today at 6: a warning from the governor of the bank of england — we're heading for the worst economic downturn on record. from factory to warehouse this recession will be "unprecedented" — deeper than the great crash of 2008. the very sharp sort of downturn that we've had is really, of course, a product of the situation we've been in now since

march and the restrictions that are in place which affect, obviously, economic activity very severely. also tonight... the lockdown has been renewed, but are there changes on the way. are the infection rate has gone up and that is because of what's happening in care homes. even so, governments across the uk are looking at how to ease the lockdown — scotland's nicola sturgeon says she will not be pressured. the decisions we take now are a matter of life and death and that is why they weigh so very, very heavily and it's why they must be taken with great care. remember that emergency stock of protective gowns from turkey? turns out they don't meet our safety standards. the jobless new yorkers for whom the subway is the safest place to be — a nightime glimpse into america's coronavirus crisis. last post plays. the ve day anniversary

in the time of coronavirus — forget the cathedrals and palaces, we'll mark it in our homes and backyards. and coming up on bbc news, football returns to europe next week with germany's bundesliga set to become the first european league to restart since the beginning of the pandemic. good evening, and welcome to the bbc news at six. we all know that the coronavirus has hit the economy, but today the bank of england has spelt outjust how deep the recession is. we are heading for what the governor of the bank, andrew bailey, called an "unprecedented" downturn. just look at what

the bank thinks might happen this year: the economy is expected to contract by 14% — that's more than twice as bad as the great crash of 2008. the unemployment rate could double to 9% — though the bank thinks the economy will bounce back next year. and remember, all this after the untold suffering families have endured — we learnt today that the death toll today is 30,615. we'll be reporting on that and the lockdown later but first, here's our economics editor faisal islam. at east midlands airport, there may be no passenger planes right now, but cargo carries on. the pandemic means new patterns in the goods being traded back and forth as the world's major economies face recession. it's unfolding in front of our eyes, but at the end of the day, planes are still leaving certain origins and arriving at certain destinations. but it's somewhat more polarised around china

for the last two or three weeks. i can't predict the future, but what i would say is that business heals. and it will have to be resilient. the bank of england today sketching out that the pandemic and the shutdown have plunged the uk economy into the sharpest downturn in history — a far worse start to a recession than the financial crisis over a decade ago, than any recession ever, but with the hope of a rapid rebound. morning, governor. so quite different in shape to that last recession, says the governor of the bank of england. well, i think it is unprecedented in the history of this institution. i would say it's different in two respects. it's a much sharper downturn, so the initialfall is much more pronounced because the economy literally went into shutdown very quickly. the recovery is actually much faster because we believe that, you know, with the right measures in place from the public health side and the fact that it's supported by the very sensible things that the government has done, that economic activity can resume much more

quickly. given the uncertainty, this is not a formal forecast. there may be more than a glint of optimism here. never in the history of this institution have we seen it anticipate a recession quite so sharp. the hope is that the rebound will be almost as sharp into next year, but that is as much a matter for doctors and politicians as economists. but despite that economic damage, there's no pressure here for an instantaneous lifting of the lockdown. a second wave of the pandemic would notjust be deadly, it would imperil the much—hoped—for economic rebound. a recession this sharp hits workers hard. as you know, there's not really much job opportunities at the moment. jamalfrom hertfordshire just one example of how tough it is to find a job after losing his at an online retailer. i've been applying for pretty much anywhere, anywhere that i qualify for. and salary doesn't really matter.

so, previously, the wage i was on wasn't too bad, but i've been applying for minimum wage jobs. indeed, the bank of england sees unemployment more than doubling, up 1.5 million to rates not seen since the mid—1990s and taking two years to then fall back. people at home, they see that chart, it looks quite scary. the chart reflects the reality that we've been in now, you know, since march. where i think they should be reassured is that i can tell you both that the government and the bank of england have put in place a very big package of measures, and we will go on utterly focused on that. the wheels of the world economy are still turning, but they happen to be turning more slowly than we've seen in our lifetimes as a result of this pandemic crisis. the question is whether some of the changes we're seeing will last far longer. perhaps be permanent. and it may yet take some time for the economy to get to this new normal. faisal islam, bbc news.

faisal islam joins me now. the governor called an unprecedented downturn and begs the question what might things have looked like without the furloughs scheme? that was one of the important thing is, the centrality of that scheme, where the centrality of that scheme, where the government and extraordinary circumstances pays the wages of 6 million workers to the idea they would be a rapid rebound. the governor told me, interesting given under current plans it's due to be unwound from the start of next month. if you step back, a big question as to how you can reconcile the idea of these unprecedented, grim falls with the idea from some others that this is optimistic. i think you can because what we are seeing in terms of the fall is what has happened right now. the result of unprecedented shutdowns of the economy. what happens from here is much more up for grabs and the delay not just of economics much more up for grabs and the delay notjust of economics but how the government response, governments

around the world and also what happens in our labs with the spread of this virus. thank you very much. the prime minister has said that the government will "advance with maximum caution" when it comes to easing the lockdown. legally, the restrictions have been extended for another three weeks but behind the scenes the governments of the uk nations are all looking at what comes next, and on this there could be some divergence. in the last hour the foreign secretary, dominic raab, has acknowledged that different regions of the uk might proceed at different speeds. in scotland, first minister nicola sturgeon says she will not be pressured into acting too early — a matter of life and death as she put it. let's join our political editor laura kuenssberg. thank you. there is real, real tension here and not surprisingly so because politicians in every corner of the uk know what they decide in the coming days and weeks really will make a difference to people plasma health and also to the prosperity of the country. one of

the reasons why it is so fraught is not just because the reasons why it is so fraught is notjust because there are agonising trade—offs already but also because the rate of infection, how the disease is spread is of course different in different parts of the country. today, with the prime minister expected to outline how he sees a gradual way of this crisis, we have seen real tensions and a real dilemmas emerging at how those decisions will be made. peering into the new normal, a restau ra nt peering into the new normal, a restaurant ready for a day of deliveries instead of prepping for a busy thursday night. the prime minister because matt stay at home m essa 9 es minister because matt stay at home messages on the way out but they won't be customers at these chairs and tables in. as of yesterday we opened three restaurants to do is to ta ke opened three restaurants to do is to take when it's a massive learning curve. we are extremely worried but we're just trying to keep positive. but with the economy turning so negative, we have glimpses of

downing street's plan to start easing some restrictions very gradually from monday. the government has made keen to move on because cases have been falling and the crucial infection rate, the r number, is under one, the level where it could spread out of control. the r level is now between 0.5 and 0.9. the virus is not beaten yet. it remains deadly and infectious. until now, westminster and the other national governments have been more or less in step but listen to the first minister of scotland, plainly unhappy at the way number 10 scotland, plainly unhappy at the way numberio might plan scotland, plainly unhappy at the way number 10 might plan to move. scotland, plainly unhappy at the way number 10 might plan to movelj particularly strongly believe that for us to drop the clear well understood stay at home the message right now could be a potentially catastrophic mistake. it's not an exaggeration to say that the decisions we take now are a matter of life and death. you stood there at the same lectern time and time

again and said it would be wrong to talk about lifting any kind of restrictions because you might give people the wrong impression, yet isn't that exactly what the government risks doing now? there is no change in the rules today. what the prime minister will do is set out on sunday a road map that can look to the future and explain what steps will be taken at what moment in time and critically the evidence that will back it up. but how certain can the path be a head when the rate of infection could be going up the rate of infection could be going up because of what's happening in ca re up because of what's happening in care homes? r has probably gone up a little from the last estimate and thatis little from the last estimate and that is driven by the epidemic in ca re that is driven by the epidemic in care homes, he would say, and i would not demur from that. downing street has promised to keep the opposition in the loop, they want precision on what's going on. there needs to be absolute clarity that we must all follow the rules until lockdown is lifted. it doesn't mean we can't discuss what comes next but we can't discuss what comes next but we have to follow those rules. no surprise there is tension,

governments face the hardest of decisions. none is fraught as when schools should welcome more than just the kids of key workers. maybe as soon as next month in england but later elsewhere. we normally would be able to accommodate about 30 students. we will be splitting classes into about 15. this london secondary normally rings with the sound of 1200 pupils. one pupil at that desk, does that represent two metres? now buying disinfectant, dividing up classrooms, just as important as double maps. some pa rents important as double maps. some parents won't have confidence in sending their children in and i think it's incumbent on us to do what we can. all school leaders, to make sure the environment is as safe and secure as it possibly can be.“ only the changes to our lives would be as simple as bikes instead of football is in the playground. coronavirus makes strange and uncertain the shape of things to

come. laura kuenssberg, bbc news, westminster. so, how are each of the nations loooking at easing the lockdown. we'll hear from cardiff and belfast but let me start with you sarah in glasgow. just how different is the thinking there? the scottish government has com plete there? the scottish government has complete control over the lockdown restrictions here. as you heard in laura's report, nicola sturgeon is adamant it is too early to think about easing any of those restrictions, with the possible exception of how long people are allowed outdoors to exercise. that is because the rate of infection is slightly higher in scotland and the government think it would be positively dangerous to encourage people to start going back to work. nicola sturgeon says these are not party political decisions but it's pretty clear from what she had to say today that she is prepared to disagree publicly and privately with borisjohnson. she told him on the phone this afternoon she thought it would be a mistake to move away from that clear stay at home message. i'm told he didn't share any specifics about what he is planning to

announce on sunday with her. but if the uk government do want to stick with what's been known as the four nations approach, where all parts of the uk operate broadly similar rules, borisjohnson the uk operate broadly similar rules, boris johnson can't the uk operate broadly similar rules, borisjohnson can't go any faster in england and the three devolved nations are comfortable with. what about wales? the welsh government cabinet is meeting right now and i understand that they are preparing to sign off the welsh plan for how to come out of the lockdown. phase one at least. the details of that we are expecting to hear from the first minister mark drakeford tomorrow, to hear from the first minister mark dra keford tomorrow, two to hear from the first minister mark drakeford tomorrow, two days ahead of borisjohnson. he may well be giving us details and dates for what those first initial baby steps may be. so why go ahead of the prime minister? practical and political reasons. practical reasons, as in scotland, wales has control over its lockdown. this government also has to bear responsibility for the consequences of its decisions.

politics is at play, of course, this isa politics is at play, of course, this is a welsh labour government. we have seen over the course of this pandemic little moments where it has been prepared to point out differences, suggest wales on occasions has acted sooner or better than the administration in westminster. 0f than the administration in westminster. of course, the vast majority of changes will happen at the same time but expect to hear tomorrow that wales is may be moving slightly differently to the rest of the uk. and finally, emma? the first minister said northern ireland could decide to lift restrictions at a different pace from other parts of the uk ministers have discussed how to do that and one thing they agreed is face coverings could be used in places where social distancing is not possible, but we are not likely to see the rest of the road map agreed till next week. the tension has been the question over to what extent

they should be an all ireland approach with sinn fein the largest irish national party tending towards following dublin's plans and the democratic unionists tending to want to wait for boris johnson's announcement. a lot will depend on the uk chancellor and for how long he will continue funding the furloughed workers scheme. in the republic, there has been published a detailed plan for how restrictions will be lifted in a phased way, which begins on the 18th of may. northern ireland will have to have regard to what dublin and london is doing and plot its own course through that. thank you. the shortage of personal protective equipment for front—line healthworkers has at times reached crisis point. 0ne former government procurement adviser has told the bbc the whole sourcing process was like something out of the "wild west". and today we've learnt that the emergency shipment that

made the headlines a few weeks ago has been rejected because it's sub—standard. here's our health editor, hugh pym, reports. a new planeload of personal protective equipment arrived today at doncaster airport, 22 tonnes and 5 million items from china. it'll soon be on its way to the nhs and social care front line. supplies of ppe, as it's known, have run short at times. the government has promised more deliveries. the security of that supply can prove very challenging. but we are making progress there. and in fact today i can report that a very large consignment of ppe is due to arrive in the uk tomorrow. in fact, that turkish consignment of ppe arrived four days later, one of a series of deliveries of gowns for intensive care staff. now it's emerged they're still in a warehouse and at least some have not matched up to the required specifications.

the turkish supplier said it was in shock and had done itsjob with all the required certificates. it's not clear exactly what happened. 0ne expert told me the normal uk procurement process might‘ve been rushed. clearly corners are being cut because we're in the wild west for ppe supply. so, the normal processes and ways of doing things just aren't effective at the moment, so people are likely to try and cut corners frankly. in a letter last week, department of health officials told hospitals in england, "the global demand for ppe and other supplies is unprecedented. therefore it's vital that the uk government procures items nationally rather than individual nhs organisations compete with each other for the same supplies." i know that our members have raised this question of a letter telling them to simply rely on the national supply, and i think the reaction is, and it'll be compounded by the story of the turkish supplies, "well, actually, if we're managing

to access what we want locally, then we're going to stay and continue to do that." ppe shortages are still reported in some parts of the nhs, including this gp surgery. they say they haven't had enough from central nhs supplies and have had to go to builders merchants and diy stores. we've managed a few weeks ago to source a lot of supplies from builders' merchants, but those supplies have dried up. so, we're worried about ongoing supply issues. we're not going to have enough to last the summer and certainly not into the winter months. so, we do think it's something that needs to be addressed quite urgently. a government spokesperson said they were working night and day to source ppe internationally and domestically and more orders were lined up and expected from suppliers. hugh pym, bbc news. black men and women are nearly twice as likely to die with coronavirus as white people in england and wales — that's according to the office for national statistics. the research also found an increased risk of death

for people from bangladeshi, indian or mixed ethnicities. our community affairs correspondent rianna croxford reports on what lies behind these figures. richard died from coronavirus in hospital. the 72—year—old who came to the uk from ghana was described by his family as a loving, caring grandfather who put others before himself. he was a lovely man, he loved life. it was unbelievable and for a long time it felt like a dream. ifelti for a long time it felt like a dream. i felt i would wake up any moment and i am going to realise it was a moment and i am going to realise it wasa dream. moment and i am going to realise it was a dream. it is said coronavirus does not discriminate and we are all prone to catching it. data released shows the disease does not affect eve ryo ne shows the disease does not affect everyone equally. 0fficialfigures found richard was more likely to die of it because of his ethnicity. after stripping out factors such as age and sex and geography the

office for national statistics said that compared with white people in england and wales black people were 90% more likely to die from coronavirus with. .. but 90% more likely to die from coronavirus with... but there are limits to these figures which are based on the official government census that is almost ten years old and might not accurately reflect the current population and because ethnicity is not recorded on death certificates, it might be asked how the data is recorded. they say perhaps it can be explained by socioeconomic disadvantages but this does not alone provide the full answer. we are going to be guided by the evidence. we have updated evidence from sage and further evidence from sage and further evidence is coming through. families wa nt evidence is coming through. families want to know how to keep safe. it makes me very worried. we

have not been outside. richard is one a thousands from ethnic minority groups who have died. the review into the issue is under way with findings due at the end of this month. as we reported earlier, we're yet to see the full economic impact of the pandemic, but already some of the poorest families have been hit hard, especially in the coastal towns that are so dependent on tourism and hospitality. penzance in cornwall has seen one of the biggest falls in consumer spending. we first met the corams six months ago. one big family all living on the same estate. what a difference a lockdown makes. unable to meet up with most of her relatives, amanda is struggling. i can't cuddle my grandchildren, i can't see my kids. i didn't see my mum for the first time in 50 years on mother's day.

my kids are my life. and they are just round the corner? literally two minutes. it is not normal. we are human beings and i don't think i've ever realised how much we need other human beings. for now, the south—west of england might have escaped the worst of the virus itself, but the impact is still acute here. the corams are having to use a food bank for the first time. amanda had a job lined up for the summer season as a chef, but it has gone. there are no restaurants open. are they going to have the money to open back up after having all this time off? it is scary, isn't it? what are we going to do? there are not going to be jobs. we survive day by day. when we filmed last october, amanda's husband mike was working as a security guard. even though he suffers from a lung disease, he is still working full—time, because he is now the only breadwinner.

he is trying to be brave. this covid, it doesn't matter whether you have £1 million in the bank, or whether you have £20 in the bank, it is going to get you. it is going to get you and... that is the way it is. we cannot afford for him not to go to work. it is so scary, it frightens me to death. cornwall born and bred, the corams have long felt isolated from the rest of britain, and now they have new worries for this low—wage, seasonal economy. looking ahead, what are your fears about the knock—on effects? i mean, british airways having to lay off, well, if they are going to do it, what's the local cafe going to have to do? or the local ice cream shop, or... so it is affecting everybody. last autumn, their daughter lucy was working in a fish and chip restaurant. it's not nice, getting pulled away from everybody. now she has been furloughed. because she is still living at home, at least she can help out her parents.

but she worries how long government support will last. i chip in more than i can. i get my dad some food for work, for lunch. i've bought all the food for the house. bought us tea most nights. i miss you. i miss you both, too. for now, then, it will have to be video calls to the grandkids down the road. once this is over you can come to nanny‘s and have a party. but, despite the sadness, the sacrifices and their worries about the future, the corams say they still support the lockdown — for now. jon kay, bbc news, penzance. just two months ago, the jobless rate in the united states was at a 50—year low. but that was before the coronavirus pandemic ripped through the nation's economy. last week, 3 million more people applied for unemployment benefits. that means more than 33 million americans have becomejobless over the last seven weeks. nick bryant, who's in new york, has spent the night

on the city's subway — a refuge for the poor and the vulnerable. midnight on the new york subway and many of the city's homeless are bedding down for the night aboard its empty carriages. by day, the subway has become a virtual ghost train. by night, it has become a mobile shelter. in the first five carriages we went in, we found people in search of refuge and sleep. many are newly unemployed. some of them labourers who rent rooms by the week, unable now to pay their landlords. the covid dispossessed. a lot of homeless people are afraid to go to the shelters, because there are so many people there in such confined spaces. they are worried about catching the coronavirus. instead, they are taking their chances on the subway. the subway could hardly be described as safe.

more than 100 members of staff on new york's mass transit system have been killed by the coronavirus. this week, new york did something it has never done before — conducted a planned overnight shutdown of the subway system that has always operated around the clock. the aim is to disinfect the carriages, and so the nypd has been evicting the homeless. do you know they are closing the subway tonight? we are going to be asking you to get off the train. charity workers and city officials were on hand to offer help and shelter. but this woman had no idea where in the city she was. where are you staying tonight? do you have a shelter? the confusion and anxiety written across her face. the destitute have been amongst new york's most vulnerable. over the weekend, two homeless people were found dead on the subway. homeless people right

now in new york city have a 50% higher mortality rate from covid—19 than do housed new yorkers, so by not offering people something as simple as a hotel room where they can go and be safe and self—isolate, we are really relegating them to die. it can feel like we are living in another time of buddy can you spare me a dime? just as a face mask has become the global symbol of this viral contagion, queues have become the marker of this economic catastrophe. here, the wait was for lunch at a shelter in lower manhattan. but it's notjust the homeless any more who are hungry. it's the newlyjobless, as well. i have spoken with folks on this line who, at the beginning of march, were employed and now they are unemployed. they are trying to figure out how to make ends meet. part of how they are doing that is to stand on this line at the mission, pick up a to—go meal and make ends meet that way. back on the subway, the woman we saw turned down the offer of emergency shelter and took the last train back into manhattan.

0thers headed out into the night. poverty has been a propagator of this pandemic, hardship has been a super—spreader. and for many, the phrase that best describes new york's life abundant, the city that never sleeps, must now sound like a taunt. nick bryant, bbc news, new york. prince charles and the duchess of cornwall will lead the nation tomorrow in a two—minute silence to mark the 75th anniversary of ve day — when the second world war ended in europe. the day will be remembered across the uk, but with the country in lockdown they'll be very different from what was planned. daniela relph reports. forget the grandeur and the pageantry, in mirfield in west yorkshire, they are getting ready for their stay—at—home street party. as you can see, we have decorated our drives up.

we are going to tape the end of the drives off, so the kids are not tempted to go out of the drives. everybody will be of two metres distance. in radlett, in hertfordshire, there will also be a home—made feel to the ve day commemorations. instead of being subjected to a celebration, you are actually part of it, you are creating it. it is your celebration. i think it will be meaningful, yes. the aim had been to recreate the joy and optimism of 75 years ago. lockdown has prevented that and disappointed veterans. 0n ve day, i, along with many others, will be watching the proceedings on television. we should never forget ve day and we should never forget the sacrifice of all those people, those millions and millions of people, who gave their lives so we could live in freedom. but, at this hour,

when the dreadful shadow of war... like herfather in 1945, tomorrow night the queen will address the nation on this unique day of commemoration. of course, it is too soon to say how historians will remember it, but i hope that they will see it as a time when we reinvented or reimagined what pageantry, what remembrance and what commemoration could be. there will be a national sing—a—long tomorrow evening. 97—year—old iris is the oldest member of the rock choir. rehearsals with her choir leader michael have moved online and to her own garden in bromley. plays last post. and things have also changed for air cadet dan hill. instead of an event in the city of london, he has gone for something more intimate. i will be playing outside my house to keep the day significant