this is bbc news. i'm sally bundock with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. one of britain's key scientific advisers stands down after breaking social distancing rules. he admits an error ofjudgement. president trump plans to disband the coronavirus task force within the next month despite the high number of deaths in the us. climate experts predict the global lockdown will see the biggest decline in carbon emissions ever recorded. and the 97—year—old russian war veteran knitting socks for captain tom's 100th birthday and raising money for medical staff.

good to have you with us. we're covering all the latest developments here in the uk and globally. first, the latest figures out of the uk show it now has the highest official death toll from coronavirus in europe, the second highest in the world after the united states. the british government says 29,427 people have now died in the uk, 112 more than the latest figures out of italy. a leading scientist — whose research prompted borisjohnson to introduce the lockdown — has resigned from the government's top advisory group on the pandemic for breaching the rules on social distancing. climate experts say this year will see the biggest decline in carbon emissions ever

recorded because of covid—19. as the us death toll passes 71,000, president trump has confirmed the white house coronavirus task force will be wound down. and the european commission will publish its spring economic forecast for growth, inflation, employment and public finances today. it will be the first outlook that will take into account the impact of the coronavirus on the european economy. details on all of those stories ina details on all of those stories in a moment. but first, on developments in the uk, here'sjon donnison. the peak of this crisis may be passing, but those on the frontline are still dying. hundreds came out to pay their respects to this doctor, a 59—year—old local gp originally from iraq, described as a

loving and compassionate father and husband, had worked in this town for 20 years. he died on the weekend after contracting the weekend after contracting the virus. meanwhile, in a new online video, the government is urging people to stick to the lockdown. but it comes amid awkward headlines in today's daily telegraph with one of boris johnson's key scientific advisors having to step down from his government role. it is vital that we understand... the paper reported that niall ferguson had flouted social distancing rules and his married lover visited his home on two occasions. in a statement, the professor said he had made an error of judgement. it was his mathematical modelling showed the scale of the epidemic in the scale of the epidemic in the uk which led to the government transforming its policy in the way we live our lives. in terms of numbers, another 693 coronavirus steps have been reported in the last

24 have been reported in the last 2a hours in all settings. there have now been a total of 29,427 fatalities in the uk. that is higher than anywhere else in europe, overtaking italy. but italy has a slightly smaller overall population and the government here says it could be months before full global comparisons can be made. in terms of the comparison that you are suggesting, as the scientists have all said, i can remember them talking about this, i don't think we will get a real verdict on how our countries have done until the pandemic is over, particularly until we have comprehensive international date on all cause and fidelity. and amid all the grim news, some remarkable tales of survival. a round of applause for 98—year—old alice atkins, discharged from king george hospital in east london after beating covid—i9. jon donnison, bbc news.

the white house plans to disband within a month the coronavirus task force co—ordinating its response to the pandemic in spite of the persistently high number of cases. president trump said a different group would replace it focused on reopening the us safely. in the past 24 hours, more than 2,300 americans have died, one of the highest daily figures since the pandemic began. 0ur north america correspondent peter bowes reports. a rare trip out of washington for donald trump. after being holed up at the white house during the pandemic, the president to at a factory in phoenix making medical grade face masks. he chose not to wear one, only safety goggles. according to a sign in the facility, staff there are required to wear face masks. during his visit to arizona, a state which will be a key

battleground in november's residential election, he confirmed the coronavirus task force was winding down. the gi’oup force was winding down. the group has been co—ordinating the response to covid—i9. group has been co—ordinating the response to covid—19.|j think that as far as the task force, they have done a great job, but we are now looking at a little bit of a different form, and that form is safety and opening, and we will have a different group to set up for that. are you saying mission accomplished? no, not at all. mission accomplished is when it is over. the coronavirus pandemic is far from is over. the coronavirus pandemic is farfrom being over in the us with about 25,000 new infections every day. the trump administration agency says that number could rise to 200,000 by the end of the month if the daily death toll reaching 3000. a sobering projection comes as more states are beginning to ease their stay—at—home orders with people going back to work at some shops and non—essential businesses in about half the country. in an interview with

abc news, mrtrump country. in an interview with abc news, mr trump acknowledged more lives could be lost as a result of relaxing the guidelines. it is possible that there will be some because you won't be locked into an apartment or a house or whatever it is, but at the same time, we are going to the social distancing, we are going to be washing hands, doing a lot of the things we have learned to do over the last period of time, and we have to get our country back. trump also noted that people were dying because of the economic stress of the down abusing drugs or committing suicide. he said reopening the economy would not be perfect, there would not be perfect, there would be new outbreaks of the virus, but america had to get back to work. peter bowes, bbc news. peter will bejoining us peter will be joining us live shortly for more on what is happening in the us. but now let's focus on the environment. clear skies and wildlife returning to now unpolluted waters arejust some

of the positive effects the global lockdown has had on the environment. so, as the uk looks for ways to come out of the pandemic, could we continue to help reduce climate change by taking fewer flights and driving less? michael cowan reports. a recent global poll of 20,000 people including britons found over 70% of adults think climate change is as serious as coronavirus. 0ver climate change is as serious as coronavirus. over half of the terms would support a green and economic recovery as a uk emergences “— economic recovery as a uk emergences —— that emerges from this planet. 4i% emergences —— that emerges from this planet. 41% of respondents said they would avoid things like flying in the next year, to limit their contribution to emissions. so, could you continue with some lockdown measures like not driving as much and stopping flying? if it was to help climate change? much and stopping flying? if it was to help climate change ?m we need to pop out, walk to the shops and support local businesses instead ofjust driving to a main supermarket.

lam driving to a main supermarket. i am relaxed, driving to a main supermarket. lam relaxed, sitting here, doing nothing, not jumping around in airports, i don't think we will be going abroad for a long time. i have family in the us and australia, israel. i love keeping up with my family. the amount of flying, of course, but i will think twice how to do it.|j flying, of course, but i will think twice how to do it. i am surprised to be —— supposed to be flying two separate occasions during this lockdown, and both of them i can't do, because i can't do them, feel like i want to get into these places more. but change is hard for us to commit to without concrete reasoning. i would love to be able to do so, people will carry on and it is a good thing. sarah lewis is a behavioural psychologist.“ a good thing. sarah lewis is a behavioural psychologist. if we think about the coronavirus at the moment, that is really interesting because the motivation is very strong, the

consequence is pretty immediate. if you can, you are in trouble. the motivation to avoid it is very strong and thatis avoid it is very strong and that is one of the reasons people have complied with the guidance so readily is because we can really see the benefit, there is a real difference between compliance and commitment and what you are talking about is will people be committed to this behaviour afterwards ? committed to this behaviour afterwards? well, at the moment, why would they be? no—one has made it clear why they should continue in this behaviour when they don't have too. one reason to continue is the impact we are already having on emissions stop according to this professor at university oxford. the biggest drop in emissions from bubbly on record between five and 10%, but we have to get emissions down to zero that we need 100% reduction, and it is likely that there will be a lot of

people who have lost theirjobs or short on income, building up the rest of the renewable energy of the structure jar, the storage infrastructure, putting an electric vehicle, charging, biplanes etc couple. all these things that we know we are going to have to do, and if you have to do it now. change on this scale is difficult and would require buying a society as well as a strong come from government. but if we did manage to permanently implement some of these measures, this devastating pandemic might albeit unwittingly create a pathway to a greener planet. michael cowan, bbc news. let's get some of the day's other news. the german chancellor, angela merkel, will meet the country's 16 state leaders later, and it's expected there will be approval for a significant lifting of restrictions. there have been a growing number of demonstrations against continued restrictions.

mrs merkel has said children's play areas and museums can reopen and church services can resume under strict social distancing and hygiene rules. the european commission will publish it spring economic forecast for gdp, inflation, employment and finances today. it will be the first outlook that will take into account the impact of the coronavirus on the european economy. the head of a charity, which protects african wildlife, tusk, says the coronavirus pandemic is the biggest threat to conservation in his 30 years of working in the sector. the number of coronavirus cases across africa is relatively low, but despite this, the tourism industry has collapsed. there are reports of an increase in poaching. virgin atlantic has announced plans to cut more than 3,000 jobs in the uk and to end its operation at london's gatwick airport.

virgin blamed what it called the devastating effect of the pandemic. it's another major blow for gatwick, the second busiest airport in the uk, just days after british airways said it could not rule out closing its operations there as well. virgin's founder, sir richard branson, has warned the airline will collapse unless it receives government support. let's speak to ross ‘rusty‘ aimer, former pilot with 40 years of professional experience, now ceo of aero consulting experts. thank you very much for being on the programme. give us your ta ke on the programme. give us your take on the challenges facing the airline industry globally. virgin is the latest example of a company that is cutting thousands of staff and calling for financial thousands of staff and calling forfinancial aid. thousands of staff and calling for financial aid. obviously, virgin is not alone in this. as

much as i try to paint a rosy picture with the airline industry, i failed to do so. i am afraid there is going to be extreme turbulence subhead for the airline in general and related businesses to the airline industry. that is the bloodline and our economy depends on travelling. however, u nfortu nately, we depends on travelling. however, unfortunately, we will learn that it unfortunately, we will learn thatitis unfortunately, we will learn that it is also the fastest way to transport this virus around the world. should governments rescue airlines? we have seen companies like air france, alitalia, should governments bail them out? you alitalia, should governments bailthem out? you know, that is very hard to explain and imagine that we could continue

doing this. it was just a month or two, doing this. it was just a month ortwo, i doing this. it was just a month or two, i would say, yes, definitely, the industry needs to be protected. however, from all indications, this is going to be an extremely bumpy ride, it is going to take a long time. i don't think that any government has enough money to save all the airlines. i am afraid there is going to be a lot of airlines being victims, getting bought out orjust simply going out of business. just quickly, talkers about the logistics, how will they do this in fact they lay off thousands of workers including pilots and how did they manage that when business returns?

pilots have a low shelf life, after 90 days, if i do not make three takeoffs after 90 days, if i do not make three ta keoffs and after 90 days, if i do not make three takeoffs and landings, i cannot carry any more as a pilot. 0nce cannot carry any more as a pilot. once this massive number of pallets around the world lose their currency as we call it, it is going to be extremely costly a nd it, it is going to be extremely costly and time—consuming to get them recalled. in other words, you have to send all these pilots back into the simulator, which is very expensive and retrain them and get them to their currency, and it will be a monumental task, just by itself, just to get everybody ready to get back into the cockpit. interesting. thank you. good to talk to you. a former pilot with eric consulting experts, his business. you are watching bbc news. the headlines: one of britain's key scientific advisers has stood down

after breaking social distancing rules. he admitted an "error ofjudgement". climate experts are predicting the global lockdown will see the the biggest decline in carbon emissions ever recorded. let's get more now on the white house is planning to end the work of its coronavirus task force within weeks. 0ur north america correspondent peter bowes joins us. peter, what are people saying about this? is this too soon to change the guard and focus? there are certainly going to be critics to say that now simply is not the time to end this task force. when you look at the numbers around america, which are continuing to rise and infact which are continuing to rise and in fact in the last three days there have been a couple of forecasts that they are dramatic increase in the number of new infections and roughly double the number of deaths that have been predicted, just two or three weeks ago. the

lots of questions as to why now? it seems the focus now of the president is on reopening the president is on reopening the country. that is exactly what he said earlier, that he wa nts to what he said earlier, that he wants to safely reopen the country so the task force will be disbanded as it is and he will retain some of the medical experts, two of the doctors who have become quite familiar faces on american television over the last few weeks with those very long briefing sessions at the white house. there will be a different focus and the focus will be on business. and that has been very clear from the president for several weeks now about reopening the economy, getting people back to work, business back. in different states though, different measures are being lifted in different ways and many would argue that that is where confusion is? yeah, there is a lot of confusion, not only across the country in different states but within the states as well. california, where i am right now, we have

different counties who may be on the beach and opening areas in certain partsjust on the beach and opening areas in certain parts just to the north of los angeles, and ave ntu ra, north of los angeles, and aventura, they opened but los angeles county did not open their beaches and what you get is some people who live in one area where the beaches and facilities are closed, drive 30 miles to somewhere whether beaches are open. and that is exactly what the authorities do not want to happen. there is a lot of confusion but it is that the president baking earlier acknowledge that in reopening the country, relaxing the guidelines, some people may lose their lives because they will not be self isolating — talking earlier, and they will be getting back to their workplace and socialising again at the same time he said, and you made a strong point of saying that currently people are losing their lives because of the economic hardship, whether through the use of drugs or suicide. there are two ways to look at that but he certainly sees the way forward as gradually getting the

country back to work. thank you. many people who contract covid—i9 are still suffering serious symptoms many weeks later. the virus is often viewed in its extremes, either mild and short—lived or deadly but, for many, the impact lies somewhere in between. dominic hughes reports. i have suspected coronavirus. what i was not prepared for was just the excruciating leg pains. it has been seven weeks now. that feeling of being so diminished and so weak. and came back on week four. and on the fifth week, my partner had to call out a and a. week seven, i had my third wave. for six weeks now felicity, age 49 from london have been living with suspected coronavirus. david, 42, from bristol, has

spent two months suffering relapses. this is where i have all my stuff, i make sure i have cutlery and bold separate. david's world has shrunk to this room, self isolated to protect his wife and baby daughter. eating and sleeping here separately from my wife for the last seven weeks, hard work. just when he thought he was getting better, he relapsed and is not alone. just knowing people like me who have experienced these ways of on and off because when i first relapsed, when i got worst, it was quite a scary experience because i thought that, you don't know whether that means you are going down, down, down, so you are going down, down, down, so it is quite scary to get worse after you thought you we re worse after you thought you were getting better. when i was really ill i was going on my hands and knees up and down the stairs. felicity has also struggled to shake off covert type symptoms and the weeks of illness have taken their toll.

the entire experience of being sick and trying to recover has been mentally overwhelming. the ha rd est pa rt been mentally overwhelming. the hardest part was having got through the first ten days of being very sick, and thinking i was getting better, things later getting much, much worse, i was experiencing such horrific ab pains that i was calling out in extreme agony. neither felicity nor david have been tested but both were told by doctors they probably had the virus. they've also been reassured they no longer are infectious and their recovery has been slow. the slightest uphill slope is a real struggle since being ill. so much about the coronavirus is unknown, including why some experience relatively mild symptoms lasting a few days while otherwise healthy people are left struggling for weak. in many patients you do tend to

see this waxing and wailing effect as he slowly getting better and you have good days and bad some evidence suggests that the prolonged features are the body 's response to infection, rather than the infection, rather than the infection itself persisting in their body. the first week i started to keep a diary of the symptoms are experienced and i didn't expect i would have to use a second didn't expect i would have to use a second page didn't expect i would have to use a second page of paper. david and felicity hope they are now, finally, recovering, i returned to normal family life. my wife would bring my daughter to the window, it was lovely. dominic hughes, bbc news. you might remember captain tom moore, the war veteran who captured the hearts of people around the world when he raised millions for the health service, in the uk. now, he has inspired a 97—year—old sergeant,

zinaida korneva, who served in the russian army in wwii to raise money for russian medics. 0ur moscow correspondent steve rosenberg spoke to her. a message for captain tom moore, from sergeant zinaida korneva, when 97—year—old russian war veteran zinaida korneva saw these images of captain tom moore during his sponsored walk for the nhs, she realised her country needed her! zinaida korneva could not do 100 laps of her garden, last year she broke her hip. instead, she has been sharing wartime memories online and asking for donations. it is to help the families of russian doctors who have died in the pandemic.

zinaida korneva is a real russian hero. she served in an anti—aircraft brigade and fought in the battle of stalingrad. these days, when she is not fundraising, she is knitting, and she hasjust finished a pair of socks for captain tom moore. her socks are now winging their way back to britain, express delivery. so, if captain tom moore ever wants to do more charity walking, at least his feet will be warm! steve rosenberg, bbc news.

you see, he is such an inspiration, captain tom moore. i will be back with the top business stories in a moment. hello there. there's a real shock in store for this weekend. but, before we get there, it is getting warmer. it will turn very warm in many places. mind you, early wednesday morning, it's not going to feel very warm. maybe a pinch of frost in some rural parts in eastern areas, underneath the clearer skies and lighter winds. with the lighter winds, it will feel warmer in the sunshine on wednesday. and, for many of us, there will be a lot of that to come. one or two exceptions, a bit more cloud threatening one or two showers in the far south—west of england and wales. and there is more cloud coming in across the northern isles of scotland. but, with lighter winds, it will feel warm in the sunshine. temperatures are likely to be higher on wednesday, probably peaking at around 19—20 degrees. now, during the evening and overnight, we'll start to see more of this cloud running its way northwards, up through the irish sea

and towards northern ireland, threatening a few more showers for these western parts of the uk. further east though, we'll have clearer skies and light winds. again, another chilly night. but, because it's a bit warmer by day, it may not get quite as chilly by the end of the night and into thursday morning. we have still got high pressure in charge. it will shrink away towards the south—east, and that is where we'll see the heat for longer. further north and west, these weather fronts encroaching, threatening some showers and a bit more cloud. and we'll certainly see more of that coming in on thursday across northern ireland, up into scotland — a few sharp showers here, and perhaps the chance of a shower across more western parts of england and wales. head further east, though, a good chance it will stay dry. still a fair bit of sunshine around, and those temperatures are continuing to rise, up to 22—23 celsius. probably the peak of the warmth is going to be on friday, and that's for the south—east of the uk. may be a bit more cloud across england and wales, northern ireland, maybe one or two showers breaking out as well. but we've got this band of rain across northern scotland, and here, those temperatures

are dropping away quite markedly. further south, where we'll see those temperatures 24—25 degrees, a very warm day. that band of rain is on that weather front there, and that will be significant, because it's that that's going to sweep its way southwards during this weekend, and behind it, a stronger northerly wind will push down much colder air across all areas. now, on saturday, it will be cooler across the northern half of the uk, perhaps some rain. further south, still largely dry and warm, with some sunshine. but even here, it gets much colder on sunday, with temperatures dropping as much as 10—11 degrees.

this is bbc news with the latest business headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. a warm welcome. i'm sally bundock. while travel may be on hold during the pandemic, there is still a need for efficient freight services to deliver medical equipment and personal protection. we'll speak to one of the biggest players in the field, fedex. the magic kingdom loses some of its shine as closed theme parks and cancelled cruises leaves a dent in disney's results.

let's focus on the top business stories. here in europe, we will have a sense of how economies are doing as they start to try to reopen. how quickly is business picking 7 later this morning, the european commission will publish its spring economic forecast, which will give us a sense of the damage the pandemic has done to the eu's economy this year. 0ne indicator of trade and business is freight and cargo, which can provide an early signal of turning points in economic activity. one of the biggest players in that field is fedex, so what are they seeing across europe at the moment? joining me now is bert nappier, president of fedex express europe. thank you for being on the programme. just tell us what you are seeing programme. just tell us what you are seeing now programme. just tell us what you are seeing now in terms of changes in europe in your business. absolutely. we are seeing a lot of things happen, particularly across trade, and there is no way the pandemic

hasn't impacted trade across the world. i think you will see that report later today, a little bit downbeat on where we will see the economy, where it has been. but as we look ahead, we can look at optimism coming out of asia. they were first m, out of asia. they were first in, first out and we are starting to see some green shoot, positive signs of life in the european economy over the last few weeks, particularly as things have started to ease up. i think you will see some downbeat reports, we have seen that in the data recently. but as we look ahead, we are not going to see a recovery, the shape of that, the timing will be dictated to how the rest —— an easing of restrictions were, but also, that we avoid a second outbreak. your business has changed dramatically. you of course are key in terms of delivery, so you have been a pa rt delivery, so you have been a part of a network delivering ppe equipment in northern italy, france, the uk, etc. talk us through the logistics of that. we have, and it really has highlighted the unique

capabilities that fedex has. it has brought us to the forefront in response to the pandemic. bringing ventilators, breathing a whip went to critical hospitals in countries, testing kits, supplies or vaccines. in france, 9 million masks to support the response there. we adjusted our networks to focus on getting the critical supplies, but what it really does fa rces supplies, but what it really does farces highlight the power of our networks, but brings to the forefront the importance of trade and how important it is for us to be able to move these goods because no country has been self—contained in its response to the pandemic. there is no doubt it is absolutely critical, and some of your key markets have been hit hardest, the us notably. i know your area is europe of course, but i wa nted area is europe of course, but i wanted to ask you about what is going on in the us where five fedex employees died at the airport hub, delivery workers are at risk and there has been

are at risk and there has been a lot of criticism pointed out fedex about how you have protected your workers. sure, and start with the situation thatis and start with the situation that is tragic and our thoughts and prayers are with those families in the fedex family is doing everything we can to support those very difficult situation. in terms of how we are responding, we think we have done a lot to make sure we protect the safety of our employees. safety has been a hallmark of fedex for nearly 50 yea rs, hallmark of fedex for nearly 50 years, it is part of our existence, and our investment and safety is a top priority for us, taking sure of our team members and we have done a lot in the regard, supplying masks, gloves, sanitiser, wipes, working from home where that is possible, enforcing the social distancing, and in many cases, we suspended our signature requirements to protect not only our employees, but our customers as well. if i quote the newjersey senator, he said iam the newjersey senator, he said i am concerned about reports of

loosely enforced policy, insufficient access to ppe, inadequate sanitation within the facility. that fedex was running. yes, senator, we appreciate his comments and we have a very collaborative environment at fedex and we listen to our employees, we listen to our employees, we listen to our customers, and we responded to him publicly and made sure we addressed his concerns in a letter back to him directly. we continue to focus on safety and senator booker committee has any other things we can look at, we invite him to the facility to see firsthand how we are investing in our team members and safety. obviously in the airline industry we are hearing about companies under extreme pressure and duress, virgin airlines the latest to say they have laid off staff, guitar as well. as economies release there attractions and measures, how quickly are you going to be

able to respond to demand in terms of business to business -- qatar. i think we can flex the recovery very quickly. we have adjusted our network to support governments and hospitals and their needs and i believe that we will be able to flex very quickly in the recovery. we have a lot of experience with 50 years of working in this industry and adjusting our networks, their dynamic and we are unable to —— not able to adjust quickly. we will respond quickly and you can watch the pace and timing of recovery and really be able to adjust how restrictions are easing across europe. thank you for your time. the president of fedex express europe. let's get some of the day's other news. 0nline booking platform airbnb is planning to cut 25% of its staff as it grapples with plunging travel due to the pandemic. the company also said it would scale back or halt newer initiatives such as investments in hotels and luxury resorts and flights. the firm is bracing for revenues to drop by half or worse this year.

germany was in the constitutional court has given the european central bank freeman —— months to prove a programme was justified despite some of its potential negative impacts. purchases could continue under the court's ruling, but the german bundesbank might not be able to participate. gloom in the house of mouse — walt disney suffered a $1.4 billion hit to profits in the first three months of the year as it closed its parks, cancelled movie releases and reduced advertising sales. every part of its business was affected by coronavirus, nearly wiping out profits for the quarter. disney chairman bob iger said the firm was facing "unprecedented" challenges but he was confident of recovery. a first sign of this — the firm is already planning to open its shanghai theme park on 11 may.

let's talk through their results. joining me now is guy bisson, research director at ampere analysis. thank you for being on the programme. what you make of disney's results? it was bound to be hit extremely hard given its theme parks, that side of its theme parks, that side of its business. absolutely. we we re its business. absolutely. we were expecting this, and as you say, theme parks account for about 40% of its income. that 1.4 billion hit that you mention, 1 billion of that was from theme parks, so that is a very significant hit on the business, and of course every other area that they are in from the advertising market, the tv market, the movie business has been hit as well. 0ne bright spot is the direct consumer operations. disney plus as well was very timely with its launch just prior to lockdowns being implemented globally —— disney+, its

streaming service has proved to be very popular, hasn't it? incredibly, and as everyone is in lockdown, the consumption of streaming content has gone through the roof stop just to put it in perspective, direct consumer business accounted for just 7% of revenue last year, but is now up to 23%. very significant contributor at least to the revenue, where of course it is still a cost item during the rollout phase. and there is a new boss in charge, new chief executive taking over. i believe bobs fire is staying fairly hands—on through this crisis. but disney had to think about how does it reopen theme parks, retain social distancing and limit capacity. it is going to be extremely hard, isn't it? it is, in mind they have only had the theme parks closed in the us for two weeks of the quarter. the hit next quarter will be even

greater. they are already reopening shanghai from next week and they are talking about social distancing measures and limiting the queues in the volume of people that they let into that park. but in terms of reopening the domestic parks, the us parks, a much bigger contributor to the business, thatis contributor to the business, that is anyone's yes when those will reopen. also, of course, people can't get around the world at the moment, we can't even plan or think about holidays outside of the country we are living in right now. just looking forward at the future quarters to disney, this will hit this company for a few yea rs, will hit this company for a few years, isn't it? well, it is certainly a medium to short time very significant. this quarter, only two weeks of lockdown in this quarter, the next quarter is bound to be much worse. but they are a very, very strong brand and a very, very strong brand and a very strong company, and once we come out of town, i would expect them to bounce back

fairly quickly. thank you for your time. good to see you so early in the morning. as economies around the world grapple with their pandemic lockdowns, we're hearing a lot about what the global recovery from coronavirus would look like. for example, a v—shaped or u—shaped economic recovery. whatever else is in the alphabet for you! bbc reporter monica miller helps break down the alphabet soup of predictions. lots of talk right now about how the pandemic will affect the global economy. but how long that downturn lasts and when the economy recovers is really anybody‘s call. economists love charts. you may have heard them talk about recession trends as if they are reading the alphabet. a, b, c... let's begin with the v. nab shaped recession, the economy suffers a steep fall, hits the bottom quickly and then recovers at a galloping

pace. there is no looking back. see you! more and more analysts are pouring cold water on the idea that the economy will recover like the v. they think it will be more like the u. in this scenario, gdp shrinks and then the economyjust bumps along at the bottom for a while, typically several quarters. it takes longer to recover. some experts say measures to control the pandemic, lockdowns, social distancing, will be in place for a while and so it could ta ke two for a while and so it could take two years for the global economy to get back up to speed. 0ut economy to get back up to speed. out of all the letters in the alphabet, the most feared is l. and l shaped recession is long. 0ne feared is l. and l shaped recession is long. one where economic growth is painfully slow. i mean, extremely slow. come on... come on. an l—shaped recovery see the downturn followed by yea rs recovery see the downturn followed by years of, well, nothing. no economic growth.

thinkjapan in the 1990s. sometimes called it lost decade, or the great depression in the united states. then there is double dipping. now, i am not talking about the etiquette involving crackers and avocado dip. i am talking about the w shaped recovery, the downturn starts like av but that recovery then falters and the economy slips into a recession a second time. the economy slips into a recession a second timelj the economy slips into a recession a second time. i want to get it open as soon as we can, we have to get our country open. relaxing any of the measures currently in place risks damage to both public health and the economy. a countries go back to business as usual too soon, they may have to shut it down all over again. that is our look at the alphabet recession. which letter do you think is most likely for the world economy? tell me what you think. 0ur thanks to monica. that is so useful. it's quickly show you the financial markets so you can see how they are doing today. japan still close for the holiday. a mixed picture in

asia. trading slightly stronger than expected in some areas. basically investors weighing what is ahead in the weeks ahead for various things like oil prices, etc, as economy start to reopen. you are watching bbc news. the headlines: one of britain's key scientific advisers has stood down after breaking social distancing rules. he's admitted an error ofjudgement. climate experts are predicting the global lockdown will see the the biggest decline in carbon emissions ever recorded. let's look at india now, which has been in lockdown for more than 1.5 months. in that time, pollution levels have dropped in cities that were trapped by smog. as the restrictions are slowly lifted, there are fears that the bad air could return, as the bbc‘s divya arya reports from delhi. a blanket of smog so thick, it was hiding delhi's iconic

landmarks. one of the world's most polluted cities, it is breathing easy now. the horrifying pictures from the grey winter months, fading away to post lockdown summer skies. for some, this has been a precious breath of fresh air, and rena has been taking medication for allergic bronchitis for five years now. when i step out these days, i really feel that freshness and i really feel that, you know, the air inside my lungs. and i can say that, yes, i can breathe properly. and the difficulty of coughing and difficulty of sneezing hasjust gone. apart from an odd pedi cab or essential services like the police, delhi has seen almost no traffic, as schools, offices, shops and industries were shut. i've lived in delhi for most of my life.

now, the summer here is dusty, the sky is white, but it's definitely less polluted than winter. but this, this is something else. it's like we've had a deep cleanse. air quality experts say the delhi summer has never been cleaner. for residents in some northern indian cities, it was like rediscovering their neighbourhood, as one morning, they woke up to the view of the himalayan peaks. during the lockdown, emergency admissions for respiratory ailments have almost halved, but as it has eased now, doctors fear this could change very quickly. if everything returns to business as usual,

and we have as many vehicles and everything on roads, this pollution levels, which will deteriorate very rapidly, pollution damages lungs, that's proved beyond doubt. damaged lungs are more prone to get covid and more prone to dying when covid happens, that's also proved. it's notjust the air that has benefited from the lockdown, rivers too are running cleaner than ever, but this may change soon, and international studies have suggested that high levels of air pollution could raise the risk of dying from covid—19. as the country restarts, it may have to pause to prepare for this challenge too. divya arya, bbc news, delhi.

indigenous communities in ecuador are fearing extension. in crowded corridors laying on floors, covid—19 patients with nowhere else to go in loreto, peru. the amazonian region is one of the country's worst effected, and doctors say they're not coping. translation: we are living in a terrible situation, a desperate situation. we see people die every day and we cannot deliver the necessary supplies. oxygen is running low and protective gear is lacking. three doctors from the region have died of the novel coronavirus. 17 others have requested a transfer to peru's capital city for better care. in neighbouring ecuador, members of the siekopai tribe are fleeing into the amazon forest for better protection. tribe leaders fear their nation of 700 people is at risk

of extinction. translation: in previous centuries, our people have been a victim of these types of diseases. today, we do not want the same thing to happen. traditional survival skills are now being used in an attempt to outrun the virus, which is escalating across latin america at an alarming pace. over the past couple of months, the pandemic has created immense difficulties for people with learning disabilities and those with underlying health issues who find themselves having to self—isolate but a choir in oxford has shown that music can be one means of challenging the isolation. the soundabout inclusive choir has harnessed technology to support its members as fergal keane reports. # amazing grace, how sweet

the sound...# a voice from a deep confinement. music helps make isolation bearable for sam pittick, aged 37. he has a vulnerable immune system and can't leave home. # i once was lost, but now am found # was blind...# and when you're all singing together, what does that feel like? i feel more powerful when i'm singing. i feel my own voice, and the power of music. now it's got to this fifth week, it's very, very difficult for him. sam's mum, ann, keeps a video diary for him, here filming his daily exercise.

that's lovely. good lad. she is in her 70s, her husband in his 80s, both with severe underlying health conditions. the carers who once visited sam every day can't come anymore. we're sort of struggling on with it, and the carer usually does it through the phone for him. "come on, sam, you've got to get in the bath, you've got to get washed" and things like that. it means no more face—to—face sessions with his beloved choir, founded last year by the charity soundabout, and at the centre of life for dozens of special needs people in oxford. for different families, different challenges. choir drummer matthew nicholls was born blind and unable to speak. he cherishes the human touch of his brother, cj, of his parents. but matthew lives in supported accommodation, and because of the virus, can't have visits.

his mum, sophia, and father, nigel, bring freshly baked bread which they leave at the entrance for their child. you know, he likes to give you a big hug and a squeeze and a kiss. we miss him quite a lot. so, i mean, i must be honest and say that i do miss him. i miss him because also, not knowing this how long this lockdown is going to be for, you think, if it's only a few weeks, which is what i thought it was originally, we'd at least be able to see him. but now, you know, we don't know how long it's going to be. but, in a time of general anxiety, what is striking about the choir families is their optimism and good humour. 14 years ago, edward shryane was too weak to cry. listen to him now. # whoa—oh—oh, on the radio...# what does the sound of a choir — what does it mean to you? incredible — it's changed my life, and i think... i'm just lost for words. can i ask you a very fundamental question? what does he mean to you?

you mean everything, don't you, eds? oh, my god! thank you, that's the right answer. i mean, thanks. drives me insane. thank you, that is the right answer. but there is another reason for laughter. using video conference, the choir overcomes isolation and reunites. and matthew hears the sound of his mother's laughter. # matthew, hope you have a really good week # lily bartlett, blind, with special educational needs, taught herself piano, and leads in the choir‘s version of an anthem for our times. # when you got what you want but not what you need # # lights will guide

you home # # and ignite your bones...# # i will try to fix you.# applause fergal keane, bbc news, 0xford. brilliant. a few of you have beenin brilliant. a few of you have been in touch with the kind of recovery we're going to see the following one of camilla's explanation of one of the letters. we have heard from various viewers. this is 1: he

thinks it could be a w shape. ashley james thinks that it is av ashley james thinks that it is a v shape. we are all hoping for that, ashley. see you soon. hello there. today will be cooler across the board but as the week goes on, temperatures all rise once again, picking on friday in the sunshine. for many parts of the country, whether as dominated by the area of high pressure, keeping it dry and clear. if lining ointment, and it is a big fly, is this weather front, bringing with and windy weather in the south—west through the early hours ending into tuesday, a wet start to the west of south england, heavy rain and strong and ghastly

easterly winds and the south—west of wales, gusts of up south—west of wales, gusts of up to 50,55 mph. the winds will ease later on through the morning and the afternoon, and the rain will edge its way eastwards to the south coast of sussex, northwards into wales and they become lighter and patchy in the afternoon. elsewhere, dry, lots of sunshine around and a keen breeze to start with across england and wales, and northern ireland and winds will ease and high temperatures across western scotland and north—west england, but cooler in the south—west, only 12 degrees. the rain continued to peter out during the evening. the cloud more reluctant to break up overnight and cloud spilling its way in the top of air of high pressure into shetland and albany but the clearest guys in scotla nd albany but the clearest guys in scotland and north—east of england, could be a pinch of frost in rural areas once again,. cooler areas will get washed away by the gentle southerly breeze, bringing the warmth up from the south—western temperatures will

rise. by the time we get into wednesday, most places will be dry with a good deal of sunshine, chance of sunshine in the far south—west and there will be more cloud coming in across the northern isles of scotla nd across the northern isles of scotland so cooler it here otherwise a warmer day on wednesday and is temperatures getting up to 20 or even 21 celsius in the sunshine. those temperatures continue to rise to many areas on thursday and friday. there will be cloud for scotla nd friday. there will be cloud for scotland and northern ireland, may be a few showers but england and wales, probably dry and sunshine in the south—east, temperatures could reach 25 on friday. a shock to the system for the weekend! the wind changes for the northerly and strengthens and draws down cold air, unusually cold at this time of year, cold enough for even some wintry showers!

good morning, welcome to breakfast, with dan walker and louise minchin. 0ur headlines today: one of the government's key coronavirus advisers, whose work prompted the lockdown, has quit his post for breaking social distancing rules. in the us, which has recorded the world's deadliest outbreak of covid—19, donald trump says the white house is switching its focus to reviving the country's economy. we are going to put out little members and little fires but we are still going to have to go back to work. a major threat to our tv channels and newspapers —