will go into a second wave and the epidemic will return — maybe less than the first wave,

but nevertheless return. right now, scientists are in a race against time to develop a coronavirus vaccine. this is the first version of our prototype vaccine that we're evaluating. professor robin shattock is leading a team of british scientists, but says a vaccine could be a year away. we predict that, with the right funding, we'll be able to be conducting early clinical trials by the beginning of the summer. but that's a way away, considering there's an epidemic. right, but you have to remember that we're doing this faster than it's been done before, and the most important thing is to make sure that a vaccine is safe. that could mean we're living with covid—19 for at least another 12 months. i have to say, on the most part, we're feeling maybe apprehensive but have faith that we'll be ready

if or when it gets worse. and following the government guidance on social isolation, you will really be helping your nhs to deal with the pressures that are going to face us. it's so important that we work together to beat this pandemic. the last week has seen the most dramatic restrictions on everyday life ever imposed in peacetime. and it's likely to get worse. the scientists say it can work, so long as we all do our bit. the frontline is in the streets — the virus cannot replicate without a host and if we avoid face—to—face contact we will starve that virus. it's in our hands — small actions by each one of us add up to an incredible response by the world. it's notjust governments —

it's people who will do this. as britain enters another week of uncertainty, and our battle against covid—19 begins a new phase, the generation who lived through the second world war have a message for us all.

this is bbc news. welcome if you are watching here in the uk or around the globe. i'm simon pusey. our top stories: amid warnings that the us could be the next epicentre of the pandemic, president trump says he hopes that it will soon be business as usual. i hope we can do this by easter. i think that would be a great thing for our country, and we're all working very hard to make that a reality. as the death toll in the uk jumps, doctors say that young people are among those who have become seriously unwell. india puts more than a billion people into lockdown, as the prime minister says it is essential to prevent the country being set back decades. the tokyo olympic and paralympic games are postponed until 2021. it is the first time the event has ever been