britain is heading for the worst economic downturn on record, the sharpest contraction for 300 years, warns the bank of england. trying to get the economy moving again in what will be an unprecedented recession, much worse than the great crash of 2008 it's a much sharper downturn so the initialfall is much more because the economy literally went into shutdown very quickly. lockdown continues — any changes in england next week will be modest and very carefully monitored, says the government, as apparent differences emerge with the rest of the uk. the decisions we take now are a matter of life and death and that is why they weigh so very, very heavily, and it is why they must be taken with great care. more than 200,000 protective gowns flown in from turkey —

the government demands a refund after they're deemed not good enough for nhs use. the jobless new yorkers for whom the subway is the safest place to be. a nightime glimpse into america's coronavirus crisis, with more than 33 million now unemployed. and tomorrow marks the 75th anniversary of victory in europe — but there'll be no crowds on the streets to mark it this year. and coming up on sportsday on bbc news... football returns to europe next week with germany's bundesliga set to become the first european league to restart since the pandemic began. good evening. the bank of england has warned that the british economy is heading for an unprecedented recession. it says the economy is on course for the sharpest annual contraction

for 300 years, with the coronavirus epidemic dramatically reducing jobs and incomes. the governor of the bank of england said the economy is expected to contract by 14% — that's more than double what happened during the great crash of 2008. the unemployment rate could double to 9%, though the bank thinks the economy will bounce back next year. today the death toll from coronavirus rose again — 30,615 have lost their lives in the past eight weeks. more on that and the lockdown in a moment but first here's our economics editor, faisal islam. at east midlands airport there may be no passenger planes right now, but cargo carries on. the pandemic means new patterns in the goods being traded back and forth as the world's major economies face recession. coronavirus per se hasn't taken shipments out of our network, but the quarantine and lockdown and people working at home and factories being closed has. i can't predict the future

but what i would say is that business heals. and it will have to be resilient, the bank of england today sketching out that the pandemic and the shutdown have plunged the uk economy into the sharpest downturn in history, a far worse start to a recession than the financial crisis over a decade ago, than any recession ever, but with the hope of a rapid rebound. morning, governor. so quite different in shape to that last recession says the governor of the bank of england. i think it is unprecedented in the history of this institution. i would say it's different in two respects. it's a much sharper downturn, so the initialfall is much more because the economy literally went into shutdown very quickly. the recovery is actually much faster because we believe that with the right measures in place on the public health side, and the fact that it is supported by the very sensible things that the government has done, that economic activity can resume much more quickly.

given the uncertainty, this is not a formal forecast, there may be more than a glint of optimism here. never in the history of this institution have we seen it anticipate a recession quite so sharp. the hope is that the rebound will be almost as sharp into next year, but that is as much a matter for doctors and politicians as economists. but despite the economic damage, there is no pressure here for instantaneous lifting of the lockdown. a second wave of the pandemic would notjust be deadly, it would imperil the much hoped for economic rebound. a recession this sharp hits workers hard. there are not much job opportunities at the moment. jamalfrom hertfordshire just one example of how tough it is to find a job after losing his at an online retailer. i've been applying to pretty much anywhere, anywhere that i qualify for. salary, doesn't really matter. previously my wage wasn't too bad, but i've been applying for minimum wage jobs.

indeed, the bank of england sees unemployment more than doubling, up 1.5 million, rates not seen since the mid—1990s, and taking two years to then fall back. people at home, they see that chart, it looks quite scary. the chart reflects the reality that we have been in now since march. where i think they should be reassured is that i can tell you that both the government and the bank of england have put in place a very big package of measures and we will go on utterly focused on that. the wheels of the world economy are still turning, but they happen to be turning more slowly than we've seen in our lifetimes as a result of this pandemic crisis. the question is whether some of the changes we are seeing will last far longer, perhaps be permanent. it may yet take some time for the economy to get to this new normal. 0ur economics editor

faisal islam joins me now. the idea that the economy could bounce back next year is seen as optimistic by some. yes, we are using the word sharpest to describe this recession because it describes just how rapid the speed of the fall is at the beginning. it does not necessarily mean it will be prolonged. we just necessarily mean it will be prolonged. wejust do not necessarily mean it will be prolonged. we just do not know at the moment. 0ne prolonged. we just do not know at the moment. one of the reasons the bank of england is reporting a bounce back is the likes of extraordinary government action, paying the wages of millions of workers. he specifically said that was one of the reasons. that is interesting because it is due to be unwound at the end of next month. if you take a step back, how can it be that you have this grim and unprecedented full and at the same time people saying it is optimistic. what we have had so far is the full and it is obvious around us with closed restaurants, closed everything. what goes from now on is

still up for grabs. it is notjust dependent on what happens in shopping centres or in factories, or on market trading floors. it is as dependent on what happens in government and in our laboratories where the scientists could find a vaccine, for example. the prime minister prepares the nation on sunday, outlining the next stages of lockdown and any plans to ease it. he says the government will "advance with maximum caution". legally, the restrictions have been extended for another three weeks but behind the scenes the governments of the uk nations are all looking at what comes next and on this there could be some divergence. in scotland first minister nicola sturgeon says she will not be pressured into acting too early, it was a matter of life and death as she put it. here's our political editor laura kuenssberg. peering into the new normal, a restaurant ready for a day of deliveries instead of prepping for a busy thursday night. the prime minister's "stay at home" message is on the way out,

but there won't be customers at these chairs and tables soon. we've had to shut down 15 restaurants. so it's had a massive impact on us. as of yesterday, we've opened three restaurants to just do takeaway. it's a massive learning curve. we are extremely worried, but we're just trying to keep positive. but with the economy turning so negative, we've had glimpses of downing street's plan to start easing some restrictions very gradually from monday. the government's keen to move on because cases have been falling and the crucial infection rates, the r number, is under one, the level where it could spread out of control. the r level which signifies the rate of infection is now between 0.5 and 0.9. the virus is not beaten yet. it remains deadly and infectious. until now, westminster and the other national governments have been more or less in step. but listen to the first minister

of scotland, plainly unhappy at the way number ten might plan to move. i particularly strongly believe that for us to drop the clear, well understood stay at home message right now could be a potentially catastrophic mistake. it's not an exaggeration to say that the decisions we take now are a matter of life and death. you stood there at that same lectern time after time and said that it would be wrong to talk about lifting any kind of restrictions because you might give people the wrong impression. yet isn't that exactly what the government risks doing now? there is no change in the rules today. what the prime minister will do is set out on sunday a road map that can look to the future and explain what steps will be taken at what moment in time and critically, the evidence that will back it up. but how certain can the path be ahead when the rate of infection could be going up because of what's happening in care homes? the number has probably gone up a bit from his last estimates

and that is driven by the epidemic in care homes, he would say. and i would not demur from that. downing street's promised to keep the opposition in the loop. they want precision on what's going on. there needs to be absolute clarity that we must all follow the rules until lockdown is lifted. it doesn't mean we can't discuss what comes next, but we have to follow those rules. no surprise that there's tension. governments face the hardest of decisions, none as fraught as when schools should welcome more than just the kids of key workers. maybe as soon as next month in england, but later elsewhere. we normally would be able to accommodate about 30 students. we'll be splitting classes into about 15. this london secondary normally rings with the sound of 1,200 pupils. one student at that desk. does that represent two metres? now buying disinfectant, dividing up classrooms just as important as double maths.

some parents won't to have confidence in sending their children in, and i think it's incumbent on us to do what we can, all school leaders, to make sure that the environment is as safe and secure as it possibly can be. if only the changes to our lives would be as simple as bikes instead of footballs in a playground. coronavirus makes strange and uncertain the shape of things to come. laura kuenssberg, bbc news, westminster. so how are each of the nations looking at easing the lockdown? we'll hear from cardiff and belfast in a moment, but let me start with you, sarah in glasgow. the scottish government have com plete the scottish government have complete control of the lockdown restrictions here. as you heard in that report, nicola sturgeon is adamant it is not safe to ease any of those restrictions here at the moment, with the possible exception of allowing people to go out doors

for exercise a bit more. that is because the infection rate may be slightly higher in scotland and the scottish government think it would be positively dangerous to start encouraging people to go back to work anytime soon. nicola sturgeon says these decisions are absolutely not party political or ideological in any way, but she is perfectly happy to disagree with boris johnson, both in public and in private. she told him on the phone this afternoon that she thinks it is imperative to stick to the stay—at—home message for now. i am told he did not share any specific details with her of what he is planning to announce on sunday. it is obvious if westminster to stick with the four nations approach, where all parts of the uk operate broadly similar rules, borisjohnson will not be able to go any faster in england than the devolved nations are comfortable with. felicity evans is in cardiff, and plans being outlined tomorrow there. that is right. but the welsh labour

government is in a difficult position in deciding whether or not to diverge from the english approach to diverge from the english approach to easing the lockdown. like the scottish government, they have got com plete scottish government, they have got complete control over what to do next, but unlike scotland geography is not on their side. the welsh— english border is very densely populated. millions of people live within 25 miles of it on either side. you can imagine the difficulties with messaging or enforceability if wales and england had different rules on travel law and exercise. despite that, the welsh first minister, mark dra keford, wa nts welsh first minister, mark dra keford, wants to take welsh first minister, mark drakeford, wants to take an incredibly cautious approach to all of this. his big focus is not taking any risk that the reproduction rate in wales will rise at all. but, as you say, we will find out the details tomorrow when he makes his statement. emma vardy, in belfast, water the plants likely to be there? ministers have been discussing all

week here how to lift restrictions. previously the first minister, arlene foster, said restrictions might be lifted in northern ireland ata might be lifted in northern ireland at a different pace to other parts of the uk. they have agreed face coverings will be used in some form as part of this plan, but we will not get to see the full road map they have decided on until next week. the political tension for northern ireland through all of this has been over the question of how much they should be an all ireland approach to this with sinn fein, the largest irish nationalist party leading towards wanting to follow dublin's plans, and the democratic unionists tending to want to wait for borisjohnson‘s unionists tending to want to wait for boris johnson's announcement. but a big factor will be for how long the uk chancellor decides to keep funding the furloughed workers' scheme. in the republic of ireland there has already been a very detailed five—point plan published about how restrictions will be lifted there, starting on the 18th of may. northern ireland will have

to have one eye on what london is doing, one eye on what dublin is doing, one eye on what dublin is doing, and to chart its own course through that. thank you all. the shortage of personal protective equipment for front—line healthworkers has at times reached crisis point. 0ne former government procurement adviser has told the bbc the whole sourcing process was like something out of the "wild west". today we've learnt that some of the emergency shipment from a company in turkey that made the headlines a few weeks ago was rejected because it's sub—standard. our health editor, hugh pym, reports. a new planeload of personal protective equipment arrives today at doncaster airport, 22 tonnes and five million items from china. it'll soon be on its way to the nhs and social care front line. supplies of ppe have run low at times. the government in recent weeks has promised more deliveries. the security of that supply can prove very challenging,

but we are making progress there, and in fact, today i can report that a very large consignment of ppe is due to arrive in the uk tomorrow. in fact, that turkish consignment arrived four days later, with gowns for intensive care staff. it's now emerged that they're still in warehouses. some haven't met required specifications. others are still being tested. the turkish company said the fabric was certified and they had done theirjob with all the required certificates. 0ne expert told me the normal uk procurement process might have been rushed. clearly, corners are being cut because we're in the wild west for ppe supply. so the normal processes and ways of doing things just aren't effective at the moment. so people are having to try and cut corners, frankly. the consignment was flown to the uk by the raf. tonight it's been announced that the turkish government stepped

in to provide tens of thousands of gowns and coveralls when it was clear that there were issues with the private supplier. in a letter last week, department of health officials told hospitals in england: "the global demand for ppe and other supplies is unprecedented. therefore, it's vital that the uk procures items nationally rather than individual nhs organisations compete with each other for the same supplies". i know that our members have raised this question of a letter telling them to simply rely on the national supply, and i think the reaction is, and it will be compounded by the story of the turkish supplies, well, actually, if we're managing to access what we want locally, then we're going to stay and continue to do that. ppe shortages are still reported in some parts of the nhs, including this gp‘s surgery. they say they haven't had enough from central nhs supplies and have had to go to builders' merchants and diy stores. we managed a few weeks ago to source a lot of supplies from builders' merchants,

but those supplies have dried up, so we're worried about ongoing supply issues. we're not going to have enough to last the summer and certainly not into the winter months. so we do think it's something that needs to be addressed quite urgently. a government spokesperson said they were working to source ppe internationally and domestically, and more orders were lined up and expected. hugh pym, bbc news. black men and women are nearly twice as likely to die with coronavirus as white people in england and wales — that's according to the office for national statistics. the research also found an increased risk of death for people from bangladeshi, indian or mixed ethnicities. rianna croxford reports on what lies behind these figures. he was a very lovely man. he was veryjolly, he loved life. richard died from coronavirus in hospital last month. the 72—year—old, who came to the uk from ghana, was described by his daughter as a loving, caring father who always put

others before himself. it was unbelievable. for a long time, it felt like it wasn't real, like a dream. i kept thinking, "i'm going to wake up at any moment and i'm going to realise it was alljust a dream". it's said that coronavirus doesn't discriminate, we're all prone to catching it. but data released today shows that the disease doesn't affect everyone equally. new official figures have found that richard was more likely to die from coronavirus because of his ethnicity. after stripping out factors like age, sex and geography, the office for national statistics found that compared with white people in england and wales, black people were 90% more likely to die if they became seriously ill with covid—19. this is slightly lower for people from bangladeshi and pakistani backgrounds at around 60—80%, while people of indian heritage were around 30—a0% more likely to die from the disease. but there are limits to these figures. they're based on the official government census, which is now

nearly ten years old, and so may not accurately reflect the current population. and because ethnicity isn't being recorded on death certificates, there may also be gaps in how this data is being recorded. the study also doesn't account for job roles. but research has shown that black and asian people are more likely to be key workers in industries like health care, where many front line workers have died. there are persistent inequalities across a range of areas, and that includes health, housing, education, employment, criminaljustice. and these build up a complex picture for people in those communities. today the government wouldn't say whether more protective advice would be given to ethnic minority communities. we're going to be guided by the evidence. we've had updated evidence from sage. there's further evidence that is coming through. we obviously have to take those decisions at the right moment in time. but families like joy's want to know how to keep safe. it does make me very worried. we haven't been outside at all.

even my nine—year—old child, i could just about get him into the garden, he's so afraid of going outside now. the government is currently investigating the issue, with its findings expected at the end of this month. richard's family hope answers come soon. rianna croxford, bbc news. the full economic impact of this pandemic won't be clearfor sometime yet, but already some of the poorest families have been hit hard, especially in the coastal towns that are so dependent on tourism and hospitality. penzance in cornwall has seen one of the biggest falls in consumer spending — down 69% since the lockdown started. jon kay has been talking to a family living on one of the most deprived estates in the country. we first met the corams six months ago, one big family all living on the same estate. what a difference a lockdown makes. unable to meet up with most of her relatives, amanda is struggling.

i can't cuddle my grandchildren, i can't see my kids. i didn't see my mum for the first time in 50 years on mother's day. my kids are my life. and they are just round the corner? literally two minutes. it is not normal. we are human beings and i don't think i've ever realised how much we need other human beings. for now, the south—west of england might have escaped the worst of the virus itself, but the impact is still acute here. the corams are having to use a food bank for the first time. amanda had a job lined up for the summer season as a chef, but it has gone. there are no restaurants open. are they going to have the money to open back up after having all this time off? it is scary, isn't it? what are we going to do? there are not going to be jobs. we survive day by day. when we filmed last october, amanda's husband mike was working

as a security guard. even though he suffers from a lung disease, he is still working full—time, because he is now the only breadwinner. he is trying to be brave. this covid, it doesn't matter whether you have £1 million in the bank, or whether you have £20 in the bank, it is going to get you. it is going to get you and... that is the way it is. we can‘ afford for him not to go to work. it's so scary, it frightens me to death. cornwall born and bred, the corams have long felt isolated from the rest of britain, and now they have new worries for this low—wage, seasonal economy. looking ahead, what are your fears about the knock—on effects? i mean, british airways having to lay off, well, if they're going to do it, what's the local cafe going to have to do? or the local ice cream shop, or... so it is affecting everybody. last autumn, their daughter lucy was working in a fish and chip restaurant.

it's not nice, getting pulled away from everybody. now she has been furloughed. because she's still living at home, at least she can help out her parents. but she worries how long government support will last. i chip in more than i can. i get my dad some food for work, for lunch. i've bought all the food for the house. bought us tea most nights. i miss you. i miss you guys too. for now, then, it will have to be video calls to the grandkids down the road. once this is over, you can come to nanny‘s and have a party. but, despite the sadness, the sacrifices and their worries about the future, the corams say they still support the lockdown — for now. jon kay, bbc news, penzance. more than 33 million americans have lost their jobs in the past seven weeks alone — that's roughly one in five of the workforce.

it is a devastating turnaround for a country whose jobless rate was at a 50—year lowjust eight weeks ago. nick bryant, who's in new york, has spent the night on the city's subway — a refuge for the poor and the vulnerable. midnight on the new york subway, and many of the city's homeless are bedding down for the night aboard its empty carriages. by day, the subway has become a virtual ghost train. by night, it's become a mobile shelter. in the first five carriages we went in, we found people in search of refuge and sleep. many are newly unemployed, some of them labourers who rent rooms by the week, unable now to pay their landlords. the covid dispossessed. a lot of homeless people are afraid to go to the shelters because there are so many people there in such confined spaces. they're worried about catching the coronavirus. instead, they're taking

their chances on the subway. the subway could hardly be described as safe. more than 100 members of staff on new york's mass transit system have been killed by the coronavirus. this week, new york did something it's never done before — conducted a planned overnight shutdown of a subway system that's always operated around the clock. the aim is to disinfect the carriages, and so the nypd has been evicting the homeless. do you know they're closing the subway tonight? we're going to be asking you to get off the train. charity workers and city officials were on hand to offer help and shelter. but this woman had no idea where in the city she was. where are you staying tonight? do you have a shelter? the confusion and anxiety written across her face. the destitute have been amongst new york's most vulnerable. over the weekend, two

homeless people were found dead on the subway. homeless people right now in new york city have a 50% higher mortality rate from covid—19 than do housed new yorkers, so by not offering people something as simple as a hotel room where they can go and be safe and self—isolate, we're really relegating them to die. it can feel like we're living in another time of buddy can you spare me a dime? and just as the face mask has become the global symbol of this viral contagion, queues have become the marker of this economic catastrophe. here, the wait was for lunch at a shelter in lower manhattan. but it's notjust the homeless any more who are hungry. it's the newlyjobless, as well. i have spoken with folks on this line who, at the beginning of march, were employed and now they're unemployed. they're trying to figure out how to make ends meet. part of how they're doing that is to stand on this line at the bowery mission, pick up a to—go meal and make ends meet that way.

back on the subway, the woman we saw turned down the offer of emergency shelter and took the last train back into manhattan. 0thers headed out into the night. poverty has been a propagator of this pandemic, hardship has been a super—spreader. and for many, the phrase that best describes new york's life abundant, "the city that never sleeps", must now sound like a taunt. nick bryant, bbc news, new york. france will begin lifting what has been one of the harshest lockdowns in europe from monday. most businesses will reopen and people will be allowed to leave home without carrying a permit. but the country is being colour—coded, with some areas like paris having to wait longer than others for restrictions to be lifted. lucy williamson is in paris. so how is this going to work?

well, france is going to be divided into two colour—coded zones, red and green. here in paris on the regions of the north, south and east, it's going to be read. that is where the virus is circulating. it is where the hospitals have seen more than 80% of their intensive care beds filled with the coronavirus patients. 0n filled with the coronavirus patients. on monday, when the lockdown patients. on monday, when the lockd own starts patients. on monday, when the lockdown starts to lift, you won't see many big differences between the two zones. primary schools and shops will open across the country, or at least they will start to, and people will be able to move freely up to 60 miles from their homes. but it's over the next few weeks that divisions could start to appear. you have got middle schools opening in the green zone is only and possibly inafew the green zone is only and possibly in a few weeks' time, even cafes, bars and restaurants. the prime minister said he didn't want to think about a two speed france, but it could be, depending on what happens in the next few weeks, but thatis happens in the next few weeks, but that is where this plan is heading. lucy, thank you.

hundreds of people in the indian state of andhra pradesh have been taken to hospital after inhaling a gas that leaked from a chemical plant. at least 11 people died as a result of the incident at a polystyrene factory in the port city of visakha patnam. the facility, owned by the south korean conglomerate lg, was being re—opened after the coronavirus lockdown. for the seventh week in a row, millions of people have turned out on to streets acrss the uk to clap for nhs workers, carers and keyworkers. hywel griffiths has been speaking to one man who has more reason than most to be thankful. every week, we share this moment. in gratitude or grief, it gives us a way to be together. for danny in port talbot, it's heartfelt. the nhs saved his life. after eight days in a coma, he came through treatment for coronavirus. when he became the hospital's first covid patient to leave intensive care, it was the staff applauding him. i can't praise them enough.