this is bbc news with the latest headlines. boris johnson reviews the coronavirus lockdown with his cabinet, having suggested some rules could be eased from monday, but the government are still urging caution. we have got to continue on the process we have had, doing everything we can to ensure people's safety.

the bank of england warns that the uk is heading for its deepecst recession on record, with economic output likely to fall by 14% this year due to coronavirus. hundreds of thousands of surgical gowns, ordered from turkey last month, haven't been given to nhs workers because they don't meet british safety standards. in the next half hour we'll get analysis of deaths from coronavirus by ethnicity and social background. tourism is one of the worse affected sectors in the uk and elsewhere, how will the industry recover? we have a special report from blackpool. and we will meet again — a new official portrait of dame vera lynn is unveiled to mark the 75th anniversary of ve day. in sport, fresh warnings about the premier league returning before it is safe to do so as germany prepares for matches to restart as early as next friday

after government approval. good morning. welcome to bbc news. i'm annita mcveigh. the prime minister is to chair a meeting of the cabinet shortly to review the coronavirus lockdown, having signalled some measures will be relaxed from next monday. borisjohnson will set out his plans on sunday where the government's core ‘stay at home‘ message is expected to be changed as ministers look to kick—start the economy. although many rules are expected to stay in place, guidance on exercising once a day could be relaxed as well as other rules on going outside. meanwhile, the bank of england has warned the uk is already in a deep recession, with the economy set to shrink by 14% this year —

the biggest one—off contraction in over 300 years. thousands of pieces of personal protective equipment ordered from turkey last month have not been delivered to front line health workers after they failed to meet safety standards. and the office for national statistics is to publish new data shortly on the impact of covid—19 on society, and the full breakdown of the ethnicity of uk deaths. more on that coming up. our first report this morning is from jon donnison. olume and isi ivowi — brothers and best friends, both victims of covid—19. olume died on good friday in luton. he was 46. isi, who had down‘s syndrome, died nine days later, in milton keynes. he was 38. the family, who could not be by their sides when they died, are urging people to stick to the lockdown.

social distancing, making sure you stay at home, don't go out if you don't need to, and if you do go out, follow the guidelines, listen to all the medical professionals because they are the ones that can really guide us through this and be sensible, because this does kill people. and the number dying continues to rise. 649 more deaths were confirmed yesterday, making the uk the first country in europe to pass 30,000. in online videos and elsewhere, the government is still urging people to stick to the lockdown, but it's understood the government's core stay—at—home message is to be scrapped at the weekend. the prime minister is due to make an announcement on sunday, but officials say don't expect dramatic changes. restrictions will most likely remain largely in place. we have to be sure that the data is going to support our ability to do this.

that data is coming in continuously over the next few days. we'll want, if we possibly can, to get going with some of these measures on monday. i think it will be a good thing, mr speaker, if people had an idea of what's coming the following day, and that's why i think sunday, the weekend, is the best time to do it. meanwhile, the government is still facing questions on testing. here, the military are helping test key workers but since the weekend, the government has failed to meet its target of 100,000 tests a day, and there are still concerns about protective equipment for the nhs. in april, an raf cargo plane was dispatched to fly in ppe supplies from turkey. the government has now confirmed that 400,000 surgical gowns that were delivered have been unusable because they did not meet the required safety standards. it will add to claims that the health service has not received the support it needs.

tonight, though, as on every thursday for the past six weeks, people will yet again take to the streets to clap for their carers. jon donnison, bbc news. 0ur political correspondent iain watson is at westminster. good morning. sense of expectation on some of the front pages of papers this morning about what the prime minister will announce the weekend. but to what extent do you think the government is still going to be urging caution no matter what the prime minister says on sunday?” think they will be very cautious, i think they will be very cautious, i think there will be an exercise in managing expectations between now and sunday given that some of the newspaper front pages seem to be very enthusiastic about the easing of restrictions. we would expect to see on monday the prime minister suggesting there would be some changes, we are likely to see, for example, relaxation of the rules on outdoor activities. is currently the

advice of course is to exercise once advice of course is to exercise once a day and you might expect that to be broadened and people to be able to travel to the countryside, for example, or less active outdoors as well because the government is saying that from the evidence, the virus is less virulent and there is less chance of catching it if you're outdoors. but overall, if you talk to people in downing street or whitehall, they are saying very much this will be a phased approach that they take. for example, they will be assessing all along the way if the infection rate starts to go up and some of the measures the prime minister will outline on sunday, and this is why they are calling it a road map, some of those could end in a dead end and they could say we're not going any further at this stage. i would be cautious about reports that seem to know some kind of timetable for lifting a lot of the restrictions. i think it will be very small steps initially. the other thing they have to try to do is encourage people who perhaps

could go work to go back to work because some businesses have closed even though, under the current restrictive lockdown, they could impact have opened. i think to try and restart the economy, they would do that. earlier, brandon lewis, the northern ireland secretary, who is the rounds for the government in the media, was emphasising notjust that the government would be cautious in the government would be cautious in the future but telling people again that no restrictions, even though they are being reviewed with a cabinet meeting, no restrictions would be lifted on the bank holiday weekend. i fully appreciate that, i appreciate there will be people who have been in lockdown for a considerable number of weeks, doing so in difficult circumstances. small properties with families, and i'm very, very keen, particularly if we do see the good weather that is being promised this bank holiday weekend, but i would just say to people, i would really urge caution. the safest thing to do at the moment with this virus and the way it spreads is, whenever you can, to stay home. yes, get out and get that daily exercise, and if you can't work from home and can work in safe circumstances, then the guidelines are there

for that very purpose. but we have got to continue in the process we have had and we are doing everything we can to ensure people's safety. of course, the fact is that the government does not have the number of daily tests where it wants it to be, i'm talking about actual tests and not testing capacity. it hasn't got a fully effective track and trace got a fully effective track and tra ce syste m got a fully effective track and trace system in place yet. does it have a big job on it sans to actually convince people they can be confident enough to get out there a bit more —— on its hands?” confident enough to get out there a bit more -- on its hands? i think that's absolutely right. the government expected something like 875% compliance rate with the current restrictions and in fact it has exceeded that —— a 75% compliance rate. at the moment they are finding it far more difficult to get out of lockdown than to go into it in the first place and there will be challenges with people going back to work and how you socially distance on public transport. but also the psychological element as

well. people are worried about the virus if they see 30,000 deaths taking place in this country alone and they may be very reluctant to go back to work or expanded activities evenif back to work or expanded activities even if and when they are allowed. i think there has to be confidence building measures, there's been talk from the prime minister about wearing face masks at work which might make people feel confident but there will also have to be a plan outlined on sunday about making workplaces a safe and ensuring social distancing, the two metre gap in workplaces where possible, or if there are other ways around it including the installation taps of screens and other protective measures. there a big job to do —— installation perhaps. hardly surprising that the bank of england are expecting the biggest economic contraction for about 300 years, at least in the short term, and obviously there are many workers are still on the government furlough

scheme. to date labour were pressing for more flexible tea in that scheme from the government and of course there are concerns also that there might bea there are concerns also that there might be a sharp cliff edge when that scheme comes to an edge injune so the shadow chancellor, anneliese dodds, was calling for new measures from the government. unfortunately, some kind of an economic impact was unavoidable, given the social distancing measures. the big question is what we do now. first of all, we are seeing that the so—called furlough scheme, that backfills people's pay, that really needs to be made much more flexible. if we look at other countries, they have schemes which support so—called short hours working, where you could go back to work for some time but still have a top—up on that salary. now, that is really important because otherwise we will not have those businesses ready to climb out of this lockdown when the time comes. a word as well on that ppe that came from turkey on an raf flight. there we re from turkey on an raf flight. there were numerous political statement about the fact it was coming and now

it turns out it is not up to standard. what is the government saying about that, what it cost, why they didn't know it was up to standard before it left turkey, and what it will do generally about the levels of ppe available? the prime minister himself was talking about ppe and how he was exasperated about it yesterday. this is one of the areas where the government has been consistently criticised notjust by people working in the health system and social care, but also it is where perhaps some of the consensus between the political parties breaks down. it is particularly embarrassing at the situation in the turkey because, as you know, the promised arrival of ppe from turkey perhaps sooner than they ought to have done, there was an raf plane sitting on the tarmac waiting for it to be loaded up, and then the department of health has had to admit that it has been stuck in a

warehouse because it simply did not come up to standard. the government is saying they have to try and source ppe domestically and internationally and of course we might have different standards here than other countries may have. to some extent, that has meant they would not be picking up offers of ppe coming in from people who might be exporting it from countries with lower standard and it means some of the stuff coming into britain is not ready to be used to it's an embarrassing episode for the government but against the backdrop of political criticism and desperation to get the supplies, they are sourcing it from wherever they are sourcing it from wherever they can and finding out later whether it is up to scratch. thank you very much. the bank of england says it believes the uk is heading towards the deepest economic recession on record, because of the consequences of the pandemic. the bank says it expects growth to plummet by nearly a third while unemployment

could more than double. let's get more on that. with me is our business presenter ben thompson. and also garry young, deputy director of the national institute of economic and social research. good morning. first of all, the figures at the bank of england is talking about and put this in some context for us. good morning, anita. what we should be aware of is the bank of england is saying this is not a typical forecast, these are potential scenarios for how the economy could play out as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, what it thinks might be one of the ways the economy may be gets worse before it gets better. you may remember there was a lot of talk of a v shaped recovery which would mark a big fall and bounce back when all of us could get back to our normal lives but that does not seem to be quite the case. they are forecasting may be a prolonged downturn before things

start to get better. we look at some of the numbers, they say the first quarter of this year, the first three months, economic growth have fallen by nearly 3% but it's the second quarter, the one we are in right now which applies to april, may andjune, right now which applies to april, may and june, and for that they are forecasting a fall of about 25%, an unprecedented fall in economic growth and they say it could take a while for that to start to get better. it to be the end of next year before business is back up to speed and we are back in work and, crucially for consumers, when we feel a bit more confident about going out to spend money. let's not forget that many people right now are hunkering down at home as far as finances are concerned, concerned aboutjobs finances are concerned, concerned about jobs and where finances are concerned, concerned aboutjobs and where their income might come from and so even if business looks like it is getting back to some sort of normality, it could take quite a while before we get back to spending. garry, as we said, it is a scenario from the bank of england but is it a fair and

reasonable scenario in your opinion? it isa reasonable scenario in your opinion? it is a very fair scenario. but it's actually quite reassuring in some ways because the bank sees gdp in this scenario falling by 14% this year and rising by 15% next year. by the end of next year we are back to where we were before. we have this big hole of a loss of income amounting to around... but there are significant risks around this. they are not assuming there is a second wave, which is a good thing, but there could be a second wave of the pandemic in which case a lockdown would tap to be implanted again. that is one risk. the other is that the government is taking a hit on its balance sheet at the moment. the bank of england stressed test for commercial banks found they had ple nty of commercial banks found they had plenty of room to bear losses of about £80 billion lending to

businesses in next year or two but the reason the losses are not bigger is because the government is taking a lot of the risk onto itself. it is guaranteeing lending, guaranteeing jobs ina guaranteeing lending, guaranteeing jobs in a sense, through the furlough scheme. and i think the risk is at some stage of the government might get cold feet about these measures and might withdraw them prematurely, in which case it would be a bigger worry for the economy. even if the government does not get cold feet, there is a risk that the market does. i think it is important that the government sticks to its path and doesn't remove these measures prematurely. there are a lot of uncertainties, as garry was a saying, with the risk is that the uk economy does not recover as quickly as this particular bank of england scenarios suggest it might. talk to us in this scenario about what happens with unemployment, and more

broadly, public sector borrowing and what kind of impact that might have on the amount of money we all have. what the bank of england is trying to do is balance a whole load of conflicting demands. the mainjob of the bank of england is price stability, it wants to make sure inflation does not get out of control. there is that 2% target it tries to hit every month. expect that inflation will fall pretty significantly because we have seen the price of big things like oil falling significantly as well. inflation is less of a concern for the bank of england. that needs to look at is how it keeps money in the real economy, providing financing for businesses that need it. we have seen all sorts of government schemes backed by the bank of england in terms of providing liquidity which is money, credit, loans, financing for businesses just to get through the worst of this. but what they also to keep an eye on this just the overall state of the economy as far

asjobs are concerned. overall state of the economy as far as jobs are concerned. in this forecast, it suggests unemployment could more than double by the end of the air, rising to about 9%, currently around 4%. there is a concern about what pressure that puts on public finances —— end of the year. as far as universal credit is concerned. we know the chancellor has said there will be no cliff edge as far as thatjob retention bellowing scheme is concerned but nonetheless, that has to end at some point because it is costing the government a lot of money. what business now need to work out is how many business now need to work out is how ma ny staff business now need to work out is how many staff they can keep on in the longer term. do they need to resize their businesses, to put it in business speak? we have seen a lot of big and small organisations having to make tough decisions about what the future will look like for them, how many staff they need to do that and when they might expect to see a recovery. we have seen it in the airline industry, ba and virgin atla ntic the airline industry, ba and virgin atlantic having to lay off a lot of staff, and i would expect we will see this in many other organisations as well. was an implement might rise

significantly and then fall back, they say it could take a long time for things to get back to normal —— whilst unemployment might rise. and thatis whilst unemployment might rise. and that is to the point about consumer spending, we all feel a bit nervous and are less likely to put our hand in our pocket and go out and spend on big purchases. maybe we will rein ina bit on big purchases. maybe we will rein in a bit of day—to—day spending and that has eight ricochet effect around the economy which means businesses cannot get back to normal as perhaps they might have done had this been that the shaped recovery, the sharp fall and rebound that was initially forecast. —— v shaped recovery. unemployment is a concern, inflation is less of an issue but spending and borrowing will be a real concern for the bank of england now, balancing our conflicting demands but will taxes have to be raised later down the line to pay for some of this massive outgoing? that is an issue and what we don't yet have an answer for. and a lot of economists have been thinking very deeply about this and saying, whether in the uk or other economies

around the world, as they face recessions, they cannot get out of these recessions unless they can make their people feel safe and confident that they can go out to a shop and spend some money or begin to act in something approaching a normal way. where does the answer lie in all of that? we come back to tracking and tracing, testing, reassuring people that the government can quickly deal with another potential spike in the virus i guess? i think that's right but we have got to put health above the economy in some senses print we are hoping that a vaccine will be available in about a year's time and by then the economy should be able to recover, provided there is not too much scarring, the economists

possibly term, which turns into a long—term problem point of the worry is that businesses build up their networks and these things take time to build up. it's possible they will not be there when we go back. i think the best governments can do is testing and tracking as you said, all of that sort of thing to try to provide that reassurance. 0k, garry young and our business presenter ben thompson, you very much. the message to stay at home may be getting changed by the government, but is that leading you to think about planning your summer holiday here in the uk? if the lockdown rules allow it, it could be welcome news to the tourism industry, which has already taken a big hit. adam mcclean has been to blackpool to see how businesses there are coping. here in blackpool, the beaches are almost empty.

for the very first time, spring didn't come with a wave of visitors. for businesses like this bed and breakfast, the timing couldn't have been worse. you've refurbished, you've refreshed, you've redecorated, you've got your property ready for the coming season. and just when you're pushing the boundaries of your overdraft limit is when easter lands and ordinarily — and the weather we've had this easter — blackpool would have been absolutely chockablock. and that would have given us our first financial burst, if you will. for these businesses every day in season count. days lost in spring and summer will hit hardest later in the year. so we've come through the winter. if we don't come out of this until toward the end of the season — when we'll have not had any money coming in for a full season — and then we hit another winter, that's going to be so desperate. and i fear that many businesses won't survive. on a sunny day, blackpool's beaches would normally be full of visitors. today, there are just a few locals walking up and down the seafront. many of them depend on tourism

for their livelihoods. you've spent the last 20 years of your life trying to persuade people to come here, and now you've spent the last sort of six or seven weeks trying to persuade people not to come here. it's quite a change. about 50% of our gdp is tourism. so if even if you're not directly in tourism in blackpool, then, you know, you're either in the supply chain or you benefit from it in some way. so, yeah, it's a big hit on blackpool, but obviously everybody‘s suffering in these difficult times. at wartime blackpool today, munition—makers and other war workers on a brief holiday. blackpool was open for business during the second world war. it was a haven from a global crisis — with many here hoping our seaside towns can do the same again. it's about making people feel, you know, comfortable and safe coming to blackpool — that's where we've got to put all our energies at the moment and hope that we come... we ease out of this before the end of the season. that would be my

greatest hope, really. 0ur beaches will be there to be enjoyed long after this pandemic. those who've built livelihoods around them hope their businesses will be, too. adam mcclean, bbc news. france will learn later today whether its eight—week lockdown will be lifted on monday, as planned. pressure is growing for economic and social life to resume, with france registering a drop in growth of almost 6% for the first three months of this year. 0ur paris correspondent lucy williamson reports. hotels and factories may be deserted but food banks are getting busier. this centre, run by one of france's biggest charities, saw a 40% rise in subscriptions last week. coronavirus has meant finding new ways of operating and new kinds of people in the queue. this woman began coming here last month after the lockdown left her husband out of work.

they ate through their savings in weeks, she told me. france's biggest economic players have also been badly hit by coronavirus — tourism, construction, manufacturing. france's economy shrank by almost 6% in the first part of this year as the government brought in one of the strictest lockdowns in europe. we are all touched and the problem is that we had medically triggered artificial coma of all our economies and france is very good at that because france is totally centralised. later today, the government will set out how to lift those restrictions, dividing the country into red and green zones, with the rules tailored to each area. paris is likely to be a red zone. the virus is still circulating here and the hospitals are still under pressure. what exactly that means for residents and companies, no—one yet knows.

the government has suggested that some small tourist sites in green areas of the country could reopen from monday. but the french borders are still close, as are its hotels and restau ra nts. close, as are its hotels and restaurants. obviously, when you hear what italy has been a saint last week, they have been saying we are ready to welcome everybody for this summer. it is not the message france is sending so far. we definitely have the means to adapt but in the end it is going to be a psychological message of what the government will want to send to citizens. and tourists from abroad. shops and primary schools are preparing to reopen from monday and people should be able to travel freely within 100 kilometres of their homes. the new message after weeks of confinement, "don't stay at home" — a new mantra for the nation's economic health. lucy williamson, bbc news, paris. the chinese government says

international experts will not be allowed in to investigate the origins of the coronavirus until the pandemic is over. china is coming under increasing pressure to allow an independent inquiry. officials say the priority at the moment is still fighting the virus. at least eight people have been killed and thousands taken ill after a gas leak at a chemical plant in southern india. residents near the plant in andhra pradesh complained of a burning sensation in their eyes and breathing difficulties. eyewitnesses reported there were people lying on the streets. the gas is reported to have spread up to three miles from the plant. it is fast approaching half past nine. now it's time for a look at the weather with sarah keith—lucas. hello. there is some warm sunshine in store for many of us over the next couple of days but as the temperatures are set to build, we will also see some heavy showers and some thunderstorms. there is an area of high pressure in charge of our weatherjust

drifting off towards the east. we have a couple of weather fronts further west bringing a bit more cloud through the rest of today across parts of northern ireland, northern and western scotland, western wales and the far south—west of england. so, a few showers here. further east across scotland and for much of england, it should stay dry with temperatures between about 17 and 22 or 23 degrees out there today. but as those temperatures build, we are likely to see some heavy showers for south wales, through parts of the midlands, east anglia as well, into this evening and overnight. so, the odd rumble of thunder through the course of tonight but more cloud than there was last night so it will be milder, with temperatures first thing friday in double figures for many of us. friday, another mostly dry day but a bit more cloud compared to today and there will be a few showers continuing for parts of scotland, northern ireland and, later in the day, a few heavy ones further south across england and wales. bye bye.

hello, this is bbc news. the headlines... borisjohnson will review the coronavirus lockdown with his cabinet, having suggested some rules could be eased from monday. the bank of england warns that the uk is heading for its deepecst recession on record with economic output likely to fall by 14% this year, due to coronavirus. hundreds of thousands of surgical gowns, ordered from turkey last month, haven't been given to nhs workers because they don't meet british safety standards.

in the next few minutes, we'll get analysis of deaths from coronavirus by ethnicity and social background. and a new official portrait of dame vera lynn is unveiled to mark the 75th anniversary of ve day. the un is saying it is unfortunately a gloomy but not unexpected message on international tourism. international tourism is to plunge up international tourism is to plunge up to 80% because of coronavirus. tourism industries within various countries hoping domestically they will be able to salvage something but international tourism, says the un, to plunge up to 80% because of coronavirus. let's get all the sport now from mike bushell in the sports newsroom.

lots of conversation going on about football in various countries and what can happen, what should happen, whether it is safe to play games. absolutely, things are moving apace. while english premier league managers are hoping to get a first look today at the medical advice from doctors on how to restart the season here, all eyes will be on what's happening in germany. their top divisions will resume as early as next friday, albeit behind closed doors, with clubs now back in training. clubs are meeting today to finalise dates, with nine matches of the season to go. it'll be the first major european league to return. perhaps next friday there could be life football from europe on your tv —— live. take a german side to follow! progress being made across europe — barcelona's messi

and real madrid boss zidane were among the many players and coaches in spain being tested this week, so clubs there can return to training again for the first time in two months. it's expected they'll train for at least four weeks, before a possible restart of matches injune, in empty stadiums. and in italy, preparations are under way for the season to return on may 27th. players are training on their own this week with team training likey to resume in 11 days. the english premier league clubs will vote on monday on various proposals, including playing behind closed doors at neutral venues, but there's a warning from the mayor of greater manchester, that clubs shouldn't feel pressurised to return and finish the season in this way. we mustn't get whipped up into a kind of situation here where we're kind of talking ourselves into an early release and talking ourselves into bringing sport back more quickly than we should. it's got to be people's health and safety at the forefront of this argument. players have already spoken about how strange it will be, playing matches without fans. you'll remember last week

there was also a leaked recording heard by the bbc, highlighting fears that fans might not be able to go to a game in the english football league until next year. well, one way of helping players cope could be cardboard cut outs of fans, placed in their usual seats. this is happening! at german club borussia monchengladbach, 4,500 cardboard supporters are already in place, and 12,000 have been ordered. fans anywhere in the world can send a photo in and buya place in the ground. most of the funds have picked smiley faces, lacking the usual emotion and noise. —— most of the fans. very surreal and strange. we will wait and see what happens. very strange to see that cardboard cutouts in the stands, not the

atmosphere to footballers would want, iam atmosphere to footballers would want, i am sure. now, in the last few minutes, the office for national statistics released figures that show, for the first time, links between covid—19 deaths and socioeconomic status, qualifications, housing, self—reported health conditions and ethnicity. nick stripe is the head of health analysis at the office for national statistics. very good to have you with us. literally moments after you have published this data. tell us first of all what the headlines are in your findings. good morning. one of the key things we wanted to look at is whether there are significant differences between ethnic groups and risks of dying from covid—19 issues. up until now, we have not been able to do that because ethnicity is not captured on death registrations but we have not been able to link 90% of deaths in march and up to the 10th of april to previous census records, 13,000 of the deaths were covid related, it

allows us to look at broad ethnic groupings, white grouping, lack grouping, bangladeshi and pakistani grouping, bangladeshi and pakistani grouping, india grouping, chinese grouping, india grouping, chinese grouping, mixed under the —— black grouping. the risk is significantly higherfor some of grouping. the risk is significantly higher for some of the ethnic groupings compared to the wider ethnic grouping, headline fighting. we owe to know from previous work we have released and published, things like your age and gender and where you live, they are key things in terms of people's likelihood thus far of dying of covid related issues. we have got your probability of dying with covid is made up of two things, your probability of being infected in the first place and secondly your probability of dying once you have been infected. those two things are influenced by your personal circumstances to a

large degree. the first thing we did is we looked adjusting for age at what the difference was in terms of risk of dying by ethnic groups and that brought out some quite stark differences. just adjusting for age, we saw the black ethnic grouping was just over four we saw the black ethnic grouping was just overfour times more we saw the black ethnic grouping was just over four times more likely to die of covid related issues than the white group. the duchy and pakistani grouping was three and a half times more likely, indian grouping, 2.5 times more likely. —— the bangladeshi and pakistani grouping. this is really interesting and important data because we have been talking for a while now, interviewing various doctors and experts who have been examining this both in the uk and elsewhere in the world, the link, the reported and suspected link, between ethnic background and higher rates of

infection with covid—19 and deaths from covid—19. you are saying, in your study, when you factor in other issues like age, socioeconomic status, people who are black are four times more likely to be infected or die from covid—19, from a bangladeshi background, three times more likely, indian, two times more likely? halfway there. so, those figures are just when we adjust for age. but we know other circumstances matter. we want to try and introduce the other circumstances which we can do because we have geographical location from the death certificate and death registration so we know for example big cities like london, birmingham, manchester, they have been more affected. we know from figures released last friday that whether you are in and urban or rural area matters, the area social

deprivation matters. we have showed that on friday. we needed to adjust for all of those factors as well. geography is key and other socioeconomic factors we can get data from the census records that link to the death certificate. things like people's qualifications, housing circumstances, what type of jobs or occupations they had, and self—reported health. jobs or occupations they had, and self-reported health. a lot of data here, but the broad headline, the important headline, you have been able to show some ethnic groups have able to show some ethnic groups have a higher risk of covid—19 related death compared with those of white ethnicity, that is the big story from all of this, is that right? yes, but when we adjust for all the other things, the rates i told you earlier come down, so a lot of the difference can be explained by the geographical and socioeconomic factors, and what we are left with when we have adjusted for that using

models is the black ethnic group is about 90% or1.9 models is the black ethnic group is about 90% or 1.9 times more likely to die from covid related issues, indian females are about 40% more likely, mail is about 30% more likely. 0nce likely, mail is about 30% more likely. once we have adjusted for all of the factors other factors we would like to introduce and develop the model further. the risk of being infected, for example, may be affected by the type of occupation you work in or the type of occupation members of your household work in and it could be the case ethnic groups are more likely to be on public facing occupations. another thing we would like to look at as people with underlying health issues. it may be the case certain ethnic groupings at certain ages are more likely to have perhaps heart disease, diabetes, obesity, asthma. we would like to see how much of the

difference we have left might be explained by some of the other factors. but the headline findings arejust under twice factors. but the headline findings are just under twice as likely for the black group and about 70% more likely for the bangladeshi pakistani group and 30—40% more likely for the indian group compared to the white group. a lot of data to take on board. really interesting findings. people can go to the 0ns website and twitter account to find out more. nick stripe, from the office for national statistics. reaction to all of that. dr bharat pankhania is an expert in communicable diseases at the university of exeter. good to have you with us. does what nick stripe from the 0ns been saying, does that back up what you have suspected, believed, in relation to covid—19 deaths and ethnic background? yes, thank you for inviting me. this is really good work by the 0ns and we are very

grateful to them for doing this so quickly. now that this great big red flag has been raised, that the ethnic minorities, black, asian and minority ethnic people, they have an added risk, we must do something about it immediately. i appreciate by the time you have cleaned up the data for location, geography, other things, the risk came down quite a bit. nevertheless, we have identified they are at added risk. we have to do something about it. in other words... can i come to that in just a moment, what we do about it, but can you firm up to any degree what nick stripe was suggesting might be the reasons for this differential between people of white ethnicity and people from other ethnicity and people from other ethnic backgrounds? is it to do with a predisposition to have certain health conditions? is it to do with type of employment? what do you think is the reason? i think it is a combination of all of that, without

a doubt. there is geography, if you live in a deprived place, less likely to be able to sit at home and do your work by zoom. whereas you have to be a taxi driver, train driver, work in a crowded place, more chance of getting infected. 0n top of that, the asians and others carry an added risk which is diabetes, blood pressure, heart disease. all of those things put together, we identify they are probably at a slightly extra risk. coming back to the very important point you were moving on to, what do you think should be done about this? what measures can be introduced to try to get rid of the differential so that people from these ethnic backgrounds have as much of a chance of fighting this disease is someone of fighting this disease is someone of white ethnicity? we have got to... now we know, we can say, look,

we need to reduce your face—to—face consultations, and where they are absolutely necessary, we are going to give you enhanced personal protective equipment to protect yourselves. and we are also going to do more work on finding out, is at the diabetes? heart disease? something else? in the first instance, we must pull them out of front line and deploy them with telephone consultations, or extra ppe. what would you expect the government to do and what would you expect them to do practically and quickly, presumably? yes, indeed. now this information is available and it is clearly indicating there is an extra risk, we have got to act immediately. meaning today. we have identified a subgroup and that subgroup would also include european white people who fall into that category of added risk because they

have underlying health conditions, pull them out of the front nine, stopped and seen excessive number of face—to—face consultations, if there may be added ppe, additional personal protective equipment —— front line. thank you very much for yourtime, dr front line. thank you very much for your time, dr bharat pankhania. expert in communicable diseases at the university of exeter. thank you. the headlines on bbc news... borisjohnson will review the coronavirus lockdown with his cabinet, having suggested some rules could be eased from monday. the bank of england warns that the uk is heading for its deepecst recession on record with economic output likely to fall by 14% this year due to coronavirus. hundreds of thousands of surgical gowns, ordered from turkey last month, haven't been given to nhs workers because they don't meet british safety standards. millions of workers have been furloughed across the country since the government's

lockdown came into force. a new scheme has now been launched to get people stuck at home working again by connecting them with voluntary organisations. the platform furlonteer.com works by matching volunteers with charities according to the skills they are looking for. so far, more than 2,500 people have already signed up. we can speak now to sam tasker—grindley who is one of the founders of furlonteer.com. and also lucy rickett, one of the volunteers who has signed up to the scheme. thank you for your time this morning. first of all, how did this idea come to you and how did you go about turning it from an idea into something tangible, sam? good morning. thank you for having us. i was furloughed myself on the 1st of april and while it was great to have the freedom of time at first, i missed my routine and my mission and purpose for getting up every morning

andi purpose for getting up every morning and ifigured purpose for getting up every morning and i figured by purpose for getting up every morning and ifigured by the end of this, potentially up to 9 million people that could be furloughed and i know a lot will be feeling the same. i wa nted a lot will be feeling the same. i wanted to turn what could have been quite a negative experience into a positive one and put my hand up to help and contribute to society and a different way. we figured on the one hand we have these amazing furloughed workers with a variety of amazing skills and background sound on the other side we have got charities and good causes who may have had to furloughed the whole of the staff as well or perhaps they need to reach their audience in another way because they can no longer do fundraising events so the basic idea was to put one together with the other. how does it work in practice, matching up furloughed workers and the skill sets with a particular charity? initially, it was one or two of us with an idea and when we first reach out to get volu nteers and when we first reach out to get volunteers to signed up, all of them agreed to help also to grow

furlonteer. com. agreed to help also to grow furlonteer.com. we were able... quite a manual process. we have the charities who register and on the other side, the furloughed people. based on time commitment they have, what sort of skills they have got and we take into account preference for a charity as well and we do the matching, almost like a dating site, put one in touch with the other. let's talk to lucy now. tell us how you got involved and which charity you got involved and which charity you have been matched up with.” came across furlonteer.com on facebook. i had that feeling of i have got friends doing amazing stuff for the nhs and i was feeling really helpless at this unusual time and there are only a certain number of sourdough bread you can attempt to make and it was an opportunity to try something new and give the routine and purpose back again. i

have been working with an initiative called early bird run crew and it is in harrogate and it is a physical meet up to get people running early in the morning and it is part of the calm initiative, campaign against living miserably and sport is normally an amazing way to bring people together and communities together. i have been trying to help them develop digitally to try and make communities feel like they can still be connected but in a slightly different way at a time when we all feel so disconnected. what difference has to made to you, lucy, in how you feel on a daily basis? looking at before and after you got involved, what difference has it made? so amazing. given me my enthusiasm back and given me that sense of routine again and i feel like i have a bit of a purpose back in my life and it is making me quite

excited for every day and something so new. i would never get the opportunity to do this and to work with... i opportunity to do this and to work with... lam opportunity to do this and to work with... i am in opportunity to do this and to work with... lam in pool at opportunity to do this and to work with... i am in pool at the moment. i would never normally work with a charity in harrogate. we talk about things, positive things, that might come out of this awfulness and this could be something very much that fits into that category, people who have not perhaps worked with a charity before, getting involved with that sector. are there any skills, if you were to do a promotion right now, any particular skills people might have you are looking for that you know charities need right now that you have not quite found? remind us how people can get involved. i think the biggest need for skills is digital skills. we have had a lot of people with social media backgrounds, website development. website development is key. we are still

crying out for more people with those sorts of software development skills. charities need their digital footprint to be better, they are needing to engage with their audience in a different way. those skills are particularly important. but we are seeing a full range of people. we are matching analysts, accountants, admin staff, anything. the best way to reach out, we would love to have some more charities we can support as well, the best way to reach out as find us on furlonteer.com or on social media. what words of encouragement would you have for anyone thinking of maybe doing something like this or looking for something to do?” maybe doing something like this or looking for something to do? i would just say it is at times like this when we can all come together to do some good work possible and it is such a unique opportunity for you and the charities and you don't want to look back at your time when you we re to look back at your time when you were furloughed and think what you could have done. you may as well turn this opportunity into a

positive and think, actually, that is what i did do. get involved. it takes you a couple of seconds to sign. and it can do a lot of good in the long run. lucy, good luck with your work, congratulations on getting this launched and good luck as you develop this project, sam. thank you both very much. she was the wartime sweetheart whose song we'll meet again has become a message of hope during lockdown. today, a new official portrait of dame vera lynn has been unveiled to mark the 75th anniversary of ve day. the oil painting is called the enduring sweetheart and is by the artist dan llywelyn hall. it has been commissioned to raise funds for the dame vera lynn children's charity. tomorrow marks 75 years since ve day, the day victory in europe was secured.

john maguire has been to meet 97—year—old audrey gerrans who worked in munitions factories and married her sweetheart, joe, a soldier, during the war. "darling, please be careful of those flying bombs. i'm so worried about you. everything is ok with me, dear, and there is nothing i want you to send me...unless you could get mum to wrap you up in a neat parcel, label it with utmost care and send it to me, urgent." "my dearestjoe, i heard one of your songs on the radio at lunchtime. i remember when you used to sing it to me and sometimes play it on the gramophone at home and we'd dance together, darling. i would love to be dancing with you just now. " the words of lovestruck newlyweds, married in 1944 and kept apart by conflict. but through more than 700 letters, joe and audrey gerrans were never far from each other‘s thoughts. and i wrote everything in those letters. i mean, people would say, "what the hell do you write

about every day?" because some of them were 17 and 18 pages long! and joe used to say it was as if i was in the next room, he never, ever thought he was apart from me. joe was a talented footballer who once met the king while playing for barnet. during the war, he served with the royal medical army corps while his young wife worked in a munitions factory. when you say "munitions", it makes you feel you were brave. we made 3.7, and they were the big guns on the coast, you know. yep. "big bertha", we called our one that was on our kent coast. by all accounts, if they got scratched at all, they wouldn't fire. every time, i was night work, i did everybody's hair for them. i washed it and rolled it up when i went in, and i combed it out before they went home. and of course, the supervisor

couldn't grumble because she was the first one to have hers done. audrey was next tasked with helping to manufacture aircraft fuel tanks, just one of the two women in the factory small enough to crawl into the tank and, by torchlight, finish off its interior. and then they pulled us out by our feet. withjoe now in northern germany, news came through on the radio at home that hitler was dead and the war, in europe at least, was over. people were dancing in the street, so we joined them. all the lights were on. you know. and fairy lights and everything! i thought that was the end of the war, and so did everybody else. joe died in 1997 — their romance born in war had lasted more than half a century. "now i'm happy, dearwife, that our love will remain as strong as yesterday."

"i hope you're not worrying about me too much, sweetheart, for you know i will be all right." john maguire, bbc news. a reminder of the top stories this morning. borisjohnson a reminder of the top stories this morning. boris johnson is a reminder of the top stories this morning. borisjohnson is holding a review of the coronavirus lockdown with the cabinet this morning with the suggestion some rules may be eased from next monday but ministers today still urging caution and telling people not to expect massive changes immediately. the bank of england sang today the uk is heading for its deepest recession on record —— saying today. now it's time for a look at the weather with sarah keith—lucas. a chilly start to a day earlier on but warming up now and that will be the theme of the next few days. temperatures on the rise. warm sunny weather around. also a few showers. some of the showers could be quite

heavy and potentially thundery. high pressure still in charge. drifting off to the east allowing a couple of weather fronts to affect western parts of the uk at times today and tomorrow. more cloud in northern ireland, western scotland, western fringes of wales and south—west of england. the odd shower here. further east, england, wales and scotland, keeping the blue sky. temperatures and warmer spots up to 22, 23 in the south—east. typically 17-20. as 22, 23 in the south—east. typically 17—20. as temperatures built, heavy showers developed for south wales, parts of the midlands, east anglia, old rumble of thunder this evening and tonight. temperature staying on the mild side. frost free to friday and friday will be milder. quite a bit of cloud. southern and eastern parts staying largely sunny. more showers for parts of scotland, northern ireland and later on wales in the south—west of england, some drifting east. temperatures tomorrow, little bit warmer than

today, 23, possibly 24. typically, high teens, low 20s. that weekend? a real change in the weather, gradually turning colder. the colder trend starts in northern scotland, quite an active cold front, bringing rain, moving in from the north. after a largely dry start to saturday, showers and thunderstorms once again building in the afternoon across the midlands, south wales, but in warmer spots, up to 24,25 across the midlands, south wales, but in warmer spots, up to 24, 25 in the south—east. contrast that with single figures in the north of scotland. colder air single figures in the north of scotland. colderairsinking single figures in the north of scotland. colder air sinking south across all of the uk over saturday into sunday, cold northerly wind arrows on the map, different feeling day on sunday, when showers in the south initially, also some snow flurries to lower levels in scotland. 10 degrees colder than saturday for many on sunday with

temperature 6—16d. goodbye.

this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. the bank of england warns that the uk is heading for its deepecst recession on record, with economic output likely to fall by 14% this year due to coronavirus. the government says it's doing all it can. when we do come to the other side of this virus, we have a good opportunity for our economy to recover as quickly as possible. boris johnson reviews the coronavirus lockdown with his cabinet, having suggested some rules could be eased from monday. analysis of deaths from coronavirus in the uk reveals that the risk of dying from covid—19 among some ethnic groups is significantly higher.