a hello, this is bbc news with ben brown. the headlines... the prime minister sends a letter to every household in the uk and warns that the coronavirus crisis will get worse before it gets better. emergency food parcels are being delivered to the most vulnerable people in england who aren't allowed to leave their homes. president trump decides n0 quarantine for new york but says tough new travel restrictions will be brought in — sparking confusion in the state. as europe tightens its lockdown, spain suffers another sharp rise in the number of covid—19 deaths, but officials say the spread of infections is starting to stabilise. and the world's oldest man, bob weighton from hampshire,

is celebrating his 112th birthday, but there'll be no party due to the restrictions. hello, and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be bringing us tomorrow. with me are polly mackenzie, chief executive of the cross—party thinktank demos, and robert fox, defence editor at the evening standard. welcome to you both. thank you for being with us. let's run through what the papers look like this morning. the sunday times carries a warning from the government's leading epidemiology adviser that britain must remain in full lockdown untiljune if it is to avoid the worst effects of the coronavirus. the observer says borisjohnson will warn every household in britain that he is prepared to tighten the nation's lockdown, after the uk suffered the biggest daily increase in its death

toll. the sunday express says the prime minister's bleak message will be delivered in a letter scheduled to be sent to every household this week. the sunday telegraph reports that the prime minister has warned that "things will get worse before they get better" as the nhs urged against complacency in the national effort to reduce the spread of coronavirus. the sunday people warns of the amount of potential deaths in the uk — and that many more will die if we don't follow the rules. according to the sunday mirror, medics have pleaded for more protective masks and gowns to stop them becoming "sitting ducks". the mail on sunday says borisjohnson‘s allies have turned on china over the coronavirus crisis, as britain's death toll from the epidemic reached four figures. so let's begin... polly, why don't you start it off? the telegraph, just that message

from the prime minister going to every home in britain. the crisis will get worse before it gets better. i think it is a difficult but very important message for us to hear. the people working on the front lines, the world feels very strange, but that sense that something bad is happening is something bad is happening is something that is quite hard to grasp. we don't see people in hospital, we are not ill ourselves. so being reminded how essential it is for us to stay and keep our cool during this period of isolation or protective controls on us, is incredibly important, and preparing us incredibly important, and preparing us for that sense that it is going to get worse, and as borisjohnson said a few weeks ago, more and more loved ones will be lost before their time. rabbit writing to every house in the country. he did that televised address to the country. is

this an effective means of communication? i think it isjust to keep up the momentum. this is what you do in a crisis. you have to keep up you do in a crisis. you have to keep up the drumbeat of announcements to show that you are in charge. i think it isa show that you are in charge. i think it is a way of him stating his presence. i completely follow polly in where we are going. and what this is about as they are expecting the first big spike to come within about ten days to a fortnight, possibly as far away as three weeks, but sometime in april. now, a hidden message behind this is get ready for this, we must be in good shape, and not exhaust ourselves, because i have been on the story all week, as lam sure have been on the story all week, as i am sure both of you have been, and i have been talking to epidemiologists, doctors, heart surgeons, and they are expecting the

next big bout to come in the summer because, and this is the message from italy which we can possibly discuss, this is a resurgent virus. it seems to come back in places where they think they are getting on top of it. it is particularly happening in northern italy and lombardy at the moment. let's look at another story in the telegraph. this is also on the front page. there was a kind of exercise carried out four years ago, three day dry drone for a pandemic that was carried out in october 2016, and one of the things it showed apparently was that the nhs really couldn't cope very well with a surge in cases ina cope very well with a surge in cases in a pandemic. i think probably in the longer term some really serious questions are going to have to be asked about our preparedness for this. we had a whole series of respiratory and infections that

threaten to be a pandemic like this, and so in a way, this is quite a predictable event. people talk about the global financial crash, blacks one, that was totally unforeseen. there were papers saying that this potentially could happen. there would be a virus from animals and possibly starting in china. they do a range of different kinds of planning. they did preparations and coalition building in 2010. there are defence exercises that are done. and those are supposed to raise serious questions. we are supposed to evolve to find all of the worst case scenario so to evolve to find all of the worst case scenario so that government can prepare. in preparation for brexit, matt hancock said he was spending more money on fridges than anyone else in the world. if they had done

this preparation, why were they not also spending money on respirators and ventilators. it does seem we will have to do a public inquiry into preparedness and think about how we will prepare for these kind of events in the future. when all of this is over, quite a long way down the track, a public inquiry into whether or not we were prepared. yes. that's the short answer. it is going to be pretty bloody as polly was suggesting. it is going to be pretty awful. yes, they were warned. in 2018 national security paper, pandemic, i have it in front of me on my desk. they did understand the ramifications of it, not only for the health service but for other front line responders and also back up front line responders and also back up including the volunteer services that are now being called in to help when needed, really rather urgently.

the thing about pandemics is that they are just too difficult. they go into the two difficult bucks. the problem is in building up a quality, which is known as resilience, it's an abstract noun. building up resilience which is seeing the document, is about as bad and difficult as the global war on terror. you cannot battle build up abstract nouns. i would just like to add something. there has been a series from the world health organization of studies called our world at risk. they have been going on in ten years now and they come out every year. it is chaired by the first woman prime minister of norway and very expert on world health. the latest one, there is a very real

threat of a rapidly moving, highly lethal pandemic or other respiratory nature killing 15 to 18 million people and wiping out nearly 5% of the worlds economy. that was in september last year. there had been warnings around. the fact is, as we are seeing with a lot of resources, that we will have to ramp up and bring to it. it has been a story ever since 2008, since the crash, a story of austerity and hollowing out. we don't have the resources. we are going to have to get them. polly, your picture has frozen, but we will keep talking to you because we will keep talking to you because we can hear you fine. let's look at the sunday times. everyone who is in lockdown at the moment don't know when it is going to end. potentially it could go on untiljune according

to one of the leading academics who has done a lot of muddling on this. he is saying that we are going to have to keep these measures in place, probably until the end of may, perhaps even earlyjune, but may he says would be optimistic. what do you think of that? the messaging is in that letter boris johnson is sending. if we obey these rules, they will be able to be lifted sooner, but i think this doctor is reminding us that soon it isn't in fact soon. in the uk, even more than the us, we are seeing because the restrictions to be lifted as soon as possible. let's not kill the economy trying to save lives. in the uk it is much more likely we will follow the scientific advice and keep those restrictions. it is about people remaining patient and not start to justify the rules

and not start to justify the rules and assume that it is all right if we start to flatten the search curve, that that would release the restrictions. there have been new predictions that the deaths might be much lower that have originally been forecast. now, perhaps 20,000. that's because of these restrictions. from the government perspective, it is teaching people who are not really accustomed to this kind of treatment by the police or by the authorities to bear with it for the sake of an enemy that remains invisible. robert that is the point isn't it? bearing with it. everybody wants to know and they are keen to do their bit but they want to know when it is going to be over. that is pretty much impossible to say at the moment. that is where we come into the churn don't we? i've

been having, in are rather sort of dance macabre rate, glorious week of going to the expertise of the experts. eh, i'm not a doctor, b, i'm nota experts. eh, i'm not a doctor, b, i'm not a static edition, and their statistician isn't about doing a fa ncy statistician isn't about doing a fancy football working out the odds on that. it is incredibly complex this muddling. it is the kind of muddling that dominic cummings seems to like and according to his critics actually gets wrong. the problem is that we have so many projections as polly was saying, but they are very contradictory. this is where i think the government got itself into a bit ofa the government got itself into a bit of a model, and the government got itself into a bit ofa model, and is the government got itself into a bit of a model, and is getting itself out of it. i must say, because boris johnson is giving clear messaging. rememberthe johnson is giving clear messaging. remember the whole business about herd immunity which also came from neil ferguson. he has been

absolutely wonderfully honest about when he has changed his mind about things, but now that they are working on, you know we must get the support of the people. it could be bad. let's hope it's not going to be as bad as some of us fear it might be. ithink as bad as some of us fear it might be. i think that is a very strong message. you get, i have been reading in the last 48 hours or so, experts saying it has all been exaggerated and it is a terrible plot. i feel very very concerned because of the multiplying effect that you get, and you get some really crazy stuff out there now in social media. the amount of fake news social media. the amount of fake news blowing around even on my twitter account, not from me, news blowing around even on my twitteraccount, not from me, is amazing. polly, let's go to the mirror. protect our doctors and

nurses and coronavirus medics pleading for more protective masks and gowns to stop them becoming the sitting ducks. there is a quote from someone whose doctor —— his cousin was a doctor and one of the first to die from the outbreak. we are talking about british preparedness and lack of it for this crisis. absolutely. they have this very striking picture of the excel centre being converted into a new hospital. i remember being astonished by the way in which china could build these hospitals in days or weeks, and it is incredibly impressive to see the way both the nhs, supported by the army and also everybody from electricians to suppliers, is getting at this hospital at such speed. nevertheless, what we don't haveis speed. nevertheless, what we don't have is something much simpler, which is enough gowns and visors and

gloves for our doctors. it seems that when they are repeatedly exposed to the virus, that exposes —— that increases what is called the viral load and they are more likely to catch the disease and then experience very bad symptoms in comparison to if you just pick up a small amount from a contaminated door handle or whatever it might be. it is incredibly important. these people are absolutely risking their lives for us. in italy i saw one statistic suggesting that 20% of the medics who start working in these wards become affected. we are asking people to give potentially the ultimate sacrifice to keep us safe. of course, the least we can do is stay home and watch cute tv and not complain about it, but the government must in the short and long term must ask serious questions about this. it must be terrifying to

bea about this. it must be terrifying to be a front line medic. i was listening to one medic comparing it to being in a war zone like syria. at least if you are there, you can get in the plane and jump out. if you are here in the front line dealing with this virus, you can't leave. that is yourjob. it is an invisible enemy that is very scary. it is very scary because it is not really completely understood. the science, by all accounts right across the spectrum and the bbc has been excellent at showing the different kind of work that is being done on this virus. but it is a snaky one. it changes. goodness knows where it takes according to an expert friends and he really is an expert friends and he really is an expert by relatives. you could say he could have taken this particular

one since about late autumn. i think thatis one since about late autumn. i think that is the thing that is making it so difficult. as you say, as polly was so difficult. as you say, as polly was saying, the questions raised those doctors are jolly good. the medical science in lombardy and elsewhere is absolutely outstanding. the recurrence of it reappearing is theirfinding is so the recurrence of it reappearing is their finding is so worrying. we can't. we really want to give our doctors and nurses a big hug. i absolutely feel, having been in battles, as you have reported income is the unknown that is the worry. i think that is where i have every sympathy with them. that is real courage and real moral as well as mental courage that they can go out and do this again and again. some of them are, if you can see, puzzles,

frightened indeed. the mail on sunday has turned its attention to china, the source of the outbreak. number ten fury at china's lies. questioning really whether there will be a reckoning in terms of the chinese in wielding the five g network and that kind of thing. i suppose recriminations and lawlessness continues, are inevitable. recriminations and question marks about our relationship with china, which, i think too many conservative politicians wanted to charge ahead with. they were not questioning the fa ct with. they were not questioning the fact that they are an authoritarian state, incredibly high volumes of human rights abuses, and state suppression of this story. we have

data and statistics coming out of china that we cannot rely on. and then epidemiologists across the west are false to rely on them even though they can't be sure they are true or accurate. the daily mail has also been talking about whether it is michel barnier, the eu representative in the brexit negotiations, gave borisjohnson coronavirus. it feels a bit like the male is trying to distract us from the accountability questions on the government and its response, when as we we re government and its response, when as we were saying, a lot of this was predictable and predicted and we could have been better prepared. yes, there are questions about china, but let's not forget our government has questions to answer to. let's go to the sunday times. they have a crisis i'm pregnant women as clinic shots. abortion

clinic shut their doors as the coronavirus outbreak hits. there are all sorts of implications across the health service and social care in this sky so that we are only —— in this sky so that we are only —— in this crisis that we are only starting to address now.|j this crisis that we are only starting to address now. i think you're right. this is the second and lower level. i don't mean to man speak at the unfortunate mothers and mothers to be. but it is second level triage and they are prioritising. it is pretty shocking that a fifth of periphery and maternal and antenatal and postnatal clinics seem to have closed down according to this account. there is according to this account. there is a shortage of midwives. the thing is that a lot of these services, and they are not a services. if you are pregnant, you are pregnant. it is

not selective medicine. they are being neglected or squeezed at the moment. that is where, i think following exactly from where policy is speaking, this is exactly what the government has to face up to. the problem is that so much about it is politics rather than policy. what we have got to hear from boris johnson and dominic cummings because he seems to be the squeeze behind all this, is we want to strategy. because as professor neil ferguson has pointed out, this is going to go on in terms of front now —— in terms of front line medicine for the next 18 months. the sociopolitical outcome product of this will go on for a generation. it will go on at least until the next election, and it will be an issue at the next election. let's just it will be an issue at the next

election. let'sjust end up with a slightly lighter, i'm not sure if it is or not, shall daytime shows that about how far the police will go. they say it sank to new depths in derbyshire. a place named the blue lagoon. they put indicted turn it black to stop people from gathering there. quite an extreme method to stop people gathering. it has been interesting, hasn't it. up and down the country watching the police having to enforce a social distancing role without having to be heavy—handed. distancing role without having to be heavy-handed. some of them do look a bit like they're enjoying this, sending drones after dog walkers and the like, but nevertheless it is important that people follow the rules and guidelines, and it is hard for people to do so. it is awkward to not shake hands, it is awkward to stand back from strangers in the street as if they might be

poisonous. and actually, having the police abortus with perhaps not quite so frivolous measures as this, it is incredibly important. there was one report of police threatening with a warning as shopkeeper who had used spray paint to mark out soap distances. and had been charged with criminal damage. something that —— people taking measures to assist these measures should be something these measures should be something the police are supporting. very quickly in conclusion and on a serious note, i want to say about china that britain wants to break —— this tsunami of news coming out of

china, the chinese embassy putting out that it didn't start in china and the coronavirus really started in italy. it is as bad as anything we have seen from russia. it is a quantity of really low level and really quite libellous and insulting rumour. it insults our intelligence if we are expected to swallow it. interesting. robert and polly many thanks forjoining us on our paper review. that is it for the papers this morning. thanks to my guests. polly mackenzie and robert fox. good bye. much more about the coronavirus on our webste. we have a live page with all

of the latest developments — and lots of really informative information, just log on to bbc.co.uk/news — or download the bbc news app. now it's time for a look at the weather with matt taylor. the clocks may have taken a step forward , the clocks may have taken a step forward, but the weather has taken a step back. there is a pretty one or more wind making it feel especially cold across england and wales. moving to england across parts of scotland. a few rain showers further south. mostly dry, and certainly western areas staying dry throughout. varying amounts of clouds. some sunshine breaking through. some sunny spells later this afternoon in the south and east. in eastern england, the biggest effect on how it will feel. already below where they should be

for the time of year. add in that wind and it should be pretty freezing for most of you. turning into summer british time, it means that wind and it should be pretty freezing for most of you. turning into british summer time, it means the evenings will be lighter for longer. here is an example for some of the sunset times across your slice overnight, the showers will still continue over parts of northern england and scotland. many parts in central western areas will stay dry with clearer skies. because you got the clearer skies, you will be more susceptible to frost. there will be a chilly start here, but this is where we will see the best of the morning's sunshine. rain and sleet showers across eastern england, and showers in the north of scotla nd england, and showers in the north of scotland too. elsewhere, went a little bit lighter, and not enough to stop their winds drifting showers across the country. the wind is starting to fall a bit lighter, the

aira starting to fall a bit lighter, the air a little less chilly, the temperatures will start to lift. in wind in north—westerly direction in this area of high pressure. a greater chance for some widespread frost as we start the day, but as a sunny frosty start, mcleod builds up and spreads into afternoon. greatest chance of a few showers in the finals. it is across the north and scotla nd finals. it is across the north and scotland and northern ireland, more likely to see rain later this week and some fairly strong winds as well. they are dry with a few sunny spells.

this is bbc news, with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. the prime minister sends a letter to every household in the uk urging people to stay at home and warning that the coronavirus crisis will get worse before it gets better. emergency food parcels are being delivered to the most vulnerable people in england who aren't allowed to leave their homes. president trump decides no quarantine for new york, but says tough new travel restrictions will be brought in, sparking confusion in the state. as europe tightens its lockdown, spain suffers another sharp rise in the number of covid—19 deaths, but officials say the spread of infections is starting to stabilise.