hello and welcome to dateline london. i'm carrie gracie. this weekend, europe marks the 75th anniversary of the end of world war two on european soil. lockdown, grieving and economic paralysis weren't part of the original plan for celebrations. a lot of fighting talk has been deployed in relation to covid—19 and a lot of talk about solidarity too. but are there real lessons on fighting or solidarity that the descendants of the second world war generation could teach us now? my guests, on socially distanced screens, are guardian columnist nesrine malik, and henry chu of the la times. welcome to both of you.

and here in the studio, observing the two—metre rule, the bbc‘sjo coburn, who presents the politics live programme. nesrine, the uk this past week has reached a grim distinction of being the european country with the highest death toll. how did we get here? there is a short history and a long history of how we got here. the short history is the months and more recently weeks of indecision and paralysis on the part of the uk government that came to their lockdown decisions and even their quarantine decisions extremely late and way behind the curve, but there isa and way behind the curve, but there is a longer history as well which is, i think, a decade at least of austerity that has made it quite ha rd austerity that has made it quite hard for the nhs to cope, privatisation of care homes which means that they have just been allowed to descend into the jaws of the virus without much assistance

from the government, and so, it's a combination of indecision on the pa rt combination of indecision on the part of this quiet new government that was very oriented towards brexit but then had to deal with a real practical issue, like the pandemic but also the defunding and hollowing out of public services in the uk meant that the country wasn't well prepared. 10, you spend all your time looking at uk politics how much of a problem is it that the uk has the worth death toll in europe, orare has the worth death toll in europe, or are there effective defences and is the country united in solidarity around lockdown and how to get out of this mess? it is a problem because it is a large number. the government keeps saying every day, when it shows that chart, and it compares the uk deaths from the mid—19 to compares the uk deaths from the mid—19toa compares the uk deaths from the mid—19 to a whole range of other european countries, and also the united states —— from cobit 19,

european countries, and also the united states —— from cobit19, it says that it is too early to make clear and accurate international comparisons. it says that you cannot compare apples and pears, and has two lines of defence, if you like. one is about how deaths are actually counted. the uk government will say that it has been very transparent about how it is counted, it is counted in hospitals, care homes and the community. when it looks at a country like italy, italy also says that as part of its official figures it counts deaths in care homes. the question the government poses is how extensive has testing been in those ca re extensive has testing been in those care homes in order tojudge what the death rate has been? there is also some doubt about deaths in the community. some of these are also problems in the uk. it is not that easy to count deaths in the community because if you haven't been tested you don't know perhaps that you might have died of covid—19. so, looking at that, they put those figures in terms of how

everyone is counting them on one side, and with that, they would like to focus to be on what they call excess to focus to be on what they call excess mortality rate. can they escape the verdict that we have heard from nesrine? they cannot escape that that is the highest death toll in europe as we stand here today but what they would say is that that is not the full picture. so that picture that nesrine offered of being a bit slow, a bit incompetent, can they escape that? they will deny the charge that they were too slow to lockdown, to get testing going at the sort of pace it is now but we know from borisjohnson's pace it is now but we know from boris johnson's appearance at prime minister's questions in the houses of parliament this week, he admitted ina rather of parliament this week, he admitted in a rather long answer that they had to abandon the track and tracing mechanism in about mid march because the ukjust mechanism in about mid march because the uk just didn't mechanism in about mid march because the ukjust didn't have the capacity, and actually, when you look at those graphs, look at those

other countries, it is very hard to get away from the fact that germany is the standout country, and there is the standout country, and there is and has been praise from ministers here saying, well, they have a very flourishing diagnostics industry, and you can have a deep discussion about why we don't have that to the same degree. they will say that the rate of transmission at the end of march was such that widespread tracing and tracking in the community wouldn't have been worth it. now, they want to go back to that because infection rates are falling. they haven't quite fallen far enough. the other real brews, and weak point for the government, is on care homes. and the epidemic in care homes, which the government has struggled to get a grip of, deaths are rising, as they are coming down in hospitals, they are still rising in care homes, and i think the charge there is a much more potent one. let's go from the medical dimension to the economic

one, bringing in henry. the other huge headline of the past week is that we are facing in the uk the biggest recession in 300 years, and the partial recovery that the bank of england talks about is dependent ona of england talks about is dependent on a lot of factors. indeed. these headlines that invoke history have become commonplace, that we are meeting challenges or seeing economic output drops that we have not seen in centuries. it is the job of the government and the bank of england to make forecasts to try to model the way ahead, and they are doing that but it is predicated on unknowns that are part of the uncharted waters we are already in with this pandemic, about whether the lockdown can actually be eased injune, buti the lockdown can actually be eased injune, but i don't know if it actually knows how to predict human behaviour is, because the lockdown can be eased, but whether we ourselves as individuals want to make the choice of going out again to bars and restaurants, doing the

activities that we as social creatures tend to do, or to shy away from that because of the continued fear of contraction is anyone's guess, so fear of contraction is anyone's guess, so this model and forecast that the bank of england has seen that the bank of england has seen that by the second half of next year the british economy will have re cove red, the british economy will have recovered, it will have got back on the same footing it was before the pandemic broke out, it is in a sense anyone's guess. took us through the personality of the prime minister. just back to work after his almost fatal brush with the virus, new father, etc, how much is all of the challenges falling on one man's shoulders? we have a system of collective responsibility. he is first among equals. but when he was ill, in hospital, in intensive care, there was a sense, may be perceived, may be real that no major decisions

or change to the lockdown, and it would have been too early anyway, could be made without the prime minister being at his desk. there might have been a holding pattern. everything was functioning back to some extent nothing would change that dramatically until he was back at his desk at number ten. there has beena at his desk at number ten. there has been a huge debate about, is he a changed man from his experiences in terms of his approach to easing lockdown, to the sort of country we will be economically, as henry was just talking about? those sorts of thoughts and principles are now perhaps not quite as gung ho as people might have assumed somebody with a personality or boris johnson would actually approach and pursue. really, all of the information that we are getting, far from going to any major change, when he gives his address to the nation, i think these are going to be very incremental changes. the government is obsessed with what they call the reproductive

r rate of transmission which has to be below one. they say that we are following the science, following the guidance of the experts but, in the end, although there is not a trade—off as they would seek between the economy and lives, it is lives versus lives, they've got to keep that reproduction rate below one before they can do anything substantial in terms of easing lockdown, because they do not want a second peak. that is what they are trying to avoid behind anything else, and making sure that the nhs is not overwhelmed, that there will still be spare capacity which they would point to another line of defence in terms of how they have handled this crisis is that it has not been overwhelmed, so boris johnson has this momentous decision to make about when, it is about messaging too, by the way. henry is right. people are fearful, maybe not about going to the park, but about going on transport systems and back

to work and sending their kids to school, and he has got tojudge that moment. nesrine i want to hear from you before we leave the uk, on how you before we leave the uk, on how you see this shaping up over the next couple of months. like henry said, it is anybody‘s guess, but what is going to be interesting is the new attitude the government has. they went from not taking it very seriously at all to taking it extremely seriously, and trying to play catch up, so the essence, there was a measure announced that there is going to be quarantine of travellers coming into the uk for two weeks. this is essentially two months behind everyone else. the airports are still open. what i think is going to happen over the next two months, is that things that should have happened weeks and weeks ago will start happening over the next few weeks, which means that

there will be a two tier pandemic response, one where people are going to be trying to find ways to come out of the lockdown, and in other insta nces, out of the lockdown, and in other instances, trying to plug all the gaps that were left by the delayed reaction to— three months ago. henry, let's broaden this out to the united states, six months away from a presidential election, the biggest death count in the world in the us. and we have got a jobless count which is worse than at any time since the 1930s now. what on earth can president trump do with that as he faces a battle with the virus, a battle with an economy in such trouble and a battle with a democratic rival? there is no question this pandemic has completely appended politics going into the november election both for trump but for his senators, republicans who are trying to ride on his coat—tails, this is all been

scrambled by coronavirus. trump won the election in 2016 based on his promise to revive what was actually a pretty fine humming economy at the time and before the pandemic hit unemployment was 3.5%, it was at an historic low, but now we have seen that unemployment has gone to 20.5 millionjobs lost, it is at that unemployment has gone to 20.5 million jobs lost, it is at the that unemployment has gone to 20.5 millionjobs lost, it is at the rate of 14.7% and these are not the number somebody wants to have going into heavy campaigning that lies ahead. so that is why we see in beginning to encourage states to try to open up, even at the cost potentially of lives that will be taken potentially of lives that will be ta ken by potentially of lives that will be taken by the coronavirus. his strategy, as all presidents have, this is not unique to him, has been to deflect blame and find other valinski can place the blame on, whether it is china, the who, the democrats, that is all part of the political game, but he has put

himself on a wartime footing, calling himself a wartime president. that is well and good except for the fa ct that is well and good except for the fact that he opens himself to criticism from those who would say are you not a wartime president who underestimated the strength of this enemy, who downplayed it, who said that the enemy would be vanquished by april one and people would be back to their normal lives? this is all going to come back to haunt him in the months ahead. now he saying that it in the months ahead. now he saying thatitis in the months ahead. now he saying that it is the worst attack since pearl harbor, using that second world war language. that way he can drape himself in a rally round the flag atmosphere, which there is in the us and here in the uk as well, everybody wants to pull together for national welfare, but again, everybody wants to pull together for nationalwelfare, but again, he exposes himself to criticism as being the commander—in—chief in this global struggle, international struggle, to how well he has performed and whether he has pursued a battle plan that is resulting in more deaths than were necessary.

nesrine, on the point about the economy, president trump says the jobs will be back. will they? again, i'm not in the business of making predictions. it is anybody‘s guess. it is hard to imagine that happening. there was a good way of describing what is happening right now which is that the pandemic is an urban forest fire. we hear about small businesses being closed down and people being furloughed, but these business outs are the result of years and years of financial engineering and loans and hard work. so to assume that this infrastructure of self—employment to small businesses, through to large businesses, we'll just small businesses, through to large businesses, we'lljust like a flat pack be put back together after the pandemic is really unrealistic. what we might see is a reshaping of the economy so that some areas that were underutilised before might flourish.

like henry said, we don't know how people will behave. maybe there will bea people will behave. maybe there will be a huge renaissance of going on holiday because people have been locked down so long. there might be a leisure and hospitality boom afterwards. but it is all contingent on how humans behave, how much assistance businesses get and the third isjust assistance businesses get and the third is just consumption. everything hinges on consumption and consumerism and people spending money. if that happens really slowly ina money. if that happens really slowly in a staggered fashion, jobs are not going to come back overnight. which is like the conversation we were having about the uk. henry? this is another danger point for trump in the sense that those who have been put out of work by the pandemic in the hospitality industry and others are not necessarily those who are most aligned with his base. they include a lot of blue—collar workers. they are not the fortunate

ones were all they have to do to continue working is to have a laptop and a strong wi—fi connection. the blue—collar workers have been suffering. they will be watching to see how the economy comes back and whether trump is at the forefront of that. henry, i wanted whether trump is at the forefront of that. henry, iwanted to whether trump is at the forefront of that. henry, i wanted to pick up on something you said about looking for billions to blame. president trump and his secretary of state have spoken about evidence that the virus started or spread from a laboratory in wuhan. we don't have an enormous amount of time to talk about that. the chinese have said they didn't. why doesn't he put this to rest by inviting the who to organise a big international investigation and investigate it to the roots, and just have done with it? that is why a tiger doesn't change its stripes. this is not a regime that invites outside scrutiny on its own soil. it is now aggressively batting back any

narrative that says it was in the wrong, on how it handled this pandemic, trying to really control the story that is out there, saying that what they did was absolutely correct and it is what equip the re st of correct and it is what equip the rest of the world to take proper measures. if the rest of the world had heeded what china had done. they are not going to allow what they would see as politically motivated investigators onto chinese soil to check out highly sensitive area such as this virology institute in wuhan. that isjust not in the nature of this regime. picking up on other things that are not in the nature of ourtimes, it is things that are not in the nature of our times, it is hard enough to modify chinese behaviour when the west of the international community is united, but if it is this united and without clear leadership, what chances do you see? not much. what is clear so far is that no one has

managed to resist politicising this virus. it has succumbed to not only domestic national politics but international politics as well. it has fallen in between a sort of us— china beef, it is being utilised by strongmen in africa and the middle east and it has also become a way to frame the virus as something exogenous. this is one of the things that trump is doing an borisjohnson is doing in the uk. this is why the world war ii language is helpful because this is something that either has been brought in by foreigners, or it is an external enemy. so, the language around the virus, the language used around how the virus came to us, has been either to frame it as the fault of otherforeigners, who either to frame it as the fault of other foreigners, who have either to frame it as the fault of otherforeigners, who have come in, orframed it otherforeigners, who have come in, or framed it as a otherforeigners, who have come in, orframed it as a kind of

otherforeigners, who have come in, or framed it as a kind of act of god that we can do nothing about. i don't see any solidarity at all in the near future and don't see any solidarity at all in the nearfuture and if don't see any solidarity at all in the near future and if anything, don't see any solidarity at all in the nearfuture and if anything, it is going to be used to drive more populist politics domestically and more wedges between countries where there was already existing conflict before. jo, the european union is talking about an investigation, the australians. boris johnson talking about an investigation, the australians. borisjohnson has a number of challenges on his plate but the difficult first exit challenge, how do you square the bold new trade partnerships with china against issues like this? bold new trade partnerships with china against issues like thi57m will be fascinating to see how the borisjohnson will be fascinating to see how the boris johnson government deals, will be fascinating to see how the borisjohnson government deals, in terms of its relationship between the uk and china. picking up on what nesrine and henry have said about this is the language. some of the

rhetoric from conservative politicians particularly, and also, you have to remember, it wasn't that long ago when david cameron and george osborne and theresa may were embracing china. they wanted to embed and entrench diplomatic and economic ties with china. now, of course, the pandemic is here. we are in the middle of it but even before covering had broken out across europe, there was already a suspicion from a small but significant group of conservative politicians who didn't like the idea at all. in fact they were absolutely opposed to the idea that the chinese telecoms giant huawei would be involved in any way in the five 6 network here. that was a headache but it was outvoted and to some extent they were rumblings, if you like, on conservative backbenchers, but now you have the foreign secretary saying things like it will

not be business as usual china. we have another senior conservative politician saying, actually, there may be a reckoning. there has been a china research group set up to look ata china research group set up to look at a reset of relations between the uk and china. i would add a little bit of caution. this is rhetoric. these are words. they are not actions, yet. it may turn out to be so, if there is this investigation and, interestingly, you mentioned the sort of post brexit world. they have got this dilemma, the uk government, because there will be a different relationship with the eu. can they really afford to shun china in any shape, sense or form, when they are going to try to have to navigate their way between the us and china. they want china to remain and china. they want china to remain an international player. they want them to be part of the international scene. so they may have to watch their tone a little bit, if they wa nt their tone a little bit, if they want to think about our

post—economic relationship when trade may be very difficult and actually not very certain, depending on what happens with the coronavirus pandemic. another challenge in the entry. nesrine, you're talking to us from cairo. we haven't spoken about north africa very much on this programme over the course of the virus. give us an insight into how egypt is coping and north africa is coping. it is really interesting. the story in africa as a whole has been really interesting. when the pandemic started, there was a lot of —— fearand pandemic started, there was a lot of —— fear and legitimate concern that the continent would be overwhelmed and the countries of the south would be overwhelmed. there are very few ventilators, medical and health capacity is very poor on the continent. my own country of sudan has such a small number of ventilators and they circulate around the country, but what

happened was a pre—emptive shutdown. if you compare what happened in places like egypt and in africa in general, they shut down way earlier. airports were shut down, curfews, police and troops on the street making sure that people are not violating the curfew, and that came from a position of extreme caution, because the authorities knew that the health care systems could not withstand the coronavirus pandemic explosion. but what has happened is that, it looks like, fingers crossed, that cases have been relatively, if you compare them to europe, relatively small and the peaks of the pandemic across the continent have also been relatively flat. now, that's not to say that there have not been hundreds and thousands of deaths all over the continent and the south in general, but there does not seem to be, going

down the route that people expected when it first started. now, the downside of that is that most of these countries have authoritarian presidents, authoritarian systems that mean that people can be sort of subordinated into submission. none of this kind of pesky democratic consensus making that there is in the uk or the us, but it does seem that, overall, the attitude was responsible. it was pre—emptive, and it was really cautious. south africa in particular has been a standout case in this regard, and how quickly they scrambled and moved when the pandemic struck. that is a fascinating insight. we will have to leave that thought. we have a minute left in which i want to do what i promised the audience we would do at the start, which is to look at what lessons we have to learn from the second world war generation. henry, can you start as off? i think it is that they could get through and

national and international calamity and i'm most impressed with the fact that, after they did so, they felt it was a time that they could reset the terms of their society. it wasn't about winning the war but about also winning the peace and deciding what kind of nation britain would be thereafter, which created a national health service that saved the live of the prime minister sol would hope that, after this, the british work at their society and decide what kind of new footing they wa nt decide what kind of new footing they want to be on. nesrine, i thought from you? it is always a flawed exercise to say what would the world war ii generation have done? but in one sentence. i think we are all in lockdown, everyone has been agreed that they cannot go out and do their thing that they like to do, but the salient details to remember that there was a time when nation suffered for four and five years,

and we can get through a few months. following on from that, it is a strange juxtaposition, the idea that we had ve day, we are in lockdown, and there was a sense of wanting to celebrate and commemorate and that, while in lockdown, there was a view, finally, that we could sit out at the front of the house, see our neighbours, there was a slightly party —like atmosphere, maybe it is inappropriate, but all of a sudden you could see people beyond your own family and dear work colleagues face to face at two metres distance, and that was actually quite joyous. happy note to end on. thank you all three. and thanks to you for watching. that is it for this week. back next week, same place, same time. stay safe, goodbye.

hello there. 0ur weekend is definitely a tale of two halves, with the best of the sunshine and the warmth reserved for today. take a look at shropshire earlier on, not a cloud in the sky. just as beautiful but a little more threatening across the highlands, with some dark leaden skies. there was quite a lot of cloud in scotland and it's producing some rain today as well. this is the satellite picture where the thick cloud is sitting to the north. not much in the way of cloud across much of england and wales, that's where the best of the sunshine and the warmth is going to be today. some of that rain to the north—west of the great glen will be quite heavy as well through the day and the winds are strengthening as well. some sharp showers breaking out in one or two spots but dodge the showers, keep the sunshine, and temperatures peaking between 22 and 2a celsius. that's the mid 70s in

terms of fahrenheit. but the colder air sitting into the far north will sink its way steadily south through the night tonight, perhaps not arriving to the extreme south until later on into sunday but it will feel different. that rain pushes its way out of scotland into the north of england and northern ireland by dawn on sunday morning, weakening a little. behind it, some wintry showers. so we could have a dusting of snow anywhere above 100 metres. with temperatures into the low single figures. you will probably wonder what all the fuss is about across england and wales first thing in the morning. a relatively mild start with some sunshine. but as that weak weather front sinks south, a band of cloud and a little bit of patchy rain and colder air arrives as well. it's notjust the source of the wind, it's its strength, too. a cold northerly flow gusting in excess of 30—a0 mph really will take the edge off of the feel of the weather. for many, temperatures down

a good 10—13 celsius in comparison to today, along exposed maximum ofjust between six and eight celsius, even in london we are looking at 13. gardeners and growers, take note. sunday night into monday morning, with clear skies we could wake up to a frost. and that is going to be a bit of an issue for those tender spring plants. things stay relatively quiet but on the cool side as we go into the next week. winds are likely to ease through the middle part of the week. not that much significant rain, mostly dry, but frosty nights with the winds slowly easing. take care.

this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. uk—based airlines say they've been told the british government is planning a 14—day quarantine for air passengers arriving in the country. the new restriction is expected to take effect at the end of this month. a lot of airports now are closed for passenger traffic. there are very few flights coming in, and that means no revenue, so we are really having to adjust and see our way through. russia marks the 75th anniversary of the end of world war ii, but without the planned red square parade of soldiers and veterans.