eve n even their chief was looking, even their chief scientific officer was talking about herd immunity? but new research deals a blow to hopes of that working? yes, the research suggests that it would take it may be 8—10 waves of coronavirus before there was a high enough percentage of herd immunity for that to work, suggesting that in the netherlands, where the virus peaked three weeks ago, and by the peak only 3% of the population were immune. now there does seem to be so many studies from all other places into the effectiveness of herd immunity. there was one study from italy. it suggested that 60—65% of the population were already immune before the peak, wejust population were already immune before the peak, we just have no idea how many people are getting this a symptomatically. obviously thatis this a symptomatically. obviously that is so important to know, but i think the idea that we can rely on herd immunity was dismissed a long time ago. but obviously if we did

get that antibody test out now, we found a large percent of the population was immune, that would be great. but this report democrat research is pretty depressing. david, going back to that michael gove quote about what can we trust in terms of experts, so much as been written about all this research being predicated on data, and if the data was rubbish, you will get rubbish. so it is going to take yea rs rubbish. so it is going to take years potentially for this to actually sort of filter through what the truth is? i think that is absolutely entirely true. and when i heard it dominic raab today, there was a sentence he threw that there is no question about hard questions that will have to be answered about how this outbreak happened and

developed. and i go back to this public inquiry that will inevitably be held that may last many, many years and may make the inquiries into a racket seem like small beer —— iraq. in the panel of experts on whatever nationality will be very interesting to study. the common thread which actually unites all these studies, olivia, is the need for testing. and as we were saying earlier on, we are woefully behind the ambitious target for the end of this month in the uk, aren't we? we are, there seems to be lots of problems. one of them i noticed in the times today was apparently we've got a lot of tests but they aren't being used. the government seems to being used. the government seems to be shifting the blame onto nhs bosses who aren't getting out of their staff the message that we do now have thousands and thousands of tests, and apparently we are

throwing away thousands of tests a day. so that is one huge problem. another huge problem to be fair to the government on this is that germany was a big hub before this started, they were far ahead of us, before this outbreak broke out. in the same way that london is far ahead in financial services, frankfurt and berlin doing incredibly well in the pharmaceuticals industry. so they knew what they were doing with testing, they predicted this outbreak, said we weren't ready for it, they had the industry set up so they were ready for it. we couldn't have gotte n they were ready for it. we couldn't have gotten the testing programme that germany has got in the timeframe that they did without any of that kind of back work, which cannot be expected. david, you want to go in? olivia, one must say that we are both lucky enough to be living in one of the fittest, healthiest countries in the planet. and to say we weren't ready, absolutely, i don't know which

country if any was ready. but clearly some are more slightly ready than others. my worry is that the way austerity was carried, particularly towards our care homes, we re i’ui'i particularly towards our care homes, were run down — slightly a perjured of word, but almost certainly the wrong word. but we didn't spend enough priorities... sorry, iwant to move on to some other papers, but the other argument for both of you is that this country was distracted by the terrorist threat which we saw in 2014-15, by the terrorist threat which we saw in 2014—15, then brexit, which has taken so much time secular and social care has been a political football for so long secular every party is to blame for that. that's crack on with another story on the telegraph was not front page. this picture from america, hang on... "

the tests outside virginia state capitol against the country's stay at home border and stay at home business closures." it will be interesting to see what trump says about this because the country is divided in terms of those who want to go back to work, state governors have the executive authority at the moment to impose these locked out. but the white house is clearly pushing to get these borders opened secular exactly, what i think is interesting is that trump is having to enforce some lockdown against his instincts. you want to get his economy moving again. so how he deals with the protest will be interesting. the new york times has a great piece on how... the washington post had a great piece on how donald trump's reaction to this will affect his election chances. isn't that the point? he is on air every day coast—to—coast, taking these press conferences which tend to veer away from coronavirus quite

a lot, don't they? the situation is i was listening earlier today to one of mrtrump's many i was listening earlier today to one of mr trump's many former communication directors, the one in question only lasted 11 days, but be that as it may, others haven't lasted much longer, but that's not a thing. which one, scary movie? yes, he says he thinks trump will win the election, and he thinks it is chances of winning are greater today than they were a month ago. you can believe that or not. olivia, just on mrtrump believe that or not. olivia, just on mr trump saying believe that or not. olivia, just on mrtrump saying on believe that or not. olivia, just on mr trump saying on monday or tuesday saying that he would overrule the governors because he could, constitutionally i don't think that's possible. he's on a complete reversal on that one, saying in the last few hours that it is actually up last few hours that it is actually up to the governors to decide that. he tends to be picking the good aspects about how the country has

been doing this and claiming it for himself, but when it comes to a sort of edge equipment, he blames the governors. it will be interesting to see what he says in a few minutes' time, given what he said about the who and everything else. let's move on to the new york times, because the crisis for hollywood accelerated here. i mean, forso the crisis for hollywood accelerated here. i mean, for so many industries this is the worst possible news. but evenif this is the worst possible news. but even if movie theatres were to be reopened, social distancing measures would destroy that whole cinema experience. this industry facing so many other threats in terms of television and streaming, and everything else. i was lucky enough to be in hollywood in the latter pa rt of la st to be in hollywood in the latter part of last year, and they were looking forward to another golden era. if you are to believe this story in the new york times, they certainly aren't talking about that any more. and you do wonder how

industry heads will cope with the situation, where everything is at a standstill. olivia, this industry has had to ride with the blows over the last 100 years or so, hasn't it? they will come up with ways of changing, andi they will come up with ways of changing, and i suppose one thing might even be the video gaming industry, which of course has a bigger budget now then hollywood itself, doesn't it? i'm sure they will find ways to adapt. but as david was saying, it is very difficult to imagine a time now where we've gotten so used to social distancing, it feels like cinema will be one of the last thing to come back, because it's costing yourself into a dark room with a load of strangers seems absurd now. so if you like hollywood will be seriously bad hit by that with a large tail on that. not many blockbusters for us to watch at the

moment. let's move on to the financial times. this is a timely interview with emmanuel macron, david. if you read in its entirety online, a very different president from the man who came to power with all these ideas for reform and everything else, and putting himself pretty much against angela merkel and holland in terms of how to deal with this crisis financially for the rest of the eu. but who couldn't believe that we would in this situation, in all our years of debates about brexit, as recently as la st debates about brexit, as recently as last november or december. but there is absolutely no doubt that the eu — and not this time because of the brits causing trouble — is in real trouble. the headline, "you's moment of truth." basically one of the

senior officials in brussels was saying today, "we let italy down." that is quite an admission within the european union. we are running out of time, just a final thought from you on that? do you think he can from you on that? do you think he ca n force from you on that? do you think he can force through this euro bonds idea to get the whole block to take on the debt of italy and spain? italy's debt is 175% of gdp right now. it's irrelevant at the moment because emmanuel macron made force the other leaders to take this on. but i think that your skepticism will rise in the eu after this because people care more about their wages now. macron was criticising other eu countries for giving up on their international aid promises in favour of bailing out... olivia a must stop you there, we will speak in about half an hour's time. lovely to have you both. david and olivia will be back

at 11.30pm for another look through them. we'll cross over to donald trump in a few minutes. hello once again. some areas saw a really glorious end to thursday and the cloud began to feed in across some parts of the british isles, especially in the south with signs of a change to the extent that there is in the forecast a little bit of rain on the way for some areas. for many of you that will be quite welcome after a really dry start to april. a waft of cloud is all we really got from this major area of low pressure throwing belts of weather ever further towards the north. but this is the direction we are looking it over the next few days. to see these areas of cloud bringing perhaps a little bit more in the way of significant rainfall to some as we get through friday and indeed on into the weekend. the first signs of that change

really getting into the southwestern counties of england quite early on friday morning. elsewhere it is a dry and fine enough start, but see the rain eventually by lunchtime getting into central and southern parts of wales and then struggles to get north of the m4 corridor. and elsewhere away from the northeastern shores of england, where again there is a fair amount of cloud and onshore breeze, still the onshore breeze to the eastern side of scotland. dry and bright weather to the west of scotland and northern ireland and north—western england and we will see temperatures into the teens. 8—9 on the east coast only. through the course of friday evening, that rain again begins to make a little bit of progress to the northern part of wales. then there are odd heavier thundery burstsw perhaps trying to get across the channel into the southern counties of england. saturday not a great deal of difference. just that we will see further pulses of showery rain trying to work their way that little bit further north.

so it is saturday where we may well see the odd shower or burst of rain just trying to get into the north of england and maybe to northern ireland, but the bulk found across the midlands and towards wales as well. not a great deal changing in the overall set—up so again the temperatures on the east coast around 8—9 degrees, but inland looking at somewhere comfortably into the teens. come sunday, it looks as though we are in for a essentially a dry day. perhaps more cloud coming through the irish sea into northern ireland. the chance of a burst of rain here but elsewhere, it is dry and fine and at this stage we can talk about double figures temperatures on the east coast.

this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. president trump is due to announce guidelines on reopening the us economy. we're expecting him to speak shortly. the uk's lockdown will continue for at least three more weeks as another 861 people lose their lives to coronavirus. the worst thing that we could do right now is to ease up too soon, allow a second peak of the virus to hit the nhs and hit the british people. in brazil, grave—diggers prepare for the worst as cases there rise. the country's president is downplaying the threat. plus, the 99—year—old british veteran who's completed a charity walk in his garden, raising more than $18