this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world: president trump says the us is passing the peak of new coronavirus infections, despite the number of deaths doubling in a week. the data suggest that nationwide we have passed the peak new cases. a landslide election victory for south korea's governing party and its president as their handling of the coronavirus outbreak pays handsome dividends. is europe about to open up again? from being the epicentre of the crisis, now some countries are moving to ease restrictions. as the uk's lockdown is expected to be extended by three weeks, social care chiefs condemn the governments handling of the pandemic as "shambolic".

a very warm welcome to those of watching here in the uk and to viewers across the globe. we begin in the us, where president trump has claimed the country has passed the peak of new coronavirus infections. at his daily briefing he said that states across the country were in a strong position to re—open the economy and that he would announce guidelines for that in a news conference later on thursday. president trump has been at loggerheads with state governors about the timing of easing restrictions and reopening businesses and his upbeat assessment comes as the number of deaths is shown to have doubled within the last week. david willis reports. he has been itching to do this

for weeks. now, the businessman turned politician president is poised to announce that there was biggest economy will soon be back in business. thank you very. the data suggest that nationwide we have passed the peak new cases. hopefully, that will continue and we will continue to make great progress. these encouraging developments have put us in a very strong position to finalise guidelines or states on reopening the country, which we will be announcing, we will be talking about that tomorrow. more than 30,000 americans have died from the coronavirus, more than in any country anywhere else in the world and although hospital admissions are down, and the spread of the virus has slowed, health officials continue to warn of the dangers ofa continue to warn of the dangers of a second surge is social distancing guidelines are lifted too quickly. the key

issueis lifted too quickly. the key issue is testing. so far, just over 3 million americans have been tested for the coronavirus, not enough, according to several leading employers, who believe that more testing is needed before people will feel safe to return to work. ultimately then, it will be state leaders who decide when the economy reopens and not the president. it is the governors of the states who have the actual authority to shut down have the actual authority to shutdown or reopen facilities within their borders. the president can provide guidance. he can provide suggestions and of course, being the president, that carries a certain amount of persuasive weight but it is the governors of the united states to actually hold the power. some workers are as keen to see a return to normal as the president himself. conservatives in michigan

organise this protest against a stay—at—home order imposed by the state democratic governor, defying social distancing guidelines to make their point. millions of americans have lost theirjobs in recent weeks and theirjobs in recent weeks and the coronavirus has brought an economy that president trump had taken to calling the greatest in the history of the world, to its knees. his aim now is to rebuild it before people go to the polls in november. in south korea, president moonjae—in‘s governing party has won a landside victory in parliamentary elections which were the first to be held amid the coronavirus pandemic. the ruling democratic party had highlighted the country's so far successful fight against covid—19 which has brought the number of daily infections down from a peak of 900 a day in late february to under 30 new cases a day. millions turned out to cast their ballot in masks,

using hand sanitiser and wearing plastic gloves. let's talk now to robert kelly. he is a professor of political science at pusan national university. robert, good to see you. trace, test and treat was the mantra and that had paid off very well for the governing party? yeah, definitely. this was a landslide. the south korean right is in real trouble after this. the governing party of the left, the president is from the left, the president is from the left, the president is from the left, his parliamentary support expanded and it is close to something like 60% now. pretty high which means the government can really push through a lot of what it wants, barring constitutional amendments, meaning we can see amendments, meaning we can see a lot of the social democratic welfare ‘s policies they pursued over the last few years and the detente with north korea. the figures of 2500 cases, 229 deaths across the

pieces are not so bad in any case, and when you look at that annie transferred across the world, you can understand south koreans thinking that they have had a very well run arrangement here. for democracy, south korea has become a model for respond in —— corresponded to the coronavirus and there has been coverage on this network and elsewhere and i think the government of president moon jae—in benefited greatly from it. the policy issue going forward is that coronavirus is something like leftfield in policy terms, right? . wasn't a referendum on what the other things the president moon jae—in government has done like the states expansion and outreach to north korea, those we re outreach to north korea, those were on the ballot but then they were pushed off. the reality is that prior to this the economy was going backwards, plenty of scandals and corruption scandals around the government, even relations with north korea are not as

they were, are they? right, yeah, andi they were, are they? right, yeah, and i think that was a missed opportunity and i wonder if this is what other generic —— elections will be like for the rest of the year, and the american election is the big one. all these other issues get pushed aside because of corona and winners assume because they got elected because they did a greatjob got elected because they did a great job with got elected because they did a greatjob with corona they can run off and do all these other things and this is not a referendum on the government ‘s effort and the detente with north korea. this was barely an issue. understandably and not every country can boast the same record that south korea has had on this either. robert, thank you forjoining us popular thank you for having me. let's get some of the day's other news: the 620 has announced it's suspending debt payments owed by the world's poorest states for the rest of the year. 77 countries are due to benefit from the agreement, which will temporarily delay up to $14 billion in payments. the us navy has accused iran

of carrying out dangerous and provocative actions against several american ships operating in international waters in the gulf. it says 11 iranian vessels repeatedly harassed six us ships involved in military exercises, passing close to them at high speed. there's been no word yet from the iranian authorities. the mandate for the israeli opposition leader and parliamentary speaker, benny gantz, to form a government has expired. he had been trying to agree a national unity government with the prime minister, benjamin netanyahu, but no announcement has been made since the deadline passed at midnight local time. let's take a look at the latest in europe. it was once the centre of the coronavirus crisis, but now some countries are moving to ease restrictions on movement which have been in place for several weeks. rich preston has this report. there are still checks on who

enters and leaves germany but within its borders, a relaxing of the rules as of next week. small shops will be allowed to open, children who were due to sit exams will be allowed back to school and hairdressers will start working again. germany has had over 3500 deaths from coronavirus but that's relatively few compared to some of its neighbours. a success widely attributed to early, rigourous testing. translation: we have achieved something which was in no way certain from the beginning. 0ur doctors, nurses and all of those who work in the healthcare system, in the hospitals, are not overburdened. but the rules and socialising with stay in place for another two weeks, along with a government recommendation that everyone where a face mask, a similar rule is being introduced in poland. anyone out in public must now wear something covering their nose and mouth. italy, europe's worst hit country, is slowly starting to

relax some of its restrictions, a sigh of relief that, while not out of the woods, the worst may have passed. in venice, bookshops will open once more, so tubal children's clothing stores. caution remains high elsewhere. france's extending lockdown rules elsewhere. france's extending lockd own rules early elsewhere. france's extending lockdown rules early may. 0ld jim until mid may. across europe, there is hope with infection rates flowing, and hospital admissions decreasing, that life may soon slowly, cautiously, return to normal. —— belgium. it will be a slow process but it maps out. here, in the uk, the government is expected to announce a three week extension to the restrictions already in place because of the pandemic. one of the latest victims of covid—i9 was a pregnant nurse, working at the luton and dunstable university hospital. doctors say her child was delivered successfully. charlotte gallagher reports.

mary agyeiwaa agyapong, also known as mary mo, was 28, described by friends and collea g u es described by friends and colleagues as a nurse who devoted her life to the nhs. luton and dunstable university hospital, where she worked, has seen hospital, where she worked, has seen dozens of deaths from covid—i9. 0n easter sunday, they lost one of their own. her daughter was delivered by emergency cesarean and he said to be doing very well. it is understood that mary mo had been working during the latter stages of her pregnancy but her nhs trust said she was not treating coronavirus patients. she tested positive on april five and admitted to hospital two days later. david carter, the chief executive of beneficiary hospital nhs trust has paid distributor:

an online fundraising pays two page has been set up and it describes there is a blessing to everyone she came across an ad that her love, care and sincerity would be irreplaceable. 0ne sincerity would be irreplaceable. one person who gave money said that her memory will live on in her baby girl and another described her as a hero. today, the uk government is set to extend the coronavirus lockdown, which is transforming life for everyone in the uk. ministers are expected to agree a further three weeks of social distancing control. northern ireland has already confirmed that restrictions will stay in place there for at least three weeks. this shared sacrifice, andi weeks. this shared sacrifice, and i know it is a sacrifice, is starting to work but we will not lift these measures until

it is safe to do so. officials say there are signs the measures are helping to limit the spread of the virus by flattening the curve of infection but say no—one should be complacent. we do or think this has flattened out. sadly, we do think that high numbers of deaths will continue for, certainly a short while, on from where we are at the moment. all staff and residents at care homes that coronavirus symptoms are now being promised tests by the government. there have been outbreaks at more than 2000 homes and care home providers have been pleading for support. the number of tests carried out each day has not gone up much but it has been a bank holiday weekend. it is now just been a bank holiday weekend. it is nowjust under 16,000 but thatis is nowjust under 16,000 but that is a long way short of the 100,000 a day target set by the government by the end of this month. the number of people who have died in hospitalfrom

coronavirus has risen by 761. there are a605 new cases. as a number of other european countries start to ease restrictions on daily life, focus is turning to when schools, businesses and factories in the uk will be able to open as normal, but that could still be some time away. i want to add to the situation in the uk because the bbc has seen a leaked letter, seen by senior officials, highly critical of the government ‘s handling of the pandemic so far. the association of directors of adult social services tells ministers that they presided over what they are calling a shambolic supply chain for personal protective equipment and saying it is shameful that three quarters of a million nhs volunteers have been left with nothing to do.

with the death toll of 13,000 fatalities does not including those because those who passed away in care homes and the government has promised action, including testing regime for both residents and staff. you're watching bbc news. a reminder of our headlines: president trump says the us is passing the peak of new infections. the us death toll has now passed the 30,000 mark, doubling in a week. a landslide election victory for south korea's governing party and its president over their handling of the coronavirus outbreak. let's look at the us in more detail. there have been some discussions about whether the response to the pandemic has been more effective in west coast states and cities than in other parts of the country. particularly on the other coasts, over to the east. to discuss this further, i'm joined by adam nagourney is the los angeles bureau chief for the new york times.

thank for the new york times. you very much forjoining us. thank you very much forjoining us. it is an interesting proposition. does the evidence bear that out? with all kinds of caveats, it is early, you never know where this is going, but right now we are seeing on the west coast and california right now is a significant lower population death rate. in new york today it was 11,000, people have died in california is about 700 people. we know that could change. right now it seems like what california officials did, washington state officials did, washington state officials did, washington state officials did seems to have slowed down and maybe lessons the total deaths and infections. ultimately, they we re infections. ultimately, they were quicker to act and presumably people living in those states were more ready to follow those instructions? yes, thatis follow those instructions? yes, that is right. two things are

going on. one is the more quicker to act in the case of california versus... new york, i would point out that given the density of new york, the virus really carried out there, those two or three days may have been really significant. people in the west coast might be more willing or more accessible following these kind of guidelines even when the threat is not right in front of them. this is a part of the country where we have wildfire, earthquakes. a few years ago there was a huge drought and people were told to cut back on the use of water and they did, pretty dramatically actually come and again, these are all things that people are not necessarily seeing the threat in front of them, but that is one of the reasons why people

here are more likely to stay at home. it says a lot about the united states as well in terms of its size and its scope, that there is such a diversity of impact. i notice for example texas, not very many people have died in texas. florida even, the figures at the moment stand well alongside some other state. so it is difficult, isn't it, to pinpoint what is causing these differences? yes, again, we can probably guess some of them. i think that it looks like the social distancing policies have succeeded or slower the spread and flatten the curve to use the phrase they always is. the question is whether density makes a death and saw how much ofa makes a death and saw how much of a difference in social behaviour. i think in florida, the government —— governor was late to impose a stay—at—home order, you see evidence of

cases taking off there. new york is well ahead of everybody right now. yes, by a long way. it is fascinating as well as terrible. adam, thank you very much indeed. in egypt, the middle east's most populous country, the world health organization says 13% of those infected with coronavirus are healthcare workers. the bbc has gained access to quarantine hospitals and talked to doctors tackling the pandemic, who say their concerns about access to protective gear and testing availability are not being taken seriously enough. but the government says there is enough equipment available. sally nabil has this report from cairo. it is in the air and is egyptian public hospital. safe images have tightened and patients were cleared from the room as disinfection gets under

way. but medical staff across the country are very worried about their own health. dozens of them have recently tested positive for coronavirus. we spoke to a doctor in the public hospital who didn't want to be identified. translation: two of my colleagues complained to their supervisor about the lack of surgical masks. shortly after, they were reviewed for spreading rumours stop two weeks later, the supervisor tested positive for coronavirus. this is the country's main medical centre in the heart of cairo. before it became a hot spot for coronavirus. 0ver it became a hot spot for coronavirus. over a week ago, nearly 20 medical staff were infected. officially registered coronavirus cases suggest that the infection rate has not spiked yet, but even before the country gets this grim milestone, dock is our warning

there isn't enough personal protective equipment or medical tests. translation: it is meaningless to save the protective gear for later when things get worse. this is what spreads infection. doctors and nurses suspected of testing positive should be quarantined at once. according to the world bank, there is nearly one hospital bed for every 1000 egyptians, and local statistics say there are around two. as for every 1000 patients. we managed to get this video from a quarantine hospital where media access is highly restricted. there are nearly 30 of them and they are set to be well—equipped. as the pandemic ravaged other countries, egypt has sent medical supplies to italy twice. the move was criticised for coming while hospitals at home are trying to cope with shortages. the government

disagrees. translation: had there been a lack of supplies, we wouldn't have sent anything. this is a political message of support. we might be in need of similar support one day. life in cairo is more or less business as usual in the morning, but the bustling city comes to a standstill at night due to a nationwide curfew. egyptians haven't seen the worst of coronavirus yet, but with a population of over 100 million in the poorly funded healthcare system, the scenario can be scary if numbers swell. there is a saying that nine—tenths of education is encouragement. well, millions of children have had to be encouraged by their parents to keep up their schoolwork with lessons online. and for one italian boy, that has been taken to another level in a search to keep learning. the bbc‘s tim allman has his story.

giulio giovannini wants to learn. but in the middle of a global pandemic, that's easier said than done. with no internet at home, he and his mother have to drive through the remote tuscan countryside, looking for a signal on their phone. once they find one, he can log on and classes can begin. translation: on the days when i have lessons, i bring a table, a stool, and my bag with my tablet and all the books that i need. mum and i come here with the car, and we set everything up and we are ready for lessons. it is a rather picturesque setting, although giulio says he misses being with his friends. his mother, gloria, isjust happy he's getting an education. translation: we're in a bit of a particular situation because our telephone line is out of order, we don't have the

internet or anything. so to take part in his lessons, we have to come up here where we can at least get connected. my mobile phone is the router in orderfor him to follow lessons online. as long as the weather's 0k, he can continue to study in the great outdoors. most of the time, giulio says he's able to concentrate, but he admits he has been interrupted by the occasional noisy goat. tim allman, bbc news. quite a challenge, isn't it? this crisis has prompted some pretty amazing stories of people doing their bit to help. and perhaps top of the pile is captain tom moore. at the age of 99, he set out to walk 100 laps of his garden before his 100th birthday to raise money for charities supporting the national health service. he still has two weeks to go to his birthday. but so far, he has raised around £12 million. our correspondent david sillito has the latest. captain tom moore,

99 years old and counting down the days to his 100th birthday with 100 laps of his garden. the original plan was to try to raise £1,000 for nhs charities. today, he was told the total had already gone past £5 million. oh, my goodness! completely out of this world. thank you so much for all you people who subscribe to the national health service because for every penny that we get, they deserve every one of it. a couple of hours later, another million had been added. then another, and on it went. tomorrow, he'll complete his 100th lap and no—one is predicting how much he'll have raised by then. but he's not planning on stopping. if the money keeps coming, he's going to keep on walking. david sillito, bbc news. there is no stopping him now. i don't think the nation would let him. just to let you know, do have a look at our website.

lots of detail there for you. we have a glossary of terms as well, which might be worth looking at. thank you for being with us. hello there. yesterday was a warmer kind of day. again, plenty of sunshine for most of us, with just a little bit of high cloud crossing the skies. we had some rather dramatic skylines, for example, in the shropshire area. now, it was the north—east of the uk that had the day's highest temperatures. durham and parts of aberdeenshire seeing highs of 21 degrees, but look at this drop in temperatures on the way through thursday. for some, it's going to be around 10 or 11 degrees cooler. the cooler weather is arriving with a cold front. it's this stripe of cloud that's sinking its way southwards across scotland right now, leaving the clearest of the skies and the lowest temperatures further south across england and wales, where there could just be a few patches of frost in the countryside. for thursday, well, it gets a little warmer across england and wales, but across the far north of scotland

and increasingly into eastern scotland and north—east england, we've got the colder air setting its way in. now, into the afternoon, we may well see a few brighter spells for orkney and shetland, but otherwise, for much of scotland, it's a cloudy day. the cloud could be thick enough for an occasional spot of rain. not amounting to too much, mind you. for most, it will stay just about dry. it's going to feel a lot colder, though. temperatures 9 to 11 degrees, 11 degrees the high in durham rather than the 21 we had on wednesday. further southward across england and wales, again, most areas will have lots of dry weather and sunshine. there'll be a little bit more in the way of higher cloud moving in, and, yes, we could see just a few isolated showers across south—west england, southern wales, but even here, the majority will probably stay dry. a little warmer, temperatures into the low 20s more widely. for friday, an area of low pressure that's been affecting spain and portugal wobbles a little bit close to our shores, and it looks increasingly likely that we'll see some rain arriving. although the amount of rain you see from place to place across parts of england

and wales is going to vary significantly. still mild, but those temperatures are falling back a little bit. highs of 17 in london, the cold air in scotland tending to seep down some of these eastern areas of england, knocking the temperatures back in norwich to just 12 degrees. now, the weekend, scotland stays fine and dry throughout, but it looks like we could see a little bit of patchy rain still left over across parts of england, wales and maybe northern ireland on saturday. sunday, for all of us, looks like the driest day of the weekend. that's your latest weather.

you're with bbc news for viewers in the uk and around the world and i'm david eades with the top business stories: the world needs to go back to business, but how and when, as each country choses it's own path we'll try to sort out the consequences of too early a return to normality. and, as we await the latest us jobless numbers, where are the loans that were expected to help small businesses cope during the crisis. president donald trump says

he will unveil guidelines to relax stay—at—home rules on thursday, citing signs that the coronavirus outbreak is plateauing in parts of the country. this, as the us reported a record number of deaths for the second day in a row on wednesday. meanwhile, europe is starting to ease some restrictions, in italy bookshops, launderettes, stationers and children's clothing retailers are allowed to re—open. and the german chancellor, angela merkel, says that schools and some businesses will be allowed to reopen at the start of next month, but venues including bars, restau ra nts a nd cafes would remain closed. the uk lockdown is due to be reviewed today, but no major changes are expected. joining me now is simon french, chief economist at panmure gordon. simon, very good to see you and this is a real mishmash,

looking across the european landscape as to which country is doing what and when and it is doing what and when and it isa is doing what and when and it is a big gamble? it is a huge gamble. i think you are right to say it is a mishmash because different countries and regions within countries are at different stages of the outbreak and therefore different measures will be appropriate for their economies and some economies but, actually going forward, we cannot see a straight line or a binary situation between social distancing and reopened business as usual economy. it will be trial and error and there will be potential for error that economists are looking at most pointedly because that will drive the trajectory for jobs and incomes for the next couple of quarters. as if the trajectory isn't bad enough already! are there concerns or is it possible to project, if you like, a second round would do in terms of europe's economy?

very damaging. the analysis that has been done suggests that has been done suggests that businesses and industrial capacity across europe and the world can deal with in the most pa rt world can deal with in the most part with a temporarily first wave of closures, curtailing they can flex their balance sheets and take state support but going forward, if they have to face it again, a secondary round of infections, then fatigue will sectors —— started setting. some companies trying to look through this period will shut completely and lay off workers. for business and politically as well, there would be sent, wouldn't there, for countries to co—ordinate the areas they thought could be perhaps open first and foremost? italy and germany say bookshops at the moment. if there was a sweet saying these businesses can start on these cannot, at least a, everyone

will be in the same boat and b, those businesses can start to operate on more than just a local and national scale possibly? certainly, and the interconnected nature in terms of the european economy in terms of supply chains is that you can start to co—ordinate in particular sectors than companies that services sectors can companies that services sectors ca n start companies that services sectors can start to ramp up supply, not just locally but across the board and that's where you start to get the more powerful economic data. there will be a big communications challenges for governments across the world to explain to citizens how they intend to open the economy and if those messages are co—ordinated, it is more likely that message will cut through and compliance will be better. would point, simon french, thank you forjoining us. we want the lockdowns to end but plenty of anxiety as to when and how and that will go on no doubt.

america is fighting two epidemics: a deadly virus and skyrocketing unemployment. the latest weekly jobless numbers are due out later today. the massive stimulus package passed by congress was meant to help american workers, by giving loans to small businesses to keep employees on the payroll. but it's been weeks since the plan was passed and business still haven't received any funds. our business correspondent samira hussain reports from new york. this is new york city ‘s famous fifth ave, best known for its shopping, lined with store after store after store, this area would normally be teeming with shoppers. but these are not normal times. like many economies, americans have come to an abrupt halt. street after new york city street tells the same story, metal doors are drawn shut and don't know clearly when they will open again. more than half the city ‘s private sector workforce is employed by business sectors,

likely set to suffer the most. businesses like this flower shop, it survived a fire and the economic downturn in 2008. the owner has tried to get loa ns to ta ke the owner has tried to get loans to take and keep her in her stuff like that has been u nsuccessful. her stuff like that has been unsuccessful. what was it like to try and get through to your bank? i haven't gotten through to my bank. we have no income. i have maintained my staff and iam i have maintained my staff and i am paying them and i am drawing on credit lines. i've applied for every possible financial aid from the city and from the federal government. the applications are in and it feels like you have sent all this information into a black hole. small firms around the country are reporting the same thing. part of the $2 trillion stimulus package passed by congress was meant to help small businesses keep employees on the payroll. three weeks since it was signed, many

companies get to benefit —— many companies meant to benefit have yet to send the money. how long can you continue keeping employees on the payroll ? well, i will do it indefinitely even if i have to go into my own finances. i am not giving up. we have been in business for a0, a9 years and i'm not giving up. if i have to finance, if i have to pay employees with my own money, thatis employees with my own money, that is what i will have to do. but so many small businesses cannot keep style. with the government cannot get money to the businesses that need it, them number of those out of work will continue to rise sharply. it is not just it is notjust damaging, it is heartbreaking, isn't it? asia's economy is likely to suffer zero growth this year for the first time in 60 years,

the imf said in a report on the asia—pacific region released today. let's now cross to asian business hub in singapore, where sharanjit leyl has more on this story for us. sharanjit ley?, it feels like we all know this now but when it is in black and white from an organised body it is just staggering, isn't it? low it is staggering, isn't it? low it is staggering and heartbreaking. bearin staggering and heartbreaking. bear in mind, 60 years ago, most asian countries were still developing economies before of course they became the powerhouses they are today. this is a dire projection from the imf. they say the lack of growth will be worse than the annual average growth rates, throughout the gfc of a decade ago and all the asian crises of the late 1990s but they do add that if containment policies are effective in asia, there will be a rebound in growth in 2021 and in fact they expect asia to fare a lot better than other parts of the world that are suffering economic

contractions right now, and they are expecting expansion next year of some 7.6% for the region. this is on the assumption that these containment policies succeed. they did add the caveat that the outlook is still highly uncertain now, much depends on the trajectory of the coronavirus and policymakers must offer a targeted support to households and firms that are hard—hit by the travel bans, the social distancing policies and of course the other measures aimed at containing the pandemic. year, thank you indeed and we are still building the picture of how damaging it has been and in 12 hours time china will be releasing data as to how its economy performed in the first three months of the year and this will highlight just three months of the year and this will highlightjust how damaging the pandemic has been in the second largest economy on the world. chinese factories

are slowing getting back online and people are returning to work but lockdowns in other parts of the world has hit global demand, which will hurt china's massive export sector. the bbc‘s asia business orrespondent, karishma vaswani, takes a look at what the data could mean for the global economy. why you would still be hard pressed to find people on the streets of europe or the us, in we re streets of europe or the us, in were high in china, where the global pandemic started, —— in wuhan, people are slowly going back to work. about 25% of american companies in china expect to be back in business by the end of the month and chinese factories have gradually been firing up again. so, you would expect good news from here on, right? well, not quite. sure, demand forsome home electronics, food, things like masks and sanitisers are going through the roof these days but with much of the world battling the pandemic, no—one is going shopping or wearing nice clothes or driving nice

ca rs nice clothes or driving nice cars so that matter. china may be making the goods now but their customers now in the world a re their customers now in the world are not buying. according to a nalysts, world are not buying. according to analysts, some of the ha rd est to analysts, some of the hardest hit actors, automotive and electronics, would take more than two years to go back to pre— pandemic production levels and don't forget, pre— pandemic, the chinese were some of the most prolific tourists. they stayed in hotels, ate restau ra nts, they stayed in hotels, ate restaurants, spent a lot of money at tourist attractions worldwide and they shopped a lot, buying apartments, fashion and high—end electronics. the government says domestic tourism has recovered to about ao% tourism has recovered to about a0% of what it was before but with global restrictions remaining in place, none of thatis remaining in place, none of that is expected to flow to other economies any time soon. china's economy grew 6% last year, despite the trade war, and this year, we are looking at anything from 2% —— to almost no growth in its economy and that means millions ofjobs

lost at home and abroad. over half a decade, chinese presence in the world economy has risen, accounting for 30% of global growth so effect economy suffers, so does the rest of the world. let's get some of the day's other news. president trump says the us is passing the peak of new coronavirus infections. the us death toll has now passed the 30,000 mark, doubling in a week. a landslide election victory for south korea's governing party and its president over their handling of the coronavirus outbreak. time now for coronavirus explained, where we look more in more detail at a particular issue arising from the pandemic. here's more from my colleague yalda hakim.

every day, we are taking a deeper look at the pandemic and coronavirus explained. today it is the numbers, what statistics can we trust in which of them should we be wary of? one of the most confusing is a number of deaths because of the differences the way they are recorded and reported. take this graph of excess deaths in the uk. there is clearly a huge rise in the number of people who have died but only around half of them are recorded as covid—19 related which means the rest are unexplained. we also need to be careful of international comparisons. here we can see big differences in the number of deaths between the number of deaths between the united states, the uk, italy, germany and india but a graph of their cases of common numbers of cases, gives a com pletely numbers of cases, gives a completely different picture.

the reason for this is testing. these are the testing rates for each of these countries, a com pletely each of these countries, a completely different graph again. to make sense of all of this, iam again. to make sense of all of this, i am joined again. to make sense of all of this, iamjoined by again. to make sense of all of this, i am joined by the bbc head of statistics and professor deborah ashbury, president of the statistical society and professor of imperial college of london. thank you forjoining us. we will get straight to it. the fa ct will get straight to it. the fact is that the numbers do not provide the full picture, robert, i will begin with you, we spoke about this the other day, about the things that go on in care homes and at home does not give a full picture of the number of deaths? it doesn't, and when we look at the number of deaths we see in any given week, we saw figures from ported recently from the office of national statistics, the number of deaths with saw in the uk was 6000 higher than we expect at this time of year.

normally expect 10000 and we saw 16,000. that is a big increase and that is attributed to covid—19. only half, just over half of those haven't written on the death it means the other 2500 extra deaths, the other 2500 extra deaths, the other 2500 extra deaths, the other effects of coronavirus, it is things like maybe people who die from covid—19, but it is not written down on the death certificate or perhaps it is people who are not seeking treatment, not going to a&e when they have the start of a heart attack or maybe it is the effects of the lockdown. we can't exactly determine exactly which of thoseis determine exactly which of those is driving it. but what it really makes clear is the single number that we all focus on every day, number of daily deaths reported isn't you the full story. you only really see that when you go back a couple of weeks later and look at the bigger picture. deborah, we keep talking about testing. it

also comes down to testing, doesn't it? certainly, testing is really important. if we look at the deaths of robert was just talking about, it depends partly on why we want to know the numberof partly on why we want to know the number of deaths. if we are in the undertaking profession, we simply want to know how many extra deaths there are that we need to cope with. if we are trying to understand, then we need to know which of those deaths are really directly due to covert, which ones are directly due to covid, perhaps they tip somewhat over the edge who was quite seriously ill, and which ones are indirectly due to covid, someone who couldn't get the help they needed because they were perhaps shut up in a flat and not able to call for help when they perhaps would have done normally. now, testing plays into it because in some countries that have a lot of testing, and so somebody who

dies with covid would at least know that they died with it. in many others, people, and i have got family friends who have died, and everyone knows it is covid because they are symptomatic. but actually they haven't been tested, and so the testing plays an important role in knowing whether it is really covid or not, we have very different testing strategies. even analysing and assessing the testing is different in different countries. some countries are looking at the number of people being tested and others are looking at the number of tests used. yes, and different countries have different countries have different testing strategies, thatis different testing strategies, that is partly because different countries have access to different amounts of tests at the moment, some are testing, doing population testing, doing population testing, others only testing those that most need. but i think this will become more important as the epidemic progresses, that it is really important to distinguish

between people and tests. and to think it through, if somebody is in hospital, they may well have a test when they first go in, it is not even showing positive yet. then they have one a bit later that confirms actually they do have the virus, and maybe they have one later on that show that is cleared. so one person might have three tests for clinical reasons. the testing laboratories need to know how many tests there are because they have to provide the right numbers, but if you don't distinguish between people and testing when you report them, it will get really confusing and it seems different countries are reporting slightly different things at the moment, which makes it very ha rd the moment, which makes it very hard to compare across countries. and that is the trouble, roberts, with comparing countries, isn't it? because obviously they are all using different methods at the moment. and the numbers mean very different things and every different country, as deborah said. it's france is including a different set, a number of tests per person to the uk,

well then you can't make a comparison. if in their death figures, france are including ca re figures, france are including care homes and hospitals in the uk is on hospitals, you can get a misleading comparison. it boils down to who is asking and what question they are asking because the daily death figures we're looking at, they tell us about the trends in epidemic, they tell us whether they are doubling every couple of days, is the epidemic slowing down or is the epidemic slowing down or is it going into a reversal? we can't get that information within a country, but if you start constructing a table on the basis of any single number, you will come a cropper really quickly. in terms of that, he talked about playing catch up. you will eventually get the numbers that we are looking for in terms of the elderly people dying at home and then the overall number of people dying in hospitals, does that, is that provided to us a week or so later? it depends. not every country reduces weight fully mortality statistics, but you start to see the pic, you see more about the total impact of

coronavirus. it doesn't mean you are necessarily able to see the separate pieces we have been talking about is an indirect or direct deaths, but it does enable you to start to build a bigger picture. it doesn't fully tell you what is going on because, really, what we are all trying to reduce his life years lost, so years of life years lost, so years of life lost is very different if it is somebody who maybe was close to dying and the coronavirus is what tipped them over the edge of the poster somebody who would have had a year or two or years of healthy life, and we won't see that until much longer, the weekly stats cannot give that information. deborah, a country like india is really fascinating, because we have 1.3 billion people in lockdown, poor healthcare systems, a lot of people living in poverty and are not a lot of testing done. the numbers are low, but i find

it really difficult to interpret that data because it is nearly impossible to disentangle how much, there isn't yet a problem, maybe there is one coming, and how much it isjust without testing. you are not beginning to quantify it. my gut instinct is that it is the latter. it is really very hard to interpret the data from india. robert, we're at something like over 2 million people that we know of who have the virus globally, but what you are saying is this could be far more given that we are doing testing across the globe, and also, people who may be asymptomatic for example and aren't getting tested. the majority of people, the majority of people, the majority who get coronavirus will not experience severe symptoms. for 80% of people, it is unpleasant, it is an infection to get. but it is no

worse than that. just like the flu, when it hit, many of those cases never go detected because people stay at home, they rest, they get better and they come back. and so only catching, you are only going to get confirmed cases, come to the attention if the healthcare system, get diagnosed formally and that get fed into the stats we are seeing. that will not happen in the majority of cases. deborah, it all comes down to, as well, different countries and the different countries and the different policies. absolutely. this is a novel problem for all of us, so different countries are handling in different ways, there are different countries, but what that means is the statistics are collected in different ways, there are different ways, there are different testing strategies and it makes incredibly hard to disentangle in real time. and it makes incredibly hard to disentangle in realtime. i think with hindsight we will be able to work out rather more clearly what was going on, but

there it isn't the standardisation that you might have with a disease that has been around for longer. and sometimes a perfectly good reason, but it makes the statistics hard to look at your beautiful picture even for someone like me who is actually a statistician and has been for many years. robert, do you think that eventually we will get the numbers, when we are past this pandemic, that at some point it will be clear as to what the numbers of infection rates and deaths were globally? yeah, we will look back and we will learn, but thatis back and we will learn, but that is not much help if you are trying to make sense of all the numbers landing at you every day, if all i am saying is we will wait for two years before you know what happens. i think the guidance of people at home is to look at the numbers and to scratch under the surface to see what is driving them, the different systems and you can read the numbers together. when you look at exa m ples of together. when you look at examples of germany and india, you are seeing a low number of

cases compared to a lot of other countries, a low number of deaths in both of those countries in order to help understand the picture once you look at the testing figures, you see a different story because germany is a country they are testing a lot but a low number of cases, a low number of deaths. they are testing a lot and thing alone above deaths. in india they are not testing and they are not seeing deaths. that presents a very different picture, and you understand it better when you look at the two or three numbers together to draw a broader picture. robert and deborah, thank you both for joining us on the programme. that was the bbc public head of statistics robert and professor deborah ashby of the royal statistical society talking to us statistical society talking to us there. still very difficult to get clarity on these statistics as they come in from different countries. many of which are beginning to take differing measures with regard to lockdown, whether to extend or it. i want to take you to

our website as well. this is reflecting very much the uk position as other countries talk about some shops being able to start opening again and others being restricted in various ways. this is a message for the uk. a three—week lockdown. hello there. yesterday was a warmer kind of day. again, plenty of sunshine for most of us, with just a little bit of high cloud crossing the skies. we had some rather dramatic skylines, for example, in the shropshire area. now, it was the north—east of the uk that had the day's highest temperatures. durham and parts of aberdeenshire seeing highs of 21 degrees, but look at this drop in temperatures on the way through thursday. for some, it's going to be around 10 or 11 degrees cooler. the cooler weather is arriving with a cold front. it's this stripe of cloud that's sinking its way southwards across scotland right now, leaving the clearest of the skies and the lowest temperatures further south across england and wales, where there could just be a few patches of frost in the countryside. for thursday, well, it gets a little warmer across england and wales, but across

the far north of scotland and increasingly into eastern scotland and north—east england, we've got the colder air setting its way in. now, into the afternoon, we may well see a few brighter spells for orkney and shetland, but otherwise, for much of scotland, it's a cloudy day. the cloud could be thick enough for an occasional spot of rain. not amounting to too much, mind you. for most, it will stay just about dry. it's going to feel a lot colder, though. temperatures 9 to 11 degrees, 11 degrees the high in durham rather than the 21 we had on wednesday. further southward across england and wales, again, most areas will have lots of dry weather and sunshine. there'll be a little bit more in the way of higher cloud moving in, and, yes, we could see just a few isolated showers across south—west england, southern wales, but even here, the majority will probably stay dry. a little warmer, temperatures into the low 20s more widely. for friday, an area of low pressure that's been affecting spain and portugal wobbles a little bit close to our shores, and it looks increasingly likely that we'll see some rain arriving. although the amount of rain

you see from place to place across parts of england and wales is going to vary significantly. still mild, but those temperatures are falling back a little bit. highs of 17 in london, the cold air in scotland tending to seep down some of these eastern areas of england, knocking the temperatures back in norwich to just 12 degrees. now, the weekend, scotland stays fine and dry throughout, but it looks like we could see a little bit of patchy rain still left over across parts of england, wales and maybe northern ireland on saturday. sunday, for all of us, looks like the driest day of the weekend. that's your latest weather.

good morning. welcome to breakfast with naga munchetty and charlie stayt. our headlines today: the uk—wide lockdown to deal with the coronavirus pandemic is expected to be extended for a further three weeks from today. tributes are paid to the 28—year—old pregnant nurse who died from covid—19. her baby was delivered and is doing well. as the country prepares to clap for carers once again tonight, we'll bring you the extraordinary end to captain tom moore's inspirational charity walk — 100 laps of his garden before his 100th birthday. when bbc breakfast first highlighted tom's fundraising for the nhs on good friday it stood at a few thousand pounds —