this is outside source on bbc news for viewers in the uk and around the world. we're covering all the latest coronavirus developments here in britain and globally. france is emerging from its lockdown on monday — although the capital paris will still face heavy restrictions. more than 33 million people have now filed for unemployment in the us. that means 1—in—5 workers have lost theirjobs since the world's biggest economy ground to a halt seven weeks ago. it is a much sharper downturn. so the initialfall is much more — perhaps because the economy

literally went into shutdown very quickly. seismic shocks to the uk economy, too. the bank of england warns the uk is heading for its worst economic downturn in history. black people in the uk are twice as likely to die from covid—19 than white people. we look at why. hello, i felt warm welcome to this edition of outside source. across europe, some countries are beginning to take tentative steps out of lockdown. france will start reopening from monday, gradually bringing two months of confinement to an end. the french government has issued this map. it's based on the spread of the virus and hospital admissions, which has helped inform its strategy. the country has been divided into red and green zones. the capital, paris and its surrounding areas, where infection rates are still too high is classified as a "red zone", and strict conditions will continue to apply there.

the french prime minister called it "a progressive unwinding" of the lockdown. translation: in light of the data from our health services gathered over the last few days, the gradual lifting of the lockdown can commence from next monday, 11 may. it's a new stage in the fight against the epidemic. it's good news for france and the french people. from monday, we will introduce a highly progressive process — lasting for several weeks at least — which will allow the country to exit smoothly and with certainty from the lockdown which we have experienced along with a large part of the world since 17 march. the paris metro is preparing for commuters to start using the service once again. workers have put up stickers in the capital's train stations to help enforce social distancing measures. let's hear what parisians make of the plans. translation: we already have five million passengers using the metro. i think we must really tell

parisians to be very careful, because there's going to be, i think, a lot of people. translation: what can i say? it will be a bit difficult because public transport in paris is often overcrowded, and people will have to go to work, so they have to be here. translation: listen, i don't know, honestly. i think it will pose problems for those people who have to work. but for me, it is a one—off. our correspondent hugh schofield has more from central france. what we have seen today is a final map, which is itself, a compendium of three different maps which look at different criteria about how the virus spreading and the capacity to test. the three criteria that the government have drawn, it's with red and green zones. the red zone is the northeast of france and the area around paris,

but also near the belgian border and towards the german border. that remains red and particularly areas to watch is the paris area because that is an area where the number of cases is going down, but there's still a lot of pressure and because it is the capital city, all eyes are going to be of the new movement and the new rules that have come into on monday. amid fears that things could take off in paris. the rest of the country is green, and the difference between green and red is pretty marginal. all of the country is going through this process of deconfinement on monday, but those in the red zones, some schools will not open. and some elementary schools, primary schools will open

you can see the difference between the red in the green zones is marginal. the big point is everyone will be moving on monday, and the keyissue will be moving on monday, and the key issue will be paris. here in the uk, plans are also being drawn up to begin relaxing the coronavirus lockdown in england. today we heard from foreign minister dominic raab that the total coronavirus death toll in the uk in all settings has risen to 30,615. this is after a further 539 people died, having testing positive. dominic raab said the r level, that's the rate of infection our political correspondent iain watson has been looking at what relaxing the lockdown in england might look like. this is a message from the government... one familiar feature of the lockdown will change this weekend. the government will modify it straightforward and successful "stay home" slogan. to help save lives, stay home. but ministers are stressing that any move to lift

the lockdown will be gradual. i'd really urge caution. the safest thing to do, at the moment, with this virus and the way it spreads, is wherever you can to stay home. yes, get out and get that daily exercise, and if you can't work from home and can work in safe circumstances then the guidelines are there for that very purpose. but we have got to continue on the process that we have had that we are doing everything that we can to ensure people's safety. the prime minister told the commons that there could be some changes to the restrictions in england from monday, and one of the most likely alterations is to expand the range of outdoor activities that are allowed, so instead of simply exercising, you might be able to lounge around in the sunshine, but the key message from the government is this — keep your distance, stay two metres apart, otherwise your new—found freedom could be short—lived. england and scotland have been working to keep their lockdown restrictions in step, but today scotland's first minister warned that changing the stay

at home messaging at this point could be a catastrophic mistake. we asked the leader of the opposition in westminster, sir keir starmer, what his view is. nicola sturgeon says it is potentially catastrophic to ease the lockdown. do you agree with the first mr? i agree that the health and safety of the nation has to come first, and therefore we cannot lift these restrictions until we are clear that the restriction is —— infection is under control. not only are there health concerns around relaxing the uk lockdown, there are economic ones as well. today the bank of england warned of an "unprecedented" recession that hasn't been seen before. the bank predicts the uk economy will fall by 30% in the first half of this year due to the impact of coronavirus. but the bank thinks the economy will bounce back. our economics editor faisal islam has been speaking to the governor. i think it is unprecedented in the history of this institution. i would say it is different in two respects. it is a much sharper downturn.

so the initialfall is much more — the economy literally went into shutdown very quickly. the recovery is actually much faster, because we believe that with the right measures in place from the public health side, and the fact that it is supported by the very sensible things that the government has done, that economic activity can resume much more quickly. given the uncertainty, this is not a formal forecast. there given the uncertainty, this is not a formalforecast. there may be more ofa formalforecast. there may be more of a glint of optimism here. never in the history of this institution have we seen it anticipate a recession quite so sharp. the hope is that the rebound will be almost as sharp into next year — but that is as much a matter for doctors and politicians as economists. but despite the economic damage, there's no pressure here for instantaneous lifting of the lockdown, a second wave of the pandemic were notjust be deadly, it would be imperiled the

economic rebound. while the decision to relax the lockdown is about public health, it is also about the economy, as our uk political correspondent rob watson explains. i think the first thing to say, kasia, is this will not be some dramatic change in the lockdown. the government has been incredibly careful to signal, to lower expectations. i think the phrase that the first secretary of state, the foreign secretary used at the downing street press conference was, "any changes would be modest, small, and incremental." and as to what they're doing, what's driving this — in many ways, it's the same that every country faces, in the absence of a vaccine or cure, how do you balance trying to stop your health system being utterly overwhelmed? and i would say that the government in the uk is still erring more on the side of worrying about health, worrying about the threat of the uk's national health care system. but of course, it's also

seeing what it can do to somewhat ease restrictions. a new study has revealed that men from an afro—caribbean background are four times more likely to die with covid—i9 in england and wales, than white people. there are similar disparities with women, as the head of health analysis for the ons explains. the black ethnic group is now about 90% — or 1.9 times — more likely to die from covid—related issues. bangladeshi and pakistani males are about 80% more likely, females about 60% more likely. and indian females are about 40% more likely, and males about 30% more likely — once we've adjusted for all those factors. one possible reason for the disparity is the large number of ethnic minorities working in the health sector. here's the chair of the association of pakistani physicians and surgeons in the uk, dr abdul hafeez. obviously we are quite concerned

in terms of the figures which specifically are showing the health staff. obviously the bame staff makes about 44% of the nhs total workforce, and 72% of the people who actually died, the medical staff, are actually from bame community. this is a startling, you know, discrepancy between the asian and the black ethnic populations, compared to the white local population. here's more from rob watson on how the government has responded. the figure is, you are four times more likely to die if you are black. but if you take in the socioeconomic factors — in other words, the kind ofjob you're doing, the kind of housing you live in. if you are poorer, then the number goes down to about half — in other words, you'll be twice

as likely to die. all those other factors being set aside, and the government doesn't know why. so when you ask, "what is the government doing?" i mean, it has sent the health authorities to try to discover this. beyond issues of poverty, the kind ofjob you do, working in the health sector, working in public transport, what on earth is the explanation for a higher risk rate amongst black and ethnic minorities? and at the moment, this government simply doesn't have an answer. our thanks to rob watson for talking us our thanks to rob watson for talking us through that. the toll of coronavirus on the world's biggest economy has been immense. latestjob figures out of the us show another 3.2 million americans have filed for unemployment benefit this week. this means 33 million people, or one—in—five workers in america, have lost their jobs since the lockdown brought the us economy to a standstill seven weeks ago. it's a massive turn in events. two months ago, america was boasting an unemployment rate of only 3.5%, its lowest in 50 years.

economists fear that figure could reach 15% or even higher. the question has turned to this — top us economist mohamed a el—erian tweets, "how quickly do the unemployed get jobs? how many drop out of the labour force? what happens to hourly earnings?" well, unemployment figures for april come out on thursday, which is likely to bring more grim news — as katty kay explains. speculation is that it will be up 14-1596. speculation is that it will be up 14-15%. that is speculation is that it will be up 14—15%. that is similar to the great depression of the 1920s. a huge blow to the american economy. and what is happening is you are right, states are opening around the country, around half of american states are now starting to reopen businesses, but all the indications so far from state to open a couple weeks ago is that consumers aren't going back to businesses. so the governments in those states

is saying they think it is safe to start opening with all the restrictions, but consumers are saying, "we don't feel safe going to restaurants or hairdressers, or nail salons." so people are not starting to generate income, therefore people are not being employed again. what is interesting is that a poll has come out in the last couple days suggesting that most american workers who have been laid off do feel that they have a strong chance of being rehired once the country is fully open again. the idea of, is this a v—shaped recovery? was there a precipitous drop, then a precipitous climb up again? that is what the white house is hoping for, but quite a lot of health experts and economists and business leaders i've been speaking for the are a bit more sceptical about that. stay right there because i also want to touch upon another development coming from the united states. new research has linked infections in new york city before social distancing began to outbreaks across america. not experts at yale tracked mutations of the virus, the history

of infected people, and they came up with this. new york was the primary source of new infections, taking the virus from the city to the southern states and even as far as the west coast. in these new york times graphics show more detail. the infections linked to new york city are those highlighted in red, while the viruses that spread from washington are highlighted in yellow. and here are the outbreaks in those southern states. as you can see, every sample taken from louisiana was related to new york. and here, you have the northeastern states most linked to new york. so let's get katty kay back. given the numbers in new york, no huge surprise. it is a real eye—opener when it comes to the timings of social distancing being brought in. yes, and also about how this virus spread from big cities. we've seen this around the world, so wuhan and china, milan and it easily became

the focus points from which the rest of the country got infected. dust milan in italy. we thought this would be a virus that comes into the united states from china via washington state, then spread around this country. what this new york times reporting shows us is that actually it came from china originally, then through europe, then european flights that came into new york city during the months of january through march. then those people travelled all around the country from new york city, taking the virus with them. and the implication of this reporting is that by the time the president stopped those flights and people coming from europe on 13 march, by then, this report says it was already too late. the virus was already too late. the virus was already in new york city and travelling all across the country. i think it is an interesting report for policymakers to look at as the country for policymakers to look at as the cou ntry starts for policymakers to look at as the country starts reopening, because it isa country starts reopening, because it is a reminder that this is a country of 50 states and people can move freely from one state to another. they took the virus freely from new

york state to other states around the country. if we reopen in some places become a hot spot, there is a risk that people could travel across the border into another state quite freely without a passport or any restrictions. and again, they could ta ke restrictions. and again, they could take the virus across the country again. yes, the applications are huge. moving away briefly from the coronavirus, the usjustice department has just announced it is dropping the case against donald trump ozment former security adviser, michael flynn. now tom trump says he is very for him. remind us about this case —— donald trump? so the case of michael flynn was one of the biggest cases surrounding the robert muller investigation into whether the trump campaign had unlawful contacts with russia during the 2016 election campaign. and michael flynn had been having contacts with the russian ambassador to the united states and other restaurant officials, and he didn't tell the white house about it, and he also lied to the fbi about it. in 2017, mr flynn actually

admitted lying to the fbi. he had been donald trump's national security adviser, he was fired as the national security adviser, he was caught up in the robert miller investigation, he admitted in 2017 that he lied to the fbi about his contacts during the campaign, and he pleaded guilty to that. even so, the justice department is saying that they feel that mr flynn didn't fully understand what the fbi was asking him, and that's why they've decided to drop this case. it seems quite political, general flynn was a favourite of donald trump is met, and donald trump today was caught describing him as a boy or, saying he felt he had been on wrongfully charged in the first place. —— warrior. a big win for the white house and donald trump, and the politics of the muller investigation still rippling through the election process here in the states. many

thanks to katty kay for bringing us all those topics from the united states. stay with us on oustide source. still to come: we'll tell you why pakistan is lifting its lockdown — even though infections there are rising. a chemical plant in india has begun leaking toxic gas again, after a previous leak killed 13 people and hospitalised hundreds. the area around the factory in andhra pradesh has once again been evacuated. woken up by toxic gas in the air, people stumbled out onto the streets in panic. some waited for help to arrive. some rushed those seriously ill to hospital any way they could. among those affected, children. more than 1,000 families live near the factory where the leak occurred in the dead of night. hundreds are in hospital, some in critical condition. rescue personnel went door—to—door

looking for anyone who had fallen unconscious at home. authorities also worked to contain the leak. south korea's lg chem says it's looking into how the leak occurred. its factory was just opening up after the lockdown for the coronavirus crisis. this is outside source, live from the bbc newsroom. france is emerging from its lockdown on monday — although the capital paris will still face heavy restrictions. every country is responding to covid—19 in a different way — and so we are seeing a range of approaches playing out in parallel. ros atkins has been looking at this for us — here he is. one important factor of this pandemic is that all the countries are facing the same virus, but they are all handling it in quite a different way. so we are going to look at this through the prism of brazil, india and, first, pakistan,

because pakistan is now easing its lockdown this weekend. bear in mind, most countries are doing this only once their infection rates are falling. not so pakistan — the number of cases continue to go up there, but the prime minister, imran khan, saying the lockdown has to ease because of the large number of people who just can't afford to continue living like this. let's hear from the bbc‘s pakistan correspondent, secunder kermani. initially, in the country, there were fairly strict restrictions in place. then, last month, a number of industries and some small businesses were allowed to open up again. and now, pretty much all small shops and businesses will be allowed to reopen. although, shopping malls will remain closed, as will schools and universities, and there remains a ban on public transport. now, i think this was done for a couple of reasons — one of which is that when these lockdown restrictions were initially

partially eased last month, it caused a little bit of confusion in some areas, and some shops that technically weren't meant to be opening up againjust opened up again anyway, and it seemed a little tricky for the authorities to force these other small businesses to remain closed, but also, it ties in with an issue that the prime minister has been talking about from the outset of this crisis, which is that he says the poorest sections of pakistani society, around 25% of the country living below the poverty line, simply cannot afford not to work. let's move from pakistan to india, it started to repatriate hundreds of thousands of its citizens who have been stranded. india has been stopping and coming passenger flights for recent weeks, but it is now organising planes and ships to get these people home. the first plane left dubai today, the bbc‘s sameer hashmi is there. they will be carrying 350

indian citizens back home. now, this is the first flight, the first evacuation of the first repatriation that is happening from this part of the world. and if you talk about the uae, 200,000 indians alone have registered to get repatriated. now the indian government has said that they will be flying out 15,000 people across the globe in the next one week, and then they are looking at 200,000 indians, which are spread across the world, stranded in different parts, in different countries over the next few days. and a huge section of those indians are actually stranded here in this country. now, to brazil. its number of cases is rising fast, it's now reached over 125,000 confirmed cases and over 8,000 deaths. president bolsonaro is refusing to introduce a lockdown, so some state governors simply aren't waiting for him. they've started to close businesses, schools and public spaces anyway. well, the bbc‘s south america correspondent, katie watson,

has spoken to the governor in charge of the country's wealthiest states, that's sao paulo, this is a memo to former ally of the president, but has no imposed restrictions, here's why. it's amazing when you have two virus to come back, the coronavirus and the bolsonaro virus. this is not a moment for politics. this this is a moment to protect people and to give to those people the opportunity to survive. he would argue that he is looking after the economy, that people die of hunger, people die of misery, people die with no jobs. to have a good economy, we have to have people alive. we cannot put the economy first, and health as the second decision. so that's the latest from brazil, pakistan and india. as we are seeing across each edition of outside source at the moment, while historians in years to come will no doubt be able to draw broad conclusions about this global pandemic,

at the moment, we need to keep looking at this story country by country, as each experience is proving very different. and if you want more evidence of that, you will find extensive global coverage of the pandemic be of the bbc news website, bbc.com/news, or people can download the bbc news app straight to their smartphone. yes, they absolutely can, and if they want to find out more about the clock that is behind you, they should check out your twitter thread on social media, because some fascinating insight into exactly what that is about. i won't spoil it though. no spoilers. ros, as always come i thank you so much. if you do check that thread out, you will see ros atkins with long hair, which is really worth it. before we go, here are people all across the uk showing their appreciation for health workers. let's have a look. applause. this is the weekly occurrence on a

thursday at 8pm local time, where everybody comes out onto the streets, socially distant, and shows their appreciation of all of our key workers. hello. well, it was a fine, sunny day across most of the uk today. a couple of showers popped up here and there, but on the whole a clear evening and a clear night, and more on the way tomorrow. another warm and sunny day in store for the majority of the country. now, here's the satellite picture. it's not completely clear out there because low pressure is parked just to the west of us and it is meandering out there, with clouds circling around its centre. and some of these clouds are sort of brushing western parts of the uk, so that does mean that, through the night and then early into friday morning, there will be some clouds affecting coastlines around the west here, perhaps some rain from time to time — one or two locations, for example, cornwall, maybe devon, perhaps western parts of scotland. but on the whole, many central and eastern parts of the country

are in for a clear start to friday and a mild one, too. temperatures will be around ten degrees in some of the bigger towns and cities. on friday, it will be cloudy from time to time across western areas. there will be a few showers around, and some of those showers that might actually develop a little bit further east, around central areas of the uk. a very warm day on friday, july temperatures in the south east, 2a degrees. but in the north of the country, a little bit fresher, around 18 degrees. pleasant enough. the weekend is going to bring some big changes, particularly to northern britain. or initially, at least. this is saturday's weather forecast. a cold front is expected to sweep in from the north. cold northerly winds setting in, a spell of rain there are scotland. to the south, sunny spells with a few showers. but it's the temperature contrast that will be the story on saturday. ten degrees in aberdeen, 18 in newcastle and 2a in london, so quite a contrast. and then that cold, dense air from the north sweeps in through the course of saturday night into sunday.

and you can see by sunday, the cold air has reached southern parts of the uk. i say cold air relatively speaking, because after all, it is may. it does tend to be a little bit warmer. this is going to feel a lot colder than normal because we'll have screaming winds blowing out of the north sea. it will feel particularly chilly on the coast of yorkshire, east anglia, windy in the south east as well. really strong, cold, gusty winds and a really big temperature drop as well, and it looks as though it will stay chilly into monday, tuesday and wednesday.

fergus, laura, just like to introduce you to the rock royalty that would go to speak to it later on in this newscast. brian may. hello, how you doing? i'm doing ok kind of a bit of an injury to some of my muscles. which i sustained in the garden. i can't walk i can't sleep at the moment. really? oh no. apart from that you're fine. apart from that i'm great. excellent. get well soon and we will speak to you at length about what you're doing to raise money for the world health organisation felt up i got was the who is in the moon out there who was that we can clear all that up in a minute. thank you forjoining us. we won't get filled again, will