this is bbc news, i'm reeta chakrabarti. the headlines at a.30pm. bringing devastation to jobs and incomes. the bank of england warns the coronavirus pandemic will push the uk towards its deepest recession on record. the government and the bank of england have put in place a very big package of measures. and we will go on utterly focused on that and doing the things that we need to do to support the people of this country. the cabinet meets to discuss easing

the lockdown but we'll have to wait until sunday to find out how the prime minister intends to do it. no easing of the lockdown in scotland for now. the first minister says to do so would be "very, very risky indeed". i will not be pressured into lifting restrictions prematurely, before i can be as certain as i can be that we will not be risking a resurgence of infection rates. analysis of deaths from coronavirus in the uk reveals that the risk of dying from covid—i9 among some ethnic groups is significantly higher. and the coronavirus contact tracing app, being trialled on the isle of wight, goes live to the general public today.

good afternoon and welcome to viewers on bbc one and the bbc news channel, ahead of today's daily coronavirus briefing from downing street. that's taking place at 5pm, with the foreign secretary dominic raab leading proceedings. first, the bank of england is warning that the coronavirus pandemic will push the uk economy into its deepest recession on record. unemployment could more than double and analysts say the economy will shrink 14% this year, even if the lockdown is relaxed injune. that's the sharpest annual contraction for 300 years. but there is some cause for hope. the bank says the uk economy will bounce back. meanwhile, the prime minister has told the cabinet the government will "advance with maximum caution" when deciding about any easing of lockdown measures. we will have to wait until sunday evening for borisjohnson to set out his plans having signalled some measures may be relaxed from next week. scotland's first minister, nicola sturgeon has said she won't be easing the country's lockdown measures for now,

and to do so would be "very, very risky indeed". this afternoon, nhs england has announced a further 383 people have died in hospitals in england after testing positive for covid—i9. in scotland another 59 people have died. another 18 deaths were recorded in wales. and four people have died in hospital in northern ireland. our first report is from our economics correspondent andy verity. unsold cars lined up at a former military airfield in upper heyford, oxfordshire, just one image from what is now expected to be the biggest recession since 1706. since the shutdown began over six weeks ago, the evidence suggests household spending is down 30%, company sales are down 45% and business investment has halved. modelling the impact of covid—i9, the bank of england's working assumption is that the economy will shrink in the first—half of this year by 30%. what it really means is obviously the very sharp sort of downturn we have had is a product

of the situation we have been in now since march, and the restrictions that are in place, which affect obviously economic activity very severely. the interesting question then is of course, what is the path from here onwards going to look like? it is really only through until next summer and thereafter that activity comes fully back. waiting for a recovery next year, though, may be too late for companies who only have enough cash to last weeks, not months. in bristol's empty streets a successful small business, a language school founded 32 years ago employing 64 staff, is trying to adapt its work online. but there's crippling uncertainty. most of its business is done in the summer teaching foreign students english before they go to college. this year, its owner has no idea if they'll come or not. as you can imagine, we are entirely empty, our buildings are closed up, and as many staff as can be have been furloughed. we are trying to teach online to fulfil contractual commitments,

but once those are done, we are unlikely to generate very much income and certainly not enough income to keep staff going or to keep the buildings open. what's extraordinary about the recession we're going through is notjust the speed and its scale, but that governments around the world ordered it. the big question, though, is that when they want their economies to bounce back, will it be as easy to get what they wished for? the bank of england's modelling assumes that unemployment willjump to 9% in spite of government support for businesses, but will come right down again as the economy recovers and grows back by 15%. but is that realistic? there's quite a few reasons why that may not pan out. we are going to have to have social distancing measures and other restrictions in the economy for some time and of course it is the uncertainty that you referred to in your news report. so i think the bank is

probably erring on the optimistic side in terms of how 00:06:04,1000 --> 00:06:05,512 quickly the economy will rebound. the bank of england is at pains to emphasise it can't forecast the economy right now — there's too much uncertainty. but it can be much surer of predicting the biggest recession on record than it can of predicting an extraordinarily rapid recovery. andy verity, bbc news. let's talk to the conservative mp mel stride now. he's chair of the treasury select committee. thanks so much forjoining us on bbc news. this intervention by the governor of the bank of england comes at an interesting time because we know that the government is thinking about very gently in some sort of way easing lockdown measures. where do you stand on how far you go to try and get the economy going again? in terms of lockdown, i think we need to

ease out as quickly as we possibly can. but we need to be careful, because what we mustn't do is to end up in a situation where the r number which we have all been talking about trips back over one, and then the virus sta rts back over one, and then the virus starts to search again, because that would be economically extremely painful. not least because i think businesses would then be fearful that the next time the government tried to come out of lockdown, we might have to retreat again and that would be uncertainty. the r number is how quickly the virus gets transmitted and if that goes up, that means that the virus spreads more rapidly. what is the government to do? what about the politics here? because at the moment, there are 6 million employees who are being paid by the state, and that cannot go on indefinitely, can it? no, it can't. and in fact the cost

of the scheme for the 6 million, the furlough scheme, is 6 million a month, more than we are spending on the entire nhs budget. before the virus struck, the government would talk about a i% oi’ the government would talk about a i% or two and if we could afford it on the nhs budget, and this is a full 100%, so it cannot go on forever, it will have to be unwound. the challenge will be from the chancellor to be able to identify those sectors and businesses who, with a little additional help, might manage to hang on and survive and grow, as opposed to those who do not need the help or those, who sadly, in the new economic environment that will be emerging before we get a vaccine, will struggle very hard indeed to survive at all. you think the government should be more discriminating about which businesses it supports?” discriminating about which businesses it supports? i think in a senseit businesses it supports? i think in a sense it needs to, try and identify those sectors where additional support is going to sustain those businesses. clearly at the moment,

there is little value in supporting those companies, for example, who really don't need support. because there is only a finite amount of resource to go around, and it really needs to be very firmly directed towards those businesses where it will have the most impact and where we can start to see job creation and start to see newjobs coming into the economy. that's quite a brutal message, isn't it, for those businesses who may have to stay shut for quite a long time now. and as you say, who may not open up again. there is a lot that the government can do, and there's a lot that the government has been doing to try and support the economy through this period. but as we have discussed, there is a limit to the amount that can be thrown at this, and therefore, i think the government needs to be in the business of making sure that it provides support in the most effective way possible, and by effective, i mean supporting the economy and those parts of the economy which are going to be able to growjobs so that as we come

through this and out of it, and beyond, we get unemployment down as quickly as possible. because there are sadly going to be manyjobs which do not survive and we need to generate newjobs for which do not survive and we need to generate new jobs for those which do not survive and we need to generate newjobs for those people to ta ke generate newjobs for those people to take up. so given everything you have said, do you share the bank of england's relative optimism that after a recession, and after high unemployment rates, the economy will in fact bounce back? do you think that's right? i think it is undoubtedly the case that the economy, when it hits the bottom and sta rts economy, when it hits the bottom and starts to come up, it will start to rise fairly quickly. but it's a case of whether it gets back to where it was before, and how quickly that actually occurs. i think they're the risks are probably on the downside with these forecasts, it appears to me, as time goes on, that the chance ofa me, as time goes on, that the chance of a quick and rapid v shaped recovery as it is often referred to is probably diminishing. that

doesn't mean that we cannot come back reasonably quickly and the art the government will be to ensure it fits in the right measures and continuing to do the right thing to support the parts of the economy that can do the heavy lifting as we come through and out the other side. many thanks for your time, mel stride, chair of the treasury select committee. the prime minister has told the cabinet today that nothing will be done that risks a second peak when deciding on easing existing coronavirus lockdown measures and that any changes would be made with "maximum caution". borisjohnson will set out his plans at 7pm on sunday, with speculation that the government's "stay at home" message is set to be modified. while it's likely more outdoor activities will be permitted, most of the current lockdown measures are expected to remain in place. wales, northern ireland and scotland have their own powers to lift or keep restrictions. and today, scotland's first minister, nicola sturgeon, has said that any easing of lockdown restrictions there would be "very, very risky". here's our political correspondent, iain watson. is the tide turning on the lockdown?

six weeks in, and the government's finding that it was easier to impose restrictions than to lift them. there's been strong compliance with the measures, and some people are wary about going back to work while the virus remains active. secretary of state, when will you start easing the lockdown measures? although the lockdown in england has been formally reviewed by ministers today, we'll have to wait until sunday for the prime minister to set out the direction of travel. this is a message from the government... but one familiar feature of the lockdown will change this weekend. the government will modify its straightforward and successful "stay home" slogan. to help save lives, stay home. but ministers are stressing that any move to lift the lockdown will be gradual. i'd really urge caution. the safest thing to do, at the moment, with this virus and the way it spreads, is wherever you can to stay home. yes, get out and get that daily exercise, and if you can't work from home and can work in safe circumstances then the guidelines are there for that very purpose,

but we have got to continue on the process that we have had that we are doing everything that we can to ensure people's safety. the prime minister told the commons that there could be some changes to the restrictions in england from monday, and one of the most likely alterations is to expand the range of outdoor activities that are allowed, so instead of simply exercising, you might be able to lounge around in the sunshine, but the key message from the government is this — keep your distance, stay two metres apart, otherwise your new found freedom could be short lived. the devolved governments of scotland, wales, and northern ireland can decide for themselves the pace at which the lockdown is lifted, and scotland's first minister is concerned that the prime minister might not be cautious enough. i will not be pressured into lifting restrictions prematurely before i am as certain as i can be that we will not be risking a resurgence of infection rates. i particularly strongly believe that for us to drop the clear,

well understood, stay at home message right now, could be a potentially catastrophic mistake. moving away from lockdown, even gradually, brings big logistical challenges, such as how to ensure social distancing on public transport while running enough services to get people back to work, and making workplaces safer. labour says the governments has more work to do to convince people to return. the guidelines for different workplaces, they really need to be watertight, clear, and well—understood, and there needs to be a process for dealing with any problems, because if workers don't have confidence that they'll be safe at work, and consumers don't have confidence that they'll be safe when they interact with different businesses, that's really going to hold back our recovery. so in england, one small step in lifting the lockdown could happen within days, but if there's any leap in infections, we could still be facing robust restrictions for months to come. iain watson,

bbc news, westminster. joining me now is dr sanjay patel. he's the clinical lead in infectious diseases at the royal college of paediatrics and child health. doctor patel, a lot has been made of the fact that children have been by and large relatively untouched by covid—i9, has that been your experience? most definitely, i think caddell —— children and adults have behaved very differently during this pandemic and i think we need to acknowledge that when we make decisions in terms of coming out of lockdown. and how should that pattern then informed those decisions? well, it is clear that we cannot maintain the status quo and we do need a strategy which the government is working on and is being advised on by sage. but recognising that children have not got on

well in generaljoin this pandemic means that we can really think seriously about school reopening being one of the earlier measures we take in terms of reversing lockdown. really, and is that despite the fact that we don't know whether children are spiders of the virus or how far they are spreaders of the virus?|i think that is a really good question. anything we do need to be watched extremely closely and real—time data, the use of contact tracing app is fundamentally important because we still don't have all the information we need to make such decisions. we still know that although children are being less severely affected than adults, there is data to suggest they are being infected less frequently as well. that is really interesting. in the hospitals where you work, how has this pandemic affected the

sort of numbers of children that you are seeing? well, we have definitely seen a sharp drop in the number of children presenting to hospital and the same goes for primary care, but that to some extent simply because less infections are spreading amongst children because we are in lockdown and there is less common in children because children are not being injured on sports day, at the weekend, etc. that is probably the main factor. and do you worry some children are not being brought to hospital because of fears they might, that hospitals might be infectious places? absolutely, there is some suggestion thatis absolutely, there is some suggestion that is the case, we have tried really ha rd to that is the case, we have tried really hard to reassure parents that if their child is unwell, they need to bring them to hospital. we have got really robust systems to keep children separate from adults, they are not going to get infected if they come to hospital and we still have our service is open to look after children effectively and safely. 0k, dr sanjay patel, thanks so much

for joining 0k, dr sanjay patel, thanks so much forjoining us. thank you. my pleasure. people from afro—caribbean backgrounds in england and wales are nearly twice as likely to die from coronavirus than white people — that's according to new research by the office for national statistics. people from indian, bangladeshi and pakistani communities also had a significantly higher risk of dying. the government has launched a review into the issue. with me is our head of statistics, robert cuffe. robert, this is an alarming finding, but also a complicated one. it is, absolutely, because we have to account notjust for every factor, that could be having an effect, but not just lumping everybody into one bame going and going individually, community by community. let's look at the data for the different communities being analysed today. we see, as we said in the introduction, black communities, black women here, and

largely the same for black men, they are almost twice as likely to die with covid—i9 as black men. the increases are not as large from a bangladeshi or indian community but still significantly above the risk of white communities, about 60%. but indian communities, it is about 40% higher, so a little bit up. but the chinese people, there is not the difference is that significant. the effect is strongest for black people, but notjust them affected by this. how have these figures been put together? have demographic and social and economic factors been affected in or not? they have, some of them, and you get a very different picture depending on what factors you take into account. we can show the different a nalyses to account. we can show the different analyses to give people a sense of that. there are big differences between each community that could drive the risk.

if you just take account of age because the white population is generally older than the minority ethnic population and the risk if you are black is four times higher thanif you are black is four times higher than if you are white. but if you account for where people live, did they live in cities or in the country? that comes down. if you strip out the effect which is driving some but not all the risk, the risk is two and a bit times higher. if you account for more detailed information make broad measures of deprivation and how educated somebody is, which is a surrogate for how well off they are, thenit surrogate for how well off they are, then it comes down even further. and that brings it down to the final analysis of almost twice as likely, thatis analysis of almost twice as likely, that is the headline figure. but something things are missing from this analysis, it is based on census data from 2011 and a lot of things will have change for a lot of people since then. and it doesn't have the fine level of detail you might need to be able to really tease apart how

much somebody‘s exact occupation, that the drive how much exposure they get to the virus. those factors are the things we really need to understand further. this analysis basically tells us we cannot simply explain away the differences, they are real, we don't have the final as of what is driving it and therefore what the solution is going to be. thank you very much, robert cuffe. around a quarter of the population on the isle of wight have downloaded the nhs contact—tracing app that went live to the general public there today. the mobile phone app anonymously warns users if they have been near to another person with the app who reports having covid—19 symptoms. much hope is being placed in the technology's ability to help bring the country out of lockdown, but island residents have some mixed feelings towards it, as duncan kennedy reports. from the moment you leave the ferry and pass through the towns and countryside that make up the isle of wight, you can see why its self—contained cross—section of life makes it the ideal place to test the

new nhs covid—19 app. you have reached your destination. and derek sandy is one of the first members of the general public to download it. derek is a singer by profession, but has also become a cultural ambassador for the island. he says it takes just a few seconds to put the app onto your smartphone, and that it'll be vital in tracing the virus across the community. it's really, really important for everyone who has access, you know, to download the app. again, it could save your life, your father's life, your mother, your sister, your brother's life. the new app is being offered to the 80,000 households on the island from today. it works by collecting random identities of other nearby app users and the time and distance they are from each other. if one of those is feeling ill, they upload their symptoms and data to the nhs server.

that data is then analysed and any one of those people at risk is sent a message, advising them to self—isolate. trisha and graham are neighbours in the town of ryde. both have now downloaded the app and intend to use it. what have you got to lose? you're carrying your phone round with you 2a hours a day — most people, anyway = so it takes three or four seconds most people, anyway — so it takes three or four seconds to download it. what's the problem with it? it looks good, it's simple to download. if it prevents deaths, then download it and use it, and use the isle of wight as a testing ground. and that kind of support for the app does seem to be growing. according to the isle of wight‘s mp, by lunchtime today, more than 30,000 people had already downloaded the app. that's about a quarter of the entire population. but there are still concerns about data protection for users. today, a cross—party group of

mps and peers said the app shouldn't be rolled out further unless privacy is guaranteed. people won't sign up to this app unless they're confident that their data is being protected, and that confidence can be given if parliament passes a new law to actually say, what's going to be the purpose of this data—gathering ? the island is a test—bed for a new app that works by linking smartphones through a kind of digital handshake. the government hopes it'll be a key part of a programme of measures against covid—19. duncan kennedy, bbc news, on the isle of wight. some of england's urgent dental centres — set up to offer emergency treatment during the lockdown — still don't have the right protective equipment to allow them to see patients. that admission has come from the health minister, jo churchill, as patients say they're still struggling to get treatment, and some have resorted to taking their own teeth out. dan johnson reports. i was in so much pain. i would have gone through birth,

rather than that pain, it was horrendous. by the third week, it was getting that ijust couldn't cope with the pain any more. it's literally immoral. like, how can you do that? patients who are in pain are facing some very limited options. it would just be removing the front tooth. so, it would be living until, i don't know, the end ofjuly, august, without a tooth, which isn't great. i've been told more antibiotics or tooth out, and both those options aren't feasible for me, because i don't want to lose my front tooth. you know, and it's like, i feel like we're just going back in time with dentistry. protective equipment‘s vital, working up—close with procedures that create airborne particles. the health minister has now admitted there were delays and some centres still have issues more than six weeks after regular dentistry was put on hold. we're here. a fortnight ago, we met mike, who was at work, but only giving telephone advice. things have barely improved. the problem is, there's a lot

of non—urgent problems now that are being left and can become urgent because of, basically, neglect. to say to the nhs "essential service", and it's oral health, which obviously impacts on your mental health, your physical health, and it'sjust being left by this, it'sjust beyond belief. nhs england says 400 urgent care centres are open, but there are now huge questions about how practices can start seeing their own patients once again. dan johnson, bbc news. in other news. mobile operator 02 and broadband giant virgin media are to merge, creating one of the uk's largest entertainment and telecoms firms and a major rival to bt. our technology correspondent, rory cellan—jones, gave us this update. let's look at the figures and how the two compare post—the merger. virgin, with its many

broadband customers, many fast broadband customers, and 02, with all of those mobile customers, they have about 29 million over all. that compares with the slightly bigger bt group. bt — phone lines, broadband customers, it's got ee, which was a very big mobile phone player, and plusnet, another broadband player. 0verall, they have 32 million. so, quite a fight shaping up. will it be good for customers? which?, the consumer group is not convinced because it is taking another player out of the market. overall, the overall telecoms market, that's not normally good for prices. which is pointing out neither of the firms has the best reputation for customer service. so they want the competition regulator to have a close look at this. it looks likely to be approved because bt was allowed to buy ee a few years back, but there will be close examination of their investment plans in particular.

they will have to spend a lot of money rolling out both 5g and fibre broadband to every home, so they will be under the regulator's spotlight for years to come. as we wait for the daily press conference from downing street with dominic raab leading the proceedings, let's get more from our political correspondentjessica parker, who's at westminster. jessica, i suppose the government might have to embark on a damping down exercise this afternoon after lots of headlines this morning saying lockdown is over. yes, i think that dampening down exercise has already begun. we heard from downing street earlier that boris johnson, when he was speaking to his cabinet at a virtual cabinet meeting earlier today, he talked about how the government would advance with maximum caution and it is a message as well that he reiterated to opposition leaders in westminster during a call with them today as well. i think following some of those headlines, which i think it is safe to say raised a few eyebrows in

downing street today, i think the government is keen to emphasise that lockdown is set to continue in many ways. one of the reasons that i think the speculation began is we knew that the prime minister would be making some kind of address on sunday, but it was at prime minister's questions when he talked about how some measures, he did not specify which, could be loosened from monday. but the emphasis has been that if any measures are loosened and they are still looking at the data, it is a dynamic and changing situation, they will be very minor. and the other thing that emerged overnight from senior government sources is the stay at home message, which has been a core pa rt home message, which has been a core part of the government messaging and scene is pretty successful in largely getting people to stay at home except for those essential trips that have been made out, that message was set to be dropped this weekend. ministers have not been keen to talk about that today, but it is certainly something that will be put to the first secretary of state dominic raab and we have heard the first minister of scotland nicola sturgeon saying today she

thinks it could be potentially catastrophic, should that message be dropped. so a little bit of tension between different approaches and it is worth highlighting that england, scotland, wales, northern ireland, they can take different approaches on this issue in terms of what they wa nt to on this issue in terms of what they want to do with lockdown and the first minister nicola sturgeon has today said she is going to extend the lockdown for now, so that is another thing that could be taught about at the press conference today, how are the four nations going to try and largely remain in lockstep, which does seem to be the preference, but there seems to be a slight difference of opinion in terms of what to do next. interestingly, the prime minister among some of the because he has made today, he has also been talking with the leaders of the devolved administrations. do we think that theissues administrations. do we think that the issues of testing and ppe will come out this afternoon? setting is quite likely to come up —— testing is quite likely to come up,

people will be familiar of the target that matt hancock set to get to 100,000 tests per day by the end of april, just after the end of april, because there was a slight lag in reporting, he said that he had surpassed that, something over 120,000 tests had been provided. there was some dispute in how the figures were arrived at but nevertheless the numbers have started to drop, and i think the last few days actually they have fallen below that target. now there are arguments as to what extent that really matters. some say... i think the press conference with dominic raab is now under way. good afternoon, and welcome to today's downing street press conference. very pleased to be joined by sir ian diamond, the national statistician from the 0ns, and doctorjenny harries, deputy chief medical officer. the latest data from our cobra coronavirus data file shows that as of today, there have now been 1,000,530

tests for coronavirus across the uk, including 86,583 tests carried out yesterday. 206,715 people have tested positive, an increase of 5614 cases since yesterday. those who have tested positive, very sadly, 13,600 people have died and my condolences go to anyone who has lost a loved one throughout this pandemic. three weeks ago before the easter bank holiday weekend, i set out five tests for the uk to move onto the next phase in this pandemic. then, just as now, there were calls to ease up just as now, there were calls to ease up on just as now, there were calls to ease up on the restrictions. but as the science made clear, we could not responsibly do that. in fact the advice from the group of scientific experts who advise the government, sage, made it clear that there were

no changes at all that we could confidently take without risking a second peak in this virus. that is why we asked the public to keep going, we weren't done yet. we said, stick to the plan and the british public kept going. people stuck to the rules. that meant working from home, it meant worries about money, adjusting to home—schooling, time apart from her family and friends and just not doing many of the things we enjoy in life. at the same time, a lot of people have despite their own personal sacrifices have gone the extra mile. they volunteered to support the elderly and vulnerable in their community, who have been shielded themselves away from the virus. and each thursday we now come together to applaud the nhs staff and carers, the people who just kept going to keep our country going. and because of that monumental effort, we have now passed the peak of the virus. the nhs has not been overwhelmed, we have not seen hospital wards

overwhelmed with patients, people left without hospital beds or without the ventilators which can mean the difference between life and death. i know the tragic death toll in this country and around the world has been sobering for all of us, and there have been real challenges in this country with ppe and care homes. but in this first stage of the fight against covid—19, through this national team effort, we have prevented the number of deaths rising to even higher levels and we have ensured critically that the nhs had the capacity to cope. today, cabinet was updated on sage's advice on the progress we have made today. and as a result of the social distancing measures we put in place, the r level which signifies the rate of infection is between 0.5 andnot .9. the overall number of new cases has been falling and the rate of deaths is steadily falling. to be clear what this means

in practice, the virus is not beaten yet. it remains deadly and infectious. and we are working very hard right across government and local government to bring it down in areas of concern, like in care homes, and i'm confident we can do it and we will do it. but because we held them three weeks ago, we are now in a position to start to think about the next phase in this pandemic. this weekend, the prime minister will set out the next steps we can responsibly take over the following weeks, guided by the scientific advice and mindful, as we have said right from the word go, of taking the right decisions at the right time. we can start to set out how we will live and work whilst maintaining necessary social distancing, we can be clear about those measures which are still necessary to prevent a second peak. the prime minister has been directing ministers and teams of

officials right across government to carefully develop a road map for the next phase. it contains appropriate measures to be taken at appropriate milestones, subject to very clear conditions, and there will be detailed guidance to help and in form, reassure and advise public, businesses and other organisations. to get this right we have set milestones. some changes can confidently be introduced more quickly than others, and some other ones will take longer to introduce. and it's important to say, at each point along the way, when we take these decisions, they will be based on the five tests and scientific advice that we receive. and as i set out in the face of our five tests, when ice bow care on the 16th of april, —— when i spoke here on the 16th of april, at the point when we make the smallest change in the guidance, that will be the point of maximum risk. if people abandon

social distancing and we forget the sacrifices that have made us get through this peak and get us to this point the virus will grow at an exponential rate, leading to a second peak which would threaten the nhs, trigger another lockdown which would prolong economic pain. and we are determined to keep it temporary and as short as possible. so we have kept the current measures in place for this loan precisely so that we can bounce back with vigour and energy as possible, as soon as it's possible to look at the second face. because of that, our next steps will be sure—footed and sustainable. any changes we make will be carefully monitored, and if people don't follow the rules and if we see the r level go back up, we will tighten restrictions again, we will always retain the option to do so. that way we can safeguard public health and also safeguard the economy in a sustainable way. having prepared carefully, based on the updated

advice from sage, this weekend the prime minister will set out the road map for the next phase along with the conditions for reaching each milestone. that way we can provide the country with a better understanding of what lies ahead, we can offer reassurance that we will adjust to the restrictions to the minimum necessary to prevent a second spike in the virus, and we can give people the confidence that we are doing it in a way that will protect life and preserve our way of life. then i will hand over tojenny to prevent the data on the latest slides. thank you. first slide, please. thank you. so this is just a very quick reminder of what we are working to achieve, and the five tests that the first secretary has just mentioned for adjusting the lockdown, the slides will show how we are progressing towards that. the first thing is to reinforce the action that people have taken,

sorry, could do you revert to the slide, thank you. just to show how much people have been following the social distancing rules, and really helping to bring the rate of infection down, but also to be protecting each other, so the number of people avoiding contact with vulnerable people of adults is that 9296, vulnerable people of adults is that 92%, who have avoided contact with older and vulnerable people in the last seven days, and 82% have only left their home for the reasons that we know you should. and that has reflected now in a much reduced r rate and the and opportunities we have to go forward carefully and adjust the measures. the other interesting thing looking forward is 44% of adults in employment have said they have worked from home at

some point in the last week, significantly changed from 12% last year. that helps social distancing, but i think it also helps people recognise other opportunities of how they can work in the future. the next slide, please. here we see the daily tests, which have increased, so the tests yesterday, or rather, up so the tests yesterday, or rather, up to 9am this morning, carried out, where 86,500. there has been a little bit of a technical hitch in the lab at the weekend but that is now starting to rise again, and we will see in the following slides how that translates through to detection of disease. and here we have on this slide, the blue pillar there is the nhs swap testing, the rates of case detection are coming down. these

are primarily within health care settings in hospital, but the orange pillars on the top represent the increased capacity and numbers of tests that are being carried out. 0bviously, tests that are being carried out. obviously, we hope overall that our case numbers will come down, but in this intervening period while testing is increasing, we expect those orange peel is to grow, so we will have increased case detection but we want to watch the blue pillars come down as they are now. and this slide, which we have seen before, but i think with some trepidation at the top of those peaks, we can now see thatjust about all regions have come right back down to relatively low levels compared with the peak. of course i say relatively, for the number of people in hospital, that is still representing a huge workload for nhs

front line staff. but it does show a decrease of 16% over the last week. next slide, please. and again, reflected from that last slide is the use of critical care beds. at one time there was concern that with a rising epidemic, we would have sufficient capacity, there was a plan to manage that and now, less than a third of critical care beds are occupied by covid—19 patients. that has been decreasing right across the uk over the last two weeks. next slide. here we have the seven day rolling average. 0bviously sitting behind this are recorded deaths, none of which we would wish to be there. but on the positive side of that is the fact that we can see the rise in the epidemic peak and the subsequent later deaths, there were 539 deaths in

all settings following, in the last period. but the seven day rolling average now is a mid week one, which is the most robust figure. you can see the variation over the weekend periods in that slide and this is the lowest since we have seen since the lowest since we have seen since the end of march. importantly, all the end of march. importantly, all the social distancing measures that we have been doing, we need to keep doing it to maintain that gradual decline. and then finally a quick comparison, it's important that we compare data internationally, and this is global death comparison. as we have mentioned frequently, there are variations in how different countries measure deaths and these are numbers rather than rates. thank you very much. thomas from

london is first. considering the track and trace measure is not yet operational, and the comparatively slow greatly means we have little marginfor slow greatly means we have little margin for ever. how safe is it to lift lockdown. thomas, thank you for the question, you have nailed it. we have the latest data from sage, we have the latest data from sage, we have come through the peak but it is a very delicate moment so we need to proceed with caution. the prime minister needs to set out a road map, which will notjust include the kind of things that we are doing but the criteria to make sure that we make sure footed steps and we can monitor any changes that we incrementally make to make sure we do not see the virus get back its grip on this country and see the r rate go back up. so there is an opportunity to move to the second phase and start looking towards that, but it has to be done very carefully, subject to strict

conditions, with strict monitoring to make sure that we do it in a controlled and sustainable way. thank you for your question. i think we have one from brandon from warrington now. how does the government intend to control ongoing outbreaks in prisons... i think the prison system and all of those prison officers have done an incredible job. those prison officers have done an incrediblejob. 0f those prison officers have done an incredible job. of course there is concern around covid—19 in both for staff and also for offenders, we have got a plan in place which has meant that has not become a major issue. but we take nothing for granted, we are not complacent about it for a moment. i spoke to the justice secretary this week, we are monitoring it very carefully. actually, we are confident we have the situation under control. i think we will move over to the media,

laura kuenssberg from the bbc. you are on mute, laura, is that at your end? can you hear me? well done, don't worry, that is not your question gone! thank you very much. can you confirm one point of fact, are you renewing the restrictions today, as you have to do under the legislation is to mark and nicola sturgeon has said it is potentially catastrophic to move away from the stay at home message. given that the disease is still prevalent in many parts of the country, are you really sure it is safe to lift any of the restrictions, however gradual rolling back the lockdown might be? dr harries, you said the r is somewhere between 0.5 and 0.9, can

you tell people what the r level is in different parts of the country, given it is such a key factor in how the decisions will be made? thanks, laura, first, whether you are in london, edinburgh, cardiff or belfast, as we enter another long bank holiday weekend, i think the message is very clear, follow the guidance. to answer your question, there is no change today in the guidance of the rules. but as i have also explained, the prime minister will set out a road map on sunday. and of course, we are locked into the closest collaboration with the devolved administrations through cobra, but also the prime minister spoke to first minister is today. he reiterated our commitment to continuing a uk wide approach. take tackling the pandemic. even if different parts may move at slightly different parts may move at slightly different speeds, but i think the key thing is those decisions are made based on the science and the circumstances for each nation. ian

cani circumstances for each nation. ian can i do want to comment on the other point? the question is, what is the r around the uk? clearly, there is some variation and we are absolutely working with some fantastic estimates done by our modelling community. i think the consensus is that it is below one everywhere. there was probably in london. but certainly, some variation across the different regions. —— lowest probably in london. would you like a follow—up question, laura? is it possible to give exact numbers and, foreign secretary, you stood at that same like ten time after time and said it would be wrong to talk about lifting any kind of restrictions because you might give people the wrong impression, but is that not exactly what the government risks doing now ahead of what looks like being a very sunny bank holiday weekend when many people are desperate to get out? first, i have said very clearly and iam happy

first, i have said very clearly and i am happy to say again there is no changing the rules today, what the prime minister will do is set out on sunday a road map to look to the future and explain what steps will be taken, at what moment in time and critically, the evidence to back it up. we have always said consistently from the outset we have to take the right decisions at the right moment in time, guided by the evidence. that is consistently what we have said from the outset and that approach is continuing. anything else you say? no, i'm quite happy to produce them later, but i don't have them in front of me now. thanks very much, laura. itv. hello, foreign secretary, thanks very much. this afternoon, one of your advisers, professorjohn edmonds, afternoon, one of your advisers, professor john edmonds, told afternoon, one of your advisers, professorjohn edmonds, told mps that transmission in the community was no longer a problem. he suggested that the epidemic was now centred on hospitals and care homes. do you accept that the government blundered and not focusing on

these particularly vulnerable areas earlier and that is why the lockdown is having to go on for so long for the rest of us? well, first, it is good news the r has come down overall. that is because of the measures we put in place, because when i stood here before the easter bank holiday we said we will stick to our guns. and frankly, because of the efforts of the public in following that guidance and indeed the billing to essential workers in the billing to essential workers in the nhs, care homes and other ways. we have definitely got a challenging ca re we have definitely got a challenging care homes. the cqc data that came out i think yesterday showed that overall, in care homes, the number of deaths was down by over 300 on the last week. so that is positive, but there is still a very significant issue in care homes. jenny and i were in a whitehall meeting yesterday looking at exactly how we ramp up every bit of what we need to do around the social distancing in care homes, the ebb and flow of people into care

homes, the ppe and testing to make sure we bear down on this problem. and you are right, there is also an issue in hospitals. it is good news that overall, we have got control across the country. but of course, as we have always said, we have to make sure we see consistent falls in the death rate and infection rate across all settings and that is how we continue with our approach. professor edmonds would also have said and! professor edmonds would also have said and i would certainly say that in early march, as we started to move towards the policy is that the public have been so wonderful in taking place, we were doubling the size of the epidemic every three days. and if you look at the graph that dr harries showed earlier, you see a very that dr harries showed earlier, you see a very steep upward curve. the fa ct see a very steep upward curve. the fact it is coming down now is because, i believe, of the success the ons because, i believe, of the success the 0ns has been measuring as many of the of the lockdown measures. would you like to follow up on any of that? yes, on

another topic, essentially, there is a huge amount of data now suggesting that black adults in this country are particularly vulnerable, perhaps the death rate is something like four times that for the equivalent people of white ethnicity. the government said it is looking into it, are you going to do something about it to protect for example front line workers from these ethnic groups? well, first, we are very concerned about it, it is something we take very seriously. we are learning more about this virus all the time because it is new. and we have asked public health england to look very carefully at all the implications and how it is affecting different communities, but particularly the bame community, and once we have the advice back from them, we will know what interventions can sensibly be made. and that is the way, again, as we have said throughout, we need the scientific evidence to back up any policy decisions we would want to

make on that front. thank you, libby. betty rigby, from sky news. thank you, first secretary of state, the prime minister said you, first secretary of state, the prime ministersaid in you, first secretary of state, the prime minister said in the commons yesterday there would be changes to the lockdown from monday and millions of people would have read that would include more outdoor exercise and sunbathing. yet today, you are saying they must adhere to the lockdown ahead of a statement on sunday, as we go into this sunny bank holiday weekend. can you see how the public will find this really confusing, do we sunbathe on monday, but not on sunday? i'm just a follow—up on libby's question, should bame people now be shielding as they are potentially more vulnerable and at greater risk of catching and dying from coronavirus? well, in relation to the bame question we will take decisions as policymakers when we have

clear advice from php on the causes and the implications and what we could responsibly do. that is the responsible thing to do. in relation to any next changes or second phase, we are going to be guided by the evidence. we have had updated evidence. we have had updated evidence from sage, there is further evidence from sage, there is further evidence coming through and we obviously have to take those decisions at the right moment in time based on that evidence. whatever is being reported in the newspapers is not a reliable guide to either the evidence we are getting all the policy decisions we will be taking. that is why it is very important macro on sunday will set out a road map. i think it is safe to say that any changes in the short term will be modest, small, incremental and very carefully monitored and as of now, there is no changes. the key thing is we want to give a responsible sense of the road map ahead coupled with the

milestones and conditions so people have the reassurance and confidence that we will protect life and preserve our way of life, but that we are doing it in a responsible way and of course, if we find, and this is very important at this stage in the virus, not just is very important at this stage in the virus, notjust for the uk, but others at a similar stage having come through the peak, if we find in the future that the r level goes back up of people are not following the rules we must have the ability to put back measures in place and thatis to put back measures in place and that is the way we can responsibly go through this stage and transition into a second phase. but we will ta ke into a second phase. but we will take the right decisions at the right time and for the moment, it is really important, particularly as people look towards a warm bank holiday weekend, that we continue to follow the guidance in place at this time. did you want to come back? given that we are going into the bank holiday, you are formally rolling over the lockdown, is it not unhelpful if the prime minister says on wednesday that he wants,

that there might be changes on monday and then he doesn't turn up today to tell the british public what those changes might be ahead of the bank holiday? that is simplyjust not the case and i set out what we are doing, explaining the prime minister on sunday, when we compiled the evidence and we do so in a responsible and sure—footed fashion, will set out the road map ahead. any measures taken next week will be relatively modest, incremental steps to carefully —— carefully monitored, subject to the qualifications we have set and we will set out a road map with milestones and maximum conditionality on that to make sure we ta ke conditionality on that to make sure we take sure—footed steps. i know people are desperate to know what he will say on sunday. i am not going tojump the gun. we have will say on sunday. i am not going to jump the gun. we have always said we will take the right decisions at the right moment. thank you very much. chris smith from the times. thank you, a couple of things, temperature testing is not something we have done before because it

is not a panacea. but in south korea, it is a regular part of being allowed into airports, workplaces, restaurants and it has been reported we're at it here, so is that the next lesson we will learn from asia? a follow—up from libby's question, professor edmond said this afternoon there are about 20,000 new infections of coronavirus every day at the moment and sir ian is studying this, does he agree and if not, what is his estimate? for secretary, he agree and if not, what is his estimate ? for secretary, you he agree and if not, what is his estimate? for secretary, you put quite a wide estimate on r and professor edmund said it was very much at the higher end of that, just below one, and higher than it was two we e ks below one, and higher than it was two weeks ago, largely because of what is happening in hospitals and ca re what is happening in hospitals and care homes, so is that a concern and how much is that delaying how much we can ease up on restrictions? you managed to get into easy questions, very craftily done! in relation to the r, i have articulated the r level and the

range explained to us —— you managed to get in three questions. restrictions on the border will be announced in due course in a sensible way. i think the evidence so far has always been temperature tests are not particularly effective to proceed. but i think the critical thing we have taken advice on border measures andi have taken advice on border measures and i have asked consistently this question to deputy cmo is an chief scientific advisers and the other scientists, and i think the evidence suggests once you have got, there is not much point in taking those measures until the r level is down below a certain point, and as you start to get control of it, you don't want the uk, the source of that being from abroad. that is the point at which you would want to consider restrictions on monitoring at the border. shall ijust add a comment? you are also referring to potential use in other environments, restaurants and things which is a routine part of

south korean working. i think there isa south korean working. i think there is a strong reassurance mechanism for the public, but as i said previously, if you have a disease and it has an incubation period of up and it has an incubation period of up to 14 days, the likelihood of finding somebody at the point where they have a temperature and you have a reliable bit of kit, so most thermal scanners will be distracted from environmental colour, density and temperature is as well. so you need a reliable bit of kit and even then, your chance of picking somebody up is very small. but it can have a reassurance mechanism, i think. the other really important thing in relation to covid—19, a sizeable proportion, up to a third of people, do not have a temperature at presentation, they may have it variably through the illness or they don't have it. we are learning more about the symptoms and signs —— signs people have. i doubt that we could expect that, we want to catch people in the early phase of the

disease where they are most likely to transmit and not all of them will have a temperature. you asked whether i agreed with professor edmonds and i think we are incredibly lucky in this country to have mathematicians of the quality of professor edmonds and the others in the various teams around the uk who are making those estimates. and they are based on new data every time, they make two estimates are weak, and! time, they make two estimates are weak, and i think i would personally support them. 0ver weak, and i think i would personally support them. over the next few weeks, they will get extra data through a very large study the 0ns is doing together with the university of oxford and university of manchester which will provide direct community evidence both on the number infected at a particular time, numberof the number infected at a particular time, number of people infected and the numberof time, number of people infected and the number of people

who have had at some stage the virus and therefore have an antibody to it. and those data, as they become available, on a wee kly data, as they become available, on a weekly basis over the next wail, will inform those numbers even more. but to answer your question straight, i but to answer your question straight, lam but to answer your question straight, i am very happy with those numbers. did you have a follow—up? did you have a follow-up? on r then, the fact it is higher than it was two we e ks the fact it is higher than it was two weeks ago, is that delaying what we can do and we have to wait for the outbreak in care homes to be under control? i should probably defer, i'm not sure, the range... you far away. —— fire away the professor is right, the r has gone up professor is right, the r has gone upa professor is right, the r has gone up a little bit from his last estimates, driven by the epidemic in ca re estimates, driven by the epidemic in care homes, and i would not differ from that. that gives us a real challenge to reduce the epidemic in ca re challenge to reduce the epidemic in care homes. and it's one over the

next few weeks, from what i see happening, i think we'll happening. it is important to recognise that the r number itself is only relevant if you look also at the context of the prevalence. and i think we need to bring the two together properly to bring the two together properly to understand where we are. let me give you an example, first secretary, if you wouldn't mind me being technical for a minute. please do. if you imagine the situation... if you have prevalence of 0.0001, tiny numbers, that is the same every week, then the r will be won because it is flatlining, and that is so important. —— the r will be the numberone, so we important. —— the r will be the number one, so we always need to think of prevalence. we need to get on top of the

epidemic in the care homes and in hospitals, i know there isa homes and in hospitals, i know there is a lot of work going on in those arenas. i think in the community we have things relatively low at the moment. overall, the r level is down but there is clearly a challenge that remains in care homes, although i will point to the cqc data which shows that the number of deaths is down over 300 and this time last week. but the reality is, our top focus is on the hospital infections and on the care home settings. we have a very robust and rigorous plan to really drive down the infection rate in those two settings over the next month, and we are confident we can deliver on that. anything you would add? to reinforce what you are saying, there are a number of things that you can do to try and support ca re that you can do to try and support care homes and residents in them, andi care homes and residents in them, and i think we need to focus equally, not just and i think we need to focus equally, notjust on the residents but on the staff as well. because these are quite closed communities, if you like. and as we

have been talking about the r in the community where everybody had done so well to bring that number down, but of course, workers who are working in ca re course, workers who are working in care and health settings are also pa rt care and health settings are also part of the local communities. so we need to make sure we address infection control measures are make them robust. we test, we have always been testing for outbreaks, but i think we are getting new information getting through about asymptomatic infection and how that particularly present in the elderly, and those are the people most at risk. using that new evidence, increased testing and increased focus, and new support coming in from nhs england and increased focus, and new support coming infrom nhs england in and increased focus, and new support coming in from nhs england in terms of getting clinical support to our ca re of getting clinical support to our care homes, i think that focus will be, well, we have seen some positive signs already and i'm sure that will continue. the single biggest challenge we have in care homes is

the ebb and flow of people in and out of them, particularly when they are not showing signs of having the virus. at least that is something we can control and focus on with laser—like precision and that's what we'll do. chris, thank you. the express. thank you, to doctor harries, what is the latest medical thinking about the impact of warm weather on the virus? is there any danger that any lockdown restrictions that are ease over the summer months may have to be imposed in the autumn, because of seasonal variations? and foreign secretary, a question about the government's contact tracing app. people who download this app face being asked to go into isolation, possibly multiple times, if they come into contact with people who have reported symptoms. will they be entitled to sick pay or will their employers be entitled to any competition if they are forced to go into isolation again and again?

on that, jumping the gun a little bit on the guidance but the key thing is, ithink on the guidance but the key thing is, i think it will be a liberating thing for people and indeed for the country as a whole, because it will allow people who might have the symptoms to be clear that they don't have coronavirus, and therefore not be subject to those restrictions which is the most important thing that will allow people to get out of isolation measures earlier than will be the case. picking up the issue about the weather, it is a new virus and we are still learning about it and we are still learning about it and so! and we are still learning about it and so i would like to leave the evidence base open a little bit. but when we first learned about it, if we look at something like seasonal flu, there was a possibility that it would behaving the same way so we would behaving the same way so we would see a decline in the warmer weather. but if you look around the world, we are seeing epidemics in warmer and cooler climates. i think probably not a lot of evidence there. your point about lockdown and there. your point about lockdown and

the winter is a very important one. i don't think it particularly relates to lockdown but it does relates to lockdown but it does relate very much to active work now, first in pushing and we are most successful in pushing the peak forward which we have seen, we definitely don't want a second peak and we don't want it in the winter because people will be suffering from other winter infections so there will be increased debilitation. but it is probably a good place for me as a public health doctor to all go and get your flu jab this year, really important that people maintain their health and ta ke people maintain their health and take every preventative measure that they can. did you have any follow—ups? they can. did you have any follow-ups? that's fine, thank you. get to speak to. pa, final question. —— good to speak to you. get to speak to. pa, final question. -- good to speak to you. we have got 20,000 people a day still being affected. on saturday my colleague asked whether we know where people are contracting the virus, i

believe you said you had the data, but not to hand. can we ask again, people picking it up in supermarkets and public transport or is it primarily ca re public transport or is it primarily care homes and hospitals? surely this is a vital thing when it comes to easing the lockdown. as has already been explained the evidence that has been provided to us means overall we have the rate of infection down across the community, but the two places where there are concerns our hospitals and care homes, and we have a clear and concerted plan which covers everything from cohort to social distancing through to testing and ppe. so we are not complacent in those settings at all but we have a plan which we are delivering to bring it right down. yes, to reinforce that, i think that is where our focus of attention is going forward and where we think cases are potentially going to be at

the higher end, whilst those in the community are dropping off. it's very difficult to say precisely where an individual caught the disease, because we are exposed to multiple things, and at the time of a pandemic when an infection is fairly widespread, it's difficult to pinpoint that. we can look in some ways so for example looking at different transmissions and the chain of transmission, and seeing where most risks are and when we do that, most of the transmissions are at home. so the home environment is at home. so the home environment is a very strong environment for finding linked cases. equally there is some very good genomics work going on at the moment which will give us a really good data going forward to understand where the chains of transmission are, and where they came into the country from. i would add one thing if i may. all the data we are looking at shows the success of social distancing, and if i may give a personal view, i do

believe that social distancing and maintaining it over the next few weeks is going to be essential to continuing to reduce the epidemic. did you want a supplementary, last question? yeah, thank you. can ijust asked, you said a moment ago about the problem being the ebb and flow of people into care homes. doesn't that underline the need to get testing back to 100,000 a day? can i ask if you are considering testing relatives who might want to be visiting people in care homes?” think the challenge, and it is similar in hospital settings and in ca re similar in hospital settings and in care homes, people who aren't showing symptoms but you have coronavirus passing it on and the speed at which we can detect that. testing is part of that, but also its the movement of people in and out of their settings which is fuelling the transmission. so they are both parts of the problem, there isn't a silva bullet here, it's

about putting all the bits of the jigsaw together and having a strategic and holistic approach and we are confident now we have got enough information and we have the daters and the plan in place to drive down the infection rates in hospitals but also in care homes. thank you very much, that brings an end to this press conference, thank you all very much. dominic raab are bringing an end to the latest of the daily downing street briefings. covered quite a lot of ground there to a certain extent, that was thought to be a holding press conference because we know that the prime minister is going to announce his road map to easing the lockdown on sunday but still quite a lot of interesting detail. to talk about it, our health correspondent is here, lauren. as always, we're presented with the latest set of data, let's talk through figures. let's start with the number of new recorded deaths in

the number of new recorded deaths in the uk in the last 24 hours, 539 further deaths recorded. some in england occurred several weeks ago but that data has just been recorded now. we can see in the graph that it isa now. we can see in the graph that it is a reduction from yesterday on the day before and the overall trend shows a downward curve in the number of new recorded deaths but still 539 in the last 24 hours and in the latest numbers of testing, lots of talks about targets for testing, 86,583 tests done yesterday, an increase of 15,000 on yesterday, but 15,000 lower than they were doing at the weekend. the deputy chief medical officer said there was a technical glitch in labs at the weekend that things are now up and running, and from the test, 5500 new cases diagnosed. also the number of

new admissions for hospitals, again on an overall trend in all areas of the uk, more rapidly in london. slightly less rapid in wales, the north—east and south—west of england but still overall declining with 12,692 people in hospital at the moment with covid—19. a decrease of 16% in the last week and less than a third of our critical care beds are currently occupied. something that came up repeatedly was the issue of the r rate, the rate at which coronavirus is transmitted. there seems to be some different of opinion between government minister dominic raab and the government adviser? yes, before the lockdown was brought in, that r number could have been as high as three, that is when an infected person could have infected three people. dominic raab said in the press briefing we have just listened to that that number has reduced

20.5 20.9, two 0.5 — 0.9. but today it has been discussed that the rate of infection could have risen between 0.75 and one, not a huge increase, but this could be in hospital settings and care homes which as we heard in the press conference is the real priority to make sure that the virus transmission is low in those settings. it suggests that in hospital it is declining but in care homes perhaps there is still a problem, more and more data is emerging on this daily. between 0.75 and one of the science committee said, and the government knows how much of a priority, taking advice from the science experts, bringing that great of —— rate of infection below one will be before releasing any lockdown measures in a

sustainable way. one of the other graphs that was shown were on the number of tests, testing is coming a big political issue —— has become a big political issue —— has become a big political issue over the last few weeks. where are we on test? just over 86000 and over the last 24 hours, up on the amount they did on tuesday, an increase on 15,000. but at the weekend they were hitting 122,000 provided to tests, but it had been dropping. still 15,000 lower than the weekend but there we re lower than the weekend but there were some technical difficulties in the labs perhaps, that is result from what the deputy chief medical officer was saying and of course borisjohnson officer was saying and of course boris johnson outlined officer was saying and of course borisjohnson outlined that goal to have a capacity of 200,000 tests by the end of may. understood capacity at the moment is around 150 tests but it's not just at the moment is around 150 tests

but it's notjust about having the capacity, it's having mobile testing centres, home kits as well, tests getting to people who want them and getting to people who want them and getting the results, to work out where the viruses and how it is spreading to keep the pushed down. lauren, many thanks, as always. let's get more now from our political correspondent at westminster. jessica parker was listening to that briefing. what struck you? i think you describe it as a holding press co nfe re nce i think you describe it as a holding press conference and it did somewhat feel like that. dominic raab not really saying too much in terms of what we have been talking about a lot today, how those lockdown measures may at some point be eased, what extent they will be eased, something he did want to emphasise was that the virus was not beaten yet. he did say there would be no change in guidance today. one of the reasons we are talking so much about the lockdown is today is the

day that they legally have to look at the review of the lockdown measures. so there has been no change today, he made that clear. but he is throwing ahead to sunday when boris johnson is going to lay out this road map for what might happen with schools, what might happen in road —— workplaces, in terms of getting to work, had to do that safely. he said he was not going tojump to work, had to do that safely. he said he was not going to jump the gun ahead of the press conference so he didn't want to reveal too much at this stage. ministers have been saying, the data are still coming in, we want to have time to look at the data, and study it before making big decisions. we are now waiting for sunday when boris johnson big decisions. we are now waiting for sunday when borisjohnson will make this televised address in the evening, and interestingly, we have learned a bit more today about what the following day will bring. we think there will be some documents the following day outlining a bit more detail, more flesh on the bones of what boris johnson was more detail, more flesh on the bones of what borisjohnson was a on sunday. we have had confirmation

this afternoon that he will also make a statement to the house of commons as well and therefore one would imagine take questions, whether in the chamber or virtually, from mps who want to ask him about strategy. dominic raab did refer to milestones in terms of what this road map will be so i suggest the suggestion will be that should the uk reach a certain position or england, because a lot of these decisions are devolved, then at that point, they could look to relax certain restrictions but he certainly didn't want to go into any detail today. continuing to try and not ramp up some of that discussion that there has been, some of those reports that there have been in the newspaper today. reaction coming in from the new labour leader sir keir starmer, who has been listening to that press briefing and he hasjust made a statement in the past few minutes. well, i think made a statement in the past few minutes. well, ithink the government is right to extend the lockdown, we support them in that.

there needs to be absolute clarity that we must all follow the rules and to lockdown is lifted. it doesn't mean we cannot discuss what comes next, but we have to follow those rules. have they been transparent enough about what comes next? well, we wait to hear what the coaching process on sunday and i'm glad he is going to begin to set out a plan. he should do it in a statement in the house of commons so he can be questioned, but i have been calling for a plan and it is good he is going to lay out a plan. nicola sturgeon says it is potentially catastrophic to ease the lockdown, do you agree with the first minister? i agree that the health and safety of the nation has to come first. therefore, we cannot lift these restrictions until we are clear the infection is under control. let's go back to jessica control. let's go back tojessica parker, a careful statement from sir keir starmer. i guess listening back to dominic raab, you talked about any changes that might be introduced next week or in the short term as

being modest and incremental, whatever is being reported in the newspapers, those headlines lockdown might be over is not a reliable guide, one wonders where those headlines have come from?” guide, one wonders where those headlines have come from? i think overnight, there was obviously these reports talking about what could happen on monday and there was some concern as to whether the wrong m essa g es we re concern as to whether the wrong messages were being out and over a sunny bank holiday weekend, whether people would feel as though the restrictions were gently being eased and start to go outside. one of the things you are talking about a moment ago is this crucial issue of the r rate and there is still great nervousness that if that r creaked above one, you could begin to see infection rates grow again. so i think you are right to say there has been criticism of some mixed m essa g es been criticism of some mixed messages and the welsh government today has said they were worried about those reports that they could send mixed messages because one of the concerns certainly in rural areas or beauty spots is that if people think they can start making those big car journeys people think they can start making those big carjourneys out to beauty

spots, you will see a lot of people pulling out of the cities and going to rural areas and you could see some transmission and serious pressure on local services. but overnight, we did hearfrom senior government sources that for example that stay message was going to be dropped this weekend and i think one of the reasons behind that was ministers have been quite struck by how successful the stay at her message has been, to some extent, you have seen businesses close that maybe didn't need to close and people stay at home and not going to work when they didn't need to and make a pact still go in and work safely and keep at a social distance. —— make an impact. think they want to start maybe nudging the economy a little bit back into some form of activity where it is possible. but certainly, dominic raab not wanting to be drawn on those specifics that have been talked about. but nicola sturgeon for example, she has extended the lockdown in scotland and we have had a readout from the first minister tea m a readout from the first minister team after she has had this call

with the prime minister and other leaders of devolved authorities this afternoon and she has said the lockdown is to continue and the only issue under consideration is in relation to outdoor exercise. we saw a lot of speculation about that in the newspapers because of this idea that whilst the virus can be transmitted everywhere, it is more likely to be transmitted and is more ofa likely to be transmitted and is more of a problem indoors rather than outdoors. but absolutely right to stress a ny outdoors. but absolutely right to stress any change is slow, incremental, gradual. many thanks, our political correspondentjess parker. the number of people held in immigration detention centres has dropped by two thirds during the coronavirus lockdown, leaving some facilities practically empty. figures shared with the bbc show that 738 foreign nationals were released between march 16th and april 21st, as the government rushed to answer concerns about the spread of infection. around 50 people are believed to have been deported over the same period. jon ironmonger reports. shouting

yarl‘s wood, 2018. without warning, guards arrive to deport a vulnerable woman who fled abuse in nigeria. she panics and is pinned to the floor for several minutes. for years, the treatment of foreign nationals facing removalfrom the uk has prompted calls for detention centres like yarl‘s wood to close. now, many are nearly empty. hi. hello, it'sjohn, are you ok? yes. the threat of coronavirus has cleared them out. so, that was one ofjust a few women left inside this centre after a case of covid—19 in march sparked panic, protest and the release of dozens of detainees in the space of a few weeks.

occupancy of the uk's nine immigration removal centres has steadily declined in recent years to around 1,300 by the start of 2020. but in five weeks, from march the 16th, it fell sharply to 368. now, charities are urging the government to go further. immigration removal centres are known to be harmful. there are cases of inhuman and degrading treatment, medical mistreatment is high, and there is an alternative in the community. 95% of the people comply with monitoring. why, then, would you continue with immigration removal centres? they've already released hundreds of people, they have shown shown that it's possible, they should get on and release the rest. it's believed most of those released have been returned to existing homes or found new ones. however, some claim to have left without any support. one detainee, who was released from brook house near gatwick last month, says there are others on bail who are being prevented

the home office said the vast majority of those left in detention were foreign national offenders and that it was right to protect the public from dangerous criminals. but with so few detainees, these draughty buildings will get harder to defend. everyone living on the isle of wight is being encouraged to download a new smartphone app designed to limit the spread of the virus. this morning, thejoint committee on human rights published a report which raises significant concerns regarding surveillance here's the chair of that committee, labour mp harriet

harman. well, this is an unprecedented gathering of people's personal data and it's necessary to have this information so the lockdown can be eased safely. but people won't sign up to this app unless they're confident that their data is being protected. and that confidence can be given if parliament passes a new law to actually say, what will be the purpose of this data gathering? to restrict any other use of the data, to define who can have access to the data and prohibit anyone else having access, and providing for it to be deleted at the end of this covid crisis. we gave the government new powers, on an emergency basis, to deal with the covid crisis. now parliament needs to pass a law to make new protections for people in the face of this unprecedented data gathering. that was labour mp harriet harman raising some of the concerns about the surveillance aspects of the coronavirus app.

in a moment, george alagiah will be here with the bbc news at six. but first, let's take a look at the weather, with tomasz. hello. well, for most of us so far, it's been a nice day out there today, and that's how it's going to stay for the rest of the day and into the evening hours. there is a chance of a few showers developing, though, in one or two places, but the vast majority of us will miss them. and in fact, we've had a little bit of rain already out towards the west and the south—west. these clouds spiralling into this area of low pressure that's parked just to the west of us. for the vast majority of the country, a fine, bright, if not sunny day. and temperatures — 22 this afternoon in london, and a pleasant 17 in the lowlands of scotland. so, here's the evening weather. watch out for the little blobs of blue showers developing here maybe across parts of the midlands. a few showers there out towards scotland, maybe northern ireland, and then towards the end of the night, the possibility of some rain reaching the far south—west of the country. but for most of us, it's a mild night, with clear spells,

perhaps turning murky and cloudy out towards the west. then on friday, the best of the sunshine will be out towards the east of england, east anglia, the south—east and along the south coast. but here, cornwall and devon, and parts of wales, then eventually the midlands, maybe in the north, are getting a few showers developing. a very warm day on friday. these are thejune, july temperatures. 24 in london, very pleasant again, 18 in glasgow. now, through the weekend, we're going to see some big changes going on in the air, especially across northern parts of the uk — at least, initially. and a cold front stretching from norway there across the sea, into northern scotland, out into the atlantic. see the cold northerly winds blowing out of the norwegian sea, spreading across scotland. this is cold arctic air. look how chilly it'll be saturday afternoon in central and northern scotland, whereas in the south, we still have those june/july—type temperatures. and through the course of saturday night into sunday, that cold, dense arctic air spreads slowly across the country like dense honey, all the way down to the south.

and then come sunday afternoon, we are all in that cold air mass. you can see the winds blowing, and they will be blowing hard, gusting 30, maybe even 40 miles an hour. so, it will feel very chilly in the shade, especially with that drop in the temperature. by day, we're talking around only 13 in london and single figures there along the north sea coast. that's it for me. bye— bye.

today at 6: a warning from the governor of the bank of england — we're heading for the worst economic downturn on record. from factory to warehouse this recession will be "unprecedented" — deeper than the great crash of 2008. the very sharp sort of downturn that we've had is really, of course, a product of the situation we've been in now since

march and the restrictions that are in place which affect, obviously, economic activity very severely. also tonight... the lockdown has been renewed, but are there changes on the way. are the infection rate has gone up and that is because of what's happening in care homes. even so, governments across the uk are looking at how to ease the lockdown — scotland's nicola sturgeon says she will not be pressured. the decisions we take now are a matter of life and death and that is why they weigh so very, very heavily and it's why they must be taken with great care. remember that emergency stock of protective gowns from turkey? turns out they don't meet our safety standards. the jobless new yorkers for whom the subway is the safest place to be — a nightime glimpse into america's coronavirus crisis. last post plays.