bringing devastation tojobs and incomes — the bank of england warns the coronavirus pandemic will push the uk towards its deepest recession on record. that would be the biggest economic slump in 300 years, with the bank warning that the unemployment rate could more than double. government and the bank of england have put in place a very big package of measures, and we will go on utterly focused on that and doing the things that we need to do to support the people of the country.

we'll be analysing the bank of england's grim forecast. also this lunchtime: the cabinet meets to discuss easing the lockdown — but we'll have to wait until sunday to find out how the prime minister intends to do it. no easing of the lockdown in scotland — the first minister says to do so would be "very, very risky indeed". i will not be pressured into lifting restrictions prematurely, before i can be as certain as i can be that we will not be risking a resurgence of infection rates. at least eight people die, and thousands hospitalised, after a gas leak at a chemical plant in southern india. protecting nothing — the shipment of 400,000 ppe gowns from turkey, which was flown here by the raf, is impounded in a warehouse after failing uk standards. not the celebration they'd planned — but, under lockdown, britain prepares to mark tomorrow's 75th anniversary of ve day. and in the sport, there will be live

football to watch again from as early as next friday, as the german bundesliga has given the go—ahead to resume, albeit behind closed doors. good afternoon and eelcome to the bbc news at one. the bank of england is warning that the coronavirus pandemic will push the uk economy into its deepest recession on record. unemployment could more than double, and analysts say the economy will shrink 14% this year — even if the lockdown is relaxed injune. that's the sharpest annual contraction for 300 years. but there is some cause for hope — the bank says the uk economy will bounce back. 0ur economics correspondent andy verity

reports. unsold cars lined up at a former military airfield in 0xfordshire, just one image from what is now expected to be the biggest recession since 1706. since the shutdown began over six weeks ago, the evidence suggests household spending is down 30%, company sales are down 45% and business investment has halved. the bank of england because my working assumption is that the economy will shrink in the first—half of this year by 30%. shrink in the first—half of this year by 3096. what it really means is obviously the very sharp sort of downturn we have had, the situation we have been in since march, and the restrictions that are in place which affect economic activity severely. the interesting question then is of course, what is the path from here on what is going to look like? it is really only until next summer thereafter that activity comes fully

back. waiting for a recovery next year may be too late for companies that only have enough cash to last weeks not months. in bristol's empty streets a successful small business, a language school founded 45 years ago employ more than 60 staff, is trying to do its work online. there is crippling uncertainty. most of its business is done in the summer teaching foreign students english before they go to college. this year its owner has no idea if they will come 01’ its owner has no idea if they will come or not. as you can imagine, we are entirely empty, arm buildings are entirely empty, arm buildings are closed up. we are trying to teach online to fulfil contractual commitments. but once those are done we are unlikely to generate very much income and certainly not enough income to keep staff going or keep the buildings open. the bank of england's modelling assumes unemployment will jump to england's modelling assumes unemployment willjump to 9% in spite of government support for businesses, but will come right down again as the economy recovers and grows by 50%. again as the economy recovers and grows by 5096. -- 1596. again as the economy recovers and grows by 5096. --1596. is again as the economy recovers and grows by 5096. -- 1596. is that

realistic? there are quite a few reasons why that may not pan out. we don't have to have social distancing measures for some time and of course it is the uncertainty referred to in your news report. so i think the bank is being very optimistic in terms of how quickly the economy will rebound. the bank of england is at pains to emphasise it can't forecast the economy right now, there is too much uncertainty. but it can be much surer of predicting the biggest recession on record than it can of predicting an extraordinarily rapid recovery. andy verity, bbc news. 0ur economics editor faisal islam is here. it's grim but a forecast that many people already suspected? yes, you do have to step back. it is simply extraordinary to see a chart like this, never seen in the 300 here history of the entire institution. it goes down so sharply. perhaps thatis it goes down so sharply. perhaps that is not surprising given that

swathes of the economy have been shut down. that is a very sharp fall. but a sharp rebound too. we know the downturn has mostly happened already. that is in some of the data they are looking at. it is a bit more hopeful, this sharp rebound, and it depends notjust on economics, it depends on epidemiology, it depends on politics and the response. the interesting thing is despite this economic damage you are not getting a suggestion from the bank of england or economists to lift the lockdown immediately, because actually that second wave of the pandemic, as deadly as it would be, would also be the sort of thing that would interrupt the rebound of the government hopes for. thank you. the prime minister has discussed the coronavirus lockdown with his cabinet today. borisjohnson will set out his plans at 7pm on sunday — but he's already signalled that some restrictions could be eased next week, with speculation that the government's "stay at home" message is set to be modified. while it's likely more outdoor activities will be permitted,

most of the current lockdown measures are expected to remain in place. wales, northern ireland and scotland have their own powers to lift or keep restrictions. and in the last half hour, scotland first minister nicola sturgeon has said that any easing of lockdown restrictions there would be "very, very risky". here's our political correspondent iain watson. is the tide turning on the lockdown? six weeks in and the government is finding it is easier to impose restrictions than to lift them. there has been strong compliance with the measures and some people are wary about going back to work while the virus remains active. when will you use the lockdown measures? although the lockdown in england has been formally reviewed in england today, we have to wait until sunday for the prime minister to set out the direction of travel. this is a message from the government... but one familiar feature of the lockdown will change this weekend. the government will modify its

stay—at—home slogan. but ministers are stressing that any move to lift the lockdown will be gradual. we urge caution. the safest thing to do at the moment with this virus and the way spreads is whenever you can, stay at home. yes, get that daily exercise and if you can't work from home and can work in safe circumstances, the guidelines out there for that very purpose. we have to continue in the process. we are doing everything we can to ensure people's safety. the prime minister told the house of commons that could be changes to the restrictions in england from monday. 0ne be changes to the restrictions in england from monday. one of the most likely alterations is to expand the range of actor activities that are allowed. so instead of simply exercising you might be able to lounge around in the sunshine. but the key message from the government is this. keep your distance, stay two metres apart, otherwise your new found freedom could be short lived. the devolved governments in scotland, wales and northern ireland

can decide for themselves the pace at which the lockdown is lifted, and the scottish first minister is concerned the prime minister might not be cautious enough. concerned the prime minister might not be cautious enoughlj concerned the prime minister might not be cautious enough. i hope you understand, and i hope you agree, that i must makejudgments informed by the evidence that i write and save for scotland. i would not be pressured into lifting restrictions prematurely before i am certain as i can be that we will not be risking a resurgence of infection rates. moving away from the lockdown, even gradually, brings big logistical challenges. how to ensure social distancing on public transport while running of services to get people to back —— back to work. and making workplaces safer. labour says the government has more work to do to convince people to return. guidelines for different workplaces, they really need to be watertight, clear well understood. and there needs to be a process for dealing with any problems. if workers don't

have confidence they will be safe at work and consumers don't have confidence, that is really going to hold back our recovery. so in england, one small step in lifting the lockdown could happen within days. but if there is any leap in infections, we could still be facing robust restrictions for months to come. in a moment we'll speak to our scotland correspondent james shaw. but first, iain watson is in westminsterfor us. it's unlikely we will see any dramatic announcement on sunday? simon, at seven o'clock on sunday evening the prime minister will give his address to the nation. what downing street are saying is don't expect something big bang in a lifting of the restrictions. that doesn't mean the statement will be a damn script. we think there will be some easing of the restrictions but what we need to see is a detailed road map. for example, he could tell us road map. for example, he could tell us the ways in which schools in england could be reopened, perhaps a phased way, perhaps knowlet

at once. that's where not all at once. what the government tends to do is a bit like turning on a tap. they will have a few little drips at first, some changes to restrictions, then they will take another look at the infection rate. if the infections are flooding out, either they turn this off again or restricted completely. they can reimpose some of the restrictions they are intending to lift. i think we will see a very phased approach. downing street have said they will be careful and cautious, although some of the devolved administrations perhaps think they are not been cautious enough. thank you. james shaw is in glasgow. no real change for now in scotland? i think that is right. what we appear to be seeing is the first divergence between the different nations of the united kingdom in terms of how to come out of the lockdown. what nicola sturgeon, the first minister has said in that briefing, which is still continuing, is that she doesn't see figures which convince her that it is safe

to come out of lockdown immediately. she has said the weekly death rate, the numberof she has said the weekly death rate, the number of deaths per week, has reduced recently. there has been the first drop in the weekly deaths that we have seen during the early stages of the pandemic. 0therfigures we have seen during the early stages of the pandemic. 0ther figures are encouraging. but if that is not enough for her to be able to easily lockdown. she did say that she had heard that borisjohnson lockdown. she did say that she had heard that boris johnson was trying to organise a telephone conference with the leaders of all the devolved administrations later today. she welcomed that because she said it was important that there was a four nations approach, that everyone should agree that there should be consensus should agree that there should be consensus in terms of how the different parts of the united kingdom could come out of lockdown. but she reserved to herself the right to take a different path. she said she would not be pressured into coming out early and that is a decision which she will review next week. she has to do

it legally within three weeks. she said she will do it next week. one small concession she made was that she said she felt it could be possible for people to exercise, leave the house to exercise, more than once a day. but apart from that, it appears as though the scottish government's approach is looking at the moment significantly approach is looking at the moment significa ntly different from approach is looking at the moment significantly different from that of the uk government. james shaw and iain watson, thank you both. people from black backgrounds in england and wales are nearly twice as likely to die from coronavirus than people from white backgrounds — that's according to new research by the office for national statistics. it found that people from all other ethnic minorities, except women with chinese ethnicity, were also more likely to die from covid—19, compared with people from white backgrounds. our community affairs correspondent rianna croxford is here. this raises many questions. we have asked them over the months of this pandemic but we don't seem to have many answers? definitely. the

ons study today is really comprehensive. what they have tried to do is make it as even a playing field as possible by accounting for sex, geography, or conditions. they split those factors and said if we do this are people from ethnic minority backgrounds are still more likely to die than white people in england and wales ? die than white people in england and wales? the answer they have come up with is yes. for instance, black men and women are nearly twice as likely to die from coronavirus than white counterparts. it is a similar trend we see from pakistani and bangladeshi backgrounds, where it is nearly 1.5 times more likely. the patterns we see reflected for women in those backgrounds. it includes both community deaths as well as hospital deaths. and also, it is the most detailed breakdown we have seen of ethnicity so far. but we need to keepin of ethnicity so far. but we need to keep in mind there are limits to this data. it is based on the

2011 census, which is nearly ten years old. secondly, death certificates. they don't record ethnicity in england and wales, so there isn't an accurate picture. also, it doesn't account for reputations. we know people from ethnic minority background is more likely to work in industry and health. there are no a nswe rs industry and health. there are no answers here. it isjust adding industry and health. there are no answers here. it is just adding two weeks and weeks of growing data we have seen. the 0ns have suggested socioeconomic factors are more significant, but they have also admitted that is not the clear picture. the government review is currently under way and findings are likely out by the end of may. hopefully there will be some answers by then. rhianna, thank you. our top story this lunchtime: bringing devastation tojobs and incomes — the bank of england warns the coronavirus pandemic will push the uk towards its deepest recession on record. and coming up... stranded 5,000 miles from home? not a problem for one intrepid traveller. coming up on bbc news, the top german teams step up for training ahead of the restart

of the bundesliga season next friday, with nine games each still to play, albeit in empty stadiums. a massive gas leak at a chemical plant in eastern india has killed at least 13 people, with thousands more being taken taken ill. residents near the plant in visakhapatnam in the state of andhra pradesh complained of a burning sensation in their eyes and breathing difficulties. the gas is reported to have spread up to two miles from the plant, with owners saying they're investigating what caused the leak. there are some distressing images in this report fom our india correspondent yogita limaye. sirens woken up by toxic gas in the air. people stumbled out onto the streets in panic. some waited for help to arrive, some rushed theh seriously ill to hospital any way

they could. a team responded within ten minutes. then they saw this smoke around and they were able to quickly ascertain what is the details. with the help of the loudspeaker, which is fitted on the vehicle, they started announcing and asking the people to come out and move out of this location. among those affected, children. more than 1,000 families live near the factory where the leak occurred in the dead of the night. hundreds are in hospital, some in critical condition. a local resident said she brought three children to the hospital but one girldied on three children to the hospital but one girl died on the way. hundreds are still being treated, some in critical condition. the gas they've inhaled, styrene. it causes nausea, headache and dizziness. but severe exposure

can even lead to coma. rescue personnel went door to door looking for anyone who had fallen unconscious at home. authorities also work to contain the leak. as of now, things are under control. i would say the leakage situation is much better now in the sense the silo that was leaking is now down to minimaland silo that was leaking is now down to minimal and there is hardly any leakage left. but as i say that, i also underlined we will be there until that leakage is completely plugged. south korea's lg chem says it's looking into how the leak occurred. its factory was just opening up after the lockdown for the coronavirus crisis. the immediate effect of the gas, clearly visible. the long—term impact, still to be assessed. yogita limaye, bbc news, mumbai. mobile operator 02 and broadband giant virgin media are to merge, creating one of the uk's largest entertainment and telecoms firms

and a major rival to bt. our technology correspondent rory cellan—jones is in west london. is this good news for customers? the two companies are claiming it is, because there will be a second powerhouse providing competition for bt and they say that can only be good for customers overall and they have been investing a lot of money. let's look at the figures and how they will compare post—the merger. virgin, with its many broadband customers and 02 with all of those mobile customers, they have about 29 million over all. that compares with the slightly bigger bt group. bt, phone lines, broadband customers, it has ee, and plus net, a big broadband player. 0verall, they have

32 million. quite a fight shaping up. will it be good for customers? the consumer group is not convinced because it is taking another player out of the market. it is pointing out of the market. it is pointing out neither of the firms has the best reputation for customer service. they want the competition regulator to have a close look at this. it looks likely to improve because bt was allowed to buy ee a few years back but they will be looking at their investment plans in particular. they will have to spend a lot of money rolling out 5g and fibre broadband to every home, so they will be under the regulator's spotlight for years to come. rory cellan—jones, thank you very much. it's emerged that a shipment of surgical gowns from turkey has not been given to front line nhs staff, because it failed british safety standards. the cargo, which was flown into the country by the raf, was delayed several times. the turkish company which supplied the consignmen says it hasn't received any complaint about the goods.

0ur health correspondent lauren moss is here what is going on? a few weeks ago at one of the daily briefings that we we re one of the daily briefings that we were told about the shipment of ppe coming in from turkey. it was delayed a few times but arrived on the 22nd of april. a whitehall source told us around 200,000 of the gowns did not pass safety standards and cannot be used. all safety equivalent has to go through checks to make sure it is suitable and most importantly, will protect the people that are wearing it. for the medical gowns we are talking about, they need to be made of the right material, fluid repellent, marked a sterile and be of the correct length. there is a whole length of bullet points they have to meet and it is not clear which of the standards they apparently have not met. the worldwide scramble to get ppe has been one of the major challenges in this pandemic on the issues are not just challenges in this pandemic on the issues are notjust about challenges in this pandemic on the issues are not just about the quality of the ppe, it is also about the quantity. the department of health has had more than a billion

items, including gowns, gloves and eye protection have been distributed across all settings since the start of the pandemic. to put these 200,000 gowns into context, we were told one nhs trust in lincoln which has four hospitals was using 1500 gallons a day. —— gowns. a spokesman for the turkish company that supplied this consignment said they have had no contact with officials from this country and said the gowns are made of the certified materials and made in certified factories. it is not clear if the government will try to get any kind of refund on these gowns. the coronavirus contact tracing app being trialed on the isle of wight has gone live to the general public there today. the mobile phone app anonymously warns users if they have been near to another person with the app who reports having covid—19 symptoms. much hope is being placed in the technology's ability to help bring the country out of lockdown,

but island residents have some mixed feelings towards it, as duncan kennedy reports. from the moment you leave the ferry, pass through the towns and countryside that make up the isle of wight, you can see why it self—contained cross—section of life makes it the ideal place to test the nhs covid—19 app. and derek sandy is one of the first members of the general public to download it. derek isa general public to download it. derek is a singer by profession, but has also become a cultural ambassador for the island. he says it takes just a few seconds to put the app onto your smartphone and that it will be vital in tracing the virus across the community. it is really, really important for everyone who has access, you know, to download the app. again, it could save your life, your father's life, the app. again, it could save your life, yourfather‘s life, your brother, your sister, your mother's

lie. the new app is being offered to the 80,000 households on the island from today. to collect random identities from nearby app users and the time and distance they are from each other. if one of those is feeling ill they upload their symptoms and data to the nhs server. the data is analysed and any one of those people at risk is sent a message advising them to self—isolate. trisha and graham are neighbours. both have now downloaded the app and intend to use it. what have you got to lose? you carry your phone around with you 26 hours a day, most people anyway. so it takes three orfour day, most people anyway. so it takes three or four seconds to download it. what is the problem with that? it looks good, it is simple to download. if it prevents deaths, then download it and use it and use then download it and use it and use the isle of wight as a testing ground. the release of this app todayis ground. the release of this app today is all about testing the

technology, does it work? can it log the smartphones of tens of thousands of users? crucially, can it trace them across entire communities? there is still concerns about data protection for users. today, a cross— party protection for users. today, a cross—party group of mps and peers said the public must be satisfied their privacy is guaranteed. people will not sign up to this app unless they are confident that their data is being protected and that confidence can be given if parliament passes a new law to actually say what is going to be the purpose of this data gathering? the island is a test—bed for a new app by linking smartphones to a digital handshake. the government hopes it will be a key part of a programme of measures against covid—19. duncan kennedy, bbc news, on the isle of wight. on may 8, 1945 the british public took to the streets to celebrate victory in europe day, with songs and celebrations across the country after six long, hard years of war. tomorrow is the 75th anniversary.

but with the country in lockdown, celebrations will look very different from those planned. daniel relph looks now at the efforts being made to ensure this important anniversary is still marked. this is going to be roast beef and yorkshire pudding. forget the pomp and pageantry, celebration in lockdown is more home—made. but this garden, plans for a socially distance party are under way. in this neighbourhood, ve day will be personal and special. instead of being subjected to a celebration, you are part of it, you are creating it, it is your celebration. i think it, it is your celebration. i think it will be meaningful, yes. it is the symbolism of celebrating something that brought to an end at time of difficulty and strife. it has got to be a good thing at this particular time. the aim had been to recreate the joy and optimism

of 75 yea rs recreate the joy and optimism of 75 years ago. lockdown has prevented that and disappointed veterans. on ve day, i, along with many others, will be watching the proceedings on television. we should never forget ve day and we should never forget the sacrifice of all those people, those millions and millions of people who gave their lives so we could live in freedom. at this hour, when the dreadful shadow of war. like her father when the dreadful shadow of war. like herfather in 1945, tomorrow night the queen will address the nation. my moment of formality in a day without that central, national event. it is too soon to say, but i hope it is a time when we reinvented what pageantry, hope it is a time when we reinvented what pagea ntry, what hope it is a time when we reinvented what pageantry, what remembrance and what pageantry, what remembrance and what commemoration would be. took it away from the big palaces and churches and brought it back into ourfamilies, homes

churches and brought it back into our families, homes and churches and brought it back into ourfamilies, homes and communities. across the country, streets are being prepared for a local celebration, dressed for the occasion. #we occasion. # we will meet again. but for some, rehearsals for the singalong have been confined to a garden in bromley. 97—year—old iris is the oldest member of the rock choir. she has been using lockdown to practice online with the choir leader, michael. it is all very sad, but we could all keep singing together. ve day celebrations in 2020, perhaps, in themselves, something for the history books. daniela relph, bbc news. with no flights and the world in lockdown, getting home to the uk seemed an impossible mission for lee brook, who was stranded in the caribbean after working in antigua. he's just got back, after a very unconventional journey. lucy vladev takes up the story. 22 days aboard a boat in a bid to get home.

lee brook has only sailed once before. this is how we do it. life on deck! but when lockdown hit antigua and tourists couldn't get much information about flights, lee was offered a place on a 12—man racing boat called telefonica black. the airport closed. a lot of people couldn't afford the flights. and, eh, so it then turned into a, right, how are we getting out of here, kind of situation. i felt really lucky to be part of the crew and be accepted. the 3,000—mile journey west to east across the atlantic is one of the most challenging. there were moments of quiet calm for the crew. day number five! but they also saw nine—metre waves and had to struggle on n with ripped sails. we were hanging on to the wheel, trying to control the boat, and then one of the lines, the ropes, the lazy sheet, it forked, tightened and hit me

straight across the face. and, erm, bloodied my nose, it actually knocked me straight off the helm onto the deck. fortunately, the skipper is lance shepherd, a clipper round—the—world yacht racer and professional trainer for sailors, which came in handy when faced with a difficult decision. we had to get the boat back into european waters by the ist of may, because of insurance restrictions with the hurricane season. and the clients that we had booked to fly out to antigua to sail back with us, couldn't get out because of the cancellation of flights, so we put a shout out for people. every day was a teaching day, all about sail trim, sail handling and everything else, and developed the crew all the way across. by the time we got the bad weather, they were well shaped into quite a formidable crew, to be honest. and all that sea water has given lee a taste for a new life. i think it's created a sailing monster out of me, because i want to become a sailor now because of it!

i really do! lucy vladev, bbc news. 0k, ok, let's catch up with the weather. blue skies for him on his return? absolutely and stunning weather across much of the country today. that is how it will remain for the rest of today. a chance of a few showers breaking out in one or two areas. we have already had a few splits and spots of rain. this low pressure is to the rest of us and the cloud is spiralling into this low pressure. the clouds across western areas linked to the low in the atlantic but many central and eastern and also northern areas enjoying the sunshine today. it is a warm day, 22 or 23 degrees in the south—east and a pleasant 19 to 16 for some of the northern towns and cities. the showers could break out this afternoon and this evening and may be in the midlands there could bea may be in the midlands there could be a couple in the north—west of the

country, but for the